A Weekly Update from SMC 2013: Issue 384, Week: 19th ... · • India's industrial output as...
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WISE M NEY ® HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY 2013: Issue 384, Week: 19th - 22nd August A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only) Brand smc 206
Transcript of A Weekly Update from SMC 2013: Issue 384, Week: 19th ... · • India's industrial output as...
WISE M NEY
®
HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY
2013: Issue 384, Week: 19th - 22nd AugustA Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)
Bra
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(Saurabh Jain)
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
Fixed Deposit 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor Saurabh Jain
Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla
+Editorial Team
Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka
Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth
Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi
Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi
Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey
Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra
Mudit Goyal
Content Editor Kamla Devi
Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal
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lobal stock markets saw profit booking after jobless claims in U.S. saw higher
drop and consumer inflation increased 0.2% in the month of July after inching Gup by 0.5% in the month of June ignited worries of tapering of bond purchase
program by Federal Reserve. Also Investor's confidence data in the month of August
came better than estimates in Germany and it looks the Euro area would come out
from its longest recession.
Back at home, in a bid to arrest the fall in currency, RBI once again came out with some
more measures and this time has put a limit on the investments by domestic
companies for Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) under automatic route of 100% of its
net worth from earlier limit of 400%. Resorting to the capital control measures similar
to 1980's, is viewed negatively by the domestic and international investors.
India's industry continues to remain in state of pain, seeing contraction of 2.2% in the
month of June. Contraction in the month of May was also revised to 2.82% from earlier
reported decline of 1.6%. Widening current account deficit has hit the currency nearly
28% in the last two years similar to the one when rupee got a hit of 37% between the
years 1991 and 1992.
In the ongoing monsoon session of the parliament “the company bill” has got passed
and new Act aimed at greater accountability, investor protection, CSR, etc would
replace the 56 years old Companies Act 1956. Markets are eyeing on the monsoon
session of the parliament to get a sense of the government actions to overcome the
concerns in the economy. No doubt stocks have got beaten down heavily in the last
two months but still investors are advised not to buy stocks just only because they are
looking cheap. Investors should make their investment decisions based on proper
research and reasoning.
On the commodities front, depreciating rupee and surge in physical demand for
yellow metal will keep its shine intact as it again tested above psychological level of
30000 in MCX. This week FOMC minutes and jobless claim data will give direction to
metal and energy. India increased efforts to stem the rupee's plunge and stop capital
outflows that are pushing the economy towards its biggest crisis in more than two
decades. In order to control import of gold, government boosted import duties on gold
and silver on Aug. 13 and banned the import of gold in the form of coins and medallions
to reduce the trade deficit. In US COMEX, money managers cut their bullish gold bets
by 27 percent to 48,103 futures and options in the week ended Aug 6, 2013. Base
metals continue to remain buoyant with upside bias. Chinese producers have
received term premiums of about 200 yuan a tonne for 2013 shipments in the domestic
market, nearly half of what they had received in previous years. Egypt tensions and
hurricane concerns may continue to influence crude oil prices. The U.S. National
Hurricane Center was tracking a weather system over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. In
agro pack, turmeric prices may remain subdued on higher arrivals and lack of demand
in Erode markets.
From The Desk Of Editor
4
NOTES:
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".
2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.
3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate S1 R1 S2 R2 Cl.
Price Trend Trend S/l
Changed Changed
SENSEX 19368 DOWN 01.08.13 19317 19500 19700 19900
S&P NIFTY 5742 DOWN 01.08.13 5728 5780 5850 5900
CNX IT 7956 UP 18.07.13 7306 7300 7200 7100
CNX BANK 10026 DOWN 13.06.13 11687 10600 10800 11000
ACC 1189 DOWN 17.01.13 1359 1230 1260 1300
BHARTIAIRTEL 343 UP 18.07.13 324 325 315 310
BHEL 119 DOWN 01.11.12 227 130 140 150
CIPLA 420 UP 18.07.13 413 395 385 380
DLF 159 DOWN 21.03.13 239 155 160 170
HINDALCO 98 DOWN 13.06.13 97 95 100 105
ICICI BANK 906 DOWN 13.06.13 1069 960 975 990
INFOSYS 3084 UP 18.07.13 2800 2800 2750 2700
ITC 335 DOWN 07.08.13 322 340 345 350
L&T 799 DOWN 23.05.13 945 870 890 920
MARUTI 1391 DOWN 13.06.13 1457 1450 1480 1510
NTPC 144 DOWN 20.06.13 140 140 145 150
ONGC 289 DOWN 13.06.13 309 295 305 315
RELIANCE 865 UP 04.07.13 862 860 840 830
TATASTEEL 250 DOWN 07.02.13 390 250 260 270
NEWS
EX DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE19-AUG-13 RCF DIVIDEND `1.50 PER SHARE19-AUG-13 GODREJPROP RIGHTS 8:29 @ PREMIUM ̀ 315/- PER EQUITY SHARE19-AUG-13 RENUKA DIVIDEND `0.50 PER SHARE20-AUG-13 IGL DIVIDEND `5.50/- PER SHARE20-AUG-13 HTMEDIA DIVIDEND `0.40 PER SHARE20-Aug-13 GUJAPOLLO Dividend - `10/- Per Share20-Aug-13 FDC Dividend - `2.25/- Per Share21-AUG-13 MOTHERSUMI DIVIDEND `2/- PER SHARE21-Aug-13 KCPSUGIND Dividend `1/- Per Share22-AUG-13 SIMPLEXINF DIVIDEND `1 PER SHARE22-AUG-13 CARERATING INTERIM DIVIDEND `6/- PER SHARE22-AUG-13 HINDCOMPOS DIVIDEND `1/- PER SHARE22-AUG-13 DELTACORP DIVIDEND `0.25 PER SHARE22-AUG-13 GNFC DIVIDEND `3.50 PER SHARE22-AUG-13 BASF FINAL DIVIDEND `4/- PER EQUITY SHARE22-AUG-13 IOC DIVIDEND - `6.20/- PER SHARE23-AUG-13 RUCHISOYA DIVIDEND - `0.32/- PER EQUITY SHARE26-AUG-13 NEYVELILIG DIVIDEND - `1.80/- PER SHARE26-AUG-13 GLOBOFFS FINAL DIVIDEND RE.0.80 PER SHARE28-AUG-13 PFIZER DIVIDEND - `12.50/- PER SHARE + SPECIAL
DIVIDEND - `20/- PER SHARE28-AUG-13 WYETH DIVIDEND `17/- PER SHARE28-AUG-13 ALEMBICLTD DIVIDEND `0.20 PER SHARE29-AUG-13 ABIRLANUVO DIVIDEND `6.50/- PER SHARE29-AUG-13 TAKE FINAL DIVIDEND - `0.40/- PER SHARE29-AUG-13 GUJALKALI DIVIDEND-`3.50 PER SHARE29-AUG-13 IDBI DIVIDEND `3.50 PER SHARE30-AUG-13 NHPC FINAL DIVIDEND - `0.60/- PER SHARE30-AUG-13 HINDALCO DIVIDEND `1.40 PER SHARE
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
DOMESTIC NEWS
Economy
• India's industrial output as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shrank 2.2 per cent in June as compared to a contraction of 2 per cent in the same month a year ago. The IIP in May declined 2.8 per cent, revised from negative 1.6 per cent.
• India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose 5.79 percent year-on-year, following a 4.86 percent increase in June.
• India lifted the import duty on gold and silver in a bid to curb domestic demand for the precious metals and narrow its huge current account deficit. The tariffs on gold imports were raised for the third time this year, to 10 percent from 8 percent.
Automobile/ Auto Ancillary
• Bosch, a supplier of automotive components to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), is set to launch ABS (anti-lock braking system) for two-wheelers and three-wheelers early next year through OEMs in Indian market.
Mining/ Minerals
• Coal India (CIL) has modified its fuel supply agreement to allow a third party to collect samples and determine the quality of the dry fuel.
Pharmaceutical
• Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has received US health regulator's approval to market generic version of Forest Laboratories' Campral Delayed Release Tablets, a drug used for alcohol abstinence, in the American market.
• Sun Pharmaceutical Industries will pay its dues of ̀ 2,517.41 crore soon as part of settlement agreement with Wyeth (now a division of Pfizer Inc.) and Altana Pharma AG (now known as Takeda GmbH).
Oil & Gas
• Petronet LNG Ltd, the country's largest importer of liquid gas, has received the maiden cargo at its just constructed Kochi import terminal in Kerala but the ship hasn't been able to dock at the port because of dredging issues.
Realty/ Infra
• Promoters of Housing Development Infrastructure Limited paid `3.22 crore to Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited (IHFL) to regularise their loan account.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
• US jobless claims fell to 320,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 335,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 330,000 from the 333,000 originally reported for the previous week.
• US business inventories came in unchanged in June after edging down by 0.1 percent in May. Economists had been expecting inventories to increase by about 0.2 percent.
• US industrial production was unchanged in July after rising by a downwardly revised 0.2 percent in June. Economists had expected production to increase by 0.3 percent, matching the growth originally reported for the previous month.
• US retail sales edged up by 0.2 percent in July following an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in June. Economists had expected sales to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
• US import prices rose by 0.2 percent in July following a revised 0.4 percent decrease in June. However, the price growth fell well short of economist estimates for a 0.9 percent increase. Export prices edged down by 0.1 percent in July, matching the drop seen in June. Economists had expected export prices to rise by 0.2 percent.
• Eurozone Industrial production increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent month-on-month in June, reversing the previous month's 0.2 percent decrease, which was revised up from a 0.3 percent fall. Economists had forecast production to record a faster growth of 1 percent.
• German gross domestic product grew 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter after adjusting to seasonal and calendar variations in the three months through June. Economists had forecast a 0.6 percent expansion.
*Stock price has been adjusted according to the Bonus ratio 1:2
®
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BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
FTSE 100CAC 40
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
SMC Trend
Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
®
4.043.76
4.75
4.25
4.75
4.23
0.00
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Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
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IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power IndexRealty Index
-0.86
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Tata Motors Tata Steel Jindal Steel Sun Pharma.Inds.
Hindalco Inds.
St Bk of India TCS Dr Reddy's Labs
Reliance Inds.
Tata Power Co.
15.0914.45 14.31
12.61
10.33
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DLF Tata Motors Tata Steel NMDC B P C L St Bk of India Ambuja Cem. Grasim Inds TCS Dr Reddy's Labs
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
6
® Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year. Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
52 Week High/Low 54.00 / 41.00
M.Cap (` Cr.) 2272.17
EPS (`) 2.37
P/E Ratio (times) 19.83
P/B Ratio (times) 1.88
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
% OF SHARE HOLDING
GUJARAT PIPAVAV PORT LTD CMP: 47.00 Upside: 35%Target Price: 63
Investment Rationale port infrastructure development fee (new)—$6 for 20 ft and $12 for 40 ft containers. The revised tariff •Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited is the developer and is broadly in line with its 3% tariff revision operator of APM Terminals Pipavav, India's first assumption during CY13private sector port, which has multi-cargo and
•Gujarat Pipavav Port has doubled its net profit to multi-user operations. The company principally is `35.2 crore for Apr-Jun 2013 from `15.7 crore for engaged in providing port handling and marine
services for container cargo, bulk cargo, and LPG Apr-Jun 2012 on account of total container cargo cargo. In addition, it operates a Container Freight handling rising by 17 percent in Apr-Jun 2013. Its Station (CFS) and also generates revenue from net sales rose by 19 percent to `122 crore for Apr-land-related and infrastructure activities. Jun 2013 (`102.5 crore).
•The company is planning to double the container Valuationcapacity and to set up tank farms at an investment The company has witnessed improvement in volume of ̀ 1,100 crore in the next two years. The company growth for both Container and Bulk & General Cargo. is likely to invest around ̀ 800 crore to increase the Debt repayment has also helped the company in container capacity from its current capacity of terms of improved bottom-line and would continue 850,000 TEUs to 1.5 million TEUs. The company going forward. The expanded capacity on completion will increase the length of the existing container of the new projects would help the company as the jetty from 385 mtr to 735 mtr in the next two year economy revives. On the estimated FY14E EPS of period. `3.34 and target P/Ex of 19x, we expect the stock to
•For the quarter ended June, Pipavav handled see a price target of 63 in one year time frame. 1.018 million tonne of bulk cargo, which is the highest volume of bulk cargo handled by the company during a quarter. Of the total bulk cargo, 480,000 tonne (47 per cent) was coal and 200,000 (almost 20 per cent) tonne was fertilizer. Coal, minerals (limestone), fertiliser, agri-products (foodgrains) are the key bulk commodities handled by APM Pipavav Terminals.
•The company has proposed revision in port tariffs, effective August 16 2013, a year after dollarisation of container tariffs. Terminal handling charges for road containers have been raised ~15% (across loaded and empty containers for both 20 ft and 40 ft containers) and all containers arriving at and departing from the port by rail would be charged
` in cr
Particular Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014
Revenue 371.54 485.23 562.98
EBITDA 181.87 226.46 274.05
EBIT 126.93 170.25 215.81
Pre-Tax Profit 73.96 133.71 179.87
Net Profit 73.96 130.96 160.82
EPS 1.64 2.69 3.34
BVPS 25.07 27.74 30.90
ROE 7.38 10.03 11.04
P/BV Chart
Face Value (`) 5.00
52 Week High/Low 464.80/315.00
M.Cap (`Cr.) 7241.77
EPS (`) 29.85
P/E Ratio (times) 14.34
P/B Ratio (times) 5.09
Dividend Yield (%) 2.69
Stock Exchange BSE
` in cr
Particular Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015
Revenue 3,054.00 3,648.28 4,182.02
EBITDA 693.00 737.14 848.64
EBIT 610.00 632.61 723.96
Pre-Tax Profit 582.00 653.74 746.21
Net Profit 433.00 511.44 577.68
EPS 25.58 29.70 34.19
BVPS 84.03 106.07 128.69
ROE 35.93 31.30 29.02
VALUE PARAMETERS
% OF SHARE HOLDING
Investment Rationale •The Current outstanding hedges are at USD 200-250 million with forward rate of ̀ 58-59 per dollar. •Torrent Pharmaceuticals, the flagship company of It generally hedges minimum 6-12 months forward the Torrent Group, is one of the leading revenues.pharmaceutical companies having presence in
Indian and across the globes. The Company's •Net profit of Torrent Pharmaceuticals rose 44.59% revenues are mainly from manufacture and sale to Rs 214.00 crore in the quarter ended June 2013 of branded as well as unbranded generic as against `148.00 crore during the previous pharmaceutical products. quarter ended June 2012. Sales rose 31.94% to
`818.00 crore in the quarter ended June 2013 as •Company plans generic products for the Brazilian against ̀ 620.00 crore during the previous quarter market and expects to launch 4-5 products in the ended June 2012.near terms, further around 20-30 products in the
pipeline. Valuation
•It has received 43 ANDA approvals (including 7 The company is planning to improve its development tentative approvals) and pipeline consists of 24 through expansion into further locations and pending approvals and 34 products under increasing its presence in new therapeutical area as development. Further, it expects to launch 5 to 6 well as launch of new products to fill gaps in its products next year in the US market. current portfolio. We, thus, expect the stock to see a
price target of ̀ 505 in one year time frame, based on •The company's current international operation estimated FY14E EPS of 29.70 on target P/Ex of 17.mainly covers USA, Brazil, Europe (incl. Germany)
and Rest of the World including Russia, CIS, Asia Pacific and Africa.
•The company's manufacturing plant at Chattral has a capacity to manufacture approx. 5,500 million tablets, capsules and vials and 45,000 kgs of Bulk Drugs/API. The manufacturing plant at Baddi has a capacity to manufacture 3,300 million tablets and 350 million capsules. Manufacturing plant at Sikkim has a capacity to manufacture 3,900 million tablets per annum. The company's Capex plan for the expanding the facilities is around Rs 1100 crore (`300 crore already spent) up to FY'17.
P/E Chart
TORRENT PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED CMP: 427.95 Upside: 18%Target Price: 505
14 17 20 23 Close Price
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Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
The stock closed at 309.65 on 14th August 2013. It made a 52-week low at
`267.70 on 28th March 2013 and a 52-week high at ̀ 367 on 17th September 2012.
The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart
is currently at ̀ 298.72.
After a marginal fall, it made a reversal and managed to sustain above its 200
EMA despite the weakness in major index last week. It has still room left on the
upside so we anticipate that it will reach our targets in the near term. One can
Buy in the range of 307-310 levels with closing below stop loss of 297 levels for
the target of 325-330 levels.
`
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
The stock closed at 201.35 on 14th August 2013. It made a 52-week low at 182
on 07th August 2013 and a 52-week high of ̀ 300.10 on 07th September 2012. The
200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is
currently at ̀ 310.68
After making 52 week low of 182 levels it rebounded sharply by forming a
reversal bar which shows that bargain hunting is there due to which it gave a
closing on positive note on weekly basis. One can Buy in the range of 200-203
levels with the closing below stop loss of 194 levels for the target of 215-220
levels.
` `
The stock closed at 145.90 on 14th August 2013. It made a 52-week low at
`109.55 on 01st April 2013 and a 52-week high at `169.95 on 04th December
2012. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly
chart is currently at ̀ 120.16.
It traded in a consolidation period since last few months and managed to negate
the major weakness in all other counters, which determines its strength. One
can Buy 140-142 levels with closing below stop loss of 134 levels for the target of
152-156 levels.
`
CAIRN INDIA
RALLIS INDIA
MOIL
®
DERIVATIVES
BASIS GAP IN NIFTY
Fall in the premium of Nifty Aug future from 20 points to discount 1 point within a span of last 3-4 trading sessions indicates sentimental change in the market.
Most of the Nifty 50 stocks also saw sharp decline in cost of carry, which indicates delivery based selling. Possible support can be expected around 5450 levels but
if Nifty breaches 5450 level, then the next important support level will be 5300. The September contract ended the week at a premium of 33.00 points. Put-call
ratio of open interest is falling due to call writing in out of money options and finally closed at 0.98 levels. The market expects further rise in volatility as
indicated by sudden rise in VIX index. Technically, the Index continues to trade below all its moving averages, of 200-day and 100-day EMAs, indicating a bearish
scenario. The highest concentration of call option is at 5600-strike call option, which has 60 lakh shares. Among put options, the highest open interest is at the
5400 strike, with an open interest of above 70 lakh shares. The options build-up in the 5600 strike indicates a resistance in the short term. The Implied Volatility
(IV) of call options closed at 18.65% while the average IV of put options ended at 19.68%. Higher IV of put option indicates buying interest in puts and writing in
out of money call options. Nifty VIX has also increased indicating volatility and uncertainty in market.
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)
FIIs ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE (F&O) IN LAST WEEK
(Derivative segment)
®
FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS
(Derivative segment) `(Cr)
DLF (AUG FUTURE)
Sell: Below `143
Target: `148
Stop loss: `133
HINDALCOBuy AUG 95 CALL 2.10Buy AUG 90 PUT 1.90
Lot size: 4000Upside BEP: 99.00Downside BEP: 86.00Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 16000.00 (4.00*4000)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURESTRATEGY
BHARTIARTLBuy AUG 340 CALL 6.75Buy AUG 330 PUT 8.50
Lot size: 1000Upside BEP: 355.25Downside BEP: 314.75Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 15250.00 (15.25*1000)
ABIRLANUVO (AUG FUTURE)
Sell: `1184
Target: `1142
Stop loss: `1205
Below
HCLTECHBuy AUG 940 CALL 14.95Buy AUG 900 PUT 12.60
Lot size: 500Upside BEP: 967.55Downside BEP: 872.45Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 13775.00 (27.55*500)
VOLATILITY STRATEGY
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
JINDALSTEL (AUG FUTURE)
Sell: `209
Target: `198
Stop loss: `215
Below
146650 151850
727300
1319250
2790950
4470300
4927650
5947700 5951400
3961700
2206650
3561850
2903050
5745950 5829200
59764006024800
3519800
1370850
1071950
503250 368450
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200
Call Put
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
30-Jul 31-Jul 01-Aug 02-Aug 05-Aug 06-Aug 07-Aug 08-Aug 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-AUg
BUY26.7%
SELL73.3%
-304.41
1164.30
771.35
-732.37
-497.89
-2013.62
-805.87
451.51
847.29
1555.56
-2500.00
-2000.00
-1500.00
-1000.00
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
31-Jul 01-Aug 02-Aug 05-Aug 06-Aug 07-Aug 08-Aug 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-AUg
8
9
BHARTIARTL 9598000 9637000 0.41 0.93 1.00 0.07 41.58 42.48 0.90
DLF 31560000 33273000 5.43 0.62 1.05 0.43 78.35 76.71 -1.64
HINDALCO 25568000 24976000 -2.32 0.65 0.90 0.25 50.78 50.20 -0.58
HINDUNILVR 7985000 6930000 -13.21 0.96 0.95 -0.01 32.34 33.08 0.74
ICICIBANK 9600500 9256500 -3.58 0.67 0.57 -0.10 37.93 35.48 -2.45
IDEA 8750000 9280000 6.06 0.25 0.61 0.36 53.26 50.28 -2.98
INFY 2564000 2764875 7.83 1.31 1.59 0.28 25.04 24.43 -0.61
ITC 23127000 17442000 -24.58 0.62 0.63 0.01 31.50 31.47 -0.03
JPASSOCIAT 85612000 83948000 -1.94 0.46 0.50 0.04 81.35 81.65 0.30
NTPC 10332000 9936000 -3.83 0.58 0.78 0.20 29.92 31.72 1.80
ONGC 8615000 7589000 -11.91 0.40 0.53 0.13 42.97 42.90 -0.07
RANBAXY 3427500 4340000 26.62 1.74 1.41 -0.33 108.47 58.26 -50.21
RCOM 30076000 30452000 1.25 0.58 0.63 0.05 67.22 58.82 -8.40
RELIANCE 7699500 7055500 -8.36 0.66 0.54 -0.12 32.37 32.16 -0.21
NIFTY 15834950 14904500 -5.88 0.94 1.07 0.13 19.61 16.94 -2.67
SAIL 13388000 15140000 13.09 0.55 0.67 0.12 50.51 54.63 4.12
SBIN 5545250 6007625 8.34 0.83 0.58 -0.25 47.75 39.88 -7.87
TATASTEEL 21354000 17246000 -19.24 0.61 1.07 0.46 47.31 43.15 -4.16
UNITECH 68240000 68088000 -0.22 0.64 0.71 0.07 84.59 78.63 -5.96
IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS
OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY
SCRIPTS PREV. CURRENT % PREV. CURRENT PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE
DERIVATIVES
Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has increased to
1.07 from 0.94. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a positive of
change in put call open interest ratio.
Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week
has decreased to 16.94% from 19.61%. The IV of the stock futures has changed
this week ranging from -50.21% to 4.12%.
Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week
has decreased by 5.88% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw
changes in their open interest ranging from -24.58% to 26.62%. RANBAXY has the
maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.
Statistical Analysis·
Open 5552.15 High 5759.00
Low 5541.50 Close 5748.30
NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS
®
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
5400
5500
5600
5700
5800
08-Aug 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-AUg
Nifty Close IV
10
®
Weakening local currency rupee coupled with rise in import duty in India
along with bounce back in the international prices will keep the upside
momentum intact in the Bullion counter. Greenback can take support near
80.40 levels. On the domestic bourses weakness in the local currency rupee
lifted the domestic prices drastically as it weakened above 62 Vs Dollar. The
import duty on gold hiked to 10 per cent from 8 per cent and on silver it was
hiked by 10 per cent from 6 per cent earlier. Govt raises excise duty on
refined gold bars made from ore to 9% from 7%. According to the World Gold
Council (WGC), Gold imports in India are set to touch a record 1,000 tonne
this year, up from 860 tonne in 2012. Despite a series of hikes in import duty
and other restrictions imposed by the government, the quarter saw gold
imports of as much as 310 tonne the highest in the last ten years. Till last
quarter, the demand forecast for 2013 stood at 865-965 tonne, which has
been raised in view of frenzied buying seen last quarter. WGC stated that
demand was mainly fuelled by the falling prices. The strength of second
quarter gold demand again demonstrated how Indians remain committed to
gold. The fall in the gold price last April resulted in an increase in demand
for jewellery of more than 50% on last year and the demand for bar and coin
got doubled.”Gold may trade in the range of $1310-1440 in COMEX and
29000-31500 in MCX. White metal silver can also trade in the range of 48000-
53000 in near term.
BULLIONS
Crude oil may continue to register fresh high in MCX as it made life time high of above 6650 last week. Recently improvement in US economy and Middle East tensions along with declining greenback gave support to the prices. Escalating conflict in Egypt fanned concern that oil shipments through the country may be disrupted. A government installation near Cairo was attacked and 11 security personnel were gunned down in the latest episode of violence that has killed more than 600 people. According to the Energy Information Administration Egypt controls the Suez Canal and the Suez Mediterranean Pipeline, through which a combined 4.51 million barrels a day of crude and refined products were shipped between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean in 2012. Crude oil futures can move in the range of 6500-6800 in MCX and $105-112 in NYMEX. Bounce back in the natural gas may persist as it can trade in the range of 200-222 in MCX. Strom concerns and warm weather conditions may keep the prices well supported. Forecasters now expect temperatures to turn hot across these areas in the next 6 to 10 days, salvaging what has been a weak summer-demand season for gas. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that two tropical cyclones may form in coming days. An area of low pressure near the Cayman Islands is moving toward the Yucatan Peninsula and the southern Gulf of Mexico and has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 60% chance in the next five days.
ENERGY COMPLEX
Base metals complex may trade with upside bias on strong China imports data and weak local currency rupee. Recently improving U.S. economy has also fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve might trim stimulus sooner rather than later, which could weigh on metals demand. Signs that the pace of growth in top metal consumer China is steadying after contracting for more than two years has driven a rally in base metals prices this month have helped by a U.S. recovery and signs of economic revival in Europe. China's refined copper importers face paying premiums of as much as a third more to get term shipments for 2014 as suppliers such as Codelco and BHP Billiton take advantage of high current spot premiums to negotiate pricier contracts. The increase in term premiums could mean importers in the world's biggest copper user may not raise contracted purchase volumes for next year even if they expect stronger domestic demand. They would then have to buy the metal from the international spot market, exposing them to price risks. Red metal copper can trade in the range of 440-480. Aluminum prices may move in the range of 112-120 levels while Zinc prices can hover in the range of 116-125 in MCX. China's oversupply of aluminium is likely to escalate in the second half of 2013 as more new capacity is set to come on stream, further reducing the need for imports by the world's top consumer and producer of aluminium. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 860-990 in MCX. While battery metal Lead can move in the range of 130-143.
BASE METALS
Chilli futures (Sept) is likely to trade higher towards 5600 levels. The spot prices of some chilli varieties at Koyambedu market, Andhra Pradesh have gained due to supply disruptions. On the demand side, export enquiries are being reported in Guntur mandi; higher demand for Teja variety reported in Guntur mandi. In the current scenario, Bangladesh and Malaysia are the major buyers. Any short covering in turmeric futures (Sept) may remain capped near 5000 levels. The Erode market is witnessing higher arrivals as farmers are in requirement of money for their agricultural operations. Moreover, the exporters are lacking upcountry orders due to the ongoing monsoon. On the supply side, the sowing area may increase in Andhra Pradesh state as compared to Tamil Nadu. In Andhra Pradesh district, Turmeric sowing area reported till 7th August 2013, 29525 hectares as compared to the last year same period 24947 hectares. Jeera futures (Sept) will possibly witness a consolidation in the range of 13100-13600 levels. Reports of lower carry-over stocks in India & the persistent worries over supplies from Syria in world markets may cap the downside. Cardamom futures (Sept) is likely to trade sideways facing resistance near 800 levels. The exporters are keeping away from fresh buying & waiting for the arrival of exportable varieties of capsules which would come from the second round of picking by the month-end.
SPICES
OTHER COMMODITIES
Chana futures (Sept) may trade with an upside bias towards 3000 levels.
The counter is attracting positive sentiments of increased demand from
millers and slack arrival in Indore mandis. The Chana prices stayed around
`3000/quintal in Delhi, at three week high levels & witnessing a decent
pick-up in demand. Sugar futures (Sept) is likely to consolidate in the range
of 3000-3030 levels. The stockists are keeping away from bulk buying as
ample stocks are available in the market. The Vashi wholesale market has
continuously been carrying over 120 truckloads (each 100 bags of 100 kg
each) of inventory stocks for quite some time. Maize futures (Sept) is
expected to test 1380 levels, on reports of lingering worries over the
standing crop in Andhra Pradesh & demand from Starch feed makers. On the
international market, a warmer 5-7 day forecast for the northern Midwest
and lack of rainfall has made the market participants nervous about how
corn conditions and yields unfold to finish out this month. The export sales
beat market estimates due to another solid round of new crop sales. Wheat
futures (Sept) is likely to face resistance near 1600 levels. The offtakes are
on the lower side by the exporters owing to lack of exports as Indian parity
is costlier as compared with the Black Sea origin countries, such as Ukraine.
Soybean futures (Oct) may witness a consolidation taking support above
2900 levels. The incessant rainfall in the key soybean producing regions of
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra has led to widespread fears of
damage to the standing crop in these regions. As regards export scenario of
soymeal, one vessel is waiting at the cargo jetties at Kandla port to load
38,000 tonnes of soy meal for export. Two vessels are waiting for berth at
Kandla port to load 50,000 tonnes of soy meal for exports. Another vessel is
expected to arrive at Kandla port to load 45,000 tonnes of soy meal. The
fundamentals of soybean on the international market show that a turn to
dry weather in late August in parts of the U.S. soybean growing region
threatens to trim yields and boost prices. Mustard futures (Sept) is expected
to maintain its upside bias to test 3450 levels. The demand for mustard oil is
steady amid a mostly positive undertone in edible oils market. Moreover,
the arrivals are slipping in major mandies now as the peak supplies season is
getting over. CPO futures (Sept) is likely to trade further higher surpassing
515 levels as a weak rupee at life time low is putting pressure on import of
vegetable oils. On the Malaysian market, the palm oil prices are rising
boosted by investor optimism over rising exports & shrinking stock of soy oil.
In U.S. the soybean oil stocks for July sank to 2.049 million pounds, down
from 2.345 in July of last year.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
Closing as on 14.08.2013
11
NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly
basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN (OCT) 2989.50 25.07.13 DOWN 2884.50 - 3200.00 3350.00 3500.00
NCDEX JEERA (SEP) 13327.00 11.04.13 UP 13795.00 12400.00 - 12000.00 - 11500.00
NCDEX RED CHILLI (SEP) 5344.00 17.04.13 DOWN 6362.00 - 5900.00 6100.00 6200.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS (SEP) 3288.00 25.07.13 DOWN 3099.00 - 3600.00 3700.00 3800.00
MCX MENTHA OIL (AUG) 853.70 13.06.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX CARDAMOM (SEP) 758.30 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 820.00 850.00 900.00
MCX SILVER (SEP) 46573.00 14.08.13 UP 46573.00 43000.00 - 41000.00 - 39000.00
MCX GOLD (OCT ) 29186.00 14.08.13 UP 29186.00 27800.00 - 26800.00 - 25800.00
MCX COPPER (AUG) 451.20 30.05.13 UP 414.55 440.00 - 420.00 - 410.00
MCX LEAD (AUG) 135.00 30.05.13 UP 122.90 130.00 - 126.00 - 122.00
MCX ZINC (AUG) 118.05 30.05.13 UP 107.55 115.00 - 112.00 - 110.00
MCX NICKEL (AUG) 909.30 14.08.13 UP 909.30 850.00 - 810.00 - 780.00
MCX ALUMINUM (AUG) 114.00 14.08.13 UP 114.00 108.00 - 106.00 - 104.00
MCX CRUDE OIL (SEP) 6539.00 06.06.13 UP 5404.00 6300.00 - 6200.00 - 6100.00
MCX NATURAL GAS (AUG) 206.70 06.06.13 DOWN 218.60 - 220.00 225.00 230.00
TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING
*
TREND SHEET
COMMODITY
CORIANDER NCDEX (SEPTEMBER) contract closed at 5559.00 on 14th August '13. The contract made its
high of ̀ 6276 on 15th July '13 and a low of ̀ 5072.00 on 2nd August '13. The 18-day Exponential Moving
Average of the commodity is currently at ̀ 5561. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50. One can buy 5650-
5550 the range with the stop loss of ̀ 5400 for a target of ̀ 6000.
`
ALUMINIUM MCX (AUGUST) contract closed at 114.00 on 14th Aug '13. The contract made its high of
`117.50 on 16th August '13 and a low of ̀ 105.65 on 28th June '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving Average
of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 111.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 77.One can buy in the
range 114-113 with the stop loss of ̀ 111 for target of ̀ 118.
`
CHILLI NCDEX (SEPTEMBER) contract closed at 5344.00 on 14th August '13.The contract made its high
of `5734.00 on 15th July '13 and a low of `5052.00 on 7th August '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving
Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 5353.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48. One can buy in the
range 5300-5200 with the stop loss of ̀ 5050 for a target of ̀ 5600.
`
®
CORIANDER NCDEX (SEPTEMBER)
ALUMINIUM MCX (AUGUST)
CHILLI NCDEX (SEPTEMBER)
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
Bullion counter on the domestic bourses continued its relentless upside rally as the surge in physical demand and weakness in local currency rupee lifted the prices higher in MCX. Gold tested high of above 30000 last seen in February this year. While white metal silver tested above 49800 in MCX. Govt raises excise duty on refined gold bars made from ore to 9% from 7% while Indian Govt hikes excise duty on silver made from ore to 8% from 4%. Last quarter India and China together accounted for almost 60% of the world's gold demand during the quarter. The spurt in demand puts paid to the government's efforts to curtail imports through measures such as import duty hike (up thrice so far this year) on gold, curbs on import of gold coins and on the 'gold on lease' model for jewellery. The concern on high gold imports stems from the fact that it fed into the widening current account deficit (CAD), making India more vulnerable to external shocks. The stunning upside in the Crude oil prices continued last week on surge in Middle East tensions. Last week hundreds of protesters loyal to ousted Islamist President Mohamed Mursi attacked the governor's offices in Giza near Cairo, some hurling firebombs and firing guns, according to Amin Abdel Moneam. Base metals continued their upside momentum continuing last to last week gains on better China data. Copper managed to move higher and tested above 460 in MCX. Zinc also remained on firm note and tested above 120 while Lead crossed high of 137 domestic bourses. Aluminum also made high of 116 last seen in February of this year.
On the monsoon front, India's rains were below average in the week ending Aug. 14. Rainfall was 4% below average, compared to 1% below the previous week. The June to September rains were very heavy in the first half of the season, which initially helped sowing but later raised worries of crop damage. Among gainers, oilseeds complex remain firm supported by a weaker rupee & lower level buying ahead of festivities round the corner. The Indian rupee fell to a record low of 62.03 to the dollar, breaching its previous record low of 61.80 hit on Aug. 6. On the international market, Malaysian palm oil futures rose to their highest in more than a month, boosted by strong exports from the world's second-largest producer, as major buyer China stocks up ahead of the Mid-Autumn festival in September. Whereas, U.S soybean held its 3 week high as forecasts for hot and dry weather in parts of the U.S. crop belt triggered concerns over supplies. The gains in guar complex continued to remain capped on the expectations of bumper production due to higher acreage. Chana prices also witnessed some modest gains on the back of lower level buying. Mentha oil prices plunged on the heels of stockist on the heels of fresh supplies in local mandies. In spices, turmeric futures lost the most as the producers continued to sell their produce in requirement of funds for sowing operations.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
COMMODITY UNIT 06.08.13 13.08.13 DIFFERENCEQTY.
BARLEY MT 26884 25456 -1428
CASTOR SEED MT 120221 120168 -53
CHANA MT 145918 136495 -9423
CHILLI MT 8351 7695 -656
COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 49822 48164 -1658
JEERA MT 5300 5365 65
MAIZE MT 8886 8936 50
RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 78825 67018 -11807
SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 41 41 0
SUGAR M MT 7904 6904 -1000
WHEAT MT 16444 15897 -547
COMMODITY UNIT 07.08.13 14.08.13 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 52.50 52.50 0.00
COTTON BALES 113000.00 87500.00 -25500.00
GOLD KGS 334.00 309.00 -25.00
GOLD MINI KGS 32.20 29.20 -3.00
GOLD GUINEA KGS 7.98 6.19 -1.79
MENTHA OIL KGS 1937849.40 2277708.25 339858.85
MILD STEEL MT 1045.70 1045.70 0.00
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 18973.20 25358.22 6385.02
•Sales of American Eagle silver coins by the U.S. Mint
were 31 million ounces so far this year, compared
with 33.7 million ounces sold in all of 2012.
•India's crude oil imports during July, 2013 were
valued at $12709.4 million which was 8.02% lower
than oil imports valued at $ 13816.9 million in the
corresponding period last year.
•Govt raises excise duty on refined gold bars made
from ore to 9% from 7% and import duty on gold hiked
to 10% from 8%.
•Govt hikes excise duty on silver made from ore to 8%
from 4% and import duty on silver was hiked by 10%
from 6% earlier.
•According to WGC “Gold demand fell 12 % to a four-
year low in the second quarter of 2013”.
•India's rainfall was 4% below average, compared to 1%
below the previous week.
•The Government has set the production target of 259
MT foodgrains for the year 2013-14.
•India's natural rubber imports in July jumped 39.2%
from a year ago to 29,311 tonnes. Output in July
dropped 32.4% on year to 46,000 tonnes.
•India's vegetable oil imports in July stood at 889,493
tonnes, down 6.1% from the previous month.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
®
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
QTY.
10.19
6.80
5.40 5.31
4.63
-3.29 -3.23
-2.21 -2.14
-1.36
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
SILVER NEW COTTON SD O.C (AKL)
SOYAMEAL POTATO GOLD 100 GMS (HYD)
TURMERIC CASTOR SEED NEW
SHANKAR KAPAS
GUAR SEED GUAR GUM
11.68
6.89
5.40 5.37 5.14
-6.58
-2.66 -2.51-2.08
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
SILVER 1000 POTATO GOLD GUINEA KAPASKHALI COTTON CARDAMOM STEEL RPR GUARSEED GUARGUM
Scenario of Import of Vegetable Oils - India
13
SPOT PRICES (% change)
COMMODITY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
07.08.13 15.08.13
ALUMINIUM 5480625 5452125 -28500
COPPER 605125 588450 -16675
NICKEL 204906 205812 906
LEAD 200200 195025 -5175
ZINC 1055300 1042525 -12775
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 08.08.13 15.08.13 CHANGE(%)
Soya CBOT NOV Cent per Bushel 1184.25 1265.25 6.84
Maize CBOT SEPT Cent per Bushel 473.50 481.50 1.69
CPO* BMD NOV MYR per MT 2201.00 2299.00 4.45
Sugar LIFFE OCT 10 cents per MT 493.10 504.50 2.31
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 08.08.13 15.08.13 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1840.00 1908.00 3.70
COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 7185.00 7309.00 1.73
LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2139.00 2207.00 3.18
NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 14330.00 14725.00 2.76
ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 1895.00 1959.50 3.40
GOLD COMEX DEC 1309.90 1360.90 3.89
SILVER COMEX SEPT 20.19 22.94 13.58
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX SEPT 105.97 107.33 1.28
NATURAL GAS NYMEX SEPT 3.30 3.42 3.70
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
The import of vegetable oils during July 2013 is reported at 889,493 tons compared
to 870,328 tons in July 2012 i.e. up by only 2%, consisting of 874,703 tons of edible
oils and 14,790 tons of non-edible oils. The overall import of vegetable oils during
Nov.'12 to July '13 is reported at 8,034,553 tons compared to 7,265,527 i.e. up by
10.58%.
Stock at Ports & Pipelines : Stock of edible oils as on 1st August, 2013 at various
ports estimated at 610,000 tons (CPO 230,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 180,000 tons,
Degummed Soybean Oil 140,000 tons, Crude Sunflower Oil 60,000 tons) and about
1,380,000 tons in pipelines. Total stock, both at ports and pipelines is 1,990,000
tons compared to 2,060,000 tons in previous month.
®
Surge in Import of RBD Palmolein : Import of RBD Palmolein reported to 213,853
tons in July 2013 compared to 296,230 tons in June 2013 due to reduction in duty
difference between crude and refined palmolein and inverted duty structure by
palm oil exporting countries. This has encouraged larger export of RBD Palmolein
to India. Import of RBD Palmolein during Apr.'13 to July'13 has surged and reported
at 1,137,409 tons compared to 503,203 tons during the same period of last year
leading to crisis in domestic refining sector.
Import of Palm & Soft Oil Ratio : During Nov.'12 to July '13 Palm Oil import
increased to 6,331,441 tons compared to 5,289,017 tons during the same period of
last year. However, Soft oils import reduced to 1,485,182 tons from 1,815,650 tons
last year.
Price movement and Rupee depreciation : In last one year, RBD Palmolein has
fallen by US$ 226 (22%), CPO by US$ 197 (20%), Crude Soybean Oil by US$ 305 (24%)
and Crude Sunflower Oil by US$ 34 (3%). Rupee has suddenly fallen in last few days
and touched Rs.61.50 a dollar (13th August), putting some pressure on import of
vegetable oils.
Import of Non-edible Oils : Import of Non-edible oils during July 2013 is reported
at 14,790 tons compared to 22,099 tons during the same period of last year. The
overall import of non-edible oils during Nov.'12 to July '13 has increased to 217,930
tons compared to 160,860 tons during the same period last year. i.e. up by 35%.
P.F.A.D., C.P.K.O. and RBD Palm Sterin are the major import of non-edible oils.
Source: SEA of India
Source: SEA of India
-6.99
-2.88
-0.77
-0.50
-0.38
-0.08
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.63
0.88
1.29
1.32
1.64
2.04
2.05
2.44
3.41
3.97
5.26
12.44
-10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00
MENTHA OIL (CHANDAUSI)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
RUBBER (KOCHI)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
JEERA (UNJHA)
CHILLI (GUNTUR)
MILD STEEL INGOTS (GHAZIABAD)
WHEAT (DELHI)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)
CHANA (DELHI)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
MASOOR (INDORE)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
CARDAMOM (VANDANMEDU)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
GOLD KG (MUMBAI)
SILVER (DELHI)
* Previous closing as on 07.08.13
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 60.58 61.77 60.52 61.50
EUR/INR 80.80 82.26 80.74 81.59
GBP/INR 94.25 95.56 93.87 95.41
JPY/INR 62.50 63.56 62.29 62.66
(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
News Flows of last week
15th Aug: Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region weakened in August
15th Aug: U.S. homebuilder confidence neared an eight-year high in August
15th Aug: U.S. industrial output unchanged in July
15th Aug: U.S. Fed balance sheet expanded for second week
15th Aug: China, Japan lead record outflow from Treasuries in June
15th Aug: U.S consumer prices rose broadly in July
15th Aug: The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell
to a near six-year low last week
EUR/INR (AUGUST) contract closed at 81.59 on 14thAugust'13. The contract made its high of `82.26 on 13th August'13 and a low of `80.74 on 12th August'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 81.22.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.96. One can buy around 81.80 for a target of 82.85 with the stop loss of 81.25
`
JPY/INR (AUGUST) contract closed at 62.66 on 14th August'13. The contract made its high of `63.56 on 13th August'13 and a low of `62.29 on 13thAugust'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 62.46.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.35. One can buy around 63.00 for a target of 64.10 with the stop loss of ̀ 62.45.
`
Market Stance
The rupee fell to a record low on Friday and RBI measures to tighten capital
outflows and curb gold imports were seen as unlikely to prop up the currency and
could even spark further selling if they spook foreign investors. The government
late on Wednesday restricted how much its citizens and companies can invest
abroad to reduce pressure on the rupee, while targeting the current account
deficit by banning imports of gold coins and medallions among other measures.
However, the capital restrictions could adversely impact company profits and
could lead to stronger capital restrictions that would scare off foreign investors
at a time when the expected tapering of US monetary stimulus is already
creating uncertainty in emerging markets. To prop up the rupee in the near-
term, markets would need assurances that India can attract foreign flows in an
increasingly difficult global environment. Foreign investors have sold a net $11.6
billion of Indian debt and equities since late May.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (AUGUST) contract closed at 61.50 on 14th August'13. The contract made its high of `61.77 on 13th August'13 and a low of `60.52 on 12th August'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 61.16.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 68.00. One can buy around 61.45 for a target of 62.45 with the stop loss of 60.95.
`
GBP/INR (AUGUST) contract closed at 95.41 on 14th August'13. The contract made its high of `95.56 on 13th August'13 and a low of `93.87 on 12th August'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at ̀ 94.28
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 75.19. One can buy around 96.25 for a target of ̀ 97.30 with the stop loss of ̀ 95.70.
`
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
GBP/INR JPY/INR
14
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Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event PREVIOUS21st Aug: GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing £10.234B21st Aug: USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) 5.08M21st Aug: USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) -1.20%21st Aug: USD FOMC Minutes22nd Aug: USD Jackson Hole Symposium22nd Aug: EUR Markit PMI Composite 50.522nd Aug: EUR Markit Services PMI 49.822nd Aug: USD Initial Jobless Claims 320K22nd Aug: USD Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.70%23rd Aug: USD Jackson Hole Symposium23rd Aug: EUR (Germany) Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) -1.60%23rd Aug: EUR (Germany) Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) -0.30%23rd Aug: GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.30%23rd Aug: GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 0.30%23rd Aug: EUR Consumer Confidence -17.423rd Aug: USD New Home Sales (MoM) 0.497M
IPOIPO
INDIAN IPO NEWS
Muthoot Finance files draft paper with Sebi to raise Rs 300 crMuthoot Finance, which lends against gold, has filed the draft prospectus with market regulator Sebi for public issuance of secured Non-Convertible
Debentures (NCDs) of up to ̀ 300 crore. The NCD issue aims at aggregating up to ̀ 150 crore with an option to retain over-subscription of up to ̀ 150 crore, as
per draft prospectus filed with Sebi showed. Funds raised through this issue would be used for financing activities, including lending and investments,
besides utilising them to repay existing loans, capital expenditure plans and to meet working capital requirements. ICICI Securities is the lead managers to
the issue, while Link Intime India is registrar to the issue. Muthoot Finance, is one of the largest gold financing company in India, with a market share of over
20 per cent as of March 31, 2012. The entity has 4,163 branches and employs about 24,945 people.
GMR Energy to float ̀ 1,000-cr public offerBangalore-based GMR Infra is planning to raise equity by going in for an initial public offer of its power business, GMR Energy. It is in talks with investment
bankers and is likely to file a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) by the end of the month. The investment banks that are taking part in the deal are Merrill
Lynch and Australian bank Macquarie.
CRISIL assigns 4/5 grade to Wonderla Holidays IPOCRISIL Research has assigned a CRISIL IPO grade of '4/5' to the proposed IPO of Wonderla Holidays. This grade indicates that the fundamentals of the IPO are
above average relative to the other listed equity securities in India. However, this grade is not an opinion on whether the issue price is appropriate in
relation to the issue fundamentals. The grade is driven by Wonderla's established position in the Indian amusement park industry. The company has been
present in the amusement park industry since 2002 and currently operates two parks one in Kochi (Kerala) and one in Bengaluru (Karnataka). Over the years,
by continuously adding new attractions, by keeping the entry charges affordable and by maintaining safety and hygiene standards, the company has been
able to generate increased footfalls including repeat visitors as well as attract organised visits from schools, colleges and corporates.
Tribunal quashes Sebi order against NSDL in IPO scamThe Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) today quashed a regulatory order against top depository NSDL, which was passed by Sebi in December 2008, but
implemented about two-and-a-half years later in July 2011 after initially being dismissed as 'null and void'. The orders required National Securities
Depository Limited (NSDL) to conduct an independent inquiry to fix individual responsibility for failure at NSDL in the wake of IPO and demat scams between
2002-2006. NSDL board was also directed to conduct an independent audit of its systems and operations to identify the remedial measures.
NMDC's Legacy Iron cancels AUD 25 million rights issue Legacy Iron Ore, the Australian arm of state-owned NMDC, has cancelled its rights issue citing 'weak market' conditions. Legacy Iron had earlier announced
that it intends to raise AUD 25 million by way of 3 for 4 non-renounceable entitlement offer. The Legacy Iron's Offer Price was fixed at 5.7 cents per new
share. Whereas the share price dropped since then and currently trading at 5.4 cents by touching 5.0 cents apiece at one point of time.
Sebi likely to act against DLF in IPO case by September 2The securities market regulator Sebi is set to take action against DLF by September 2, nearly two years after it began investigating India's biggest real estate
developer for alleged irregularities and disclosure errors in its initial public offer documents. DLF had raised about ̀ 9,000 crore through its IPO in 2007, but failed
to disclose in its final issue prospectus the name of an associate company against which a criminal case of fraud was filed, a Sebi official said. Sebi's counsel Neeraj
Malhotra has informed the Delhi High Court that the regulator is through with its investigations and ready to initiate action against the developer.
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Just Dial Service provider 4699.46 950.11 5-Jun-13 530.00 590.00 672.60 26.91
Repco Home Fin Finance 1578.86 270.39 1-Apr-13 172.00 165.00 254.00 47.67
V-Mart Retail Trading 304.60 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 169.60 -19.24
Bharti Infra. Telecom 28200.23 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 149.30 -32.14
PC Jeweller Jewellary 1688.02 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 94.25 -30.19
CARE Rating Agency 1640.77 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 574.70 -23.37
Tara Jewels Jewellary 218.76 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 89.00 -61.30
VKS Projects Engineering 308.70 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 4.90 -91.09
Speciality Restaruants Restaurants 598.51 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 127.45 -15.03
T B Z Jewellary 1134.57 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 170.10 41.75
MT Educare Miscellaneous 378.71 99.00 12-Apr-12 80.00 86.05 95.20 19.00
NBCC Construction 1428.60 124.97 12-Apr-12 106.00 100.00 119.05 12.31
Olympic card. Media 82.04 24.75 28-Mar-12 30.00 29.95 50.30 67.67
Multi Comm. Exc. Exchange 1291.83 663.31 9-Mar-12 1032.00 1387.00 253.30 -75.46
Company Sector M.Cap(In Cr.) Issue Size(in Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)
*
IPO TRACKER
*Closing prices as on 14-08-2013
15
16
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MUTUAL FUND
NEWS
Mfs see net redemption of 98500cr in last 2 months
There have been redemptions in money market funds and income funds in the last two months in the mutual fund industry. Equities, debt, gold or any asset class
what the mutual fund was selling it has got a clampdown. In the last two months, especially after July 16 when the Reserve Bank India (RBI) started pulling up, net
redemptions were nearly ̀ 98,500 crore. Out of that, major chunk came from money market funds, which saw redemptions of nearly ̀ 90,000 crore. Income funds
saw net redemptions of nearly ̀ 7,000 crore. Equity mutual funds have been seeing redemption, but the pressure has lowered. It was nearly ̀ 700 crore in the last
two months. Assets under management (AUMs) have eroded completely led by huge redemptions seen in the last two months. AUMs of the entire mutual fund
industry are down by over one lakh crore in the last two months. The drop in AUMs is led by income funds.
HDFC MF launches capital protection oriented income scheme
HDFC Mutual Fund announced the launch of HDFC CPO - I - 36M August 2013, a Plan under HDFC Capital Protection Oriented Fund - Series I, a close-ended capital
protection oriented income scheme. The scheme would be open for initial subscription between August 16, 2013 and August 30, 2013. The objective of the
scheme, HDFC Capital Protection Oriented Fund Series I is to generate returns by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market securities which mature on or
before the date of maturity of the Scheme. The Scheme also seeks to invest a portion of the portfolio in equity and equity related securities to achieve capital
appreciation.
JPMorgan MF introduces India Fixed Maturity Plan
JPMorgan Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of JPMorgan India Fixed Maturity Plan -Series 24, a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for
subscription on August 16, 2013, and closes on August 30, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income through investments in Debt
Securities /Money Market Instruments and Government of India Securities (“GoI Securities”) maturing on or before the maturity date of the Scheme. However,
there can be no assurance that income can be generated, regular or otherwise, or that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.
Deutsche MF introduces Fixed Maturity Plan- Series 33 (DFMP-33)
Deutsche Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of DWS Fixed Maturity Plan- Series 33 (DFMP-33), a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for
subscription on Aug 13, 2013, and closes on Aug 20, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in debt and money market
instruments maturing on or before the date of the maturity of the Scheme.
Principal Mutual Fund revises exit load under two schemes
Principal Mutual Fund has announced revision of exit load under Principal Debt Savings Fund and Principal Retail Equity Savings Fund. Effective from August 13,
2013, both the schemes will charge an exit load of 1 percent if redeemed or switched out within 30 days from the date of allotment and nil thereafter.
Birla Sun Life MF declares dividend under Fixed Term Plan - Series EJ
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has declared dividend under dividend option of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series EJ. The record date for dividend is August 19,
2013. The rate of dividend will be ̀ 0.1000 per unit on the face value of ̀ 10 per unit. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in
a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.
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NFOs WATCH
Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount
13-Aug-2013 20-Aug-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-DWS Fixed Maturity Plan - Series 33 (685 Days) - Regular Plan (G)
Kumaresh Ramkrishnan
To generate income by investing in debt and money market instruments maturing on or before the date of the maturity of the Scheme.
12-Aug-2013 26-Aug-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-ICICI Prudential Capital Protection Oriented-Sr IV Plan B (36M)-Regular (G)
Rajat Chandak / Rahul Goswami /Atul Patel
To seek to protect capital by investing a portion of the portfolio in highest rated debt securities and money market instruments and also to provide capital appreciation by investing the balance in equity and equity related securities. The debt securities would mature on or before the maturity of the Scheme.
07-Aug-2013 19-Aug-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-DSP BlackRock Fixed Term Plan - Series 31 (36M) Direct Plan (G)
Dhawal DalalTo seek to generate returns and capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market securities. The Scheme will invest only in such securities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the Schemes.
18
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
ICICI Prudential Service Industries Fund - G 22.35 30-Nov-2005 140.95 14.56 16.71 34.64 8.58 11.00 1.68 0.60 0.33 61.58 28.64 2.05 7.73
Axis Equity Fund - Growth 12.40 05-Jan-2010 547.42 -3.50 1.64 14.50 3.82 6.14 1.73 0.83 0.13 75.91 8.51 4.75 10.83
Birla Sun Life India GenNext Fund - G 30.48 05-Aug-2005 150.15 -6.69 -1.56 13.81 7.62 14.89 1.84 0.77 0.11 49.98 38.65 5.05 6.32
BNP Paribas Equity Fund - Growth 39.65 23-Sep-2004 119.26 -0.63 0.81 13.64 6.63 16.75 1.57 0.71 0.08 79.41 13.28 N.A 7.30
Tata Ethical Fund - Plan A - Growth 75.08 24-May-1996 103.22 1.64 2.21 12.67 4.86 16.22 1.28 0.50 0.13 69.37 18.91 N.A 11.73
Franklin India High Growth Companies Fund - G 13.87 26-Jul-2007 523.62 -3.75 -3.14 12.64 2.57 5.55 1.74 0.70 0.04 47.66 36.54 4.60 11.20
Axis Focused 25 Fund - Growth 11.20 29-Jun-2012 141.48 -6.35 -5.25 10.56 N.A 10.59 1.77 0.82 0.03 82.87 7.48 2.36 7.30
EQUITY (Diversified)
BALANCED
INCOME FUND
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 14/08/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
ULTRA SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM FUND
Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 54.85 09-Oct-1995 398.82 -4.46 -2.95 11.35 2.41 15.23 1.24 0.09 30.97 30.52 9.17 29.34
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 54.63 03-Nov-1999 501.94 -3.17 -2.25 10.30 7.92 13.10 1.25 0.03 45.83 18.08 1.94 34.15
FT India Balanced Fund - Growth 52.76 10-Dec-1999 206.99 -5.43 -3.51 5.42 3.66 12.92 1.31 -0.01 52.87 14.21 0.24 32.68
Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 94.13 08-Oct-1995 545.88 -4.48 -2.69 5.04 4.96 15.36 1.45 N.A 55.14 17.54 0.56 26.76
Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 329.06 10-Feb-1995 585.45 -5.80 -4.47 4.90 2.88 20.76 1.44 -0.01 51.60 13.60 0.73 34.07
UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 82.39 20-Jan-1995 913.59 -5.37 -4.84 4.21 1.42 15.64 1.30 -0.03 53.88 16.78 1.53 27.81
Canara Robeco Balance - Growth 66.91 01-Feb-1993 200.20 -4.62 -4.22 2.84 3.41 9.89 1.31 -0.05 48.20 18.93 2.57 30.29
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Morgan Stanley Active Bond Fund - Reg - G 12.53 03-Jun-2009 411.42 -30.79 -6.95 -20.67 7.58 11.26 7.29 5.51 0.48 0.14 1051.00 7.95
IDFC SSIF - Invt. Plan - Plan F - Growth 12.85 16-Jul-2010 2480.44 -76.05 -24.56 -29.64 2.82 8.95 8.81 8.49 0.37 0.17 2789.00 9.48
IDFC SSIF - Invt Plan - Reg - Growth 28.55 14-Jul-2000 2480.44 -76.09 -24.58 -29.65 2.58 8.74 8.23 8.34 0.37 0.16 2789.00 9.48
IDFC D B F- Plan A - Growth 23.81 25-Jun-2002 6885.78 -75.91 -24.94 -30.39 2.32 8.53 9.05 8.10 0.37 0.16 2789.00 9.50
UTI Bond Fund - Growth 35.20 04-May-1998 2968.61 -60.56 -14.84 -36.34 1.57 8.40 9.06 8.58 0.44 0.10 1633.00 N.A
ICICI Prudential LTP - Reg - Cumulative 25.03 28-Mar-2002 578.86 10.50 10.62 7.79 8.43 8.38 7.77 8.39 0.06 0.44 18.00 11.48
Tata Dynamic Bond Fund - Plan A - G 17.50 03-Sep-2003 323.68 -55.36 -19.41 -38.66 2.71 8.12 7.20 5.78 0.44 0.07 1664.00 9.89
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Birla Sun Life Short Term Opportunities Fund - Reg - G 19.19 24-Apr-2003 675.56 -4.12 10.97 -10.79 8.80 9.34 9.56 6.52 0.22 0.29 N.A 11.29
Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 14.17 25-Mar-2009 825.96 -7.55 5.78 -14.39 8.68 8.96 9.52 8.26 0.24 0.24 N.A 12.5
Morgan Stanley Short Term Bond Fund - Reg - G 13.51 26-May-2009 431.16 -9.52 3.54 -12.11 6.48 7.91 8.42 7.47 0.19 0.15 361 9.21
Tata Short Term Bond Fund - Plan A - G 22.03 08-Aug-2002 270.97 -8.44 5.29 -13.03 6.03 7.87 8.13 7.43 0.18 0.14 489 10.5
Birla Sun Life Short Term Fund - DAP 13.55 06-Mar-2009 5347.06 -4.66 9.27 -11.54 5.93 7.82 8.42 7.09 0.17 0.17 N.A 10.47
Birla Sun Life Short Term Fund - Reg - G 44.15 03-Mar-1997 5347.06 -4.65 9.26 -11.55 5.93 7.82 8.42 9.44 0.17 0.17 N.A 10.47
JPMorgan India Short Term Income Fund - G 13.06 25-Mar-2010 1282.78 1.92 6.1 -9.04 5.79 7.85 8.54 8.18 0.13 0.19 825 10.620
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Union KBC Ultra Short Term Debt Fund - G 1118.55 24-Apr-2012 209.08 8.46 10.19 5.14 8.37 8.58 N.A 8.95 0.05 0.63 63.00 N.A
Templeton India Ultra Short Bond Fund - Retail - G 15.40 18-Dec-2007 4477.75 5.46 9.79 3.42 8.31 8.56 8.79 7.93 0.05 0.56 N.A 8.67
Templeton India Low Duration Fund - G 13.06 26-Jul-2010 2367.30 2.52 8.37 0.03 8.22 8.72 9.20 9.13 0.08 0.44 110.00 11.69
UTI Treasury Advantage Fund - Reg - G 3040.83 12-Jul-1999 9965.58 9.37 11.23 4.42 8.16 8.37 8.52 8.21 0.05 0.54 57.00 N.A
Principal Debt Opportunities Fund - Conservative - G 1914.82 14-Sep-2004 313.06 5.56 8.84 3.32 8.04 8.54 8.86 7.55 0.05 0.59 87.00 11.56
Tata Floater Fund - Plan A - Growth 1805.43 06-Sep-2005 3599.26 7.83 10.18 2.32 7.91 8.44 8.84 7.72 0.06 0.46 90.00 10.96
IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund - Reg - G 16.75 17-Jan-2006 1974.22 4.36 9.40 1.15 7.90 8.54 9.18 7.05 0.07 0.48 106.00 11.09
Annualised
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