ACCENT Experiment 2
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Transcript of ACCENT Experiment 2
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ACCENT Experiment 2
• 25 different models perform same experiments– 15 Europe:
• 4 UK (STOCHEM x2, UM_CAM, TOMCAT)• 3 Germany (MATCH-MPIC x2, MOZECH)• 2 France (LMDzINCA x2)• 2 Italy (TM5, ULAQ)• 1 Switzerland (GEOS-CHEM)• 1 Norway (UIO_CTM2)• 1 Netherlands (TM4)• 1 Belgium (IASB)
– 7 US:• GMI (x3), NCAR (MOZART4), GFDL (MOZART2), LLNL, GISS
– 3 Japan:• JAMSTEC – CHASER (x2), FRSGC/UCI
• Large ensemble reduces uncertainties, and allows them to be quantified
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ACCENT Expt 2
• Consider 2030 – ‘the next generation’ – of direct interest for policymakers
• 3 Emissions scenarios– ‘Likely’: IIASA CLE (‘Current Legislation’)– ‘Low’: IIASA MFR (‘Maximum technically
Feasible Reductions’)
– ‘High’: IPCC SRES A2
• Also assess climate feedbacks – expected surface warming of ~0.7K by 2030
• Target IPCC-AR4
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People & Organisation• Co-ordination; N+S-deposition, Tropospheric O3
– F. Dentener, D. Stevenson• Surface O3 - impacts on health/vegetation; web-site
– K. Ellingsen• NO2 columns – comparison of models and satellite data
– T. van Noije, H. Eskes• Emissions
– M. Amann, J. Cofala, L. Bouwman, B. Eickhout• Data handling and storage (SRB; ~1 TB of model output)
– J. Sundet• Other modellers and contributors:
– C.S. Atherton, N. Bell, D.J. Bergmann, I. Bey, T. Butler, W.J. Collins, R.G. Derwent, R.M. Doherty, J. Drevet, A. Fiore, M. Gauss, D. Hauglustaine, L. Horowitz, I. Isaksen, M. Krol, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lawrence, V. Montanaro, J.-F. Müller, G. Pitari, M.J. Prather, J. Pyle, S. Rast, J. Rodriguez, M. Sanderson, N. Savage, M. Schultz, D. Shindell, S. Strahan, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, O. Wild, G. Zeng
Climate change/deposition
CO
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IPCC-AR4-ACCENT ‘High’ Ship Emission Scenario
• Scenario S4: IPCC A2, but with ship emissions of the year 2000
• Scenario S4s: "Worst" case ship emission scenario in conjunction with S4.
Simulation ID emissions Meteo
S1 IIASA-CLE-2000 2000
S1c IIASA-CLE-2000 1990s/2000s
S2 IIASA-CLE-2030 2000
S2c IIASA-CLE-2030 1990s/2000s
S3 IIASA-MRF-2030 2000
S4SRES-A2-2030, but with ship emissions of the year 2000
2000
S4sSRES-A2-2030; Traffic A2s
Ship emissions increase with a flat increase of 2.2 % /year compared to the year 2000
2000
S5c IIASA-CLE-2030 2020s/2030s
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SO2 High ship emissions: A2s "2030" NOx High ship emissions: A2s "2030"
SO2 emissions: A2 "2000" NOx emissions: A2 "2000"
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2000 A2(2030) A2s(new) A2s-A2
SO2 in
Tg(SO2)/yr
11.23 31.7 38.84 7.14
NOx in
Tg(NO2)/yr
52.74 107.4 116.8 9.4
IPCC-AR4-ACCENT ‘High’ Ship Emission ScenarioCharacteristics:
The idea of comparing A2 to A2s:
1. What is the influence of ship emissions on tropospheric chemistry in 2030 if they were unabated?
2. Does an ensemble of models give approximately the same answer regarding the influence of ship emissions?
Status: Data analysis recently started
• Thanks to everybody who sent data so far (FRSGC_UCI, LMDz/INCA, MATCH-MPIC, TM4)
• We invite all other model groups to join in the inter-comparison
• If you are interested, please contact [email protected] and [email protected]
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Year 2000 Anthropogenic NOx Emissions
EDGAR database: Jos Olivier et al., RIVMPlot: Martin Schultz, MPI
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Year 2000 tropospheric NO2 columns
Model(ensemble mean)
Observed (GOME)(mean of 3 methods)
Courtesy Twan van Noije, Henke Eskes – figure from Dentener et al, submitted
(10:30am local sampling in both cases)
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Courtesy Twan van Noije
Modelled column NO2 vs GOME retrievals over Europe
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NOy wet deposition zoom over Europe
Courtesy Frank Dentener
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Global NOx emission scenarios
0.0
40.0
80.0
120.0
160.0
200.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Europe North AmericaAsia + Oceania Latin America
Africa + Middle East Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR)
SRES A2 - World Total SRES B2 - World Total
Figure 1. Projected development of IIASA anthropogenic NOx emissions by SRES world region (Tg NO2 yr-1).
CLE
SRES A2
MFR
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Figure 4. Regional emissions separated for sources categories in 1990, 2000, 2030-CLE and 2030-MFR for NO x [Tg NO2 yr-1]
Regional NOx emissions19
9020
0020
30 C
LE20
30 M
FR
Europe:falling
Asia:rising
USA:~flat
Ships/aircraft:unregulated;may become
larger than anyregional source
by 2030
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Emission Changes 2030 CLE - 2000
Plots: Martin Schultz, MPI IIASA RAINS model: Markus Amann et al.
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Year 2000 Annual Zonal Mean Ozone (24 models)
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Year 2000Ensemble meanof 25 models
AnnualZonalMean
Annual TroposphericColumn
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Ensemble meanof 25 models
AbsoluteStandard Deviation
of 25 models
%Standard Deviation
of 25 models
Year 2000 Annual Mean O3
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Comparison of ensemble mean model with O3 sonde measurements
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Observed ±1SD
Model ±1SD
90-30°S 30°S-Eq 30°N-Eq 90-30°N
UT250 hPa
MT500hPa
LT750hPa
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2030 CLE - 2000 2030 MRF - 2000 2030 A2 - 2000
+5 ppbv -5 ppbv +10 ppbv
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-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Change in NOx emissions / Tg-N/yr
Ch
ang
e in
O3
bu
rden
/ T
g-O
3
Tropospheric O3 scales ~linearly with NOx emissions
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Radiative forcing implications
-500
0
500
1000
1500
mW
/ m
2
CO2 795 795 1035
CH4 116 0 141
O3 63 -43 155
CLE MRF A2
Forcings (mW m-2) 2000-2030 for the 3 scenarios:
-23% +37%
CO2
CH4
O3
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Impact of Climate Change on Ozone by 2030(ensemble of 9 models)
MeanMean - 1SD Mean + 1SD
Negative watervapour feedback
Positive stratospheric
influx feedback
Positive and negative feedbacks – no clear consensus
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Budgets ofmethane
andtropospheric
ozone
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S1 Tropospheric O3 budget
-5000
50010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000650070007500
CH
AS
ER
_CT
M
CH
AS
ER
_GC
M
FR
SG
C
GE
OS
-CH
EM
GF
DL
GM
ICC
M
GM
IDA
O
gm
igis
LL
NL
-IM
PA
CT
LM
DzI
NC
A
LM
DzI
NC
Ac
MO
ZE
CH
NC
AR
ST
OC
HE
M_H
adA
M3
ST
OC
HE
M_H
adG
EM
TM
4
TM
5
UL
AQ
UM
_CA
M
Mea
n
Sta
nd
ard
Dev
iati
on
Med
ian
Tg
O3/
yr
P L P-L D Sinf
19 Models reported O3 budgets
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Highest H2O+High Lightning NOx (8 TgN/yr)
Higher H2OHigher LNOx ?
Lower H2OLower LNOx ?
More complicated- other factors
CH4 lifetime / years
O3
chem
ical
loss
/ T
g-O
3 yr
-1
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90S Eq 90N
Tro
po
sp
her
ic H
2O
co
lum
n /
g(H
2O
) m
-2
Tropospheric water vapour in 6 GCMs
Differences of± 10% in tropics
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3000 ppb.h !!!
AOT40, May-June-July, mean model, ppb*hours
Courtesy Kjerstin Ellingsen
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Change in AOT40 (CLE)
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Change in AOT40 (MFR)
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Change in AOT40 (A2)
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Conclusions• Logistics:
– Large group participation – partly due to IPCC-AR4– Lot of work involved – relies on funding ‘goodwill’– Need well defined experiments and diagnostics– Central database and strict data format– Assume mistakes will be made in first attempts– Enforce deadlines if possible
• Science:– Multi-model ensemble allows uncertainties to be assessed– Sample large model parameter space– Get hints about the controls on internal model processes– Future work: – Water vapour, convection, lightning NOx, isoprene schemes– STE, biomass burning– Global HOx/NOx/NOy budgets, as well as O3 and CH4