A Waning Warming: Whats Up With That? Alan Journet [email protected] / 541-301-4107...
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Transcript of A Waning Warming: Whats Up With That? Alan Journet [email protected] / 541-301-4107...
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“A Waning Warming: What’s Up With That?”Alan Journet
[email protected] / 541-301-4107
Co-Facilitatorhttp://socan.info
For ppt: http://socan.info Projects Presentation Project Scroll down to ‘SOCAN Presentations Delivered’
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ii) The Rest of the Story
i) What is happening to atmospheric temperature?
Two Parts:
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Global Temperatures 1880 – 2012cf 1951-1980
2011
1998
2010
2008
20092012
Since 1970s - 1.3⁰FSince 1880s - app. 2.0⁰FSince 1750s - >2.0⁰F
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif
0
.36
.36
.72
.72
1.08
1.08
1.44
1.8
⁰F
2013 so far 7th hottest on record –
WMU
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State of the Climate 2009 Highlights (NOAA 2010)
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NASA GISS Data
Is it legitimate, when we have a largedate set, to trawl in sub-sets of thosedata for patterns we want to see?
2000 20101980 1990
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif
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In Regression…the Key Questions
• How close are the data to the line? • If data are close to line we are confident that the line represents
the data accurately, andand• Is the slope of the line (significantly) different from 0 - meaning a
slope (relationship) exists?• Only if the slope is significantly different from 0 (at least 95%
certainty), in science, can we conclude there is a pattern.
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Regression Analysis Reveals TrendNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1880 - 2012
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 202054.5
55
55.5
56
56.5
57
57.5
58
58.5
59
59.5
Year
Tem
pera
tue
Degr
ees F
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Regression Analysis Reveals TrendNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1880 - 2012
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 202054.5
55
55.5
56
56.5
57
57.5
58
58.5
59
59.5
f(x) = 0.0154850389202314 x + 27.0680089980719R² = 0.803528146861227
Year
Tem
pera
tue
Degr
ees F
97% of practicing climate scientistshave independently reviewed datasuch as these and concluded:
- There is a greater than 90% probability that human emissionsof greenhouse gases are contributing
- That the planet is warming is unequivocal
If a coin toss comes up heads500/1000 we’d be happy, but 999 times out of 1000we’d be suspicious
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http://skepticalscience.com//news.php?f=big-picture
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• Phil Brennan, Sept 2009, Newsmax• The planet has been cooling since “around 1998” or “since around
the year 2000.”• http://www.newsmax.com/brennan/obama-global-warming/2009/09/23/id/335170
• Stephen (Lord) Monckton of Benchley • American Physical Society: Forum on Physics and Society; July 2008• Showed following cooling pattern from 2002 – 2008:
http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/monckton.cfm
EXAMPLES
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1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
57.8
58
58.2
58.4
58.6
58.8
59
Year
Tem
pera
ture
Deg
rees
F
The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998 - 2012
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1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
57.8
58
58.2
58.4
58.6
58.8
59
f(x) = 0.0179357142857142 x + 22.5816928571431R² = 0.187384450949428
Year
Tem
pera
ture
Deg
rees
F
1 – Still positive though lower slope and probability
2 – Based on cherry-picked data starting 1998
With a 70% chance of rain, would you take an umbrella?
The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998 - 2012
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The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998
adjusted - 2012
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
57.8
58
58.2
58.4
58.6
58.8
59
Year
Tem
pera
ture
Deg
rees
F
1998 adjusted to mean of two previous and 2 succeeding years
No more legitimate than cherry-picking data-
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1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
57.8
58
58.2
58.4
58.6
58.8
59
f(x) = 0.0308732142857143 x − 3.3924946428572R² = 0.450225879066579
Year
Tem
pera
ture
Deg
rees
F
Now slope is back, and P > 90%
Indicates the impact ofoutliers on data analysisand conclusions.
The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998
adjusted - 2012
With a 90% chance of rain, would you take an umbrella?
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Pattern Adjusted for Natural Factors:ENSO, Solar Cycles, Volcanoes
Absent Cooling Factors - - - Would Have Been A Consistent Rise
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/12/08/1043534/-eSci:-Global-Cooling-Assured-for-the-Next-3-Decades
G. Foster, and S. Rahmsdorf, "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010", Environmental Research Letters, vol. 6, 2011.
However….recently
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http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/background.html
Cowtan and Way Accepted November 2013Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
IPCC 2013: “…the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012) was 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade, which begins with a strong El Niño,
However, the rate 1951 – 2012 was 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade.”
Adjustment Allowing for
Incomplete coverage by weather stationsespecially lacking in Arctic
where greatest recent warming has occurred
Appeared too late for inclusion in IPCC review Corrected value Increases 1998 – 2012
back to 012°C – same as1951 – 2012Combine this with the previous study and maybe
atmospheric influences have actually increased
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Atmospheric Temperature Conclusion
Still warming –
But now – The Rest of the Story….
questionable that it’s a slower rise
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Temperature is only one manifestation ofour use of the atmosphere as a carbon waste dump
Eleven Indicators of a Carbon Polluted Planet
Modified From - http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment
Ocean Acidification
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Heat vs Temperature
Heat is the amount of energy in a system. The SI units for heat are Joules.
Temperature measures AVERAGE molecular motion in a system and is measured in degrees (F, C, or K).
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Incoming Visible light
Transformed toInfra-red = heat.
Then what?
Some infra-red is absorbed byatmospheric
gases
Remainder escapes
into space
The Atmospheric “Greenhouse
Effect"
WARNING:Not drawn to scale
some re-radiated out
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If atmospheric gas density increases,
more heat is retained by this ‘thermal
blanket’
Surface - LowerAtmosphere
War
min
g
Less escapes
into space
What proportion of this trapped heat energy is absorbed by the atmosphere and causes atmospheric warming?
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Components of a Heating Planet
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=12
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Cunning Properties of Water
• High Specific Heat• Water molecules take relatively large amounts of heat to warm.• Imagine saucepan of air vs saucepan of water:• apply heat• which warms fastest?
• High Latent Heat• When water changes state (ice water vapor);• Heat is consumed without a temperature change
• Result is water consumes heat energy without warming very much• Maximum Density
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Land and Sea Surface Temperature
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/
Oceans follow but lag
Warming faster in the last60 years than in 10,000
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Oceans as heat sinks
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/jun/24/global-warming-pause-button?guni=Article:in%20body%20link
Change not in global warming
but in transfer of heat from upper to deep abyssal zones.
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The Rest of the Story
Regardless of the atmospheric temperature trend…..
The planet continues to absorb heat from incoming trapped radiation
It’s GLOBAL Warming – not Atmospheric Warming!
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Finally – Definitive, Irrefutable,
Confirmation of Global Warming…
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$271 b in US
97%
OR
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NY Times