Aether Analytics Technical Conspectus April 25,2014
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Transcript of Aether Analytics Technical Conspectus April 25,2014
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ther Analytics Weekly Technical Conspectus publ ish date : 4/25/2014
Author : Alex Bernal, CMT
805.252.7161
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DISCLAIMER
reliable, but no representation is made by us that such information is accurate or complete. The views
expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do
not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.
This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not
constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or otherwise. Investments involve substantial risk,
and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their
own investment decisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific
circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are denominated in foreign
currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about
past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future
performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.
To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event
any information, commentary, analysis, options, advice and / or recommendations in the report prove to
be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.
The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the
public, clients, prospective clients, colleagues and other participants in the global capital markets. You
may use the information provided at your own risk.
No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In
no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be
held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without
limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information
contained herein.
Report Details
Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included.
Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening
If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis
Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or email alex@aetheranalytics. Com
User Guide Download Link > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf
Table of Contents
Section 1 : Quick Table Summary
Quick Glance Table
Current Trade Setups
Section 2 : Currencies
AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
EURCAD
EURGBP
EURJPY
EURNZD
EURTRY
EURUSD
GBPAUD
GBPCAD
GBPJPY
GBPNZD
HKDJPY
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDHKD
USDJPY
USDMXN
USDSGD
USDTRY
Section 3 : Energy Complex
WTI Crude
Brent Crude
Section 4 : Financials
10 Year T Note
30 Year T Bond
Ultra Bond
Section 5 : Indices
SP 500
Nasdaq 100
Russell 2000
DJIA
VIX VXX VXZ
Nikkei
Shanghai
Heng Seng
Jakarta
Section 6 : Metals
Gold
Silver
http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf -
Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level
Recommended Entry
Price
Current Stops Targets Quick Note Time Frame
AUDCAD Sell stop to entry 1.01 1/2 @ 1.04, 1/2 @ 1.05 0.99 & 0.96 Bearish butterfly pattern. Possible wave 3 of 5 so I would suggest 3/4 of normal position size if traded. Daily &
Weekly
AUDJPY Entry 95.00 Triggered 1/2 @ 97.14 , 1/2 @ 97.41 (1) 93-92, (2) 89 -87 Trade is Live. Daily
AUDNZD Fractals Exist but pattern rank is not high enough for trade suggestions.
AUDUSD Entry 0.935 Triggered 1/2 @ 0.947, 1/2 @ 0.94 91 & 88 Trade is Live Daily
EURAUD Entry 1.488 Triggered 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.5948 minimum Trade is Live Weekly
EURCAD Possible Bearish Reciprocal AB = CD
EURGBP Possible Three Drives Reversal Pattern
EURJPY Clearly tracing out a corrective symmetrical triangle pattern. Breakout targets (150 or 134) long term
EURNZD Buy Stop Triggered 1.605 1/2 @ 1.58, 1/2 @ 1.576 1.64 & 1.70 Trade is live. Daily
EURTRY ABC corrective type structure. Slight upside bias. No trade suggestions currently
EURUSD Sell stop entry 1.367 1/2 @ 1.415, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.24 Large Scale primary Gartley reversal pattern identified. Weekly scale Trade PRZ not Met yet. Weekly
GBPAUD Small scale bullish crab reversal
GBPCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias.
GBPJPY No tradable patterns. Downside bias
GBPNZD Entry Triggered 1.953 1/2 @ 1.92 1/2 @ 1.915 2.00 2.03, LT 2.10 Trade is Live Daily
HKDJPY No tradable patterns. No bias
NZDJPY Sell stop entry 86.00 1/2 @ 92.98, 1/2 @ 93.99 78 & 70 High ranking symmetry 5 wave EW pattern with Bearish Harmonic within Wave 4 and 5. Great trade setup Weekly
NZDUSD Entry triggered 0.864 1/2 @ 0.88. 1/2 @ 0.87 0.876 & 0.86 Trade is Live Daily
USDCAD Possible bearish crab
USDHKD No tradable patterns. Downside bias
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Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level
Recommended En-
try Price
Current Stop Targets Quick Note Time Frame
USDJPY No tradable patterns.
USDMXN Potential Bullish Gartley, Pattern rank is too low to suggest trade.
USDSGD Potential Bullish Bat, PRZ Not Reached Yet
USDTRY No tradable patterns.
WTI CRUDE Entry Triggered 102.58 1/2 @ 105.21, 1/2 @ 104.00 99 & 94 Trade is Live Daily
BRENT CRUDE Very complex pattern, no trade suggested.
GOLD Weekly Possible bullish crown pattern.
SILVER Buy stop entry 20.00 1/2 @ 18.51, 1/2 @ 18.90 22 & 24 Possible Bullish Bat, PRZ reached. Looking for a move through 20 to trigger buy stop to entry Daily
10 YEAR NOTE Bullish Bat Reversal confirmed, Minor Bearish cypher caused reversal. No trade Recommended
30 YEAR BOND Buy stop entry 135.16 131.16 142.16 Reverse Head and Shoulders breaking out, Small long trade suggested Weekly
SP500 No tradable patterns.
NASDAQ 100 No tradable patterns
RUSSELL 2000 Possible Bullish Bat. Confirmed reversal. No Trade Recommended
DJIA No tradable patterns.
VIX VXX VXZ No tradable patterns.
NIKKEI No tradable patterns. Downside bias
SHANG HAI INDEX Sell stop entry 2185 1/2 @ 2225, 1/2 @ 2201 1980 Trade is Live Daily
HENG SENG No tradable patterns. No bias
JAKARTA Sell stop entry 4704 1/2 @ 4151, 1/2 @ 5209 4000 ENTRY WAS NOT TRIGGERED YET. TRADE IS LIVE
BOMBAY SENSEX No tradable patterns. Upside bias
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Forex
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AUDCAD - Daily Extended Butterfly setting up here. Clear impulse wave up from January low. One could easily fit this wave structure as a po ssible wave 3 of 5 up secondary
wave. I believe its still worth considering for a harmonic trade setup. We have a nice price / momentum divergence on the las t up wave. Suggested sell stop to entry level is 1.016.
Stop levels if triggered would be 1.0491 for 1/2 and 10452 for the remaining 1/2. Possible targets are .99 and .96.
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AUDCAD - Weekly On the weekly scale the pattern is even more convincing for a reversal here. We have a really nice ABC retracement pattern wi thin the Gartley pattern.
AUDCAD has been testing the upper volatility boundary. A wave C target possibility is 0.92 to 0.88. We suggest using the dai ly chart for execution.
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AUDJPY - Trade was triggered on 4/15. Stops loss orders are live. Clear corrective type wave structure from A to D. X is very impulsive, which should contribute to a well behaved
reversal here. .Sell stops to entry at 95, with stop loss levels at 97.15 for 1/2 the position and 96.41 for one half the po sition are calculated. Targets of 93 and 89.
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AUDNZD - Smaller scale harmonic repeating fractal. Complex flat corrective EW structure. If AUD weakens across the currency matrix th is could be a nice reversal.
No Trade suggestion because pattern rank is too low.
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AUDUSD- Entry was triggered at 0.9350 with targets of 0.91 and 0.88. suggested stops are now at 0.953 & 0.947
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EURAUD - Buy stop entry triggered at 1.488 still Very nice AB = CD wave setting up here at .618% of the previous impulse wave. Clearly a nice area to get long with
the prevailing trend. Current stops 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @ 1.424. Minimum expected target is 1.59
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EURCAD Possible bearish reciprocal AB = CD. No trade suggested.
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EURGBP Possible Minor wave three drive reversal pattern
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EURJPY Corrective Symmetrical triangle. Slight upside bias despite the double top underneath a major top formation.
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EURNZD Buy stop to entry was triggered 4/11/2014, stops are now at 1.578 for 1/2 the position and 1.572 for 1/2. Preceding structu re lacks the traits of a 5 wave im-
pulse or extension (blow off) at X so we are less confident in this particular trade.
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EURUSD Weekly scale corrective EW pattern suggests that the current up move from the 2012 low could be at a critical reversal junctu re. The Gartley PRZ of 1.401
has not been tested yet but we think this pattern is of high enough rank to merit early short positions for aggressive trader s. No formal trade is suggested yet until the
PRZ is reached for conservative traders. But if the PRZ gets hit a sell stop to entry at 1.367 is what we calculate. Stops at 1.424 and 1.415 would be used if filled. Poten-
tial downside targets could be 1.24 or new lows long term.
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GBPAUD Small scale crab caught a reversal here. No trade recommended due to low structure rating but suggested stops are shown for t hose whom want to take
the risk.
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GBPCAD Example of a successful Gartley pattern.
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GBPJPY Potential Fractal completion levels
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GBPNZD Buy stop to entry was triggered at 1.953. Current Stops at 1.92 and 1.91 Measured move targets at minimum at 2.00 and we sug gest taking off 3/4 of the
total position if this is reached since the target 2 is beyond what we see feasible in the next move.
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NZDJPY Very high ranking pattern symmetry. Clearly a 5 wave EW impulse with a - in between wave 3 and 5. When we get a high ranking Ew pattern
that also has a Harmonic relationship in the 3 00% normal position size for ag-
gressive traders. Sell stop to entry at 86.00, with stops at 92.98 & 93.99 respectively. Minimum expected targets are 78 and 70.
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NZDUSD Sitting on nice profits here. Sell stop to entry was triggered on 4/11/2014 at 0.8635. Stops are now at 0.876 and 0.86 Poten tial targets include 0.8472 and
0.8150
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USDCAD potential bearish 5 -0 pattern
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USDMXN bullish Gartley pattern developing nicely
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USDSGD potential bullish Bat, PRZ not yet reached
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Commodities
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WTI Crude Oil Trade is Live! High pattern rank bearish Gartley pattern identified. Sell stop entry triggered @ 102.58, current stops at 105.21 & 104.00 r espectively. Tar-
get 1 almost complete @ 99 .
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Gold Daily Fractals
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Gold Weekly Possible bullish Crown