ยานยนต์ไฟฟ้า ศักยภาพและ ......•Sales 1,041,739 1.05...
Transcript of ยานยนต์ไฟฟ้า ศักยภาพและ ......•Sales 1,041,739 1.05...
ยานยนต์ไฟฟ้า: ศักยภาพและอัจฉริยภาพของประเทศไทย
นายศุภรัตน์ ศิริสุวรรณางกูร
ที่ปรึกษาบริหารอาวุโส
บริษัท โตโยต้า มอเตอร์ ประเทศไทย จ ากัด
วันที่ 3 กรกฎาคม 2562
START YOUR IMPOSSIBLE
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2019F …
20XX
Thousands
Production
Domestic Sales
Export
Y1998Tom-Yum Goong
Y2011TH-Flood
JP-Tsunami
Y2014TH-Political
Crisis
Export2018Export 53%
Challenge to 3 Million units in 20XX
Domestic
Y2009Hamburger
3rd Milestone
3 Million
2nd Milestone
2 Million
1st Milestone
1 Million
2018 2019 (Forecast)
• Production 2,167,694 2.15 Mil. units
• Sales 1,041,739 1.05 Mil. units
• Export 1,140,640 1.10 Mil. units
THAI AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY SITUATION
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Production 2019 (Jan-May)
473,268
48%
522,689
52%
Export Domestic
Production 2019 (Jan-May)995,957 units
Domestic Export
Source:Automotive Industry Club 3
THAI AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY SITUATION
Domestic Sales 2019 (Jan-May)
Domestic Sales 2019 (Jan-May)438,025 units
Pickup
Passenger car
Source : Automotive Industry Club4
THAI AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY SITUATION
171,501
39%
266,524
61%
PC CV
Passenger Car
Commercial Car
Export 2019 (Jan-May)
Export 2019 (Jan-May)462,239 units
Pickup
Passenger car
Source : Automotive Industry Club5
THAI AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY SITUATION
163,515
35%
298,724
65%
P-Car P/U & PPV
P-CarP/U & PPV
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GLOBAL PRODUCTION
Source : Automotive Industry Club
27.80
11.31
9.73
5.17 5.124.10 4.03
2.88 2.822.27 2.16 2.02 1.77 1.60 1.55 1.35 1.34
Production 2018 (Jan-Dec) = 2,167,694 units
No. 11th ranking in the WorldNo. 5th ranking in ASIANo. 1st ranking in ASEAN
Global Production 2018 (Jan-Dec)
= 95,634,593 units
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GLOBAL SALES
Source : Automotive Industry Club
28.04
17.66
5.274.40
3.832.78 2.69 2.57 2.12 2.04 2.01 1.89 1.45 1.32 1.07 1.06 1.04 0.68 0.61 0.58
Sales 2018 (Jan-Dec) = 1,040,000 unitsNo. 17th ranking in the World
No. 6th ranking in ASIANo. 2rd ranking in ASEAN
Global Sales 2018 (Jan-Dec)
= 90,280,000 units
- Projected Alternative Light-Duty Vehicle Sales -(During 2000 – 2050)
Alternative Energy Vehicles are on the move and will increase rapidly beyond 2020
MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES
Source: IEA, 2016 8
Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB) - MoEN
Source: MoEN
Target plan under TIEB, expected to have LDV Stock~1.2 million units in 2036
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GLOBAL BEV SITUATION
Annual global EV sales (LDV)
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Annual global light duty vehicle sales
By 2040, 54% of new car sales will be electric
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Electric
Vehicle Outlook 2019
GLOBAL BEV SITUATION
China, the U.S. and Europe make up over 60%
of the global EV market in 2040.
Annual global EV sales by market
11Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Electric
Vehicle Outlook 2019
GLOBAL BEV SITUATION
BEV sales will be leading by China, Europe and U.S.
Short & Long-term EV sales penetration by country
12Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Electric
Vehicle Outlook 2019
GLOBAL BEV SITUATION
Global passenger EV sale by region
13Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Electric
Vehicle Outlook 2019
GLOBAL BEV SITUATION
Global passenger EV sale by drivetrain
14Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Electric
Vehicle Outlook 2019
GLOBAL BEV SITUATION
Cumulative passenger EV, electric bus and electric truck sales
15Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Electric
Vehicle Outlook 2019
• EV starts from 2018 with 1% annual growth rate till 1.2 million EVs in 2036
• EV targeted to replace gasoline car
THAILAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY PLAN (2015) - EEP
Source: EPPO
heat
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CHARACTERISTICS OF ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES
Source: TDEM17
HV/PHVs
Short-distance commuter vehicles
Travel distance
Fuel Electricity Gasoline, diesel, biofuels, CNG, synthetic fuels, etc. Hydrogen
Home deliveryvehicles
EVs
HVs
PHVs
FC buses
FCVs
Ve
hic
le s
ize
Passenger carsRoute buses
Personal mobility
EVsFCVs
Home delivery trucks
Full-size trucks
Route buses(Public Transportation)
Energy source of vehicle will be diversified depended on applicable usage conditions.
HV & PHV: Wide-use / EV: Short-distance/ FCV: Medium-to-long distance
TOYOTA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Relevant Fuel based on Vehicle Size x Travel Distance
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DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT GENERATION VEHICLES
We will continue launching more HVs while accelerating development
of next-generation vehicle technology
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation 19
ICE >> BEV (PART COMPONENTS)
Part suppliers would have impact
from changing ICE to BEV
Gasoline vehicle
All-Electronic vehicle
ICE
(3,000 parts)
BEV
-5%
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Assemblers(Car 18 companies)
2nd & 3rd Tier Supplier(1,137 companies)
TH Auto Industry
8%
Thai GDPManufacturing
Source:
Thai Automotive Institute
Otherssectors
1st Tier Supplier(462 companies)
100,000 employees
250,000 employees
175,000 employees
THAI AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY AND CONTRIBUTION IN GDP
Contr
ibute
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Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
HISTORY OF BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS
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ALL SOLID STATE BATTERY
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation 23
BATTERY PRICE TREND
The volume weighted
average battery pack fell 85%
from 2010-2018, reaching
an avg. of $176/kWh
Every doubling of cumulative
volume, 18% reduction in price
and the price of an average
battery pack to be $94/kWh by
2024 and $62/kWh by 2030
24Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Electric
Vehicle Outlook 2019
TOYOTA’S CORE COMPONENTS
Core components enable the development of various
electrified vehicles (HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCEV)
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation 25
SUMMARY
Readiness of Electrified Vehicle in Thailand depends on following key factors:
Charging station◦ Currently, located mainly in BKK
◦ About 1,200 stations are operating with low usage
Infrastructure◦ Electrical design and installation
◦ Charging standards
◦ Safety standards
◦ EV Load
Battery Technology◦ Cost x Driving distance
Fuel/Alternative fuel price◦ Fuel price vs. Electricity cost
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HYBRID VEHICLE
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BEV MOVEMENT
The C-HR and IZOA will be the first BEVs to launch in China under Toyota brand sales on the new models are slated to start from 2020.
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TOYOTA BEV:
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
BEV MOVEMENT
TOYOTA Future BEV:
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FT-EV I
Compact electric vehicle
2009 North American International Auto Show
FT-EV II
Compact electric vehicle
The 42nd Tokyo Motor Show 2011
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
BEV MOVEMENT
TOYOTA Future BEV:
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Toyota i-ROAD
Ultra-compact, two-seater electric vehicle
The 83rd Geneva International Motor Show
FT-EV III
Compact electric vehicle
The 42nd Tokyo Motor Show 2011
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
BEV MOVEMENT
TOYOTA Future BEV:
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Toyota i-TRIL Concept Car
Small, agile, and urban-friendly vehicles
Geneva International Motor Show 2017
Toyota Concept-i
Making the future of mobility tangible
2017 International CES
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
BEV MOVEMENT
TOYOTA Future BEV:
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Toyota Concept-i RIDE
Universal compact mobility vehicle
The 45th Tokyo Motor Show 2017
Toyota Concept-i WALK
Walking area mobility vehicle
The 45th Tokyo Motor Show 2017
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
BEV MOVEMENT
33
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
TOYOTA Active rollout of BEVs:
BEV MOVEMENT
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BEVs Sale in Thailand 2019:
FCV MOVEMENT
Sale volume of FCV (as of Sep 2018):
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Total : 7,200 units
Japan: 2,620 units
(launched in Dec`14)
USA: 4,200 units
(launched in Oct`15)
Europe: 350 units (launched in Sep`15)
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
FCV MOVEMENT
36
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
FCV MOVEMENT
Current Mirai Price & Incentive:
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Actual price : ~7 Million JPY
Govt. incentive : ~2 Million JPY
Local govt. incentive*: ~1 Million JPY (Depend on each local govt. policy) *Tokyo
Hydrogen Price
~1,100 Yen/Kg
Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
FCV VEHICLE
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Source:
Toyota Motor Corporation
SUMMARY
Future direction of vehicle technology is moving forward to xEV◦ MAAS (Mobility As A Service)
◦ CASE (Connectivity Autonomous Sharing Electrify)
◦ Thailand will be the hub of EV production in ASEAN
BOI Application Submission Status for PHEV & BEV
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TOYOTA
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