Advisory Board Presentation -...

108
Advisory Board Presentation AIM XXXIX December 8, 2014

Transcript of Advisory Board Presentation -...

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Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXXIX

December 8, 2014

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AIM XXXIX Analysts

Alisha AndersonEden Prairie, Minnesota Check Point Software, New Oriental

Shannon BradySan Juan Capistrano, CaliforniaPotashCorp, Urban Outfitters

Morgan BrennanMadison, Connecticut Google, IMAX

Jeremy DancuTinley Park, IllinoisSchlumberger, Entravision Communications

Justin Dancu Tinley Park, Illinois Danaher, Las Vegas Sands

Alessandro DiSantoHarrisburg, Pennsylvania Activision Blizzard, The Boston Beer Company

Collin Ebert Huron, OhioMicrosoft Corporation, Seadrill

Evan EscobedoAurora, ColoradoUnion Pacific Corp., Molson Coors

Allison FachettiNeedham, MassachusettsCovanta Holding Corp., Dunkin’ Brands

Chris FederighiCary, IllinoisVeriFone Systems, Ford Motor Co.

Suzanne FitzpatrickDarien, Connecticut Hain Celestial Group, Whole Foods

Daniel GroomNaples, Florida Intel, Coach

Robert HaddadClark, New Jersey UnitedHealth Group, SeaWorld

Andrew Kimball White Bear Lake, Minnesota IAC/InterActiveCorp., Domino’s Pizza

Alex KroegerCincinnati, OhioMotorola Solutions, PNC

Brianna LeonGrayslake, IllinoisCalumet Specialty Products, Marriott

Blake NelsonMinnetonka, Minnesota Dollar Tree, 3D Systems

Ryan NewellWinnetka, IllinoisWWE, Under Armour

Patrick O’HaraPonte Vedra Beach, FloridaLive Nation Entertainment, Gilead Sciences

Alex PacelliArlington Heights, IllinoisMonsanto, Buffalo Wild Wings

John Plantemoli Chatham, New JerseyApple, Foot Locker

Jack SmithSummit, New Jersey Corning, Lockheed Martin

Eric Tommarello Baldwinsville, New York Pixelworks, Inc., Atwood Oceanics

Justin VogtBreese, Illinois Deere & Co., Tesla Motors

Maggie WilmouthBillings, MontanaKinder Morgan, Keurig Green Mountain

Tyler Wingo Fairfax, Virginia Delphi Automotive, Vitamin Shoppe

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AIM XXXIX Analyst Hometowns

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AgendaInvestment Objectives and GuidelinesEconomic Environment Security AnalysisPortfolio PerformanceAIM XXXIX HighlightsConclusion

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Objectives and GuidelinesAIM OverviewAnalyst Responsibilities Group Responsibilities Stock Selection ProcessInvestment Philosophy Investment Constraints Investment GuidelinesMarket Capitalization ProfileEthics Policies

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Provide analysts with a thorough grounding in portfolio management and equity valuation

Combine theory with hands-on experience

Selection based on academic record and professional experience

Analysts assume responsibilities for all portfolio management decisions

Objectives and GuidelinesAIM Overview

Course Objectives

Analyst Selection

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Each analyst covers two companies: First round: assigned stock from current portfolio Second round: selected stock of interest

For each stock, analysts produce and present a series of reports: Company overview Fundamental analysis Industry report EPS forecast Technical analysis Valuation and final recommendation

Objectives and GuidelinesAnalyst Responsibilities

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Portfolio Performance

Report on recent and long-term performance compared to benchmarks

Analyze risk-adjusted performance and portfolio attribution

Newsletter

Produce quarterly newsletters for distribution to alumni and advisory board

Provide economic and performance summaries, as well as alumni updates

Economic Outlook

Analyze recent developments and trends of economic indicators

Assess portfolio impact

Trading

Coordinate trading activities for portfolio

Maintain communication with the Investment Office

Objectives and GuidelinesGroup Responsibilities

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Analysts discuss inputs, drivers, and assumptions

Analysts provide buy, hold, or sell recommendations based on an intrinsic valuation

Final portfolio decisions require a majority vote of all analysts

Objectives and GuidelinesStock Selection Process

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Identify undervalued stocks

Outperform benchmarks S&P 500 Russell 2000 (small cap) Hank Blended Index (HBI) (65% S&P 500, 35% Russell 2000)

Bottom-up approach, accompanied by top-down consideration Determine intrinsic value through fundamental analysis while

maintaining macroeconomic and specific industry outlook

Risk is not actively managed

Objectives and GuidelinesInvestment Philosophy

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Trading liquidity No specific liquidity target

Time horizon 3 – 5 years (long-term)

Laws and regulations Adhere to the “Prudent Person Rule”

Tax considerations No tax considerations due to the University’s tax-exempt

status

Objectives and GuidelinesInvestment Constraints

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Long-only common equities traded on major U.S. exchanges

Sector allocation should roughly match that of the S&P 500

Portfolio market cap target allocations: Small/mid cap stocks: 35% Large cap stocks: 65% +/- 10% boundary

Any one stock should not exceed 10% of the current portfolio

Long-term target for cash holdings is 0% Goal is to be fully invested

Objectives and GuidelinesInvestment Guidelines

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Source: BNY Workbench1 Upon inheritance 4/29/142 As of final trades 11/24/14

AIM XXXVIII Portfolio Composition1 AIM XXXIX Portfolio Composition2

Objectives and GuidelinesMarket Capitalization Profile

70.5%

25.8%

3.7%

Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap

68.6%

19.7%

11.7%

Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap

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Avoid companies “whose values are not consistent with those of the University”

Including (but not limited to): Abortifacients Birth Control Tobacco

Objectives and GuidelinesEthics Policies

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Economic OverviewGDP ProjectionsConsumptionHousingBusiness InvestmentGovernment SpendingNet ExportsLabor Market & UnemploymentInflationInterest RatesFed PolicyImpact on AIM Portfolio

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2015 GDP Forecast Breakdown

Economic OverviewGDP Projection & Overview

Consumption

Investment

Government Spending

Net Exports

2015 GDP Forecast

1.5%

0.5%

0.8%

(0.7%)

2.1%

• U.S. is the strongest large

economy in the world

• New Normal of GDP ~ 2%

• Cautious Optimism

• Stronger on employment

• Accommodative Fed

GDP Outlook

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(4.0%)

(2.0%)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Personal Consumption Expenditure LTM % Change 10-Year Average

Personal Consumption Expenditure LTM % Change

American consumers are spending more, but cautiously

10-Year Average: 3.83%

Economic OverviewConsumption

Source: Federal ReserveChart axis dates as of October 31 of the respective year.

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Personal Income LTM % Change

Economic OverviewConsumption

Incomes are increasing, but at a slower than expected pace

(6.0%)

(4.0%)

(2.0%)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Personal Income LTM % Change 10-Year Average

10-Year Average: 3.99%

Source: Federal ReserveChart axis dates as of October 31 of the respective year.

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0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Real Private Residential Fixed Investment ($Bn) New Privately Owned Housing Units Starts (000’s)

Private residential fixed investment stagnant, with flat growth single-family housing units and a slight increase in multi-family housing units

10-Year Average: $556

Economic OverviewHousing

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

10-Year Average: 1,088

Source: Federal ReserveChart axis dates as of July 31 (left chart) and September 30 (right chart) of the respective year.

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0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Median Sales Price of Existing HomesMedian Sales Price of New Homes

Median Home Sales Price ($) 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate

Sluggish demand due to low expected income, high student debt, and difficulty in obtaining mortgage credit

Economic OverviewHousing

10-Year Average: 5.1%

Source: Federal ReserveChart axis dates as of September 30 (left chart) and October 31 (right chart) of the respective year.

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Manufacturers’ New Orders: Non-defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft % Change

Economic OverviewInvestment

Holding back on new investments in the short-term

(40.0%)

(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

LTM % Change Monthly % Change

Source: Federal ReserveChart axis dates as of October 31 of the respective year.

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October Year-to-Date Orders for Durable Goods ($MM)

Economic OverviewInvestment

Despite short-term setbacks, longer-term trends are positive

(50.0%)

(40.0%)

(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Year-to-Date Orders for Durable Goods Y-O-Y % Change

Source: United States Census Bureau Chart axis dates as of October 31 of the respective year.

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Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment as a % of GDP

Economic OverviewGovernment Spending

Source: Federal Reserve

Government spending as a % of GDP steadily declining, although seemingly decelerating

18.3%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

21.0%

22.0%

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Federal Government Spending ($Bn) State & Local Government Spending ($Bn)

Government spending has been steadily increasing on both the federal and local levels

Economic OverviewGovernment Spending

Source: Federal Reserve

(4.0%)

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

(2.0%)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Total Expenditures ($Bn) % Change from Previous Year

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(900)

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0

Surp

lus /

(Def

icit)

Real Net Exports of Goods and Services ($)

Economic OverviewNet Exports

Despite positive net export numbers in Q3 2014, a strengthening dollar will weigh down net exports moving forward, lowering the demand for U.S. goods and services

($516Bn)

Annualized Net Exports of Goods and Services ($Bn)

Source: Federal Reserve

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Economic OverviewNet Exports

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

1 Year Historical Dollar Strength

US Dollar per Japanese Yen ($USDJPY) - Rate Value US Dollar per Euro ($USDEUR) - Rate Value Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index - Index Value

• 1 Dollar = 119.27 Yen• 1 Dollar = .81 Euro

• 1 Dollar = 101.5 Yen• 1 Dollar = .70 Euro

After 6 months of relative stability, the dollar has appreciated significantly vs. other currencies around the world since July, 2014

One Year Historical Dollar Strength

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Recent ChangesUnemployment Over Time

Participation Oct. 2014 YoY ChangeLabor Force Participation Rate 62.8% 0.0%Employment-Population Ratio 59.2% 1.0%

Measures of Underutilization Oct. 2014 YoY ChangeInvoluntary Part-time Workers 7.03 MM (0.99 MM)Marginally Attached Workers 2.20 MM -Discouraged Workers 770,000 -

Economic OverviewLabor Market and Unemployment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

October 2014Unemployment Rate 5.80%

% Change since Sep. (0.10%)% Change YoY (1.40%)

Persons Unemployed 9.0 MMChange since Sep. (0.3 MM)Change YoY (2.2 MM)

Long-Term Unemployed 2.9 MM

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

Unemployment Rate (Official) Unemployment Rate (U6)

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Inflation Measures Historic Annual Inflation

Fed Target: 2.0% CPI: 1.7% Measures prices paid by urban

consumers for a basket of goods PCE: 1.55% Accounts for consumers switching

away from higher priced goods Fed focuses on PCE

Economic OverviewInflation Projections

Source: Federal Reserve

(3.0%)(2.0%)(1.0%)

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%

PCE CPI Fed Target

Inflation is expected to persist below 2.0% through 2015, leading to further extension of near 0 rates from the Fed

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Background Current Dot Chart

Dual Mandate Manage Inflation Maximize Employment

Low interest rates for the last 6 years

Continued low rates expected through at least Spring 2015 Possible low rates for longer-

term with low expected inflation

Questions remain regarding long-term maximum employment rate

Economic OverviewInterest Rate Projections

Source: Federal Reserve

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 Longer Run

Fed

Fund

s Rat

e as

a %

With slow inflation and improving unemployment, the Fed is expected to maintain their current low rates through 2015

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0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Economic EnvironmentFed Policy

10-Year Treasury Yield (Annotated)

Source: Federal Reserve

30

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Economic EnvironmentFed Policy

October 2014

FOMC last met on October 28th & 29th

Confirmed the end of its asset-purchase program $1.66 trillion had been

added to its balance sheet by that point

Pledged to keep interest rates low “for a considerable time”

Likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2% said to have “diminished somewhat”

Reinvestment of maturing securities will be stopped only after the benchmark interest rate is raised

Fed Balance Sheet (% of GDP)

Source: Federal Reserve

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Economic EnvironmentFed Policy

Source: Federal Reserve

Consumer Price IndexUnemployment Rate Federal Funds Rate

(3%)(2%)(1%)

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Despite the recent termination of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve isn’t likely to raise interest rates until late 2015 or possibly early 2016

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Economic EnvironmentImpact on AIM Portfolio

Consumption

Business Investment

Housing Impact

Net Exports

Government Spending

Factor Trends OutlookImprovement from increased disposable income and the rally in the market

Increasing demand from developing countries, strong consumption levels and enterprise spending

Lower commodity prices hurt agriculture stocks

Shift to domestic production – lower oil prices hurt drilling companies but help inputs for other industries

Consumer Discretionary

Technology

Agriculture

Energy

Industry change through political pressuresHealthcare

Headwind presented by increasing interest rates and stagnant investment levels

Producer Durables

Stable growth with the “new normal” of GDP – less volatile than many other sectors

Consumer Staples

The AIM Portfolio suffers from overexposure to oil and energy related equities, but is well-positioned to ride technology and consumer staples stocks for future gains

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Security AnalysisOverviewDiscoveryIndustry AnalysisFundamental AnalysisEPS/Multiples ValuationDividend Discount ValuationDCF Valuation/BetaTechnical Analysis

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Security AnalysisOverview

Stock Analyst Focus

Dunkin’ Brands Allison Fachetti Discovery

Lockheed Martin Jack Smith Industry Analysis

Live Nation Patrick O’Hara Fundamental Analysis

SeaWorld Entertainment Robert Haddad Fundamental Analysis

Las Vegas Sands Justin Dancu EPS/Multiples Valuation

Seadrill Collin Ebert Dividend Discount Valuation

Under Armour Ryan Newell DCF Valuation/Beta

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Alisha Anderson Technical Analysis

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1-Year Price Chart

$40

$42

$44

$46

$48

$50

$52

$54

Focus – Discovery

Price (11/21/14): $47.39

1-Year Forward P/E: 23.94

Market Cap: $5.06B

Dividend Yield: 1.90%

LTM EPS: $1.55

Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc.NASDAQ: DNKN

Source: Yahoo Finance and S&P Capital IQ

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Historical Revenue ($MM) Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. runs both the Dunkin’ Donuts and Baskin Robbins chains

In 2004, both companies were organized under Dunkin’ Brands, Inc.

In 2011, Dunkin’ Brands, Inc. went public

Dunkin’ Brands utilizes a nearly 100% franchised business model 18,000 points of distribution 60 countries

2013 Revenue By Segment

Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc.Overview

Source: Dunkin’ Brand 2013 Annual Report

- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM

CAGR 4.4%

73%

17%

6%

3% 2%Dunkin' DonutsU.S.

Baskin-RobbinsInternational

Baskin-RobbinsU.S.

Dunkin' DonutsInternational

Other37

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Survey

Visited 10 Dunkin’ Donuts & 1 Baskin Robbins 1 Mishawaka, IN location Suburbs of Boston (Needham, Wellesley,

Dedham, West Roxbury, Newton) Spoke with 5 managers Dunkin’ stores saw very few sales later at night Baskin Robbins sales are very slow after the

summer season Large shift in demographics between different

locations

Store Visits

Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc.Discovery

Wellesley, MA town center location West Roxbury, MA highway location

14%

73%

14%

Dinner at Dunkin' Donuts?

Yes

No

Maybe

55%16%

13%

16%

Preferred Dessert

Hard Ice Cream

Soft-Serve

Frozen Yogurt

Baked Goods

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Revenue Projections by Segment (in $ thousands)

Segment 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Dunkin' Donuts U.S. $485,400 $521,179 $555,389 $588,570 $621,974 $653,292 $679,097 $706,154YoY Growth 7.37% 6.56% 5.97% 5.68% 5.04% 3.95% 3.98%Dunkin' Donuts International $15,485 $18,317 $22,083 $26,513 $32,511 $38,118 $44,103 $47,740YoY Growth 18.29% 20.56% 20.06% 22.62% 17.25% 15.70% 8.25%Baskin Robbins U.S. $42,073 $42,152 $42,477 $42,762 $42,892 $43,051 $43,134 $43,329YoY Growth 0.19% 0.77% 0.67% 0.30% 0.37% 0.19% 0.45%Baskin Robbins International $101,975 $120,333 $131,301 $137,455 $142,771 $145,806 $146,306 $146,959YoY Growth 18.00% 9.11% 4.69% 3.87% 2.13% 0.34% 0.45%

Total Dunkin' Brands Revenue AIM Projection $658,180 $713,842 $763,109 $807,159 $852,008 $892,126 $924,499 $956,042YoY Growth 8.46% 6.90% 5.77% 5.56% 4.71% 3.63% 3.41%

Consensus Estimate $748,850 $801,200 $882,000YoY Growth 4.90% 6.99% 10.08%

Source: Bloomberg

Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc.Impact on DCF Analysis

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Recommendation: NO BUY

Valuation Method Weight Valuation Contribution

Dividend Discount Model 10% $49.20 $4.92

Forward P / E 20% $50.75 $10.15

Forward Price / Sales 0% $48.49 -

Forward Price / Operating Profit 10% $49.50 $4.95

DFCF / Share 60% $40.32 $24.19

Intrinsic Value $44.21

Market Price (11/21/14) $47.39

Estimated Upside / (Downside) (7.19)%

Investment Thesis Difficult for Dunkin’ Donuts to continue aggressive growth in long-run Baskin-Robbins is dragging down company growth Highly competitive industry Great company, bad stock

Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc.Valuation and Thesis

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Lockheed Martin CorporationNYSE: LMT

Source: Yahoo Finance and S&P Capital IQ

1-Year Price Chart

Price (11/21/14): $187.93

1-Year Forward P/E: 16.67x

Market Cap: $60.15Bn

Dividend Yield: 3.10%

LTM EPS: $9.88

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

Focus: Industry Analysis

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Lockheed Martin CorporationOverview

Source: Yahoo Finance and S&P Capital IQ

World’s largest defense contractor by 2013 sales, approximately $45.00Bn in revenue

Customer breakdown: US government – 82% US commercial – 1% Foreign governments – 17%

Business segment breakdown: Aeronautics Information Systems & Global

Solutions Missile & Fire Control Mission Systems & Training Space Systems Electronic Systems (defunct)

Products include: F-35 Lightning II F-22 Raptor C-130 Hercules Javelin & Hellfire Missiles

Business Overview

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AERO ISGS MFC MST SS ES

Revenue by Segment

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total net sales Net profit margin

Revenue ($Bn) and Profit Margin

42

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Lockheed Martin CorporationIndustry Analysis

Source: Yahoo Finance and S&P Capital IQ

Porter’s Five Forces Market Share Breakdown

Non-US Military Spending ($Bn)US Military Spending ($Bn)

Industry Rivalry

Fierce competition between domestic and foreign firms; some cooperation

Threat of Substitutes

National security always a major security concern for US & NATO members

New Entrants Incredibly high barriers to entry

Power of Buyers

Highly concentrated buyer base around developed nations like US, Russia, China

Power of Suppliers

Major defense firms have significant purchasing power from suppliers

11.90%

7.40%

7.20%

4.90%

4.70%4.50%

59.40%

Lockheed Martin

Boeing

Airbus

United Technologies

BAE Systems

Northrop Grumman

Other

0

50

100

150

200

2013 Spending 2012 Spending

700

750

800

850

900

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

US GDP Total Defense Spending

43

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Lockheed Martin CorporationValuation and Thesis

Source: Company Reports and S&P Capital IQ

Recommendation: BUY

Valuation Method Weight Valuation Contribution

Implied Dividend Discount Model 50% $198.77 $99.39

Forward P / E 0% $178.84 $0.00

Forward EV / EBITDA 0% $175.91 $0.00

DFCF / Share 50% $186.43 $93.21

Intrinsic Value $192.60

Market Price (11/21/14) $185.80

Estimated Upside / (Downside) 3.66%

Investment Thesis: Market leader in an enduring industry with a significant economic moat Significant opportunities from developing nations with archaic military technology Diversification into increasingly complex software security product lines Consistently high free cash flow (~$4B per year) fuel investor-friendly dividend and repurchase plans

44

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$15

$17

$19

$21

$23

$25

$27

$29

1-Year Price Chart

Price (11/21/14): $26.04

Market Cap: $5.28Bn

1-Year Forward P/E: >100.0x

Dividend Yield -

LTM EPS $0.03

Focus – Fundamental Analysis

Live Nation EntertainmentNYSE: LYV

Source: Yahoo Finance and S&P Capital IQ

45

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Historical Revenues

Controls nearly the entire production of a concert with these four segments

Largest live entertainment company Connects nearly 400 million fans across

over 240,000 events in 33 countries Promotes leading artists including Jay-Z,

Jason Aldean, Maroon 5, Rihanna, etc.

Source: SEC Filings and S&P Capital IQ

Live Nation EntertainmentOverview

$5,064 $5,384

$5,819 $6,479

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2010 2011 2012 2013

($M

M)

Fiscal Year

CAGR: 6.4%69%

22%

5%4%

Concerts Ticketing Artist Nation Sponsorship & Advertising

2013 Revenue by Segment

46

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-

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013

($M

M)

Fiscal YearEBIT Linear Constant Growth

Business Risk – EBIT Volatility

Vs. Mean: 203% Vs. Linear: 116% Vs. Constant Growth: 249%

Financial Risk

Source: SEC Filings and S&P Capital IQ

Live Nation EntertainmentBusiness and Financial Risk

60.0%62.0%64.0%66.0%68.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019EFiscal Year

Total Debt to Capital

0.0x0.5x1.0x1.5x2.0x2.5x

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019EFiscal Year

Interest Coverage Ratio

47

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(4.0%)(3.5%)(3.0%)(2.5%)(2.0%)(1.5%)(1.0%)(0.5%)

–2010 2011 2012 2013

Fiscal Year

Return on Equity Financial Leverage

Net Profit Margin Capital Turnover

Source: SEC Filings and S&P Capital IQ

Live Nation EntertainmentROE – DuPont Analysis

(15.0%)

(12.0%)

(9.0%)

(6.0%)

(3.0%)

0.0%2010 2011 2012 2013

Fiscal Year

2.5x

2.7x

2.9x

3.1x

3.3x

3.5x

2010 2011 2012 2013Fiscal Year

1.0x

1.1x

1.2x

1.3x

1.4x

1.5x

2010 2011 2012 2013Fiscal Year

48

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Recommendation: SELLValuation Method Weight Valuation Contribution

Book Value / Share 0% $8.19 $ -

Forward P / E 0% $8.07 $ -

Forward Price / Sales 30% $25.31 $7.59

Forward Price / EBITDA 20% $27.95 $5.59

DFCF / Share 20% $9.01 $1.80

Forward Price / Operating Income 0% $11.83 $ -

EV / EBITDA 30% $27.47 $8.24

Intrinsic Value $23.23

Market Price (11/21/14) $26.04

Estimated Upside / (Downside) (10.8%)

Investment Thesis Unfavorable cost structure High leverage Inherently volatile industry

Live Nation EntertainmentValuation and Thesis

49

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SeaWorld EntertainmentNYSE: SEAS

Source: Yahoo Finance and S&P Capital IQ

1-Year Price Chart

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

Price (11/21/14): $17.07

1-Year Forward P/E: 17.57

Market Cap: $1.51B

Dividend Yield: 4.93%

LTM EPS: $0.71

Focus – Fundamental Analysis

50

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SeaWorld EntertainmentOverview

Source: Yahoo Finance and S&P Capital IQ

SeaWorld Entertainment operates 11 theme parks across 5 major regions. The company includes SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, Discovery Cove, and several other parks.

Historical Revenue ($MM)

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM 9/2014

Admissions Food, Merchandise, and Other

51

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SeaWorld EntertainmentOverview

Source: Company Reports

Attendance (MM) Revenue per Capita

21.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM9/2014

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM9/2014

Admissions Food, Merchandise, and Other

52

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Sales Volatility (Linear) = 2.6% EBIT Volatility (Linear) = 14.0% Operating Leverage = 5.61x

SeaWorld EntertainmentBusiness Risk

Source: Company Reports

Sales Volatility ($MM) Overall Business Risk

Reliant on economy, consumer confidence, discretionary income, and tourism

High degree of operating leverage Negative media attention (Blackfish)

Overall Business Risk HIGHVolatility and Operating Leverage

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

2010 2011 2012 2013Linear Constant Growth Sales

53

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SeaWorld EntertainmentFinancial Risk

Source: Company ReportsNote: Quarterly information on operating leases is not given. LTM 9/2013 operating leases assumed equal to 2013 operating leases.

Leverage Ratio Times Interest Earned

Cash Flow / Total Debt

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM9/2014

0.0x

0.5x

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM9/2014

12.0%13.0%14.0%15.0%16.0%17.0%18.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM9/2014

Overall Financial Risk HIGH

54

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-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%

2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

SeaWorld EntertainmentDuPont Analysis: ROE with Components

Source: Company ReportsNote: Quarterly information on operating leases is not given. LTM 9/2013 operating leases assumed equal to 2013 operating leases.

Return on Equity

Net Profit Margin Capital Turnover

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.60

Leverage

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00

55

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SeaWorld EntertainmentValuation and Thesis

Source: Company Reports and S&P Capital IQ

Valuation Method Weight Valuation Contribution

Dividend Discount Model 10% $15.78 $1.58

Forward P / E 10% $16.75 $ 1.67

Forward EV / EBITDA 10% $18.00 $1.80

DFCF / Share 70% $16.87 $11.81

Intrinsic Value $16.86

Market Price (11/21/14) $17.07

Estimated Upside / (Downside) (1.2)%

Investment Thesis:• Long turnaround• High degree of operating leverage • Overvalued given risk profile and fundamentals

Recommendation: NO BUY

56

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Las Vegas Sands Corp.NYSE: LVS

Source: Bloomberg, Capital IQ

Price (11/21/14): $63.79

1-Year Forward P/E: 19.00

Market Cap: $49.56Bn

Dividend Yield: 3.13%

LTM EPS: $3.39

1-Year Price Chart

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

Focus: Multiples Analysis

57

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Las Vegas Sands Corp.Overview

Source: Company Filings, Wells Fargo Research

End Markets (% revenue): Macau – 74% United States – 16% Singapore – 10%

World-class facilities include: Robust gaming for VIP and Mass Market Luxury hotels and entertainment Extensive retail and dining options Business and convention centers

Recent Weakness in Macau: Industry VIP gaming revenue down 25% Broad crackdown on corruption within Leading market share among Mass Market

consumer (30%, #2=24%)

Mitigant: Diverse product offering and focus on serving middle class

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Net Revenue LVS EBIT Margin

Revenue 2004-2014 CAGR: 28.6%

Historical Revenue & Operating Margin

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Casino Room Food and Beverage Convention, Retail, Other Mall

Revenue by Product Offering

LVS Overview

58

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Multiples AnalysisLas Vegas Sands Corp.

Source: Bloomberg, Company Filings

Forward Price/Earnings Forward EV/EBITDA

Avg. Current Estimate 2015 Earnings

IntrinsicValue

20.7x 19.0x 21.0x $3.70 $77.64

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

25.0x

30.0x

35.0x

LVS Wynn Cons. Discretionary Forward Est.

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

14.0x

16.0x

18.0x

LVS Wynn Cons. Discretionary Forward Est.

Avg. Current Estimate 2015 EBITDA

IntrinsicValue

12.2x 11.5x 12.5x $5,150 $65.61

Analyze various forward multiples including P/E, EV/EBITDA and P/Sales over a three year period

Compare LVS to other players like Wynn Resorts as well as the broader S&P Cons. Discretionary index

Determined that current implied multiples were too low relative to three year relationship

59

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Valuation and ThesisLas Vegas Sands Corp.

Recommendation: BUY

Valuation Method Weight Valuation Contribution

Forward EV/EBITDA 65% $65.61 $ 8.53

Forward P / E 25% $77.64 $ 3.88

Forward Price / Sales 10% $56.15 $1.12

Final Multiples Intrinsic Value 20% $67.67 13.53

DFCF / Share 70% $68.54 $47.98

Dividend Discount Model / Share 10% $83.99 $8.40

Intrinsic Value $69.91

Market Price (11/21/14) $63.79

Estimated Upside / (Downside) 9.6%

Investment Thesis:• Best-in-class operator with diverse product offering oversold on recent weakness in Macau• Medium-to-Long-term trends intact as Chinese middle class continues to expand• Strong management has positioned LVS well to take advantage of new Asian markets

60

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Seadrill LimitedNYSE: SDRL

Source: Capital IQ

1-Year Price Chart

Price (11/21/14): $21.36

1-Year Forward P/E: 4.79

Market Cap: $10.0Bn

Dividend Yield: -

LTM EPS: $8.94

Focus – Dividend Discount Model

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

61

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Seadrill LimitedOverview

Source: Company filings

Revenue & Gross Margin History ($MM)

Global offshore drilling contractor operating in shallow and deepwater environments

Revenue by Geography

Company Overview Revenue by Customer

$3,254 $4,041 $4,192

$4,478

$5,282 $5,192

42.2% 40.2% 42.3% 40.0% 39.7% 46.3%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM(6/30)

23% 18% 23%

22%14% 16%

8%8%

14%

47%60% 48%

2011 2012 2013Norway Brazil Angola Others

17% 15% 16%

15% 14% 14%7% 9% 14%

10% 11%12%

51% 51% 44%

2011 2012 2013Petrobas Total Statoil Exxon Other

62

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Seadrill LimitedDividend Discount Model

Source: Analyst projections; Company filings

Historical & Projected Dividends

FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yearly Total % Increase Payout Ratio2010 $0.60 $0.61 $0.65 $0.88 $2.74 0.0% 84.5%2011 $0.75 $0.75 $0.76 $0.80 $3.06 11.7% 97.2%2012 $0.97 $0.84 $0.85 $0.85 $3.51 14.7% 159.7%2013 $0.88 $0.91 $0.95 $0.98 $3.72 6.0% 46.2%

FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yearly Total % Increase Payout Ratio PV2014(e) $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $4.00 7.5% 48.5% $1.91 2015(e) $0.58 $0.58 $0.58 $0.58 $2.31 -42.3% 75.0% $2.11 2016(e) $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $2.47 6.9% 75.0% $2.07 2017(e) $0.64 $0.64 $0.64 $0.64 $2.57 4.4% 75.0% $1.98 2018(e) $0.63 $0.63 $0.63 $0.63 $2.52 -1.9% 75.0% $1.78 2019(e) $0.63 $0.63 $0.63 $0.63 $2.54 0.6% 75.0% $1.64

Discounted Continuing Value 1.0% $20.42

Intrinsic Value $31.92

Current Share Price (11/21/14) $21.36 Upside to Current Share Price 49.42%

63

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Seadrill LimitedValuation & Thesis

Source: Analyst projections; Company filings

Recommendation: Buy

Valuation Method Weight Valuation Contribution

Book Value/Share - $22.92 -

DFCF/Share 40% $27.76 $11.10

Dividend Discount Model 60% $31.98 $19.19

EV/EBITDA - $38.95 -

Price/Book - $26.82 -

Price/Sales - $28.60 -

Intrinsic Value $30.29

Market Price (11/21/14) $21.36

Estimated Upside / (Downside) 44.8%

Investment Thesis:• Depressed stock due to ~40% decline in crude oil prices since June• New fleet relative to industry• Current revenue backlog of $20 billion

64

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Source: Company filings; Capital IQ

Seadrill announced on Wednesday, November 26 that it would temporarily suspend its dividend

Suspension improves the company’s capital position by $2 billion per year

Company will focus on delevering balance sheet and pursuing growth through consolidation opportunities

Dividend Suspension

Share Repurchase Program

Seadrill LimitedSubsequent News

Seadrill authorized a share buyback program for up to 10% of shares outstanding $30

$50

$70

$90

$110

$130

$150

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

Bren

t Cru

de O

il Pr

ice

Sead

rill

Stoc

k Pr

ice

Seadrill Brent Oil

Seadrill vs. Brent Oil 2006-11

65

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Price (11/21/14): $69.30

1-Year Forward P/E: 65.68

Market Cap: $14.8Bn

Dividend Yield: -

LTM EPS: $0.84

Focus – Beta, WACC, & Free Cash Flow Model

1-Year Price Chart

Source: Yahoo Finance and S&P Capital IQ

Under Armour, Inc.NYSE: UA

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

66

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Source: Company filings

Principal business activities: development, marketing, and distribution of branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories

2013 revenue breakdown: Apparel: 75.6% Footwear: 12.8% Accessories: 9.3% International: 6%

Historical Revenue By Product ($MM)

2013 Revenue By Channel

22%

46%

30%

2%

Dick's and Sports Authority Other wholesale Direct to consumer Licensing

Business Overview

Under Armour, Inc.Overview

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Apparel Footwear Accessories Licensing & other Operating margin

67

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Beta Regression Beta Calculation

Source: Yahoo Finance, Company filings

WACC Calculation ($MM)Total debt Pre-Tax Cost of Debt Total Equity Cost of Equity Debt + Equity Tax Rate WACC

$879 3.33% $14,604 8.01% $15,483 40.0% 7.67%

Regression Beta Weight

UA - daily 1.403 25%

UA - weekly 1.552 25%

Nike - daily 0.906 25%

Nike - weekly 0.923 25%

Calculated beta 1.196 67%

Mean reversion 1.00 33%

Final beta 1.130

Rationale: high historical beta to revert toward industry and market average as business matures

Under Armour, Inc.Beta and WACC

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

- -

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

(8.0%) (4.0%) - - 4.0% 8.0%

UA W

eekl

y Re

turn

s

S&P 500 Weekly Returns

68

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Source: Company filings

2024 Revenue by Product

Projected Revenue by Product ($MM) FCF Value Per Share Calculation ($MM)

Present value of FCFs (years 2014-2024) $2,850

Value of perpetuity $20,657

Present value of perpetuity $10,173

% of equity value 80.9%

Excess cash $430

Entity (firm) value $13,454

Total debt $879

Equity value $12,574

Shares outstanding (as of 9/30/14) 213.7

Free cash flow value per share $58.84

Under Armour, Inc.Free Cash Flow Model

62%

27%

8%3%

Apparel Footwear Accessories Licensing & other

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Apparel Footwear Accessories Licensing & other Operating margin

69

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Recommendation: NO BUYValuation Method Weight Valuation Contribution

Book Value / Share 0% $5.97 -

Forward P / E 20% $46.32 $9.26

Forward Price / Sales 0% $45.01 -

Forward Price / Book 0% $57.49 -

Base Case DFCF / Share 40% $58.84 $23.54

Downside Case DFCF / Share 20% $27.92 $5.58

Upside Case DFCF / Share 20% $101.38 $20.28

Intrinsic Value $58.66

Market Price (11/21/14) $69.30

Estimated Upside / (Downside) (15.4%)

Investment Thesis:• Strong and growing brand• Consistently high top- and bottom-line growth• Value dependent on unproven success in footwear and international divisions• Great company, overvalued stock

Source: Yahoo Finance

Under Armour, Inc.Valuation and Thesis

70

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Source: Yahoo Finance & CapIQ

1-Year Price Chart

Price (11/21/14): $22.34

1-Year Forward P/E: 13.28

Market Cap: $3.45Bn

Dividend Yield: -

LTM EPS: $1.27

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

Focus: Technical Analysis

New Oriental Education and Technology GroupNYSE: EDU

71

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Source: Company filings, Mergent

Historical Revenue Largest provider of private educational services in China

Programs and services:1. Test preparation2. K-12 after-school tutoring3. Language training4. Primary and secondary

schools and kindergartens5. Educational content, software

and other technology development and distribution

6. Online education7. Other services and products

Since 1993, has had approximately 19.6M student enrollments

Average Selling Price (ASP) per Class

0%

10%

20%

30%

$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Implied Average Selling Price (ASP) ASP Change

New Oriental Education and Technology GroupOverview

$0$200,000$400,000$600,000$800,000

$1,000,000$1,200,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Educational Programs and Services Books and Others

CAGR: 34.4%

72

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Source: S&P Capital IQ

024681012141618

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

Millions of Shares

EDU

/S&

P500

Volume EDU/S&P 500

Relative Strength: Examines performance of a stock relative to a market index

Relative Strength SELL

Moving Averages

Support & Resistance

Up/Down Volume RatioTechnicalAnalysis Assessment

New Oriental Education and Technology GroupTechnical Analysis – Relative Strength (1-year)

73

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Source: S&P Capital IQ

02468101214161820

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

Millions of SharesSh

are

Pric

e

Volume Share Pricing MA50 MA200

Moving Averages: Provides smoothed indicators of the overall price trends

Relative Strength SELL

Moving Averages SELL

Support & Resistance

Up/Down Volume RatioTechnicalAnalysis Assessment

New Oriental Education and Technology GroupTechnical Analysis – Moving Averages (1-year)

74

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Source: S&P Capital IQ

02468101214161820

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

Millions of Shares

Shar

e Pr

ice

Volume Share Pricing

Support & Resistance: Breaking through a channel indicates change in price

Relative Strength SELL

Moving Averages SELL

Support & Resistance HOLD

Up/Down Volume RatioTechnicalAnalysis Assessment

New Oriental Education and Technology GroupTechnical Analysis – Support and Resistance (1-year)

75

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Source: S&P Capital IQ

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Up/Down Ratio: Indicates whether under accumulation or experiencing distribution

Relative Strength SELL

Moving Averages SELL

Support & Resistance HOLD

Up/Down Volume Ratio

HOLD

TechnicalAnalysis Assessment

SELL!

New Oriental Education and Technology GroupTechnical Analysis – Up/Down Volume Ratio (1-year)

76

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Recommendation: BUY

Valuation Method Weight Valuation Contribution

Book Value / Share 0% $7.34 -

Forward P / E 5% $26.00 $1.30

Forward Price / Sales 5% $21.68 $1.08

Forward Price / Operating Profit 5% $22.96 $1.15

DFCF / Share 85% $34.27 $26.83

Intrinsic Value $30.37

Market Price (11/25/14) $22.34

Estimated Upside / (Downside) 36.0%

Investment Thesis:• Depressed stock due to poor Q1 enrollment results and recently resolved lawsuit• Leading test prep and K-12 after school tutorial service provider in China • Vast network supports the development of offline and online courses

New Oriental Education and Technology GroupValuation and Thesis

77

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Portfolio PerformanceHistorical Returns & BenchmarksRisk-adjusted Performance MeasuresSector Allocation & Attribution AnalysisBest & Worst Performance Portfolio TransactionsActive Share

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Wealth Ratio Comparison Cumulative Return of $1

As of October 31, 2014

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

S&P 500 Russell 2000 HBI AIM

$8.33

$3.72$3.26$3.20

79

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Historical Performance AIM Portfolio Returns vs. Benchmarks

As of October 31, 2014

24.08% 23.40%

20.77%

11.95%

17.27%

19.77%

16.69%

8.50%

14.09%

19.28%

17.02%

8.55%8.06%

18.18%17.39%

8.64%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception

AIM S&P 500 HBI Russell 2000

80

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Risk MeasuresStandard Deviation

As of October 31, 2014

9.82% 10.32%

12.58%

18.91%

7.95%8.95%

13.03%

15.38%

9.97% 10.02%

14.47%

16.04%

12.62%13.29%

18.19%

19.87%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception

AIM S&P 500 HBI Russell 2000

81

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Risk MeasuresBeta

As of October 31, 2014

1.16

1.03

0.90

1.12

0.93 0.93

0.81

1.07

0.56

0.650.60

0.78

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception

AIM vs. S&P 500 AIM vs. HBI AIM vs. Russell 2000

82

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Risk-adjusted PerformanceOther measures of portfolio return, adjusted for risk

• Jensen’s Alpha: rp,t - [rf,t +βp x (rm,t – rf,t)]• Shows average portfolio return beyond that predicted by CAPM• Positive alpha indicates excess (abnormal) returns to market risk

• Sharpe Ratio: (rp - rf) / σp

• Measures the reward to total risk• Shows whether portfolio returns are due to increased risk or smart

investment

83

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Risk-adjusted Performance Jensen’s Alpha: Abnormal Returns

As of November 30, 2014

0.4%

1.2%

4.5%

2.8%

6.5%

3.7%

5.7%

2.8%

14.4%

9.7%

8.3%

4.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception

AIM vs. S&P 500 AIM vs. HBI AIM vs. Russell 2000

84

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Risk-adjusted Performance Sharpe Ratio: Excess Returns to Total Risk

As of November 30, 2014

1.9%

2.1%

1.5%

0.6%

2.0%

2.2%

1.2%

0.6%

1.3%

1.9%

1.1%

0.6%

0.2%

1.4%

0.9%

0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception

AIM S&P 500 HBI Russell 2000

85

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Sector AllocationsInherited portfolio emphasized technology

(1) Portfolio allocations as of inheritance on April 29, 2014

Inherited AIM Portfolio1 Heaviest Industries1

42%

15%

11%

3%

14%

3%

8%4%

Technology EnergyAgriculture IndustrialsConsumer Discretionary Consumer StaplesHealthcare Transportation

19%

28%

17%

19%

16%

Technology Sector Breakdown

Computers Software Telecommunications

Internet Semiconductors

29%

46%

24%

Energy Sector Breakdown

Renewable Energy Oil & Natural Gas Pipeline Oil Refinery

86

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Sector AllocationsNew portfolio emphasizes technology and energy

(1) Portfolio allocations as of final trades on November 24, 2014

New AIM Portfolio1 Shifts in Heaviest Industries1

33%

25%

8%

4%

8%

4%

9%

4% 4%

Technology Energy Agriculture

Industrials Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples

Healthcare Transportation Defense

26%

38%

24%

13%

Technology Sector Breakdown

Computers Software Internet Semiconductors

16%

34% 34%

16%

Energy Sector Breakdown

Renewable Energy Oil & Natural Gas Pipeline

Offshore Drilling Oil Refinery

87

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Performance Attribution Analysis

Allocation: Ability to effectively allocate assets to various sectors

Selection: Ability to select securities within a sector relative to a benchmark

Net Management Effect = Allocation + Selection

88

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Performance vs S&P 5001 Year

As of October 31, 2014

1.27%1.02%

(0.15%)

0.13%

0.69%0.85%

2.50%

(0.04%)

0.29%

0.62%

(0.01%)

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

Financials Health Care Utilities ConsumerDiscretionary

ConsumerStaples

Energy InformationTechnology

Materials TelecommServices

Industrials Other

Sector

Allocation Effect Selection Effect Total Net Management Effect

89

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Performance vs S&P 5003 Year

1.17%

1.50%

0.22%

(0.39%)

(0.07%)

0.50%

2.48%

0.11% 0.16%

(0.94%)

(0.00%)

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

Financials Health Care Utilities ConsumerDiscretionary

ConsumerStaples

Energy InformationTechnology

Materials TelecommServices

Industrials Other

Sector

Allocation Effect Selection Effect Total Net Management Effect

As of October 31, 2014

90

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Performance vs S&P 5005 Year

1.48%

1.60%

0.02%

0.45%

(0.08%)

0.33%

1.98%

0.20% 0.20%

(1.46%)

(0.03%)

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

Financials Health Care Utilities ConsumerDiscretionary

ConsumerStaples

Energy InformationTechnology

Materials TelecommServices

Industrials Other

Sector

Allocation Effect Selection Effect Total Net Management Effect

As of October 31, 2014

91

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Best and Worst PerformersTrailing Twelve Months

Top 5 Performers Bottom 5 Performers

Company Name Industry Return

Apple Inc. Technology 59.7%

Intel Corporation Technology 45.6%

Covanta Holding Corp. Energy 41.9%

Gilead Sciences Inc. Health Care 40.4%

UnitedHealth Group Inc. Health Care 34.8%

Company Name Industry Return

World WrestlingEntertainment Inc.*

Consumer Discretionary (46.6%)

Deere & Company* Agriculture (5.4%)

Schlumberger Limited* Energy (3.4%)

Motorola Solutions, Inc.* Technology 4.2%

Google Inc. Technology 5.5%

As of November 21, 2014* Denotes companies that have been in the portfolio for less than twelve months, and the holding period return is calculated instead (since April 22, 2014)

92

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Portfolio TurnoverAdditions & Deletions

Portfolio DeletionsPortfolio Additions

Company Name Industry Market Value

Atwood Oceanics Energy $440,105

Ford Motor Co. Automotive $447,470

Las Vegas Sands Consumer Discretionary $446,390

Lockheed Martin Defense $441,636

Seadrill Ltd. Energy $512,640

Company Name Industry TTM Return

Market Value

Corning, Inc. Technology 24.4% $366,100

Danaher Corp.* Industrials 13.9% $376,155

Dollar Tree, Inc. Consumer Discretionary 18.0% $404,979

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.*

Consumer Discretionary 21.9% $424,452

Motorola Solutions, Inc.* Technology 4.2% $326,350

Pixelworks, Inc. Technology 16.1% $273,978

PotashCorp. Agriculture 22.1% $395,604

World WrestlingEntertainment Inc.*

Consumer Discretionary (46.6%) $189,440

As of November 21, 2014* Denotes companies that have been in the portfolio for less than twelve months, and the holding period return is calculated instead (since April 22, 2014)

93

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Active ShareIntroduction

% of Portfolio - % of Market = Active Share Contribution

Measure of differentiation between a portfolio and the market

A method used to detect closet indexing

Developed by Martijn Cremers from ND Finance Department and has become

widely used in the financial industry

Higher percentage indicates more active management

Historically, funds with Active Share above 90% outperformed their benchmarks

by 1.13% after fees

94

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Active ShareCurrent Portfolio

As of November 21, 2014

Company Name Ticker Market Value Portfolio Weight S&P 500 Weight Difference

Activision Blizzard Inc. ATVI $444,570 4.07% 0.00% 4.07%Apple Inc. AAPL $552,663 5.07% 2.41% 2.66%Atwood Oceanics ATW $440,105 4.03% 0.00% 4.03%Calumet Specialty Products CLMT $448,640 4.11% 0.00% 4.11%Check Point Software CHKP $485,254 4.45% 0.00% 4.45%Covanta Holding Corp. CVA $434,340 3.98% 0.00% 3.98%Deere & Co. DE $322,159 2.95% 0.28% 2.67%Delphi Automotive DLPH $467,155 4.28% 0.00% 4.28%Ford Motor Co. F $447,470 4.10% 0.43% 3.67%Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD $553,190 5.07% 0.30% 4.77%Google Inc. GOOG/GOOGL $444,009 4.07% 1.22% 2.85%Hain Celestial Group HAIN $416,481 3.82% 0.00% 3.82%IAC/InteractiveCorp IACI $422,435 3.87% 0.00% 3.87%Intel Corp. INTC $466,360 4.27% 1.19% 3.08%Kinder Morgan Inc. KMI $444,486 4.07% 0.00% 4.07%Las Vegas Sands LVS $446,390 4.09% 0.00% 4.09%Lockheed Martin LMT $441,636 4.05% 0.28% 3.77%Microsoft Corp. MSFT $484,598 4.44% 2.03% 2.41%Monsanto Co. MON $446,997 4.10% 0.32% 3.78%Schlumberger Ltd. SLB $489,350 4.48% 0.70% 3.78%Seadrill Ltd. SDRL $512,640 4.70% 0.00% 4.70%Union Pacific Corp. UNP $438,660 4.02% 0.38% 3.64%UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH $464,208 4.25% 0.36% 3.90%Verifone Systems Inc. PAY $378,735 3.47% 0.00% 3.47%

Total $10,911,357 100.0% 9.9% 90.1%

= Securities held in the AIM Portfolio that are not in the S&P 500 95

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General InformationGuest SpeakersSan Francisco TripNewsletterWebsite

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Guest Speakers

• Ed Trubac – Professor Emeritus, Finance

• Jim Hart – Oliver Estate Family Office

• Matthew Curtis – Goldman Sachs Securities

• R.J. Hottovy – Morningstar Equity Research

97

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San Francisco TripStanford Business School

Christine Hoyt

Jim VanHorne

98

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Ryan Sweeney (‘99, AIM VII) – General Partner Tim Connors (‘89) – Founder & Managing Partner

San Francisco TripVenture Capital Firms

99

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Matt Garratt – Senior Director Ryan Nolan (‘01) – Vice President

San Francisco TripCorporate Development and Investment Banking

100

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San Francisco TripHedge Fund Managers

Bill Duhamel – Founder & Portfolio ManagerMatthew Kinsella (‘05, AIM XIX) – Managing Director

101

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San Francisco TripPrivate Equity Firms

Dave Thomas (‘03, AIM XV) – Principal David George (‘06, AIM XXI) – Vice President

102

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San Francisco TripPictures

103

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Notre Dame FootballGame Watch

104

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AIM Newsletter

Newsletter Contents

State of the Economy

Portfolio Performance

Sector Updates

Key Company Developments

Portfolio Composition

Alumni Updates

Trips

Current Class Profile

105

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Home page News and events Current portfolio

About AIM Course overview Instructors Advisory board Historical performance

Current analysts and corresponding stocks

Alumni Recruiting from AIM Career opportunities Social networking

Publications

Website: www.aim.nd.edu

106

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AIM XXXIX would like to thank:‒ The Advisory Board‒ Scott Malpass and the Notre Dame Investment Office‒ Advisors Langley, Reilly, and Trubac‒ Rachel Karnafel

Post-Presentation Agenda:‒ Short break‒ Advisory Board panel discussion

Closing

107

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AIM XXXIX