aceas thackway 2010 12 15 final - aceas.org.au 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 X, Y Tas Midlands...

Richard Thackway

ACEAS Seminar, UQ, Brisbane 15 December 2010

www.abare-brs.gov.au

Outline

•  Drivers

•  Big questions and the challenge

•  Background

•  This project and preliminary results

•  Where to from here

•  Conclusions


Drivers for native veg condition info

•  NRM policy and program design e.g. –  Implementing guidelines for conservation and management of threatened

species EPBC ACT

–  Reporting on the performance of investment e.g. changing LMP to

improve landscape connectivity

–  Assessing land acquisitions for the National Reserve System

•  Resource management e.g. –  A measure of sustainable use and management (public/private)

•  Monitoring and reporting and improvement e.g. –  National, state & regional reporting e.g. SoE & SOFR

–  Reporting 5 yearly outcomes Regional Forest Agreements 3


The big questions

1.  What happened in this landscape over time <200yrs?

2.  How might these responses of native veg affect future land use options?


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Hypothetical - transformations of

Eucalypt open forests in Tasmania


1850-1900

1900-1950

2000-2010

Changes over time

1800-1850

1788-1800

1950-2000

The challenge


Perceptions and misconceptions

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•  Except within the last 30 yrs there is no reliable vegetation condition data / info on changes over time

•  Historical written observations of LU & LMP do not provide a reliable record changes in veg condition

•  Study of native veg condition is a new and emerging discipline

•  Detailed site-based ecological benchmarks are required to assess condition


Historic use of vegetation condition info

High

Low

Low High

Influence of veg information

on public debate

Community’s willingness to act

Rainforests

Acacia shrublands Hummock Grasslands Tussock grasslands Other shrublands Leptospermum Heaths Chenopod shrublands

Savannah woodlands Eucalypt river red

gum forests

Mangroves

Eucalypt grassy woodlands

Tall wet eucalypt forests

Coastal heaths

Alpine grasslands

Acacia woodlands

Mallee shrublands


In a nutshell - what are the problems?

  No repository of data and information of vegetation change

  General lack of awareness of what, when and where LU & LMP

occurred and what are the ongoing consequences on condition:

•  Structure

•  Floristics

•  Regenerative capacity

  General lack of discoverable and accessible information at

•  Site and regional levels of what occurred when •  Fragmenting & modifying particular landscapes (LU world view)

•  Repairing & restoring particular landscapes (Restoration world view)


Assumptions

•  Changes in LMP –  result in predictable changes in structure, floristics & regen capacity –  are adequately and reliably documented over time & are available/

accessible –  can be used to simulate changes in vegetation condition –  can be consistently and reliably differentiated from natural

environmental changes

•  Ecological models and remote sensing can be used to spatially extend localised transformations to the broader landscape


Solutions to date – snap shots

•  Site-based reporting of current veg cond e.g. BioCondition, Habitat Hectares etc

•  Whole of landscape reporting of current veg cond e.g. VAST

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Vegetation States Assets and Transitions (VAST) framework

VI V IV III II I 0

Native vegetation cover

Non-native vegetation cover

Increasing vegetation modification

Transitions = trend

Vegetation thresholds

Benchmark for each veg type (NVIS)

A framework for compiling & reporting veg condition

Condition states

Residual Naturally bare

Modified Transformed Replaced -Adventive

Replaced - managed

Replaced - removed

www.abare-brs.gov.au 40 kms 0

Example: VAST Nandewar bioregion, NSW

Source: Westaway, Drielsma and Ferrier. (2004).

VAST classes I – Residual II – Modified III – Transformed IV – Replaced (Adventive) V – Replaced – managed VI – Replaced - removed

Increasing modification of veg structure, composition and regen capacity

VAST V & VI

VAST IIIb

VAST IIIa

VAST II

VAST I

O - 9

1O - 49

5O - 74

75 - 89

9O - 100

VAST


Relevance of info to decision makers

Adaptive management cycle

2Set goals, objectives, targets, prioritise

Characterise/ assessments/ define problems, issues

1

5Future Resource condition

4Check on-ground action, adoption of

management practice/s Design & implement program/s e.g. MBIs, regulation, capacity building, incentives, interventions, etc

3


This project

•  Develop an approach for simulating spatial and temporal responses of native vegetation to LMP

•  Investigate opportunities for deriving trajectories of vegetation transformation

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www.abare-brs.gov.au 16

Converting historical observations into ecological records

Where

When What


Land management practices (LMP) = the how of land use:

•  Remove life forms e.g. tree, shrub, grass e.g. push out, pull out, cut off and chemically treat

•  Replace life forms e.g. tree, shrub, grass e.g. replant, rehabilitate, re-sow

•  Manage health & vitality of life forms e.g. tree, shrub, grass e.g. prune, stake, slash, fertilise, graze

•  Manage residues from life forms e.g. tree, shrub, grass e.g. burn grass, burn fine woody debris, bark, leaves

What are LMPs?


Two types of data and information

Mainly aspatial - text-based e.g. •  Land use and land management history •  Environmental history •  Ecological history •  Other

Mainly spatial - maps and models incl. remotely images and GIS –  ecological sources –  land use and LMP sources –  Geographical and historical sources –  other

Older & more qualitative

More recent & more quantitative


1962 1983 1986 1997 2004

Proof of concept

VAST states mapped between 1962 - 2004 Talaheni –250 ha southern tablelands New South Wales

Source: Thackway, Lesslie and Frakes (2006)


Method

1.  Compile & geo-code spatial and temporal disturbance histories

2.  Simulate vegetation condition and transformations

a)  Translate and standardise descriptions of land management practices (LMP) into Land Use and Management Information System (LUMIS)

b)  Simulate above and below ground the responses of native vegetation to impacts of LMPs (i.e. regenerative capacity, structure and composition)

i.  abiotic and physicochemical environment ii.  modification of structure and composition of the overstorey and

understorey including the importance of weeds c)  Calculate the total condition scores for each year of data d)  Summary table e)  Graph of final transformation scores

3.  Model spatial extent of observations at a landscape scale


Transformation of 3 Ha patch of Themada. Organ Pipes NP Source: Thackway & Lesslie 2006 Year

Themeda grassland Indigenous managed 1788 Grazing (shepherds) 1830 1830 Grazing using set stocking 1855 1855 Conversion of Themeda grassland to crop and pasture system 1860 1860 Intensive crop and pasture system 1870 1870 Crop and pasture system abandoned and minimally managed 1972–1988 was declared Organ Pipes NP 1972 Area declared part of the Organ Pipes NP 1989 1988 Organ Pipes NP 1993 the area was revegetated with native spp 1993 Organ Pipes NP 1995 the area was revegetated with native spp 1995 Organ Pipes NP condition declining very weedy (2003) 2003

Step 1: Compile & geo-code spatial and temporal disturbance histories


Land use codes

Land management practices focussed on: PLANTS_VEG (codes

1.n.n.n.n.) on ANIMALS (codes 2.n.n.n.n) on SOIL (codes 3.n.n.n.n)

on WATER (codes 4.n.n.n.n)

Year ALUM

classification

First LUMIS code

Second LUMIS code

Third LUMIS code

Forth LUMIS code

Fifth LUMIS code

1788 1.2.5

1830 2.1.0 1.3.1.4

1855 2.1.0 1.3.1.4

Step 2a: Translate and standardise LU & LMPs


Step 2b: Derive a score of regenerative capacity

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For a plant community score the impacts of LMPs on abiotic and physicochemical pathways

Year Fire

regime Hydrological

state Soil physical

state Soil chemical state Soil biological state

Spatial pattern Reduction of fire scale

mosaic of patches

Aspatial attributes Departure from

natural fire regime e.g. freq, intensity

& seasonality

Reduction in available soil

water e.g. drains & drainage

Increase in available soil water e.g irrigation water

Reduction of depth of A horizon

Reduction of soil structure

Reduction of natural fertility

Addition of industrial NPK

and trace elements

Reduction of biotic recyclers

Reduction of locally

indigenous surface organic

matter

1788

1830

1855


Step 2b: Simulate responses of LMPs on structure and composition

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Native vegetation extent Non-native vegetation extent >70%

unmodified 30-70%

unmodified 10-30%

unmodified <10%

unmodified (novel veg)

100% modified (replaced

production veg)

100% modified

(replaced no veg)

Vegetation structure

Upper

Lower

Vegetation composition

Upper

Lower

Structural 1.  Height 2.  Cover 3.  Structural or age class diversity


Step 2c: Derive total scores for veg condition

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Sum component scores to derive total impact of LMPs on regenerative capacity, vegetation structure and composition

Year Regenerative

capacity Vegetation structure

Vegetation composition

Total VAST

1788 80 240 80 400 I 1830 80 240 80 400 I 1855 64 150 60 274 III etc

Total scores VAST class

350-400 I 250-349 II 150-249 III 0-149 IV/V


Transformation of 3 Ha patch of Themada. Organ Pipes NP Year Score VAST Themeda grassland Indigenous managed 1788 400 I Grazing (shepherds) 1830 1830 400 I Grazing using set stocking 1855 1855 274 III Conversion of Themeda grassland to crop and pasture system 1860 1860 149 IV/V Intensive crop and pasture system 1870 1870 91 IV/V Crop and pasture system abandoned and minimally managed 1972–1988 was declared Organ Pipes NP 1972 56 IV/V Area declared part of the Organ Pipes NP 1989 1988 72 IV/V Organ Pipes NP 1993 the area was revegetated with native spp 1993 78 IV/V Organ Pipes NP 1995 the area was revegetated with native spp 1995 117 IV/V Organ Pipes NP condition declining very weedy (2003) 2003 102 IV/V

Step 2d: Summary table

Source: Thackway & Lesslie 2006


Step 2e: Preliminary results for selected sites


Talaheni, Murrumbateman, NSW


Commenced restoration

toward native vegetation

Fencing and set stocking commenced

Overstorey cleared

Lightly grazing commenced

1962

Source: Fig 3 http://143.188.17.20/data/warehouse/brsShop/data/workshop_16_thackway.pdf

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Transformations of grassy woodland Talaheni, NSW

- qualitative & quantitative data

VAST I

VAST II

VAST III

VAST IV/V


Lower Cotter Catchment, ACT


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Transformation of Themeda grassy woodland,

ACT – qualitative data

Organ Pipes NP, Vic


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core

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Transformation of 3 Ha patch of Themeda

grassland - Vic Basalt Plains

Eucalypt forest, South Brooman State Forest, NSW


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Transformation of Euc. Forest - Compartment 47,

South Brooman State Forest - quantative and qualitative data


Where to from here?

•  Incorporate a regional context - first contact by explorers •  Step 3: Model spatial extent of observations at a landscape scale

•  Investigate ways of up-scaling sites to landscape scale using models and remote sensing

–  Overstorey –  Foliage projective cover –  Height –  Structural diversity

–  Understorey –  Height –  Structural diversity –  Ground cover

•  Reference sites •  More case studies ....?


Based on Cannon (1987)

Year of first contact by explorers


Step 3: Model landscape level transformations

Source: Sayre et al. (2009)

•  Compiling model inputs for a national ecosystems mapping project (using GEOSS approach)

•  TERN Auscover (2010 EIF proposal)

•  CSIRO, ABARES, ANU and SEWPAC

•  ~100m grid

•  Help needed here with modelling

EIF (Education Investment Fund)


Hei

ght

Crown /Foliage cover

Eucalyptus populnea (poplar box) woodland with emergent Angophora, Injune Qld.

Strata

LiDAR (1m cubes)

Step 3: Establish links with remote sensing



Landsat MODIS

Burdekin catchments, Qld Green = Foliage Projective Cover Brown = Ground cover



Dynamic Land Cover ‘view areas that show a sharp change in trend data in tussock grassland’

TERN, GA, ABARES, CSIRO

MODIS



Dynamic Land Cover ‘view areas that show a sharp change in trend data in tussock grassland’

TERN, GA, ABARES, CSIRO

A B

MODIS


Reference sites network

•  Permanent sites showing relationships between LMP/s and veg condition

•  Relevant sites include

•  Forests

•  Rangelands

•  Other?

•  Some work is needed to:

•  Compile national network of sites (TERN)

•  Validate relationships between LMP and veg condition


Hypothetical - Interim maps of veg transformations


•  Preliminary results are promising

•  Quantitative and qualitative info is used to simulate veg condition

•  Access to site-based longitudinal datasets will help refine the approach

•  Independent datasets are needed to validate relationships between the scores and the thresholds represented in the VAST classes

•  This approach does not aim to simulate habitat or old growth

Conclusions


Acknowledgements

•  ACEAS-TERN is funding my sabbatical at the University of Queensland

•  CSIRO Ecosystems Sciences, Canberra for hosting me as a visiting scientist

•  ABARES, Greening Australia, Forestry NSW, CSIRO ES, John Ive for providing datasets


Thank you

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