Advancing Public Relations Measurement Public Relations Measurement September 19, 2012 David Geddes,...
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Advancing Public
Relations Measurement September 19, 2012
David Geddes, Ph.D.
Managing Director
Geddes Analytics LLC
Chair, Institute for PR
Measurement Commission
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Agenda
Part I: PR measurement today
▫ Standards
▫ A standard framework
Part II: PR measurement tomorrow
▫ Predictive analytics
▫ Building organizational value
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1 Begin with theory
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Message
sender
Send
Originate
Encode
Transmission medium
or channel
1
2
3
Message
recipient
Receive
Understand
Decode
3
2
1
Noise
N N
N
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2 Translate to practice
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Activities
Outputs
Reception
Outtakes or
PR outcomes
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Send
Originate
Encode
Transmission
channel
Receive
Understand
Decode
Recip
ient
Sender
Act Business results
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Activities
• What did you do?
• Control by PR
• Visible
• Operational efficiency
▫ Staff time
▫ Budget
• Use: PR group, CFO
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Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
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Outputs
• Message availability
to target audiences
▫ Media analytics
▫ Social media analytics
▫ Other (events, etc.)
• Correlate with activities
• Use: Within PR group
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Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
Outputs
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Reception
• Handle PR outputs
• Manipulate outputs
• Involvement with
outputs
• Correlate with
activities
• Is this engagement?
• Use: Within PR group
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Outputs
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
Reception
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Outtakes
• Cognitive change
▫ Awareness
▫ Understanding
▫ Perceptions
▫ Advocacy
• Use: CMO, marketing
and communications
executives
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Outputs
Reception
Comms results
Activities
Business results
Outtakes
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Communications
results
• Specific, desired
behaviors
• Precursor to business
value
• Link to outcomes, etc.
• Use: CMO, marketing
and communications
executives
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Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Activities
Business results
Comms results
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Business results
• Tactical, consumer results
• Strategic business results
• ROI
• Statistical methods
• Use: CEO, CMO, business
unit leaders
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Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Activities
Business results
Comms results
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3 Influence and
engagement
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Engagement 1
• Where does it fit?
▫ Reception
▫ Handling
• What is it?
▫ Precursor to cognitive
change
▫ Upstream
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Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
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Engagement 2
• Where does it fit?
▫ Relevance
▫ Relationships
▫ Advocacy
• What is it?
▫ Result of cognition
▫ Downstream
▫ Precursor to results
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Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
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Influence 1
• Where does it fit?
▫ Reception
▫ Information availability
• What is it?
▫ Precursor to cognitive
change
▫ Upstream
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Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
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Influence 2
• Where does it fit?
▫ Outtake
• What is it?
▫ Result of cognition
▫ A new way of thinking
▫ Downstream
▫ Precursor to results
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Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
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Predictive analytics
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The situation today
• Companies monitor traditional and social
media…
▫ But don’t know what media messages
actually change opinions and drives
behaviors
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The situation today
• Companies probe the marketplace via
surveys and media listening platforms,
but …
▫ Cannot look ahead
▫ Risk getting blindsided
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The situation today
• Monthly measurement reports give a look
backwards, but …
▫ Cannot evaluate possible scenarios
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Today’s challenge
Passive monitoring
Passive listening
Active communications
intelligence
Competitive advantage
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▫ Analyze past data
▫ Understand what really drives change
▫ Link social / traditional media to business
outcomes
▫ Build systems to give a look ahead
▫ Facilitates responsive management
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Case studies
Toyota recall crisis
Consumer sentiment about the economy
Teenage smoking behavior
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1. Toyota recall crisis
• Key questions
1. What shapes opinion about the Toyota brand?
2. Can we predict brand reputation from media?
• Data
▫ Predictor variables
News, online, blogs, forums … no broadcast
▫ Dependent variable
Brand reputation
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All media
R2 = 0.84
Survey
− Model
Positive documents
Negative documents
Positive opinion
Neutral opinion
Negative opinion
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2. Consumer economic sentiment
• Key questions
1. What shapes consumer opinions about the economy:
media or marketplace experience?
2. Can we predict consumer sentiment from media alone?
• Data
▫ Predictor variables:
AP wire and Washington Post
▫ Dependent variable:
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
▫ 1977 to 2007
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Key results
▫ We can predict based
on media alone
▫ Models based work
over long time period
▫ Media play primary
role in shaping
opinion about their
economic well-being
▫ Shelf life of
information near zero
Training data
Test data
Training and test data
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3. Teenage smoking
Key questions
• Can we predict teenage
smoking behavior from
media alone?
• Does public policy affect
smoking behaviors?
• Do anti-smoking
campaigns work?
Data
• Predictor variables:
▫ Newspapers, Google
newsgroups
▫ 10 messages
▫ Cost per pack
• Dependent variable:
▫ Monitoring the Future
nationwide surveys
(http://monitoringthefutur
e.org/)
• 1991 to 2002
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Key results
▫ We can predict
behaviors based on
media alone
▫ Cost improves prediction
▫ Attitude that cigarettes
are hard to get improves
prediction
▫ Anti-smoking campaigns
and policy changes work
− Predicted smoking ☐ Reported smoking
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The InfoTrend™ Model
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Powerful yet simple: basic structure
Neutral Positive Negative
K3 K4
K2 K1
Negative message force
Positive message force
Step I
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Minimal ideodynamic model
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Do not try
this at home
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Data requirements
Predictor variables
• Multi-channel
• Sentiment scores
• Messages tagged
Outcome variables
• Survey data
• Behavioral data
• Business data
• Must show change
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Concluding remarks
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What have we learned?
•Media Outcomes
▫ Sentiment
▫ Messages
•But … random variability
▫ What does this mean for
communications>
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Prediction and forecasting
© New York Times
• Early enough to take action
• Probable vs. improbable
• Scenario planning and
simulation
• Strategic responsiveness
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• Michael Raynor. 2007. The Strategy Paradox: Why Committing to Success Leads to
Failure. New York: Doubleday.
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