ACI Quarterly Traffic Bulletin

�ACI Quarterly Traffic Bulletin Q� 2009

Worldwide traffic shrank by 8.7% in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the corresponding period of 2008. Freight volumes decreased by 19.5% while movements went down by 8.7%.

Europe was leading the decline (-12%) followed by North America (-11%). Asia Pacific volumes shrank by 3.5% while Latin America / Caribbean and Africa went down by 6% and 8% respectively.

Quarterly figures (all figures presented are year-on-year comparisons)

-8.7%

-19.5%

-8.7%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%Passengers Freight Movements

Q� 2009 percentage growth year-on-year

305.8325.9

269.4 257.2

72.5

30.6 22.0

365.7

266.1

77.1

33.221.8

(7.7)

0.7

(11.9)

(6.0)

(10.9)

(3.3)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

NAM EUR ASP LAC AFR MEA

(millions)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

% change

2009 2008

Q� 2009 total passengers

BulletinQUARTERLY TRAFFIC Q� 2009

2ACI Quarterly Traffic Bulletin Q� 2009

Freight volumes plunged by 21% across the three most significant regions, North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. Latin America / Caribbean reported a 22% decrease while declines were milder in the Middle East (-2.5% and Africa (-10.5%).

North America is the only region where air traffic movements decreased faster (albeit marginally) than passenger numbers. In the other regions traffic reductions were moderately higher than reductions in movements. Bucking the global trend, movements in the Middle East grew by 2%.

5380

6826

399718762

3369

5608

446921782

4234

7092

(20.9) (21.2) (20.4)(22.0)

(2.5)

(10.5)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

NAM ASP EUR MEA LAC AFR

(thousands)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

02009 2008

% change

Q� 2009 total freight

6846

3984

198

7713

4396

1360

568 195

2411

1276

543

2459

(11.3) (9.4)

(1.9)

(6.1)

(4.4)

1.9

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

NAM EUR ASP LAC AFR MEA

(thousands)

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

42009 2008

% change

Q� 2009 total movements


International passenger traffic decreased by 10%, a decline eclipsed by a heavy 24.5% slump in international freight.

International passenger declines were particularly heavy in Europe (-12%) followed by Asia Pacific (-9.5%), North America (-8.5%) and Latin America / Caribbean (-8%). Africa saw a 6% reduction while the Middle East grew by 1.5%.

-9.9%

-24.4%

International Passengers International Freight

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Q� 2009 international passenger and freight year-on-year percentage growth rate

48.9

28.7 20.6 19.918.720.926.444.7

92.1

186.3

101.5

212.1

(7.9)

(5.9)

(12.1)

1.3

(8.6)(9.3)

0

50

100

150

200

250

EUR ASP NAM LAC MEA AFR

(millions)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

22009 2008

% change

Q� 2009 international passengers


Asia Pacific was the region worst hit on international freight shedding 27% together with North America that experienced a similar slump (-27%). International freight volume in Europe shrank by 23% sharply contrasted by the Middle East reporting a marginal 3% decline. International freight in Latin America / Caribbean dropped 23.5% while Africa saw a 16% decrease.

Analysis – Passenger trafficThere are a number of reasons why the first quarter of 2009 is likely to have represented the bottom of the current downturn. First of all, there were two extraordinary circumstances that negatively affected traffic in Quarter 1. Contrary to 2008, February 2009 had no extra leap year day and Easter holidays 2009 fell in the second quarter as opposed to the first quarter in 2008. Both factors combined can alter traffic figures by up to 2% over the quarter. Preliminary April results were also pointing to a softening of the decline.

1325

1811

759318

2430

3603

268

738451

3145

4936

590(26.9)

(2.8)

(23.5)

(15.7)

(27.0)

(22.7)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

ASP EUR NAM MEA LAC AFR

(thousands)

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

02009 2008

% change

Q� 2009 international freight (metric tonnes)

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

APR 2008 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 2009 FEB MAR

% C

hang

e fr

om p

revi

ous

year

Passengers Movements

Evolution of airport traffic worldwide


More importantly, during the first quarter of 2009 a number of major economies in the world have gone into recession (two consecutive quarters of declining GDP) if they had not already by the end of 2008. Export dependent economies such as Japan and Germany were among the most severely hit.

On a regional basis as already pointed out Europe and North America were most severely affected by the downturn. The picture in Asia Pacific is somewhat softened by strong growth and significant volumes of domestic traffic in China.

-15.2%

-6.9%-5.9%

-4.1%-2.9% -2.1% -2.1% -1.8% -1.2%

0.4%

6.1%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%Ja

pan

Ger

man

y

Ital

y

UK

Spa

in

US

A

Can

ada

Bra

zil

Fran

ce Aus

tral

ia PR

C

GDP growth in major markets year-on-year Q� 2009

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


% C

hang

e fr

om p

revi

ous

year

AFR ASP EUR LAC MEA NAM

Total passenger regional trends


Of the 36 countries with more than 20 million passengers per year, only 4 countries saw increased passenger traffic, China, Philippines, Turkey and the U.A.E. All other major markets declined lead by Spain with an 18% decline in passengers closely followed by Russia and Thailand. According to the Tourism Ministry of Spain tourism arrivals in the first quarter of 2009 were down 16.3% as a consequence of the economic crisis and more particularly because of a 25% decline of visitors from the UK shunning traveling abroad because of the weak pound. Currency weakness is also the reason for plunging outbound traffic in Russia while Thailand is also suffering from its exposure to tourism and the aftermath of the political crisis at the end of 2008.

China’s economy has continued to grow in the first quarter albeit at a much slower pace than in previous quarters and years. Passenger traffic in China was predominantly driven by domestic travel, as international travel from and to China has contracted as well. Reasons for the continued strong domestic demand are more migrations within China as a consequence of the economic shift as well as a certain catch up effect from last year’s snow chaos when the country was gridlocked over the Chinese New Year holiday.

China, 13.5Philippinnes, 5.1

Turkey, 2.3United Arab Emirates, 2

Australia, -1.7Malaysia, -2Brazil, -2.6

Canada, -5.9

Norway, 6Indonesia, -6.2

New Zealand -6.6Argentina, -6.7

Hong Kong, China, -7France -7.9

Korea (Rep of), -8Switzerland, -8.2Singapore, -8.4Japan, -9.3

Mexico -9.4Germany, -9.5

Ireland, -11USA, -11.3

India, -11.3Portugal, -11.4

Egypt -11.8United Kingdom, -12.5

Netherlands, -12.6South Africa, -12.7

Italy, -13.3Sweden, -13.9

Austria -14.7Chinese Taipei, -15.2

Denmark, -16Thailand, -17

Russian Federation, -17.2Spain, -18.2

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

Q� 2009 percentage growth by country year-on-year


Turkey’s growth is driven by a fast expanding Turkish Airlines, similarly traffic growth in the U.A.E. is maintained by fast growing home carriers, Emirates and Etihad, in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Among the airports with over 5 million passengers per year only thirty airports registered growth in Quarter 1. Of the top 10 growing airports, 7 are in China, one in Turkey and one in the U.A.E.

�0 airports reporting biggest year-on-year growth in Q�Airport, country passengers % changeNANJING, CN 2 369 122 23.2

BEIJING, CN 15 153 600 21.8

HANGZHOU, CN 3 448 356 21.6

ANKARA, TR 1 351 476 18.5

KUNMING, CN 4 340 361 16.6

CHENGDU, CN 4 928 622 12.6

SHENZHEN, CN 6 158 607 12.4

XIAMEN, CN 2 562 895 11.9

ABU DHABI, AE 2 266 878 7.5

LAGOS, NG 1 164 143 6.9

SHANGHAI, CN (SHA) 5 775 280 6.8

GUANGZHOU, CN 9 124 116 6.5

IZMIR, TR 1 137 555 5.9

KUWAIT, KW 1 828 020 5.7

MANILA, PH 5 783 297 5.1

LIMA, PE 2 117 411 5.0

RECIFE, BR 1 397 548 3.8

BERLIN, DE (SXF) 1 370 472 3.6

PERTH, AU 2 396 709 3.2

MEXICO CITY, MX 6 434 920 2.8

HA NOI, VN 1 906 223 2.4

SHANGHAI, CN (PVG) 7 155 612 2.3

BELO HORIZONTE, BR 1 261 022 2.2

SÃO PAULO, BR (CGH) 3 032 171 2.0

DUBAI, AE 9 529 550 2.0

MILAN, IT (BGY) 1 424 710 0.6

SEOUL, KR (GMP) 3 309 754 0.5

BRISBANE, AU 4 558 769 0.3

PORTO ALEGRE, BR 1 243 313 0.3

SHARJAH, AE 1 325 848 0.2


Of the 30 airports reporting the most significant declines, 8 are located in the U.S. and 7 in Spain. While the U.S. airports are predominantly affected by carrier network restructuring and capacity cuts, decline in Spain are a result of genuine demand decline due to the tourism slump. In the U.K. the charter market dependent airports were majorly affected as the value of the pound bottomed and carriers went out of business. Reductions in Milan are the result of Alitalia’s consolidation of its operation in Rome.

�0 airports reporting biggest year-on-year declines in Q�Airport, country passengers % changeONTARIO CA, US 1 126 976 (32.0)

OAKLAND CA, US 2 086 267 (31.9)

VALENCIA, ES 940 521 (31.6)

MILAN, IT (MXP) 3 714 079 (31.2)

CINCINNATI OH, US 2 499 710 (26.5)

COLUMBUS OH, US 1 393 038 (24.7)

EAST MIDLANDS, GB 918 691 (23.5)

MOSCOW, RU (DME) 3 156 491 (22.7)

BURBANK CA, US 1 070 324 (21.3)

MONTERREY, MX 1 300 663 (21.3)

BRISTOL, GB 1 045 701 (21.3)

BARCELONA, ES 5 485 119 (21.0)

SAN JOSE CA, US 1 859 224 (20.4)

MALAGA, ES 1 967 034 (20.4)

BANGALORE, IN 2 049 664 (20.3)

SAN JUAN, PR 2 132 909 (20.2)

LIVERPOOL, GB 973 404 (20.0)

MILAN, IT (LIN) 1 814 724 (20.0)

WARSAW, PL 1 593 857 (19.9)

LANZAROTE, ES 1 130 004 (19.9)

KANSAS CITY MO, US 2 174 070 (19.5)

TENERIFE, ES 1 997 633 (18.8)

GUADALAJARA, MX 1 597 566 (18.7)

LONDON, GB (LTN) 1 795 816 (18.6)

HYDERABAD, IN 1 457 358 (18.5)

ALICANTE, ES 1 564 721 (18.4)

SHARM EL SHEIKH, EG 1 626 077 (18.4)

GIRONA, ES 943 834 (18.1)

FARO, PT 578 157 (17.8)

SACRAMENTO CA, US 1 982 964 (17.6)

9ACI Quarterly Traffic Bulletin Q� 2009

The breakdown of airports in the sample by size reveals a clear trend illustrating that large airports (over 15 million passengers) are less affected by the crisis than small and medium sized airports (under 15 million passengers). In the latter category declines are between 10 and 11.5%, whereas the large airports dropped more moderately between 7 and 8 %. The ‘winners’ are clearly the very large airports with an average decline of ‘only’ 6%. The consolidation of the airline industry network clearly comes at the disadvantage of the small and medium sized airports without hub status, as many non-stop routes or frequencies became unprofitable in an environment of declining demand. Airlines, network carriers in particular, are keen to consolidate their operations to save costs and retreat to their hubs.

Airports with more than 15 million consequently expand their market share to well over 50% of global traffic. However, the 5-15 million remains the largest single size category for the time being.

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0>40m pa 25-40m pa 15-25m pa 5-15m pa 1-5m pa <1m pa

-6.3%

-7.5%-7.9%

-10.1% -10.1%

-11.4%

Q� 2009 year-on-year growth per size category

>40m pa16.5%

25-40m pa24.7%

15-25m pa 12.7%

5-15m pa27.8%

1-5m pa14.5%

<1m pa3.8%

Q� 2009 airport size category and market share

�0ACI Quarterly Traffic Bulletin Q� 2009

Top 20 international airports Q�/ 2009 (international traffic only)Airport Code Passengers % changeLONDON, GB LHR 13 205 832 (6.2)

PARIS, FR CDG 11 383 660 (8.2)

HONG KONG, HK HKG 10 938 000 (6.9)

AMSTERDAM, NL AMS 8 832 501 (12.4)

FRANKFURT, DE FRA 9 405 894 (11.2)

DUBAI, AE DXB 9 326 849 2.1

SINGAPORE, SG SIN 8 258 225 (7.8)

TOKYO, JP NRT 7 468 707 (10.5)

LONDON, GB LGW 5 511 336 (14.8)

MADRID, ES MAD 6 242 772 (11.4)

INCHEON, KR ICN 6 900 938 (12.4)

BANGKOK, TH BKK 7 329 847 (18.2)

MUNICH, DE MUC 4 772 388 (10.1)

DUBLIN, IE DUB 4 383 732 (11.1)

NEW YORK NY, US JFK 4 451 070 (11.1)

ZURICH, CH ZRH 4 426 691 (6.4)

TAIPEI, TW TPE 4 518 741 (10.4)

TORONTO ON, CA YYZ 4 599 299 (4.0)

KUALA LUMPUR, MY KUL 4 174 376 (3.5)

MIAMI FL, US MIA 3 924 019 (3.3)

Among the top 20 international airports, Dubai was the only airport that could defend an increase in traffic whereas most of the others dropped by more than 10%. Results in London Gatwick were still influenced by a number of carriers moving their operation to Heathrow under the E.U.- U.S. Open Sky agreement.

��ACI Quarterly Traffic Bulletin Q� 2009

Analysis - FreightThe very marked declines in national GDPs shown above coincided with a collapse of global trade at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. However, Quarter 1 represented an unprecedented step change in global trade activity, imports and exports, lead by Japan showing a 29% drop in exports in Quarter 1 and all other regions or countries worldwide reporting double-digit export declines with the exception of Latin America and Africa.

% c

hang

e fro

m p

revi

ous

year



25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

International passenger regional trends

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009

Year

-on

-yea

r per

cen

tag

e ch

ang

e

4.8

1.52.9

-2.6

-15.1

World trade volume

�2ACI Quarterly Traffic Bulletin Q� 2009

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


% c

hang

e fro

m p

revi

ous

year


International freight regional trends

The consequences for international air freight were devastating leading to a 19.5% percent reduction of freight volumes overall in Quarter 1. International freight was of course most badly affected with some airports abruptly losing a third of their freight volume. The month of April has not shown any improvement in world trade activity. Possibly due to the Easter holidays, trade volumes actually deteriorated again slightly.

ACI Quarterly Traffic Bulletin

Documents

Transcript of ACI Quarterly Traffic Bulletin