ADAPTAssessment & Design for Adaptation:

a Prototype Tool

Ian Noble, World Bankinoble@worldbank.org

&

Fareeha Y. Iqbal (Consultant, World Bank)fiqbal1@worldbank.org

What is it? A screening & design tool

Who is it for? Project developers, field staff, multilateral orgs. and NGOs

What does it do?

• Provides a quick, initial check of potential issues that might arise in project design or implementation

• Guides project developers to appropriate knowledge and experience

• Raises awareness on the risks that climate change poses to development

It is not a community level decision making tool !

What do project managers need to know?

• issues climate change might pose for their projects

• where to access more specific information about these

• some suggestions on how the project could be made more robust in the face of expected changes in climate

What do they often get?

• vague answers that emphasize “uncertainties”

• asked to provide highly quantitative data so that models can be run to compute answers for them – models usually still under development, though…

• asked to come back in a year or two when adaptation pilot project is complete and results have started to be processed…

What ADAPT offers• project screening based on existing knowledge

• expert system that identifies key activities that might be sensitive to climate variability and change

• qualitative climate change data bases combining models and current trends

• qualitative assessment of risks and opportunities

• pointers to appropriate literature, tools, projects and experts

Levels of Advice Provided

adaptation issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended

some concerns, which should be checked

not enough known to assess

no adaptation issues foreseen

positive action for adaptation

A framework for a screening & designtool

User Guidance on risk

avoidance and adaptation

options

Additional tools

Document database

Project database Experts

Risk elements

&Location

Direction of climate change

(increase, no change,

decrease, unknown)

Activities

Climate sensitivi

ty

Climate paramete

r

(eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc)

Climate sensitivity for an

activity

Climate paramet

erLo

cati

on

Projected direction of

climate change

Technically complex : Multiple models – changing data bases

What project managers need to know

A framework for a screening & designtoolbased on expert advice

User Guidance on risk

avoidance and adaptation

options

Additional tools

Document database

Project database Experts

Risk elements

&Location

Direction of climate change

(increase, no change,

decrease, unknown)

Activities

Climate sensitivi

ty

Climate paramete

r

(eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc)

Climate sensitivity for an

activity

Climate paramet

erLo

cati

on

Projected direction of

climate change

Selected scenarios

and current trends

Expert assessment of

relevant activitiesExpert

assess

ment of

sensit

ivities

A framework for a screening & design tool

User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation

options

What does the user see?

Additional tools

Document database

Project database Experts

Risk elements

&Location

Direction of climate change

(increase, no change, decrease, unknown)

Activities

Climate sensitivi

ty

Climate paramete

r

(eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc)

Climate sensitivity for an

activity

Climate paramet

erLo

cati

on

Projected direction of

climate change

Relevant Relevant guidance guidance to …to …

gdfsgfd

gdfsgfd

gdfsgfd

gdfsgfd

Leading to …

A series of questions

about their

project

Assessm

en

t &

Desig

n f

or

Clim

ate

C

han

ge –

a P

roto

typ

e T

ool

--

AD

AP

T

Help about the question and about

each option

Ability to change

ones mind

• Printable outputs

• Database of relevant local experts

• Can be periodically updated

• Simple structure

Simple Expert System

Simple Expert System