Adapting to Climate Change - … file• Decreasing rainfall .....22 • Increasing temperatures...
Transcript of Adapting to Climate Change - … file• Decreasing rainfall .....22 • Increasing temperatures...
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Table of contents
Purpose of this guide ............................................................................................................... 4
SECTION A: ThE CONTExT, prOCESS ANd TOOlS ................................................................. 5
A snapshot of climate change across Queensland ................................................................. 6
Climate change and core business for Local Government ..................................................... 8 •LocalGovernmentrolesandresponsibilities..................................................................... 8 •PlansandPlanning........................................................................................................... 9 •TheCorporatePlan........................................................................................................ 11 •RelevancetotheCorporatePlan’sStructure................................................................... 12 •Climatechangepolicy.................................................................................................... 13 •Corporateimplicationsforlegalliability.......................................................................... 13
Context and tools ................................................................................................................... 14 •Thebiggerpicture.......................................................................................................... 14 •Toolsforclimatechangeadaptation............................................................................... 15
SECTION B: ApplICATION TO ClIMATE ChANGE ElEMENTS ............................................... 17
Assessing risk and developing an action plan ...................................................................... 18 • Ahierarchyofriskassessment........................................................................................ 18 •Buildonexistingwork................................................................................................... 20
Climate change elements ...................................................................................................... 22 •Decreasingrainfall......................................................................................................... 22 •Increasingtemperatures................................................................................................. 26 •Sealevelrise.................................................................................................................. 30 •Storms........................................................................................................................... 34 •Cyclones........................................................................................................................ 38
Where to from here ............................................................................................................... 42 •BuildingCouncillorsupport........................................................................................... 42 •Startingtheprocess....................................................................................................... 43 • Guidingprinciples.......................................................................................................... 44
Workshop resources ............................................................................................................... 45
Resources ................................................................................................................................ 47
Appendix A Queensland climate projections and potential impacts ................................. 49
Appendix B Risk assessment criteria ..................................................................................... 53
Glossary ................................................................................................................................... 54
Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................... 55
Advisory Group Members ...................................................................................................... 55
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purpose of this guide
Queensland’sclimateischanginginwaysthatwillinfluencemanyoftherolesandresponsibilitiesofLocalGovernment.Someofthischangeisduetonaturalvariation,butincreasingly,humanactivitiesthatreleaseheat-trappinggasesintotheatmospherearewarmingtheearthbycontributingtothe“greenhouseeffect”.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(theglobalscientificbodyofexpertiseonclimatechange),theworld’saveragesurfacetemperatureisexpectedtoincreasebybetween1.1and6.4ºCovertheperiod1990-2100(IPCC2007).Thisprojectedrateofchangeiswithoutprecedentinthelast10,000years.Historicalratesofchangeandvariabilityarethereforenolongerareliableguidetofutureclimateconditions.
Why local Government decision-Makers Need To Consider Climate Change
Oneofthegreatestconcernsisanexpectedincreaseinclimatevariabilityandextremeweather,causingfloods,droughtsandstorms.Astheclimatechanges,evensmallshiftsinclimateaveragescouldhavelargeimplicationsforexistinginfrastructure.
ThiswillaffectsmallandlargeCouncils,bothurbanandrural,andwillhavepositiveandnegativeimplicationsforlanduseplanning,variousLocalGovernmentinfrastructure,communityservices,andnaturalassets.
LocalGovernmentsmakelong-livedinvestmentsininfrastructurethatarerequiredtolastformanydecades.Infrastructuredesignhasgenerallybeenbasedonpastclimateconditions.However,giventheclimatechangesexpectedoverthenextcentury,thesehistoricconditionsarenolongeraccurateindicatorsforplanning,maintenanceandupgrades.LocalGovernmentinfrastructureneedstoadapttonewclimateriskstoensureappropriateinfrastructureinvestmentdecisionsaremadetoreducelong-termcosts.
purpose of this Guide
AdaptingtoClimateChangeisaguidetohelpCouncilsthroughoutQueenslandassessthelikelyeffectsofclimatechangeontheirdiverserangeofrolesandresponsibilitiesandplanappropriateresponses.Ifadequatelyplannedfor,someoftheeffects–andcosts–ofclimatechangecanbeminimised.
TheGuide’sfocusisonadaptation,andnotonmitigationorreductionofgreenhousegasemissions.LocalGovernmentisalreadyextensivelyinvolvedinemissionmitigationprograms,particularlytheCitiesforClimateProtection(CCP).Todatehowever,therehasbeenlittlefocusonadaptationbyalllevelsofgovernment.ThisGuideprovidesanopportunityforLocalGovernmenttotakealeadingroleinrespondingtoclimatechange.
Climate-relatedrisksarenotnewtoLocalGovernmentmanagers.ManyoftheexistingrolesandresponsibilitiesofLocalGovernmentsareinfluencedbyclimateandweatherevents,andtheseareaddressedbythearrayofexistingplanningandmanagementsystemsemployedbyCouncils.Generallyspeaking,climatechangeisnotexpectedtocreatenewrisks,butitmaychangethefrequencyandintensityofexistingrisksandhazards.
AkeymessageintheGuideisthatclimatechangeeffectscaninmanycasesbedealtwithaspartofexistingCouncilplanningandoperationalprocesses.Managingclimatechangeeffectsdoesnotnecessarilyrequirenewandadditionalresources.
TheGuidedoesnotprovidestandardsolutionsforspecificsituations.Eachregionandcommunitywillhaveitsownclimate-relatedvulnerabilitiesandpriorities.Itdoes,however,provideaprocessandsomespecifictoolstohelpCouncilsidentifyandrespondtoclimatechangeimpactsincludingadecision-makingframework,casestudiesandpracticalchecklists.Thesearerelevanttoaplan,projectoractivity.
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SECTION A:ThE CONTExT, prOCESS ANd TOOlS Thecontext,processandtoolsforadaptingto climatechangeinLocalGovernment
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A snapshot of climate change across QueenslandQueenslandisgettinghotter,andisgettinglessrain,especiallyincoastalareassouthofCairns.Since1950annualaverageminimumandmaximumtemperatureshaveincreasedby1.38ºCand0.8ºCrespectively,andtherearemoreextremelyhotdaysabove35ºCandfewerextremelycoldnightsbelow5ºC.Coastalrainfallisnowoccurringinshorterandmoreintensebursts,andaveragecycloneintensityhasincreasedslightly(QueenslandDepartmentofNaturalResources&Mines2005).
Queensland’sclimateisexpectedtokeepchangingthroughoutthiscenturybecausetheatmospherealreadyhaselevatedlevelsofgreenhousegases.Someofthischangeisduetonaturalvariation,butincreasingly,humanactivitiesthatreleaseheat-trappinggases(especiallyCO2)intotheatmospherearewarmingtheearthbycontributingtothe“greenhouseeffect”.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(theglobalscientificbodyofexpertiseonclimatechange),theworld’saveragesurfacetemperatureisexpectedtoincreasebybetween1.1and6.4ºCovertheperiod1990-2100(IPCC2007).Thisprojectedrateofchangeiswithoutprecedentinthelast10,000years.
The trend in Queensland’s annual total rainfall 1950-2006 (change in mm per decade) shows that since 1950 rainfall has declined in many areas, and in some coastal areas by a total of 250mm.
The trend in Queensland’s maximum annual temperatures for 1950-2006 (ºC per decade) shows that maximum annual temperatures have risen by up to 0.3ºC per decade, or almost 1.5ºC over 50 years in some areas.
Trend in Annual Total Rainfall
1950-2006 (mm/10yrs)
50.040.030.020.015.010.0
5.00.0
-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-30.0-40.0-50.0
Trend in Maximum Temperature
1950-2006 (oC/10yrs)
0.800.600.500.400.300.200.101.00
-0.10-0.20-0.30-0.40-0.50-0.60-0.80
Source:BureauofMeteorologyhttp://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi©CommonwealthofAustralia2007,AustralianBureauofMeteorology
Estimatesoffutureclimate–usuallycalledclimateprojectionsorscenarios–areveryimportantinassistingplannersandmanagersidentifypossibleimpactsofclimatechangeontheirareasofresponsibility,andtoidentifyusefulresponsestrategies.
ClimatechangeprojectionsforQueenslandaredevelopedbytheQueenslandGovernmentandCSIRO,fromarangeofcomputer-basedmodelsofglobalclimateandfuturegreenhousegasemissionsscenarios.Becausetherearearangeofuncertaintiesaroundthese,therearevaryinglevelsofconfidenceregardingestimatesoffuturetrendsinkeyclimateparameters.
Furtherdetailregardingstate-wideclimateprojectionspreparedfortheQueenslandGovernmentbyCSIRO,isprovidedinAppendixA.
Thenature,rateandextentofclimatechangewilldifferacrosstheState.Combinedwithvariationsinpopulation,developmentandnaturalresources,therewillberegionaldifferencesinvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.
There is more confidence in temperature projections than for rainfall because of the direct relationship between greenhouse gas concentrations and temperatures.
Very high confidence
HighertemperaturesandchangesinextremetemperaturesSea-levelriseDecliningsoilmoisture
high confidence
DecreasingrainfallIncreasingpotentialevaporationIncreasingstorm-surgeheightsalongcoastIncreasingcycloneintensityIncreasingtemperaturesatregionalscale,includingextremes
Medium to high confidence
IncreasedriskofbushfireIncreasedincidenceofextremerainfall
Moderate confidence
AmountofrainfalldeclineandseasonalityofthatchangeChangesinaveragestreamflowIncreaseddrought
low confidence
Abruptorirreversiblechangesinkeyglobalissuessuchasmeltingofpolaricesheetsandchangesinoceancurrents
AdaptedfromQueenslandDepartmentofNaturalResources&Mines(2005)
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Qld
Climate change will vary across the state
• Western Queensland
Warmingisprojectedtobethestrongestinthisregion,particularlyinthesouth-westernpartofQueensland.Itisthoughtthatastrongdeclineinrainfallcouldaffectwaterquality,availability,andsoilmoisture.Theremaybemoreseveredroughtsandheatwaves,butwhenraindoesfallitcouldbemoreintense.Thesewillpotentiallyaffecttheregion’sproductivityandsocialcohesion.
Moreintenserainfallwillperiodicallycutoffprovisionsandservices,andhinderrestorationofdamagedinfrastructure.
Longreach
Numberofveryhotdays(>40ºC)
Present 17
2030 54
2070 155(QDNRM2005)
• Central Queensland
CentralcoastalQueenslandhasexperiencedthestrongestdryingtrendoverthepast50yearsanditisprojectedtocontinue.Itisthoughtthatastrongdeclineinrainfallandincreasedevaporationcouldaffectsoilmoistureandtheavailabilityandqualityofwater.AsignificantproportionoftheState’sagricultural,industrialandminingactivityislocatedincentralQueensland,theseactivitiesarehighlydependentonwaterresources.
Rockhampton
Numberofveryhotdays(>35ºC)
Present 20
2030 45
2070 146
(QDNRM2005)
• Far North Queensland
Thefarnorthcoastislikelytoexperienceanincreaseinrainfallintensityandtheregionmaygetmoresummerrain.Themajortowns,infrastructureandresortsintheseareasarelocatedinlow-lyingcoastalareasthatcouldbecomeincreasinglyvulnerabletohigherfloodorstormsurgelevels.
MorefrequentincidencesofextremeweatherandfloodingcouldmakeisolatedindigenouscommunitiesinthefarnorthandTorresStraitinaccessiblemoreoften.Thissituationcoulddisruptthesupplyofessentialservicesandthe
abilitytoreadilyrestoreinfrastructure.Changesinrainfallandhottertemperaturescouldalsoincreasetheriskofwater,foodandvector-bornediseases.Duetotheremotenessoftheseareas,sometechnologiesmaynotbeavailableforresponse.
Cairns
Numberofveryhotdays(>35ºC)
Present 4
2030 10
2070 93(QDNRM2005)
• Southeast Queensland
Likesomeoftheotherregions,SoutheastQueenslandhasexperiencedamarkeddryingtrendsincethe1950’s,aswellasanincreaseinintenserainfallevents.Thenumberofdaysover35ºCisexpectedtoincreaseinfuture,potentiallyaffectingpeakenergydemand.
Thedesign,locationanddeliveryofservicesandinfrastructuretosupportpopulationandeconomicgrowthwillneedtoconsiderclimateconditionsoverthenext70
to80years.Adaptationresponseswillneedtoconsiderenergyandwatersupplyanddemand,andhousingthatismoresuitedtochangedclimaticconditions.
Brisbane
Numberofveryhotdays(>35ºC)
Present 3
2030 6
2070 35
(QDNRM2005)
ClimatechangewillhavearangeofimpactsonQueenslandcommunitiesandLocalGovernments.
Evenapparentlymodestincreasesinaverageannualtemperaturecanhavesignificantimpacts.
Temperature Increase (ºC) potential Impacts
<1 4–12moredeathsperannumin65-yearagegroupinnortherntropicalcities
60%oftheGreatBarrierReefisregularlybleached
50%decreaseinmontanetropicalrainforestareainnorthernAustralia
1-� Populationatriskofdengueincreasesfrom0.17millionto0.75-1.6million
PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases4–10%
100yearstormsurgeheightaroundCairnsincreases22%;areafloodeddoubles
�-� Temperaturerelatedmortalityamongpeople65+yearsinAustraliancapitalcitiesincreasesby89–123%
97%oftheGreatBarrierReefisbleachedeveryyear
(adaptedfromPreston&Jones2006)
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Climate change and core business for local Governmentlocal Government roles and responsibilities
Climatechangeaffectsrainfall,temperatureandsealevelrise.Itwillinfluenceflooding,soilmoisture,stormandcycloneevents.Theseelementsofourclimateandweatherarefundamentaltoourcommunityandwayoflife.Ournaturalenvironment,lifestyles,healthandeconomicprosperityhavebeenshapedfromthesebasicforces.Changesinclimateandweatherwillcauseustoevaluateourcurrentactivitiesandpriorities,aswellasfutureplans.
Climate-relatedrisksarenotnewtoQueenslandLocalGovernmentplanners,resourcemanagers,andhazardandemergencymanagers.AnumberofCouncilplanningandmanagementsystemshaveevolvedtodealwithaspectsofCouncilbusinessthatmightbeinfluencedbyclimateorweatherrelatedevents.Theeffectsoffloods,droughts,stormsandotherextremeweathereventsarealreadyaddressedbyLocalGovernmentwhenplanningandprovidingservices.
LocalGovernmentisideallyplacedtobeattheforefrontofclimatechangeadaptationinlocalandregionalcommunities.Aschangesinclimaticandweatherpatternswillvaryregionally,thisvariationwillneedresponsesthataretailoredtothelocalorregionalcontext.LocalGovernmentcanrespondeffectivelytothisvariation-eitherindividuallyorthroughacooperativeregionalframework.
Climatechangewillprobablyalterthefrequencyandintensityofexistingweather-relatedrisksandhazards,aswellasproducingsomelong-termtrendsinparticularclimaticconditions,ratherthancausingentirelynewclimate-relatedrisks.Inmanycircumstances,existingCouncilplanningandmanagementframeworkswilllendthemselveswelltorespondingtoclimatechange.
AlloftherolesandresponsibilitiesofCouncils,includingtheassetstheyownandmanage,andtheservicestheyprovidetothelocalcommunitywillpotentiallybeaffectedbyclimatechange.AlloftheCouncilsfunctionsinthediagrambelowareaffectedbyclimatechange.ItisnotthedomainofanysinglesectionofaCounciltobeentirelyresponsibleforrespondingtoclimatechange.
Mayor and Elected Councillors
represent the community, due diligence, good governance, vision and goals, manage for healthy community & landscapes
Planning & Development
Infrastructure location
Land use planning for industry, residential,
commercial, open space
Urban and Rural Expansion
Corporate & Community Services
WH&S
Economic Development
Waste Management
Disaster Planning
Recreation
Tourism
Infrastructure
Water supply
Wastewater
Stormwater
Transport
Buildings
Coastal Infrastructure
Environment
Biodiversity
Catchments
Parks & Reserves
Wetlands, rivers
Coastal Management
Bushfire Management
Pests, weeds
CASE STUDY
Burdekin Shire – a coordinated approach
BurdekinShireCouncilhostsaNaturalResourceManagement(NRM)ClimateChangeProjectOfficeronbehalfofBurdekinDryTropicsNRM–theregionalNRMorganisation.TheroleofthepositionistoassistLocalGovernment,industryandthecommunitywithintheregionidentifyandadjusttotheimpactsofclimatechangeonnaturalresourcessuchaswateravailability.
InformationregardingclimatechangeanditsimpactonnaturalresourcemanagementpracticesandactivitieswithintheBurdekinShireisbeingcompiled.AseriesofstrategicplanningworkshopswillthenbeconductedwithBurdekinindustries,communitygroupsandLocalGovernmenttoimproveknowledgeandbuildcapacitytorespondtoclimatechangeimpactsonnaturalresources.
TherehasbeensignificantsuccesswithinthepastsixmonthsinengagingresearchbodiessuchastheAustralianInstituteofMarineScience,BureauofMeteorologyandCSIROtowardscontributingvitaltechnicalinformationandclimatedatafortheBurdekinShire.
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plans and planning
ClearlythemultipleplansCouncildevelops–atarangeofscalesandacrossallLocalGovernmentfunctions-presentsamajoropportunityforclimatechangeadaptation.Strategicandoperationalplanningisacrucialcapabilityasittypicallyrequiresresearchandtechnicalassessments,settingclearfutureobjectives,riskassessment,practicalactionsandcommunityengagement.
Itwillbeimportanttodistinguishtheroleofvariousplans,andwhereandhowtheycanbebestusedinadaptingtoclimatechangeimpacts.Akeyfactoristhenature,geographicscaleandtimingofvariousclimatechangeimpacts.Someelementssuchassealevelrisewilloccurgraduallyovermanyyears,andsointegrationintoaDisasterManagementPlanisnotappropriate.Thetopographyofthelocalareaisanimportantfactorinfluencingtheimpactofclimatechanges–particularlyforlowlyingcoastalareasandareassusceptibletoflooding.Changestothenaturalenvironmentsuchasspeciesandecosystemsmaybegradualastobealmostimperceptible.LocalGovernmentplanswillneedtoaccommodatethisgradual,incrementallongtermchange.
Otherclimatechangeelementssuchasstorms,cyclonesandheatwavesarehighlyvisible,sudden,andextremeeventsthatrequiredisasterplanning.SomeimpactswillhaveastronggeographicvariationacrosstheLocalGovernmentarea,whileothers,suchasheatwaves,willbefeltalmostequally.Somewillhaveimportantimplicationsforthelocationofvariouslanduses(egcyclones,stormsurge,flooding),whilstotherslessso(egincreasingtemperatures).UnderstandinghowthisvariationappliestoaparticularLocalGovernmentareamaybeusefulforplanningeffectiveadaptationmeasures.
Climate change elementSpecific areas /locations
vulnerable?
Nature of the impact
Sudden, extreme event
Gradual, long term change
Cyclones & storm surge Yes
Storms (& flooding) Yes
Increasing temps No
Heat waves No
Decreasing rainfall No
Sea level rise Yes
CASE STUDY
Sydney Coastal Councils: going regional
TheSydneyCoastalCouncilsGroup(SCCG)comprises15memberCouncilsbetweenPortHackingandtheHawkesburyRiver.TheSCCGhasdevelopedpartnershipswithkeyresearchagencies,includingCSIROandMacquarieUniversitytobuildtheknowledgebaseregardingfutureclimateprojectionsfortheregion.Thiswasidentifiedasakeyingredienttoenableassessmentofpotentialclimatechangeimpacts.Asetoflocallyrelevantclimateprojectionsaretobedeveloped.
Stakeholderworkshopsaretobeheldineachof15CouncilareastobringclimatechangeexpertstogetherwithLocalGovernmentstaffandelectedrepresentatives,andkeycommunitystakeholders.Keyobjectivesoftheworkshopsaretoprovideaforumtocommunicatethefutureclimatechangeprojections,andtousetheseasthebasistoidentifylocalvulnerabilitiesandthelikelyclimatechangeimpactsthatmayarise.WorkshopswillalsoexploretheoptionsandcapacityofLocalGovernmentstoadapttoclimatechange.
Theapproachoffersadvantagesintermsof(i)addressingissuesataregionalscalelikelytoberelevantformanyclimatechangeissues,(ii)engagingspecialistresearchagenciestodeveloplocallyrelevantclimateprojections,and(iii)providingtheopportunityforcomplexinteractionstobeidentifiedthroughconsultativeworkshops.
Furtherinformationavailableat:www.sydneycoastalCouncils.com.au/documents/ClimateChangeForum-SummaryReport.pdf
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ClimatechangehasimplicationsforabroadsuiteofplansdevelopedbyLocalGovernment.Theplanswillinfluencelocation,function,scaleanddesignofkeyinfrastructureandfacilities.
Someoftheseplansmayhavearegionalbasis(egtheEconomicDevelopmentPlan),suggestingcoordinationwithotherLocalGovernmentswillbeneeded.
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Increasing temperatures
Decreasing rainfall
Sea level rise
SuDDen, SHoRt teRM eventS
Cyclones
Storm surge
Heat wave
Storms, flooding
CASE STUDY
Gold Coast City – using the latest research
GoldCoastCitywillbeincorporatingthelatestresearchontheimpactsofclimatechangeonlocalbiodiversityintoitsnewNatureConservationStrategy.
TheBiodiversityattheHeights(BATH)project,aninternationalprojectbeingledbyGriffithUniversitywillstudyfaunaandinsectsinLamingtonNationalParkintheGoldCoasthinterlandtoidentifysignsofclimatechangeonbiodiversity.Theprojectwillstudyhowthebiodiversityofplants,insectsandfungichangeoverarangeofaltitudesinthesub-tropicalforest.ThetwoyearprojectwilluseforthefirsttimeinAustraliaacanopyglidertoenablescientiststostudytherainforestfromtheair.
GoldCoastCityintendsusingthefindingsfromthestudytoinformthedevelopmentofitsNatureConservationStrategysothatadaptationmeasurescanbeputinplacetoreducetheimpactsofclimatechangeontheCity’svulnerablespeciesandecosystems.
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WhatadaptationmeasuresareotherCouncilsimplementing?
A2006surveyof113LocalGovernmentsinNSWidentifiedthefollowingbroadrangeofadaptationmeasuresbeingundertaken.
ThE COrpOrATE plANTheCorporatePlanwillbeimportantasitsetsoutthefuturevisionandaimsforCouncil,andestablishesastrategicdirectiontoachievehealthycommunitiesandhealthylandscapes.ItsetsthedirectionfortheCouncilgenerallyforthemedium(atleast4years)term,supportedbytheFinancialPlananddeliveredthroughannualoperationalplans.
TheseplansaretheengineroomsdrivingCouncil’soperationstowardsachievingthecommunityvision.ItwillbeimportanttolinkplanningandactionforclimatechangeadaptationtoelementsofaCorporatePlanandthecycleofcorporateplanning.Climatechangeimpacts:
• Haveimplicationsforcommunityhealthandwellbeing
• Arelikelytohavelongtermeffectsonthenaturalenvironment
• Maywellaffecttheviabilityofactivitiesinthelocalarea,andsoaffectCouncil’seconomicbase,and
• AffectCouncil’sessentialinfrastructureandservices.
Corporate planning Cycle
TheCorporatePlan’splanningcyclehassixstages.Importantquestionsrelatedtoclimatechangeandhowitcouldaffectthefutureshouldbebuiltintoeachstage.
cities for climate change protection program14%
18%
climate change in SoE reports
conduct workshops6%
prepare planning instruments8%
seeking grants12%
measures to record changes5%
10%
development ofmanagement plans
commissioning reports5%
research5%
policy development11%
other6%
Stage 1: Will predicted climate change impacts affect Council’s long term vision and goals?
Stage 5: Are resources or funding available from State, Australian government?
Stage 6: The community expect to be informed on how climate change risks are being addressed by Council.
Stage 2: How should the key strategies to develop the vision reflect climate change impacts? Should major projects be reviewed in light of increased risk?
Stage 3: Community, industry, ROC’s, other governments should be consulted. What strategies require a regional approach?
Stage 4: Projects and activities may need to include adaptation measures to address the highest priority risks.
STAGE 1
STAGE 2Develop theCorporate
Plan
STAGE 3Consultation
and feedback
STAGE 6Annual
reportingand review
STAGE 5Implementthe plans
STAGE 4Develop the
Operational Plan
Reviewstrategicdirection
CORPORATE PLANNING
STRATEGIC PLANNING
COMMUNITYENGAGEMENT
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relevance to the Corporate plan’s Structure
Climatechangeimpacts,risksandadaptationmeasureshaveveryexplicitimplicationsfortheCorporatePlan.
Typical sections of a Corporate plan links to Climate Change
Asset Management Essentialinfrastructure(roads,bridges,waterreticulation,wastewatertreatment,buildings)maybethreatenedbysevereweatherevents(floods,drought,erosion,wind)
Designandlocationoffacilitiesandinfrastructurewillchangetoreflecthighriskclimatechangeimpacts
Longtermplanning,includinglocationforallinfrastructuremustfactorinclimatechange.egwastewatertreatmentplantsmayexperiencereductionsinvolumeofwastewatertreatedandincreasingnutrientconcentrationwithdecreasingrainfallandwaterconservationmeasures.
Growth Management Whicheconomicactivitiestoattracttothelocalareawithalikelylongtermproductivitygivenclimatechangescenarios?
Willclimatechangeimpactsaffectpopulationgrowth?Theareamaybecomemoreorlessdesirabletolive.Shouldprojectionsberevised?
Cantherevisedwatersupplyestimatesaccommodatepopulationgrowthprojections?
Community development and recreation
Healthandlifestyleimpactsmaybefar-reaching.Facilities,services,activitiesmayneedtobeplannedaroundchangedclimateandweatherpatternsorevents.
Thetype,designandlocationofcommunityandrecreationfacilitiesmayneedreview
Thelifestyleofmanycommunitiesisbasedaroundnaturalfeatures-rivers,lakes,wetlands,coasts,beaches,forests.Theimpactsofclimatechangeontheseareascouldchangelifestylesandcommunityvalue.
Environmental Management Significantplantandfaunaspeciesandwholeecosystemsmaydisappearfromthelocalareaovertime
Theconditionofwetlands,rivers,catchments,lakescoulddecline–thishasimplicationsforcatchmentandnaturalareamanagement
Distributionofvectorbornediseasesmaychange-implicationsforpublichealthprogramsandpestmanagement
Economic development Howwilltheeconomicbasebeaffectedbychangingclimate?Rainfallandtemperaturearelikelytobekeyfactors.
disaster Management Extremeeventslinkedtoclimatechangearelikelytoincreasedisasterriskforsomeareas.
Mayrequireregionalapproach,bettercoordinationwithState,AustralianGovernments
development of Art & Culture Willeventsbeaffectedbychangingclimateconditions(egheat,storms,reducedrainfall)
Aresomeevents/activities/facilitiesdependentonplentifulwater–theymaybeaffectedbydwindlingsupply
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Climate change policy
PolicydevelopmentisamechanismusedbyallLocalGovernments.PolicydevelopmentforclimatechangeadaptationisinanembryonicstageinQueenslandandAustralia.
Aclimatechangeadaptationpolicywouldbeausefulinstrumentasitwould:
• ClearlyestablishCouncil’sintentonclimatechangeadaptation
• ProvideaconsistentdirectionacrossCouncil
• BeameansforensuringclimatechangeriskandadaptationwereintegratedacrossallsectionsofCouncil,and
• Generateafocusonthefuture.
Thereisalsocasefordevelopingpolicyattheregionalorsub-regionallevelwherespecificrisksandadaptationapproachesrequireacoordinatedresponseatthislevel.ThiscouldbefacilitatedbytherelevantRegionofCouncils(ROC).
Asanyclimatechangeadaptationpolicywouldbynecessitybeover-archingacrossCouncilsections,functionsandactivities,acheckofotherCouncilpolicieswouldbeneededtoidentifyanyinconsistencies.
ThiswouldprovidefurtherimpetusforappropriatepolicydevelopmentattheStatelevel,andwhendeveloped,wouldbeausefulframeworkforensuringpolicyconsistencybetweenStateandLocalGovernments.
Thediagrambelowoutlinessomeelementsthatagoodclimatechangepolicywouldcontain.
policy element Climate change interpretation
Intent and outcomes clear Levelofrisk,natureofrisk,objectiveofpolicy,geographicareacovered
Links to high level strategy and objectives
ConsistentwithcommunityexpectationsandCorporatePlan
Outlinehowthepolicysupportssustainabledevelopment
Across Council application Achieveconsistencyacrossallsections
ProcessidentifiedtocoordinatewithinCouncil
How implemented Guidelinesonwhenandhowtoapplythepolicyindecisions,plans,projects(toall,orwhichones)?
Identifywhohasleadership,responsibilities
Monitoring and review Reviewedwhenmoreaccurateinformationisavailable
Corporate implications for legal liability
GriffithUniversityhasrecently(March2007)releasedanIssuesPaperexaminingLocalGovernmentlegalresponsibilitiestodealwithclimatechangeconsiderationswhenexercisingtheirfunctionsandpowers.
ThepaperindicatesthatLocalGovernmentsareatriskofincurringlegalliabilityiftheyunreasonablyfailtotakeintoaccountthelikelyeffectsofclimatechange.Thepaperfoundthatthecurrentthresholdofunreasonablenessishigh,andthatLocalGovernmentscurrentlyhaveavailabletothemanumberofdefencesthatseemlikelytoprotectthemfromclaimsbasedonafailuretorecogniseandrespondtoinformationaboutclimatechange.
However,thepapernotedthatthelawinthisareaisevolvingrapidlyandthatLocalGovernmentsshouldtakecaretoensuretheiractionsanddecisionsregardingmattersthatmaybeaffectedbyclimatechangeremaincurrentandreasonableintherapidlyevolvingpolicyandclimatesciencecontext.
Toprotectthemselvesagainstclimatechangelitigationrisks,thepaperrecommendedthatwhenmakingpoliciesanddecisionspotentiallysubjecttoclimatechangeimplications,LocalGovernmentsmaywishtotakeaccountofrelevantdocuments,policies,guidelinesandadvicesuchas:
• StatePlanningPolicies–inparticulartheStateCoastalManagementPlan,andStatePlanningPolicy1/03onMitigatingtheAdverseImpactsofFlood,BushFireandLandslide
• Referralagenciesadvice
• AustralianandStateGovernmentclimatechangestrategies
www.griffith.edu.au/centre/urp/urp_publications/Issues_Papers/URP_IP6_ENGLAND_Climate_LocGovt_final.pdf
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Context and tools
The bigger picture
LocalGovernmentis‘atthecoalface’oflandusechange,developmentandthecommunity.Itisthelevelofgovernmentclosesttothecommunity,andinvolvedinprovidingessentialdailyservices.ManyofthefunctionsthatwillbeaffectedbyclimatechangehoweverareeitheroutsideLocalGovernment’ssphereofinfluence,orareheavilyreliantuponresources,legislationorfundingfromotherlevelsofgovernment.
Animportantmessageinclimatechangeadaptationiscoordinatingeffortandresourceswithotherorganisationsandlevelsofgovernment.Theissueistoofar-reaching–bothgeographicallyandintermsofitsimpacts–tobeattemptedbyoneorganisationonitsown.
Regional
Queensland
Australia
Council
Economic Development
Rural Development
Environment
Law & Order
Transport
Community Health
Education
Recreation & Sport
Energy & power
Coastal management
Land use & development
Waste
Wastewater
Stormwater
FUNCTION
Mai
n l
evel
of
resp
on
sib
ilit
y
Climate Change Impacts
Climate Change impacts
15
Tools for climate change adaptation
Whilstmostofthedriverscausingclimatechangeareinternationalorglobalinnature,manyactionstorespondandadapttotheeffectsofclimatechangeoncommunitiesaregroundedinLocalGovernment.LocalGovernmenthasawidearrayoftoolsandapproachesitcurrentlyusesforcorebusinessthatcanbeappliedoreasilyadaptedtoaddressclimatechangeimpacts.Thetoolboxillustratedbelowpresentsthemostusefulofthese.Notallwillberelevantorcosteffective.Thepointisthataddressingclimatechangeatthelocalleveldoesnotrequireinvestmentinmajornewcapabilities;thecapacityandtoolsarealreadyinplace.
rEGulATE
regulations, laws
policies, codes
development control
Guidelines
INFOrM
research
Education forums, seminars
Website
Information brochures, interactive
local media – TV, newspapers, radio
dESIGN ANd OpErATE
Transport infrastructure
Water supply
Waste facilities
Buildings, venues
plAN
Corporate
planning scheme
disaster management
Catchment
recreation
parks, natural areas
Infrastructure
pest management
Economic development
risk assessment
FINANCE
Investment
Budgets
procurement
Subsidies, grants, rebates, levies
AdVOCATE
lobby with rOC’s
Queensland, Australian Governments
peak industry bodies
ENGAGE ANd FACIlITATE
partnerships
Community groups
Environment groups
universities
Inter-government liaison
Industry bodies
Climate change adaptation is likely to draw
upon a number of these tools and
capabilities
17
SECTION B: ApplICATION TO ClIMATE ChANGE ElEMENTS TherestoftheGuideappliesthefourstep riskassessmentprocesstofiveelementsof climatechange:
decreasing rainfall
Increasing temperatures
Sea level rise
Storms
Cyclones
1�
ThissectionoutlinesasimpleandlogicalprocessforassessingclimatechangeriskstoLocalGovernments’assetsandactivities,anddevelopinganactionplanforaddressingthem.Becauseclimatechangehaswide-rangingimpacts,andLocalGovernmentshavemultiplefunctions,itisusefultohaveastructuredprocessforworkingthroughtherisksandappropriateresponses.
Theprocessconsistsoffourstepswhicharedescribedinthissection.
1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkS
2 prIOrITISING ThE rISk
3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrES
4 ThE ACTion plAn
Climatechangewillaffectthewayweworkandlive.SuchfundamentalchangeswillneedLocalGovernmentstorespondwithwide-rangingthinking,andtoavoidnarrow,inflexibleideasofthefuture.Thesquarewehaveoperatedinforsolonghassuddenlychangedshape–sowewillneedtothinkoutsideit.
Theprocessremainsthesamewhetheritisastrategy,planorprojectactivitythatisbeingassessed.Theonlydifferencemaybethestakeholdersinvolved,thegeographicareacovered,andthelevelofdetailrequired.
TheremainderoftheGuideappliesthesefourstepstofiveclimatechangeimpacts:
A hierarchy of risk assessment
Allriskassessmentisbasedaroundassessingboth:
• thelikelihoodoftheriskoccurring,and
• theconsequences.
Ariskassessmentcanbedesignedatvaryinglevelsofcomplexity,dependingontheprecisionanddetailneededforassessingrisksandthecostsofvariousactions.Thereisahierarchyofthecomplexityofriskassessment,whichissummarisedbelow.
Assessing risk and developing an action plan
•decreasing rainfall
• Increasing temperature
• Sea level rise
• Storms
• Cyclones
1�
Mostriskassessmentisaformofqualitativeassessment.Inmostcases,thiswillprovideaveryusefulbasisforariskassessment.SomeCouncilsmaythendecidetoproceedtoamoredetailedquantitativelevelwhichrequiresadditionalinformationandexpertiseif:
•Therisksarepotentiallysevereorextreme,butmoreinformationisneeded,or
•Adaptationcostsareveryhigh,andCouncilneedsgreaterconfidenceinthebasisofthesedecisionsbeforecommittingfunds.
RangeofpossibleapproachestounderstandingLocalGovernmentclimatechangerisks
Impact Assessment Approach
Inputs Required Process Application
DetailedQuantitiveRiskAssessment
Detailedclimatechangemodelling
Detailedbiophysicalorotherprocessmodelling
Detailedeconomicassessments
Technicalprocessofcouplingclimateprojectionswithotherprocessmodelstoqualifyestimatedclimateimpacts
Situationswherethereisgoodscientificunderstandingofhowsystemsbehave
Situationswherecostsofclimatechangeimpactsand/orresponsearehigh
QualitativeRiskAssessment
Projectionsforkeyclimateparameters
Assessmentofconsequencesandlikelihoodofriskoccurring
Riskassessmentprocesstoenableprioritisationofclimatechangerisks
Consultativeprocesswithkeystakeholders
Wherespecificclimatechangerisksneedtobeidentifiedandprioritised
Wherescientificallypreciseextentofimpactdoesn’tneedtobeknown
InitialRisk‘Screening’
Qualititiveclimatechangeinformation(eggettingwarmer)
Highlevelassessmentofsystemspotentiallyexposedtoeffectsofclimatechange
Mayinvolveexpertjudgement
Whereaquickassessmentofpotentialclimatechangeimpactsisrequired
lEVEl O
F dETA
Il
COST
CASE STUDY
Applying risk assessment
TheWesternPortGreenhouseAlliance(WPGA)wasestablishedtoprovidearegionalframeworkforlocalstakeholderstoprepareforandadapttoclimatechangeintheWesternPortregion.Itsmembershipcomprisesthe5LocalGovernmentssurroundingWesternPort.
Fromaninitiallistofabout100climatechangeissuesthathadbeenidentifiedacrossallsectors,keystakeholdersparticipatedinaseriesofworkshopstoprioritiseclimatechangerisksmostinneedoftreatment.Theprocessusedtodeterminepriorityissueswasasimpleformofqualitativeriskassessment.
Stakeholderswereaskedtorate(usinga5pointscale)boththeclimatesensitivityofeachissue(thedegreetowhichasystemisaffectedbychangingclimateelements)andthecapacityofthesystemassociatedwitheachissuetoadapttoclimatechange(takingaccountofissuessuchasflexibilitytorespond,andaccesstoinformationandresources).Theseassessmentswereusedtogenerateanoverallassessmentofthevulnerabilityofeachissuetoclimatechange,andwasusedasthebasistoprioritiserisksneedingattention.
Furtherinformationavailableathttp://www.casey.vic.gov.au/wpga/
�0
Build on existing work
ManyLocalGovernmentshaveexistingriskassessmentframeworksthatcouldeasilybeadaptedfortheclimatechangecontext.Generally,itisnotnecessarytodevelopnewriskmanagementframeworkstodealwithclimatechange.Thebenefitsofusingexistingframeworksarethatclimatechangerisksareassessedconsistentlywithotherrisks,andtreatedinbalancewithotherprioritiesfacedbyLocalGovernments.
Beforestartingtheriskassessment,reviewtheworkalreadydonefortheDisasterManagementPlan.Thelocalcontextformanyoftherisks,andthetoleranceofthecommunitytovarioushazardsshouldalreadyhavebeenidentified.Thetasknowisusethisinformationasastartingpointforarevisedriskassessmentduetoclimatechange.
1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkS
Animportantinitialtaskistoestablishthecontextoftheassessment:
• determine the scope.DoestheassessmentincludeallofCouncil’sactivities,orisitrestrictedtoindividualsections?
• Establish the process. Whoshouldbeinvolved?Allstakeholderinterestsneedtoparticipateinaworkshopprocess.Youmayneedtoincludeexternalexpertise.
• Establish the risk criteria. Definethecriteriaagainstwhichconsiderationsofrisklikelihoodandconsequencewillbeassessed.ConsequencecriteriashouldrelatetothegoalsorobjectivesofeitherthewholeCouncilorindividualsections.TablesofpossiblecriteriaarecontainedinAppendixB.
2 prIOrITISING ThE rISk
Foreachrisk:
•Considermeasuresalreadyinplacethatmayreducetherisk
•IdentifythedegreetowhichCouncil’sfunctions,assetsandactivitieswillbeaffectedbytheclimatechangerisk
•Assesstheconsequencesandlikelihoodagainstthesuggestedcriteria(refertableAppendixB)
•Assignanoveralllevelofrisk
Atabletoguideoverallriskrating(likelihoodandconsequence)isshownbelow.
likelihood
Consequences
Minimal Low Moderate Major Catastrophic
Almost Certain Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme
likely Low Medium High High Extreme
possible Low Medium Medium High High
unlikely Low Low Medium Medium Medium
rare Low Low Low Low Medium
�1
INCrEASINGTIME, COST,
EFFOrT
4 ThE ACTion plAn
Theriskassessmentandselectionofsuitableadaptationmeasuresneedtobedevelopedintoapracticalactionplan.Thisrequiresconsideringthreetasks:
Internal integration:identifythelinksandintegrationwithinCouncil,acrossallsections.
External partners and coordination:avoidgoingitalone.IdentifyissuesandmeasureswhichareoutsideCouncil’sinfluenceorresponsibility,orextendacrossawidegeographicareathatextendsbeyondCouncil’sboundary.Suchexamplesindicatearegional,stateornationalapproachwillberequired,andacoordinatedeffortimportantforeffectiveaction.
Fine tuning: applyingadditionalfactorswhererelevanttodevelopaplantailoredtoCouncil’spriorities.
3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrES
Adaptationmeasuresvarywidelyinthecost,timeandefforttodevelopandimplement.Generallylowriskswouldrequiremeasuresthatareeasierandlesscostlytoimplement.Consideringahierarchyofmeasuresreflectingtime,costandeffortmaybeusefulinidentifyingthemostappropriateresponses.
Therangeofadaptationmeasuresisextensive.Ausefulframeworkgroupspossiblemeasuresintocategoriestoactasachecklistortriggerforadditionalrelevantmeasures:
Informed and aware Whatthecommunityorparticulargroupsneedtoknow
Clarifyingtheobjective:informationorbehaviourchange
Making plans Reviewingandupdatingcurrentplans(regulatoryandother),andreviewingplansofadjoiningCouncils
Improving design Review,adaptingdesignrequirementsandguidelinestoreducerisk
diversifying, spreading the risk
Encouragingindustriesvulnerabletoclimatechangerisktobecomemoreflexibleandadaptable
location, location, location
Whentoconsiderrelocatingactivities,oravoidnewdevelopmentinhighlyvulnerablesites?
��
decreasing rainfall 1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkS Projectionsregardingfuturerainfallremainrelativelyuncertain,comparedwithanumberoftheotherclimateelements.Thisismainlybecauseoftheshortertermcyclesthatinfluencerainfallaswellasthelongertermclimatechangetrends.However,annualrainfallhasdroppedalongQueensland’scoastbyupto250mmsince1950andcoulddeclinebyanother15%by2030andupto40%by2070(QDNRM2005).Theremaybemoredroughtsasaresult.Therewillberegionalandseasonaldifferencesinrainfallchange,withmostmodelsagreeingthatwinterandspringrainfallinparticularwilldecreaseacrossmuchoftheState.SmallareasofQueenslandmayexperienceanincreaseinrainfall(refermappage6),whichcouldcauseincreasederosionandflooding.
ThefundamentalimportanceofrainfalltopotablewatersuppliesandagriculturalproductionmakethisaparticularlysignificantissueforLocalGovernmentswithsmallorrelativelydrywatercatchments,andforcommunitieslargelydependentonagriculturalenterprisesvulnerabletoreducedrainfall.
possible impacts across core local Government functions
Public safety Decreasedrainfallmaycontributetoincreasedbushfirehazardinspecificareas,posingriskstosafetyofadjacentcommunities
economic development Watersupplyshortagescouldseriouslyreduceorconstraineconomicdevelopmentpotential
DecreasedindustrialandagriculturalproductivityinsomeregionscouldthreatentheeconomicbaseofLocalGovernments
Community & lifestyle Reducedwateravailabilitymayimpactonrecreationopportunitieseglocalswimmingpools,andwateravailableforgardening
Inagriculture-basedcommunities,sustainabilityoflocalservicesmaybereducedintheeventthatagriculturalproductionisseriouslyimpacted
environment Speciesandecosystemsvulnerabletodryconditionsmayalterdistributionorbecomelocallyextinct.Rainforestandwetlandsystemsareparticularlyvulnerable
Financial, legal liabilities Ratebaseaffectedforsomeyearsifeconomicactivitiesarebadlydisrupted
essential infrastructure Watersupplyinfrastructureegreservoirsmaynolongerbesufficienttomeetdemand.Alternativeformsofwatersupplyinfrastructuremayneedinstallingegrecyclinginitiatives,desalination
Damagetobuildingscausedbyshiftingfoundationsduetosubsidence,andincreasedextremesbetweenwetanddryconditions
Reduceddryweatherflowsinwastewaterandstormwaternetworksincreasingriskofblockagesanddryweatheroverflows
Theimpactsabovearenotexhaustive,butindicatearangethatwillaffectallareasofCouncil.ItisforthisreasontheriskassessmentshouldbeundertakenacrossallCouncilactivitiesandinvolvingstakeholdersfromallsections.Thisisfurtherillustratedbytheexamplebelow,whichtrackseffectsandpossibleresponsesacrossvarioussectionsofCouncilforoneimpactfromdecreasedrainfall:reducedorlessreliablewateravailability.
links across Council for reduced water availability impacts and responses
Impact planning & development Infrastructure Community services Environment
Reducedorlessreliablewateravailabilityfromlocalwatersupplies
Futuredevelopmentpotentialimpacteddueto
reducedwatersupplies
Shiftingfoundationscausingdamagetobuildings&other
infrastructure
Recreationalparks&gardensdegradedduetoreducedwateravailability
Reducedflowsdownstreamfromwatersupplyreservoirsdegrade
aquaticecosystems
possible response
Alternativewatersuppliesidentifiedandplannedfor
egrecyclinginitiatives
Buildingstandards&guidelinesupdatedto
reducedamage
Alternativewatersuppliesandwateringstrategies
developed
Reduceotherstressestolocalaquaticsystems;assessminimumflow
requirements
��
2 prIOrITISING ThE rISkRiskisassessedbybothlikelihoodandconsequence,accordingtotheriskassessmentprocessacrossthewholeofCouncilactivities.Thisisacriticalstep,asthelevelofriskwillinfluencewhatadaptationmeasuresareappropriate,andtheirpriority.Belowisasampleofariskassessmentfordecreasingrainfall.
review point:doyouhaveadequateinformationondecreasedrainfallriskstohaveconfidenceinyourassessment?Ifnot,consideracquiringadditional:
• externalexpertise,
• information,whichmayincludeupdatedmodellingforyourarea,ortranslatingscientificinformationatabroadscaletoascaleappropriatetoLocalGovernmentdecisions.
likelihood
Consequences
Minimal Low Moderate Major Catastrophic
Almost certain Nopublicwash-offshowersalongbeaches
Increasingdryweatherflowsfromstormwaterandwastewaternetworks
Morefrequentandintensebushfiresinsomeareas
Recreationeventsreliantongoodwaterlevelsinrivers,lakescancelled
Morefrequentand/orseveredroughtsreduceagriculturalproductivityincertainareas
likely Permanentwaterrestrictionsinplaceforresidents
Increasedmaintenancerequiredonsomepublicbuildingsduetoshiftingfoundations
Recreationalparks&gardensaffectedbyreducedwateravailability
Localrainfallreliantwatersourcesperiodicallynotabletomeetdemand
Lackofwateraffectsoperationsandviabilityofindustry,agriculture
possible Certainspecies/ecosystemsbecomelocallyextinctduetoincreasingdryness
Lowwaterlevelsaffectsenergysupplies
unlikely Watersupplydepleted.Watertruckedinfromotherareas
rare
CASE STUDY
Rainwater tanks, building design and plumbing
DecreasingrainfallhascausedmanyCouncilstoexaminealternativewatersupplyoptions,includingrainwatertanks.SomeCouncilshavemadethesecompulsoryonnewdevelopments(egGoldCoastCity).
Arecentstudythatexaminedtheefficiencyandcostofrainwatertankscomparedtootherwatersupplyoptions(desalination,newdams)foundthatthedesignofthebuildingandplumbingaffectedtheefficiencyofarainwatertankasanalternativewatersource,particularlyforretrofittingintoexistinghousing.Factorstobeconsideredinclude:
• Higherdensityhousingisgenerallyunsuitableforrainwatertanks
• Houseswithlargeroofcollectionareasaremuchmoreeffectiveforrainwatertankuse
• Costoftankinstallationdependsonspecifichouseholdfeaturesincludingplumbing.
Theaboveindicateslinkstohousingdesignmaybeneededtoobtainmaximumbenefitfromrainwatertankinstallation.
www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_rainwater_tanks.pdf
��
3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrESResponsesandadaptationstotheriskfromdecreasedrainfallcoverabroadspectrumofpossiblemeasures.Althoughthelistofpossiblemeasuresisextensive,thestructureandkeyissuesbelowshouldbothfocusdiscussionandtriggeradditional,suitablemeasures.
Informed and aware Havethebestpossibleprojectionsoffuturelikelyrainfallpatternsbeenobtained?
Provideinformationtoachievemaximumwaterefficiencies
Informationandeducationwillsubstantiallyreducewaterconsumptionandimprovewaterconservation
Targetedinformationpackageswillbeneededforhouseholds,businessandindustry
Involvingthecommunityinwatersupplyscenarios,optionsandplanningwillbecrucialtobroadacceptance
Making plans Haswatersupplyplanningtakenaccountprojectedreductionsinrainfall?Whatdoestheworstcasescenarioforrainfallindicate?
Useprojectedsustainablewatersuppliesinsettinglocaldevelopmentpotential
Doescurrentlanduseplanningfactorintheprovisionforofalternativewatersupplynetworksegrecycledwater
HaveRegionalEconomicDevelopmentPlanstakenaccountofstressestolocaleconomicbasethatcouldariseduetoclimatechange?Haveinitiativesbeenidentifiedthatcouldbuildresilienceofthelocaleconomytoclimatechange–ortakeadvantageofpossibleopportunities?
Naturalenvironmentplanning–improvetheresilienceofvulnerableecosystemssotheycanadapttoadrierclimate(considerrehabilitation,protection,restoration).
Revisemaintenanceschedulesorsystemstoreducerisksofinfrastructuremalfunctions
Improving design Reducewaterconsumptionbyimproveddesignofparks&gardensfacilities
Reviewbuildingandotherrelevantcodesintermsofstandardsapplyingtobuildingfoundations
Assessthefeasibilityofretrofittingexistingstructurestoincreasetheirsafetyorreliability
Designwatertreatmentplants,watersupplyandotherinfrastructuretoadapttofuturepredicteddecreasesinvolume,increasesinnutrientandchemicalconcentrations
Improveconditionofparksandgardensbyusingdroughttolerantplantspecies,changedmowing,mulchingpractices
diversifying, spreading the risk
Examinealternativesourcesofwatersupplytodiversifysourcesandreducerelianceonrainfalldependentsupplies
Canthelocaleconomicbasebebroadenedtobelessreliantonrainfall-dependenteconomicsectorssuchasagriculture?
Promotealternativeactivitiestoreducewaterusageegrelatedtorecreationand/orgardening
Investigatealternativeformsofindustryandagriculturethatmaybemoresuitabletoadryingclimate
location, location, location
Areasmostvulnerabletodryingintermsofagricultureornaturalsystemsmayneedspecificallytargetedinitiatives
Canfuturedevelopmentbelocatedwherealternativewatersuppliesarefeasible?egindustrylocatedclosetowastewatertreatmentplants
Australia
Queensland
Regional
Council
Stateplanningpolicy/legislation
Advicerelikelyimpacts&bestmanagement
Regionallycoordinatedinitiativestobuildresilience&reducevulnerabilities
Planningschemeinitiativestoprotectvulnerablesystems&enableadaptation
AdApTATION MEASurE: Manage vulnerable ecosystems
�5
4 ThE ACTion plAnTheriskassessmentandselectionofsuitableadaptationmeasuresneedstobedevelopedintoapracticalactionplan.Thisrequiresconsideringthreesteps:
Internal integration: acknowledging the links• Identifyinglinksand
integrationrequiredwithinCouncil,acrossthevariousCouncilsections
Climatechangerisk:reducedwateravailability
Adaptation Measure
Actions external partners Role Lead in Council
Reviewwatersupplyplanning
Updatewatersupplyprojectionstofactorinclimatechange
CSIRO/research
DNRW
Industry,UDIA
Primaryindustry
Rainfallmodelling&predictions
Queenslandwatersupplyprojections
Futureuseandwaterqualityrequirements
Futureuseandwaterqualityrequirements
Infrastructure
Identifyandconductafeasibilitystudyontherangeofpossiblesupplyalternatives
QueenslandWaterCommission
RelevantWaterAuthority
Community
Industry,UDIA
Primaryindustry
Tourism
Acceptabilityofvariouswatersupply,waterconservation,anddemandoptions
Implicationsforeconomicdevelopment,community,environment,urbanareas,agriculturalactivity,tourism
Infrastructure
Involvethecommunityonwatersupplyoptionsplanning
Community(allsectors)
Waterauthorities
Evaluationofoptionsandsupportforpreferredoption
CommunityServices
Fine tuning• Theriskassessmentandselecting
adaptationmeasuressetsthebasicprioritiesforaction.However,thesefactorsmayalsoberelevantinfine-tuninganactionplan:
–communityexpectationsand priorities
–timingforsupport,resources fromotherorganisations, governments
–stageinCouncil’splanningand fundingcycles
–ease/impactofmeasures(what iseasytoimplement,andwill haveasubstantialimpact?)
–whatarewedoingalready? Whatisanewinitiative,and whatbuildsonpreviousactivities?
External partners and coordination: avoid going it alone• IdentifyingissuesandmeasureswhichareoutsideCouncil’s
influence,responsibilityorextendacrossawidergeographicarea.Wherearegionalapproachisessentialforcost-effectiveorcoordinatedaction,orwhereStateandAustralianGovernmentshavesignificantroles,resourcesorresponsibilities.
Australia
Queensland
Regional
Council
Stateplanningpolicy/legislation
Advicerelikelyimpacts&bestmanagement
Regionallycoordinatedinitiativestobuildresilience&reducevulnerabilities
Planningschemeinitiativestoprotectvulnerablesystems&enableadaptation
AdApTATION MEASurE: Manage vulnerable ecosystems
plan + development
Linkstoplanningscheme-facilitate
newoppportunitiesavoidimpediments
Corporate +Community Services
Linkstomanagement
ofcouncilfacilities
InfrastructureImplicationsfor
newand/orexistinginfrastructure
EnvironmentPossible
environmentalimpacts?
Environmentalwaterrequirements
AdApTATION MEASurE: diversify water supply sources
��
Increasing temperatures1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkS Queenslandisgettinghotter.Averageannualtemperaturescouldincreasebyupto2ºCby2030,andupto6ºCby2070.Thelatestprojectionsindicateacontinuingriseintemperatures,withwarmernightsandfewerfrosts.Anincreaseinthefrequency,severityanddurationofextremeevents,suchasheatwavesisalsolikely.Otherimportanteffectsfromrisingtemperaturesareincreasedbushfirerisk,andadecreaseinsoilmoistureresultingfromhigherevaporationrates.Hotterandwindierconditionscouldreducesoilmoisturebyasmuchas18%.
Theabovesnapshotindicatessignificantimpactsforagriculture,thenaturalenvironment,communitylifestyleandhumanhealthandsafety.
possible impacts across core local Government functions
Public safety Heatwavesputvulnerablesectionsofthecommunityatriskfromdehydrationandheatstress,especiallytheelderly
Areasofalreadyhighbushfireriskmayresultinsignificantpublicsafetyissues
economic development Decreasingsoilmoisturewillaffectallagriculturalandpastoralactivities
Increasedneedforairconditioningwillputstressonpowersuppliesinmanyareasintheshortterm
Community & lifestyle Outsidesportingeventsmayneedtoberescheduledinexcessivelyhotconditions
Changedworkinghoursandheatprotectiveclothingrequestedbyemployeestosuithotterconditions
environment Vegetationandwildlifecouldbeseverelydamagedbyintensefiresacrosslargeareas
Intensebushfiresinwatercatchmentareascouldcausemajorwaterqualityproblemsforwatersupply,riversystemsandsurfacewaterbodies
Financial, legal liabilities Identifyingareasofhighbushfireriskwillbeimportanttoinformplanninganddevelopmentintheseareas
essential infrastructure Shadewillbecomemoreimportantinalloutsidevenues–especiallyplaygrounds
Putresciblewastewillrotmorerapidly,andmayneedmorefrequentservices
Theimpactsabovearenotexhaustive,butindicatearangethatwillaffectallareasofCouncil.ItisforthisreasontheriskassessmentshouldbeundertakenacrossallCouncilactivitiesandinvolvingstakeholdersfromallsections.Thisisfurtherillustratedbytheexamplebelow,whichtrackseffectsandpossibleresponsesacrossvarioussectionsofCouncilforoneimpactfromincreasingtemperatures.
links across Council for heat wave impacts and responses
Impact planning & development Infrastructure Community services Environment
Increaseinfrequencyandintensityofheatwaves
Highercostsinenergyconsumptionforbuildings
Council’soutdoorvenues(egplaygrounds)require
increasedshade
Elderlyexperienceheatstressanddehydration
Conditionofparksandbushlandreservesdeclines
possible response
Climatesensitivedesignforpublicbuildings
Designguidelinesupdatedtoprovideadditional
shade
Increasedinformationandvisitstoelderlyresidents
CoordinatewithQPWStodevelopalinkednetwork
ofparks/reserves
�7
2 prIOrITISING ThE rISkRiskisassessedbybothlikelihoodandconsequence,accordingtotheriskassessmentprocessacrossthewholeofCouncilactivities.Thisisacriticalstep,asthelevelofriskwillinfluencewhatadaptationmeasuresareappropriate,andtheirpriority.Belowisasampleofariskassessmentforincreasingtemperatures.
review point: doyouhaveadequateinformationontemperatureriskstohaveconfidenceinyourassessment?Ifnot,consideracquiringadditional:
• externalexpertise,
• information,whichmayincludeupdatedmodellingforyourarea,ortranslatingscientificinformationatabroadscaletoascaleappropriatetoLocalGovernmentdecisions.
likelihood
Consequences
Minimal Low Moderate Major Catastrophic
Almost certain IncreasedenergyuseinCouncilbuildings
Designguidelinesforbuildingsupdatedreinsulation,ventilation
Deathsfromheatstress
likely Demandforincreasedshadefromstreetfurniture,shelters,awnings
Changedstaffworkinghourstomanageheat
Reducedcommunityuseofoutdoorvenues(egplaygrounds)inhotweather
Poweroverloadfromairconditioning:powersupplyshutsdown
Intensebushfireinwatersupplycatchment
possible Sportingeventsrescheduledinheatwaves
Intensebushfiresinmajorbushlandreserves
Lowsoilmoistureresultsinnonviabilityofagriculturalindustry
unlikely Increasedlevelsofsmokeandairpollution
rare
CASE STUDY
Start early, Finish early – Cook Shire Council avoids the heat
Averagetemperaturesareprojectedtoincreaseunderclimatechange,asarethenumberofveryhotdaysexperienced,andthefrequencyofheatwaveconditions.Apotentialhealthimpactisanincreaseinthefrequencyofheatstress.
CookShireexperiencesveryhotsummers.Inconsultationwithstaff,theCouncilhasinitiatedamoreflexibleapproachtoworkinghourssothattheexternalworkforcecanavoidtheheatoftheday.TheCouncilhasanexternalworkforceofupto40peopleemployedonroadworks,drainageandbridgeworkprojects.
Insteadofthetraditionalworkingdayfrom8amto5pm,theexternalworkforcenowstartsat6.30am,hasalongerbreakintheheatoftheday,andfinishesat3.30pm.Thisisanexcellentexampleofmakingabehaviourchange–inthiscaserelatedtoworkinghours–toadapttoclimatechange.
��
3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrESResponsesandadaptationstotheriskfromincreasingtemperaturescoverabroadspectrumofpossiblemeasures.Althoughthelistofpossiblemeasuresisextensive,thestructureandkeyissuesbelowshouldbothfocusdiscussionandtriggeradditional,suitablemeasures.
Informed and aware Isinformationrequiredonextremeeventsgearedtohealthandsafety–ormoregeneralinformationoneffectsfromincreasingtemperatures?
Informationcanbetargetedtovulnerablegroups(elderly,veryyoung,sportinggroups)
Informationcouldencouragebetterdesignforallbuildingsandstructures–notjustthosemanagedbyCouncil?Coordinatingeffortswithindustrypeakbodieswillbeimportant
Istheobjectivetoinform…orachievebehaviourandattitudechange?Thelatterisalongertermobjective
Making plans DoheatwavesneedtobeincludedintheDisasterManagementPlan?
Agreenspaceplaninurbanareaswillhelpamelioratetheheatislandeffect
Reviewbushfiremanagementplanforpotentialofincreasedbushfirerisk
Integratehighriskareasintotheplanningscheme,localareaplans
Catchmentmanagementplansassessedforincreasedbushfirerisk–especiallyincatchmentsimportantforwatersupply,rivers,lakesorwetlands,orbiodiversity
DoesthelocalorregionalEconomicDevelopmentPlantakeaccountofimpactsfromincreasingtemperaturesanddecreasingsoilmoisture–particularlyforactivitieslinkedtoprimaryproduction?
Improving design Shadeauditsofexistingoutdoorspaceswillidentifyareasforimprovement
Shadestructuresincorporatedintoalloutdoorfacilitiesandaspartofbuildings
Buildingcodereviewtoassessadequacyofexistingdesignrequirementsforincreasingtemperaturesegshade,ventilation,insulation,orientation
Designofstreetfurniture,shelters,awningsforimprovedshadeandshelter
Identifyopportunitiestoretrofitimproveddesignguidelines,andwherenewdesignguidelineswillbesufficient
Areasofincreasedbushfirerisk–reviewexistingguidelinesforappropriateland-uses,ingress,egress,buildingdesign
diversifying, spreading the risk
Planforanetworkofnaturalhabitatthatismoreadaptabletoincreasedfireanddryingrisks
Declineinsoilmoisturemayrequireadditionalirrigationtocompensate;arewatersuppliesavailable,reliableandadequateintothefuture?Whatalternativesarefeasible?
Changedworkinghoursandappropriateworkclothingforstaffgivesgreaterflexibilitytocopewithincreasedtemperatures
Assesstheimpactofincreasedenergyrequirementsforcooling,airconditioningontheenergysupplycapacity
Heatandwatertolerantplantspecies,changingmowingpatterns,improvedgardeningpracticesmayreduceneedforadditionalirrigationinparks
location, location, location
Reviewsuitabilityofspecificactivitiesinareasofhighbushfirerisk.Assessthelongtermsuitabilityoftheareaforprimaryproductionactivitiesgivenhottertemperaturesandlowersoilmoisture.Assesstheoptionsto:
Abandon –orplanastrategicretreatfromactivitiesorfacilitiesinhighriskareasifthecoststoadaptaretoohigh,orrisksremainunacceptable
Accommodate –continuedoccupation,butwithadjustments(egnewguidelines)toprotectassets
Avoid –locatenewdevelopmentinlowerriskareas
��
Climatechangerisk:increasingbushfireintensityandfrequency
Adaptation Measure
Actions external partners Role Lead in Council
Updatedplanningguidelinesforingressandegresstodevelopmentinhighriskareas
Updatebushfireriskmapping
BushfireCRC
EPA/QPWS
Primaryindustrypeakbodies
Bestpracticebushfireriskassessment
Recentbushfireriskmodelling
Implicationsforruralactivities
Environment
Newguidelinesintoplanningscheme
LGAQ
Peakdevelopmentindustrybodies
DeptEmergencyServices
Coordinationwithothergoodexamples
Inputtoguidelines;implicationsfordesignofnewdevelopment
Practicalguidelinesforimplementation
Planning&Development
Applytoallnewdevelopmentapplications
Peakdevelopmentindustrybodies
Community
Supportforimplementation
Implicationsforhousing,safety,environment
Planning&Development
4 ThE ACTion plAnTheriskassessmentandselectionofsuitableadaptationmeasuresneedstobedevelopedintoapracticalactionplan.Thisrequiresconsideringthreesteps:
Internal integration: acknowledging the links• Identifyinglinksand
integrationrequiredwithinCouncil,acrossthevariousCouncilsections
Fine tuning• Theriskassessmentandselecting
adaptationmeasuressetsthebasicprioritiesforaction.However,thesefactorsmayalsoberelevantinfine-tuninganactionplan:
–communityexpectationsand priorities
–timingforsupport,resources fromotherorganisations, governments
–stageinCouncil’splanningand fundingcycles
–ease/impactofmeasures(what iseasytoimplement,andwill haveasubstantialimpact?)
–whatarewedoingalready? Whatisanewinitiative,and whatbuildsonpreviousactivities?
External partners and coordination: avoid going it alone• IdentifyingissuesandmeasureswhichareoutsideCouncil’s
influence,responsibilityorextendacrossawidergeographicarea.Wherearegionalapproachisessentialforcost-effectiveorcoordinatedaction,orwhereStateandAustralianGovernmentshavesignificantroles,resourcesorresponsibilities.
Regional
Council
RegionalEconomicDevelopmentStrategy
Peakindustrybodyinput
Assistancepackagetechnicaladvice
AdApTATION MEASurE: Assess soil moisture impact
on horticulture industry
Australia
Queensland
plan + development
Designguidelinestoincreaseshade,
ventilation,insulation
Corporate +Community Services
avoidextremeheat
InfrastructureConstructionof
facilitiesusingnewdesign
Environment
AdApTATION MEASurE: reduce heat-stress in outdoor recreation venues
ScheduleeventstoProtectexisting
vegetationcorridors,increase
linkages
Provisionofinformationandlocalsupport
�0
1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkS Measurementsindicatethatsealevelhasbeenrisingoverthelastcenturyandclimatescientistspredictthatthiswillcontinue.Globally,sealevelisprojectedtorisebetween18cmand59cmbytheendofthe21stcentury(IPCC2007).CSIROprojectionspreparedfortheQueenslandGovernmentestimatethatsealevelalongtheQueenslandcoastcouldrisebetween3cmand17cmby2030andbetween7cmand50cmby2070.Thepreciseincreaseinsealevelatanyparticularspotalongthecoastwilldependondetailsregardinglocalcoastalgeography,oceancurrentsandwinddirections.
TheconcentrationofsettlementalongtheQueenslandcoast,andassociatedresidential,commercialandindustrialactivitymakessealevelriseaparticularlysignificantissueforcoastalLocalGovernments.Thoughsealevelrisewilloccurgraduallyandcauseimpactsoveralongperiodoftime,itwillcontributetoclimatechangeimpactsintheshort-termthroughitscontributiontoincreasedstormsurgeandcoastalflooding,whichisdealtwithhereinaseparatesection.
possible impacts across core local Government functions
Public safety Contributionofsealevelrisetomorefrequentandgreatermagnitudecoastalfloodingwillposeriskstopublicsafety
economic development Negativeimpactonlocallysignificantcoastaltourismassetsegdegradationofwetlandsystemsduetosaltwaterintrusion
Futureurbanexpansionareasmaybenolongerappropriategivensealevelrise,havingimpactondevelopment-relatedindustries
Community & lifestyle Coastalrecreationareaslikelytosufferseriousdamagethatwillaffectcommunitylifestylesegerosiontocoastalparks,damagetoboardwalks
Increasedloss/damageofprivatepropertyinvulnerablecoastalareaswillimpactsustainabilityofcoastallifestyleinsomeareas
environment Degradationtowetlandsduetosealevelrise,shorelineerosionandsaltwaterintrusion
Lossofbeachwidth,includingincreasederosionandlossofcoastaldunesystems
Financial, legal liabilities Ratebaseaffectediffutureprojecteddevelopmentunabletoproceedbecauseofsealevelriseimpacts
Possiblelegalliabilitiesifdevelopmentpermittedinareassubjecttosealevelrise
essential infrastructure Stormsurgeandfloodingcontributedtobysealevelrisecandestroyordamageinfrastructureinlowlyingcoastalareas:roads,bridges,watersupply,wastewateroutfalls
DamagetoCouncilmanagedboatramps,marinas,coastalboardwalks
Salinationofsurfaceandgroundwatersupplies
Existingcoastaldefencesmaybeinsufficienttoprotectagainststormsurgeandcoastalflooding
Theimpactsabovearenotexhaustive,butindicatearangethatwillaffectallareasofCouncil.ItisforthisreasontheriskassessmentshouldbeundertakenacrossallCouncilactivitiesandinvolvingstakeholdersfromallsections.Thisisfurtherillustratedbytheexamplebelow,whichtrackseffectsandpossibleresponsesacrossvarioussectionsofCouncilforoneimpactfromsealevelrise:saltwaterintrusion.
links across Council for salt water intrusion impacts and responses
Impact planning & development Infrastructure Community services Environment
Saltwaterintrudesfurtherupwaterwaysandinto
wetlands
Salinationofsurfaceandgroundwatersupplies
Increasedcorrosionofinfrastructure–bridges,
pipenetworksetc
Recreationactivitiesdependantonfreshwater
degraded
Wetlandecosystemsdegraded
possible response
RevisePlanningSchemetodirectdevelopmentelsewhere,orplanfor
alternativewatersupplies
Designguidelinesupdatedtoreducedamage
Assessifanyoptionstoreducedamage,andplannewrecreationfacilities
elsewhere
Plantoenableshiftingdistributionofecosystems;
considerpossibleengineeringsolutuions
Sea level rise
�1
2 prIOrITISING ThE rISkRiskisassessedbybothlikelihoodandconsequence,accordingtotheriskassessmentprocessacrossthewholeofCouncilactivities.Thisisacriticalstep,asthelevelofriskwillinfluencewhatadaptationmeasuresareappropriate,andtheirpriority.Belowisasampleofariskassessmentforsealevelrise.
review point:doyouhaveadequateinformationonsealevelriseriskstohaveconfidenceinyourassessment?Ifnot,consideracquiringadditional:
• externalexpertise,
• information,whichmayincludeupdatedmodellingforyourarea,ortranslatingscientificinformationatabroadscaletoascaleappropriatetoLocalGovernmentdecisions.
likelihood
Consequences
Minimal Low Moderate Major Catastrophic
Almost certain Coastalparksandrecreationareasdamaged
Degradationofnaturaltourismassetsegbeaches,wetlands
Coastaldunesystemseverelyeroded
Inundationofsomepublicinfrastructureegroads
Somecoastalcommunitiessufferinginundationarenolongerhabitable
likely Increasedcorrosiontoinfrastructureassetsfromsaltwaterintrusion
Futureurbanexpansionareasnolongersuitablefordevelopment
Degradationtofreshwaterwetlandsystems
Touristresorts&facilitiesdamaged
Lossofessentialinfrastructure
possible Salinationofsurfaceandgroundwatersupplies
unlikely
rare
CASE STUDY
Gold Coast City Council assesses the implications of sea level rise for the location of future land development
Gold Coast City has experienced rapid population growth for a considerable period of time, which is projected to continue. Situated along the coast, with considerable further land development anticipated in the coastal plain, the effects of climate change on sea level rise is a significant issue. In many Local Government areas, land development is required to be above the Q100 level (the level of the 100 year Average Return Interval (ARI) flood), however determining this level has not typically taken account of the climate change effect on sea level rise and coastal flooding.
In 1998 Gold Coast City Council pioneered the introduction of the impact of sea level rise in town planning by commissioning CSIRo to conduct a detailed modelling assessment to estimate sea level rise in the region to 2070. there are significant local effects that have a bearing on the actual sea level rise experienced at any specific location, including effects caused by land subsidence and groundwater extraction, and differences in winds and ocean currents caused by climate change itself. Some of these factors are estimated in the CSIRo modelling study, based on the output of the CSIRo climate model, and estimates are made of the sea level rise to 2070.
As a result of this detailed assessment, Council has adopted a 27cm ‘buffer’ additional to Q100 flood levels for new development, in order to accommodate potential sea level rise predicted for the Gold Coast. this was based on CSIRos estimate of most probable sea level rise that may occur by 2070. Gold Coast City have commissioned further CSIRo modelling to add further resolution to this issue – particularly in terms of possible storm surge levels and frequency specific to the local area.
��
3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrESResponsesandadaptationstotheriskfromincreasingtemperaturescoverabroadspectrumofpossiblemeasures.Althoughthelistofpossiblemeasuresisextensive,thestructureandkeyissuesbelowshouldbothfocusdiscussionandtriggeradditional,suitablemeasures.
Informed and aware Dowehavethebestassessmentsofthelikelyextentandrateofsealevelriseinourlocalarea–includingimplicationsforstormsurges
Provideinformationtolocalcommunityregardingsealevelriseandtimeframeoverwhichimpactslikelytooccur–fromshorttermtolongterm.
Generateinformationontheinteractionbetweensealevelrise,stormsurgeandcoastalflooding
Provideinformationtolocalcommunityregardingadaptationoptions
Making plans Haveexistingareasofdevelopmentmostvulnerabletosealevelrisebeenidentified?Dowehavearesponseplandeveloped?
Doesourlanduseplanningschemefactorinsealevelriseinidentifyinglandsuitableforfuturedevelopment?Wherearetheareasofhighestrisk–andarethelandusesappropriate?Whatland-usesshouldavoidthemostvulnerableareas?
Whichplanningschemepoliciesrequirereview?
Isadetailedlocalareaplanrequiredforanylowlyingcoastalareasathighorextremerisk?
Naturalenvironmentplanning–whichnaturalsystemsareatriskofdegradationfromsealevelrise.Considerallowingformigrationorshiftingdistribution,andcoordinatewithQPWS
Improving design Reviewrelevantguidelinesordesignstandards–buildingcodes,walkwaysandboardwalks,boatramps,jetties,marinas,roaddesign
Cancoastaldunesystemsbeimprovedtooffergreaterdefencetolowlyingareas?
Areengineeringstructurescost-effectiveinreducingriskincertainlocations?
diversifying, spreading the risk
Havealternativestowatersupply,wastetreatment,powersupplybeenevaluatedtoensureminimaldisruptiontotheseessentialservices?
Identifyanysignificanteconomicactivitiesthatareheavilyreliantonasingleresourcethatisvulnerabletosealevelrise.Examineoptionstodiversifytheseactivitiesandsospreadtherisk
location, location, location
Whichareasaremostvulnerabletosealevelrise?
Evaluatetheoptionsforthesevulnerableareasandtheirlanduses:
Abandon –orplanastrategicretreatfromfacilities,structures,land-uses,economicenterprisesinhighriskareasifthecoststoadaptaretoohigh,orrisksremainunacceptable
Accommodate –continueoccupation,butwithadjustments(egnewbuildingdesign),actionsandstructurestoprotectassets
Avoid –locatenewdevelopmentinlowriskareas
��
Climatechangerisk:localisedflooding
Adaptation Measure
Actions external partners Role Lead in Council
Assesscoastalareasmostvulnerabletobeacherosion
Updatemodelling&mapping
University
EPA
Harbours&Marine
ROC
Coastalprocessesandmodelling
Coastalmanagement,erosionrisk
Coastalinfrastructure
Regionalcoordination
Environment
Assesshighriskbeachareas
EPA
Harbours&Marine
Beacherosion,erosionriskmodelling
Implicationsforcoastalinfrastructure
Environment
Evaluateoptionstominimisedamagethatcouldarise
University
EPA
Harbours&Marine
Community
Understandingcoastalprocesses
Coastalmanagementoptions
Infrastructureoptions
Communityvaluesandpriorities
Infrastructure
Implementmeasuresthatcouldreduceimpacts
UDIA
University
EPA
Harbours&Marine
Community
Implicationsforurbandevelopment
Longtermeffectsoncoastalprocesses
Coastalmanagementoptions
Implicationsforcoastalinfrastructure
Supportforapproach
Planning&Development
4 ThE ACTion plAnTheriskassessmentandselectionofsuitableadaptationmeasuresneedstobedevelopedintoapracticalactionplan.Thisrequiresconsideringthreesteps:
Internal integration: acknowledging the links• Identifyinglinksand
integrationrequiredwithinCouncil,acrossthevariousCouncilsections
Fine tuning• Theriskassessmentandselecting
adaptationmeasuressetsthebasicprioritiesforaction.However,thesefactorsmayalsoberelevantinfine-tuninganactionplan:
–communityexpectationsand priorities
–timingforsupport,resources fromotherorganisations, governments
–stageinCouncil’splanningand fundingcycles
–ease/impactofmeasures(what iseasytoimplement,andwill haveasubstantialimpact?)
–whatarewedoingalready? Whatisanewinitiative,and whatbuildsonpreviousactivities?
External partners and coordination: avoid going it alone• IdentifyingissuesandmeasureswhichareoutsideCouncil’s
influence,responsibilityorextendacrossawidergeographicarea.Wherearegionalapproachisessentialforcost-effectiveorcoordinatedaction,orwhereStateandAustralianGovernmentshavesignificantroles,resourcesorresponsibilities.
Regional
Council
AdApTATION MEASurE: Australia
Queensland
plan + developmentImplicationsforexisting&newdevelopment
Corporate +Community Services
Councilfacilities&infrastructure
InfrastructureImplications&
optionsforinfrastructure
EnvironmentMaintainoptionsfor
environmentaladaptation
AdApTATION MEASurE: review planning scheme
revise flood management strategy
Developcommunityfloodpreparedness
Coordinatewithrelevantregionalresponses
Coordinatewithstateemergencyservices
AccessanduselatestsealevelriseR&D
��
Storms1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkSStormintensityandfrequencyislikelytoincreasewithclimatechange.Thenumberofintenserainfalleventsandtheintensityofindividualeventsisprojectedtoincrease,eveninareaswhereadeclineinaveragerainfallisprojected.Returnperiodsoflargereventsisexpectedtodecrease.Averagewindspeedsandgustsassociatedwithstormsarealsolikelytoincrease.Hailstormscouldbemorefrequentthanpreviously.
IncreasedrainfallintensityisaparticularlysignificantissueforLocalGovernmentasitwillincreasetheriskofflashflooding,landslidesandsevereerosionthatcoulddamagesignificantinfrastructureandpublicassets,andcauseconsiderablecommunitydisruption.Moreintensivestormsaffectbothcoastalandinlandareas.
possible impacts across core local Government functions
Public safety Safetyofresidentsandvisitorsisofparamountconcern,andwillbethreatenedbyincreasedwindspeedsandintenserainfallevents.Safetyrisksposedbyflashfloodingandflyingdebrismayincrease
Increaseddemandforemergencyservices
economic development IncreasedfrequencyofintensestormeventscouldsubstantiallyincreaseCouncilmaintenancecosts
Morefrequentand/orprolongedfloodingcouldseriouslyeffectregionswitheconomiesparticularlyreliantonroadtransportegwheretourism-basedeconomiesrelyonroadaccess
Community & lifestyle Moreintenserainfalleventscouldresultinmorefrequentand/orprolongedfloodingthatmaysignificantlydisruptaccesstosomeareas,affectingsupplyofgoodsreliantonroadtransport,andaccesstoservices
environment Damagetonaturalsystemscausedbystormeventscouldresultingreaterlikelihoodofpestandweedinvasion
Increasedchanceofcontaminantsbeingtransportedtowaterwaysduringintensestorms–includingfromCouncilwastemanagementsites
Damagetocropsfromhail,wind,rain
Erosionofriverbanks
Financial, legal liabilities Increasedcostsassociatedwithmaintenanceofpublicfacilities
Increasedliabilitymayresultfrombuildingdamagecausedbydesigningtoinappropriatebuildingcodes/standards
essential infrastructure Morefrequentfloodingofroads(includingbuildings)causingwashoutsandotherdamage
Capacityofstormwaterandwastewaternetworksmorefrequentlyexceeded,causingmorefrequentoverflows
Damagecausedbymorefrequentinundationtorangeofutilities–water,wastewater,telecommunications,gasetc
Increasederosioncausingdamagetoarangeofpublicfacilities,especiallyincoastalareas
Damagetobuildingscausedbywind,rain,hail&floodevents
Theimpactsabovearenotexhaustive,butindicatearangethatwillaffectallareasofCouncil.ItisforthisreasontheriskassessmentshouldbeundertakenacrossallCouncilactivitiesandinvolvingstakeholdersfromallsections.Thisisfurtherillustratedbytheexamplebelow,whichtrackseffectsandpossibleresponsesacrossvarioussectionsofCouncilforoneimpactfromstorms:stormwaternetworkoverflows.
links across Council for stormwater network overflow impacts and responses
Impact planning & development Infrastructure Community services Environment
Morefrequentoverflowsfromstormwaternetworks
Lowlyingareasvulnerabletomorefrequentflooding
Damagetoroadsandotherinfrastructurecaused
byflooding
Increaseddemandonemergencymanagement
resources
Riskofcontaminantsbeingcarriedto
waterwaysduetoflooding
possible response
Ensurecatchmentfloodplanningintegratedwithurbandrainageplanning
Reviewdesignguidelines&wherenecessary
implementupgradeworks
Prepareacommunity‘FloodPreparedness
Strategy’
Planbufferstowaterwaysanduseofwetland
systemsas‘storage’areas
�5
2 prIOrITISING ThE rISkRiskisassessedbybothlikelihoodandconsequence,accordingtotheriskassessmentprocessacrossthewholeofCouncilactivities.Thisisacriticalstep,asthelevelofriskwillinfluencewhatadaptationmeasuresareappropriate,andtheirpriority.Belowisasampleofariskassessmentforstorms.
review point:doyouhaveadequateinformationonstormriskstohaveconfidenceinyourassessment?Ifnot,consideracquiringadditional:
• externalexpertise,
• information,whichmayincludeupdatedmodellingforyourarea,ortranslatingscientificinformationatabroadscaletoascaleappropriatetoLocalGovernmentdecisions.
likelihood
Consequences
Minimal Low Moderate Major Catastrophic
Almost certain Stormwaternetworkoverflowscauselocalisedflooding
Erosionofriverbanksfromflooding
likely Wetlands/lakesreceiveadditionalflows
Publicbuildingsdamagedbywindgusts
Significantnumberofroadwashoutsrequiringrepair
Hailstormscausemajordamagetocropsinlocalarea
Roadsflooded–manyareasinaccessibleforprolongedperiod
possible Pollutantstransportedtowaterwaysand/orwatersupply
Spreadofmosquitobornedisease
Prelongedlackofroadaccessduetofloodwaters
Wastewatertreatmentplantflooded-severepollutionandhealthrisk
unlikely Drowningscausedonrapidonsetoffloods
rare
CASE STUDY
Storms and building design
TheseverehailstorminSydneyApril1999wasthemostexpensiveinsuranceeventinAustralia’shistory.Areviewofthedamagebytheinsuranceindustryhighlightedsomeusefulimplicationsforbuildingdesignforlocationswithariskofincreasingstormintensity:
• Mostdamageoccurredinbuildingswithtileorasbestosfibrecementroofs(brittlematerials),inadditiontoresultingfloodingandwaterdamagetogoodsandcontents
• Olderstylebuildingsoftenhadnospaceunderneathforcars–resultinginextensivedamagetocarsparkedinstreets
• Costsanddelayssubstantiallyincreasedduetoshortageofskilledbuildingworkers
• Delaysinrepairs(upto12months)requiredmoresubstantialmaterialsthantarpaulins–contributingtothecost.
Thedamagesuggestsappropriatebuildingmaterialsforroofsandcoverforvehiclesmaybeaconsiderationinreviewingfuturedesigncodesinareaspronetoincreasedstormrisk.
��
3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrESResponsesandadaptationstotheriskfromstormeventscoverabroadspectrumofpossiblemeasures.Althoughthelistisextensive,thestructureandkeyissuesbelowshouldbothfocusdiscussionandtriggeradditional,suitablemeasures.
Informed and aware Whatisthequalityofinformationconcerningthelikelihoodandnatureofincreasedstormeventsinthelocalarea?
Localresidentsneedthenecessaryinformationtoprepareforstormevents.Informationtoreduceriskofinjuryorpropertydamagewouldbeuseful
Making plans Haveareasoffloodriskfromextremestormeventsbeenidentified?
Floodlinesmayneedamending,whichhasimportantimplicationsfortheplanningscheme,futuredevelopmentandreviewofimplicationsforexistingland-uses
ReviewtheDisasterManagementPlanforstormsandflooding,andupdateifnecessary.Considertheneedforacommunity-focusedFloodPreparednessStrategy,whichwouldimprovecommunityresponsesinemergencysituations–reducingsafetyrisks,anddemandsonemergencyresponseresources
Havecontingencyplansbeenmadefortheprovisionofessentialgoodsandservicesintheeventofprolongedlackofroadaccess?
Doinfrastructurereplacementplansconsidertheoptionsformovingflood-proneinfrastructuretohigherground?
Thenaturalenvironmentmayhavesomebenefitsfromadditionalflowstowetlands,rivers,lakes,although,turbidorcontaminatedfloodwaterscanposeriskstoseagrass,aquaticecosystems.Environmentplanshelptoimprovetheirconditiontoincreaseresiliencetomoreintensestormevents
Improving design Assesstheincreasedfloodrisktowastewatertreatmentplantsandotheressentialinfrastructure
Reviewrelevantguidelinesorcodes–buildingcodes,stormwaterinfrastructuredesign,roaddesignstandards
Canexistinginfrastructurebecost-effectivelyupgraded?
Canexistinginfrastructure(egdams)beupgradedtocopewithmoreintensivestormsandincreasedfloodrisk?
diversifying, spreading the risk
Candrainagemeasuresbediversifiedtodecreaserelianceonstormwaternetworkandreduceimpactoffloodpeakegoptionsforoverlandflows,retentionbasins,wetlands?
Arealternativetransportroutesavailableintheeventoflocalisedfloodingtosomeroads?
location, location, location
Whatland-usesandessentialinfrastructurearelocatedinareasmostvulnerabletofloodrisk,basedonupdatedmodelling?
Assesstheoptionsfortheseusesandareas:
Plan a strategic retreatfromfacilities,structures,land-uses,economicenterprisesinhighriskareasifthecoststoadaptaretoohigh,orrisksremainunacceptable
Accommodate –continuedoccupation,butwithadjustments(egnewbuildingdesign),actionsandstructurestoprotectassets
Avoid – locatenewdevelopmentinlowriskareas.Avoidcontinueddevelopmentinhighriskareas.
�7
Fine tuning• Theriskassessmentandselecting
adaptationmeasuressetsthebasicprioritiesforaction.However,thesefactorsmayalsoberelevantinfine-tuninganactionplan:
–communityexpectationsand priorities
–timingforsupport,resources fromotherorganisations, governments
–stageinCouncil’splanningand fundingcycles
–ease/impactofmeasures(what iseasytoimplement,andwill haveasubstantialimpact?)
–whatarewedoingalready? Whatisanewinitiative,and whatbuildsonpreviousactivities?
External partners and coordination: avoid going it alone• IdentifyingissuesandmeasureswhichareoutsideCouncil’s
influence,responsibilityorextendacrossawidergeographicarea.Wherearegionalapproachisessentialforcost-effectiveorcoordinatedaction,orwhereStateandAustralianGovernmentshavesignificantroles,resourcesorresponsibilities.
4 ThE ACTion plAnTheriskassessmentandselectionofsuitableadaptationmeasuresneedstobedevelopedintoapracticalactionplan.Thisrequiresconsideringthreesteps:
Internal integration: acknowledging the links• Identifyinglinksand
integrationrequiredwithinCouncil,acrossthevariousCouncilsections
Climatechangerisk:localisedflooding
Adaptation Measure
Actions external partners Role Lead in Council
Reviewplanningbasedonupdatedfloodmodelling
Updatemodelling&mapping
DNRW Floodmodellingapproaches Infrastructure
Incorporateintoplanningscheme
UDIA,Industry
LGAQ
Community
DNRW
Implicationsfornew&existingdevelopment
Coordinatewithothergoodexamples
Implicationsforexisting&futuredevelopment
Technicaladvice
Planning&Development
ReviewStormwaterDrainageManual–designstandards
LGAQ
DNRW
CoordinatewithotherCouncils
Designguidelinesandstandards
Infrastructure
Reviewrisktoexistinglandusesinnewfloodproneareas&decideaction
UDIA,Industry
Community
Liaisonreimplications,supportfordecisions
Implications,andsupportfordecisions
Planning&Development
Australia
Queensland
Regional
Council
Economicassistancepackage
Economicassistancepackage
Optionsforregionalcoordination&deliveryofupgrades
Determineinfrastructurereplacementpriorities
AdApTATION MEASurE: upgrade existing infrastructure
plan + development
Doesplanningschemeseektoreducedisasterrisks
Corporate +Community Services
Implicationsfordisastermanagement
resources
InfrastructureIsprotectionof
keyinfrastructuretakenintoaccount
EnvironmentCandisastermanagement
AdApTATION MEASurE: review disaster management plan
initiatives/assetsintegratewithenvironmentinitiatives
egwetlandbasin
��
1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkSTropicalcyclonesaretypicallyrestrictedtocoastalareasofNorthernAustralia,andareprojectedtobecomemoreintensewithlikelyincreasesinbothrainfallandwindspeeds.Thenumbersofcyclonesexperiencedeachyearcoulddecrease,althoughthisisuncertain.Cyclonesareoftenaccompaniedbystormsurges,whichcanraisesealevelsbyupto0.5metre,causingwidespreadfloodingalonglowlyingterrainincoastalareas.
Thehighlydestructivenatureoftropicalcyclones,coupledwiththecoastallocationformuchofourcommercialactivity,populationandessentialinfrastructuremakesthisclimatechangeelementafocusforcoastalLocalGovernments–particularlythoseinnorthernAustralia.Alevelofplanninghasalreadyoccurredincyclone-proneCouncilsthroughlocalDisasterManagementPlans.
possible impacts across core local Government functions
Public safety Safetyofresidentsandvisitorsisofparamountconcern,andwillbethreatenedbyincreasedwindspeedsandstormsurges.
economic development Damagetocrops,tourismandotherindustrycouldthreatentheeconomicbaseofLocalGovernments.
Community & lifestyle Manycommunitiestothenorthareisolatedandwillbeinaccessibleafterfloodingrainordamagetotransportinfrastructure.
Coastalrecreationareaslikelytosufferseriousdamagethatwillaffectcommunitylifestyles.
environment Floodingoftenresultsinthespreadofmosquitobornediseases.
Manyeconomicactivitiesrelyonnaturalresourcesingoodconditionfortheircontinuedproductivity–coralreefs,beaches,wetlands,riversfortourism,fishing.
Financial, legal liabilities Ratebaseaffectedforsomeyearsifeconomicactivitiesbadlydisrupted.
Increasedliabilitymayresultfrombuildingdamagecausedbydesigningtoinappropriatebuildingcodes/standards.
essential infrastructure Stormsurgescandestroyordamageinfrastructureinlowlyingcoastalareas:roads,bridges,watersupply,wastewateroutfalls.
DamagetoCouncilmanagedboatramps,marinas,coastalboardwalks.
Theimpactsabovearenotexhaustive,butindicatearangethatwillaffectallareasofCouncil.ItisforthisreasontheriskassessmentshouldbeundertakenacrossallCouncilactivitiesandinvolvingstakeholdersfromallsections.Thisisfurtherillustratedbytheexamplebelow,whichtrackseffectsandpossibleresponsesacrossvarioussectionsofCouncilforoneimpactfromtropicalcyclones:stormsurge.
links across Council for storm surge impacts and responses
Impact planning & development Infrastructure Community services Environment
Coastalflooding Lowlyingcoastalareasvulnerabletostormsurge
Damagetoboatramps,boardwalks,marinas
Coastalaccessdisrupted–recreation,tourism,
industryaffected
Coastalecosystems(wetlands,reefs,estuaries,
dunes)damaged
possible response
Erosionrisk&stormsurgelinesupdatedtoreview
locations,setbacks
Designguidelinesupdatedtoreducedamage
Diversifymarineaccesstoreducerelianceonone
accesspoint
Planningtoincreaseabilityofnaturalsystemsto
adapt&recover
Cyclones
��
2 prIOrITISING ThE rISkRiskisassessedbybothlikelihoodandconsequence,accordingtotheriskassessmentprocessacrossthewholeofCouncilactivities.Thisisacriticalstep,asthelevelofriskwillinfluencewhatadaptationmeasuresareappropriate,andtheirpriority.Belowisasampleofariskassessmentforcyclones.
review point:doyouhaveadequateinformationoncycloneriskstohaveconfidenceinyourassessment?Ifnot,consideracquiringadditional:
• externalexpertise,
• information,whichmayincludeupdatedmodellingforyourarea,ortranslatingscientificinformationatabroadscaletoascaleappropriatetoLocalGovernmentdecisions.
likelihood
Consequences
Minimal Low Moderate Major Catastrophic
Almost certain Coastalparksandrecreationareasdamaged
Coastaldunesystemseverelyeroded
Cropswipedout
Housesdamaged/destroyed
likely Wetlands&fishbreedinggroundsaffected
Touristresorts&facilitiesdamaged
Roadsflooded–manyareasinaccessible
possible Spreadofmosquitobornedisease
Waterreticulationdamaged–watersupplydisrupted
unlikely Pastoralindustrydamaged
Miningactivitydisrupted
rare
CASE STUDY
City of thuringowa – assessing the coastal options
TheCityofThuringowahasstarteda2yearinvestigationofthepossibleimpactsofsealevelrise,coastalerosionandstormsurge,underclimatechange,onthecoastalcommunitiesnorthofTownsville.
TheCouncilhaspartneredwithJamesCookUniversitytoprepareanassessmentofthelikelyimpactsoftheseprocessesonthebeachesandcommunitiesnorthofTownsville,andtoassessavailableadaptationoptions.Theprojectwillincludeaclimatechangeimpactriskassessmentforexistingandpossiblefuturedevelopment,andadetailedassessmentofavailableadaptationoptionsthatincludesconsiderationofreliability,designconstraints,designlife,capitalandmaintenancecosts,andenvironmentalissuesassociatedwithpossibleoptions.
Adaptationoptionsthatcouldbeconsideredincludecapitalworksassociatedwithupgradinginfrastructureorshiftingittolocationslesssusceptibletocoastalflooding,orretreatfromparticularlyvulnerableareasshouldthatbecomenecessary.TheprojectwillprovideCounciltheinformationitneedstounderstandthefullrangeofclimatechangeimplicationsforthesecommunities,andthecostsandbenefitsassociatedwithadaptationoptions.
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3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrESResponsesandadaptationstotheriskfromcyclonescoverabroadspectrumofpossiblemeasures.Althoughthelistofpossiblemeasuresisextensive,thestructureandkeyissuesbelowshouldbothfocusdiscussionandtriggeradditional,suitablemeasures.
Informed and aware Manygroupsarealreadyawareofrisksincycloneproneareas.Whatadditionalinformationisusefulfortheprojectedincreaseincycloneintensity?
Whichgroupsarethetargetsforinformation?Istheobjectivetoinform,createawareness,influencedecisions?
Whatistheroleofinformationinadaptingtoincreasedrisk?Willitachievethis?
Istheobjectivetoinform…orachievebehaviourandattitudechange?Thelatterisalongertermobjective.
Making plans Doesourcurrentdisasterplanfactorinincreasedintensityofcyclones–andlikelyincreaseindamage?
AreadjoiningCouncils’disasterplanscompatible?WhatservicesaresharedbyadjoiningCouncils(egwatersupply,hospital,airport)–andhowdoesthisaffectus?
Howdoesincreasedcycloneriskaffecttheplanningschemeandplanningdecisions?Wherearetheareasofhighestrisk–andarethelandusesappropriate?Whatland-usesshouldavoidthemostvulnerableareas?
Havepredictedincreasesinfloodsandstormsurgesbeenmodelledandmapped,andtheimplicationsassessed?
Whichplanningschemepoliciesrequirereview?
Isadetailedlocalareaplanrequiredforanylowlyingcoastalareasathighorextremerisk?
Naturalenvironmentplanning–whatisneededtoimprovetheconditionandresilienceofcoastalecosystemssotheycanadaptandrecover?(considerrehabilitation,restoration,protection,restoration).
Improving design Dobuildingandotherrelevantcodesrequirereview?
Canweretrofitexistingstructurestoincreasetheirsafetyorreliability?
Willincreasedfloodandstormsurgeriskaffectwastewatertreatmentplants?
Whatguidelineswillneedreview–buildingcodes,walkwaysandboardwalks,boatramps,jetties,marinas,roaddesign
Cancoastaldunesystemsbeimprovedtooffergreaterdefencetolowlyingareas?
Areengineeringstructurescost-effectiveinreducingriskincertainlocations?
diversifying, spreading the risk
Havealternativestowatersupply,wastetreatment,powersupplybeenevaluatedtoensureminimaldisruptiontotheseessentialservices?
Issignificanteconomicactivityheavilyreliantonasingleresourceorinfrastructureexposedtocycloneimpacts?Cantheydiversifytospreadtherisk?
location, location, location
Whichareasaremostvulnerabletostormsurge,flooding,cyclonicwinds?(hasmodellingandmappingbeenupdated?)
Assesstheoptionsfortheseareas:
Abandon–orplanastrategicretreatfromfacilities,structures,land-uses,economicenterprisesinhighriskareasifthecoststoadaptaretoohigh,orrisksremainunacceptable
Accommodate–continuedoccupation,butwithadjustments(egnewbuildingdesign),actionsandstructurestoprotectassets
Avoid–locatenewdevelopmentinlowriskareas
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Climatechangerisk:stormsurgelevelsandimplications
Adaptation Measure
Actions external partners Role Lead in Council
Reviewflood&stormsurgelines;assessimplications
Updatemodelling&mapping
CSIRO
ROC,LGAQ
EPA
Harbours&Marine
Cycloneriskandstormsurgemodelling
Regionalapproachandcoordination
Coastalmanagement
Coastalinfrastructureimplications
Environment
Updateplanningscheme LGAQ
DLGPSR
EPA
Community
UDIA,Industry
Primaryindustry
Regionalcoordinationandliaison
Statelevelconsultation
Coastalmanagement
Outcomesofmodellingandimplications
Outcomesofmodellingandimplications
Outcomesofmodellingandimplications
Planning&Development
Evaluatecurrentlandusesforriskandmanagementoptions
UDIA
Industry
Community
EmergencyServices
Supportformanagementoptions
Supportformanagementoptions
Supportformanagementoptions
DisasterManagementPlanning
Planning&Development
Fine tuning• Theriskassessmentandselecting
adaptationmeasuressetsthebasicprioritiesforaction.However,thesefactorsmayalsoberelevantinfine-tuninganactionplan:
–communityexpectationsand priorities
–timingforsupport,resources fromotherorganisations, governments
–stageinCouncil’splanningand fundingcycles
–ease/impactofmeasures(what iseasytoimplement,andwill haveasubstantialimpact?)
–whatarewedoingalready? Whatisanewinitiative,and whatbuildsonpreviousactivities?
External partners and coordination: avoid going it alone• IdentifyingissuesandmeasureswhichareoutsideCouncil’s
influence,responsibilityorextendacrossawidergeographicarea.Wherearegionalapproachisessentialforcost-effectiveorcoordinatedaction,orwhereStateandAustralianGovernmentshavesignificantroles,resourcesorresponsibilities.
4 ThE ACTion plAnTheriskassessmentandselectionofsuitableadaptationmeasuresneedstobedevelopedintoapracticalactionplan.Thisrequiresconsideringthreesteps:
Internal integration: acknowledging the links• Identifyinglinksandintegration
requiredwithinCouncil,acrossthevariousCouncilsections
AustraliaQueenslandRegional
Council
Improvedesignofjetties,marinas
Alternativeboatlaunchsites&facilities
Tourismindustryplanning&support
Economicassistancepackage
AdApTATION MEASurE: diversify coastal
tourism enterprises
plan + developmentlinktoplanning
scheme
Corporate +Community Services
Effectonlibraries,recreationfacilities
InfrastructureImplicationsforinfrastructure
EnvironmentMosquito
breedingissues
AdApTATION MEASurE: review building code
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Where to from here?
TheGuidehasdescribedthecontextofclimatechangeforLocalGovernment,togetherwithitslinkstoCouncil’scorebusiness.TheGuidealsooutlinesaprocessforassessingclimatechangerisk,selectingadaptationmeasures,anddevelopinganactionplan.
Building Councillor support
Enlistingthesupportofelectedrepresentativesiscrucialtoachievingeffectiveoutcomesonanyissue.Climatechangeisnodifferent.Thefundamentalapproachneedstotranslatebroadinformationaboutclimatechangeinto“whatitmeansforourlocalarea”context.
Presentingaconvincingcaseforundertakingadaptationmeasuresislikelytoinvolvethefollowingsteps.Noneofthesestepsrequiresdetailedanalysisorcomplexdata;presentinganoverall,summarypictureofpossibleimpactsandrisksshouldbesufficienttogenerateCouncillorinterestandsupport.Moredetailcanbepresentedastheprocessoutlinedinthenextsectionunfolds.
What does climate change mean for our local area?
TranslateQueensland,regionalinformationanddataintoaninitialbroad‘onground’overviewofimpacts,geographicareaaffected,numberofresidencesandpeopleaffected,impactsoneconomicactivities.Thisdoesnotrequiredetailedanalysis,butageneralassessmentthatpresentsapictureofpossibleimpacts.Thepicturemustgiveasimple,localandpersonalcontexttowhatcanbeseenasaremote,globalissue.
how will climate change impact Council’s core business?
Brieflysummarisethegreatestlikelyimpactsoninfrastructure,assets,communitylifestyleandservices,thenaturalenvironment.TheaimistoprovideasnapshotoftheimplicationsacrossmultipleCouncilfunctionsandservices,ratherthandetail.Includeimplicationsforlegalliability(discussedinthisGuide).
Theimplications(legal,financial,community,environment,economic)ifwedonothingcouldbedescribed.
What are community expectations?
Specificinformationonlocalcommunityviewsonclimatechangemaynotbeavailable,butcommunityinformationonmanagingrisks,extremeevents,environmentalissuesorinformationfromconsultationontheplanningschemewillallberelevant.ConsiderwhatCouncil’sresponsewouldbeifthecommunityasks‘willclimatechangeaffectourarea?Whatarewedoingaboutit?
Our next step
Alogicalandpracticalprocessformovingforwardwillbeuseful.Referto‘Startingtheprocess’sectionintheGuideforsuggestions.
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Starting the process
TostartaprocessinCouncilofassessingandrespondingtoclimatechangerisks,thefollowingseriesofstepscouldprovideausefulstructure.
Build Councillor support
ApplytheprocessandstepsoutlinedabovetoenlistCouncillorsupport.Thisisanessentialfirststep
lead AppointacoordinatortoleadanddrivetheprocesswithinCouncil
CoordinateEstablishasmallgrouprepresentativeofsectionsacrossCounciltocoordinatewithintheirsectionandlinkacrosssections
Assess the risksUndertakeariskassessment.Gatherinformationrequired,assessneedforexternalexpertisetoparticipate
review the gapsAssessanyinformationgapsandneedforadditionalinformation,moredetailed,quantitativeriskassessment
AdaptationIdentifyappropriateadaptationmeasures.Assessthosethatneedaregionalapproach
partnersIdentifypartnersandresources;community,regionalQueensland,StateGovernment,AustralianGovernment,industry
CommunityHowtoengagethecommunity?Agreedstrategyforcommunityengagementincludingpurpose,timing,content,process
Guiding principles
ThefollowingsetofeightguidingprinciplesisdrawnfrommaterialintheGuide.Itisintendedtoprovideusefulandpracticalassistancewhenweighingupoptionsandmakingdecisionsrelatedtoclimatechangerisksandadaptations.
1. The tools are already available and being used
LocalGovernmentisalreadymanagingclimaterelatedrisks.Manytools,frameworksandcapabilitiesusedbyCouncilsarerelevanttoclimatechangeadaptation.
�. Avoid making decisions that limit the future (the precautionary principle).
Avoidtakingdecisionsnowthatwillmakeitmoredifficulttomanageclimatechangerisksinthefuture.
�. To wait for full certainty will mean its too late
Climatechangepredictionshavebeenacceptedashighlylikelytooccurbyover2,500oftheworld’smosteminentscientists.Althoughtherearestillareasofuncertainty,theweightofevidence,confidenceinthescience,andthewiderangingconsequencesofclimatechangemeanwecan’twaitfor100%certaintybeforetakingaction.
�. Adaptation can be small and flexible
Anoptionistoputinplacesmall,flexible,incrementalchangesbasedonregularreviewusinginformationavailableatthetime,ratherthanrelyingonone-off,large-scaletreatments.Thisleavesscopefordecisionstobereviewedinthefutureasimprovedinformationbecomesavailable.Thisapproachalsoreducesthepotentialforunnecessaryadaptation.
5. don’t go it alone
ClimatechangeaffectsallLocalGovernments,withsimilarchangesoftenexperiencedattheregionalscale.Manyrisksandadaptationmeasureswillbemoreeffective,andlesscostlyifanintergovernmentalapproachistakentoaccessresourcesandfunding.Workingwithindustrybodies,andscientistsisalsopartofthecooperativepicture.
�. Include in decisions now
Allnewinfrastructurewithalifeof10+yearsshouldtakeclimatechangerisksintoaccountnowforfunction,designandlocation.
7. Track change
Climatechangeinformationandadaptationmeasuresisafieldthatisnewbutrapidlychanging–especiallyforLocalGovernment.Examplesof‘bestpractice’adaptations–bothnationallyandinternationally,andupdatedtechnicalinformationisquicklybecomingavailable.Alinkednetworktolearnfromotherswillbeanimportanttool.
�. Think long term
Manyadaptationswillrequireplanningandimplementingoverthelongterm–whichwillextendwellbeyondthe4yearelectoralcycle.
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Workshop resourcesA. Overall process
1. Building Councillor support
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What does climate change mean for our local area?
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...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
how will climate change impact Council’s core business?
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What are community expectations?
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Our next step
...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
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�. Starting the process
Build Councillor support
lead
Coordinate
Assess the risks
review the gaps
Adaptation
partners
Community
B. Assessing the risk and developing an action plan
Select a specific climate change risk to work through this section. Refer to the relevant climate change elements for suggestions.
1. Identify the risks
• determine the scope ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
• Establish the process ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
• Establish the risk criteria .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
�. prioritising the risk
likelihood
Consequences
Minimal Low Moderate Major Catastrophic
Almost Certain Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme
likely Low Medium High High Extreme
possible Low Medium Medium High High
unlikely Low Low Medium Medium Medium
rare Low Low Low Low Medium
�. Select adaptation measures
Adaptation measures response/actions
Informed and aware
Making plans
Improving design
diversifying, spreading the risk
location, location, location
�. Action plan
Internalintegration:acknowledgingthelinks
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plan + development
Corporate +Community Services
Infrastructure Environment
AdApTATION MEASurE: ......................................................................
5. Action plan for a sample adaptation measure
Adaptation Measure
Actions external partners Role Lead in Council
resources
Queensland and Australian Government Climate Change resources
CASE STUDY
the Australian Greenhouse office (AGo)
Thisisthekeyagencyongreenhousematters,responsibleforcoordinatingAustralianclimatechangepolicy,andfordeliveringthemajorityofprogramsundertheAustralianGovernment’sclimatechangestrategy.
TheAGOoffersfundingandarangeofotherservicestosupportLocalGovernment,includingtheNationalAdaptationFrameworkforclimatechange.Theframeworkincludesactionstoassistthemostvulnerablesectorsandregions,suchasagriculture,biodiversity,fisheries,forestry,settlementsandinfrastructure,coastal,waterresources,tourismandhealthtoadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.Itsaimistohelpplanningbodies,farmers,businessesandLocalGovernmenttounderstandbettertheimpactsofclimatechangeandtodevelopresponses.
ThenewAustralianCentreforClimateChangeAdaptationwillcommissionscientificworktodeveloptangibleresponsestoclimatechange.Examplesofactivitiesthatcouldbefundedinclude:
• protectingcoastalinfrastructurefromlikelychangesinstormsurge
• thedesignofaheatwavewarningsystemandwaystomodifyfacilitiestocaterforthosemostatrisk(theelderly);
• planforexpandingtheuseoffeedlotsbyfarmerstoreducetheexposureoftheirvaluablestocktovariationinpastureavailabilityandheatstress;and
• identifyingareasinnationalparksthatwillprovidethebestareasforrecolonisationofplantsandanimalsthathavebeendisplacedbyclimaticchange.
TheAGOalsomanagesLocalGreenhouseAction;aninitiativewhichassistsLocalGovernment,communitiesandindividualhouseholdsreducetheirgreenhousegasemissions.
www.greenhouse.gov.au
Queensland Government
TheStateGovernmenthasformedtheQueenslandClimateChangeCentreofExcellence(QCCCE).LaunchedinMarch2007,QCCCEprovidesscienceandpolicyadviceonclimatevariability,climatechangemodellingandclimatechangeimpactsonthecommunity,economyandenvironment.
TheQCCCEhasrecentlyfinalisedtheClimateSmartAdaptation2007-12:anactionplanformanagingtheimpactsofclimatechange.Itincludes62actions,focusingonanumberofprioritysectors:waterplanningandservices;agriculture;humansettlements;naturalenvironmentandlandscapes;emergencyservicesandhumanhealth;tourism,businessandindustry;andfinanceandinsurance.
TheplanalsoincludesactionstobetterunderstandthelikelyimpactsofclimatechangeonQueensland’sregionsandsectors.Thisincludespreparingregional-scaleclimatechangeprojectionsforpriorityareas,tooffermorelocalisedinformationforplanninganddecision-making.
TheCentrewillhelpdeveloplocallyrelevantresponsesbyworkingonaregionalbasiswithLocalGovernments,asitrecognisestheirimportantroleinmanagingtheimpactsofclimatechange‘ontheground’.
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Thereferencesandresourcesreferredtobelowarethosereferredtointhisguide,andotherclimatechangeresourcesconsideredtobeusefulforLocalGovernmentsinQueenslandthataredevelopingclimatechangeresponses.
General
IPCC2001.ClimateChange2001:SynthesisReport.ContributionofWorkingGroupsI,II,andIIItotheThirdAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.IPCC
Climate Change Science
Cai,W.,S.Crimp,R.Jones,K.L.McInnes,P.J.Durack,R.Cechet,J.Bathols,andS.Wilkinson,2005.ClimatechangeinQueenslandunderenhancedgreenhouseconditions:Report,2004-2005.CSIROMarineandAtmosphericResearchreportfortheQueenslandGovernment.www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/ClimateChanges/pub/CSIRO2005.html#end
CSIRO,2001.ClimatechangeprojectionsforAustralia.Technicalreport,CSIROAustralia.www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/projections2001.pdf
IPCC,2007.ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasis.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheFourthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange-SummaryforPolicymakers.www.ipcc.ch/WG1_SPM_17Apr07.pdf
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
QueenslandDepartmentofNaturalResources&Mines,2005.ClimateSmartAdaptation–APublicDiscussionPaper.www.nrw.qld.gov.au/science/pdf/climate_smart_adaptation.pdf
Preston,B.L.andJones,R.N.,2006.ClimateChangeImpactsonAustraliaandtheBenefitsofEarlyActiontoReduceGlobalGreenhouseGasEmissions-AconsultancyreportfortheAustralianBusinessRoundtableonClimateChange.CSIRO.www.csiro.au/files/files/p6fy.pdf
QueenslandDepartmentofNaturalResources&Mines,2004.QueenslandClimateChangeandCommunityVulnerabilitytoTropicalCyclones.ProjectSynthesisReport–August2004.www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/ClimateChanges/pub/OceanHazardsSynthesis.html
Pittock,B.,2003.ClimateChange–AnAustralianGuidetotheScienceandPotentialofImpacts.DepartmentfortheEnvironmentandHeritage,AustralianGreenhouseOffice.www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/guide/index.html
AllenConsultingGroup,2005.Climatechangeriskandvulnerability:promotinganefficientadaptationresponseinAustralia.DepartmentfortheEnvironmentandHeritage,AustralianGreenhouseOffice.www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/risk-vulnerability.html
IPCC,2007.ClimateChange2007:Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerability.ContributionofWorkingGroupIItotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeFourthAssessmentReport-SummaryforPolicymakers.www.ipcc.ch/SPM13apr07.pdf
Willows,R.andConnell,R.(eds.),2003.Climateadaptation:Risk,uncertaintyanddecision-making,UKCIPTechnicalReport,Oxford.
Economic Costs of Climate Change
Stern,Nicholas,2006.TheEconomicsofClimateChange.TheSternReview.CabinetOffice-HMTreasury.www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm Climate Change & risk Management
AustralianGreenhouseOffice,2006.ClimateChangeImpacts&RiskManagement-AGuideforBusinessandGovernment.PreparedfortheAustralianGreenhouseOffice,DepartmentofEnvironmentandHeritageby:BroadleafCapitalInternationalMarsdenJacobAssociates.www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/risk-management.html
StandardsAustralia,2004.AS/NZS4360:2004RiskManagement.StandardsAustralia,2004.HandbookHB436RiskManagement.
Climate Change Adaptation & local Government
ThefollowingweblinksprovideaccesstoinformationregardingkeyinitiativesaroundAustraliaseekingtoidentifyandrespondtoclimatechangeimpactsfacingLocalGovernments;
New South Waleswww.lgsa.org.au/www/html/253-climate-change.asp
Sydney Coastal Councils Groupwww.sydneycoastalCouncils.com.au/documents/ClimateChangeForum-SummaryReport.pdf
Western port Greenhouse Alliancewww.casey.vic.gov.au/climatechangeinwesternport/
Tasmaniawww.lgat.tas.gov.au/site/page.cfm?u=540
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AppendixA Queensland climate projections and potential impactsThefollowingdetailsrelatetoprojectionsoffutureQueenslandclimatepreparedfortheQueenslandGovernmentbyCSIRO(Caietal.2005).
Temperature projections
AccordingtotheCSIROprojections,thetrendtowardshighertemperatureswillaccelerate,withprojectionsshowingincreasesinaveragetemperaturesofbetween0.3°Cand2°Cby2030andbetween0.9°Cand6.4°Cby2070,withinlandareastendingtowarmmorerapidlythancoastalareas(seeFigureA-1).Aswithglobaltemperatureincreases,futuretemperaturerisesinQueensland,includingthenumberofdaysabove35°C,canbeexpectedtobeinthemidtoupperendoftheranges,projectedfor2030,andthemid-rangesfor2070,duetocontinuingstronggrowthinglobalemissions.
2.30.4
2.10.3
1.80.4
1.80.2
1.60.2
1.30.2
ANN DJF MAM JJA SON
7.21.1
6.40.9
5.61.1
5.60.7
4.80.7
4.00.7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
ANN DJF MAM JJA
2030
Temperature Change (oC) Temperature Change (oC)
2070
SON
Figure A-1 Average annual and seasonal temperature change (°C) for 2030 and 2070 relative to 1990. The coloured bars show ranges of change for areas with corresponding colours in the maps. ANN is annual temperature change; DJF is summer (December-February); MAM is autumn (March-May); JJA is winter (June-August) and SON is spring (September-November).
50
rainfall projections
Thereisgreateruncertaintywithprojectionsofrainfallthanoftemperature,withnotallmodelsagreeingonwhetherrainfallislikelytoincreaseordecrease.Hence,inFigureA-2,therangesincludenegative(declines)andpositive(increases)values.Forexample,averageannualrainfallcouldbeanythingbetweenadeclineof13%andanincreaseof7%abovethe1990saverageby2030forthelargeareaofpaleyellow.Thegreyareasonthesamemapindicaterainfallcouldbebetween7%belowand7%above1990levelsby2030.Onlytheredareasshowallmodelsagreeonadeclineinrainfall(ofupto20%by2030).Thereisleastcertaintyregardingthesummerrainfall(increaseordecreaseofupto13%by2030and40%by2070)asindicatedbythelargeareasofgrey.Thereismuchgreatercertaintyforspring,withlargeareasofredindicatingadeclineofupto20%by2030.
ANN DJF MAM JJA SON
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Rainfall Change(%)
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Rainfall Change(%)
13-13
7-7
7-26
0-20
7-20
13-20
7-13
13-7
40-40
20-20
20-80
0-60
20-60
40-60
20-40
40-20
ANN DJF MAM JJA SON
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Rainfall Change (oC)
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Rainfall Change (oC)
2030 2070
Figure A-2 Rainfall projections for Queensland. Average annual and seasonal rainfall change (% change) for 2030 and 2070 relative to 1990. The coloured bars show the range of possible change for areas with corresponding colours in the maps. ANN is annual rainfall change; DJF is summer (December-February); MAM is autumn (March-May); JJA is winter (June-August) and SON is spring (September-November).
Evaporation
Annualpotentialevaporationisprojectedtoincreasebyupto13%by2030andupto40%by2070(FigureA3)overlargeareasoftheState.Potentialevaporationistheamountofwaterthatwouldevaporatefromawetsurfaceinanygivenclimate.Actualevaporationistheamountofwaterthatactuallyevaporatesfromasurfaceandwillusuallybelessthanpotentialevaporation.Itcouldbezeroifthereisnowateravailabletoevaporate.
Evapotranspiration(ET)isthetransferofwaterfromthelandscapetotheatmosphere,acombinationofevaporationfromsoilandplanttranspiration.EvapotranspirationisacriticalcomponentofthewatercycleinAustralia,withover90%ofrainfallreturnedtotheatmospherethroughevapotranspiration.
51
ANN DJF MAM JJA SON
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Evaporation (%)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Evaporation (%)
ANN DJF MAM JJA SON
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Evaporation (%)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Evaporation (%)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Evaporation (oC)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Evaporation (oC)
2030 2070
SONANN DJF MAM JJA
1
1
2
2
0
1
8
13
13
16
16
21
2
2
4
4
0
2
24
40
40
48
48
64
Figure A-3 Average annual and seasonal potential evaporation change (°C) for 2030 and 2070 relative to 1990. The coloured bars show the range of possible change for areas with corresponding colours in the maps.
Evaporationchangesneedtobeconsideredwithrainfallchangestobetterunderstandsoilmoisture,streamflowchangesandplantgrowth.ThelargechangesinpotentialevaporationoverCapeYorkPeninsulainsummerandautumnarerelativetoalowerbasecomparedwithotherpartsoftheState,andsoinabsolutetermsarelessdramaticthentheyappearinFigureA-3.
Extreme events
TheAustraliandroughtin2002isconsideredoneoftheworstonrecord,becauseofthecombinationofrainfalldeficitstogetherwithhightemperaturesandevaporation.Withtheprojectedincreaseintemperature,futuredroughtscouldalsobemoresevere.MorefrequentElNiñosarealsoexpected,indicatingmoredryspellsforeasternandsouthernAustralia.
Tropicalcyclonesareprojectedtobecomemoreintense,witha20-30%increaseinmaximumprecipitationratesanda5-10%increaseinmaximumwindspeedby2050.Theareaoftropicalcycloneformationisnotexpectedtochange.ThenumbersoftropicalcyclonesintheAustralianregionisstronglyinfluencedbyENSO,sothenumberofcyclonesinfuturewilldependonhowclimatechangeaffectsENSO.Recentworkindicatesthattropicalcyclonenumbersarelikelytodecreasebyabout13%by2030and30%by2070.TheaverageprojectedincreaseinstormsurgefortheeastcoastofQueenslandisabout0.5m,althoughthechangeatparticularlocationsdependsonotherfactorsincludingtheshapeofthecoast.
Thenumberofintenserainfalleventsisprojectedtoincrease,eveninareaswhereadeclineinaveragerainfallisprojected.Returnperiodsoflargereventsisexpectedtodecrease,andthenumberofsmallerrainfalleventsisexpectedtodecrease.Forexamplea1-in-40yeareventcouldbecomea1-in-15yearevent.
Theobservedtrendsinextremetemperaturesareprojectedtocontinue.TheprojectedchangesinthenumberofextremehotdaysforanumberofQueenslandcentresaresummarisedelsewhereinthisGuide.
Bushfireweatherandfire-dangerisexpectedtoincreasewiththeincreasesintemperatureanddrierconditions.Withadoublingofcarbondioxideconcentrationsintheatmosphere,thenumberofdaysofveryhighandextremefiredangerincreases,duelargelytothehighertemperatures.However,theactualbushfiresriskalsodependsonfuelload,whichcouldbelessindrierconditions.
5�
potential Queensland climate change impacts over a range of possible temperature increases
In2006,CSIROreviewedthestudiesthathavesoughttoestimatethemagnitudeofclimatechangeimpactoverarangeof21stcenturytemperaturechangesfrom~1°Cupto~5+°C(roughlytheupperestimateforprojected21stcenturyglobalmeantemperaturechange)(Preston&Jones2006).Theseestimateswillimproveasunderstandingicreasesregardingtheprocessesbywhichclimatechangeinfluencesthefunctioningofsystems,butprovideanindicativesnapshotofsomeoftheimpactsthatcouldbeexperiencedacrossQueenslandforarangeofpossibletemperatureincreases.
Temperature Increase (ºC)
public health Settlements & Infrastructure Ecosystems
<1 4–12moredeathsperannumin65-yearagegroupinNtropicalcities
Noincreaseinpopulationatriskofdengue
3%decreasesinthermalefficiencyofelectricitytransmissioninfrastructure
PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases2–5%
BleachinganddamagetotheGreatBarrierReefequivalentto1998upto50%ofyears
60%oftheGreatBarrierReefisregularlybleached
50%decreaseinhabitatforvertebratesinnorthernAustraliatropics
63%decreaseinGoldenBowerbirdhabitatinNAustralia
50%decreaseinmontanetropicalrainforestareainNAustralia
25%ofcorehabitatlostforEucalyptus
1-� Southwardspreadofmalariareceptivezones
Populationatriskofdengueincreasesfrom0.17millionto0.75-1.6million
10%increaseindiarrhoealdiseasesamongAboriginalchildrenincentralAustralia
100%increaseinnumberofpeopleexposedtoflooding
IncreasedinfluxofrefugeesfromPacificIslands
100yearstormsurgeheightaroundCairnsincreases22%;areafloodeddoubles
PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases4–10%
Upto58–81%oftheGreatBarrierReefisbleachedeveryyear
Hardcoralreefcommunitiesarewidelyreplacedbyalgalcommunities
90%decreaseincorehabitatforvertebratesinnorthernAustraliatropics
88%ofbutterflyspecies’corehabitatdecreases
�-� Furthersouthwardspreadofmalariareceptivezones
Temperaturerelatedmortalityamongpeople65+yearsinAustraliancapitalcitiesincreasesby89–123%
SouthwardexpansionofdenguetransmissionzoneasfarasBrisbane
17%increaseinroadmaintenancecostsovermostofAustralia
PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases3-15%
5–10%increaseintropicalcyclonewindspeeds
20–30%increaseintropicalcyclonerainfall
10%increaseinforestfiredangerindexinN,SW,andWAustralia
97%oftheGreatBarrierReefisbleachedeveryyear
92%ofbutterflyspecies’corehabitatdecreases
98%decreaseinGoldenBowerbirdhabitatinNAustralia
�-� Temperaturerelatedmortalityamongpeople65+yearsinAustraliancapitalcitiesincreasesby144–200%
PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases5–20%
Catastrophicmortalityofcoralspeciesannually
95%decreaseindistributionofGreatBarrierReefspecies
65%lossofGreatBarrierReefspeciesintheCairnsregion
55%ofcorehabitatlostforEucalyptus
25–50%decreasein“generic”timberyieldinNQueenslandandTopEnd
�-5 PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases9–25%
>5 PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases10–25%
90–100%ofcorehabitatlostformostAustralianvertebrates
(adaptedfromPreston&Jones2006)
5�
Possible consequence assessment criteria for a climate change risk assessment conducted across the full spectrum of Council interests (adapted from AGO 2006)
Rating Public Safety Local Economy & Growth
Community & Lifestyle
Environment & Sustainability
Public Administration - Financial &/or Legal Liabilities
Minimal Appearance of a threat but no actual harm
Minor shortfall relative to current forecasts
There would be minor areas in which the region was unable to maintain its current services
No environmental damage
There would be minor instances of public administration being under more than usual stress but it could be managed,eg <$10 KNo legal action
Low Serious near misses or minor injuries
Individually significant but isolated areas of reduction in economic performance relative to current forecasts
Isolated but noticeable examples of decline in services
Minor instances of environmental damage that could be reversed
Isolated instances of public administration being under severe pressureeg >$10K - <$100KLitigation / fines to $100KMinor delays in statutory requirements
Moderate Small numbers of injuries
Significant general reduction in economic performance relative to current forecasts
General appreciable decline in services
Isolated but significant instances of environmental damage that might be reversed with intensive efforts
Public administration would be under severe pressure on several frontseg >$100 K - <$1 MLitigation / fines to $1MModerate delays to statutory requirements
Major Isolated instances of serious injuries or loss of lives
Regional stagnation such that businesses are unable to thrive and employment does not keep pace with population growth
Severe and widespread decline in services and quality of life within the community
Severe loss of environmental amenity and a danger of continuing environmental damage
Public administration would struggle to remain effective and would be seen to be in danger of failing completelyeg >$1 M - <$20 MLitigation / fines to $20MMajor delays to statutory requirements
Catastrophic Large numbers of serious injuries or loss of lives
Regional decline leading to widespread business failure, loss of employment and hardship
The region would be seen as very unattractive, moribund and unable to support its community
Major widespread loss of environmental amenity and progressive irrecoverable environmental damage
Public administration would fall into decay and cease to be effectiveeg >$20 MLitigation / fines over $20MUnable to meet statutory requirements
Possible consequence assessment criteria for a climate change risk assessment conducted across the engineering services/infrastructure business activities of a Council.
Rating Public Safety Service Quality Service Delivery Cost
Minimal Appearance of a threat but no actual harm
Minor deficiencies in principle that would pass without comment
Minor technical shortcomings in service delivery would attract no attention
Minor cost impact, requiring occasional additional maintenance
Low Serious near misses or minor injuries
Services would be regarded as satisfactory by the general public but personnel would be aware of deficiencies
There would be isolated instances of service delivery failing to meet acceptable standards to a limited extent
Further routine maintenance may be required involving low level additional cost
Moderate Small numbers of injuries
Services would be regarded as barely satisfactory by the general public and the organisation’s personnel
There would be isolated but important instances of services being poorly targeted or delivered late
Relatively significant additional maintenance required, or some infrastructure destruction
Major Isolated instances of serious injuries or loss of lives
The general public would regard the organisation’s services as unsatisfactory
There would be isolated instances of services being incorrectly targeted, delivered late or not delivered at all
Infrastructure failure or destruction causing major cost impact
Catastrophic Large numbers of serious injuries or loss of lives
Services would fall well below acceptable standards and this would be clear to all
Services would be incorrectly targeted, delivered late or not at all in a large number of cases
Infrastructure failure or destruction causing very significant cost impact
Likelihood Scale (from AGO 2006)
Rating Recurrent Risks Single Events
Almost certain Could occur several times per year More likely than not • Probability greater than 50%
Likely May arise about once per year As likely as not • 50/50 chance
Possible May arise once in ten years Less likely than not but still appreciable • Probability less than 50% but still quite high
Unlikely May arise once in ten years to 25 years Unlikely but not negligible • Probability low but noticeably greater than zero
Rare Unlikely during the next 25 years Negligible • Probability very small, close to zero
AppendixB risk assessment criteria
5�
Glossary
Adaptation-Actionsinresponsetoactualorprojectedclimatechangeandimpactsthatleadtoareductioninrisksorarealisationofbenefits.
Adaptive capacity -Thecapacityofanorganisationorsystemtomoderatetherisksofclimatechange,ortorealisebenefits,throughchangesinitscharacteristicsorbehaviour.Adaptivecapacitycanbeaninherentpropertyoritcouldhavebeendevelopedasaresultofpreviouspolicy,planningordesigndecisionsoftheorganisation.
Climate - Thecompositeofsurfaceweatherconditionssuchastemperature,rainfall,atmosphericpressure,humidity,sunshineandwinds,averagedoveraperiodoftimerangingfrommonthstothousandsofyears.
Climate change -Anychangeinclimateovertime,whetherduetonaturalvariabilityorasaresultofhumanactivity.
Climate impacts -Consequencesofclimatechangeonnaturalandhumansystems.
Climate scenario -Aplausiblebutoftensimplifieddescriptionofapossiblefuturestateoftheclimate.Aclimatescenarioshouldnotbeviewedasapredictionofthefutureclimate.Rather,itprovidesameansofunderstandingthepotentialimpactsofclimatechange,andidentifyingthepotentialrisksandopportunitiestoanorganisationcreatedbyanuncertainfutureclimate.
Climate projection -Aprojectionoftheresponseoftheclimatesystemtoscenariosofgreenhousegasemissionsoratmosphericconcentrationsofgreenhousegases.Climateprojectionsareoftenbaseduponsimulationsoftheclimatesystembycomputerbasedmathematicalmodels.
exposure -Thenatureanddegreetowhichasystemisexposedtosignificantclimaticvariations.
Heat wave - Periodoftimeofunusuallyhighheatthataffectsthepopulation.
Resilience -Amountofchangeasystemcanundergowithoutchangingstate.
Risk -Thepossibilityofsomethinghappeningthatwillhaveanimpactonobjectives.Ariskisoftenspecifiedintermsofaneventorcircumstanceandtheconsequencesthatmayflowfromit.Riskismeasuredintermsofacombinationoftheconsequencesofaneventandtheirlikelihoods.Riskmayhaveapositiveornegativeimpact.
Risk assessment - Theoverallprocessofidentifyinghazardsandconsequences,characterisedintermsoftheirprobabilityandmagnitude,andtheirsignificanceassessed.
Risk identification - Theprocessofdeterminingwhat,where,when,whyandhowsomethingcouldhappen.
Sensitivity -Thedegreetowhichasystemisaffected,eitheradverselyorbeneficially,byclimaterelatedvariablesincludingmeans,extremesandvariability.
vulnerability -Theextenttowhichasystemororganisationcancopewiththenegativeimpactsofclimatechange,variabilityandextremes.Vulnerabilityisafunctionofthecharacter,magnitude,andrateofclimatevariationtowhichasystemisexposed,itssensitivity,anditsadaptivecapacity.
Sources:IPCC(2001),UKCIP(2003),AGO(2006)
55
Abbreviations
Co2 CarbonDioxide
CRC CooperativeResearchCentre
CSIRo CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation
DLGPSR DepartmentofLocalGovernment,Planning,SportandRecreation
DnRW DepartmentofNaturalResourcesandWater
ePA EnvironmentProtectionAgency
LGAQ LocalGovernmentAssociationofQueensland
nRM NaturalResourceManagement
QDnRM QueenslandDepartmentofNaturalResourcesandMines(nowNaturalResourcesandWater)
QPWS QueenslandParksandWildlifeService
RoC RegionalOrganisationofCouncils
uDIA UrbanDevelopmentInstituteofAustralia
WH&S WorkplaceHealthandSafety
Advisory Group Members (providedassistanceandinputtodevelopingthisGuide)
AndrewBarger,QueenslandResourcesCouncil
PaulBidwell,CommerceQueensland
CrRayByrnes,Mayor,EachamShireCouncil
AlisonCurtis,ToowoombaCityCouncil
PeterNapier,IpswichCityCouncil
StefaniePidcock,AustralianGreenhouseOffice
VanessaSwinson,BrisbaneCityCouncil
JoanneHamer,BrisbaneCityCouncil
EvanThomas,GoldCoastCityCouncil
PhilWoods,InsuranceAustraliaGroup
PaulWuth,BurdekinShireCouncil
AndrewZuch,QldClimateChangeCentreofExcellence