HAPPY BUDDHA PURNIMA

2013: Issue 372, Week: 27th - 30th MayA Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)

WISE M NEY

Bra

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sm

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94

®

(Saurabh Jain)

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

Fixed Deposit 16

Mutual Fund 17-18

EDITORIAL STAFF

Editor Saurabh Jain

Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla

+Editorial Team

Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka

Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth

Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi

Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi

Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey

Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra

Mudit Goyal

Content Editor Kamla Devi

Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal

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lobal equity markets saw a steep fall ever seen in the recent weeks that got

capitulated from the Japanese equity markets and engulfed all the global Gmarkets. Weak manufacturing data from Chinese economy, surging

Japanese gilt yields along with different interpretations of the Fed minutes released

on 22nd May and statements made by the head of Bank of Japan were the main causes

of the fall in equities. Chinese manufacturing activity showed its first contraction in

the last seven months thereby indicating that the activity is further weakening. On

the contrary, Germany business confidence rose for the first time after February,

adding sign that growth in the Europe's largest economy is gathering pace. The

German economy grew just by 0.1 percent in the first quarter after a 0.7 percent

contraction in the final three months of 2012. Moreover economic data from the US is

generally moving in the right direction, and the key markers of economic health in the

U.S. are still showing signs of life. So, one can assume that the world's biggest

economy is on the recovery path but at a slower pace.

Back at home, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their record net

purchases of Indian stocks despite sharp share falls sparked by worries that the US

Federal Reserve would unwind its monetary stimulus earlier than expected. FIIs have

bought a net total of over $14 billion so far in 2013, sparking a rally since mid April. The

mood of the domestic markets looks jovial as inflation is trending downwards and

there are expectations of timely monsoon. Shrinking inflation and sluggish growth

indicators have raised hopes that the RBI may go for further monetary easing in its

June 17th Policy meet. Moreover, in order to attract more foreign flow, RBI plans to

allow exporters and importers to rebook and cancel up to 50 per cent of their total

hedged exposure from the present cap of 25 per cent, this may boost the confidence

of the investors.

On the commodities front, bullion counter is expected to move higher as lower level

buying and renewed physical demand may keep the prices well supported. In the

recent testimony, the Fed offered no signs but reiterated that it may either increase

or reduce the pace of its bond buying depending on the economic conditions. Crude oil

prices will try to get cues from the global demand and tensions in the Middle East

along with the outcome of the key economic indicators from the US and the Euro Zone.

Meanwhile, the U.S. oil demand rose slightly in April with the consumption still at its

second lowest level for the month in 17 years. This week the investors will have a close

eye on the various economic data such the US consumer confidence and the US GDP

figures along with the Euro-German unemployment rate and CPI, which will impact

the movement of metals and energy. In the agro pack, Jeera prices are likely to move

up in the coming days on hopes of overseas demand and lower arrivals.

From The Desk Of Editor

4

NOTES:

1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.

3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

TREND SHEET

Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate S1 R1 S2 R2 Cl.

Price Trend Trend S/l

Changed Changed

SENSEX 19674 UP 02.05.13 19736 19500 19100 18800

S&P NIFTY 5967 UP 02.05.13 5999 6000 5900 5770

CNX IT 6378 DOWN 17.04.13 6236 6550 6700 6850

CNX BANK 12636 UP 25.04.13 12727 12600 12200 11900

ACC 1206 DOWN 17.01.13 1359 1230 1260 1300

BHARTIAIRTEL 300 UP 09.05.13 325 310 300 290

BHEL 196 DOWN 01.11.12 227 195 205 210

CIPLA 415 UP 11.04.13 406 400 390 385

DLF 211 DOWN 21.03.13 239 255 260 265

HINDALCO 109 UP 16.05.13 111 105 101 98

ICICI BANK 1172 UP 25.04.13 1177 1140 1110 1090

INFOSYS 2360 DOWN 17.04.13 2284 2450 2550 2650

ITC 332 UP 04.03.11 172 315 305 300

L&T 1418 DOWN 23.05.13 1418 1480 1500 1520

MARUTI 1647 UP 17.04.13 1494 1640 1600 1560

NTPC 148 UP 02.05.13 160 152 148 145

ONGC 328 UP 17.04.13 329 320 315 310

RELIANCE 784 DOWN 28.02.13 814 840 860 870

TATASTEEL 300 DOWN 07.02.13 390 340 350 360

NEWS

MEETING DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE

27-May-13 WOCKPHARMA Results/Dividend

27-May-13 COALINDIA Results

28-May-13 GITANJALI Results/Dividend

28-May-13 NHPC Results/Dividend

28-May-13 NEYVELILIG Results

28-May-13 POWERGRID Results/Dividend

28-May-13 SUNPHARMA Results/Dividend

28-May-13 HINDALCO Results/Dividend

28-May-13 GAIL Results/Dividend

28-May-13 ABAN Results/Dividend

28-May-13 DLF Results/Dividend

28-May-13 CESC Results

28-May-13 CENTEXT Results

29-May-13 SJVN Results/Dividend

29-May-13 ONGC Results/Dividend

29-May-13 NMDC Results/Dividend

29-May-13 RENUKA Results

29-May-13 BPCL Results/Dividend

29-May-13 CIPLA Results/Dividend

29-May-13 CANBK Results

30-May-13 UNITECH Results/Dividend

30-May-13 PFC Results/Dividend

30-May-13 SAIL Results/Dividend

30-May-13 SUZLON Results

30-May-13 M&M Results/Dividend

30-May-13 IOC Results/Dividend

30-May-13 FORTIS Results

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

DOMESTIC NEWS

Metal

•Adhunik Metaliks has commenced commercial operation of its 270 MW

second unit of coal-based thermal power plant in Jharkhand.

•Tata Steel has set up a new subsidiary, Tata Steel Odisha, to spearhead its

new Greenfield (6) six million tonnes steel plant in Odisha's Kainganagar.

The project will be implemented in two phases of 3 million tonnes each.

Some `22,800 crore worth of project financing was tied up with a

consortium of 21 banks and financial institutions.

•JSW Steel Ltd is looking at acquiring coal mines in Africa, US and

Canada. The company is looking at acquiring iron ore and coal mines

in both India and abroad as it looks to increase self-sufficiency in

feeding its steel plants.

Oil & Gas

•Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) aims to restart a 60,000 barrels-per-day

fire-hit crude unit at its Visakhapatnam (Vizag) REFINERY by the end of June.

Textile

•Siyaram Silk Mills Ltd has signed as many as 27 Franchise agreements during

the first two months of the current fiscal, in its bid to expand its retail

footprint. Siyaram Silk Mills had set a target of signing 90 franchise deals

during 2013-14. It is also targeting 500 outlets by 2016-17, against the

existing 120.

Power

•NHPC's 132 MW hydel plant at Teesta in Sikkim would now supply

electricity to the National Grid. Country's largest hydro power producer

informed the stock exchange that 132 MW plant can now sell electricity

generated from the station.

Telecom

•Reliance Jio has announced an investment of `3,000 crore in West Bengal

towards the roll out of fourth generation (4G) broadband services in the state.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

•Existing home sales in the U.S. saw a modest increase in the month of April.

Existing home sales climbed 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual

rate of 4.97 million in April from an upwardly revised 4.94 million in March.

•US new home sales climbed 2.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual

rate of 454,000 in April from the revised March rate of 444,000.

Economists had expected new home sales to rise to an annual rate of

425,000 compared to the 417,000 originally reported for the previous

month, reflecting a 1.9 percent increase.

•US initial jobless claims fell to 340,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the

previous week's revised figure of 363,000. Economists had expected

jobless claims to drop to about 345,000 from the 360,000 originally

reported for the previous week.

•The U.K. economy avoided recession in the first quarter as initially

estimated. Gross domestic product grew 0.3 percent sequentially in the

first quarter, offsetting the last quarter's 0.3 percent fall.

•China's manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in seven

months in May amid poor demand, fueling concerns that the weakness in

the economy may persist for some more time. The headline purchasing

managers' index, an indicator of the health of the factory sector, fell to a

seven-month low of 49.6 in May from 50.4 in April.

•According to the flash results of a survey by Markit Economics, Eurozone's

private sector activity continued to decline in May, but at a slower pace

than in the previous month. The composite output index, that measures

performance of the both manufacturing and service sectors, rose to 47.7 in

May from 46.9 in April. Economists expected the reading to rise to 47.2.

®

5

BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

SMC Trend

SMC Trend

FMCGHealthcare

FTSE 100CAC 40

Auto BankRealty

Cap GoodsCons Durable

Oil & GasPower

NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500

NikkeiStrait times

Hang SengShanghai

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)

ITMetal

Down SidewaysUp

SMC Trend

Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

®

958.301034.50

2582.30

1629.90

-257.20-310.00

-209.10-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday

FII Activity MF Activity

-3.29

-2.83

-3.46 -3.50-3.26 -3.35

-4.00

-3.50

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE

Smallcap

Nifty

Junior

S&P CNX

500

-2.87

-4.47

-6.79

-3.95

-0.65

-3.88

1.22

-3.43

-5.44

-3.22

-10.40

-12.00

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index

Cons Durable Index

FMCG Index

Healthcare Index

IT Index Metal Index

Oil & Gas Index

Power Index

Realty Index

-0.17

0.40

0.00

-3.68

-1.71 -1.79

1.06

0.13

-0.30

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

Nasdaq Comp.

Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.

FTSE 100 CAC 40

4.273.55

1.76

0.340.00

-12.59

-10.24

-6.98 -6.86-6.18

-14.00

-12.00

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

Sun Pharma.Inds.

Coal India TCS Infosys Larsen & Toubro

St Bk of India NTPC Jindal Steel Tata Power Co.

4.123.56

2.35

1.280.34

-18.23

-16.37-15.46

-14.07

-12.64

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

Sun Pharma.Inds.

Coal India HCL Technologies

TCS Infosys JP Associates Ranbaxy Labs.

DLF Reliance Infra.

Larsen & Toubro

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year.

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

6®

Face Value (`) 10.00

52 Week High/Low 494.85/362.05

M.Cap (` Cr.) 6193.62

EPS (`) 93.82

P/E Ratio (times) 4.32

Stock Exchange BSE

VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

CORPORATION BANK CMP: 405.05 Upside: 21%Target Price: 488

Investment Rationale quarter ago and 65.3% a year ago.

•Business growth of the bank rebounded sharply to •Return of Assets (ROA) was at 0.88%, and Return of

20% at ̀ 284722 crore at end March 2013 from 12% Equity (ROE) was at 16.27% for the year ended

at end December 2012 and accelerated from 16% March 2013.

at end March 2012. The business growth was •During the current financial year, the Bank driven by 18.16% YoY growth in advances to opened 207 Branches across the country, while it `118717 crore, while the deposits increased added 54 new branches during Q4 FY2013. The 21.94% to ̀ 166005 crore at end March 2013. bank has a network of 1707 branches and 1425

ATMs at end March 2013. The bank also has 2 •Current Account Savings Account (CASA) ratio of the representative offices in Dubai & Hong Kong. The bank improved to 21.7% at end March 2013 bank proposes to open 300 new branches, while it compared to 20.5% a quarter ago and 18.9% a year is also planning to roll out 2000 ATMs in Fy2014. ago.

Valuation•Net Interest Margin (NIM) of the bank stood at

2.31% in the quarter ended March 2013 The bank has managed to grow at a decent pace in the

past few years and maintained a high quality asset •Gross Non-Performing Assets (NPA) stood at 1.72% profile. On the estimated book value of ̀ 696.13 for FY14E and Net NPA at 1.19% at the end of FY2012-13. In

absolute terms the Gross NPAs stood at `2048.23 and one year average P/BV of 0.70x, we expect the stock

to see a price target of 488 in one year time frame. crore and Net NPA stood at ̀ 1410.88 crore.

•The bank restructured its advances worth `1254.5

crore in Q4FY2013. The net outstanding standard

restructured advances eased to `7218.6 crore at

end March 2013 from ̀ 7529 crore at end December

2012, as a result of upgradation of restructured

advances in line with the RBI guidelines.

•Capital Adequacy ratio was at 12.33% with the Tier

I capital of 8.33% at end March 2013 compared to

12.57% with Tier I of 8.08% at end December 2012.

•The provision coverage ratio stood at 62.06% at

end March 2013 as compared to 58.02% at a

` in cr

Particular Mar 2013 Mar 2014E Mar 2015E

Net Total Income 5033.79 5839.95 6753.35

Pre-Tax Profit 1685.60 2119.30 2529.76

Net Profit 1434.68 1560.11 1802.45

EPS 96.74 103.35 119.95

BVPS 488.72 696.13 788.06

ROE 16.08 15.48 15.97

P/BV Chart

Face Value (`) 10.00

52 Week High/Low 386.00 / 291.20

M.Cap ` Cr.) 194638.64

EPS (`) 25.20

P/E Ratio (times) 12.23

P/B Ratio (times) 4.81

Stock Exchange BSE

` in cr

Particular Mar 2012 Mar 2013E Mar 2014E

Revenue 62,415.43 68,335.03 73,771.75

EBITDA 15,667.81 18,602.41 20,401.06

EBIT 13,698.59 18,113.53 20,246.24

Pre-Tax Profit 21,254.88 24,389.39 26,617.34

Net Profit 14,788.20 16,612.23 17,745.28

EPS 23.47 26.45 28.46

BVPS 64.04 79.41 95.46

ROE 39.90 35.84 31.96

VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale would be spent on a combination of projects,

including development of five to six projects. The •Coal India Limited (CIL)'s output is set to rise to a money would also be spent on augmenting five-year high. It has set target to produce 492 infrastructure and mines expansion.million tonnes (MT) of coal during the current

fiscal against the production of 452 mt in 2012-13. •The company accounts for 80 percent of the total

Besides, the company would also increase the coal production in India. It operates 81 mining

overall offtake to consumers by 7.5 per cent to areas and 467 mines across 21 coalfields.

500 mt, against 465 mt in 2012-13. Valuation

•The company began FY14 on a positive note, The company is sitting on a huge cash reserve of fulfilled its targets in both the facets coal off-take about `61000 crore. It has lined up `50,000 crore and production. As a whole it produced 35.75 investment plans for the next five years, including a million tonnes during April 2013 against 33.81 mt capital expenditure of `24,500 crore. Since 2007 the during the same month previous year registering a company has been raising coal price every two years growth of 5.7%. Coal off-take at 39.89 mt during and last was in July 2011, any increase in coal price the month was up by 2.13 mt compared to 37.76 going forward would benefit the company. We expect mt in the same month last year. the stock to see a price target of `400 in one year

•The company's 18 mining projects received a go- time frame on a one year average P/E of 14.06x on

ahead from the government. Out of these, 14 FY14 (E) EPS of ̀ 28.46.

have received environmental clearances while 4

got forestry clearances. The total investment in

these projects would be ̀ 1347 crore.

•Coal India has received 32 proposals from

Indonesia, Australia, the US, Mozambique, Chile

and Columbia in response to its expression of

interest for acquiring overseas coal assets. The

company is looking at a majority stake or outright

purchase of these assets.

•The company has huge cash and plans to invest

about `5,000 crore during the 2013-14. The sum

P/E Chart

COAL INDIA LIMITED CMP: 308.15 Upside: 30%Target Price: 400

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

7

The stock closed at ̀ 54.85 on 23rd May 2013. It made a 52-week low at ̀ 36.80 on

30th August 2012 and a 52-week high at ̀ 69.75 on 20th December 2012. The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 79.32.

After touching a level of 67, it fell drastically and took support near to its

previous monthly lows of around 37 levels. It reversed sharply with volumes and

formed double bottom, which is a reversal pattern. One can Buy in the range of

52-54 levels with closing below stop loss of 49 levels for the target of 60-65

levels.

EQUITY

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

The stock closed at ̀ 313.20 on 23rd May 2013. It made a 52-week low at ̀ 252.50

on 28th March 2013 and a 52-week high of ̀ 346.50 on 23th August 2012. The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 308.34.

It has formed inverted head and shoulder but could not breach its neckline

earlier and fell down marginally. Again it managed to overcome its resistance

zone, which is near to 320 levels, which show buying interest is developing once

again. There is a possibility of sharp breakout in the near term. One can Buy in

the range of 308-311 levels with closing below stop loss of 294 levels for the

target of 340-345 levels.

The stock closed at ̀ 136.90 on 23rd May 2013. It made a 52-week low at ̀ 113.95

on 04th June 2012 and a 52-week high at ̀ 166.40 on 19th August 2012. The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 123.01.

As we can see on charts every time there is a fall, it again gave a sharp pullback

to sustain above its 200 EMA, which is a strong support for this particular scrip.

Last week there were negative sentiments in the market but it managed to

sustain at current levels, which determines its strength. One can Buy 132-134

levels with closing below stop loss of 125 levels for the target of 145-150 levels.

Adani Power Limited

Exide Industries Limited

CESC Limited

®

DERIVATIVES

BASIS GAP IN NIFTY

TATASTEEL (MAY FUTURE)

Buy: Above `320

Target: `329

Stop loss: `316

VOLTAS (MAY FUTURE)

Buy: Above `86.50

Target: `90.50

Stop loss: `84.50

PNB

Buy MAY 800 CALL 20.00

Buy MAY 780 PUT 10.00

Lot size: 500

Upside BEP: 830.00

Downside BEP: 750.00

Max. Profit: Unlimited

Max. Loss: `15000.00 (30.00*500)

OPTIONSTRATEGY

FUTURESTRATEGY

JSWSTEEL

Buy MAY 720. CALL 11.00

Sell MAY 740. CALL 4.00

Lot size: 500

BEP: 727.00

Max. Profit: `6500.00 (13.00*500)

Max. Loss: `3500.00 (7.00*500)

ITC (MAY FUTURE)

Sell: Below `328

Target: `320

Stop loss: `332

Markets remained choppy and volatile, throughout the week. Hereafter the range of 5900-6100 will remain crucial in the near term, and the move is

expected to remain sideways as indicated by option open interest concentration. If Nifty slips below the 5900 mark, it could slide to 5800 levels due to

increased selling pressure. On the contrary, the index may face stiff resistance at 6050-6100 levels. The put-call ratio of open interest closed lower at 1.16

levels. The options open interest concentration continued to be at the 6100-strike call with the highest open interest of above 80 lakh shares. Among the

put options, the 5900-strike taking the total open interest to 84 lakh shares, with the highest open interest among put options. The Implied Volatility (IV) of

call options closed at 18.05%, while the average IV of put options closed at 17.80%. Nifty Historical Volatility (HV) rose to 21.50% from 19.10%. Nifty VIX rose

to 18.79% from 17.00%. Nifty is expected to bounce back at 6100 levels, and May expiry is expected to expire in the band of 5900-6100.

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS

(Derivative segment) `(Cr)

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST WEEK

(Derivative segment)

HCLTECH

Buy MAY 760 CALL 4.90

Buy MAY 720 PUT 2.90

Lot size: 500

Upside BEP: 767.80

Downside BEP: 712.20

Max. Profit: Unlimited

Max. Loss: `3900.00 (7.80*500)

VOLATILITY STRATEGYBULLISH STRATEGY

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

®

401700753650

932550 10562501316350

2985200

5863150

6954500

6144900

4972700

4147850

2582500

38570003663900

7061250 67654507265400

5386000

3113450

1809200

476950107850

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400

Call Put

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

10-May 11-May 13-May 14-May 15-May 16-May 17-May 20-May 21-May 22-May 23-May

BUY86.8%

SELL13.2%

34.40

-237.86

423.40

189.73

-641.81

-357.76

1068.40

530.38

16.04

747.51

-800.00

-600.00

-400.00

-200.00

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

11-May 13-May 14-May 15-May 16-May 17-May 20-May 21-May 22-May 23-May

8

9

BHARTIARTL 9273000 9325000 0.56 1.64 0.97 -0.67 34.69 33.72 -0.97

DLF 21210000 21805000 2.81 0.38 0.41 0.03 38.79 56.43 17.64

HINDALCO 26206000 24520000 -6.43 0.85 0.83 -0.02 34.18 36.81 2.63

HINDUNILVR 7732500 7238500 -6.39 1.33 1.33 0.00 6.66 8.76 2.10

ICICIBANK 8084000 7214250 -10.76 1.20 0.93 -0.27 27.38 27.23 -0.15

IDEA 7690000 6712000 -12.72 0.88 0.91 0.03 33.89 34.67 0.78

INFY 3232875 3270500 1.16 0.56 0.65 0.09 21.02 20.98 -0.04

ITC 25355000 25269000 -0.34 0.71 0.78 0.07 26.65 22.83 -3.82

JPASSOCIAT 55460000 59392000 7.09 0.78 0.37 -0.41 48.82 50.93 2.11

NTPC 13352000 12634000 -5.38 0.43 0.28 -0.15 23.36 22.95 -0.41

ONGC 9912000 9480000 -4.36 0.74 0.78 0.04 28.97 30.68 1.71

RANBAXY 3240500 3318000 2.39 1.64 0.55 -1.09 31.95 40.20 8.25

RCOM 37772000 38188000 1.10 1.26 1.00 -0.26 64.71 71.98 7.27

RELIANCE 12035750 11063750 -8.08 0.58 0.39 -0.19 24.04 25.25 1.21

NIFTY 25643650 24934350 -2.77 1.44 1.16 -0.28 15.52 18.05 2.53

SAIL 16512000 16900000 2.35 0.33 0.31 -0.02 34.85 43.72 8.87

SBIN 4806375 5029875 4.65 0.83 0.58 -0.25 31.96 35.30 3.34

TATASTEEL 17999000 20156000 11.98 0.55 0.45 -0.10 32.20 42.57 10.37

UNITECH 64380000 55910000 -13.16 0.38 0.29 -0.09 63.36 74.50 11.14

IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS

OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY

SCRIPTS PREV. CURRENT % PREV. CURRENT PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE

DERIVATIVES

Put Call Ratio Analysis :The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has decreased

to 1.16 from1.44. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a negative of

change in put call open interest ratio.

Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week

has increased to 18.05% from 15.52%.The IV of the stock futures has changed this

week ranging from -3.82% to 17.62%.

Open Interest Analysis :The open interest for the index at the end of this week

has decreased by 2.77% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw

changes in their open interest ranging from -13.16% to 11.98%. TATASTEEL has the

maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.

Statistical Analysis·

Open 6185.10 High 6239.00

Low 5952.60 Close 5970.00

NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS

®

14

15

16

17

18

19

5800

5900

6000

6100

6200

6300

17-May 20-May 21-May 22-May 23-May

Nifty Close IV

10®

Jeera futures (June) is expected to consolidate in the range of 12900-13500 levels. The factors such lower supply in the domestic market and the international market with tensions in major producing countries, are expected to lend support to the counter in order to maintain its upside bias. Moreover, the demand for cumin is at its peak during the festive month of Ramadan, due to which the export orders may get strong. Turmeric futures (June) will possibly trade in the range of 5800-6300 levels, with the downside being limited. The sentiments prevailing at the spot market depict that stockists are waiting for the upcountry export orders. Meanwhile, the traders are getting limited orders from the local masala firms. As regards supply, the yellow spice is arriving to Erode from Nizamabad, as the price of turmeric is Rs 1,000 a quintal lower than the Erode market price. Cardamom futures (June) is likely to remain in the bearish zone as good weather condition is prevailing in the growing regions, which is beneficial for plantations. Adding to it, higher stocks position and expectations of new crop arrivals from July first week may further bring down the counter, breaching 720 levels. Chilli futures (June) is expected to hover in the range of 5400-5800 levels. The counter is lacking fresh cues of demand from the spot markets. Meanwhile, in Warangal region, there are about 7 – 8 lakh bags of stocks & around 2 lakh bags of stocks are being reported in the Delhi market.

SPICES

Soybean futures (June) might continue with its consolidation in the range of 3700-3970 levels. In the current scenario, the counter in the spot market is mostly trading sideways in the absence of any trigger. The soy meal prices are range-bound in view of lower overseas and domestic demand. India's soy meal prices will continue to face stiff price competition from the South American meal as the harvesting in the region is underway. On the contrary, the factor capping the downside will possibly be that, India is on a course to resume oilmeal exports to China, after Beijing agreed in principle to lift a ban that it imposed last year citing traces of a hazardous chemical. The bullish trend may prevail in the U.S soybean futures on signs that demand will increase in China even as the U.S. supplies shrink. Market participants would be taking cues from various data scheduled next week from the USDA such as crop progress report, weekly weather and crop bulletin & outlook for the U.S. Agricultural trade. Mustard futures (June) is expected to hover within the range of 3440-3560 levels. The supply scenario is restricted as the harvesting in Sri Ganganagar is complete and there is reserved farmer's selling at the current price. Moreover, there is good demand from crushers in Rajasthan. The buyers are mostly local millers and the processors of Alwar, Kota and Morena. CPO futures (June) will probably test the resistance at 480 levels. Malaysian palm oil futures are near to their highest in more than a month as buyers restock ahead of the festival in July.

OIL AND OILSEEDS

OTHER COMMODITIES

Sugar futures (June) is expected to remain below its previous week's high of 3104 levels. The supplies at the spot market are likely to get smoother as the agitation against the Local Body Tax in the Vashi wholesale sugar market has come to an end. Now, the inventories will be disposed off by stockists to local retailers along with the arrivals of new stocks from the mills. Wheat futures (June) is likely to face some resistance near 1640 levels. The counter has witnessed a multi-week rally supported by sustained prospects of higher exports, demand from flour millers & falling arrivals. On the spot market, farmers are showing an intention to store their produce on apprehension of a better price in the days to come. In Rajasthan, M.P and Gujarat the farmer's wheat sale to government is almost over as traders are buying wheat at Rs 1500-1600/qtl, while the supply is almost dry in Gujarat due to lower production this year and Tukri wheat is reaching Gujarat at Rs 1600-1800/qtl from Rajasthan and Lok-1 is reaching Gujarat from M.P at Rs 1750-1850/qtl. Cotton futures (June) on MCX is likely to witness a turnaround upside taking support above 18000 levels. The reports of farmers shifting to other high realization crops may lead to a 10-15% drop in the acreage. Furthermore, the selling pressure from ginner is restricted as the cotton loses weight in summer due to high temperature. Also, the demand for yarn may pick up in the coming days as the strike has ended in Maharashtra.

Base metals complex may trade in range on mixed fundamentals. China's plan to spend $6.5 trillion on urbanization to bolster the economy is running into snags. State owned China Development Bank recently pledged to lend 150 billion yuan ($24.47 billion) to southeastern Fujian province to support its urbanization and channel 30 billion yuan into urban projects in central Anhui province. Red metal copper can trade in range of 390-425. Global spot copper ore treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) are rising because of a production stop at India's largest copper smelter. TC/RCs are fees paid by miners to smelters to refine concentrate into metal and are a key part of the global copper industry's earnings. Spot fees had been around $80 a tonne and 8 cents a pound in March and April. The spot market for copper concentrates continues to benefit from the production stop at the Indian Sterlite smelter, which frees up 3,000 tonnes of concentrates on the market each day. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 800-860 in MCX. Aluminum prices may move in range of 100-105 levels while Zinc prices can hover in range of 100-105 in MCX. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), Global demand for lead is expected to rise 4.8 per cent this year to 11.09 million tonnes, while zinc demand is set to increase by 5.2 per cent to 12.98 million tonnes. While battery metal Lead can move in the range of 110-115 in MCX. Lead production is seen up 4.8 per cent to 11.13 million tonnes in 2013.

BASE METALS

Bullion counter may try to find support at current levels and may head further higher as renewed demand at lower levels may push the prices upside. Gold may trade in the range of $1380-1450 in COMEX and 25800-26800 in MCX. White metal, silver can also trade in the wide range of 42000-45000 in near term. On the domestic bourses, weak local currency has capped the downside to larger extent, which tested 56 levels. Bernanke reiterated that the Fed was prepared to either increase or reduce the pace of its bond buys depending on economic conditions, as the central bank stated on May 1 after its last policy meeting. The central bank is currently buying $85 billion in Treasury and mortgage bonds each month in an effort to keep borrowing costs low and encourage investment, hiring and economic growth. It is the third round of asset purchase, or quantitative easing, since the Fed drove interest rates to near zero in late 2008. Bernanke noted that the main inflation gauge the Fed monitors rose just 1 percent in the 12 months through March, just half the central bank's 2 percent target. Bernanke also stated that premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further. Buyers in China had been active earlier recently lured by lower prices, helping to push premiums to record highs in Hong Kong and Singapore. This week US GDP data will be closely watched for further direction in bullion counter.

BULLIONS

Crude oil prices may remain in range as global demand scenario, middle tension in Syria and inventory position will give further direction to the prices. The oil market is now eyeing the U.S. driving season, which starts this weekend for indications on demand. Meanwhile there is more than enough gasoline to meet seasonal demand. U.S. gasoline stockpiles last week were close to the highest level for this time of the year since 1999.Crude oil may trade in range of 5150-5400 in MCX and $90-97 in NYMEX. U.S. oil demand rose slightly in April, with consumption still at its second lowest level for the month in 17 years. Petroleum demand climbed 0.3 percent from a year earlier to 18.393 million barrels per day. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, and crude storage hub rose 449,000 barrels to 50.172 million barrels. U.S. daily gasoline production climbed by 285,000 barrels to 9.21 million last week, the most this year. According to data from the Energy Information Administration” Crude imports rose 506,000 barrels per day to 8.08 million bpd”. Natural gas may head further higher and its prices can test 250 in MCX. Recently inventory build in natural gas fell short of market expectations. It is expected injections to continue to slow in coming weeks as temperatures heat up and force more homeowners and businesses to turn on their air conditioners. Mostly below seasonal temperatures are expected for the eastern half of the country for the next five days, but private forecaster Commodity Weather Group said the six- to 10-day outlook had turned hotter again for the central and eastern United States.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Closing as on 23.05.13

11

NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly

basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND

PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS

SOYABEAN (JUNE) 3876.00 07.03.13 UP 3421.50 3700.00 - 3600.00 - 3500.00

JEERA (JUNE) 13302.00 11.04.13 UP 13795.00 12000.00 - 11500.00 - 11000.00

RED CHILLI (JUNE) 5658.00 17.04.13 DOWN 6362.00 - 6500.00 - 7000.00 7500.00

RM SEEDS (JUNE) 3515.00 11.04.13 UP 3586.00 3200.00 - 3100.00 - 3000.00

MENTHA OIL (JUNE) 956.70 21.03.13 DOWN 1141.30 - 1000.00 - 1050.00 1100.00

CARDAMOM (JUNE) 731.90 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 850.00 - 890.00 930.00

SILVER (JULY) 43571.00 20.12.12 DOWN 57351.00 - 46000.00 - 49000.00 49500.00

GOLD (AUGUST ) 26644.00 14.02.13 DOWN 30463.00 - 27200.00 - 28000.00 28300.00

COPPER (JUNE) 408.45 09.05.13 SIDEWAYS - - - - - -

LEAD (JUNE) 114.10 21.03.13 DOWN 118.45 - 110.00 - 112.00 115.00

ZINC (JUNE) 103.10 21.03.13 DOWN 105.65 - 104.00 - 106.00 108.00

NICKEL(JUNE) 837.60 21.02.13 DOWN 920.30 - 870.00 - 900.00 920.00

ALUMINUM(JUNE) 101.80 21.02.13 DOWN 112.95 - 104.00 - 106.00 108.00

CRUDE OIL (JUNE) 5215.00 25.04.13 SIDEWAYS - - - - - -

NATURAL GAS (JUNE) 236.80 23.05.13 SIDEWAYS - - - - - -

TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING

*

TREND SHEET

COMMODITY

NICKEL MCX (JUNE) contract closed at ̀ 837.60 on 23rd May '13. The contract made its high of ̀ 906.30

on 8th April '13 and a low of `795.00 on 2nd May '13. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the

commodity is currently at ̀ 835. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45. One can Buy in the

range 820-810 with the stop loss of ̀ 785 for a target of ̀ 875.

CORIANDER NCDEX (JUNE) contract closed at ̀ 6873.00 on 23rd May '13. The contract made its high of

`7895.00 on 9th April '13 and a low of ̀ 6325.00 on 10th May '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving Average

of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 6789.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50. One can Buy in the

range 6800-6700 with the stop loss of ̀ 6535 for target of ̀ 7200.

COTTON SEED OIL NCDEX (JULY) contract closed at `1541.00 on 23rd May '13.The contract made its

high of ̀ 1585.00 on 20th April '13 and a low of ̀ 1475.00 on 9th May '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving

Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 1530.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52. One can Buy in the

range 1530-1520 with the stop loss of ̀ 1500 for a target of ̀ 1585.

®

NICKEL MCX (JUNE)

CORIANDER NCDEX (JUNE)

COTTON SEED OIL NCDEX (JULY)

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

Bullion counter continue to witness some stability as the prices had taken support near $1340 in COMEX and Rs 25500 in MCX. Gold prices got support on the back of a confused statement given by the U.S. Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke that there was no rush to end the monetary easing programme, which increased the metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation. Gold has been hammered this year, losing nearly a fifth of its value, as investors favored stocks and other risk assets on the back of strong economic data. Crude oil remained on an extremely volatile note on mixed fundamentals. Recently ample supply and a slow global economic recovery fuelled worries that the demand for the oil would be hit. Crude inventories in the United States are near record levels as the world's top oil consumer produced more from shale, while shrinking factory activity in China capped fuel demand growth at the world's No.2 user. Natural gas prices continued their bullish momentum as the commodity breached the key level of 238 in MCX. Base metals also traded on an uneven note as on the one hand slow manufacturing data from China pressurized the prices lower while on the other hand good economic numbers from the US supported the prices higher. Chinese factory activity declined in May for the first time in seven months and the U.S. manufacturing grew at its slowest clip since October, suggesting that it may take a while before the global economy starts to pick up . China's factory data could also sharpened a dilemma for policymakers in Beijing, who must decide whether to provide some stimulus of their own to stabilize the activity or tolerate an orderly slowdown while focusing on reducing the country's dependence on exports and investment, changes economists say would bring long-term benefits.

In agro-commodities, maize futures continued its bull run supported by demand from local poultry feed makers and starch feed makers. Moreover, the apprehensions of lesser production this year because of yield loss due to unfavorable weather conditions pushed up the counter. Wheat prices on the domestic & futures market posted the second best gain backed by lower arrivals due to holding of crop by farmers as they anticipated rise in price and active buying from traders and millers. Mustard futures remained stable on lower inflow of arrivals & buying support from stockiest due to the ongoing marriage season. However, the upside was seen capped on slack buying support from the crushers due to prevailing negative crush margin. Soybean futures consolidated in a narrow range on poor domestic demand for beans & weak domestic off-take in meal from poultry feed industry. On the contrary, U.S soybeans headed for fourth weekly advance, the best rally since March 2012 on signs of rising demand. The downside in jeera futures remained capped due to supply crunch in the domestic market. Market participants are also in expectation that export orders could get diverted to India due to supply disruption in Syria. The yellow spice remain trapped in a narrow range due to lack of fresh cues of upcountry demand from exporters due to ongoing summer season.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

COMMODITY UNIT 15.05.13 22.05.13 DIFFERENCE

QTY.

BARLEY MT 21392 24541 3149

CASTOR SEED MT 126423 132513 6090

CHANA MT 89490 108811 19321

CHILLI MT 15443 15698 255

COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 133117 124455 -8662

MAIZE MT 686 1341 655

RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 65330 72064 6734

SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 13075 23453 10378

SUGAR M MT 6225 6833 608

WHEAT MT 3603 5859 2256

COMMODITY UNIT 16.05.13 23.05.13 DIFFERENCE

QTY. QTY.

CARDAMOM MT 60.90 61.90 1.00

COTTON BALES 161400.00 161400.00 0.00

GOLD KGS 324.00 319.00 -5.00

GOLD MINI KGS 39.90 37.30 -2.60

GOLD GUINEA KGS 271.99 271.89 -0.10

MENTHA OIL KGS 576617.85 482330.50 -94287.35

MILD STEEL MT 2343.86 2191.52 -152.34

SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 18420.15 18027.23 -392.93

•SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed

exchange-traded fund holdings fell to four year lows of

1018.57 tonnes last week.

•US initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped

23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000 last week.

•China's net draw on refined copper from the

international market has slumped by 570,000 tonnes

this year relative to the same four months of 2012.

•Iran's government is negotiating a tax of up to 40

percent on iron ore exports to take advantage of a surge

in sales to China.

•Global crude steel production rose 1.2 percent to 132

million tonnes in April, compared with the same month

a year earlier.

•Yunnan Copper Industry Company has shut a 100,000-

tonne-a-year unit due to supply shortage of raw

material scrap.

•US Home resale's rose in April to the highest level in

nearly 3-1/2 years.

•Ace Derivatives and Commodity Exchange Ltd (ACE),

announced commencement of futures trading in guar

seed and guar gum.

•According to National Federation of Cooperative Sugar

Factories, sugar production will be 25 million tonnes

(MT). Taking into account imports, an opening stock in

the next year would be around 9.66 MT.

•Indonesia has set its export tax for crude palm oil at 9%

for June and unchanged from May.

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

12

®

5.87

2.55 2.472.17

1.77

-3.19

-2.10 -1.99 -1.88

-1.32

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

GASMENTHA OIL LEAD

(DEL)SILVER POTATO CRUDE OIL STEEL RPR GUAR SEED

OIL

4.13

2.42

2.04

1.651.44

-2.99-2.74 -2.62

-2.45

-2.05

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

RABI DELHIGOLD NEW SILVER NEW COTTON SD

O.C (AKL)TURMERIC CASTOR SEED

NEWCRUDE OIL POTATO CHANA

Rapemustard Seed

13

SPOT PRICES (% change)

COMMODITY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE

16.05.13 23.05.13

ALUMINIUM 5225975 5218175 -7800

COPPER 627525 627275 -250

NICKEL 179556 179598 42

LEAD 244525 236275 -8250

ZINC 1120900 1107200 -13700

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 17.05.13 23.05.13 CHANGE(%)

Soya CBOT JULY Cent per Bushel 1448.50 1499.50 3.52

Maize CBOT JULY Cent per Bushel 652.75 662.00 1.42

CPO BMD JUNE MYR per MT 2334.00 2340.00 0.26

Sugar LIFFE AUG 10 cents per MT 477.50 474.90 -0.54

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 17.05.13 23.05.13 CHANGE%

ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1849.00 1850.00 0.05

COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 7305.00 7300.00 -0.07

LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2014.00 2044.00 1.49

NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 14825.00 14940.00 0.78

ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 1840.00 1856.00 0.87

GOLD COMEX JUNE 1364.70 1391.80 1.99

SILVER COMEX JULY 2235.20 2250.80 0.70

LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX JULY 96.29 94.25 -2.12

NATURAL GAS NYMEX JUNE 4.06 4.26 5.08

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Mustard/Rapeseed oil is the third largest edible oil produced in the world after Soy oil and Palm oil with accounts of about 12% of the total World's edible oil production. The average oil recovery from the seed is about 33%. The remaining is obtained as cake, which is rich in proteins and is used as an animal feed ingredient. Being an important source of edible oil and feed meal to the country, mustard is undoubtedly the focus of Indian edible oil industry. In EU, rapeseed oil is mainly used for biofuel production.

Global scenario

According to USDA, Global production of rapeseed in 2013/14 is projected to increase 4 percent to 63.4 million tonnes due to improved crops for the EU-27, Canada, Ukraine, Russia, and India. However, low global stocks of rapeseed are likely to persist as consumption may outpace the increase in total supplies. According to Oil World global rapeseed production in 2013/14 is forecast 64.0 mt which is down from the previous forecast of 64.1 mt but up from the 62.6 mt produced in the previous year.

According to USDA, EU-27 rapeseed production is projected rising to 20 million tons from 19.1 million last year. Ukraine rapeseed crop is expected to swell 43 percent in 2013/14 to 2 million tons from 1.3 million tons of last year. Almost all of Ukraine's additional rapeseed production would be used to expand exports to 1.9 million tons. The 2013/14 canola crop in Canada is expected to recover despite a lower sown area. Improved yields could boost canola production to 14.5 million tons from 13.3 million in 2012/13. China rapeseed production is projected at 13.5 million tonnes, up 0.9 million based on in-creased area and yield. While USDA projects a 9-percent decline in 2013/14 canola production for Australia to 2.8 million tons.

Global stockpiles of rapeseed and canola, a low-acid variety of the crop, may drop to 4.95 million tonnes by the end of the marketing year, the smallest in at least four seasons. Crushing from July to December rose to a record 30.8 million tonnes. World exports may tumble 21 percent from a year earlier to 5.3 million tonnes.

Indian scenario

•According to the SEA, India's rapeseed output for 2012-13 is expected to jump by 12.32 lakh tonnes to 71.12 lakh tonnes.

•In Rajasthan seed production may rise to almost 34.0 lakh tonnes, forecasts SEA.

•No rapeseed is exported from India, so all of the additional output is expected to be crushed domestically. Mustard oil is consumed wholly in the domestic market

•India has exported 786690 tonnes rapeseed oil meal in FY 2012-13 while exported 1248681 tonnes in FY 2011-12 .

• According to Dorab Mistry mustard oil production in India is likely to rise 27 per cent to 2.25 million tonnes this season as against 1.77 mt the previous year this year due to record high seed output in the current rabi season.

•However, higher mustard oil output is unlikely to reduce India's dependence on oil import. Of around 16.5 mt of India consumption of edible oil, imports are 57 per cent.

Outlook

The mustard seed futures are likely to trade in range due to higher production estimates, lower buying interest and import of edible oil. Strength in soya market may support the prices. Export Demand of oilcake may also support the prices.

®

-3.58

-2.08

-1.93

-1.75

-1.49

-1.22

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.15

0.29

0.30

0.40

0.43

0.50

0.76

1.98

2.52

3.02

5.11

6.91

-6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00

CARDAMOM (VANDANMEDU)

RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)

CHANA (DELHI)

SOYABEAN (INDORE)

PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)

CORIANDER (KOTA)

CHILLI (GUNTUR)

MASOOR (INDORE)

MILD STEEL INGOTS (GHAZIABAD)

REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)

JEERA (UNJHA)

BARLEY (JAIPUR)

RUBBER (KOCHI)

MUSTARD (JAIPUR)

CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)

GOLD KG (MUMBAI)

GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)

TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)

SILVER (DELHI)

WHEAT (DELHI)

MENTHA OIL (CHANDAUSI)

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USD/INR 54.92 56.32 55.24 55.90

EUR/INR 70.66 72.38 70.95 71.98

GBP/INR 83.54 84.63 83.98 84.23

JPY/INR 53.56 55.65 53.90 53.45

(Source: Thomson Reuters, Open: Friday (Prior) 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday 5.00 PM IST)

News Flows of last week

22nd May: U.S Home resales rose in April to the highest level in nearly 3-1/2 years

22nd May: Bernanke said more progress needed before stimulus pullback

23rd May: U.S New home sales rose, prices surged to record highs

23rd May: Fed balance sheet expanded in latest week

23rd May: U.S Manufacturing slowed for a second straight month in May

23rd May: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment

benefits fell last week

23rd May: Britons expects inflation of 2.5 percent over the coming year.

EUR/INR (JUNE) contract closed at ̀ 71.98 on 23rd May. The contract made its high of `72.38 on 22nd May'13 and a low of `70.95 on 20th May'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 71.56.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.87. One can buy around 71.90 for a target of 73.20 with the stop loss of 71.40.

JPY/INR (JUNE) contract closed at `55.04 on 23rd May'13. The contract made its

high of `55.65 on 23rdMay'13 and a low of `53.90 on 20th May'13 (Weekly Basis).

The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 54.61.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.20.

One can Buy around 54.95 for a target of 55.95 with the stop loss of ̀ 53.45.

Market Stance

The rupee recovered from a more than 8-1/2 month low hit earlier on Thursday,

as exporters took advantage of a spike in the dollar to sell the greenback and on

fears the central bank would intervene to stabilize the local currency. The rupee

still posted a fifth day of falls to mark its longest losing streak in over three

months as worries about a potential pullback in the U.S. monetary stimulus

programme and a weak manufacturing survey in China sparked a shift sway from

riskier currencies. Any pullback on U.S. quantitative easing has the potential to

hit Indian markets hard. Foreign investors have bought more than $5 billion of

debt and stocks this month, marking a surge in inflows from previous months.

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram tried to assuage investor sentiment, stating

that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's statements have been

'misunderstood or misinterpreted." The rupee was caught in the eye of the storm

between Bernanke and Chinese PMI. However, the market recovered realising

the fears were overdone. Expectation of large flows starting next week and

exporter selling around 56 levels capped the losses.

Economic gauge for the next week

Date Currency Event PREVIOUS

26th May JPY JPY Bank of Japan April 26 meeting minutes

28th May USD USD Consumer Confidence 68.1

29th May EUR EUR German Unemployment Change 4K

29th May EUR EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 6.90%

29th May EUR EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.20%

29th May EUR EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) 1.10%

30th May USD USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) 2.50%

30th May USD USD Personal Consumption 3.20%

30th May USD USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 1.20%

30th May JPY JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) -0.90%

31st May EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 1.00%

31st May EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) 1.20%

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EUR/INR

USD/INR (JUNE) contract closed at ̀ 55.90 on 23rd May'13. The contract made its high of ̀ 56.32 on 23rd May'13 and a low of ̀ 55.24 on 21st May'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 55.32.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 71.66. One can Buy around 55.25 for a target of 56.25 with the stop loss of 54.75.

GBP/INR (JUNE) contract closed at ̀ 84.23 on 23rd May'13. The contract made its

high of ̀ 84.63 on 23rd May'13 and a low of ̀ 83.98 on 20th May'13 (Weekly Basis).

The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at ̀ 84.21.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.12.

One can Buy above 84.65 for a target of ̀ 85.70 with the stop loss of ̀ 84.10.

USD/INRTechnical Recommendation

GBP/INR JPY/INR

IPOIPO

INDIAN IPO NEWS

Investors lap up Just Dial, IPO subscribed nearly 12 times

Just Dial successfully completed its IPO on Wednesday with its ̀ 950-crore issue got subscribed nearly 12 times. VVS Mani, the promoter, who started the

company with `50,000 in 300 sq ft of space, and who owns 33% stake in the company is now worth `1,253 crore. The issue provided exit for private

equity (PE) funds such as Sequoia Capital and SAIF whose returns jumped 820%, in four years, a fact that could push other investors to consider similar

offers. Anchor investors such as Goldman Sachs India Fund, HSBC Bank (Mauritius), Birla Sunlife Trustee Company, DSP Blackrock Opportunities Fund

and Deutsche Securities Mauritius purchased shares at ̀ 540 a piece in a pre-IPO offer.

Vodafone reports flat sales growth in FY13; no IPO in 2013

Vodafone India, the country's second largest mobile operator adjusted operating profits rose by more than three-fold to GBP 221 million (about ̀ 1,853

crore) for the year ended March 31, 2013. The company, part of the UK-based Vodafone Group, had posted an adjusted operating profit of GBP 60

million (about `503 crore) in the year-ago period, it said in a release. Vodafone India revenues also rose by 1.17 percent to GBP 4.32 billion (about

`361.9 billion) from GBP 4.27 billion (about `357.7 billion) during the same period. Its free cash flow for year ended March 31, 2013 rose to GBP 729

million from GBP 531 million in the year-ago period.

Intas Pharma IPO plans to raise ̀ 1000-1200 Cr.

Intas Pharma has decided to revive its Initial Public Offer (IPO) plan. The company had earlier planned to go public in 2012 but poor market conditions

had forced it to shelve its plans. It is likely that Intas will file its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi)

in the next two weeks. It seeks to raise around `1000-1200 crore through this IPO and plans to utilise proceeds from this IPO for capex and debt

reduction, reports CNBC-TV18's Aastha Maheshwari. Intas Pharma is an Ahmedabad based drug manufacturing company. The company is also into

formulation, development and marketing. It gets around 40 percent of its sales from overseas and its gross revenues cross around `3000 crore.

Meanwhile bankers value this company to be more than ̀ 5000 crore.

Puravankara's IPP oversubscribed 1.5 times

Realty firm Puravankara Projects' offer to sell 2.37 crore shares to institutional investors was oversubscribed by 1.5 times, helping the company raise

around ̀ 201 crore. The Bangalore-based firm launched Institutional Placement Programme (IPP) to meet the SEBI's norm of minimum 25 per cent public

shareholding in the private sector listed companies by June. Promoters have 89.96 per cent stake in the company as on March 31. Through IPP, the

company offered 2,15,68,501 shares of face value of ̀ 5 each at a price band of ̀ 80-85 per share. It has an option to allot an additional up to 21,56,850

equity shares in case of over-subscription, taking the total offer size to 2,37,25,351 shares.

V-Mart Retail Trading 255.75 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 142.40 -32.19

Bharti Infra. Telecom 31995.93 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 169.40 -23.00

PC Jeweller Jewellary 2053.38 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 114.65 -15.07

CARE Rating Agency 2009.35 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 703.80 -6.16

Tara Jewels Jewellary 373.62 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 152.00 -33.91

VKS Projects Engineering 161.91 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 2.57 -95.33

Speciality Restaruants Restaurants 821.80 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 175.00 16.67

T B Z Jewellary 1573.75 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 236.05 96.71

MT Educare Miscellaneous 387.46 99.00 12-Apr-12 80.00 86.05 97.40 21.75

NBCC Construction 1576.80 124.97 12-Apr-12 106.00 100.00 131.40 23.96

Olympic card. Media 93.05 24.75 28-Mar-12 30.00 29.95 57.05 90.17

Multi Comm. Exc. Exchange 4644.06 663.31 9-Mar-12 1032.00 1387.00 910.60 -11.76

Indo Thai Sec. Finance 13.95 29.60 2-Nov-11 74.00 75.00 13.95 -81.15

Vaswani Inds. Steel 9.01 49.00 24-Oct-11 49.00 33.45 3.30 -93.27

M and B Switch. Capital Goods 449.00 93.00 20-Oct-11 186.00 180.00 22.45 -87.93

Flexituff Intl. Packaging 515.90 104.63 19-Oct-11 155.00 155.00 224.5 44.84

Prakash Constro. Construction 21.62 60.00 4-Oct-11 138.00 145.00 1.72 -98.75

PG Electro. Cons. Durables 106.91 120.65 26-Sep-11 210.00 200.00 65.15 -68.98

IPO TRACKER

Company Sector M.Cap(In Cr.) Issue Size(in Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)

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MUTUAL FUND

NEWS

HSBC MF introduces Fixed Term Series 93

HSBC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of HSBC Fixed Term Series 93, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on May 20,

2013 and closes on May 27, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to seek generation of returns by investing in a portfolio of fixed income instruments

which mature on or before the maturity date of the Plan.

Reliance MF introduces Dual Advantage Fixed Tenure Fund III - Plan C

Reliance Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Reliance Dual Advantage Fixed Tenure Fund III - Plan C, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens

for subscription on May 17, 2013 and closes on May 31, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns and reduce interest rate volatility, through

a portfolio of fixed income securities that are maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme along with capital appreciation through equity exposure.

IDBI MF introduces FMP - Series III - 370 Days (May 2013)

IDBI Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of IDBI fmp - Series III - 370 Days (May 2013) - E, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on May 22, 2013 and closes on May 28, 2013. The investment objective for each Plan(s) under the Scheme will be to generate income through

investments in Debt and Money Market Instruments. In accordance with SEBI Circular No SEBI/IMD/ CIR No. 12/147132/08dated December 11, 2008 each Plan

shall invest only in such Rs. 5000securities which mature on or before the maturity date of the respective plan.

Harshal Joshi appointed as the key personnel for IDFC MF

IDFC Mutual Fund has appointed Mr. Harshal Joshi to be a key personnel of AMC and hence shall be the fund manager for FMPs having tenure of one year or below

which will be launched hereafter. The change is w.e.f. May 20, 2013. Harshal Joshi aged 28 years holds PGDBM from N.L.Dalmia Institute of Management Studies

and Research, Mumbai. He has been working in IDFC Mutual Fund since December 2008 with fixed income investment team. Prior to joining IDFC Mutual Fund

have worked in ICAP India Pvt Ltd from 2006 to 2007. He has an overall experience of 5.5 years.

Axis Mutual Fund declares dividend under Income Scheme.

Axis Mutual Fund has declared dividend under Axis Income Saver- Quarterly Dividend and Axis Income Saver- Direct Plan - Quarterly Dividend. The record date for

dividend is May 27, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate regular income through investments in debt & money market instruments, along

with capital appreciation through limited exposure to equity and equity related instruments. It also aims to manage risk through active asset allocation.

UTI Fixed Income Interval Fund Half Yearly Interval Plan

UTI Mutual Fund has declared dividend under dividend sub option of UTI Fixed Income Interval Fund Half Yearly Interval Plan - I-Retail. The record date for

dividend is May 27, 2013. The rate of dividend will be 100% of distributable surplus as on the record date on the face value of ̀ 10 per unit.

Tata Fixed Maturity Plan Series 40 Scheme C declared dividend

Tata Mutual Fund has declared dividend under the periodic dividend option of Tata Fixed Maturity Plan Series 40 Scheme C. The record date for dividend is May 27,

2013. The rate of dividend (per unit) will be entire distributable surplus on the face value of ̀ 10 per unit.

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NFOs WATCH

Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount

13-May-2013 27-May-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-DSP BlackRock Dual Advantage Fund - Series 15

Dhawal Dalal / Vinit Sambre

To generate returns and seek capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market securities. The scheme also seeks to invest a portion of the portfolio in equity & equity related securities to achieve capital appreciation. As far as investments in debt and money market securities are concerned, the Schemes will invest only in securities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the Schemes.

23-May-2013 27-May-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-HDFC Fixed Maturity Plan - 366D - May 2013 Series 26 (2) Direct Plan (G)

Anil BamboliTo generate income through investments in Debt / Money Market Instruments and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan.

17-May-2013 31-May-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-Reliance Dual Advantage Fixed Tenure Fund III - Plan C (G)

Samir Rachh / Anju Chajjer

To generate returns and reduce interest rate volatility, through a portfolio of fixed income securities that are maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme along with capital appreciation through equity exposure.

17-May-2013 31-May-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-ICICI Prudential Multiple Yield Fund - Series 4 - Plan A - Direct Plan (G)

Rajat Chandak / Rahul Goswami

To seek to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities/ debt instruments. The secondary objective of the Scheme is to generate long term capital appreciation by investing a portion of the Scheme\'s assets in equity and equity related instruments.

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MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

Birla Sun Life India GenNext F-Growth 32.21 05-Aug-2005 128.25 5.00 8.85 32.66 16.25 16.17 1.70 0.75 0.21 49.65 39.19 4.21 6.95

Canara Robeco FORCE Fund-Reg-Growth 16.12 14-Sep-2009 114.24 4.09 6.61 32.13 11.75 13.81 2.06 0.94 0.13 57.18 26.53 3.52 12.78

Axis Equity Fund-Growth 12.76 05-Jan-2010 531.80 4.96 11.44 31.95 8.21 7.48 1.70 0.84 0.15 76.33 6.08 3.79 13.80

Morgan Stanley Growth Fund-Growth 67.34 18-Feb-1994 1331.44 2.94 9.03 30.35 6.11 12.13 1.72 0.82 0.11 74.46 20.24 0.84 4.45

SBI Magnum Bluechip Fund - Growth 16.79 14-Feb-2006 856.35 1.71 7.12 29.82 7.96 7.38 1.63 0.80 0.15 71.34 13.44 N.A 15.21

Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity F-Plan A-G 99.31 30-Aug-2002 3043.64 1.60 6.58 29.41 8.78 23.84 1.83 0.91 0.11 79.09 12.13 N.A 8.78

Franklin India Smaller Companies F-G 16.52 13-Jan-2006 322.84 -0.54 4.25 28.71 9.11 7.06 1.82 0.66 0.14 23.83 57.00 10.13 9.04

EQUITY (Diversified)

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 23/05/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

ULTRA SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 57.42 09-Oct-1995 374.07 1.65 5.77 25.76 6.98 15.74 1.18 0.14 30.29 26.93 14.05 28.73

Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 346.24 10-Feb-1995 575.99 0.87 5.02 20.80 7.93 21.38 1.39 0.03 53.22 12.65 0.37 33.75

ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 55.94 03-Nov-1999 447.50 0.87 5.11 20.59 11.68 13.54 1.22 0.04 47.14 16.11 2.28 34.48

FT India Balanced Fund - Growth 55.53 10-Dec-1999 212.45 1.96 6.80 20.31 7.90 13.58 1.27 0.03 53.75 15.97 1.35 28.93

Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 98.62 08-Oct-1995 508.47 2.40 4.06 20.17 9.80 15.87 1.40 0.04 49.59 21.28 3.40 25.74

Kotak Balance 18.89 25-Nov-1999 114.23 1.23 5.92 18.57 8.13 15.45 1.24 0.03 53.98 8.29 0.53 37.20

Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 24.73 08-Jun-2005 547.51 -0.72 0.61 17.76 7.02 12.04 1.50 0.01 51.46 11.69 5.14 31.71

Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

SBI Magnum Income Fund - Growth 30.61 25-Nov-1998 3018.90 11.20 48.37 42.27 21.29 16.94 10.59 7.98 19.76 0.44 3727.00 8.93

ICICI Prudential Income Opp. F-Growth 17.03 18-Aug-2008 2345.64 -0.73 46.24 42.00 18.58 16.44 9.62 11.82 19.01 0.43 3008.00 8.65

Birla Sun Life Income Plus - DAP 14.24 06-Mar-2009 2901.32 6.64 50.02 44.94 23.26 16.24 9.67 8.75 20.00 0.39 N.A 8.24

Morgan Stanley Active Bond F-Reg-G 12.91 03-Jun-2009 203.36 -0.65 51.02 45.93 22.27 16.21 8.62 6.64 22.07 0.35 4063.00 7.95

Birla Sun Life Income Plus - Growth 56.45 21-Oct-1995 2901.32 6.67 50.01 44.93 23.19 16.20 9.66 10.33 19.99 0.39 N.A 8.24

ICICI Prudential Income Fund -Growth 39.35 09-Jul-1998 2927.53 13.96 47.04 42.66 20.86 16.06 9.07 9.64 18.46 0.41 3734.00 8.29

Reliance Dynamic Bond Fund - Growth 16.57 16-Nov-2004 4182.45 13.38 46.34 39.21 20.14 16.03 10.91 6.07 19.51 0.37 4216.00 8.86

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond F- Reg-G 13.62 12-Jun-2009 428.03 8.24 25.03 28.23 18.50 13.44 9.68 8.14 13.57 0.40 2555.00 8.31

ICICI Prudential Blended-Plan B-Option I-G 18.13 31-May-2005 948.67 7.92 18.29 23.53 14.13 11.65 9.29 7.74 8.12 0.49 1011.00 8.54

UTI Short Term Income F-Ret-Growth 20.94 23-Jun-2003 2280.04 2.87 15.71 18.45 13.28 12.34 9.68 7.73 6.74 0.66 973.00 N.A

Templeton India STIP-Growth 2419.62 31-Jan-2002 5744.78 1.55 14.71 18.75 12.41 11.78 8.99 8.12 5.63 0.71 982.00 10.09

Kotak Bond Short Term Plan - Growth 22.71 02-May-2002 1413.95 3.06 15.79 17.87 12.31 11.41 8.03 7.69 5.47 0.67 953.00 8.75

ICICI Prudential STP - Growth 24.59 25-Oct-2001 4665.53 5.46 17.04 17.76 12.29 11.48 8.45 8.08 5.78 0.61 1048.00 8.68

Morgan Stanley Short Term Bond F-Reg-G 13.62 26-May-2009 332.49 8.51 17.11 20.32 12.28 11.54 9.06 8.13 6.06 0.62 1143.00 9.21

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

DWS Money Plus Fund - Growth 16.44 14-Mar-2006 433.32 5.78 11.79 13.93 9.81 9.65 7.08 7.15 3.84 0.57 562.00 8.50

Templeton India Low Duration F-G 12.91 26-Jul-2010 2803.69 7.68 8.75 9.50 9.66 9.96 N.A 9.46 1.83 1.34 263.00 9.04

DWS Treasury Fund - Investment-Reg-G 13.21 09-Oct-2009 240.25 6.40 8.02 9.62 9.61 9.87 8.29 7.99 3.03 0.74 314.00 8.42

Indiabulls Ultra Short Term Fund-G 1141.66 06-Jan-2012 615.57 8.92 9.11 9.27 9.58 9.86 N.A 10.09 1.55 1.60 133.00 8.76

Kotak Floater - LT - Growth 18.97 13-Aug-2004 4289.57 7.71 9.38 10.43 9.50 9.67 8.80 7.56 1.99 1.19 193.00 8.80

Reliance Medium Term Fund - Growth 24.76 14-Sep-2000 4350.12 6.37 8.67 10.31 9.39 9.92 8.79 7.40 2.70 0.88 320.00 8.57

Kotak Flexi Debt Fund - Growth 18.26 07-Dec-2004 1520.79 7.46 9.64 10.69 9.35 9.34 8.16 7.37 1.83 1.05 172.00 8.90

Annualised

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Investor Awareness Seminar on Commodities organised by SMC on 18th May at Goregaon Sports Club, Mumbai.