ABN 14 078 030 752 Centre Capital – Australian Equities update Mark Folpp and Julian Beaumont ABN...
-
date post
21-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
3
Transcript of ABN 14 078 030 752 Centre Capital – Australian Equities update Mark Folpp and Julian Beaumont ABN...
ABN 14 078 030 752
Centre Capital – Australian Equities update
Mark Folpp and Julian Beaumont
ABN 14 078 030 752 AFS Licence Number 229988
November 2008
About IML
IML established in 1998
IML is a ‘value-style’ investment manager:
Less volatile portfolio than overall market
Prepared to deviate from index
Valuation not momentum based
Long-term portfolio positions
A boutique investment manager with over $4 Billion FUM
IML seeks to buy quality companies:
With a competitive advantage,
with recurring earnings,
run by capable management,
that can grow,
........and trade at a reasonable price.
Year Business Assets
Profit (R.O.E.)
Dividend Retained Earnings
1 100.00 10.00 5.00 5.00
2 105.00 10.50 5.25 5.25
3 110.25 11.00 5.50 5.50
4 115.75 11.60 5.80 5.80
5 121.55 12.20 6.10 6.10
6 127.65 12.80 6.40 6.40
7 134.05
Business 101
Time
ValueStock Price
Value of Company
Company value vs share price
Australian shares’ golden age
Five double-digit years in a row:
2007: 16%
2006: 24%
2005: 23%
2004: 28%
2003: 15%
Up 160% in five years (with divs.)
Best five-year period ever recorded
ASX 200 Acummulation IndexJanuary 2003 - October 2007
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Jan-
03Apr
-03
Jul-0
3Oct-
03Ja
n-04
Apr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct-04
Jan-
05Apr
-05
Jul-0
5Oct-
05Ja
n-06
Apr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct-06
Jan-
07Apr
-07
Jul-0
7Oct-
07
Source: Bloomberg
What’s a bear market, again?
Oh… so that’s what a bear market looks like
Source: Factset
ASX 200 Accumulation IndexOctober 2007 - 14 November 2008
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-
08
Feb-0
8
Mar
-08
Apr-0
8
May
-08
Jun-
08
Jul-0
8
Aug-0
8
Sep-0
8
Oct-08
Nov-08
Nowhere to hide
Source: Factset
S&P/ASX 300 Index - GICS Sector ReturnsOctober 31, 2007 - October 31, 2008
-8% -11% -13% -17%-24%
-31%-38%
-43%-48%
-55%-51%
-39%
-60-50-40-30-20-10
--102030
Health
Car
e
Telec
omm
unica
tions
Ser
vices
Consu
mer
Sta
ples
Energ
y
Info
rmat
ion T
echn
ology
Utilitie
s
ASX300
Fina
ncial
Mat
erial
s
Indu
stria
ls
Consu
mer
Disc
retio
nary
Prope
rty T
rusts
Bear markets in Australian shares since 1960
Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital Investors
ASX 300 Industrials vs. ASX 300 Resources3 - year returns to June 2008
ASX 300 Industrials vs ASX 300 Resources3 year Annualised Returns to June 2008
0.800
1.300
1.800
2.300
2.800
3.300
Jun
-05
Aug
-05
Oct
-05
Dec
-05
Feb
-06
Apr
-06
Jun
-06
Aug
-06
Oct
-06
Dec
-06
Feb
-07
Apr
-07
Jun
-07
Aug
-07
Oct
-07
Dec
-07
Feb
-08
Apr
-08
Jun
-08
ASX 300 Industrials ASX 300 Resources
+ 36% p.a.
+ 4% p.a.
ASX 300 Industrials vs. ASX 300 ResourcesFrom 1 July to 31 October 2008
ASX 300 Industrials vs. ASX 300 Resources 4 Months Returns to October 2008
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
30-Ju
n-08
12-Ju
l-08
24-Ju
l-08
05-A
ug-0
8
17-A
ug-0
8
29-A
ug-0
8
10-S
ep-0
8
22-S
ep-0
8
04-O
ct-08
16-O
ct-08
28-O
ct-08
ASX 300 Industrials ASX 300 Resources
-42% p.a.
-11% p.a.
Source: IRESS
Cautious on:
Property companies
Stocks exposed to discretionary spending
Financials
Resource stocks
Financially engineered vehicles
Looking for companies with:
Defensive businesses
Good balance sheets
Long track record
Resource Sector – IML’s view
Still cautious overall
Around 13% of the portfolio
Only holding good quality stocks
Still avoiding speculative stocks
Iron Ore Contract Pricing
Source: Bloomberg
Iron Ore Contract Price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
us$
/T
Iron Ore Contract Price
IML LT Price
Iron Ore
Source: Metal Bulletin
Global Iron Ore Demand and Supply
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f
MTpa
Total Seaborne Demand
Total Seaborne Supply
When the music stops! Mt Gibson Mining
Source: IRESS
Listed Property Sector
Correction was inevitable
Sector still faces challenges
More volatility expected
LPT gearing levels
0
8
15
23
30
38
45
1995
1996
1997
1998
1998
1999
2000
2001
2001
2002
2003
2004
2004
2005
2006
2007
%
0
8
15
23
30
38
45
%
Listed Property Trust sector Average Debt to Total Assets
Source: JP Morgan
Not a pretty picture – LPT Index10 years to October 2008
Source: IRESS
Financials
Avoiding investment banks
Only holding majors
• Limited exposure to US sub-prime
• Better positioned than overseas banks
• Market share increasing
The banks – rebuilding market share
Source: Commonwealth Bank of Australia
Australian Banks
But….
Bad debt provisions increasing
Negative impact from higher interest rates
‘De-facto’ capital raisings occurring
Further capital raisings likely
P/E 2008 (A)
Yield%
P/E 2009 (F*)
Yield%
Westpac 8.3x 8.7% 8.8x 8.8%
CBA 8.7x 8.6% 9.5x 8.6%
NAB 7.9x 10.3% 7.2x 10.3%
ANZ 7.7x 10.2% 7.4x 10.2%
Valuations – the banks
*Consensus estimates - Based on share prices at 17/10/2008
Valuation – portfolio versus market
P/E 09 Yield ‘09
IML Australian Share Fund 10.7x 6.6%
IML Industrial Share Fund 11.8x 7.2%
S&P/ASX300 9.7x 6.1%
IML figures as at 31/10/2008
Outlook for Industrial companies
Balance sheets mostly in good shape
Some sectors facing challenges
Valuations becoming attractive
Opportunities emerging
Some recent buys
Stock P/E (A) Yield (A) P/E (F) Yield (F)
Orica 9.4x 6.3% 8.7x 6.9%
Origin Energy 30.6x 1.6% 21.4x 2.8%
Sonic Healthcare 17.7x 4.0% 21.0x 4.2%
Brambles 14.6x 4.9% 11.5x 6.1%
QBE 10.3x 5.4% 9.3x 5.6%
Other core IML holdings
Stock P/E (A) Yield (A) P/E (F) Yield (F)
Amcor 13.5x 6.0% 11.4x 6.0%
Telstra 14.0x 7.0% 12.4x 7.0%
Crown 8.0x 12.5% 9.6x 10.2%
Transurban N/A 11.4% N/A 4%
Fosters 14.6x 4.8% 13.8x 5.0%
IML Funds v ASX 300
P/E 09 Yield %
Est 09
IM Australian
Share Fund
10.7x 6.5%
IM Industrial Share
Fund
11.8x 7.2%
ASX300 9.7x 6.1%
IML equity market outlook
More volatility expected
Commodity prices stretched
Valuations becoming more attractive
Buying opportunities emerging
Important information
While the information contained in this presentation has been prepared with all reasonable care, Investors Mutual Limited
accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions or misstatements however caused. This is general financial
product advice only and is not intended to constitute a securities recommendation. This information does not account for your
investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. Statements of opinion are those of IML unless otherwise
attributed. Except where specifically attributed to another source, all figures are based on IML research and analysis.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not indicative of future performance. Returns can be volatile, reflecting
rises and falls in the value of underlying investments. Potential investors should seek independent advice as to the suitability of
the Fund to their investment needs. The fact that shares in a particular company may have been mentioned should not be
interpreted as a recommendation to either buy, sell or hold that stock. Any commentary about specific securities is within the
context of the investment strategy for the given portfolio. Investors Mutual Limited is the issuer of the Investors Mutual
Australian Share Fund, Investors Mutual Industrial Share Fund, Investors Mutual Future Leaders Fund, Investors Mutual
Australian Smaller Companies Fund and Investors Mutual Diversified Value Fund. Applications can only be made on the form
in the current Product Disclosure Statement dated 1June 2006, or for Investors Mutual Diversified Value Fund, dated 21st
March 2005, or through IDPS products that include these Funds. The Product Disclosure Statement can be obtained by
contacting Investors Mutual or on www.iml.com.au. Potential investors should consider the Product Disclosure Statement
before deciding whether to invest, or continue to invest in the Funds.
The prospective P/E ratios and earnings forecasts referred to in this presentation constitute estimates which have
been calculated by IML's investment team based on IML's investment processes and research.
Centre CapitalClient Briefing
ABN 76 111 397 392 AFS Licence No. 308107
GVI Investment Update
From uncertainty to fundamentalsThe rising importance of dividends in total returns
November 2008
Valuations around the world
Source: FactSet October 31, 2008
NORTH AMERICAPE: 13.8xDY: 2.9%
UKPE: 7.2x
DY: 5.6%
EMUPE: 7.9x
DY: 6.0%
JAPANPE: 11.3xDY: 2.8%
HONG KONGPE: 8.3x
DY: 5.0%
SINGAPOREPE: 6.8x
DY: 5.5%
AUSTRALIAPE: 11.0xDY: 6.0%
Reasons behind the falls
Global financial crisis now impacting real economies
US, UK, EU and Japan close to or in recession.
Global growth slowing as spending contracts and credit remains
scarce.
Investor confidence has collapsed.
Market being driven by fear and indiscriminate selling.
Hedge funds contributing to volatility with forced selling.
Sectors - Where are the greater risks?
Financials - difficult operating environment
Consumer discretionary - Consumers lower
discretionary income
Is going overseas that different?
The CommSec
“Mums & Dads” IndexGlobal Equivalents
Telstra Vodafone Group, Telenor & Telekom Austria
CBA BNP, Santander & UOB
Woolworths Tesco & Walmart
Qantas Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific
AMP ING, Zurich & ABN Amro
Coles Carrefour, Sainsbury
Tabcorp William Hill & Rank Group
Suncorp-Metway Credit Agricole, Unicredit and BNP Paribas
IAG AXA, Royal and Sun Alliance
Ways GVI aims to lower risk
Portfolio substantially hedged back into $AUD
Portfolio can hold up to 20% cash
No direct emerging markets exposure
Only hold stocks that make profits & pay dividends
Non-benchmark approach to investing
GVI - Non-benchmark approach
As at September 30, 2008 Source: MSCI, GVI
0.0%
4.4%
9.8%
10.0%
21.0%
54.8%
11.3%
8.4%
4.1%
2.3%
60.5%
13.4%
CASH
Asia/Pacific Ex Japan
United Kingdom
Japan
Europe
North America
MSCI World Index AUD Hedged % GVI Portfolio Weight %
GVI - Non-benchmark approach
As at September 30, 2008 Source: MSCI, GVI
0.0%
4.3%
4.9%
6.4%
9.1%
10.3%
10.5%
10.6%
10.8%
11.6%
21.6%
11.3%
12.2%
17.8%
6.6%
6.6%
3.4%
8.5%
0.0%
16.1%
11.9%
5.6%
Cash
Telecommunication Services
Utilities
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Health Care
Information Technology
Industrials
Energy
Financials
MSCI World Index AUD Hedged % GVI Portfolio Weight%
Investment opportunities
Telecom, utilities, and pharma sector
KPN and Telefonica – delivering consistent shareholder value
E.On, GDF and RWE – limited impact on EPS during recession
Johnson and Johnson has a highly diversified product mix with market
positions.
All of these companies have the following in common
Dependable management
Strong cash flow generation
Clear vision business model
Good cash returns to shareholders
Investment opportunities
Energy Focus Group
Market Value Historical Average FCFCurrent
Dividend Est. Div FY0 Interest 1 Year % Price to FCF -DivCompany Name (USD) PE PE FY1 EPS Growth Yield Yield Yield ROE Cover Price Change Book Gap
Valero Energy Corp. 9,861 2.3 4.0 -26.0 33.0 2.7 31.0 24.6 19.7 -74.2 0.5 6.0Technip S.A. 2,991 17.6 5.6 110.4 25.5 5.7 7.2 5.5 6.0 -65.1 1.0 -1.1Marathon Oil Corp. 18,867 4.2 3.8 -2.7 12.1 3.8 4.0 23.3 91.3 -57.9 0.9 3.2CNOOC Ltd 35,445 7.5 5.0 18.4 5.8 4.5 6.9 25.8 26.0 -53.5 1.8 -4.7OMV AG 9,685 4.7 3.7 3.8 -3.4 5.0 5.7 20.9 13.1 -49.5 0.9 3.5Repsol YPF S.A. 22,254 5.5 5.5 -4.4 6.6 5.8 7.8 17.7 13.1 -46.3 0.9 -8.8ConocoPhillips 73,169 6.2 3.9 16.3 19.2 3.7 3.9 13.9 23.6 -43.6 0.8 -8.6Galp Energia SGPS S.A 8,589 8.6 13.3 -20.6 6.4 4.0 3.9 35.1 28.0 -42.9 2.8 -7.4StatoilHydro ASA 59,020 8.2 5.8 14.7 11.8 7.6 7.8 25.6 45.2 -35.2 2.0 -1.1Occidental Petroleum Corp. 40,826 7.4 4.8 13.3 9.0 2.1 2.7 24.1 26.3 -33.0 1.6 1.3Total S.A. 115,452 6.8 6.3 0.5 8.1 5.3 6.3 30.9 15.7 -29.3 2.0 0.3ENI S.p.A. 82,799 6.1 5.6 1.4 3.6 7.8 8.4 25.2 252.9 -28.4 1.5 0.3Woodside Petroleum Ltd 18,948 21.2 11.4 -36.4 -0.6 2.6 4.7 27.3 66.3 -23.2 5.4 1.9Chevron Corp. 149,418 7.7 5.9 6.5 6.1 3.4 3.6 25.6 195.3 -21.1 1.8 0.7Fred. Olsen Energy 2,148 10.3 6.0 52.5 -5.6 11.3 13.1 34.7 13.6 -20.7 3.5 -9.2BP PLC 146,781 6.8 5.2 7.6 7.7 8.9 6.9 23.4 10.5 -18.8 1.5 2.7Exxon Mobil Corp. 369,545 9.5 7.8 1.9 10.4 2.0 2.2 34.5 177.2 -18.5 3.0 0.6Santos Ltd. 5,586 17.7 14.2 3.7 -0.5 2.9 3.0 15.2 6.4 6.4 2.5 8.7
What do we look for in stocks?
Strong Business
Attractive Valuation
StrongManagement
Proven track record
Ability to grow shareholder value
Clear vision
Competitive advantage
Strong business model
Consistent and predictable earnings
Strong balance sheet
Ability to grow earnings
and dividends over time
Companies we invest in
Portfolio remains attractively valued
P/E ’FY1Dividend Yield
’FY1
GVI Global Industrial Share Fund* 9.3x 5.7%
MSCI (World Free Index) 13.7x 3.7%
S&P/ASX 300 (Australia) (2009) 11.0x 6.0%
As at October 31, 2008 * Indicates GVI forecasts
Source: Figures based on GVI research and data from Morgan Stanley Research
Dividends – the power of compounding
Dividend growth stocks outperform
Source: Ned Davis Research - Returns based on monthly equal-weighted geometric average of total returns of S&P 500 reconstituted monthly
Historical total returns of stocks in S&P 500 1972 - 2006
11.00%10.30%
7.20%
3.60%
2.40%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Dividend Growersand Initiators
All Dividend PayingStocks
Dividend Payerswith No Change in
Dividends
Dividend Cutters orEliminators
Non-DividendPaying Stocks
GVI –Dividend Yield Dispersion 2008
25%
43%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Yield < 3% 3% - 6% Yield > 6%
% o
f P
ortf
olio
Val
ue
As at September 30, 2008 Source: GVI
Balance sheet strength
Source: FactSet / GVI September 30, 2008
Outstanding High QualityVery High Quality
Balance Sheet Quality
31%
25%
43%
Net Cash or Int. Cover > 30x Int. Cover 10x - 30x Int. Cover 3x - 10x
Market outlook and GVI’s strategy
Market uncertainty and volatility likely to continue
Businesses with strong balance sheets and cash flows will
over the long-term outperform
Opportunities emerging given indiscriminate selling
Cash flow generation is key to a company’s ability to
pay dividends
License information & Disclaimer
Treasury Group Investment Services Limited (“TIS”) is the responsible entity for the GVI Global Industrial Share Fund (the “Fund”). Applications can only be made on the form in the current Product Disclosure Statement dated 1 June 2006, or through IDPS products that include this Fund. The Product Disclosure Statement can be obtained by contacting Global Value Investors www.gvi.com.au Potential investors should consider the Product Disclosure Statement before deciding whether to invest or continue to invest in the Funds.
While the information contained in this presentation has been prepared with all reasonable care, Global Value Investors Limited (GVI) and Treasury Group Investment Services Limited (TIS) accept no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions or misstatements however caused. This is not personal advice and is not intended to constitute a securities recommendation. This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, particular needs or financial situation. Statements of opinion are those of GVI and TIS unless otherwise attributed. Except where specifically attributed to another source, all figures are based on GVI and TIS research and analysis.
TIS has also appointed the staff of Investors Mutual Limited (IML) as authorised representatives to provide general product advice in relation to this Fund. As the licensee, TIS will be responsible for any financial services provided by TIS on behalf of GVI, and for the conduct of GVI and IML staff in their capacity as authorised representatives of TIS.
This presentation is given by an authorised representative of TIS.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not indicative of future performance. Returns can be volatile, reflecting rises and falls in the value of underlying investments. Potential investors should seek independent advice as to the suitability of the Fund to their investment needs. The fact that shares in a particular company may have been mentioned should not be interpreted as a recommendation to either buy, sell or hold that stock.
The prospective P/E ratios and dividend yields referred to in this presentation constitute estimates which have been calculated by GVI’s investment team based on GVI’s investment processes and research.