Actuaries in Financial Markets (Session C2)

CAS Annual Meeting

November 2007

Chicago, IL

Scott J. Swanay, FCAS

Swanay Sports

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Sports – Overview

• Group of fans form/join a fantasy league• Before season starts league participants pick

real-life players for their fantasy team• During season fantasy teams accumulate

points based on how their players perform in real life

• At end of season fantasy team with most points wins

Fantasy SportsTypes of Games

• Rotisserie (e.g. – Baseball, Basketball)

• Points-based (e.g. – Football)

• Salary Cap (All sports)

Rotisserie Games

• Customer provides league-specific inputs

• Apply the Sherpa’s algorithm

• Customer receives player rankings

Customer’s Inputs

• Eligible players

• #Teams (in Customer’s league)

• Scoring categories

• Roster requirements

The Sherpa’s Algorithm

• Project stats for upcoming season

• Translate projected stats into point totals by category

• Factor in position scarcity (supply & demand)

Player Rankings

• Overall ranking for all players

• Rankings of players at each position

• Suggested player dollar values for auction leagues

Points-based Games

• Unlike Rotisserie games, scores in individual categories don’t matter

• Only objective is to accumulate the most points overall

• Most commonly associated with fantasy football, but can be used in other sports too

Salary Cap Games

• Each team starts season with same amount of dollars to spend on players

• Start by assembling most efficient lineup (highest points per dollar at each position)

• Use marginal analysis to maximize points within salary cap constraint

Fantasy Football Tip

The players that get your fantasy football team to the playoffs are not necessarily the players who will help you win your league’s championship – always pay attention to matchups, especially during playoff weeks!

Fantasy Football Tip (Cont)

Think of fantasy football season as having two distinct stages

• Regular season (usually NFL Weeks 1-13)

• Playoffs (usually NFL Weeks 14-16)

3 Offenses with Favorable Schedules NFL Weeks 14-16

• Cleveland (@ NYJ, vs Buf, @ Cin)

• Cincinnati (vs StL, @ SF, vs Cle)

• Tennessee (vs SD, @KC, vs NYJ)

7 Offenses with Unfavorable Schedules NFL Weeks 14-16

• Seattle (vs Ari, @ Car, vs Bal)• Miami (@ Buf, vs Bal, @ NE)• Philadelphia (vs NYG, @ Dal, @ NO)• Houston (vs TB, vs Den, @ Ind)• New York Jets (vs Cle, @ NE, @ Ten)• New Orleans (@ Atl, vs Ari, vs Phi)• Oakland (@ GB, vs Ind, @ Jax)

4 Defenses with Favorable Schedules NFL Weeks 14-16

• Tennessee (vs SD, @ KC, vs NYJ)

• Minnesota (@ SF, vs Chi, vs Was)

• Seattle (vs Ari, @ Car, vs Bal)

• Green Bay (vs Oak, @ StL, @ Chi)

4 Defenses with Unfavorable Schedules NFL Weeks 14-16

• St. Louis (@ Cin, vs GB, vs Pit)

• Oakland (@ GB, vs Ind, @ Jax)

• NY Jets (vs Cle, @ NE, @ Ten)

• Houston (vs TB, vs Den, @ Ind)

Contact Info

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Scott J. Swanay, FCASPresident & Chief Sherpa

(212) 749-5433scott.swanay@SwanaySportsConsulting.com

www.FantasyBaseballSherpa.com