AAPA Safety Briefing

Martin Eran-Tasker

Technical Director

Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

10h COSCAP-NA

Steering Committee

Guilin, China

13-15 April 2010

Overview

• Asia Pacific aviation

• Current challenges

• Safety

• AAPA efforts

AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

• Regional trade association

• Current members include 15 major

international airlines based in Asia

Pacific

• Open to all scheduled international

airlines based in Asia Pacific region

• Committed to promoting sustainable

growth of the aviation industry serving

both passenger and freight needs

• Permanent secretariat headquartered in

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

• Representation in Washington and

Brussels

always open to new members

• Diverse geographic region

• Home to 4 billion people

- 62% of the world’s population

• Generates 27% of global GDP

• Wide range of income levels

• Dynamic economies leading the

global recovery

• Aviation widely recognised as a key contributor to economic and social development

Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific Aviation

Data: 2009 Estimate Source: Combined AAPA + non-AAPA airlines GMT+5 to GMT+12

US$ 128 billion revenue

647 million passengers

421 million domestic

226 million international

15 million tonnes of cargo

4,300 aircraft

Asia Pacific carriers overall market share:

29% of global passenger traffic

40% of global cargo traffic

Improving global economic outlook, led by

developing Asian economies

• Rebuilding damaged balanced sheets, working towards

profitability

• Aviation projected to lose in 2009 USD 9.4b with USD

2.8b in 2010

• Fuel price remains volatile

• Future aviation growth cautiously optimistic

Airlines response to the downturn

• Trimmed route networks and capacity in response to lower demand

• Implemented wide range of measures to reduce staff costs, retrenchment as a last resort

• Reduced utilisation, grounded surplus aircraft, some deferrals of new deliveries

• Conserve cash, strengthen balance sheet

• Working with industry partners to reduce unnecessary costs

Airlines focused on survival whilst

preserving ability to respond to the upturn

Future growth postponed

Significant implications for investment

and capacity management, throughout

the value chain

Loss of two years of previously anticipated growth

Source: IATA

Long term growth prospects still bright

Source: Airbus

Asia Pacific’s share of world traffic

will keep on growing

Safety

Asia Pacific: regulatory perspectives

• Diverse region: multiple governments and regulators

• Need for multilateral cooperation

• Harmonisation is more about sharing best practices before legislating, not about resolving differences after unilaterally imposed regulations

• Positive bias towards consensus, but sometimes slows the process

• Institutional framework remains fragmented, although APEC and ASEAN do touch on aviation policy issues

Asia Pacific still lacks bloc negotiating power

Safety

• ICAO Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme

- Low regional compliance to ICAO Annexes

• FAA International Aviation Safety Assessment Programme

- Downgrade to Cat 2 – Indonesia & Philippines

- Others under consideration

• EC Safety Assessment of Foreign Aircraft (SAFA)

• EU Operational ban – “Blacklisting”

• Increase in regional ramp inspections

• Safety Management Systems – Jan 09

• Media reporting and perceptions

• One of the safest years in aviation history

• One major accident for every two million flights

• 25% fewer than the average for recent years

• One third involved freighter aircraft

• One third occurred during the approach and landing

phase

• One quarter were due to runway over-runs

• Only one major accident involving a carrier based in the

Asia Pacific region

Observations: Safety Performance in 2009

Aviation Safety – Media Focus

Global Safety Performance Review

Industry Safety Record

Western-built jet aircraft

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*

Major Accidents 18 18 15 14 17 12 2

Accident Rate^ 0.78 0.76 0.61 0.52 0.63 0.46 -

Fatal Accidents 5 8 8 7 10 9 1

Fatalities 235 757 549 576 396 414 90

^ per million sectors

* Year to date 5 April

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ma

jor A

ccid

en

t R

ate

s (

pe

r m

il se

cto

rs)

Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates by Operator Region 2001 - 2009

3-year moving averages

World IATA North America Europe Asia Pacific AAPA

Safety performance – by operator region

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ma

jor A

ccid

en

t R

ate

s (

pe

r m

il se

cto

rs)

Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates Asia Pacific Regional Breakdown 2001- 2009

3-year moving averages

Asia Pacific total AAPA P.R. China India Others

Safety performance – ASPAC region

AAPA Efforts

AAPA Safety Strategy

• Enhance safety in the Asia Pacific region

– senior management commitment, SMS, cost-effective training

packages/technology, just culture, language proficiency, avoid duplication

• Engage regulators and industry safety stakeholders

– Encourage effective oversight, support the establishment of a regional

safety regulatory body, forums and dialogue sessions

– Encourage effective and timely safety investigations

• Safety data management and analysis

– Develop key safety performance indicators, analytical tools, threat and

error management, and risk management assessment tools

• Communicate on regional safety performance and action plans

– Act as a regional safety spokesman and offer a regional viewpoint

AAPA Safety Focus

• Flight Operations Safety Working Group

- Meets twice per year

- Comprises Heads of Safety

- Open door policy to ASPAC carriers

• Data sharing, lessons learnt , review of incidents and

causal factors

• Cabin Safety Task Force - new

• Safety Management Systems implementation

• Safety surveys

• Regional risk assessment

AAPA Safety Focus 2009/2010

• Wildlife hazards

- Cost industry USD 1.5b per annum

- Problematic airports – DEL – PEN – SGN –BKK

- Need for a regional forum

• TCAS RA

• Ground safety

• Runway Safety - Need for a regional forum

• Developing a “Just culture” implementation best

practice document

• Safety Performance indicators

• Asia Pacific Aviation Safety Seminar 29-30 Sep 2010

- Venue – Manila - Host Philippines Airlines

AAPA Projects

Safety Performance Indicators

• Better manage operational safety performance and

reduce associated costs

• Identify, document, and measure “leading edge”

safety performance metrics

• Proactive methodology to enable timely identification

of escalating risk

• Safety performance management tool

• Applicable to all SMS Stakeholder organizations

• Safety Performance Indicators pilot

- Philippine Airlines + 1

Finally

Aviation remains the safest mode

of transportation

• Aviation is at the heart of global economic development

• Asia Pacific aviation maintains a very good safety record

• Need to strengthen regional safety oversight and make better use of available regulatory resources

• Acceptable levels of safety performance can only be achieved through transparency, collaboration and cooperation

• Asia Pacific carriers safety performance continues to improve and is comparable to industry standards.

• Strong reservations about unilateral imposition of operational

bans on airlines, and effects of category downgrading of

national authorities

www.aapairlines.org

Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

9/F Kompleks Antarabangsa

Jalan Sultan Ismail

Kuala Lumpur 50250

MALAYSIA

Tel: +60 3 2145 5600

Fax: +60 3 2145 2500

Ground Safety

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Others

Aircraft-to-Aircraft

FOD

Aircraft-to-Facilities

Aircraft-to-GSE

Loading

Aircraft-to-Vehicles

Number of Incidents

Typ

es

Ground Incidents by Type(33rd vs 34th FOSWG)

Jul - Dec 2009 Jan - Jun 2009

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

DEL SFO JNB BOM LAX MXP CDG AMS ANC FRA

Inci

de

nt

Ra

tes

(pe

r 1

,00

0 s

ect

ors

)

Airport

Ground Incidents by Airport

TCAS - RA

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00

KUL

HKG

SIN

TPE

LAX

SFO

Rates (per 1,000 sectors)

FIR

/ A

ero

dro

me

TCAS Incident Rates by FIR

Bird Hazards

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

SIN

LHR

BKK

PVG

PEN

CGK

HAN

SGN

TAO

DEL

Rates (per 1,000 sectors)

Air

po

rts

Non-Damage Bird Strike Incident Rates by Airport

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40

SIN

KUL

HKT

FRA

JFK

Rates (per 1,000 sectors)

Air

po

rts

Damage Bird Strike Incident Rates by Airport

Bird Hazards

• A number of airports in the region demonstrated

consistently high bird strike rate:

DEL PEK MNL

SGN BKK CGK

PEN