Adaptive Apps: Reimagining the Future - Forrester
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Transcript of Adaptive Apps: Reimagining the Future - Forrester
Adaptive Apps: Reimagining The Future
Mike Gualtieri, Principal AnalystForrester
Adaptive Apps: Reimagining The FutureMike Gualtieri, Principal AnalystSeptember 9, 2014
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 3
We have entered the age of the customer
#Royalty
Trend
Consumers want to be treated like royalty.
Royalty experiences have contextual
awareness and adapt to serve a single consumer.
Treat consumers like royalty to get their loyalty.
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 10
How well do you know this consumer?› Male
› 35 years old
› Single
› Resides in New York City
› Makes $100,000 per year
What do you predict he would do if the bank accidently transferred $5,000 into his bank account?
A. Give the money back
B. Take the money and run
Quiz
George Costanza
#BigData
Trend
Big Data means all your data++.
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 14
30%
7%12%
21%
30%
9% 8%14%
35% 34%
Business Decision Makers Technology Decision Makers
Base: 452 North American technology decision-makersRespondents answering “don’t know” are not shownSource: Global Data and Analytics Survey, 2014
Base: 249 North American business decision-makersRespondents answering “don’t know” are not shownSource: Global Data and Analytics Survey, 2014
Most technology decision makers get it; 30% of business decision makers are confused.
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 15
Big Data gushes from many sources…
• Data described by a schema
• Relational database, XML, delimited flat file, system events
Structured text
• Free-form text
• Email, documents, tweets, blog comments, Facebook status, genome
Unstructured text
• Audio, images, video
• Surveillance cameras, geological survey maps, Siri voice
Binary
eCommerce
MR
P
Web analytics
eCommerce
Web
Mo
bile
Finance
Customer Service
CR
M
Cla
ims
BPM
Excel & Access
Dat
a
war
eho
use
Plan
nin
g
Em
ail
Customer Service
ERP
Marketing
So
cial
Med
ia
PO
S
Field Operations
VOC
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 17
What percentage of enterprise data do firms use for analytics?
A. 12%
B. 34%
C. 53%
D. 76%
EnterpriseData
Quiz
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 18
What percentage of enterprise data do firms use for analytics?
A. 12%
B. 34%
C. 53%
D. 76%
EnterpriseData
Quiz
Source: Forrester Research
1100
1001
1011
001
0100
1001
1011
001
0100
1100
1101
101
0100
1001
1011
001
Historical
Transactions
Customer data
Ops
20
Gather all your data to breakdown silos and prepare it for deeper analysis.
Data
Now, analyze the heck out of it - every which way.
Process
Predictive analytics and streaming analytics have momentum.
Non Modeled Data Exploration And Discovery
Advanced Visualization
Metadata Generated Analytics
Search/Interactive Discovery
Process Analytics
Embedded Analytics
Web Analytics
Reporting
10%13%
16%18%
21%21%
24%29%
33%37%
49%50%
56%58%
81%
15%21%
20%20%
27%32%
19%33%
42%35%
50%54%
59%57%
77%
20142012
“What is your firm's/business unit's current use of the following technologies?”
Base: : Forrsights BI/Big Data Survey, Q3 2012: 634 Business Intelligence users and planners
Reporting is the only
‘widely’ used BI technology
Base: : Forrsights BI/Big Data Survey, Q2 2014: 452 Tech decision makers
Advanced analytics is
growing strongly
+30%
+62%
+52%
#Predictive
Trend
Predictive models can predict customer attributes and behavior.
DEFINITION
FORRESTERTechniques, tools, and technologies
that use data to find models – models that can anticipate outcomes with a significant probability of accuracy.
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 27
Predictive models can be very powerful and profitable, but understand that:
› Predictive models are about probabilities, not absolutes
› Predictive models may not exist for every question
But, when they work they give you an “unfair” advantage.
Predictive models can have a delightful, multiplicative effect on the bottom line
Direct Marketing – 1% response rate
Send marketing mail to 1,000,000 customers at cost of $2 per mailing to sell a $220 service.
$2 x 1,000,000 $2,000,000
1% response rate means 10,000 customer will buy service
$220 x 10,000 $2,200,000
Profit* $200,000
Predictive Direct Marketing – 3% response rate
Send marketing mail to 250,000 customers predicted most likely to buy at cost of $2 per mailing to sell a $220 service
$2 x 250,000 $500,000
3% response rate means 7,500 customer will buy service
$220 x 7,500 $1,650,000
Profit when using a predictive model* $1,150,000
Traditional
Predictive
* Profit calculation does not include other expenses
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 29
Predictive analytics is very different from the traditional analytics approach
Traditional Analytics Data Science
• Choose a business outcome to improve
• Discuss and decide what data will be relevant
• Develop a data model
• Design reports and dashboards
• Choose business outcome to improve
• Assemble all possible data
• Run algorithms to find relevant data & predictive model
• Use the predictive model
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 30
Big Data is the fuel of predictive analytics;
statistical and machine learning algorithms are
the engine.
How can you provide a perfect , individualized product recommendation?
Recommend
Turkey
How can you predict where customers will be on Thanksgiving.
Repeat
Should you make an offer she can’t refuse or send a gentle nudge?
Stop
What if you knew your customer was near your store on a sunny day?
How can Spotify use accelerometer data generated by customers while they listen?
Activity
How can you boost performance and retain your employees?
Performance
#Streaming
Data in motion is as valuable as data at rest.
Trend
Apps are blind – use APIs to make them see.
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 40
If you can measure it, then you can use it
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 41
Streaming analytics can uniquely enable three new tiers of app functionality
Source: April 22, 2014, “Use Sensors To Take Apps To The Next Level Of Customer Engagement” Forrester report
#Apps
Adaptive apps anticipates a customer’s intent and adapts to serve them.
Trend
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 44
Design principles for adaptive apps
› Learning who the customer really is
› Detect the customer’s intent in the moment
› Morph functionality and content to match intent
› Optimize for the device (or channel)
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 45
Trip1
Easy. Buy a copper tube ice maker kit.
Trip2
Buy a shut-off valve for the copper tubing.
Trip3
Buy a T-connector to tap the cold water supply line.
Trip4
Whoops. Also need to buy a hacksaw to cut the copper pipe.
Trip5
Finally. A special drill bit to make a hole in the kitchen floor for the copper tubing.
Adaptive apps can make your customers feel intensely loyal.
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 52
You must infuse your app architecture with predictive components...
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 53
…and expose them as APIs
Developer API API Team
Predictive Analytics
AppAdaptive App
Data Scientist
#Opportunity?
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 55
Perfect opportunity! Your competitors are busy with other priorities.
Source: “The State Of Retailing Online 2014” a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research
“What are your top three initiatives and priorities for your online (digital) business in 2014?”
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 56
Customers are ready.
#Imagination
What kinds of apps could you develop if could
predict and adapt to what customers need in the
moment?
Thank youMike Gualtieri