Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation
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Transcript of Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation
Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation
Auditor of Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation
Alexander Piskunov
Possibilities of using information technologies for KNI evaluation
KNI transparency problem
2
Progress definition
Freedom as realized necessity
(F. Engels)
Freedom as possibility of self-realization
(A. Sena)
Freedom as the realized potential possibilities of realization of final goals
Development of socio-economic capabilities as ends and means of development
Development of socio-economic capabilities as ends and means of development
3
Using the capabilities approach fora comprehensive evaluation of a project
Capability: property of a system, probability that the system will succeed in achieving the goal of its functioning.
The correspondence between required and predicted state sets in the functioning of a system can be represented as the probability of the following binary predicate being true:
1,
дk k
k K
Poss Y Y
, 1, ;kY k K прогнозные значения
, 1, .дkY k K требуемые значения
predicted state set
required state set
4
Problem of development management evaluation
Measurement of social-economical capability as progress measurement 5
Ind
exes
of
po
ten
tial
s o
f
com
pet
itiv
e ab
ilit
y
Evaluation of key assets indexes of providing competitive ability potentials
Key assets
Countries
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Strategic goalsInternational standards and agreements
Terms and definitions
Databases provided by national statistics agencies and international institutions, including UN, OECD, WB, IMF, Eurostat
AtributesComputation methodologies
Key National Indicators Knowledge Base
7
Cluster analysis results (based on 410 KNI provided by World Bank with 2000-2008 time frame)
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Cluster analysis results (based on 119 competitiveness indicators provided by WEF 2010)
Uncovering hidden patterns with Data Mining
techniques
Uncovering hidden patterns with Data Mining
techniques
KNI identification with Data Mining techniques
Revealed dependencies of Global Competitiveness Index on KNI
Revealed dependencies of Global Competitiveness Index on KNI
410 indicators36 countries
time frame 2004 – 2008
410 indicators36 countries
time frame 2004 – 2008
Global Competitiveness
Index
Global Competitiveness
Index
10
Statistically significant KNI
11
Socio-economic development indicator Correlation coefficient
Number of Internet users, per 100 citizens 0.879
Life expectancy at birth, years 0.736
GDP per capita, PPP US$ 0.716
Female survival to age 65, % of cohort 0.702
Population ages 65 and above, % of total 0.516
Significant indicators identified with convenient statistical techniques
Significant indicators identified with Data Mining techniques
Socio-economic development indicator Correlation coefficient
Agricultural raw materials imports, % of merchandise imports -0.083
Electricity production from oil sources, % of total -0.332
Urban population growth, annual % -0.107
Foreign direct investment, net inflows, % of GDP 0.034
Problem of development metrics transparency
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Socio-economic development comparison
Results of complex KNI assessment
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Country B
Country C
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Results of complex KNI assessment
Problem of development potentials comparison
16
Conceptual space for development potential assessment
17
Results of KNI assessment with imitation modeling of development programs
18
Interval-based assessment of investment projects
19
Capability indicator at a critically low level
20
Information technology improvements in management and audit
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The practice of comprehensive audit
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Indicators for comprehensive evaluation
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The architecture of comprehensive audit
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Performance audit
Analyze and diagnose the results of FA and PA