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Addressing Vulnerabilities to accident, sabotage and terror: Science and Technologies in Secure...
Transcript of Addressing Vulnerabilities to accident, sabotage and terror: Science and Technologies in Secure...
Addressing Vulnerabilities to accident, sabotage and terror:
Science and Technologies in Secure Energy Systems
Richard WilsonMallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics
Harvard University
Special Lecture at the University of Kuwait January 15th 2003
Modern Society is very Vulnerable
in many different ways
Energy systemsComputer Networks
Transportation Networks
USE AN EVENT TREEWe must take into account the
Low (Accident) Probability High Consequence event.
(We discussed this in Lecture 1)
Terrorists will and try to make it more probable
Do not store a lot of fuel in one place
near a lot of people in one place. (Wigner) Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in
remote areas. (In 1848 London decided to keep petroleum
products 30 miles from London bridge in Canvey Island)
Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power.
Hydroelectric DamsMankind has built Ports and
Cities on Estuaries and Rivers
Flood Control Dams and Hydroelectric
Dams are in upper reaches Folsom Dam above Sacramento
Littleton Dam on Connecticut River
Missouri/Missisippi is worse!!
LNG is a fuel almost ready to burn/explode
Just mix with air/oxygen
Typical 17 million gallon tank could be 20 Hiroshimas
Keep your distance.
Ammonia tanks and Ammonium Nitrate storage should also be remote.
In 1990 Dr Adnan Shihab Eldin (outside Kuwait) noted the ammomia tank in
Shuwaikh.If valve opened in a notherly wind, it
would have been lethal to the residents 12 mile away.
Solution (found by a Kuwiat in the country) drain the ammonia to the sea
before Saddam noticed.
Transmission Networks have failed for “trivial” reasons
A relay failure in Canada set off the NE blackout of 1967
A substation failure in Naperville ILL shut down O’Hare airport
Few plans for a major fire at WTC? (FEMA report)
Insulation not tested for durabilityFire and initial impact destroyed all safety
mechanisms (Common mode failure not foreseen!
Train Fire fighters in event trees )
Helicopter fire fighters?Protect buildings by cables from
towers or balloons?
World Trade Center Building Construction inadequate in many
waysPort Authority had its own code
No code for the insulation
Langer and Morse suggest that:Insulation sprayed on rusty beamsMay NEVER have stuck properly
Not as good as asbestosNot inspected again after other
trades did their workThey claim that IF asbestos had been
used building would still stand
Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high.
(expensive but possible;
e.g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the
temperature - time profile with calculation)
We can protect energy systems a bit better but not enoughwe should step back and:
Try to stop terrorists being created
Try to stop terrorists having access
WITHOUT ruining our society
Imagine what a terrorist might do: and
devise a system to make it hard for him to do it.
Stop the event as early in the chain as possible
(dont let trouble spots fester)
Event Tree Analysis
The chain starts even further back:
(1) Creation of a terrorist(2) Terrorist has access to a
vulnerable system(3) Terrorist acts
The best strategy is trying to stop terrorists being created
Trying to prevent access can be done in a variety of ways
Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983).
The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984)
"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of
oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing
us to slavery".
Thomas Jefferson (1774)
One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.
Monachem Begin; terrorist in 1945 leader of Israel 1978
Bourgiba, jailed in Cairo, first President of Tunisia
A rebellion is a Revolution that does
not succeed (Victor Weisskopf) May 1940, I learned unarmed combat.
Was I becoming a terrorist or a Freedom fighter?
30 years ago a friend of mine became a terrorist.
Then he became a freedom fighter
Within 6 months he was a statesman
He did not change. He lives in Bangladesh
Trying to prevent access to facilities by terrorists is never perfect but can be done in a
variety of ways
Use profiling to identify suspicous groups
(BUT studies show that terrorists are just like us)
Keep track of all suspicious activities.
Dont let anyone near anything dangerous (no handguns
shotguns etc)
Fundamental Question
How does the United States have a
Department of Homeland Security with extraordinary
powerswithout it becoming like the
infamous KGB?
USSR society was probably more free from crime.
They did it by fear.
Some terrorists are now educated.
Also some act in concert
Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life.
They will be with us until the end
of the human race.
We must not let terrorism distort our lives.
Other risks are bigger.Car accidents:
45,000/yr vs. 3,500 onceDrugs destroy society more
Security vs. FreedomOur human rights are what makes life worth living.
“If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby.”
Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank.com
Weapons of Mass Destruction Nuclear weapons
Biological Weapons
must be treated differently(Chemical weapons, phosgene
and Mustard gas are more ordinary)
August 1940 I saw a first air raid on London
50 lbs of TNT destroyed a house; killed one person
19441 ton of TNT was a block buster. It destroyed
a city block
19458,000 tons of TNT equivalent destroyed a city
We have 3,000 atomic bombseach ~ 200,000 tons ready to go.
THEY COULD DESTROY CIVILIZATIONLarge consequence: let us keep it low
probability
In 1945 Scientists (e.g Einstein and Szilard) argued for International Control
General Groves argued for overwhelming US strength
Following Eisenhowwer182 nations agreed: not to make nuclear weapons
allow inspections - in exchange for help in peaceful nuclear activities.
GW BUSH seems to prefer Groves approach reversing 57 years of international policy
The world MUST take violations of NPT seriously
BUTif the only country to kill anyone with atomic bombs were to act
unilaterally we would be set back 57 years
But the other countries MUST act with thought and independence.
Kuwaitis please think carefully about it.