Accession and Promotion Planning Overview

CAPT Julie McNallyMedical Department & Nurse Corps OCM

14 Nov 2012

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Fleet Requirements

OCMInput USNA

NROTC STA21OCS

N10Planners

N13Accession

Plan

N1

Other Sources

Demand Signal End Strength & Fiscal Controls

Community Factors

Approves Plan

Projected Yield to Planner

MMR, IST, Recalls, Directs

Source Factors for Accession Planning: • “Locked”: USNA, NROTC, STA-21, MM, OCS SWO (N)

•“Flexible”: OCS and Direct Accessions (DA)

OPA

Officer Accession Planning

The Balancing of Accessions:How we get there…

• Requirements– What do we need?

• Each OCM conducts in depth analysis and presents a defense for accession need

• Influences– CNP Direction– Community sponsor input– What is the trade space? (LOCKED VICE FLEXIBLE)

• Stated need applied against guidance & fiscal constraints– Start with a number (4150) and work backwards by determining

what areas can be affected • not “locked” or constrained by CNP policy, OCS contracts, multi-year training pipelines

– Multiple Courses of Action are developed and briefed

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“Locked” Accession Sources

• USNA output programmed 4 years prior. • NROTC similar, but with some flexibility with College

Program and 2 year scholarships. • STA-21 programmed 3 years in advance. • Thus, OCS (DA & BDCP) is used as a “throttle” to

cover shortfalls in other programs. One of the few Direct Accession sources that can be cut within the FY.

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Accession Source Constraints

•Roughly 87% of the FY13 accession quotas are constrained by prior planning•FY14-FY16 ~ 60% constrained against total of 4000

Accession Tradespace is Limited in the 12-24 Months Prior to Execution

KEYInflexible; quotas fixed by contract or prior commitment

Somewhat flexible; the Navy has not committed all quotas

Flexible; the Navy has not committed to quotas

OCS23%

DIRECT5%

RECALL1%

MM ACAD

0%

IST0%

STUDENT14%

STA-215%

FM ENL (LDO/CWO)

12%

USNA19%

ROTC21%

Flexibility of FY-13 Accessions Data source FY13 3990+100 Accession Plan Draft as of 30JUL12/FY14-FY18 Strength & INV letter Draft as of 31MAR12/FY13 CNRC Contracts as of 30JUL 12

USNA GOAL

NROTC GOAL

STA-21 GOAL

FM ENL GOAL

OCS (DA) & OCS (BCDP) GOAL

MERCHANT MARINE GOAL

INDEFRECALL

INTER-SERVICE

TRANSFER

DIRECT GOAL

STUDENT OPTION GOAL

TOTAL % of FY13 Plan

FY13 PLAN TOTAL 771 829 198 504 912 14 25 4 188 555 4000

4 year pipeline

2-4 year pipeline

2-4 year pipeline

2-4 year pipeline

Can delay OCS and

some BDCP

4yr pipeline

Can Reduce Current

Year

Can Reduce Current

Year

Can Reduce Current

Year2-4 year pipeline

FY13 771 829 198 504 585 14 0 0 36 555 3492 87%

FY14 785 700 87 94 177 21 0 0 36 515 2415 60%

FY15 773 750 64 94 177 21 0 0 36 515 2430 61%

FY16 750 712 45 94 177 21 0 0 36 515 2350 59%

FY17 750 712 45 0 177 0 0 0 36 0 1720 43%

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Excerpt - FY 13 Accession PlanFY13 4150 01OCT12

DESIG USNA GOAL

USNA (UPPER/ LOWER Bands)

NROTC GOAL

NROTC (UPPER/ LOWER Bands)

STA-21

GOAL

STA-21 Target

FM ENL GOA

L

OCS AP

GOAL

NRC GOAL

NRC Contracted

to Date (AS OF

26SEP12)

MMA/MMR GOAL

INDEF RECAL

L

I-SERVICE TRF/

COMM GOAL

DIRECT GOAL

NRC DIRECT GOAL

STUDENT

OPTION GOAL

TOTAL GOAL

SWO (ED Option) 14 12-14 14 12-14 4 4 0 3 3 1 0 0 0 36SWO (IP Option) 5 2-5 3 1-3 3 3 0 5 6 4 0 0 16SWO (OCEANO Option) 3 1-3 3 1-3 3 3 0 5 5 4 0 14SWO (IW Option) 2 1-2 3 1-3 0 0 5 5 4 0 10SWO (INTEL Option) 2 1-2 3 1-3 1 1 6SWO 116X* 186 181-191 225 175-235 42 42 0 145 165 95 10 2 0 610SWO(N) 116X* 31 31 31 7 7 0 39 43 35 0 108 Male 21 20 5 27 30 Female 10 11 2 12 13SWO TOTALS 243 282 222-292 59 59 0 203 228 142 11 2 0 800

SUB (SE) 1175E 10 10 0 0 20SUB 117X ** 135 114 31 31 0 135 144 107 0 415 Male 124 110 30 130 138 Female 11 4 1 5 6SUB TOTALS 135 114 114 31 31 0 135 144 107 0 415SPECWAR 118X 27 27-30 9 9-11 3 3 0 21 23 1 2 9 2 0 73EOD 119X 13 12-13 12 12-13 5 5 0 8 9 2 0 38NFO 137X 78 75-78 72 67-77 24 24 0 91 119 31 5 3 0 273PILOT 139X 230 225-230 228 218-238 40 40 0 268 309 176 5 3 0 774AVIATION TOTALS 308 300-308 300 285-315 64 64 0 359 428 207 10 0 6 0 1047

URL TOTALS 726 702-733 717 645-748 162 162 0 726 832 459 23 11 8 0 2373

HR 120X*** 2 2 0 3 0 5NUCLEAR PWR SCHL INST 121X 0 23 23 0 23Naval Reactors Engineer 122X 0 9 9 0 12 12 0 21PMP 123X 0EDO 146X 0 0 0AEDO 151X 0 0AMDO 152X 0 0 14 15 3 14PAO 165X 0 0 4 4 0 0 4FAO 17XX 0 0 0 0Meteorology/Oceanography 180X 1 0-1 0 0 7 8 1 0 8Information Warfare 181X 4 0-4 1 0-1 4 4 0 38 39 7 0 1 48Information Professional 182X 4 0-4 1 0-1 0 0 1 1 1 0 6Intelligence 183X 8 0-8 1 0-1 8 8 0 51 55 24 0 1 1 70Cyber Warfare Engineer 184X 2 2 2 3 3 5CEC 510X 6 0-6 3 0-3 4 4 0 60 61 40 0 1 74Supply 310X 13 0-13 3 0-3 3 3 0 85 100 28 0 0 104JAG 250X 0 0 6 6 47 53CHC 410X 0 0 15 37 37 52MED SCHL**** 10 0-15 15 0-15 1 1 0 0 23 49MC 210X 0 0 8 8 250 258DC 220X 0 0 2 24 24 75 101NC 290X 46 44-46 14 14 46 0 2 65 65 65 238MSC 230X 0 40 0 2 110 110 82 234RL/Staff Community Recalls 0 0RL/STAFF TOTALS 46 0-46 81 76-102 36 36 86 260 283 106 0 24 1 314 288 519 1367

LDO 0 0 237 0 0 0 0 237CWO 0 0 0 173 0 0 0 0 0 173TOTAL 772 702-779 798 721-850 198 198 496 986 1115 565 23 35 9 314 288 519 4150

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Officer Promotion Basics

• Promotions are a function of:– Requirements

• Defined by Officer Programmed Authorizations (OPA)• Includes both designator discrete and non discrete

1000/1020/1050 OPA– Vacancies

• Promotions, Retirements, Resig’s, Lat Transfers• Legal limits• DOPMA Grade Table - Limits the number of CAPTs, CDRs, &

LCDRs based on total officer strength

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Legal Limits

Grade LAW(Title 10 §623)

OPP FLOW

DoD(DODINST 1320.13)

OPP FLOW

Navy(SECNAVINST 1420.1B)

OPP FLOWCAPTCDRLCDRLTLTJG

“Relatively similar opportunity for promotion in each of the next five years”

50% 21-23 yrs70% 15-17 yrs80% 9-11 yrsAFQ 3.5 yrs AFQ 1.5 yrs

40-60% 21-23 yrs60-80% 15-17 yrs70-90% 9-11 yrsAFQ 4 yrs AFQ 2 yrs

• Flowpoint: Average years of service when a due course officer is promoted to the next grade

• Opportunity: the in-zone possibility of selection• Selection Rate: Percentage of all officers selected for

promotion Selections (AZ + IZ + BZ) Total Officers in Zone

– Max below zone - 10% (statutory limit)– No above zone limits (by law or policy)– All officers on the Active Duty List are considered

Promotion Basics

= Selection Rate

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Promotion Basics

• Start with FY beginning inventory• Add gains (lateral transfer, accessions)• Subtract losses (retire, resign, lateral transfer etc.)• Compare total against FY Authorized Strength

• If total < Auth Strength, select the difference• If total > Auth Strength, no selections

Begin INV 600Gains + 10Losses - 60Sum = 550

Auth Strength 600 Sum - 550 Difference + 50

50 Selections for Promotion10

Promotion Basics

• Example - If 50 is the fixed number of promotions...Zone size = #Promotions Percent Opportunity

125 = 50 40%100 = 50 50%

83 = 50 60%

• Opportunity, Zone Size, and Flowpoint are all related– Higher OPPORTUNITY means smaller ZONES, which means

longer (increased) FLOWPOINT• Larger zones will increase the FOS rate

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Questions/ Discussion