Addressing Energy and Environmental Impacts of Urban Transport · waste -- pollution. • Major...
Transcript of Addressing Energy and Environmental Impacts of Urban Transport · waste -- pollution. • Major...
Addressing Energy and Environmental Impacts of Urban Transport
Anumita RoychowdhuryCentre for Science and EnvironmentUrban Mobility India 2010 New Delhi December 3-5, 2010
Growing toxic threat and struggles in cities
• Cities in grip of toxic model of growth: Intensive use of energy and materials leading to huge amounts of waste -- pollution.
• Major health impacts – toxic air causes one death per hour, … Warming impacts
• How can cities reduce public health impacts, achieve low carbon and energy footprints, urban community wellbeing and improve liveability of cities. This is a challenge for urban governance.
Where will the future growth take us?
Toxic air….
Source: Estimated based on CPCB dataSource: Estimated based on CPCB data
Half of the cities have critical level of PM10. NO2 rising in maHalf of the cities have critical level of PM10. NO2 rising in many citiesny citiesEven medium and small sized towns and cities are witnessing phenEven medium and small sized towns and cities are witnessing phenomenal spurt in omenal spurt in pollution as severe as or more than any mega city. pollution as severe as or more than any mega city.
PM10PM10 NO2NO2
Source: Based on NAMP data, CPCB, 1. World Bank 2004,
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10 in
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Standard for residential areas
Action helps to protect public health
* * ***
Evidence of action: Health Benefits: Dip in PM10 leads to 13,000 less premature deaths and reduction in respiratory illness1
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Delhi has lost its gains. After a short respite pollution curve turns upward
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RSPMRSPM Nitrogen Nitrogen dioxidedioxide
Based on CPCB dataBased on CPCB data
More fog and smoggy days in Delhi
Source: Meteorological Watch Office, IMD,
Alveolar macrophage - biomarker of air pollution
Exposed group; Kolkatataxi driver
Increase in AM number
Larger AM – particle laden
Control area: Sundarbans
Source: CNCI
Emerging evidences of health impacts in India……
India and Asia’s unique public health challenge
• The Asiawide review of existing studies show that the estimated health effects are similar to those found in the western countries.
• Risk in south Asia more serious. Science has yet to assess our unique risk factors:
• Extremely high levels of particulates and mixture of pollutants-- the problem of exposure to multiple pollutants
• Impact of poverty: Socio economic variables are not included in health studies to influence public policy. Poor are more susceptible
Understand risk transition
• Double burden of disease. Modern or community risks increasing
• This has important implication for environmental monitoring strategies
Our vulnerability expected to grow. We need strong controls at the early stages of motorisation
Air quality standards are stricter today. This raises the bar of public health protection
Key highlight of the new national ambient air quality standards
• Uniform health based standards for all land-use classes. The current practice of setting separate standards for residential, sensitive and industrial areas discontinued.
• Annual sulphur dioxide and Nitrogen dioxide standards tightened
• Annual NO2 and SO2 standards for designated ecologically sensitive areas introduced
• PM10 standards for industrial areas aligned with the tighter standards for residential areas
• PM2.5 and Ozone standards introduced for the first time
• Standards for air toxics including benzene, benzo (a) pyrene, nickel, and arsenic) introduced. Standard for ammonia continues
Source: CAI ASIA 2008
Our cities in the pincer grip of high pollution, energy guzzling and green house gases…
Insidious link between local air pollution and climate
• Local pollution can enhance the warming effects….Eg, HC + NOx lead to regional ozone but also to background hemispheric ozone; CO becomes CO2 but consumes OH radicals along the way increasing CH4; Diesel PM increases PM10 & PM2.5 & ultrafine PM but also black carbon
• Warming can also enhance local public health impacts …Eg, each increase of 1 degree Celsius caused by carbon dioxide, can enhance PM and ozone build up. The resulting air pollution can lead thousands of additional deaths and many more cases of respiratory illness and asthma etc. (Mark
Jacobson 2008)
Vehicular pollution: High exposureVehicular emissions contribute to significant human exposure. Pollution concentration in our breathe is 3-4 times higher than the ambient air concentration. In densely-populated cities more than 50 – 60% of the population lives or works near roadside where levels are much higher. This is very serious in low income neighborhoods located close to roads.
Poor have a higher prevalence of some underlying diseases related to air pollution and proximity to roadways increases the potential health effects.
In three cities World Bank review found vehicles contributing an average 50% of the direct PM emissions and 70% of PM exposure.
The WHO report of 2005: Epidemiological evidences for the adverse health effects of exposure to transport related air pollution is increasing. Some of the deadliest air toxics, also carcinogens, are related to vehicular emissions. Blamed even for killing foetus.
Public transport users, walkers and cyclists are the most exposed groups – most of them are also poor.
Diesel Car (PM norm)
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Indian metros today (Euro IV). But rest of the country Euro III
Technology challenge Public policy fails to drive emission regulations to reduce exposure
in India
00.050.1
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Petrol cars (>1400cc) Diesel cars (<1600cc)
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cs (g
m/k
m)
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PM (g
m/k
m)
135140145150155160165170175
Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)
CO
2 (g
m/k
m)
Ironic: Rich use diesel subsidy to spew toxic emissionsBut regulations do not force diesel to meet the clean benchmark
NOxNOx PMPM
ToxicsToxics CO2CO2
The government willingly absorbs colossal revenue losses on account of ‘luxury’ use of diesel in cars while people are made to bear the disproportionate burden of its health costs. Emissions vs efficiency remains unresolved…….
Source ARAISource ARAI
Source: ARAI
Technology for co-benefits
Motorized two-wheelers have the smallest energy footprint (60-70 km/litre). But a new two-wheeler can emit more local air pollutant than a new car. Improve technology for co-benefits
CNG Bus Emissions in 2004
0.32
0.009 0.0070
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0.25
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Bharat stage II DieselBus (500ppm max.
sulfur)
Bharat stage II DieselBus +CRT (50ppm
max. sulfur)
Bharat statge II CNGBus + 3 way catalyst
PM
em
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from
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es in
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mm
es p
er k
ilom
etreIn comparison with the warming In comparison with the warming potential of black carbon potential of black carbon emissions from the older diesel emissions from the older diesel fleet, CNG has been less fleet, CNG has been less warmingwarming…….. When black .. When black carbon is taken into account carbon is taken into account ----switch is carbon neutral switch is carbon neutral UptoUpto30% reduction in CO2 (e)30% reduction in CO2 (e)
CNG: Reduced warming CNG: Health benefits
Energy challenge: More car centric growth -more guzzling
Highest fuel consumption in the transport sector of large cities
In all size class of cities personal vehicles – cars and two-wheelers -- guzzle the maximum
Personal vehicles account for about 65 – 90% of the total carbon-dioxide emissions – linked directly with the amount of energy burnt by all vehicles in cities
Cities big in scale and density make pollution control and public transport more efficient…..But efficiency gains can be limited in Indian cities due to poor urban governance…..
Smaller cities need preventive strategies Source Based on Wilbur Smith 2008
Fuel consumption per day in different classes of cities
Vehicles and the heat trap
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Vehicle numbers
CO2 emissions
Source CSE (Data from SIM Air and Wilbur Smith
Number of motorised vehicles co-relate strongly with CO2 emissionsCities with less vehicles have less CO2 emissions
The great guzzle …..Challenge of fuel efficiency
Transport energy demand has grown at 1.2 times the GDP growth rate. Transport sector uses up nearly 40 per cent of total consumption of oil. Fuel consumption by vehicles in 2035 could be six times that of the 2005 level.
Urban car travel consumes nearly twice as energy on average as average urban bus travel; 3.7 times more than the typical light rail or tram; 6.6 times more than average electric urban electric train
By 2030-31 on an average Indians will travel thrice as many kilometers as they traveled during 2000-01.
Shift of freight from railways to trucks: Share of railways down to 26%. Transport energy demand in India would grow even faster if all highways planned are constructed. (WEO 2006)
Cars threaten energy security and climate
Future CO2 increase from transport will be dominated by cars and trucks. (IEA)
Shift from small to big…
Shift towards high end cars expected at a faster rate. SUV market is expected to develop rapidly in future. -- A 10% increase in large vehicle sales roughly result in 2 per cent drop in fleet fuel economy... Adds demand of 17,500 barrels of oil annually. (ICCT)
What are our opportunities?…….Small and low powered cars, two-wheelers are our advantage so
far. How do we protect the baseline….
Source: ICCT 2009
Potential in the market…
Challenge of mobility crisis
…… an increasing share of our daily trips are being made by cars that occupy more road space, carry fewer people, pollute more, guzzle more fuel. They edge out pedestrians, bicycles, cycle rickshaws and buses………..
Positioning the debate• Urban poor has created the
sustainable ecological space in cities.
• But cars taking over that space. Making mitigation difficult
• We have built walkable cities: – TRIPP: 30-60% trips carbon neutral.
Logical in cities where average distance of 85% of travel trips is less than 10 km; nearly 40- 45% is less than 5 km.
• Crucial transition from walking cities to auto cities: Poor remains captive users of sustainable modes. But the urban majority moving away from this choice ….
Modal split for passenger transport in selected countries
Source: 1. First Review of Available Data: Modal Split in Different Countries (2000), Fachgebiet Verkehrsplanung und Verkehrstechnik Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Boltze Institutfür Verkehr Fachbereich 13 Bauingenieurwesen und Geodäsie
2. CO2 EMISSIONS FROM PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN INDIA: 1950-51 TO 2020-21 Sanjay Kumar Singh, IIM Lucknow
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
UK (1998)
France (1998)
Germany (1998)
United States (1997)
Japan (1997)
India* (2001)
Automobile Buses Rail Air*India Note 1: automobile include cars, two wheelers, IPT. Note 2: Passenger mobility in India relies heavily on rail and road. Passenger travel by air and water is negligible in comparison to rail and road.
Mobility transitionMobility transition
Source: RITES 2008
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All trips Only Vehicular Trips
Valu
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age 2001
(2007 - 2008)
India at the risk of losing its strength
Nation-wide increase in passenger mobility can change the modal split in favour of personal vehicles.
Nationally the share of public transport may drop from 75.7% in 2001-02 to 44.7% in 2030-31.
Only integrating the needs of the urban majority in the planning can help to reverse this trend
Delhi: Sustainable modes under stress
• Emerging policies…. National Urban transport Policies….Integrated energy Policy, National Climate Action Policy…..
• Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission is a reform based funding scheme. Mandates reforms in cities. This infrastructure investment could have leveraged NUTP principles. Reform agenda includes:– Set up Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority for integrated
planning– Implement parking policy as a demand management policy– Create public transport fund through higher taxes on personal cars,
parking revenue, advertisement revenue, road pricing strategies,property tax etc.
Some examples from other cities: Delhi: Air Ambience Fund from environment cess on diesel fuel; Surat: dedicated urban transport fund from parking revenue, property tax, etc.
– Implement non-motorised transport policy– Future funding to be linked to comprehensive Mobility plan for
cities….
Whither policy?
But…..
Analysis of its projects sanctioned for transport until the beginning of this year shows that the investment is heavily biased towards road infrastructure. More than 71% of the transport related projects are road related projects.
Barely any investment in cycling and walking infrastructure.
Urban transport projects - segment wise distribution
71%
14%
4%11%
Road Related Projects Mass Transit Parking Other transport
Funding ignores sustainable modes
Source: CSE
Transport funds largely tied with only high end transport solutions
Delhi: Since 2001-02, upsurge in fund allocation for transport in annual budget plans. But of late the share allocated for public transport has declined.
Change the practice
Percentage share of Public Transport in Total Transport Allocation
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Budget Year
perc
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hare
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Tra
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Others
Public Transport
Percentage share of public transport in total transport allocation
Percentage allocation to Transport
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Source: CSE
How do we leverage our advantage…
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Cities with higher walking and cycling have significantly low CO2 levelsStudies show a nominal increase of walk trips by 5% can cut CO2 by at least 10% (CAI)
Source CSE
Protect zero emissions modes: Improve walkways
Legislate right to walk: Should we have comprehensive road users act?
Enforce pedestrian guidelines for new roads as well as rebuild, beautification of existing roads –transform the entire city network
Make pedestrian plans mandatory to infrastructure funding. Public transport plan needs linkage with pedestrian plan
Reform and mandate guidelines for pedestrian infrastructure
Urban local bodies must conduct walkabilityand safety audits
Need zero tolerance policy for accidents
Involve communities on decisions on use of road space
Need pedestrian network plan
Adopt traffic volume reduction plan Source: CSE
Take the busTake the bus…………Bus transport can make a big difference…• BANGALORE: An increase in bus share from 62% to 80% saves
equal to 21% of the fuel consumed in the base case. Leads to 23 per cent reduction in total vehicles and frees-up road space equivalent to taking off nearly 418,210 cars from roads. CO2 emissions can drop by 13 per cent. PM can drop by 29 per cent and NOx 6 per cent.
• DHAKA: An increase in bus share from 24% to 60% saves fuel equal to 15 per cent of the fuel consumed in the base case. Frees up road space equivalent to removing 78,718 cars from the roads. CO2 emissions drops by 9 per cent. PM can drop by 13 per cent and NOxless than 1 per cent.
• COLOMBO: A increase in bus share from 76% to 80% can save 104,720 tonnes of oil equivalent, or 3% of the fuel consumed in the baseline case. This means 5% reduction in total vehicles and freeing up of roadspace equivalent to removing 62,152 cars.
Reallocate road space. More space to low carbon and clean modes and majority commuters
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DTC, Delhi BEST, Mumbai CSTC, Kolkata MTC, Chennai
1990-91. 2006-07.
Falling load factorDespite the growing demand buses are carrying below their capacity
-0.8
-7.7
-1.7-3.5
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9.4
-10-8-6-4-202468
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Mum
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Pun
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Ban
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reAvg
gro
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in b
us fl
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007)
The Annual Average Growth in % in STU Bus Fleet (2000 to 2007)
Other countries have begun to assess co-benefits of their transportation projects as a measure of
success
Fuel savings and CO2 savings of a BRT corridor in Mexico City
ADB 2009
Three-wheelers and cycle rickshaws are part of the solution….High share of short trips make para transit convenient and affordable. Even buses are not convenient for short distances.
But most cities have harsh policies against them
Delhi is reorganising this sector:-- All three-wheeler drivers to get public service vehicle badge and smart cards. -- GPS connectivity to improve the meters and compliance. -- In-use vehicle fitness and emission testing systems --Integrate with mass transit system.
Cycle rickshaws policy soon
Informal intermediate transport at risk from high end transport
Buses taxed higher than cars……….
2,90,431
30,521
2,725
5.69
2.39
0.44
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Two wheeler Cars Bus0
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Tax per vehicle-km
Annual tax
If not corrected and bus fares are raised, a substantial public transport ridership can be lost to two wheelers that have a running cost of a mere Re 1/km
This must be rationalised….
Poor understanding of restraint measures
• Insatiable demand for land for parking: Parking space needed for the car fleet in Delhi is 10% city’s urbanised area. Delhi’s forest cover -- is 11.5 %.
• Inequitous use of land: A car is allotted 23 sq m for parking. A poor family is given 18 sqm of land under low cost housing scheme.
• Free to a pittance for parking: Willingness of the car owners to pay for parking is Rs 5-10/hour. But if pegged to the cost of providing parking it should be Rs 30-40/hour. --Hidden subsidy for the car owners….
Travel and CO2 emissions
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North Americans(mainly by cars &
planes)
Brazilians (cars/bus) Tanzanians (mainlyby foot/bus/cycle)
Indians (mainly byfoot/bus/cycle)
mile
s pe
r day
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tons
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rans
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CO
2 pe
r yea
r
Average travel per day
Transport related CO2emissions in tons a year
Source: WBCSD and MOUD data
Transport infrastructure (roads, railway, airports) locks up enormous amount of carbon
Transport infrastructure and per capita CO2 emissions in different countries
Our cities need upscaled transitionAvoid future emissions
Shift to sustainable modes of mobilityThink people
Mobility needs of the poor and urban majority are the defining parameters for mobility planningInclusive planning can protect public transport, para-transit, walking and cycling – the solutions for climate and public healthKeep jobs and home close: Build compact cities to reduce distances, demand for travel and vehicle usage. Integrate land-use planning
Leapfrog technology to reduce exposure to toxic emissions
Fund the transition: Need tax measures to allocate resources efficiently for the larger good. Rationalise transportation related taxes
Design travel demand management measures – Parking policy is amongst the first steps
Need institutional measures for integrated planning and implementation
Towards livable cities……
Thank You