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Fear as Contagion the Ebola Crisis and Public Fear Networks A System Dynamics Approach Nasser Sharareh Advisor: Professor Sabounchi Systems Science and Industrial Engineering Department Event: System Dynamics Colloquium Albany University - State University of New York 03/17/2015
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Agenda What is Ebola? Introduction Causal Loop Diagram Simulation Models Outputs vs Real Data Interested Parameters Next Steps and Future Research Conclusion [email protected]
Transcript of Advisor: Professor Sabounchi
Fear as Contagion the Ebola Crisis and Public Fear Networks
A System Dynamics ApproachNasser Sharareh
Advisor: Professor Sabounchi Systems Science and Industrial Engineering Department
Event: System Dynamics Colloquium
Albany University - State University of New York
03/17/2015
S3LAgenda
What is Ebola?
Introduction
Causal Loop Diagram
Simulation Models Outputs vs Real Data
Interested Parameters
Next Steps and Future Research
Conclusion
S3LWhat is Ebola?
Endemic• Transmission occur, but the number of cases remains constant
Epidemic• The number of cases increases
Pandemic• When epidemics occur at several continents – global epidemic
Patient Zero: a 2-year old boy
Case Fatality Rate of 50 to 90 percent
Why are we interested in simulating this problem?
S3L
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Total Cumulative Deaths
Total Deaths, GuineaTotal Deaths, LiberiaTotal Deaths, Sierra Leone
WHO Situation Report
Total Deaths: 10689Total Cases: 25791
S3LIntroduction
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) as a Behavioral Disease
Using fear as a leverage or try to remove fear• Just As Well Strategy
Consequences of a Ebola• High death rate
• Economical loss
• Spread of fearo Uncertainty in newso Absence of control over getting infectedo The speed of disease spreading and the mortality rateo Infectivity or Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
S3LDeath Incidence vs Number of Tweets
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Death vs Tweets
Tweets Death
#Ebola facts#Ebola outbreak#Ebola virus#Fighting Ebola#Stop Ebola
Reference: www.Symplur.com, Accessed March 2015http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/cumulative-cases-graphs.html
Disease spread
Fear among thepopulation
Pressure on governorsto close the border
Number of closedborders
Transportion of food andmedical supplies to infected
countries
Direct contact(face-to-face)
Estimation of thenumber infected
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Number ofinfected
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News broadcastsabout disease
Awareness among the countries'people of the spread of disease in
at risk countries
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Information about atrisk countries
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Efforts to preventdisease
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Critical circumstancesfor infected peopleEfforts from human rights
institutes to open theborders
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Hospital preparednessfor confronting disease
Requisite equipment &team readiness
Number ofinfected staff
Staff satisfaction
Healthcare practitioners'eagerness for battling
disease
Recoverypercentage
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Uncertainaty aboutdisease
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Public activities insocial networks
Attention fromhealthcare practitioners
Healthcare practitioners'efforts to increase public
knowledge
Inaccurateperceptions of disease
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Number of infectedreported
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Efforts of related organizationsto communicate with the public
about Ebola
Released facts &statistics about Ebola
Difficulties for people whodon't underestand analytics
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Significance of usingfear as a leverage
Use of fear todrive action
Understanding of thesituation severity
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-Visually illustrating risks& symptoms via pictures
Public knowledgeabout disease
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Comparison between thedeath from Ebola & other
disease
Public awareness of the lowpossibility of becoming
infected and dying
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Usage of the flushot
Probability ofgetting sick
False alarm
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Awareness of theseverity of the situation Time it takes to get
used to the situation
Dealing withsituation
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Panic and anxiety
Probability oftrasmitting fear
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R4
Public contacttension/angst+
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Avoidance of public spacewhen sick (because of
disease or flu)
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S3LDealing With Situations
Reference: www.Symplur.com, Accessed March 2015
S3LTwitter Data of Healthcare Worker tweets
Reference: www.Symplur.com, Accessed March 2015
S3LPhase 1
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Comparison between Infected Population vs Cumulative cases from WHO
Getting Infected (V4) Cases (WHO)
S3LPhase 2
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Comparison between Cumulative number of Deaths vs Cumulative number of Deaths from WHO (V4-5)
Death (V 4-5) Deaths (WHO)
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S3LPhase 3
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Comparison between Number of Deaths in the model vs Cumulative number of deaths from WHO
Death (V5) Deaths (WHO)
S3LParameters
Parameter Description Literature Review Value
Total Population Guinea + Liberia + Sirrea Leone 22,136,000
Initial infected Patient Zero 1
Contact Rate In a day 25
Infectivity Probability of becoming infected 0.03
Average DiceaseTime (4,5) 10
Average DiceaseTime For Quarantined Persons 15
Average Recovery time (7,12) 7
Average Recovery time From Quarantined 7
Average Disinfection Time Bed Turnaround Time [0.5,1.5] 2
S3LNext Steps
Dividing Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered population into two groups, and adding the corresponding fear of Ebola to the simulation
Susceptible• Aware
• Unaware (Higher irrational behavior, higher contact rate, and infectivity)
Infected• Symptomatic
• Asymptomatic (Incubation time (2,21) with the average of 8-10 days)
Recovered• Completely (People who recover from Ebola infection develop antibodies that last for at least
10 years)
• Partially (a few weeks to a few months)
S3LPotential Future Research
Reservoir• Human
o Caseso Carrier
•Animalo Gorillaso chimpanzeeso Bat
•Non-Living
S3LConclusion
The reason of invalidity of previous models (Arreola, McDuffy, Mejia, & Oliver, 1999), (Kiskowski, 2014) is the absence of• Sociocultural and psychological effects
• Behavioral effect
• Intervention
Most important key points in controlling the pandemic• Public Perception
• Risk Management
