AD and Multiplier
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Transcript of AD and Multiplier
AD and The Multiplier
Dr. Mrutyunjay Dash
Aggregate Demand
The aggregate demand implies effective demand which equals actual expenditure. The aggregate effective demand means the aggregate expenditure made by the society per unit time, usually, one year.
It has two components:
I) aggregate demand for consumer goods
II) aggregate demand for capital goods
Thus AD=C+I
Consumption Expenditure
• Exogenous factors affecting consumption:– Tax rates
– Incomes – short term and expected income over lifetime
– Wage increases
– Credit
– Interest rates– Wealth
• Property
• Shares
• Savings
• Bonds
The Wealth Effect•Wealth effect – Financial and Physical AssetsArise in stock market value prompts people reorient their consumption spending.
Increased consumption
Less saving
More financial assets.
The International Effect
• International effect – as the price level falls net exports will rise.
Investment Expenditure• Spending on:
– Machinery
– Equipment
– Buildings
– Infrastructure
• Influenced by:
– Expected rates of return
– Interest rates
– Expectations of future sales
– Expectations of future inflation rates
The Interest Rate Effect
• The interest rate effect works as follows:
a decrease in the price level increase of real cash
banks have more money to lend interest rates fall
investment expenditures increase
The International Effect
• The international effect works as follows:
a decrease in the price level in the U.S. the fall in price of U.S. goods relative to
foreign goods U.S. goods become more competitive
internationally U.S. exports rise and U.S. imports fall
Aggregate Demand Schedule:
AD=C+I and C=a+bY where a is a constant showing C when Y =0 and b is the proportion of income consumed, i.e., b=∆C/ ∆Y.
AD=C+I=a+bY+I
DERIVATION OF AD FUNCTION:C=a+bYWhere a is a constant implying C when y=0 and b is the proportion of income consumed.b= ∆C/∆Y AD function:C+I=a+bY+IThe C+I schedule can be constructed on the basis of the following assumptions:C=50+0.5YI=Rs 50 BillionAD function would be C+I=50+0.5Y+50
AD Schedule
Income (Y) C=50+0.5Y I C+I Schedule
0 50 ` 50 100
50 75 50 125
100 100 50 150
150 125 50 175
200 150 50 200
250 175 50 225
The AD Curve
Pricelevel
Real output
Aggregate demand
P1
Y1
Wealth, interest rate, and international effects
Multiplier effect
Ye
P0
Y0
Pricelevel
Real output
P0
Y0
The Multiplier Effect
• Initial changes in expenditures set in motion a process in the economy that amplifies the initial effects.
• Multiplier effect – the amplification of initial changes in expenditures.
The Multiplier Effect
• The multiplier effect works as follows:
An increase in the price level in the U.S. U.S. exports fall and U.S. imports rise
U.S. firms lose sales and cut output U.S. incomes fall
U.S. households buy less U.S. firms cut back again and so on
The Multiplier Effect
• The multiplier effect amplifies the initial wealth, interest rate, and international effects, making the AD curve flatter than it would have been.
Aggregate Supply
• AS: AS refers to the total value of goods and services produced and supplied in an economy per unit of time. AS includes both consumer goods and producer goods.
In the Keynesian theory of income determination aggregate income equals consumption and savings.
Thus AS=C+S
Eqilibrium National Income: Rs 200 billion
If C+S[AS]>C+I[AD], then Firms produce goods and services worth more than required demand.
Over stock – reduction in production- cut in expenses on inputs
If C+S<C+I, Then
AD>AS
Expansion of pdn. Activities-generation of more income in the economy.
The AD Curve and the AE Curve
AE1D
esir
ed E
xpen
ditu
re
045o
AE0
Y2Y1
E2
E1
E0
AE2
Y0
AE = Y
Real National Income [GDP]
[i]. Aggregate expenditure
0 Y2 Y1
Y0
P2
P1
P0
AD
Pri
ce L
evel
E0
E1
E2
Real National Income (GDP)
[ii]. Aggregate Demand
Y0
The relationship between AE and AD curves
At each price level consistency between A. Desired Spending, Total output and Level of income at that output.
Consumption Function
As income increases consumption increases but not proportionately
C=f(Y)
APC [Average Propensity to consume]
It is the fraction of total income spent on consumption.
If C=100+0.75Y
APC=C/Y
MPC [Marginal Propensity to Consume]
Symbolically expressed as MPC (b)= ∆C/ ∆Y.
The range 0<b<1
b is always greater than 0 but less than 1.
Multiplier
• The theory of multiplier states that an original new investment will raise national income by more than the original investment.
• It is defined as the ratio of the change in income to the change in investment.
• Then K= ∆Y/ ∆I. As Y=C+I then ∆Y= ∆C+∆I. • Dividing both sides by ∆Y we get 1= ∆C/∆Y+ ∆I/∆Y.• ∆I/∆Y=1- ∆C/∆Y Or I/ ∆I/∆Y=1/I-MPC • K=1/1-b
1. The mpc through remains constant
2. The government activity concerning taxation is absent
3. There is autonomous investment in the economy.
4. There is no time lag.
Greater the saving co-efficient, greater is the leakage and smaller will be the magnitude of K, since K=1/mps and vice versa.
Leakages:•Debt cancellation•Idle deposits-Adv. Inv. Climate/restrictive credit policy•Liquidity preference•Financial investments :Sellers of shares may not spend the proceeds.•Net ImportsInflation: Investment after excess capicity
b is always greater than 0 but less than 1.If b=0, then K=1Income will increase only by an amount equivalent to an increase in investment
If b=1, then K=∞A small increment in investment will lead to an infinite increase in income.
Higher is the mpc greater will be the magnitude of K.
Higher is the mps lower will be the magnitude of K.
Comparative Static Multiplier:In a comparative static system, given the mpc and single dosage of investment ,the national income will be found to grow exponentially and the growth of income will follow a geometrical progression.
If b= ∆C/∆Y Then investment increases by an amount equal to ∆I, the increments in income will follow the folloeing pattern.
Y1= ∆I
Y2= ∆I +b∆I =(1+b) ∆I
Y3= ∆I +b∆I+ b2∆I=(1+b+b2) ∆IIf b = 0.5 and ∆I=100Here(1+b+b2+…………..+bn-1 forms a geometrical
progression. The sum of all the terms upto infinity can be determined through the expression S=a/1-r where S is the sum of all items of a G.P. upto infinity, a=initial term and r= common ratio.
S=1/1-b∆Y=1/1-b. ∆I
National Income Determination
AS=C+S
C+I
I
200 Income [Rs billion]
Exp
endi
ture
[Rs
billi
on]
200
50
200 Income [Rs billion]200 Income [Rs billion]200
E
C+I
C+I+ ∆I
Y=C+S
C
Income
CO
NS
UM
PT
ION
AN
D IN
VE
ST
ME
NT
Y1 Y2
Remarks of Higgins:The analysis of the Multiplier Theory conferred a new importance and new respectability on public investment policy; it was elevated from the rank of the last line of defence to major offensive strategy.
An increment in investment will generate an income several times more than the investment.
Digging of holes and filling them up.
Relevance of Investment Multiplier in UDCs: The magnitude of investment multiplier varies directly with
the magnitude of the marginal propensity to consume.Dr.V.K.R.V. Rao ReportThe existence of involuntary unemployment
Disguised Unemployment- Requirement of huge investment to relocate/no consideration of unemployment by the mass. Disguised unemployment: More labour force
Limitation : Fuller utilisation of gigantic labour force requires huge investment.Increase in investment leads to inflation.
Inelastic supply curve of output.[Agricultural Pdts(Inelastic). (Increased Inv.-increased demand-increased Price
Fear of over production and decline in prices.[lack of administered price]
Absence of Excess capacity
If idle capital equipment is available in ample measure a small injection of investment will set these idle machines into motion and lead to more output, income.UDCs: Excess capacity in terms of capital is negligible.[over utilisation]The expansion of output and employment in such a situation requires huge investment rather than a small injection of new investment.Supporters of Keynes: Utilisation of Surplus workforce/ Huge Investment.Inelastic supply of working capitalLack of banking and institutional finance.Critics: Strict Standards
Price level
AE = Y
The Simple Multiplier and Shifts in the AD Curve
Real GDP
[i]. Aggregate ExpenditureD
esir
ed E
xpen
dit
ure
0
45o
AE0
Y1
E0
Y0
AE1
A
E1
0 Y1Y0
P0
AD0
Pri
ce L
evel
E0 E1
AD1Y
Real GDP
[i]. Aggregate Demand
The simple multiplier and shifts in the AD curve
• A change in autonomous expenditure changes equilibrium GDP for any given price level, and the simple multiplier measures the resulting horizontal shift in the aggregate demand curve.
• The original AE curve is at AE0 with equilibrium at E0, GDP=Y0 and Price level=P0; the yield point E0 on AD0.
• AE0 shifts to AE1 because of an autonomous expenditure increase A, and GDP increases to Y1.
• With given price level P0, the AD curve shifts rightward to E1.
Y
SRAS
A Short-run Aggregate Supply Curve
Real GDP
Y0
P0
SRAS
Real GDP
A Short-run Aggregate Supply Curve
Y0 Y1
P0
P1
SRAS
Real GDP
A Short-run Aggregate Supply Curve
The short-run aggregate supply curve
• The SRAS curve is positively sloped.• The positive slope shows that with prices of labour and
other inputs given, total desired output and the price level will be positively associated.
• A rise in the price level from P0 to P1 will be associated with a rise in output supplied from Y0 to Y1.
• The slope of the SRAS curve is fairly flat at low levels of output and very steep at higher levels.
Y0
P0
SRAS
Macroeconomic Equilibrium
AD
E0
Pri
ce L
evel
0
Real GDP
Y0
P0
SRASAD
E0
Pri
ce L
evel
Y2Y1
P1
0
Real GDP
Macroeconomic Equilibrium
Macroeconomic Equilibrium
• Macroeconomic equilibrium occurs at the intersection of the AD and SRAS curves and determines the equilibrium values for GDP and the price level.
• Equilibrium occurs at E0 with GDP equal to Y0 and the price level P0.
• If the price level were P1, below P0, the desired output of firms would be Y1 but desired demand would be Y2, so desired spending would exceed desired production.
• Only at E0 are desired plans of producers and consumers consistent.
AE = Y
The AE Curve and the Multiplier When the Price Level Varies
Y0
P0
P1
SARS
Real GDP
E0
Pri
ce L
evel
AD0
Des
ired
Exp
end
itu
re
45o
AE0
E0
Real GDP 0 Y0
[i]. Aggregate demand
[i]. Aggregate expenditure
AE = Y
Y1Y0
P0
P1
SARS
Real GDP
E0
Pri
ce L
evel
AD0
Y’1
E’1
1[i]. Aggregate demand
Des
ired
Exp
end
itu
re
AE0
Y’1
E0
AE’1
A
E’1
1
Real GDP 0 Y0
[i]. Aggregate expenditure
45o
The AE Curve and the Multiplier When the Price Level Varies
AE = Y
Y1Y0
P0
P1
SARS
Real GDP
AD1
E0
Pri
ce L
evel
E1
AD0
Y’1
E’1
2
1
Des
ired
Exp
end
itu
re
AE0
Y’1
E0
AE’1
A
E’1
E1
Y1
Y
2
1
AE1
Real GDP 0 Y0
45o
[i]. Aggregate demand
[i]. Aggregate expenditure
The AE Curve and the Multiplier When the Price Level Varies