Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change

in the Pacific Northwest

Dave Peterson

U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station

Adaptation strategies for natural resource management?

Now available….

US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4 (SAP 4.4)

Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources

National ForestsNational ParksNational Wildlife RefugesWild and Scenic RiversNational EstuariesMarine Protected Areas

http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-4/final-report

Vulnerability Tendency of an

ecosystem to experience harm from a stressor as a result of being exposed to stress, sensitivity to stress, and inability to cope with and recover from the impact.

• Changes in species distribution and abundance

• Changes in ecological processes

• Changes in functional relationships

Pinyon-juniper, New Mexico

2002

2004

Adaptation

Adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to climate change, in order to minimize potential negative effects.

• Supports sustainability of ecosystem services

• A long-term, experimental management approach

• Adaptive management is a component of adaptation

Adaptation Approaches

Depend on timing and intention…

No active adaptation

Planned management responses

Anticipation of climate change

Adaptation Approach 1

No active adaptation

• React to a climate-driven event without foresight or planning, OR

• Make a conscious decision not to manage for climate change after consideration of the resulting vulnerabilities and impacts.

Adaptation Approach 2

Planned management responses

• Adjust management during or after a climatic event.

• Climate-change effects are uncertain, OR insufficient resources are available to prepare for events, OR post-disturbance action is the best choice from a scientific and organizational perspective.

Adaptation Approach 3

Anticipation of climate change

• Uses information about changing ecosystems and disturbance regimes to identify proactive management strategies.

• More viable as more scientific information becomes available.

• Allows for adjustment of management targets.

• Emissions scenarios

• Global Climate Models (GCMs)

• Downscaling methods

• Effects models

• Interactions among multiple stressors

• Scale of effects assessment vs. management actions

Sources of uncertainty

• Usually greater confidence in broader scale projections

• Greater confidence in mid-century projections than late-century

• Greater confidence in projections of some climate variables than others (i.e., temperature vs. precipitation)

• Evaluate the evidence and judge the confidence in specific projected impacts for specific areas – look for convergence among effects models

Uncertainty ≠ ignorance

Address climate change as a risk Address adaptation as risk

management• Uncertainty and risk management are

common in natural resource management

• But climate change poses new risk management challenges

Non-analog conditions Rapid rate of change Evolving scientific understanding Many interactions

A framework for addressing uncertainty

• Establish a science-management partnership

• Identify scenarios for future conditions• Evaluate vulnerability and risk• Make robust decisions• Monitor, evaluate, and review

Establish a science-management partnership

• Develop a cadre of scientists and managers with multiple areas of expertise

• Focus on a consensus range of issues and resource disciplines

• Work together towards final products and outcomes

Identify scenarios for future climate and potential effects

• Identify a range of climate and effects projections for your area (from multiple models)

• Focus on the time horizon of the decision, but also consider longer term

• Consider observed trends and variability

Consider the effects of extreme climate

Extremes matter for fire

Standard deviation

1 in 40 yr high range

Fire frequency, extent, and severity may be affected by climate change, altering the mean and variability of fire regime properties.

A shift in distribution of fire regime properties has a larger relative effect at the extremes than near the mean.

A shift of 1 standard deviation changes a 1 in 40 yr event to a 1 in 6 yr event

Evaluate vulnerability and risks

• Start with existing conditions and stressors (sensitivity)

• Consider observed variability and trends along with projected trends (exposure)

• Estimate potential for different resources to respond favorably to an altered climate (adaptive capacity)

Make robust decisions

• Strive for decisions that can accomplish objectives across a range of climate and effect projections

• Prioritize “no regrets” actions and projects with high probability of success/impact

• “Robustness” as a criterion for • Identifying options • Evaluating tradeoffs among options• Final decision

• Truly implement adaptive management• Environmental Management System framework:

plan, act, monitor, adjust

Monitor, evaluate, and review

Reducing Climate Change Risk through Adaptation

––––

A Strategic Approach

Resistance

Resilience

Response

Realignment

The adaptation strategies

Create/Increase Resistance to Change

Isolate, protect, and prepare resources for direct & indirect effects of climate

Management examples: Thinning; Fire breaks; Fuels mgmt; Age-class adjustments; Type conversions; Fighting insects / disease; Reducing air pollution

Increasing over time:• Wildfire• Invasions by exotic species• Insect & disease • Site conversions

Create Resilience to ongoing changesand climate-related disturbances

Reduce and minimize stress within habitats

Mgmt Examples

Thin standsIncrese buffersIncrease TES pop. sizesStock seed banksUse redundancyIncrease heterogeneity

Respond to Climate Influences

• Follow climate change– Use climate projections to

plan vegetation options– Where will species move?

Options for Management

• Anticipate / plan for risks (e.g., longer summers, lower snowpack, regular droughts)

• Learn from experiments (AM)

• Promote diverse landscapes

Realign conditions to current dynamics

Forest density & structure

DWP diversions began

For systems out of the range of natural variability – a “restoration” option

Adaptation example #1

Increase landscape diversity

Increase resilience at large scales-- Treatments and spatial configurations

that minimize loss of large number of structural and functional groups

Increase size of mgmt. units -- Much larger treatments and

age/structural classes

Increase connectivity

Adaptation example #2

Maintain biological diversity

Experiment with mixed species, mixed genotypes

Modify genetic guidelines

Identify species, populations, and communities that are sensitive to increased disturbance

Adaptation example #3

Plan for post-disturbance management

Treat fire and other ecological disturbance as normal, periodic occurrences

Incorporate fire management and other disturbance options in land management considerations

Adaptation example #4

Implement early detection / rapid response

Eliminate or control exotic species

Monitor post-disturbance conditions, reduce fire-enhancing species (e.g., cheatgrass)

Adaptation example #5

Manage for realistic outcomes

Identify key thresholds for species and functions

Determine which thresholds will be exceeded

Prioritize projects with high probability of success; abandon hopeless causes

Identify species and vegetation structures tolerant of increased disturbance

Critical Threshold

Time

Temperature Increase

Climatic VariabilityCli

mat

e

Adaptation example #6

Incorporate climate change in restoration

Reduce emphasis on historical references

Reduce use of guidelines based on static relationships (e.g., plant associations)

Develop performance standards that consider climate change in restoration trajectories

Where is adaptation being implemented?

California: Inyo NF, Tahoe NF, Devils Postpile NM, Sequoia-Kings Canyon NP

Colorado: Arapahoe-Roosevelt NF, Routt NF, Rocky Mountain NP

Idaho: Idaho Panhandle NF

Montana: Kootenai NF

New Mexico: Carson NF, Santa Fe NF

North Carolina: Uwharrie NF

Oregon: Willamette NF

Washington: Olympic NF, Okanogan-Wenatchee NF, Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie NF, Olympic NP, North Cascades NP, Mt. Rainier NP

Wisconsin: Chequamegon-Nicolet NF

Wyoming: Shoshone NF

U.S. Forest Service National Roadmap for Climate Change (2010)

Agency capacityEducate employeesDesignate climate change coordinatorsDevelop program guidance and training

Partnerships and educationIntegrate science and managementDevelop partnerships and alliances

AdaptationAssess vulnerabilitySet prioritiesMonitor change

Mitigation and sustainable consumptionAssess and manage carbonReduce environmental footprint

Your turn!