Achievable Roadmaps for Solar PV in Indiasolar.missionenergy.org/presentations/Waaree.pdfAchievable...
Transcript of Achievable Roadmaps for Solar PV in Indiasolar.missionenergy.org/presentations/Waaree.pdfAchievable...
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Achievable Roadmaps for Solar PV in India
RISE 2016
23rd September 2016
SANDEEP R. KOPPIKAR
Chief Technology Officer
Waaree Energies Ltd
Mumbai
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Contents
• Recent trends in PV
• Types of roadmaps
• Is it time for vertical integration in PV manufacturing?
• Why invest in high efficiency?
• Dual-purpose technology roadmaps
• Technology learning curves
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Forecast Market Shares: c-Si PV Technology
S Raithel et. al., International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV). Available online at: http://www.itrpv.net/
Evolutionary path for c-Si with minimal capex increment
Captive IP. High cost
High Capex Investment.
Approaching end-of-life
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Roadmaps Goals
• Cell Efficiency
• Module Efficiency
• Energy Yield (kWh/kWp)
• Product Cost ($/Wp)
• LCOE ($/kWh)
• Reliability & Durability
• Domestic Supply-Chain
• PV as an Enabling Technology
• Recyclability
• Minimum Capex and/or Opex
• Minimum pay-back time
• Minimum time to install
• Minimum land use
• Minimum degradation in field
• Maximum energy generation
• High quality
• Easy to transport
• Easy to maintain. Anti-soiling
• Easy and cheap to recycle
Choose the 3 most important roadmaps, and the 3 most important goals. Do they match?
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$/W cost roadmap
Efficiency and $/kWh roadmap
Reliability & durability roadmap
PV as an “enabling” technology
2010 2016
Are modules really going to last 25 years in Indian conditions? How will we recycle failed modules?
Can higher $/Wp help to achieve lower $/kWh? How to motivate investors to climb over the price-barrier?
Can PV help enable progress in irrigation and water management? Build out cold-chains? Desalination?
Will vertical integration make us more competitive? When will the complete PV supply-chain (e.g. Silane, EVA, glass companies) invest in India?
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Barriers to the adoption of new Cell & Module technologies
Standard c-Si (China):
• Low-cost, scalable, but limited conversion efficiency, low performance ratios and fast degradation in Indian conditions
• Scaling enabled lower costs, but is now a source of enormous inertia (resistance to innovations that might obsolete investments in current technologies)
High efficiency (e.g. Panasonic, SPWR):
• Highest commercial efficiencies, but high Capex & Opex
• No supply chain in India (high purity gases and chemicals)
• Daunting cost of scaling in India (high cost of capital, forex exchange rate fluctuations, uncertainty about policies, risk-free land availability)
• Reliability under Indian conditions is unproven. Bankability risk
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Cost roadmap: Vertical Integration Removes Hidden Manufacturing Costs
Poly
Crystal
Wafer
Cell Module
Cost/Watt
Stages of manufacturing
Poly
Crystal
Wafer
Cell
Module
Cost/Watt
Stages of manufacturing
Poly
Crystal
Wafer
Cell
Module
Cost/Watt
Stages of manufacturing
True vertical integration under one ownership
No vertical integration, high volume of imports
GST will enhance the value of vertical integration
Profit margin to supplier + cost of transportation + cost of foreign exchange + import duties, etc.
Goods and Services Tax (GST)
TRUE vertical integration under one brandname: • Fewer hidden costs • More control over supply chain • Easier access to new technologies • Better cost and quality control
• Cost leader
100% imported
Almost 100% imported
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Reliability roadmap: What are the main problems plaguing solar modules in India?
High power degradation rates due to:
• Solar cell cracks – Poor Cell and Module transportation methods
• Bad roads
• High-impact events during load/unload
– Poor installation practices
• Over-tightening of clamps
• Walking on modules
– Microcracks during module manufacture
• Poor equipment preventive maintenance
• Poor support from equipment suppliers
• EVA degradation, Soiling, Thermal losses
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Reliability roadmap: Develop or acquire technologies to address known problems
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Efficiency roadmap: Can we learn to surmount the price barrier for new technologies?
High Efficiency (HE) c-Si based on estimate of SPWR reported module costs (“cost per-watt targets…decreased from
$1.79/watt in 2010 to $1.49/watt in 2011, to $1.20/watt in 2012” 2012 Annual Report; 20% reduction in 2013, SPWR website),
reported gross margin (28% in Q4 ’13, SPWR Q4 ‘13 Earnings), module cost & efficiency road map (SPWR Analyst Day, 5/13).
Sources: SunPower SEC filings, and SPWR Analysts Day, May 2013, Available Online at: http://investors.sunpower.com/events.cfm
The leading technology companies endured years of losses and several learning cycles
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PV Module Cost Forecast (excl. Performance)
$-
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
Tier 1Leader c-Si
(330W)
HE c-Si(407W)
Tier 1Leader c-Si
(345W)
HE c-Si(415W)
HJT (397W) Tier 1Leader c-Si
(371W)
HE c-Si (454) HJT (419W)
2014 2017 2020
Cu
rre
nt
$U
.S. p
er
W
c-Si PV: Efficiency-Adjusted Module Costs
Modules
Cells
Wafer
Ingot
Poly
2014 2017 2020
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Performance Adjusted PV Module Costs
$-
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
Tier 1Leader c-Si
(330W)
HE c-Si(407W)
Tier 1Leader c-Si
(345W)
HE c-Si(415W)
HJT (397W) Tier 1Leader c-Si
(371W)
HE c-Si (454) HJT (419W)
2014 2017 2020
Cu
rre
nt
$U
.S. p
er
W
c-Si PV: Efficiency-Adjusted Module Costs Efficiencyadjustment range
Efficiencyadjustment
Modules
Cells
Wafer
Ingot
Poly
2014 2017 2020
Efficiency and energy yields at STC corrected to real operating conditions. Differences in long-term reliability are not accounted for here
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Applications roadmap Using PV to enable other applications
Develop dual-purpose solar PV applications:
• Use solar energy for water-management (e.g. lift-irrigation)
• Use lift-irrigation systems as a form of energy storage
• Use floating PV systems to reduce water evaporation losses
• Promote growth of biofuel crops under solar panels
• Develop feeder segregation schemes linked with distributed rural PV to promote rural and agricultural development
Benefits:
• Allows developers to tap multiple financing schemes
• Meets India’s NDC commitments to the UN Climate Change Treaty
• Enables rural and farmer development
• Complements the National Water Mission
• Can benefits enabled by PV be used to lower total PV cost?
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PV powered feeder segregation scheme
PV power for villages and separately for farmers: Rural electrification at lower cost
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Growing biofuel plants under solar panels in Fukushima, Japan
Farmer can sell power as well as biofuel plants that require less sunlight
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Floating PV At the cross-roads of the National Solar and National Water Missions
Floating PV can reduce evaporation of water, enable lift-irrigation, flood-control, desalination, etc.
500MW of floating PV along canal and on reservoirs for lift-irrigation
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Technology Learning Curves
Learning rate:
% reduction in production cost after doubling of production capacity
Pre-requisites for fast learning:
• Public and private investment in R&D (costly but gives first-mover advantage)
• Diffusion and adoption of technology (cheaper but more efficient than R&D
investment)
• Cluster learning: Learning rates increase when more factories, suppliers, universities,
skilled workers, etc. are located close to each other
• Spillover effects: New materials and processes developed for the semiconductor
industry can be used in solar PV cells and thin-film modules
• Policies that promote the above
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The PV “Experience Curve”
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Improvements in PV Performance Ratio in Germany
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Conclusion
• There is no point creating ambitious technology roadmaps for India. Better to develop or invest in technologies that address the challenges of PV in India
• In India we are too focused on lower system cost ($/W) even if it weakens system performance and lifetime. Need to develop ways for developers to monetize the long-term benefits of higher PR, higher durability
• PV can enable new applications – benefits of such dual-purpose PV applications could also be monetized to reduce the cost of PV
• Take the long view. Invest in high efficiency.