Activity-Based Simulation Of Hypersonic Reusable Launch ... · PDF fileActivity-Based...

Click here to load reader

  • date post

    29-Jun-2018
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    220
  • download

    1

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Activity-Based Simulation Of Hypersonic Reusable Launch ... · PDF fileActivity-Based...

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero1

    Activity-Based Simulation Of Hypersonic Reusable Launch Vehicle Turnaround Time Version A | 30 September 2008

    Mr. A.C. CharaniaPresident | SpaceWorks Commercial | [email protected] | 1+770.379.8006

    Mr. Dominic DePasqualeDirector, Engineering Economics Group | SpaceWorks Engineering | [email protected] | 1+770.379.8009

    Dr. John R. OldsPrincipal Engineer | SpaceWorks Engineering | [email protected] | 1+770.379.8002

    Acknowledgment:

    Mr. Michael KellyOperations Engineer | SpaceWorks Engineering | [email protected] | 1+770.379.8004

    IAC-08-D2.2.959th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), 29 September 03 October 2008, Glasgow, Scotland, UK

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero2

    PresenterPresentation NotesAreas of engagement

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero3

    BACKGROUND

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero4

    THE SPACE SHUTTLE EXPERIENCE

    The Space Shuttle Orbiter is designed for a 2-week ground turnaround, from landing to relaunch. About 160 hours of actual work will be required.

    Source: NASA SP-407, Space Shuttle, ca. 1976; p. 4

    Average STS calendar days in Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF) from 1990 to 1997 was 88 days

    Source: Kennedy Space Center, Space Transportation Ground Processing Operations Modeling and Analysis: A Review of Tools and Techniques, Edgar Zapata, Systems Engineering Office, NASA KSC, June 2003, p. 6.

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero5

    FUTURE HYPERSONIC CONCEPTS: QUANTIFYING BENEFITS

    Future reusable hypersonic vehicles are considered to have potential benefits compared to rocket or solid propulsion systems

    These benefits can arise from reductions in turnaround time, recurring operations costs (labor and materials), and life cycle cost

    Quantifying operability and affordability effects, beyond using historical analogies, has proven difficult for the systems analysis community

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero6

    Photo sources: Stephen Eubank, Social Networks and Epidemics, Basic and Applied Simulation Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, http://blog.q-taro.com/Places%20in%20Tokyo.php

    The world is complex Complex interactions (human to human, human to machine, machine

    to machine) Dynamic events happen -> outcomes change Methods such as MS Excel strain to model dynamic complexity

    MODELING DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero7

    MODELING FRAMEWORK

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero8

    DESCARTES-HYPERPORT: FEATURES

    - Descartes: SpaceWorks Engineerings aerospace discrete event simulation modeling framework using Arena by Rockwell Automation

    - Descartes-Hyperport: Implementation of a discrete event simulation model for turnaround time and recurring operations cost analysis of future reusable launch vehicles

    - Consists of multiple modules and sub-modules within Arena- Full Arena animation, with entity and facility icons, basic on-screen

    statistics- Full run control: length, replications, arrival rates

    - User defines various subsystem-level parameters- Reference database of historical process times and costs

    - Range of simulation statistics output to MS Excel- Entity counters from several checkpoints- Turnaround time, broken down by facility - Show inputs from run in same sheet for easy reference

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero9

    DESCARTES-HYPERPORT: MODEL SCHEMATIC

    Landing

    Mate/DeMate

    Turnaround Integration Flight Operations

    Depot

    Per StagePer Airframe SubsystemPer Propulsion System

    Per StagePer Airframe SubsystemPer Propulsion System

    Database (historical times/costs)MS Excel Workbook

    Inputs / Outputs (user inputs of vehicle)MS Excel Workbook

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero10

    DESCARTES-HYPERPORT MODEL: TURNAROUND (INTERIM VERSION)

    Depot Activities

    Arrival Activities

    Turnaround Activities

    Integration Activities

    Flight Ops Activities

    Turnaround Time (hours)

    Turnaround Sub-Module Detail

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero11

    Stage turnaround currently consists of 8 (S1) or 12 (S2) airframe processing submodels and 3 propulsion processing submodels

    Airframe: TPS, Structures, Power, Avionics, Env. Control, Hydraulics/Actuators, RCS, Mechanical/Pyro; OMS, Thermal Control, Payload, Cockpit/Cabin

    Propulsion: Rocket, Turbine, High-speed Air-breathing

    DESCARTES-HYPERPORT MODEL: TURNAROUND SUBMODEL

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero12

    SystemHTHL TSTO with RTLS, Reusable Booster and Expendable UpperstageGross Weight: 682,000 lbsBooster: 575,000, Upperstage: 88,435 Payload: 13,090Booster2-D lifting body capableFully autonomous flightMach-8 SOL with 3-ramp compression H2O2/JP-7 propellants(6) advanced turbines Mach 0-3.6(4) DMSJ from Mach 3.68(4) Tail Rockets for transonic and from Mach 8 to ~9 (staging)ACC, AFRSI, and CRI TPSEHAs, IVHMGr-Ep airframe, Ti-Al wings/tailsUpper stageH2O2/JP-7 propellantsSingle aft rocketOrbital Insertion: 70x197 nmi. @28.5o

    CASE STUDY VEHICLE 2: QUICKSAT MILITARY SPACE PLANE

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero13

    OVERALL PROJECT MAP

    NASA guidance and concurrence

    on case studiesInjection of New Technologies

    Potential Source: STS, X-33, X-34,

    DC-X. X-15, SR-71, F-15. F-14

    NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Research Opportunities in Aeronautics (ROA), 2007 NASA Research Announcement (NRA)

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero14

    DESCARTES-ROVER

    SEI staff formed an erector set rover assembly line (July 2008)

    Analyzed variations in individual building times

    Used learning curve models and normally-distributed randomness to model the variability

    Generalized findings to build simple prediction formulas including learning curves

    Model designed to be applicable to larger problems

    Uses single formulation to model all individual processes

    Built Arena model for rover assembly using prediction model

    Able to accurately simulate entire process based on well-modeled individual processes

    Create

    Dispose

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero15

    APPENDIX

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero16

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    - Environment: Success of future reusable space access vehicles is largely dependent on their operability

    - Objective: Develop advanced simulation capability to inform decisions makers of the impact of technical (e.g. TPS type, propulsion system) and programmatic decisions on operability and affordability metrics

    - Process: Discrete-event simulation (DES) using Arena software- Simulate activities that determine turnaround time and recurring operations costs

    (Phase I)- Simulate activities that determine vehicle development and acquisition cost (Phase II)- Inputs for such an analysis model include mission profile, campaign, test plan,

    launch/landing sites, vehicle configuration, mass properties, propellant load, takeoff/landing requirements, operational philosophy, subsystem technologies, etc.

    VEHICLE OPS ACTIVITIES DES MODELING

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero17

    - Descartes-Hyperport simulates activities common to reusable Earth-to-orbit launch vehicles in the following categories, each category has multiple (5-15) sub-activities:

    - 1. Cargo Processing- 2. Traffic Control- 3. Launch- 4. Landing- 5. Turnaround- 6. Integration- 7. Depot level- 8. Support- 9. Logistics- 10. Operations and Management- 11. Expendable- 12. Community Infrastructure

    ACTIVITIES BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE (ABS) OVERVIEW

    Source: NASA KSC based A Catalog of Spaceport Architectural Elements with Functional Definition

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero18

    DATA PLAN

    - One large issue is the population of Descartes-Hyperport model with accurate data for subsystems of vehicle concepts

    - Distributions on Descartes model inputs allow for probabilistic simulation- Multiple sources of operational times and costs identified and have

    already obtained many relevant data points- STS, X-15, HL-20, X-33, X-34, ALS/PLS, DC-X, SR-71, XB-70, F-15

    - Leverage existing aircraft maintenance operations knowledge (e.g. Robins AFB depot-level maintenance of C-130s, F-15s, C-5s, and other USAF vehicles)

    - Examining existing models and sources- RMAT- Root-Cause Analysis (RCA)- Operations Simulation and Analysis

    Modeling System (OSAMS)- COMET-OCM- REWARD

  • SpaceWorks Engineering, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero19 SpaceWorks Engineering,