Advertising is Dead. Long Live Advertising.
-
date post
18-Oct-2014 -
Category
Education
-
view
3.266 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Advertising is Dead. Long Live Advertising.
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart1
Advertising is Dead! Long Live
Advertising!IESE / IME Advanced Digital Media Strategies
May 12, 2010New York City
com
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart2
Double-Think
…the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.
F Scott Fitzgerald
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart3
First Step: Know your Audience – Are you?
Buy Side(Ad Buyer, Marketer,
etc.)
Sell Side(Ad Seller, Publisher,
etc.)
Enabler(Content Creator, technology, etc.)
Investor(M&A, Venture, etc.)
1 2
3
4
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart4
First Step: Your Reaction to Digital Media
Love It• Best thing that’s
ever happened• Can’t get enough
Hate It• Over hyped• Who needs it• Like to turn off
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart5
1. Why Advertising is Failing2. What is Advertising’s Exciting Future3. Where to Look in the Future
3 Areas To Cover Today
Items I Could Speak To:Digital Media – SalesDigital Media – BuyingAdvertisingSocial MediaMobile MediaStart upsVenture Capital
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart6
IT’S TOO BAD ADVERTISERS ARE NOT GOOD AT ADVERTISING.
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart7
slide title37% of Ad Spending is
Wasted
In the U.S., an estimated $112 Billion is Wasted
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart8
Researched $1 Billion in Ad Spend
1.1 Million Consumers Surveyed
Note: Of the 30 studies, 25 in U.S., 5 in EU
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart9
What Did Learn From the Research?
Motivations
36%
Messaging Media
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart10
ING’s 4 Year Campaign: Fresh Thinking
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart11
Today’s Ads For INGSimplifies A Complicated Financial World
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart12
Messaging MediaMotivations
36%
More, What Do We Know?
31%
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart13
How Big A Difference Can Creative Make?
BA
Source: IAB Cross Media Study
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart14
Purc
hase
Inte
nt
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
2%
20%
Creative Makes A BIG Difference
Source: IAB Cross Media Study
B
A
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart15
And Just to See It Again
B
A
Source: IAB Cross Media Study
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart16
Messaging Media
Yes, It’s That Bad, and Worse
Motivations
36% 31% 83%
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart17
The Truth Is…Marketing is Hard
Suppose you have 5 options:• 5 Brand Positionings • 5 Customer Segmentations• 5 Ad Creative Approaches• 5 Magazine Schedules/Plans• 5 Online Plans
3,125 Combinations
10 to 10th = 1 billion combinations
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart18
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart19
What Sticks was Written to Be…
A Clarion Call* to Marketers for Change
Clarion Call * A clarion call is a powerful request for action or an irresistible mandate. Frequently used in a religious context, or in a political context, in that a politician issues a challenge for action from the public.
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart21
Donny Deutsch Quote
“We did a wonderful spot…on the Superbowl… for Mitsubishi Gallant...that stops at the end and [says] go to “seewhathappens.com.”
We got about 600,000 clicks.
Was that great or that not great?
We told the client it was great, so it was great.”
[nervous laughter]
− Donny Deutsch speaking to 500 Marketers…Deutsch is the 14 largest agency in the US
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart22
slide titleSo What Do We Do?
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart23
What Did Google Do So Right$20 Billion in Revenue Right!
Focu
sed
on
EFFE
CTIV
ENES
S!
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart24
Google’s Revenue Per Page
$68.00 eCPM$0.54 CPC x 17% click thru x 74% sell thru
What is That Worth to Google?
Source: Jordan Rohan, Analyst at RBC
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart26
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Frequency or Budget
Respect Diminishing Returns:It’s a Law of Physics in Media
% o
f Bra
nd Im
pact
Awar
enes
s, Im
age
or
Purc
hase
Inte
nt
Diminishing Returns
1
23
45
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart27
Heaviest Online Quintile GarnersHalf the Ad Imps
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al Im
pres
sion
s
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
5% 6%11%
19%
58%
Avg.Freq: 1.0 2.1 3.2 5.5 25.0
LightUsers
All other quintiles
HeavyUsers
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart28
Putting in Frequency Caps Greatly Improves PerformanceIncreased
reach by 72%
+50% to 70% in Ad
Effectiveness
Series1-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
10% 12%21%
29% 29%
LightUsers
All other quintiles
HeavyUsers
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al Im
pres
sion
s
Frequency Cap of 3
implemented
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart29
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
% A
ided
Aw
aren
ess
Even Bigger Came from Adjusting the Marketing Mix
Introducing New Menu Item: Grilled Chicken Flatbread Sandwich
Ad Frequency (or Budget or Time)
5pt Gain!
TV & Radio
Point of Diminished
Returns
20% ofBroadcast Budget
Reinvested 13.6%
in Online
Cut6.4%
Online + Broadcast
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart30
Optimizing Each Campaign Is High Value
Same Media Budget 310% IncreaseSource: Insight Express
Imps (M)Brand
PerformanceContri-bution
Creative 1 10.0 -15.9% (1.59) Creative 2 10.0 13.8% 1.38 Creative 3 10.0 11.3% 1.13
Total 30.0 0.92
Imps (M)Brand
PerformanceContri-bution
Creative 1 -- -- --Creative 2 15.0 13.8% 2.07 Creative 3 15.0 11.3% 1.70
Total 30.0 3.77
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart31
We CAN Really Impact Ad Effectiveness
Low High1. Cut out International impressions 18% to 43%2. Manage Frequency 50% to 70%3. Capitalize on Time of Day/DoW 10% to 15%4. Ad Size matters 20% to 54%5. Page Placement really matters 6% to 350%6. Creative is “mission critical” 0% to 400%
Total Gain Possible: 0% 2910%
+0% to INFINITY
increase in Ad Effectiveness
+0% to INFINITY
increase in Ad EffectivenessInsights from the What Sticks’ Research
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart32
WHAT IF WE GOT ADVERTISING RIGHT?
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart33
“Most Important Car Launch in Ford’s History.” Bill Ford
slide titleFord F-150 Case Study
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart34
The F-150 Online Ads
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart36
Online = 10X Value
Interpretation: If it cost Roadblock $1 (indexed at 100) to increase purchase consideration, then it cost $1.35 for Online, $4.56 for magazine and $11.04 to TV to achieve the same increase.
Brand Metric: Purchase
Consideration (top 2 box)
Relative Cost Index Relative Cost
TV 1104 $11.04Magazine 456 $4.56Roadblock 100 $1.00Online 135 $1.35
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart37
Does “Getting It Right”, Impact Sales
Before: Cost of Portal Home Page Take-Over ad in study: $500,000
Today: Cost of Portal Home Page Take-Over ad:
$2,500,000
Ford Media Mix *
* Approx. $200 Million Budget
Base Plan
2.5% Onlin
e
6% Onlin
e0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% New Mix Added +$1,350,000,000 in U.S. Truck sales $$$
New Mix garnered
$750,000,000 in
U.S. Truck sales $Tr
aditi
onal
Med
ia(T
V, M
agaz
ines
)
Online
Online
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart38
What Sticks’ Three Steps
1. Universal Agreement to Goals
2. Have a Back Up Plan (Plan B)
3. Know the Value of each Dollar
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart39
70-20-1070% budget to what you know works20% to innovating off of what works10% to brand new ideas
1. Effectiveness2. Efficiency
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart40
SNEAK PEEK AT THE FUTURE
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart41
slide titleThe Change is Seismic
“The country’s third-largest advertiser, General Motors is getting ready to shift fully half of its
$3 billion budget into digital and one-to-one
marketing within the next 3 years.” Advertising AgeMarch 17, 2008
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart42
slide titleBut What to Do?
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart43
slide titleAnd How to Do It?
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart44
slide titleThe State of Advertisers?
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart45
1.Fragmentation2.Frugality3.Fast(er)
3 Broad Media Trends Today
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart46
20061. Newspapers2. Magazines3. Email4. Broadcast TV5. Radio6. CD Player7. Cable TV8. Personal Computer9. Satellite Television10. Internet11. Cellphone12. DVD Players13. Satellite Radio14. MP3 Players15. TivoDVR16. Slingbox17. iPod18. Blogs19. Online Video20. Mobile Internet21. Console Video Games22. PC Video Games23. MMORP Games24. Mobile Games25. Text Messaging26. Mobile Video27. Download Movies28. Podcasts29. Instant Messaging30. Social Networks
2006
More Options Than Ever
19661. Newspapers2. Broadcast TV3. Magazines4. Broadcast Radio5. Eight Track
19961. Newspapers2. Magazines3. Cable TV4. Broadcast TV5. Radio6. Cassette Tapes7. Walkman8. VCR9. Personal Computer10. Console Video Games11. PC Video Games
Fragmented
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart47
People Spend 9 Hours a Day with Media
FragmentedSource: http://www.researchexcellence.com/
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart49
digital advertising more complex than ever and the options more diverse
IM
Display
Outbound communication iPhone apps
Influentials
Microblogging
Online WOM
Video - YouTube
SEO Widgets
Online advertising
Email marketing
SMS/MMS marketing
Microsite development
Seeding
Blogs
RSSCRM
applicationApp
DevelopmentSearch engine
mktg
Streaming
Podcasting
Website Development
Branded entertainment
Viral INTERACTIVE AD CHANNEL
Fragmented
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart51
And the Adoption is Faster than Ever
Ipod
Internet
TV
Radio
0 10 20 30 40
1
3
4
13
38
Source: United Nations Cyber Document, Apple, Facebook
Years to Reach 50 Million Users
60 million new Facebook user inthe last two months of 2009
Faster
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart52
Mobile Internet Outpaces Computer InternetiPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch
Quarters Since Launch
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouchLaunched 6/07
Desktop Internet
Netscape*Launched 12/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-modeLaunched 6/99
Desktop Internet
AOL*V2.0 Launched 9/94
60
50
40
30
20
10
Subs
crib
ers
(MM
)
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Source: Morgan StanleyFaster
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart53
The Twitter Phenomena
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
Registered Users
‘Mill
ions
• Adding 300,000 registered a day
• 180 million uniques a mo.
• 55 million tweets a day
106 million
Source: Twitter April 2010Faster
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart54
Maybe, Someday?
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart55
1. Ad Avoidance2. Social3. Mobile
3 Digital Trends for Tomorrow
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart56
Ad Blocking
Ad Blocking estimated at 7-8%*• up from 2-3% in 2003• eBay reports closer to 10-15%.
Search is lower at 5-6%3 of the top 10 most popular software downloads are ad blockers
Source: DCLK Analysis in 2005
Avoidance
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart58
Cross Site User Breakdown
63% 66%57%
69%51%
74% 68%
19% 14% 26%17%
29%
13% 18%
20% 17% 13% 20% 13% 14%18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Site A (8-27-05thru 4-20-06)
Site B (11-17-05thru 4-19-06)
Site C (9-1-05thru 1-31-06)
Site D (2-14-06thru 4-20-06)
Site E (2-22-06thru 4-01-06)
Site F (2-01-06thru 4-20-06)
Site G (2-01-06thru 4-20-06)
Perc
enta
ge o
f Use
rs
RejectorsInconsistentAcceptors
Cookie Deletion Rates by (anonymous) Site
Avoidance
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart59
People Want Relationships More than Content
Share of Global Online Time Spent, 6/06 – 6/09
% S
hare
of G
loba
l Min
utes
6/06 9/06 12/06 3/07 6/07 9/07 12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Yahoo.com Msn.com Google.com YouTube.com Facebook.om
Facebook – Largest Share Gainer of Online Usage Over Past 3 Years
Source: Morgan Stanley
YouTube
Yahoo!
MSN
Social
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart60
• 76% of consumers visit a social network in a month *
• 17% of time is Social Media **
–Social now represents 22% of display impressions *
Explosion of Social* comScore July 2009** Nielsen 2009
Social
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart61
Social Media is Evan Overtaking Email
Number of Global Users (MM)11/06 – 12/09
Global Minutes Spent per Month (B)11/06 – 12/09
Social Networking Email
Social Networking UsageSurpassed Email = 11/07
900
800
700
600
500
400
30011/06 7/07 3/08 11/08 7/09 11/06 7/07 3/08 11/08 7/09
250
200
150
100
50
0
Social Networking UsersSurpassed Email = 7/09
Source: Morgan StanleySocial
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart62
slide title2010 Year of Mobile
4.6B Mobile Users WW
17% Smartphone's in U.S.
projected @ 46% WW in 2013
Mobile
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart63
Global Web Access is Going Mobile
20092013
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
Mobile Web
Total Internet
Mobile WebTotal Internet
Forrester 2009Mobile
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart64
What Does the Future Hold for Social Media?
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart65
Welcome to Double Think
In the novel 1984, doublethink is simultaneously accepting as correct, two mutually contradictory beliefs.
It is related to, but distinct from, hypocrisy and neutrality. Its opposite is Cognitive Dissonance, where the two beliefs cause conflict in one's mind.
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart66
What Will Historians Say Regarding Advertising?
It was the best of the times, it was the worst of times
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart67
What Sticks’ Three Steps
1. Universal Agreement to Goals
2. Have a Back Up Plan (Plan B)
3. Know the Value of each Dollar
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart68
70-20-1070% budget to what you know works20% to innovating off of what works10% to brand new ideas
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart69
Industry On Brink of Change
I cannot say whether things will get better if we change; what I can say is they must change if they are to get better.
− Georg Christoph Lichtenberg18th-century German scientist,
satirist and Anglophile
[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart70
[email protected]+1 631 702 0682
thank you!
com
www.twitter.com/gregstuart
www.facebook.com/stuartnyc
www.veoh.com/users/gregstuart
www.linkedin.com/in/gregstuart
www.gregstuart.comwww.gregstuartspeaker.com
Mansavesdog.wordpress.comwww.slideshare.net/gregstuart
Blog:
Website:Speakersite: