Academic Focus bilndsudu~laiub~iau1~an15b03~1 Brexit ~IUM&RSUSOU 1 3

bbua~?qnisbqs'ai : Hard Brexit 5

w?o Soft Brexit

wansawurasrmqnis~ Brexit

i ads r~wmu i9n t ig

M ? ~ n y u ~ a n ~ i . r ~ u m i u a ~ ~ i ~ w w ~ ~ n ~ ~ ~ o s r 3 ~ Brexit niuwi%~Ci

n ~ z u ~ u m s o o u ~ a a o n e i n a w n i w q ~ s ~ a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u w ~ ~ n i s ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a d u

ilz8naiu~n$aulwaaiiqlss~"1q T(ilu~awiraeii9$~n1uwa"~o1n

m s ~ o n k ~ ~ ~ ~ E i i ~ ~ ~ ~ a w ~ i ~ ~ i ~ i ~ n s ~ ~ a i u ~ ~ a u ~ ~ ~ i u u 2560

d d i u u i d~l6afi~naiu8unaaul~n'u~niiusn1wi~uia

n~si~la i ru iCns~4undi~xin i d a . r e i n w s ~ ~ ~ ~ u q n a ~ ~ n ~ ~ u u

(Conservative Party) m u ~ 6 n i s s d " i v a ~ u i ~ ~ w ~ s ~ i L B ] ~ ~ a i u i ~ c ~ n s a ~

du.rCi~~inlUslniln"~i~~sd"ild~7nqmani~~uau (Hang Padiament)

n~riw55nl(il1n"~iluqCiauin uCiiiilunaiiouiwss~a~TnGQuu

or~d~u~aiaun"sJwssna~niwdsza1^5~~wu (Democratic 3.4 I

Unionist Party) ~ i n d s r ~ ~ ~ o < u ~ u n " 6 ~ n i u uafloinu MWIW-I$~~~

9 nsrLLan~~dun~a9o in~nu i~dszbw~~uq~~~. j ;~n l~a9dsza lu~

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us.mwniwyTsr~ i n ~ ~ f i ~ $ u ~ r r m ~ d ~ ~ u ~ u i n a ~ ~ w ~ ~ n ~ s f i u ~ n a'iGn"aa7ni.s kik nis~rJ$uu~~da~nfq~qlw~1un5"qd dauozd~wnnszwuia dllinalu'aul'snlra'l~b'wu'lw~s u i u i d s a ~ w a l a i i i a r ~$uwanszwu h u n v L ~ ~ ~ M ? ~ L w s w ~ ~ ~ B http://www.parliament.go.thAibrary

nisn"i ~~~n~ ias3nCn iun"u ia 'hJ

niwi 1 wan15asdsu"tri'bl~ Brexit

Source: Btoomberg retrieved from https://w.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-referendum/

dmida5ud 29 i iu~nu 2560 UI~LMLS~I w6 ~n"61~iiunism1uuim 50 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ " S ~ Q Q I ~ E I U E I U

d u w f i ~ o v a u u n h a a n ~ i n a ~ s l ~ w ~ ~ s d a ~ ~ ~ ~ $ u w i ~ n i s {qd n~s~osairAaaanoinn~s~$uaui~n

a~mqbsdm~a~uimm 50 v a ~ a u " S ~ ~ q i ~ a u a ~ u ozl6baaisn 2 il ~~w~n~iim3v,u(liubaa1bosoiaan~d

a m s i a a ~ ~ ~ ~ n s o z a a m i n ~ g a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ i ~ n ~ s I u ~ u d 29 iju~clu 2562 (iiiianu, 2560)

$46 s l iuwr i Jn i s~hnszuaun~sa iaano inas / ln iwqIsdad i~~~uin uiilmsri buu'

ln"dszni~~Bank~a;?rfluaw~i"~~ai~~~nslua"ud 8 ijquiuu 2560 ~dew%dorah-rnaiu~u"u~~Sq

lGn"~nis~~~sin~sanni)inau~~nsliwva~~g ~ 3 a Brexit u ~ i n l i u n n ~ u ~ ~ u i i w a n i s ~ ~ a n k ~ d a a n u ~

n a " u ~ ~ ~ u l e l a d i ~ d u i ~ ~ ~ ~ s ~ i uUl~in~3'Jlj InuwssnayinGiiuu (Conservative Party) mulinisCi

vaauiqmaai I ~ ~ ~ u d $ ~ I u a n ~ I ~ ~ ~ w s s n ~ u . l i ~ o ~ ~ ~ w s s n ~ ~ s ~ ~ u (Labour Party) u ~ n l u

~da~oinnz~uud$qluan~iilifiq 326 d (d&lu~niiqn~viiM"d~un 650 n i s d o ~ l ~ i d u ~ d a u m

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dmmlu?m~wadez~nkq i~~a~n" kM'i~~ws~may&d~u~6ad~d~u~aiaun"uwssnawniwdsz"111~~~u

(&momtic unionist Party) dijnzuuu 10 ~ $ ~ I U ~ ~ I I U ~ I S Q ~ ~ W S S ~ ~ ~ I ~ arii~biimiu winGpanzuuu w , 4.: 1 - 4 4

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~bium"aun"u~~wwi~nis~o5ili~amna9 Brexit du19L~bs~i L B I ~ 6adni5~Gaanuib8ubruu Hard Brexit

~3o6?widu!qnii? l n u d ~ ~ m ~ 6 0 ~ n i ~ ' L ~ ~ m ~ i n i ~ ~ ~ u u SingLe Market (nix~umaim~Ru?) n"uwiqa~ad

u iu ruz~~u?Cu~ozuabo~o iaann~6ad~aw~wba~ ~?u8~1i6ssni~iiu~3u1~n"u~udszui~va~~~

diriu.raiYuiuiJoqGu unrzd6iuig~atiiii~~ualG~dozli~aulGwi~aw~ivai~i4n~~os~imi~Ganna~d

6aiotniiltijiu ~ r r s i z ~ i n u a u i i o ~ i i l G i n ~ a i u d ~ z ~ w ~ l u n ~ u a ~ n i ~ ~ T ~ d 6 a ~ n i ~ a a n o i n n i ~ ~ ~ u

a u i 9 n a n n i w q ~ s d b u u (Forbes Thailand, 2560) h d ~ ~ ~ i n i r ~ d s n R o r l ~ l n " b ~ u l ~ m i % ~ w " 6 d w uia~m-in LUG l t i ~ i m I ? ~ d ~ z n a u f i U ~ ~ s ~ n m K u ~ ~ a z J ~ w i i ~ q 7 d n i T n ~ ~ ~ i u 1 UI.IL~UII LUU n~4m.1

doz~-l~u~u~m~aud~z~wn~u,siuzui~nf~uun~ L L ~ ~ L ~ U M ~ I ~ I S L ~ ~ ~ Brexit i a l d ~6udoin~qncriju U$ w ~~~ndlmw~. r luT ,san i~~azmz~uu~~~~oind~zv ivu~~ ind;m

niwd 2 w a n n ~ u u n i s d n n ~ ~ s ~ s i ~ ~ i m ~ ~ n s ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ u i ~ u

&?: Forbes h i l a n e t ~6&~rn h~p;r(l~.kb~hailand.mm/"inveskmmt-~utI0ok&t~iL~~~3did= 1759

~ u ~ q m n i s ~ ~ ~ ~ i i 1 6 a ~ n i ~ n a u a u i ~ n n 1 ~ u a d a ~ ~ i ' 1 1 a 1 ~ i ~ n ~ ~ a n o i n ~ (Brexit) sauusnii

l 6 d u $ ~ m l ~ d I i i n ' l ~ ~ m r i l ~ i ~ d 19 riquiuu 2560 ru nl;lu?a~aari dsz~wn~ua~duu l i i lnuuiu

~ m i m pii in i,suum?iiiliuflonn Brexit U~~~M~I ' I I ~ IN IC~~ U~PUIU%'IIR ul<Gru< f i ? ~ ( i l ~ l 5 ~ ~ 5 0 1

Bredt L L ~ ~ ~ M ~ I W ~ O S ~ ~ ~ ~ U ~ ~ ~ L ~ U ~ I R " Q I ~ ~ I ~ L Q ~ ~ I ~ ~ " ~ ~ +LGUIU~~~~"YIS'UO~W~ GOS/~~"W"I.IIUIU~M~I~

o inr i~nsuaza~niwqlsd (Citizens'rights) nisGu uazd~:~n"udu q dcs?u f i cdsa~ i~ lb i~ ru~ ,s

biunuirozlaiuaun'rMiia (4 i r in~id~ra~unism"i lu i i~dsz~wn m nyasunau, 2560n) Inuifqnaa

i l iuriuaau$~ziinisdsz~ub~s~iiaun"u~~auazn5"~~d~u~~ yainu 2560

diqniud 17 nsnainu 2560 awsiaaimiTnnsuarawniwqIs~ (EU) I i ~mn is r ss r i saud 2

ludsz~~da~siaaim~Cns~~un~aaan~innisr4u~ui~nva~$qdn~~us"ar~a.a'3nn~~ ~ d a w i b q 6 i

d s z ~ f f u d a d v d ~ i u u Brexit I n u n i s r ~ s ~ l i ~ u n W d C ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ d d d s a r ~ u r f a ~ u a ~ ~ w 3 w a r ~ a ~

n is~3u rrardszr8u~umaiuwu szwiidaiuaun'rwiia~~n"nawsiaaimiCnsn"uai~ism~~laiuaun'

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I u a w n a a i m i T n s d ~ ~ q u in~~k6ain .mis l r i~ ia~6i~ssu~~~~awniw~lsd (European Court of Justice)

r~iuidauGninau uanoindaq8w'swa~iiaa~n$iauga ~ f a ~ ~ u u i ~ u n s z ~ ~ u d i ~ ~ d ~

naiu~~~n'lunrmzr4u~~wiuin~nlunisr0s~iumz~ Imuni . r iq l idunfa j lm' n w s i a a i ~ i i n s

~i~udiasu~~~uamrau"1unisnau~aaan~inni~r~uaui7n~qw~a "divorce bill" I u y a i i d g t u i n

ku~uauiia~naaimiCns~i6a~nisd~r1~u~il~diuln q Lau vorz$dsz~Eiuil~~irumr~~uszw~i~

~ a ~ u a u ~ ~ ~ ~ n k 6 m a ~ s i " t l a i m i ~ n s n " u a i ~ i s ~ s " , s ~ a ~ b ~ a u n " ~ ~ n ~ ~ i ~ i a a ~ d ~ d u 6 u (Deutsche

Welle, 2017)

adiqlsfi! ~di iwams~~wi luaa~n5"a8~~~5aui i0z~~~ 14u~d5ssu~~az~~~ln"u"aa~dd$mrou

~vii lsrin r~imiubagnCnus~uiw~i5o miuau~~~odib~uauda~siuaimiTns'bn"dszni~ld~~~a~u

iiwaIC a w n a a i m i ~ n s ~ i ~ ~ ~ u ~ a u w ~ ~ ~ n i ~ a a n ~ i n ~ ~ a ~ i ~ ~ $ u w i ~ n i s Iuiud 29 i iu inu 2562

uiai~iinisuuius~uzraai~~ur6iu'bn"winln"s"unaiu~uuau0inaui~nIu3q ~ a n i u w k ~ i n 6 u w i a l i ~ Z . z 4 ~~ozduqur iva~siaa imi~nsi i~z~nw"ina iuoi lna~~u~db~uu~~ wau ~walG~ iun iwa ' i$ub~qn isd

dnd iau ihq6u l i$n~~u iq8u aiuisnqIn"oina~d61Cur~ynis~ Brexit ~ ~ n i w d 3

niwg 3 a~ddGu~wqnisd Brexit

Jum 23. a 1 6 , UK vows to leave EU ':I I

B m n nmgotlarans bsgl~

I

I: has to apply llre any

Source: DW retrieved from http~J~.dw.com/en/brex~-tak-round-2Yvhat-toexpect/a-39710840

uuawi~n15bo~oi : Hard Brexit w?a Soft Brexit

urii1a~s1.a~1mi<ns0z~~4~nau~aoinE~ndi~~3u~i~nis~3ud~uuiau~~a"a ueinszuaunis

M ' i h m a ~ ~ d i u i n r i u ~ g u " ~ a ~ $ n u i ~ n a u a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d ~ a u i l ~ ~ i q d a ~ ~ m ~ ~ a z a a i u ~ ~ u i n d d u ~ z ~ i i d

nis~oawlk~msoau~auadas/lsi.aaimi~n~aanoin~~ia~ind ~u~~uda t raa i8 im"~uadn i~ iasad

~~~~wm1u~uw"uSszMii~as~sivaim1~n~n"u3glu0uinm ~ ~ e i t i a u i l ~ ~ i u a z n a ~ u l i ~ ~ d u a u w i ~ n i s ~ a ~

uwrm~9mimiin.iplannouilQwiniuuandu q oiaiilh~aldasc Bred riin~hiuuuu ~ i i i o z d u

Hard Brexit (~~uu~dnrnk) Sort Brexit (~~uuw'aud3u) ad ih f i f f uruz~u"d1~i~di~in"nmai81uad

~~uawi~n~sooum'aw"~aa~~,~uu u9idiiiuuuadn~a+a ~razdaud~uih %~6 i ; lS~ i i~ma i81 lna"7n~z~ i i~ Y Y

msivaiwo'n3uazi y ~a"dn i s~au~aaano in~~"~nda~s i va im i<n f i z d i i i Hard Br& ~IIIMUIUR~ n i s d a ~ s i v s i m i < n s o z I i ~ ~ z ~ ~ s z u a u ~ u ~ s ~ ~ G u a ~ i ~ n i s a ~ ~1m1.j;el5::v1v~"~09v1ga~1qn

~ R u ~ i n u " i a a n d s z ~ w p i l i a d i d ~ a ? ~u~aiui i - rn isnnnoinsla infau$~ ~~azna"uiuld6iuiun"u$g

Iua"nwmz~iuan"ud3z~wpidu 7 uanqIsd huI$ng~nm*iun~a~hn1~nis6iban umrdnisaan~in~~

uuu Soft Brexit 14% ~uudua~~audsu~u n10~a~iidnisu"dnjl~~dnisb~ua81i~nmainfaua~ni~qbsd

1 n u 6 a ~ ~ l a n ~ u n i s ~ ' ~ n I . j ; G n i ~ ~ n $ a u I ~ a ~ d i ~ a ~ u u i ~ ~ ~ a ~ (BBC, 2560)

4 - .3 oinnaiulr i~~wuauwi~ni~~Sa~ua~awsiaaimi4nsmaani]u~~~i~dassm~u 7 w~nnuulu

urn::$ p?u6~Fiun2nshuuac~i~~uawi~nisnau~aaiui~~~~i~ln"~5u 2 ~ d u u u Ra 1) ~ i n u a u i u d a d u

srvrji~n"u~n"w"unai0::~iin~1anszwu~~uin~n ~nua~nraimi$ns~~pldb$uaui%n"~a~mainiau~fisd

Sinqle Market ua::i i lvl~~u~Mnlwqanlns (Customs Union) M%d&!mh i i Soft Brexit M?O 4 3 v

2) ~itimuirnwiuwaqdiaun"u~n"w?a No Deal ~rGicYqnqvld~nisi i FTA n'u EU ddunsmumaql$ Y Y - 4 3 ~aaiuiu~~a::ai~~~n~ans::~~~miuuis~aiun"iu w9u ~ u a ~ i ~ ~ n u ~ ~ n " ~ ~ n i s ~ 0 ~ ' i ) i s : : ~ i ~ a w s i a a i m i 4 n s

401 4 f~~qd6aia.s<u'un untu

d ~ ~ i u i a i w " u l ~ a ~ s i r a i ~ i ~ n s ~ ~ a : : 6 ~ ~ n i s ~ w 5 n 1 ~ 0 ~ ~ i w " ~ l ~ ~ ~ l G 5 ~ ~ a ~ S ~ ~

awsiaainri4'ns 2) nis~n$au6iuus-r~iuZqaii~~a~0::lfi~aw1::~~s~~iuii~nv::

~umuid~wsiaaimi$nsain~~mau~~i~u 3) a~naa1nriins6a~nis2w~dszIuaCwi~ni~~anins

h a y M?a nisr8uaui%n Sinq\e Market ba::ln"fh@?i~das~fiiwqamn~ (Customs Union) ~?ad~unn"u< i

Soft Brexit

I gn8uuosaq ~ : : ~ o u ~ ~ u ~ G ~ M ~ I ~ ~ I ~ I ~ ~ z L ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ I s (Cherry Pic@

Imudsiwoinnaiu$uAnaa~] b~a::a~31aaimi$n~0z6ad~u~n"$u~w~e)srbua~

, uinniiaui%naq 1nuBqo::~asqin"ilu Sinqle Market ba:: Customs Union

i i iod~mnsiaa imi ins6a~uau~udau~~16~ Ra 1) 6a~nisbha$aq3;ln"2w5

lumsa~ai#ulua~naaimi$ns 2) nis~n$auu"iuuuaiu~5uldaiiq~a3 3) iaia.lmi[$a~siaainri$ns 4 4 v dis:iiaanqinZq w'?o Brexit Bil ddsznaudi?udiilui%nsiudwma~dis::5~~ 2563 ~~awsiaoimi$ns

~3::&~nnisr$uaui%nlu 2562 ~ i l $ ~ i u d a w s i ~ a i m i ~ n s ~ ~ u a u i ~ n l u a ~ ~ n s i i ~ 1 ua;lZqsauBs

f i u n a ~ Y ~ ~ ~ ~ v i a ~ s i a a i m i i n s i i ~ a u ~ ~ u a ~ a ~ s ~ ~ i i ~ ~ ~ u a u i n 4qsau~~fi?aiqi i~ai ie1szuim

60-100 h h u q b s

$ ~ ~ ~ a u ~ n l i u u a c u i a : : ~ i u d ~ ~ t i i ~ d a ~ n i l a c w a ~ s : : I u a ~ u a c m u ~ i ~ 6 u I n u ~ a w i r

a d i ~ d ~ d i u i q d 6 a ~ s ~ n v i l ~ ~ n a i u r j i ~ i d a i i a ~ a ~ m a i ~ ~ i l u i l n ~ r c i u u a ~ n - j u ?claiaiqciauwirpia w 0 1

iasaaln q i ~ a w s i r m i m i i n h n ~ l i u k i i p l a i ~ ~ $ d d ~ n " d a ~ s i " ~ ~ a ~ m i $ n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u a u n a u b i a ~ p s "

~n"ui& Sinqle Market ua:: Customs Union ~in&oruaub~lsoimna9diszdi Brexit Bill b i a l ~

aiuisnaiu8u~u~n"u~q~a~d~n" ~ n u ~ d a ~ i a a i ~ u n i s w a u ~ u n ~ s : : ~ ~ u u ~ ~ a ~ s i a a i m i ~ n s ~ n " d ~ u ~ a

cYuerahads::Iuadianimqsn"oan~aun"ufiu~cY~nqv6a~~3uldln" ~<ab~uuriunis~ilsoi FTA daiql$

~aa iu iau iuaan~d~nwa iu~ ua::rianaiudu~iuianir"l~s~~duin~zds::~ijuwansanubn"iu~h

fiu~::s::uznai (p?u6?iun2nilwu, 2560)

wnnss~uuo~bv l~n isn j Brexit i o d 5 r b ~ f l n ~ i G n j q

wasinnisn' idsaaiu~va~awsiaai~iCnslunisnauGaaono~nn~sr$uau~lnawn~w;lsd w w

(EU) lun?~ii~~~iiauiioad~wans:nudanaiuiiraiiusn~wr~asna~u~unjlui;oti~~rduln'~n

l n u ~ a w i ~ ~ t i i ~ d ~ n i s " u u i u ~ ~ t w a u a ~ n ~ u n i s r i i a ~ v a i ~ n d d a ~ i u a w n i w ~ l s ~ ~ m s ~ ~ u a l u " u n ~ s

d u n i a j l G 3 n i s C n l ~ ~ d s ~ a 1 u i ~ ~ a ~ a ~ 1 $ n n 1 ~ Z ; l u w a 1 u d s ~ ~ ~ f i l u ~ l s d l u ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ a n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

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dsarnfi8;did 7 ~ ~ ~ u ~ ? u ~ a d a ~ i ~ n n i w ~ ; " u o d d s a ~ ~ ~ ( ~ ~ u f i d i o1nnisdisao~?iu8n~du"uod

fut?h?'ufia (Pew Research Center) ao$dGu aw??sbu?ni '?J 2560 wu i i dau lw~~ i i ouhwun"uo~

dsavinsnqucil"aad14 9,935 nutuq lsdn i i 10 d s a ~ ~ f i =fd~$dawsi~8iai<f ls (France, Germany,

41w sl

Greece, Hunqaty, My, the Netherbnds, Pohnd, Spin, Sweden and the U.K) $4 nd i3nn nu a; ~ba%Iairiun'a u

nis~an~B~~dsa"~~iui ludsa~~~"u~~~~u~~urZuan"un"uawsiaaiai<nsl(plu~awiaardu d&:9bfia n?a a?rnu

Id~raun'uaa~ussh(simon Kennedy, 2017) 1nui l~~dir icyd~' i l~~~uau~uw1aa~ua~uawniw;~sd

u"auaa riFiinqinisni~awuwluqlsd uanoind ~ ~ o u ~ b r r ~ v ~ ; l d s a " ~ ~ i n s ~ ( i a m i $ ~ w u i i dsaainsn+.d

v 9 d Q , 4

;annnuo;iiauh~Cdn~b5unqua"uw(uaia ~lwni$ iun"un~ud~l6~~n~~n$i i01;6au.~" i~u in $;loin

wanisdisaonjniia a a h u l G ~ d u i i lumwnu~loddsa~m oil3 1 tf~$uauilni; sau8-rawnanaiins

~,a;l<u i i i j v i i ~ 4 ~ i d u ~ a u ~ n i s ~ n i u ~ o a a u ~ a a a n ~ i n ~ ; " u o ~ a w s i a a i a i ~ n s ~ u n ~ ~ d (Bruce, Richard and

Dorothy 2017)

wnnsr~u~~sq,giioluniws?u

di~iu~ansa~uiiiub~l593~iio~s;aawsi"11ai~i<nsSd"u 1 U n S ( i i G ( ~ ~ 5 1 1 1 1 ~ 1 ~ 1 ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ ? ~ d ~ ~ 1 " u

srwii~nil6w"u~aai~~aa~~andoaaanoinZ;lu~~uuejoudu w'ia Soft Brexit ~flu$dndb~uilui%nlu

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nsnginu 2560 o in http://www.forbesthailand.com/investment-outlook-detail .php?

did=1759

gu6?Cun8nslnu. (28 ijquiuu 2560). BRMlT musou 1 ?I... usqu~~an i~Gaa~u~~ i ' v~uwi~d i~~od"~

~ ~ A ~ u L R ? ~ . 23(2852), 1-5.

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nisb-a%-ai Brexit. ger&u 2 ~ 9 ~ i f l ~ 2560 oin http://www.thaitradelondon.com

. (3-9 iiquiuu 2560~). w a n i s ~ n n t d $ a ~ d u s d a w s i ~ a i ~ i < n ~ . iiugu 26 nsnginu 2560

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dllWldldd3:b~fl

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