Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin Winter Weather Climatology and Forecasting.
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Transcript of Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin Winter Weather Climatology and Forecasting.
![Page 1: Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin Winter Weather Climatology and Forecasting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081513/56649e415503460f94b32643/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Winter WeatherClimatology and Forecasting
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Review of winter precipitation types and hazards
Climatology• Snowfall• Freezing Rain
Forecasting Challenges
Freezing Rain• 4-5 December 2002 Carolina Ice Storm• Forecasting
Lake-Effect Snow• Physical Processes• Forecast Factors
Mountain Snow Storms• 10-11 April 2005 Colorado Snow Storm• Forecasting (all snow storms)
Winter WeatherClimatology and Forecasting
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Winter Weather Precipitation TypesSnow:
• Occurs when air temperatures remain below freezing through the atmospheric depth
• Aggregates of ice crystals that grow in size via collisions as they fall
• Type of ice crystals are a function of the air temperature and supersaturation at time of development
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Winter Weather Precipitation TypesSleet:
• Develops when falling snow encounters a “shallow” layer of warm air deep enough for the snow to completely melt and become rain
• The raindrops then passes through a “deep” layer of freezing temperatures, deep enough for the raindrops to freeze before reaching the ground
• Do not confuse sleet with hail, they form by completely different processes.
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Winter Weather Precipitation TypesFreezing Rain:
• Develops when falling snow encounters a “deep” layer of warm air, deep enough for the snow to completely melt into raindrops
• The rain then passes through a “shallow” layer of cold air just above the surface and the drops cool to temperatures below freezing
• The drops do not freezing before reaching the ground. Rather, they become supercooled
• Upon striking the frozen ground, the drops instantly freeze, forming a thin layer of ice (hence, freezing rain)
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Winter Weather HazardsBlizzards:
• Definition: All of the following criteria must be satisfied• Blowing snow• Gale force winds (>34 knots) for at least 3 hours• Air temperature less than 0.0ºC (< 32ºF)• Visibility less than 1/4 mile
• There is no total snowfall criteria, however most blizzards have considerable snowfall totals
• Heavy snowfall limits travel, and effectively paralyzes large regions for several days
Ice Storms:
• No official definition• Occur when significant freezing rain accumulates
• Can cause extremely hazardous road conditions, down large trees and power lines, and immobilize large cities for several days or weeks
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
North American Snowfall ClimatologyWhere does snowfall occur?
• Kluver (2007)
• Used quality controlled data from NWS cooperative stations and Canadian surface observations
• Computed mean snowfall amounts on a 1 x1 grid using interpolated daily snowfall data from 1949-1999
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
North American Snowfall ClimatologyWhere does snowfall occur?
Annual mean snowfall(1949-1999)
Note: 1000 mm is roughly equivalent to 40 inches
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
North American Snowfall ClimatologyWhere does snowfall occur?
Maximum annual snowfall(1949-1999)
Note: 1000 mm is roughly equivalent to 40 inches
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
North American Snowfall ClimatologyWhere does snowfall occur?
Minimum annual snowfall(1949-1999)
Note: 1000 mm is roughly equivalent to 40 inches
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
North American Snowfall ClimatologyWhere does snowfall occur regionally?
Mean annual snowfall (1949-1999)
Note: 1000 mm is roughly equivalent to 40 inches
Pacific Northwest Northeast
Charlotte region~200 mm = 8 in
What are thesemaxima?
What are thesemaxima?
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
North American Snowfall ClimatologyWhere does snowfall occur during El Nino and La Nina?
More snowfall during El Nino More snowfall during La Nina
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
U.S. Freezing Rain ClimatologyWhere does freezing rain occur?
• Robbins and Cortina (1996)• Compiled reports of freezing rain during a 9 year period (1982-1990)
• Identified Four Regions: Pacific NW (rain falling through cold valley air)Central US (associated with CO leeside lows)New England (associated with nor’easters)Mid-Atlantic (associated with cold-air damming)
Typical Locations of Freezing Rainin a Mid-Latitude Cyclone
Freezing Rain Events (1982-1990)
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Forecasting Winter WeatherChallenges:
• Precipitation type can be very difficult
• Model forecast uncertainty (even 1-2 day forecast errors can be large)
• Zones of heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain can be very narrow
• Zone locations can change very quickly as the system moves and evolves
• A location forecast error of only 50 miles can produce big socio-economic impacts
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Freezing Rain Event: 4-5 December 2002
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Freezing Rain Event: 4-5 December 2002
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Freezing Rain Event: 4-5 December 2002Synoptic Situation:
• A cold front passed through the Carolinas on December 2-3 bringing a very cold air mass into the region
• An intense “cP” anticyclone was located northeast of the Carolinas → its weak easterly flow impinged along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians
• A strong capping inversion below the ridge line (mountain tops) prevented the cold air from being lifted over mountains
• The cold air began to “pile-up” along the eastern slopes, creating a “wedge”
• A cold-air damming (CAD) event developed
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Freezing Rain Event: 4-5 December 2002Synoptic Situation:
• Meanwhile, a cyclone was developing along the Texas Gulf coast and began to move eastward (Type II cyclogenesis)
• This primary cyclone began advecting a deep layer of moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico over the cold air wedge of cold air and a wintry mix of precipitation began to fall
• At the same a time a secondary coastal low developed along the primary low’s warm front (situated over the Carolina coast)
• The coastal low also advected a deep layer warmer moist air eastward over the cold air wedge, contributing to the precipitation formation and the switch from snow to freezing rain
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Freezing Rain Event: 4-5 December 2002
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Freezing Rain Event: 4-5 December 2002
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Freezing Rain Event: 4-5 December 2002
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Freezing Rain Event: 4-5 December 2002
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Forecasting Freezing Rain / Sleet
Partial Thickness Nomograms:
• Use model forecast soundings at a location
• Determine the 1000-850mb thickness• Determine the 850-700mb thickness• Consult the nomogram
• Thickness values on nomograms are location dependent, but basic concept is universal
Nomogram for the Carolina Piedmont → (overlay of 4-5 December 2002 event)
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Lake Effect SnowBasics:
• Localized heavy snowfalls along the lee-coasts of large lakes (e.g. the Great Lakes)
• Occur during the fall and early winter when mean lake temperatures exceed mean land temperatures
• Mean annual snowfalls can exceed 200 inches in narrow zones
Notable snowfalls:
• Greater than 10 inches per hour
• Single Day: 68” Adams NY (Jan 9, 1976)• Storm Total: 102” Oswego NY (Dec 27-31, 66)• Monthly Total: 149” Hooker NY (Jan 77)• Annual Total: 467” Hooker NY (76-77)
Snowfall Totals for November 10-13, 1996
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Lake Effect SnowPhysical Processes:
• Result from cold air flowing over warm (ice-free) lakes• Air acquires heat and moisture via surface fluxes and is destabilized• Capping inversion limits cloud formation over the lake• Frictional convergence and upslope flow along lee-coast provides needed lift• Rising air saturates, develops localized clouds and heavy snowfall
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Lake Effect SnowForecast Factors:
• Instability ←• Fetch• Upstream Moisture• Synoptic-scale Forcing• Topography• Snow/Ice Cover on Lake• Upstream Lakes
Instability:
• Degree of Instability: there needs to be at least a 13ºC difference between the lake temperature and the 850 mb (or 1.5 km) temperature for significant lake effect snowfall
• Depth of Instability: Mixed layer depth must be greater than 100 mb (or 1.0 km)
• Capping inversion: At least a moderate capping inversion must be present
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Lake Effect SnowForecast Factors:
• Instability• Fetch ←• Upstream Moisture• Synoptic-scale Forcing• Topography• Snow/Ice Cover on Lake• Upstream lakes
Fetch:
• Distance air travels over water• Longer fetch, more moisture, more snowfall
• Determine from 850mb wind direction
• Small differences can significantly change the fetch (e.g. Lake Erie)
• 250º wind → 225 mile fetch• 230º wind → 80 mile fetch
Favorable Fetches for Lake Effect Snow
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Lake Effect SnowForecast Factors:
• Instability• Fetch• Upstream Moisture ←• Synoptic-scale Forcing ←• Topography• Snow/Ice Cover on Lake• Upstream Lakes
Upstream Moisture:
• Impacts precipitation potential
• Initially low RH air will arrive at lee coast with less moisture → more difficult to get clouds and heavy snowfall
• Initially high RH air will arrive at lee coast near saturation (due to moisture fluxes), allowing for easy cloud formation and heavy snowfall production
Synoptic–Scale Forcing:
• Cyclonic vorticity advection (PVA) aloft may enhance precipitation by lifting the capping inversion
• Cold air advection (CAA) may enhance the lake effect snowfall by increasing the instability
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Lake Effect SnowForecast Factors:
• Instability• Fetch• Upstream Moisture• Synoptic-Scale Forcing• Topography ←• Snow/Ice Cover on Lake• Upstream Lakes
Topography:
• Provides increased lift that promotes greater cloud formation and local snowfall
• Lake-effects snowfall increases when rapid elevation rises are along lee coast (e.g. Tug Hill Plateau, NY/PA)
• Annual snowfall increases ~10-12 inches for each 100 ft increase in elevation
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Lake Effect SnowForecast Factors:
• Instability• Fetch• Upstream Moisture• Synoptic-Scale Forcing• Topography• Snow/Ice Cover on Lake ←• Upstream Lakes
Snow / Ice Cover on Lake:
• Prevents needed moisture fluxes • Diminishes or ends lake-effect season
• Lake Erie season often ends in late January (lake freezes over)
• Lakes Ontario and Michigan seasons are year round
Note: Colored regions freeze over during winter White regions do not freeze over
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Lake Effect SnowForecast Factors:
• Instability• Fetch• Upstream Moisture• Synoptic-Scale Forcing• Topography• Snow/Ice Cover on Lake• Upstream Lakes ←
Upstream Lakes:
• Impacts the total moisture flux along the fetch
• Frozen upstream lakes limit total moisture arriving at lee coast on downstream lakes
• Less moisture, less snowfall
Numerical simulations of total snowfall
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Snowstorm: 10-11 April 2005
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Snowstorm: 10-11 April 2005
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Snowstorm: 10-11 April 2005Typical Synoptic Situation:
• Weismuller and Howard (1988, unpublished) constructed a climatology of heavy snowfall events in Colorado (1948-1987) • An intense “Four Corners” low develops in association with a plunging west coast trough and upper-level PVA forcing
• An arctic air mass (anticyclone), located north of the heavy snowfall area, produces pre-existing inter-mountain (valley) cold pools or cold air damming (CAD) events
• As the low moves east, it taps the Gulf of Mexico air mass and begins to generate strong moist upslope flows over any CAD
How does the 10-11 April 2005 snow storm compare to this typical situation?
L
H
CAD
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Snowstorm: 10-11 April 2005
00Z 10 April 2005
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Snowstorm: 10-11 April 2005
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Snowstorm: 10-11 April 2005
12Z 10 April 2005
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Snowstorm: 10-11 April 2005
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Snowstorm: 10-11 April 2005
00Z 11 April 2005
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Snowstorm: 10-11 April 2005
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Snowstorm: 10-11 April 2005
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
1000-500 mb Thickness:
• Used to identify the rain-snow line• Small thickness = cold air• Large thickness = warm air
Common threshold is 5400 m (or “540” on a thickness chart) for most areas of the country Threshold varies with station elevation
Forecasting Snow
5400 m
Valid for Low Elevations
Valid for High Elevations
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
10-11 April 2005 Colorado Snowstorm:
Forecasting Snow
Present Weather12Z - 11 April 2005
1000-500mb Thickness12Z - 11 April 2005
5400 m
snow
T < 0ºC
850mb Temperature12Z - 11 April 2005
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Partial Thicknesses:
• 1000-850 mb thickness• 850-700 mb thickness• Used to discriminate between precipitation types near (< 100 km) the rain-snow line• Helps resolve thin warm layers not easily identified by the 500-1000mb thickness
Forecasting Snow
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Other Factors:
Numerical models:
• Determine which model gives the most accurate storm track• Check which model provides an accurate depiction of the early mesoscale structure• Know the model’s low-level temperature biases
Storm / Environment Characteristics:
• Moisture transport → More moisture = More snowfall → Less moisture = Less snowfall
• Moisture Source (impacts snow-water ratio)
• Size/Area of Precipitation Region (large systems = more snow)• Motion of System (slow moving systems = more snow)
• Check the vertical soundings through the region for the structure of any warm and cold layers
Forecasting Snow
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
Summary:
Precipitation types (snow, freezing rain, sleet)Winter weather hazards (blizzards and ice storms)Climatologies (snowfall and freezing rain)
Freezing rain• Synoptic / Physical processes• Forecast factors
Lake Effect Snow• Synoptic / Physical processes• Forecast factors
Mountain Snowstorms• Synoptic / Physical processes• Forecast factors
Winter WeatherClimatology and Forecasting
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Advanced Synoptic M. D. Eastin
ReferencesCortina, J. V., and C. C. Robbins, 1996: A climatology of freezing rain in the contiguous United States. NOAA Tech Report
Kluver, 2007: Characteristics and trends of North American snowfall from a comprehensive gridded dataset. M.S. Thesis, University of Delaware.