AES & Natural Gas: The Dominican Republic case and next … · AES & Natural Gas: The Dominican...
Transcript of AES & Natural Gas: The Dominican Republic case and next … · AES & Natural Gas: The Dominican...
AES & Natural Gas: The Dominican Republic case and next steps January, 2015, San Juan - Puerto Rico
Freddy Obando, AES Dominicana Commercial Director
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This presentation may contain forward-looking statements speculative in nature based on the information, operational plans and forecasts currently available about future trends and facts. As such, they are subject to risks and uncertainties. A wide variety of factors may cause future real facts to differ significantly from the issues presented or anticipated in this presentation, including, among others, changes in general economic, political, government and business conditions. In the event of materializing any of these risks or uncertainties, or if underlying assumptions prove to be mistaken, future real facts may vary significantly. AES Corp. is not bound to update or correct the information contained in this report.
Safe Harbor Disclosure
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Agenda
AES in Latin America
AES in the Dominican Republic
Natural Gas in the Dominican Republic
Bringing Natural Gas to the Caribbean
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Latin America represents over 50% of AES’ business
20 years of presence in the region
Over 10,500 people
15,168 MW installed capacity
6 distribution companies serving 8.8m clients
Coal 24%
Gas 29%
Renewables 40%
Oil/Diesel/Pet Coke
7%
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AES’ future is interconnected with the future of the markets we serve
Our Mission Improving lives by providing safe, reliable and sustainable energy solutions in every market we serve.
Our Business definition Leveraging electricity platforms and knowledge to provide energy and infrastructure solutions in our markets of choice.
Our commitment to sustainability Delivering results that exceed our stakeholders’ expectations today by providing innovative resource management and infrastructure solutions to ensure we will meet stakeholder needs in the future.
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Agenda
AES Global presence
AES in the Dominican Republic
Natural Gas in the Dominican Republic
Bringing Natural Gas to the Caribbean
7 AES en el mundo
Over US$1.0 billion invested to support and develop the local energy sector
850MW of base load installed capacity supplies 37% of the country’s energy
Currently building a brownfield project to add 114 MW with a US$260M additional investment.
Development and construction of LNG
terminal and AES Andres combined
cycle
AES Los Mina Natural Gas Conversion and Pipeline development
ITABO acquisition and turnaround - international port
construction
Retail sales of natural gas and third party
access to LNG/CNG
CAPEX invested in Infrastructure maintenance
to date
AES has invested in the Dominican Republic since 1997
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Agenda
AES Global presence
AES in the Dominican Republic
Natural Gas in the Dominican Republic
Bringing Natural Gas to the Caribbean
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AES Andres LNG Terminal Only LNG terminal in the Dominican Republic, including: an on-load-pier and jetty one 160,000 m3 LNG tank 3 regas trains x 125 mmscf/d a 34-km gas pipeline
A clear and simple strategy based on three fundamental principles: Optimization of the use of the current natural gas
infrastructure, Maximization of value in the natural gas supply
chain and Guaranteeing sustainable growth of the LNG
market by promoting modern regulation
AES seeks to optimize the use of the AES Andres LNG terminal in the Dominican Republic
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The introduction of natural gas resulted in a more competitive wholesale electricity market and a substantially more diversified energy matrix for the power sector.
Power Sector Fuel Market Share
Natural Gas Demand Evolution
Since 2003, LNG has saved the Dominican Republic ~$600 million per year
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Industrial / Commercial (65 clients)
Distributors / Wholesale Buyers
Transport (NGV) (more than 15,000 vehicles
and 27 service stations)
A Gas Market created from scratch!
Third Party
Power Plants (4 clients)
Retail Market/ End Buyers Importer
The AES Andres LNG Terminal enabled AES to create a new market for natural gas
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Agenda
AES Global presence
AES in the Dominican Republic
Natural Gas in the Dominican Republic
Bringing Natural Gas to the Caribbean
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Total Potential Demand In the Caribbean estimated in 140 TBTU/yr
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• Caribbean Energy Matrix, highly dependent in Oil & Derivate. • Direct impact on Oil Price Volatility • Potential market identified to convert to an alternative fuel (Natural Gas).
Wind Coal
Solar
Gas 5%
Hydro 5%
Oil
83%
7789
1821
39
24
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mar
tiniq
ue
Baha
mas
Cay
man
Hai
ti
Barb
ados
Guy
ana
Oth
er
Gua
delo
upe
Jam
aica
Potential LNG Demand: ~140 Tbtu (excluding DR) Energy Mix:
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AES Dominicana
LNG Terminal – Reloading Opps
LNG Barges
Mid & Small Scale Vessels
by ISO Containers On board regas
Re-export from AES Andres can be achieved through multiple options
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Maximizing the use of the current assets provides the most efficient, timely and economic way to increase access to LNG
The AES Andres infrastructure could serve incremental demand in the DR and the Caribbean
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AES DR LNG Hub Advantages
• DR’s closer distance to customers allows for smaller inventory and ship size, and offsets DR hub costs.
• Timing advantage to DR as currently none of the existing or under construction
LNG terminals allow small vessels. First Deliveries expected in 1H 2016
• By aggregating demand, AES would provide a more efficient and less risky balancing and inventory services, including the ability to divert volumes.
• Tailor made solutions to be implemented on a costumer by costumer basis.
• Existing infrastructure in place will allow for a competitive cost structure.
Shipping and Storage AssumptionsAndres - Hub USG Direct
Roundtrip Voyage (Days) 5.32 10.60Emergency Inventory (Days) 7.00 7.00Total Inventory Req (Days) 12.32 17.60Total Inventory Req (CM) 11,000 17,000Vessel Size Req (CM) 6,000 11,000
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Market demand agregation: multiple marketing efforts in different markets.
Logistics: optimization of existing infrastructure, vessels, port facilities.
Regulatory risk: ease of access and taxes structures at the different countries could compromise the strategy
Safety risks: largely mitigated by selection of large multinational LNG player
Natural gas competitiveness risk: as replacement of diesel, a low probability of occurrence is expected
Offtaker credit risk: credit quality of offtakers and host countries impacts pricing and required returns
Challenges ahead
Several challenges will need to be addressed in order to bring gas to the Caribbean
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LNG Supplier Provides access to gas portfolio
Manage logistics and operations
AES Provides access
to existing infrastructure
Invests to expand
infrastructure Enables small market access
to LNG
Receiving Countries Facilitates
permitting and consents
Encourages gas conversions
Customers Provides demand
assurance Converts existing
infrastructure to natural gas
In Example: IDB
Could provide guarantees and
financing Support
government regulation and
investment Support regional
coordination
Public-Private partnership is critical to realizing the potential of natural gas in the Caribbean
Multilaterals can create a bridge between the public and private sectors to accelerate investments
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Thanks for your attention
Freddy Obando Prestol DR Commercial Director & MCAC Regional Fuel Director Av. Winston Churchill No. 1099 Ensanche Piantini Torre Citi Group en Plaza Acrópolis, Piso 23 CP 10148 Santo Domingo República Dominicana T: (809) 955-2223 ; Ext. 3382 www.aesdominicana.com.do www.fundacionaesdominicana.org.do