Organization and guideline development April 2010 ACCC The Netherlands.
ACCC Project, 2010
description
Transcript of ACCC Project, 2010
ACCC Project, 2010
Water Resources under the
changing climate and adaptation
Dr. Guoqing WANG / 王国庆教授
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, MWR
Research Center for Climate Change, MWR
南京水利科学研究院
March 5, 2010, Beijing
—— 气候变化对水资源的影响及适应
Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化
Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型
Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价
Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策
Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题
Contents
Global Temperature / 全球气温变化
Global annual mean temperature: +0.74℃ / 年均气温升高0.74
The warmest decade: 1990s / 20 世纪 90 年代是最热的 10 年Recent 11 years rank among the 12 warmest years / 1860 年以来最热的 12 年有 11 年发生在 1995~ 2006
Temperature change in China / 中国气温变化
Similar rising trend to global temperature / 趋势与全球相似Temperature rise during the last 100yrs: 0.5~0.8℃ / 近 100年气温升高 0.5~0.8 ℃
Rising rate during the last 50yrs: 0.22 /10a / ℃ 近 50 年气温平均升率 0.22 /10a ℃
Precipitation change in China (降水变化)
Trend ratios of precipitation during 1951-2002
Western: Increase 西部增加Southern: Increase 南部增加
Increasing
Decreasing
Decreasing
Increasing
Northern: Decrease 北部减少Northeastern: Decrease东北减少
Changes in 60mins rainfall before and after 1980
Changes of extreme rainstorm events / 暴雨变化
Short duration rainfall intensity: Increasing / 暴雨强度增加 Kuanping, Shanxi: 1998.07, 1300mm/6-7hr Zhanjiang, Guangdong: 2007.08, 1188mm/24hr Rain
days of extreme rainstorms: Increasing / 极端降水日数增加
Trend rate of rain days of extreme rainstorms
667mm
118mm35mm
84%
12%4%
Annual runoff depth: 288mm 年径流深 288mmSurface water: 2737.5bm3
地表径流量: 2737.5bm3
Water Resources in China / 中国水资源
Mountain Areas (山丘区)
Plain areas(平原
区)
Overlap: 31.8 bm3
176.5 bm3
677.2 bm3
Ground water: 821.9bm3
地下径流量: 821.9bm3
82%18%
Characteristics of WR / 水资源特点
Uneven distribution in time and space/ 时空分布不均 : 80%
Low water occupation per capita/ 人均水资源量低: < 30%
Serious shortage: 400/668 cities , 水资源严重短缺 : Gap=40bm3, in Normal Year
Huge losses due to flooding and drought / 洪涝、干旱灾害损失巨 大: >GDP1%
多年平均降水量
Spatial distribution
空间分布
Temporal distribution
时间分布
Water Issues in China / 四大水问题
Flooding / 水多 Decreasing / 水少
Polluting / 水脏 Losing / 水混
1.9 3.7 9.1 7.6-0.8
-3.2
-33
-55.5
-4.8
-61.2
-40.1
-62.2
-30.9
-2.5 -2.2
-0.9-0.9
-77.9-76.6-80
-60-40-20
020
宜昌
汉口
大通
唐乃亥
花园口
利津
王家坝
吴家渡
观台
石匣里
响水堡
下会
张家坟
铁岭
江桥
哈尔滨
梧州
石角
竹歧
控制站
距平
(%)
黄河 海河
Changes in Recorded Runoff / 实测径流变化
Significant decreasing : Haihe River, Yellow River
显著减少:海河,黄河Slight changing: other rivers
轻微变化:其它河流
Decreasing rate of runoff during 1980-2004 comparing to that before 1980
Global Warming
Hydrological cycle
Sustainable utilization
Changes in rainfall
Climate change and Hydrological cycle气候变化与水文循环
(水资源的可持续利用)
Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化
Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型
Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价
Adaptative strategies / 气候变化适应对策
Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题
Contents
National Key Project (85-913-03-03 )
Social econom
ic datab
ase
Tributaries GCMs
Random weather model
Water balance models
Assessment system of water
Effect assessment
Adaptation measures
Hyd
ro-m
eteo
rolo
gic
Dat
abas
e
Study Catchments/ 研究区域:Tributaries of six big rivers
Assessment Models/ 评价模型 : Lumped Water Balance
Models / 集总式水量平衡模型
Assessment / 评价 : The future water
resources, based on outputs of 7
GCMs
Sub-area1
0
10
20
30
40
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968Time/month
Ru
no
ff/m
m
National Key Project (96-908-03-04 )
GCMs or RCM
(60km×60km)
Downscaling of P and T (30km×30km)
30km×30km grid based hydrological model
Spatial distribution and simulated discharge
Sensitivity analysis
GIS
database
Hydro
-meteorologic database
Study basins / 研究区域 : 4 big river basins
Assessment Models / 评价模型 : 30×30km grid based hydrologic
model
Assessment / 评价 : sensitivity analysis
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-20 -10 0 10 20
DP(%)
DR
(%)
- 2℃
- 1℃
0℃
1℃
2℃
P EP
Extension WaterWm , B
R
Free water storage, Sm
Rapid Q, Cs Slow Q, Cg
Discharge Q
E
Xin’anjiang Model新安江模型
Simplified model structure
5 parameters / 5 个参数Applied to Huaihe River / 应用到淮河流域
B
Wmm
Wm
F
f)
1(1
Wm
Wmm’
Wm’
f/F1
W0
P
Two Parameters Water Balance Model两参数水量平衡模型
P EP
Q
E SOIL MOISTURESOIL MOISTURE
Humid river basins / 湿润地区Hanjiang River, Gangjiang River / 汉江和赣江流域DC>80%
))(/)(tanh()()( tEPtPtEPctE
)/))()()1(tanh(())()()1(()( SCtEtPtStEtPtStQ
P T
Rain/Snow
EP
Snowfall
Rainfall
Accu-
SRunoff
SMRunoff
GFlow Soil moisture
Q
E
Snowmelt-based WBM考虑融雪的水平衡模型
Semi-arid or arid river basins / 干旱半干旱流域Consider snowmelt flow / 考虑融雪径流
ii
ssi PS
SKQ
max
1
iTT
TT
snsni SneKQ LH
Hi
1 iggi SKQ
mm
m
d IPII
PIWWP
IPIWWP
Q0
1
0max00
0max
00
11
max
22max
2221
max2221
WWWWWWdWd
WWWWdQ
SS
Sb
Study area: China 研究区域:中国 Assessment Model: VIC Assessment:
vulnerability
National Key Project (2001-BA611B-02-04)
GIS-based distributed hydrological model / 基于 GIS 的分布式水文模型Relationship between parameters and catchment indices / 下垫面要素Hydrological modeling for poorly gauged river basins / 无资料地区的应用
Flow generation :
Flow concentration :
b
t
CAL
P
LP
S
LLaT
Tq
DTT
P67.26.3
A2
2/
洪峰大小:
洪峰时间:b
t
CAL
P
LP
S
LLaT
Tq
DTT
P67.26.3
A2
2/
洪峰大小:
洪峰时间:
Key Technology1: PUB关键技术:缺资料地区的水文模拟
Auto-optimization combining experts knowledge / 数学自动优化与专家知识结合Simulation accuracy and optimization efficiency / 模拟精度与优化效率
X2
X(1)
X(0)
X(2)
A
X(3)
Rosenbrock method
X1
1...22
...............
2...22
2...12
2...21
)0()0()0()0(
)0(3
)0(3
)0(3
)0(3
)0(2
)0(2
)0(2
)0(2
)0(1
)0(1
)0(1
)0(1
dxdxdxx
dxdxdxx
dxdxdxx
dxdxdxx
nnnn
单纯形法
Key technology2: Parameters optimization关键技术:参数优化识别技术
Key technology3: downscaling关键技术:情景降尺度技术
Two statistical approaches / 两种统计降尺度途径
Double linear interpolation method / 双线性降尺度插值方法
Non-linear Lagrange interpolation method / 不等距拉格朗日三点插值方法
Similar temperature fields before and after downscaling from RCMS
Baseline Human-disturbedHuman-disturbed
Key technology 4: Contribution identification关键技术:径流归因识别技术
Two key issuesDetermination of baseline / 基准期的确定 : Cluster analysis method, Mann-Kendall method, etc Runoff naturalized method / 天然径流还原方法 : Hydrological simulation approach, VIC model, WB model
BHRT WWW
HNHRH WWW
BHNC WWW
%100
T
HH W
W
%100
T
CC W
W
Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化
Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型
Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价
Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策
Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题
Contents
Assessment approach 气候变化影响评价途径
Horizontally integrated
Verticallyintegrated
Assessment / 评价 Model
Impacts
Adaptation / 适应 Policy
Technology
Projected
Scenario / 情景 Projected
Hypothetical
More environmental侧重环境保护
More regional侧重区域
More global侧重全球
B1 B2
A1 A2
More economic侧重经济发展
Climate Scenario / 气候情景模式
( IPCC AR4, 2007 )
6.4℃
1.1℃
Temperature rise: 1.1- 6.4 / ℃ 21 世纪末气温升高 1.1- 6.4
Warmer globe / 一个更加温暖的地球
Temperature trends in 21th Century21 世纪全球气温变化趋势
Possible climate change in China21 世纪我国可能的气候变化
Precipitation: Increase in most areas, Decrease in Northern
China and North-eastern China before 2040 / 大多数地区降水增加,但华北和东北可能减少Temperature / 气温变化: 2030, 1.7℃; 2050, 2.2℃
Probability of flood and drought hazards would increase / 洪涝干旱灾害可能增加 The pattern of south-flood and north-drought would aggravate.
A2
s
cen
ario
Change in runoff distribution under the scenario A2
2071-2100年 A2 情景下的径流分布变化
Projected water resources distribution未来水资源分布变化
• Similar to that under scenario A2, exacerbating the instability of water
system / B2 情景下的水资源类似 A2 , 水资源系统可能更加不稳定
Change in runoff distribution under the scenario B2
2071-2100年 B2 情景下的径流分布变化
B2
sce
nario
Projected water resources distribution未来水资源分布变化
Sensitivity / 敏感性Sensitivity of hydrology to climate change is response degree
of hydrological variable to climate change. High response under
the same climate change means more sensitive to climate change
Cold region: Yilihe River
高寒山区:伊犁河Semi-arid region: Yellow
R
半干旱区:黄河
Semi-humid region: Huai
R
半湿润区:淮河Humid region: Dongjiang
R
湿润区:东江
Study basin研究流域
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性
T RISE: increases Spring discharge, decreases runoff in other seasons 气温升高降增加春季径流,减少其它季节径流量
Surface runoff: more sensitive to climate change 地表径流对气候变化更为敏感
Human activities: could decrease sensitivity of runoff 人类活动能够在一点程度上降低水资源对气候变化的敏感性
Yilihe River伊犁河
Yellow River黄河
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
降水变化(%)
径流量变化(
%)
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
0℃ +1℃ +2℃
+3℃
Precipitation change: result in larger runoff change than T does
对降水变化比对温度变化的响应更为敏感Same change range: P+ result in larger runoff change than P-
降水增加比减少对径流的影响更显著Arid region: more sensitive; while humid region less
干旱区对气候变化响应比湿润区更敏感
Huaihe River淮河
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
降水变化(%)
径流量变化(
%)
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
0℃ +1℃ +2℃
+3℃
Dongjiang River东江
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性
Sensitivity comparison of Hydro-variables不同水文变量敏感性比较
Response Law: similar between actual evaporation and soil moisture
实际蒸发和土壤湿度对气候变化的响应规律类似 P changes: Runoff, actual evaporation, soil moisture, (bigger->less)
径流、蒸发和土湿对降水变化的响应依次降低 T changes: Soil moisture, runoff, actual evaporation, (bigger->less)
土湿、径流和实际蒸发对气温变化的响应依次降低
大夏河
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
降水变化(%)
径流量变化
(mm
)
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
0℃ +1℃ +2℃
+3℃
大夏河年均值
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
降水变化(%)土壤含水量变化
(mm
)
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
0℃ +1℃ +2℃
+3℃大夏河年均值
-40
-20
0
20
40
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
降水变化(%)
实际蒸发量变化
(mm
)
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
0℃ +1℃ +2℃
+3℃
RUNOFF
径流
SOIL MOISTURE
土壤湿度
ACTUAL EVAPORATION
实际蒸发
Human activities are main reasons of runoff reduction in YR
人类活动是径流减少的主要原因Contribution of Climate change accounts for 39 %
气候变化影响占径流减少总量的 39 %
Identification of CC contribution (YRB)气候变化对径流历史变化的贡献评价
PeriodsReco-ed(108m3)
Simu-ed(108m3)
Total redu(108m3)
Climate-induced Human-induced
108m3 (%) 108m3 (%)
Baseline 237.5
1970-1979 148.5 198.5 89.0 39.0 43.82 50.0 56.18
1980-1989 172.7 217.6 64.8 19.9 30.67 44.9 69.33
1990-2000 95.3 181.1 142.2 56.4 39.64 85.8 60.36
1970-2000 138.8 199.5 98.7 38.0 38.53 60.6 61.47
Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化
Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型
Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价
Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策
Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题
Contents
Climate Change, IWRM and Resilience
气候变化与水资源一体化管理
Many climate change impacts are just extreme examples of existing challenges. / 气候变化的影响只是目前水资源压力基础上的极端情形
Water resources are already stressed due to economic growth, population pressure and lifestyles.
Many challenges not new, nor product of climate change alone. / 目前水资源短缺不是气候变化单一作用的结果
经济发展、人口增加、生活方式改变,已经使得水资源利用面临着巨大的压力
Flooding Flood management
W Pollution Green economic
W LosingSelf restoration + engineering
Water savingW Shortage
Integrated WR Management / 水资源一体化管理
水土流失 自我修复与水土保持
水污染 绿 色 经 济
水 多 洪 水 管 理
水 少 节 水 技 术
Water-Saving Society / 节水型社会
ChinaChina Developed Developed CountriesCountries
Consumed Water/ 10000GDP(RMB) 537 m537 m33
0.70.7~~ 0.8 0.8 0.40.4 -- 0.50.5
Index of water usage
4×World 4×World Mean valueMean value
The effective-utilization coefficient of agricultural irrigation water (灌溉水利用系数)
北京市高碑店污水处理厂
水 窖
Non-Traditional water sources / 非传统水源
• High cost / 高费用 .• Technology Support / 技
术支持Waste water treatment
污水处理Storm water harvest
雨洪资源利用Sea water desalination
海水淡化
Reservoirs / 水库
River dikes / 堤防
Flood retention areas / 滞洪区
Water transfer projects / 调水工程
Water Controlling Projects / 控制性工程
JingJiang dyke
Embankment
Three Gorge Reservoir Reservoirs: 87,000
已建水库: 87,000
Total storage capacity: 600 billion m3
总蓄水容量: 6000亿 m3
海河 Haihe river
淮河 Huaihe river
黄河 Yellow river
长江 Yangtze river
西线工程WL
中线工程ML 东
线工程EL
Water transfer project / 调水工程
Soil and water conservation / 水土保持
Re-grass / 退牧还草Reforestation / 更新造林Terrace construction / 梯田建设 Check dams / 淤地坝
Perfect policy, laws, and
regulations / 完善法律、法规和政策Public education / 公众教育
Different issues for different regions / 不同区域面临不同问题Different adaptation strategies for different regions / 不同区域的适应措施存在差异
Regional adaptation strategies / 区域适应对策
Principle / 原则
Key Regions
Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化
Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型
Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价
Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策
Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题
Contents
Uncertainty in Assessment /Uncertainty in Assessment / 不确定性不确定性
Scientific issues and further study进一步需要研究的科学问题
Improvements / Improvements / 改进改进
New scenario / 新情景新情景
Assessment model, especially for ungauged areas / 改进模型改进模型
EmissionScenario
GCMs RCMS AssessmentHM
Limitation of adaptation / Limitation of adaptation / 适应的局限性适应的局限性
More strategies at state level / 多集中在国家层面
Lack of regional adaptation strategies / 缺少区域有效措施
Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention
谢谢!谢谢!