Adding geospatial components to socioeconomic data and analysis

International Food Policy Research Institute

Night Lights and Urban Growth: Measuring Urbanization from Outer Space

Zhe Guo, Liangzhi You

International Food Policy Research Institute

Agro-Geoinformatics International Conference

George Mason University, Aug 07-11, 2017

Urban growth is reshaping agricultural value chains

• Drivers of change: Increased commercial flows of agricultural goods, diet transformation, greater role of commercial markets

• “Quiet revolution” in staple-food value chainso Increased investment in technology & modern inputs

o Greater vertical integration with growing scale of midstream & retail

sections

o Rise of mobile phone use by farmers for market information

• Policies should account for growth in post-farmgate segments and urban markets

The impacts of Urban growth is beyond agricultural value chains

▪ However, urban growth can also have other impacts on rural areas, such as on demand for education, rural infrastructure and commercialization, and availability of new technology.

▪ What is Urban? How to measure urban growth quantitatively over time?

oHousehold survey (LSMS survey, Country studies)

oNational Census

oSatellite?

▪ Spatially explicit data showing time series of urban changes are hardly available

Data calibration

▪ 6 different sensors were used from 1992-2013, the onboard sensors were not calibrated so the values need to calibrated to be comparable

▪ We calibrated by assuming little changes in nighttime lights in Sicily, Italy from 1992-2013 (Similar method is used by Elvidge2013 and Zhao 2015)

oForward adjustments: assuming positive growth annual

oBackward adjustments: compensating the abnormal high value in the previous year

oForward and backward average

▪ Gas flare mask (NOAA) and water mask (NASA) are applied

Maps of urban area in China and Kenya

1993

2012

MODIS

BING

Nightlight

Beijing,China LanZhou, China Nairobi,Kenya Eldoret, Kenya

Nightlights in China▪ The increase of

nightlights show strong heterogeneity across space

▪ The increase also show strong temporal variations

▪ The southeast provinces show early “turning point”

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

Nightlight by provinces

Ningxia Huizu Zizhiqu Xinjiang Uygur Zizhiqu Zhejiang Sheng

Guangdong Sheng Jiangsu Sheng Taiwan Sheng

Picture-Based Insurance (PBI): Detecting crop damage from smartphone camera data

Berber Kramer

Research Fellow

Markets, Trade and Institutions Division

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Opportunity: Rise of Smartphones

Source: Global Attitudes Spring 2015 & 2014, PEW Research Center

In 2015, there were 220 million unique smartphone users in India

Formative evaluation

1. Farmers download app and take an initial georeferenced

overview picture of their plot.

2. Every few days, they take a repeat overview picture of their

plot, from the exact same location with the same view frame

(facilitated by the app).

3. Agronomic experts inspect stream of pictures for visible

damage.

4. We are also ground truthing to automate this process.

Capturing repeat pictures…

Capturing repeat pictures…

HarvestPlus c/o IFPRI

1201 Eye St., NW • Washington, DC 20005-3915 USA

Tel: 202-862-5600 • Fax: 202-862-5606

HarvestPlus@cgiar.org • www.HarvestPlus.org

Targeting for impact: Developing tools for high impact-low cost biofortificationinterventions

HarvestPlus – Impact and Strategy Division

Study aim

To develop a global index for countries in Africa, Asia and LAC which prioritizes countries for:

➢ Vitamin A biofortification interventions

Crops: Cassava, Maize, Sweet Potato

➢ Iron biofortification interventions

Crops: Beans, Pearl Millet

➢ Zinc biofortification interventions

Crops: Rice, Wheat

Conditions for H+ priority country

1. Produce the crop

2. Consume much of the crop on a per capita basis

3. Have a high level of micronutrient deficiency

Production

Index

Consumption

Index

Micronutrient

Deficiency

Index

Biofortification

Prioritization

Index

BPI Interactive Tool

▪ Recently launched (January 2015)

▪ bit.ly/HPlusBPI

Sub-national BPI

▪ The aim is to close the geographic gap from a country to a subnational level - extending cross-sectional empirical evidence in consumption, production, and micronutrient deficiency.

▪ …enable us to inform decision on promotion and distribution of HarvestPlus – country programs and other national/international stakeholders.

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Subnational BPI

ReSAKSS Web-based Data and Knowledge Management Platforms

Mohamed Abd Salam EL VILALY, PhD

WCAO, International Food Policy Research Institute

ReSAKSS Country eAtlases ReSAKSS Website

CAADP Policy Tool

SAKSS interface

ReSAKSS ClimateViewer

Efficient systems that consider network issues and hardware limitation in most

African academic, research, and application institutions

Advanced Data Exploration Systems to

Enhance Country Data and Knowledge Management

ReSAKSS Country eAtlases, V#3

HarvestPlus c/o IFPRI

1201 Eye St., NW • Washington, DC 20005-3915 USA

Tel: 202-862-5600 • Fax: 202-862-5606

HarvestPlus@cgiar.org • www.HarvestPlus.org

Arab Spatial Development and Food Security monitoring Atlas

Tool Structure

A Mapping and charting online tool which maps processed and calculated tabular and spatial data from multiple sources.

Focus on agriculture and food and nutrition security related indicators and SDGs.

Mapping: Wheat yields, MENACharting: Access to improved water source, MENA

Objectives of Arab Spatial

▪ Improve access to quality information

o on food security and related development data

o interactive mapping experience and analytical tools

▪ Support decision and policy making

o for policy makers, analysts, researchers, media and the public

o through a mix of easily accessible information and analytical tools

International Food Policy Research Institute

The European Commission represents the interests of

the European Union by proposing new legislation to

the European Parliament and the Council of the

European Union and ensuring that EU law is correctly

applied by member countries.

Africa South of the Sahara

Food Security Portal

Current Data and Further Needs

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• Satellite and mobile applications are becoming more practical.

• Advances in data access include land records, soil mapping, and satellite-derived production estimates.

• The region is still restricted in terms of information availability and technology.

• For producers, price and market discovery continues to be difficult.

• For policymakers, identification of opportunities and constraints can be complicated.

Role of Food Security Portal

29

• Provide regional- and country-level information to POs and policy makers.

• Provide a panel control of several early warning tools for farmer groups to be alerted on price and production volatility and be able to prepare and become more resilient to shocks.

• Provide relevant research and lessons learned on food security.

• Enable virtual and actual dialogues through broad network.

• Through further coordination, can provide platform to help coordinate information sharing between POs and evaluate price transmission.

• Influence policy for more effective efforts to increase food security.

Policy network

Policy research networks

associated with AGRODEP in

Africa south of Sahara

Media analysis tools

Covering regional major crops

including maize

Soil profiles

Soil grid map application

collaborated with SoilGrids.org

Agricultural R & D indicators

on institutional, investment,

and capacity trends in

agricultural R&D.

Volatility & Early warning systems

volatility of local prices and of

relevant commodities

Themes and discussion

Thematic topics (food access,

food availability, input markets,

risk and resilience, food

consumption and nutrition)

Crop and Yield mapping

Crop calendar application

collaborated with GeoGlam

initiatives and yield mapping.

Main Features

Arab Food and Nutrition Security Blog An open-source platform that aims to provide evidence-based solutions for achieving a food-secure Arab World free of poverty

Inner Workings

▪Software for data processing

o Excel/Stata (tabular and spatial data)

o ArcGIS (spatial data)

o Tilemill (styling spatial data)

Raw data

Processing of tabular

and spatial data

Data entry

Visual results

Work

Flow

Navigation

Visual Results

← Time series visualization ability

▪ http://bit.ly/1RU6ZGw

Global food security index

Multi-layer mapping →

http://bit.ly/1YroWg9

Crop yields, dams, irrigated area and food security

Visual Results Cont’d: Projected changes in annual rainfall in MENA by 2050

Policy Applications

o Useful data hub for aiding evidence-based policy making

o Analysis and hypothesis testing tool

o Timeline allows for visualizing trends over time

o The ‘Policy Analyzer’ section tracks reported policies taken by governments overtime

oCan be used to visualize several model results and map them out against each other

oTracks country progress regarding SDG indicators

Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths

o Regional, national and subnational comparisons

o Draws from different data sources; adaptable to map different kinds of data

o Overlapping multiple layers for correlation analysis

o Open source for free dissemination of data

Weakness

o Limited available data – a general hindrance to the region’s development

o Some overlaying and charting limitations

Access to improved water source, governorates

pixelized area

(crop)

Sub-national area

(crop)irrigated_ land

crop_land

suitable_area (crop)

population density

other data: production

systems, ... (crop)

1. The SPAM process

SPAM

PRIOR

irrigated

PRIOR

subsistence

PRIOR

rainfed_high

PRIOR

rainfed_low

42 crops

simultaneously

2. SPAM2005 Crop List and ...1 wheat 14 dry beans 28 sugarcane

2 rice 15 chickpea 29 sugar beet

3 maize 16 cowpea

4 barley 17 pigeon pea 30 cotton

5 pearl millet 18 lentils 31 other fibres

6 finger/small millets 19 other pulses 32 arabica coffee

7 sorghum 33 robusta coffee

8 other cereals 20 soybeans 34 cocoa

21 groundnuts 35 tea

9 potato 22 coconuts 36 tobacco

10 sweet potato 23 oil palm 37 banana

11 yam 24 sunflower 38 plantains

12 cassava 25 rapeseed 39 tropical fruit

13 other roots & tub. 26 sesame seed 40 temperate fruit

27 other oil crops 41 vegetables

42 all the rest

…. continue

3. Statistical Area Coverage – subnational 1

…. continue

and ... Statistical Area Coverage – subnational 2

4. Sample results

Crop Distribution – Maize 2005

pixelized area

(crop)

Sub-national area

(crop)irrigated_ land

crop_land

suitable_area (crop)

population

distribution

other data: production

systems, ... (crop)

2010

2010

2010

GAEZ

V4

2010

5. SPAM 2010

refined methodology

STAY TUNED!