What Are Installment Sales & Self-Cancelling Installment Notes (SCIN)?
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
-
Upload
world-resources-institute-wri -
Category
Education
-
view
566 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
![Page 1: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
December 9, 2013
Richard Waite, Associate, Food, Forests and Water Program Photo Source: EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection
CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE:ACHIEVING REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY
![Page 2: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• The food challenge and menu of solutions
• Population, food security, and environment: Focus on Africa
• Effective approaches to reducing fertility rates
Agenda
![Page 3: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
HOW CAN THE WORLD FEED MORE THAN 9 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050 IN A MANNER THAT
ADVANCES DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCES PRESSURE ON THE ENVIRONMENT?
![Page 4: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards
2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
The world needs to close the food gap
![Page 5: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at:
<http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012).
The world needs agriculture to support economic development
![Page 6: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The world needs to reduce agriculture’s environmental impactShare of global impact (percent in 2010)
Source: WRI analysis based on IEA (2012); EIA (2012); EPA (2012); Houghton (2008); FAO (2011); FAO (2012); Foley et al. (2005).
7070
100% = 3862 km3 H2O
2437
100% = 49 Gt CO2e 100% = 13.3 bn ha
WATER WITHDRAWAL
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
EARTH’S LANDMASS (EX-ANTARCTICA)
![Page 7: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
A menu of solutions is required to sustainably close the food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
Illustrative
![Page 8: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Consumption Reduce food loss and waste Shift to healthier diets Achieve replacement level fertility Reduce biofuel demand for food crops
Production Sustainably increase crop yields
- Boost yields through attentive crop breeding- Improve soil and water management- Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands
Sustainably increase productivity of livestock- Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands- Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch- Increase productivity of aquaculture
Menu for a sustainable food future (Preliminary)
![Page 9: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Menu for a sustainable food future
Contributes to feeding everyone in 2050 while satisfying (or not negatively impacting) a number of criteria:
Poverty alleviation
Gender
Ecosystems
Climate
Water
Photo source: Andrew So.
![Page 10: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The world’s population is projected to grow from about 7 billion people in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion in 2050, with half of growth in sub-Saharan AfricaPopulation (in billions)
Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa.
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total population by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.
![Page 11: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
All regions except sub-Saharan Africa are projected to reach replacement level fertility by 2050Total fertility rate
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total fertility by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.
Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa.
![Page 12: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
1.5
25% population undernourished
tons/hectare - cereal yields
Source: FAO, WFP and IFAD (2013), WRI analysis based on FAOSTAT (2012), WRI analysis based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).
Population, food security and environment in sub-Saharan Africa: a perfect storm?
25% cereals imported
![Page 13: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
High population growth will create a large “food gap” in sub-Saharan AfricaGlobal annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food
availability needed
660
2,380
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
![Page 14: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Achieving replacement level fertility could help close the global 2050 food gapGlobal annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food
availability needed
9,500
16,000
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
Reduced demand (worldwide
replacement level fertility)
10%
![Page 15: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Achieving replacement level fertility could help close sub-Saharan Africa’s 2050 food gapGlobal annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food
availability needed
660
2,380
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
Reduced demand (worldwide
replacement level fertility)
25%
![Page 16: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Achieving replacement level fertility can bring about a “demographic dividend”
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
Singapore
Hong Kong
South Korea
Taiwan
![Page 17: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Achieving replacement level fertility can avoid additional environmental impacts from agriculture
![Page 18: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Fertility rate, total (births per woman).” Data retrieved November 30, 2012, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.
Total fertility rates can decline rapidlyTotal fertility rate
![Page 19: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest total fertility ratesTotal fertility rate (2005–2010)
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations.
![Page 20: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Photo Source: Travis Lupick.
Approach 1: Educate girls
![Page 21: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest total share of women with at least lower secondary educationPercent of women ages 20–39 with at least lower secondary education (2005–2010)
Source: Harper, S. 2012. “People and the planet.” University of Oxford. Presentation at The Royal Society, London, April 2012.
![Page 22: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Photo Source: UK Department for International Development (DFID).
Approach 2: Reduce child and infant mortality
![Page 23: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest child mortality ratesMortality of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births (2005–2010)
Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.
![Page 24: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Photo Source: Travis Lupick.
Approach 3: Increase access to reproductive health services, including family planning
![Page 25: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest share of women using contraceptionPercent of women ages 15–49 using contraception (2005–2010)
![Page 26: Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110118/5549762db4c905525e8b552b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
wri.org/wrr