A2#Macro:#Balance#of#Payments#...an&improvementin&the&trade&balance?& Tradedeficitmay# growininial#...
Transcript of A2#Macro:#Balance#of#Payments#...an&improvementin&the&trade&balance?& Tradedeficitmay# growininial#...
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A2 Macro: Balance of Payments
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Trade to GDP ra,os are rising
Expansion of Financial Capital
FDI and Cross Border M&A
Rise of truly global brands
Deeper specializa,on
Global supply chains & new trade routes
Balance of Payments in the context of a globalizing world
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Key components of the BoP
• The balance of payments is made up of: 1. The current account 2. The capital account 3. Official financing account • (Note: You will need to understand all three for A2 exams, the AS course focused only on current account)
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Current A/C of Balance of Payments
Net Investment Income from Overseas
Net Money Transfers
Trade Balance in Services
Trade Balance in Goods
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A key feature of globalisa,on in recent years has been rising trade imbalances which threatens a resurgence of protec,onism
Trade Imbalances
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Countries with External Surpluses • If a country is running a current account surplus, this
means there is a net inflow of foreign currency into their economic system.
• A surplus on the current account would allow a deficit to be run on the capital account.
• For example, surplus foreign currency can be used to fund investment in assets located overseas
• For example some current account surplus countries have large sovereign wealth funds
• Current account surplus countries nearly always have fairly strong exchange rates as a result
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World’s Largest Sovereign Wealth Funds
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External Deficits and (possible) Trouble Ahead
• Countries with current account deficits can run into financial difficul,es.
• If the deficit is large and the economy is not able to a[ract enough inflows of foreign investment, then their foreign currency reserves will dwindle
• There may come a point when the country needs to seek emergency borrowing from ins,tu,ons such as the Interna,onal Monetary Fund
• Trade deficits and the resul,ng borrowing lead to a rise in external debt and rising debt service costs
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Problems from Trade Gaps Loss of aggregate demand and slower growth
In the long run, deficits undermine the standard of living
Loss of jobs in home-‐based industries
Can lead to currency weakness and higher infla,on
Country may run short of vital foreign currency reserves
Trade deficit a reflec,on of lack of compe,,veness
Can lead to capital flight / harder to a[ract inward FDI
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A[rac,ng Capital Flows
The UK runs a deficit but has found it easy to a[ract capital to finance the gap.
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Improving the Trade / Current Account Balance
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Expenditure -‐ reducing policies -‐ control demand and limit
spending on imports -‐ squeeze on demand, encouraging rising
private sector saving
Expenditure-‐switching policies – e.g. through an exchange rate
deprecia,on / devalua,on
Improving the supply-‐side performance of the economy -‐ to boost compe,,veness -‐
economic reform is a long-‐run strategy
Improving macroeconomic stability to make a country more a[rac,ve to inward
investment + raise produc,vity and increase a country's capacity for expor,ng
Improving Trade Performance in the Short and Long Run
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Macro effects of a currency deprecia,on
This will have an effect on a number of key economic indicators
DomesIc producIon _____ Trade deficit ________ DomesIc employment ______
Changes in import and export prices will affect demand
Import volumes will _______ Export volumes will _______
When the pound depreciates against the US dollar
It makes UK import prices _______ It makes UK export prices _______
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Macro effects of a currency deprecia,on
This will have an effect on a number of key economic indicators
DomesIc producIon _____ Trade deficit ________ DomesIc employment ______
Changes in import and export prices will affect demand
Import volumes will _______ Export volumes will _______
When the pound depreciates against the US dollar
It makes UK import prices RISE It makes UK export prices FALL
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Macro effects of a currency deprecia,on
This will have an effect on a number of key economic indicators
DomesIc producIon _____ Trade deficit ________ DomesIc employment ______
Changes in import and export prices will affect demand
Import volumes will CONTRACT Export volumes will EXPAND
When the pound depreciates against the US dollar
It makes UK import prices RISE It makes UK export prices FALL
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Macro effects of a currency deprecia,on
This will have an effect on a number of key economic indicators
DomesIc producIon Trade deficit DomesIc employment
Changes in import and export prices will affect demand
Import volumes will CONTRACT Export volumes will EXPAND
When the pound depreciates against the US dollar
It makes UK import prices RISE It makes UK export prices FALL
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Macro effects of a currency deprecia,on
This will have an effect on a number of key economic indicators
DomesIc producIon Trade deficit DomesIc employment
Changes in import and export prices will affect demand
Import volumes will CONTRACT Export volumes will EXPAND
When the pound depreciates against the US dollar
It makes UK import prices RISE It makes UK export prices FALL
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Macro effects of a currency deprecia,on
This will have an effect on a number of key economic indicators
DomesIc producIon Trade deficit DomesIc employment
Changes in import and export prices will affect demand
Import volumes will CONTRACT Export volumes will EXPAND
When the pound depreciates against the US dollar
It makes UK import prices RISE It makes UK export prices FALL
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Time period aUer depreciaIon
Trade surplus
Trade deficit
Currency depreciaIon
here
Will a deprecia,on of the currency bring about an improvement in the trade balance?
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Time period aUer depreciaIon
Trade surplus
Trade deficit
Currency depreciaIon
here
Will a deprecia,on of the currency bring about an improvement in the trade balance?
Trade deficit may grow in iniIal period aUer depreciaIon
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Time period aUer depreciaIon
Trade surplus
Trade deficit
Currency depreciaIon
here
Will a deprecia,on of the currency bring about an improvement in the trade balance?
Trade deficit may grow in iniIal period aUer depreciaIon
Net improvement in trade provided certain condiIons
are met
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Reasons for a possible J curve effect
Low elasIcity of demand for exports
Supply constraints for exporters
Low price elasIcity for imports
Demand for wages to rise aUer falling XR
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Time period aUer depreciaIon
Trade surplus
Trade deficit
Currency depreciaIon
here
Please do not draw it this way in the exam if you are discussing the J curve!
A fall in the currency is rarely enough to move from trade deficit to
surplus!
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Improving CompeIIveness
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A2 Macro: Balance of Payments
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