A Voter’s Eye View 2012Election - Florida State … Voter’s Eye View of the 2012Election Charles...

A Voter’s Eye View of the 2012Election

Charles Stewart III

June 11, 2013

Outline

• Introduce the data • How we vote• The voter experience• Waiting to vote• Voter confidence

BUILDING A QUANTITATIVE SCIENCE OF ELECTION ADMINISTRATION

. . . “the most primitive and neglected branch of our public administration” (V.O. Key, 1949)

• State and local election returns and statistics

• U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey

• U.S. EAC, Election Administration and Voting Survey

• Survey research• Cooperative Congressional Election Study

• Survey of the Performance of American Elections

SURVEY OF THE PERFORMANCE OF

AMERICAN ELECTIONS BACKGROUND

SPAE Background

• Funded by Pew Center on the States• Developed and administered by Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project

• 200 respondents x 51 states• Previous efforts• All Internet (YouGov/Polimetrix)

Core Questions

• Non‐voting– Reasons for not voting

• In‐person voting– Difficulty finding polling place– How well polling places were run– Voter registration problems– Time waiting to vote– Voting equipment problems

Core Questions

• Mail/absentee voting– Problems getting mail ballot– Problems following instructions

• All voters– Confidence vote was counted as intended

Non‐core questions

• Time of day voting• Race/age of poll workers• Type of place of in‐person voting• Possession of voter ID

Ability to Link Answers to Voter Characteristics

• Race• Age• Sex• Disability• Length of residence• Income• Party ID• Ideology• Interest in news/public affairs• Geocoding: county and ZIP code

HOW WE VOTE

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Election year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Election day voting

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement, various years.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Election year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Election day voting

Absentee/mail ballots


2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Election year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Election day voting

Early in-person voting

Absentee/mail ballots


0

1 0

1

01Mail

Election Day

Early

MENH

VT

MARICTNYNJPAOHIN

IL

MI

WIMN

IA

MO

ND

SDNE

KS

KEMD

DCVA

WV

NC

SCGAFL

KY

TN

ALMS

AR

LAOK

TX

MT

ID

WY

CO

NM

AZ

UT

NV

WA

OR

CA

AKHI

2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement.

0

1 0

1

01Mail

Election Day

Early

ME

NH

VT

MARICTNYNJ

PA

OH

INILMI WI

MN

IA

MO

ND

SDNE KS

DE

MD

DC

VA

WV

NC

SC

GA

FL

KY

TN

ALMS

AR

LAOK

TX

MT

IDWY

CO

NMAZ

UT

NV

WAOR

CA

AK

HI

2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement

0

1 0

1

01Mail

Election Day

Early

ALA

BAKBAY

BRABRE

BRO CAL

CHA

CIT CLA

CLL CLM

DES

DIX

DUV

ESC

FLA

FRA

GAD

GIL

GLA

GUL

HAMHAR

HEN

HER

HIGHIL

HOL

IND

JAC

JEF

LAF

LAK

LEELEO

LEVLIB

MAD

MAN

MON

DADMRN

MRT NAS

OKA

OKEORA

OSC

PAL

PAS

PIN

POL

PUTSAN

SAR

SEM

STJ

STL

SUM

SUWTAYUNIVOL

WAK

WALWAS

Source: Florida Elections Division, Voter History File, February 2012

2012

VOTER EXPERIENCE

Overall, the experience of voters on Election Day was positive

86% said it was “very easy” to find their polling place

(12% said it was “fairly easy”)

3% said they encountered a registration problem when they went to vote

13 min = avg. wait time to vote

63% said most of this time was waiting to check in

2% said they encountered voting equipment problems

78% said their polling place was run “very well – I didn’t see any problems”

(19% said “okay – I saw some minor problems, but nothing that interfered with people voting")

65% said the performance of polls workers was “excellent”

(28% said “good“)

67% said they were “very confident” that their vote was counted as cast

(26% said “somewhat confident“)

Early voting experience was very similar to that of Election Day

Early voting experience was very similar to that of Election Day

• 83% said it was “very easy” to find their polling place

• 3% said they encountered a registration problem when they went to vote

• 20 min = avg. wait time to vote

– 69% said most of this time was waiting to check in

• 2% said they encountered voting equipment problems

• 80% said their polling place was run “very well”

• 67% said the performance of polls workers was “excellent”

• 65% said they were “very confident” that their vote was counted as cast

Absentee voters also satisfied

2% said they encountered problems receiving their mail ballot

<1% said they encountered problems marking their mail ballot

83% said they found the instructions “very easy” to follow in marking their ballot

(15% said “somewhat easy”)

56% said they were “very confident” that their vote was counted as cast

(Compared to 67% and 65% for Election Day and early voting)

Who Has Problems Voting in Person?


7% of in‐person voters…

‐find it difficult to find the polling place, or‐had a problem with voter registration, or‐had a problem with the voting equipment, or‐encountered a poorly performing poll worker


Age

Younger than 35: 9% had a problem

Older than 60: 4% had a problem


Disability

With a disability: 10% had a problem

Without a disability: 6% had a problem


New residents

Lived in current house…

less than 3 years: 8% had a problem

more than 15 years: 5% had a problem


No differences by…

‐first‐time voter status‐sex‐race‐income‐early vs. election day voter

How Does Florida Compare?

How Does Florida Compare on Election Day?

• Compared to the rest of the nation…– The great majority of voters also had a positive experience

– Finding the polling place as easy and convenient as elsewhere

– the challenges come once voters were in the polling place


• 82% said it was “very easy” to find their polling place (compared to 86% nationwide)

• 4% said they encountered a registration problem when they went to vote (compared to 3% nationwide)


• 38* minutes = average time waiting to vote (compared to 13 minutes nationwide)

• 8%* said they encountered a voting equipment problem (compared to 2% nationwide) [they all mention scanners]

• 70%* said their polling place was run “very well” (compared to 78% nationwide)

• 60% said the performance of poll workers was “excellent” (compared to 65% nationwide)

*Outside the 95% confidence interval of the nationwide statistic


• 44%* said they were “very confident” their vote was counted as cast (compared to 67% nationwide)

*Outside the 95% confidence interval of the nationwide statistic

Early Voting?

• Lines were especially long, compared to the rest of the nation (53 min. vs. 20 min.)

• Early voters were significantly less likely to say early voting polling places were run “very well” (67% vs. 80%)– This is entirely due to the long lines.

• By the way, nationwide (outside of Florida), voters using libraries to vote early took an average of 26 minutes to vote, compared to 15 minutes in all other buildings.

Absentee voting?

• Roughly the same satisfaction as nationwide.

WAITING IN LINE

I’m going to be helped by an additional 50,000 responses from the

Cooperative Congressional Election Study

How Long Did People Wait?

Not at all 37%Less than 10 minutes 31%10‐30 minutes 20%31‐60 minutes 9%More than one hour 3%



Average waiting time for the 3% who waited more than an hour = 129 minutes



Overall Average = 14 minutes

VTAK

SDWY

MENE

DEIA

NJMN

NMHI

CTCA

MAMS

NVKY

IDWI

COAZ

PAAL

NDOH

UTNH

RIKS

MOWV

MTTX

ILNY

INAR

NCTN

LAGA

OKMI

SCVA

MDDC

FL

order

0

10

20

30

40

Avg.

min

utes

wai

ting

to v

ote

Charles Stewart III

1 102.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.07.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

2008

1

10

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.07.08.09.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.020

12

VT

AKSDWYME

NE DE

IA NJMN NMHI

CTCAMA MSNVKYID WI CO AZPAALND OHUTNHRI KS MOWVMT TXILNY INARNCTN

LA GAOKMI

SCVA

MDFL

Mean Wait Time by Mode

Election Day 12Early voting 20

Average wait time (min.)

County Pop. density Election Day Early Total1st quartile

(1‐75)8.1 5.1 7.5

2nd quartile(75‐570)

10.7 14.9 11.8

3rd quartile(570‐2739)

17.9 29.4 20.8

4th quartile(2739‐34000)

13.2 30.5 16.2

Average wait time (min.)

White 11.6Black 23.3Hispanic 18.7Asian Amer. 15.4Native Amer. 13.3Mixed 13.6Other 13.3

The Average Waiting Time in Florida:Large Counties

The Average Waiting Time in Florida:Add the smaller panhandle counties

The Average Waiting Time in Florida:add the smaller n. peninsula counties

The Average Waiting Time in Florida:add the smaller s. peninsula counties

The Average Waiting Time in Florida

The Average Waiting Time in Florida: Mode

Nationwide FloridaElection Day 12 33Early voting 20 46

The Average Waiting Time in Florida: Density

ZIP code pop. density Election Day Early Total1st quartile

Rural Jefferson County (1‐700)19 28 23

2nd quartileRural Hillsborough County

(700‐1960)

31 43 37

3rd quartileHomestead(1960‐3820)

28 49 38

4th quartileCentral Miami (3820‐36,832)

41 70 54

Average Waiting Time in Florida:Race

Nationwide FloridaWhite 11.6 32.3Black 23.3 54.2Hispanic 18.7 72.2Asian Amer. 15.4 16.3Native Amer. 13.3 Insuff.Mixed 13.6 25.4Other 13.3 34.7

Some thoughts about Florida’s Lines

Within Florida, national patterns hold

• Density• Early voting vs. Election Day Voting• Race

Comparing Florida to the rest of the nation…

• The persistence of long lines from 2008 to 2012 suggests that long lines are not entirelydue to short‐term factors (shortened early voting period, long ballot questions, etc.)

• Florida processes a large number of voters through voting sites, compared to peer states

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600Early voters per location per day

0

10

20

30

40

Wai

t (m

inut

es)

ARCO FLGANCNMNV TXUT

VOTER CONFIDENCE

Are you confident that your vote was counted as you intended?

2000 2004 2008 20120%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

61%

2000 2004 2008 20120%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

61%

69%

2000 2004 2008 20120%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

61%

69%70%68%

2000 2004 2008 20120%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

76%

2000 2004 2008 20120%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

52%

2000 2004 2008 20120%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Your vote Your county Your state Nationwide0%

20%

40%

60%

80%


20%

40%

60%

80%

61%

23%

41%

50%


20%

40%

60%

80%

2000 2004 2008 20120%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2004 2008 20120%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

72%

51%

2000 2004 2008 20120%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Why the hit to Florida’s voter confidence?

• Polarization of elections nationwide• Polarization of elections in Florida• Battleground state curse• Absentee ballot curse

Conclusions: Nationwide

• Drift away from in‐person voting continues• Experience overall positive in 2012• ID

– Support has sagged– Match between law and practice?

Conclusions: Nationwide

• Lines– Comparable to 2008– State persistence– Differences along density and race important

• Confidence– Dip– Polarization

Conclusions: Florida

• Voting experience overall positive, despite challenges compared to the nation

• Nationwide patterns with lines the same, but shifted up a notch

• Placing Florida’s lines in the national puzzle still a challenge

Conclusions

• Data is our friend

Charles Stewart III

• [email protected]

• @cstewartiii

• Election Updates– electionupdates.caltech.edu

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