Advanced FRED: Doing more with the data

Katrina StierholzJune 7, 2010

Using the scenarios…You’ve learned how to

◦ Add a series ◦ Change units ◦ Set dates ◦ View and download data ◦ Save as pdf, capture the link 

Now we’ll go deeper◦ Review/repeat some from first session◦ Find data series with different data types◦ Transform series◦ Set up user accounts ◦ And, practice working with FRED

FRED data

http://research.stlouisfed.org

One nifty feature: if you are ever unsureof the measure to use for data, this FREDAt a Glance will give you the generallyaccepted way of presenting data. E.g., forCPI, it indicates that the measure is% change from year ago. That can come inhandy at times.

Regional data hasits own categoryCheck

updates

Search for data by category

Discover popular series

On FRED, users can:

Practice FREDI want to understand inflation a little

betterMany economists use CPI (Consumer

Price Index) to evaluate inflationThere are two ways of looking at

inflation:◦Headline (that’s everything)◦Core (takes out food and energy)

So, let’s use FRED to compare the twoPlease do this on your computer with

me

FYI—PPI is theprice index for wholesale prices.

This is the “headline”CPI graph, as an index.To make changes, click on “Edit” Graph

To put the “core CPI” onthis graph, we add a data series

You can either typein significant words,or use the Browsefeature to find data.

We have both indexnumbers on the graph,but I’d like to see thepercent inflation, yearover year.

This is where we change theunits displayed to percentchange from a year ago.

Must be changed on both lines,and then click on Redraw Graph

Core CPI andHeadline CPI. You can see how much more volatile the Headline CPI is, compared to the Core CPI (but that they also move in tandem).

This one on your ownFirst, find Real GDP

◦What is GDP, you ask? The most commonly used measure of our national economy

◦What are the elements that measure GDP? personal consumption expenditures; private domestic investment (investment by

companies and households in big things, like factories or houses);

net exports (exports minus imports); government spending

◦What’s “Real” about it? (See Economic Snapshot from Inside the Vault).

The news release from BEA

Once you’ve found real GDP…We’ll look at Real personal

consumption expenditures and add it to the graph

Then we’ll do a little work to show how to put them on the same line, one as a percent of the other.

Using the data category option

Basic options for graphs

Information about the data

Clicking on any of theoptions here will bringup the graph in its edit form (so you don’t have to just pick“Edit”)

Once you’ve found real GDP…Add Real personal consumption

expendituresClick on “Add a Data Series”

◦Add it to Line 1Then we’ll do a little work to

show how to put them on the same line, one as a percent of the other.

Clearly, personal consumptionis a large part of our GDP. Hmmm… how large?

Here’s where we do a transformationFirst, we actually have to remove

the consumption lineThen, we add the consumption

data to the gdp line (I’ll show you)

Then, we do the math.

Now that we knowabout it, we need to removeit as a separate line and put iton the same line as GDP.

Click on Add Data Series, and Choose to put it on Line 1. Once you indicate that, it will only allowa series with the same frequency

Series choices are now limited to quarterly series.

FRED immediatelybounces you down to the bottom, so youcan fill in the formula,which is based on the“a” and “b” designationabove.

So, I’m dividing real PCE/GDPto show the percent of our GDPthat consists of consumption.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures as a percent of Real GDP

More transformationsWhat percent of the population

that is over 16 is employed?What’s the percent of

unemployed persons who’ve been unemployed for a long time?

Basic payrollemploymentdata

Some changes to help improve readability

Percent of our civilian >16 population that is employed.

To save yourwork, use the “save” featureon nearly anyscreen. Thiswill save whatyou’ve done so you only have todo it once.

Now, a transformation to look at the long-term unemployed

I have peeked, and know that theseries we want are in the householdsurvey section. We could have usedthe search feature… but this works, too

This one will require adding togetherall of the unemployed, and then figuring out the proportion over 27 weeks.

I’m starting with the mostrecently unemployed. I thinkthat will be easier for me toadd the others in order (I can be forgetful). To get started, I click Edit

And, then I just keptadding the series forthe various weeksunemployed to Line 1

Now I have them all, so I need to scroll down to dothe transformation.

So, we can now see how manylong term unemployedthere are as a percentof all unemployed (over 40%, and way more than we’ve seen in past recessions).

Data downloadThis is the

information, downloaded from the FRED page

Notice that I have downloaded the data in the graph (not the original data, but the transformation)

One issue: you can’t have different time periods or frequencies

Great article, great idea

But… even though we have annual GDP and federal debt data, the federal debt data is fiscal year and GDP is calendar year

These would need to be downloaded in Excel and then transformed there

PowerpointTo capture screen shots

◦For now, use <alt> print screen◦Good news! According to web

reports, there will be a screen capture for powerpoint and MS Word in their 2010 versions.

Practice more transformations

GDP per capita (use nominal GDP and divide by population)◦Compare that to some states’ GDP per

capita (those numbers are already in FRED).

Percent of population in the labor force that has been unemployed more than 26 weeks (UEMP27OV / CLF16OV)◦You could add some other durations (so

compare that to the percent that have been unemployed less than 5 weeks)

Keep on…We’d like you to continue practicing with FRED First, if you can (have access to your email), set

up a user account and save your work.Then, here are some possibilities (if you are

looking for ideas)◦ Compare unemployment across a couple (or more)

regions◦ Compare short-term unemployed (less than 5 weeks)

to long-term unemployed (more than 27 weeks)◦ Compare overall retail sales with e-commerce sales

(this can’t be transformed… they are two different frequencies)

◦ Or, check out the St. Louis Fed Stress Index—a new measure of the stress on financial markets.