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Transcript of A Vision Fulfilled Transformative Science, Data Infrastructures and the IPCC Experience Lawrence...
A Vision FulfilledTransformative Science, Data Infrastructures and the IPCC Experience
Lawrence BujaNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado
CAM T341- Jim Hack
NSF/DOE IPCC ProjectNCAR, ORNL, NERSC, ES
6-Year Timeline2002: Climate Model/Data-systems development2003: Climate Model Control Simulations2004: IPCC Historical and Future Simulations2005: Data Postprocessing & Analysis2006: Scientific Synthesis2007: Publication
Observations of the
Earths Climate System
Simulations Past, Present
Future Climate States
Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32
In recognition and appreciation of theIn recognition and appreciation of the
"The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 is to be shared, in two equal parts, between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al)
Gore Jr. for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change."
The National Center for Atmospheric Research The National Center for Atmospheric Research
PCMDI / LLNLPCMDI / LLNLfor its invaluable for its invaluable contributioncontribution to the CCSM3 development, production, to the CCSM3 development, production, and data analysis effort for the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.and data analysis effort for the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
CDP/ESG: A Vision FulfilledPre-2000
Home Grown Data Systems2000-Present
Community Data Portaldataportal.ucar.edudataportal.ucar.edu
2000-PresentEarth System Grid
• Initially Cheap• $$$ in long term• Limited Scale
• Modest Investment• Agile and Right-sized
for Many Projects• Institutional Scale
• Large Investment• Infrastructure for
Large Projects• Spans Institutions
Distributed Data Infrastrucres have transformed CCSM capabilites
• CCSM3.0 Release (2004)• Source Code, Input data and Documentation• So easy that it was almost an afterthought.
• IPCC AR4 (2005-present)• Distributed data services through PCMDI and NCAR • Delivered the model data for the IPCC AR 4 (WG 1)• Changed the World
• Ongoing CCWG Research
ESG data services have been a huge win for us…• Promoted use of data/metadata standards & richer metadata• Much cheaper, easier and effective• Allows us to reach huge new research/app communities (GIS)
“Lets our Scientists do Science”
Providing climate scientists with virtual proximity to large simulation results
needed for their research
• Very large distributed data archivesEasy federation of sitesAcross the US and around the world
• “Virtual Datasets” created through subsetting and aggregation• Metadata-based search and discovery• Web-based and analysis tool access• Increased flexibility and robustness• Server-side analysis
ESG GoalESG Goal Current ESG SitesCurrent ESG Sites
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.govhttp://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov
Dean Williams, PCMDI
Evolving ESG for the futureESG Data System EvolutionESG Data System Evolution
Central databaseCentralized curated data archiveTime aggregationDistribution by file transportNo ESG analysisShopping-cart-style web portalESG connection to desktop
analysis tools
Present
Testbed data sharingFederated metadata/portalsUnified user interfaceQuick look server-side analysis
with CDATLocation independenceDistributed aggregationManual data sharing/publishing
Early 2009Full data sharing (add to testbed…)Synchronized federation
metadata, data Full suite of server-side
analysis with CDATModel/observation integrationESG embedded into desktop
productivity tools with CDATGIS integrationModel intercomparison metricsUser support, life cycle
maintenance
2011
CCSM, AR5,satellite, In situ
biogeochemistry,ecosystems
CCSM, AR5,satellite, In situ
biogeochemistry,ecosystems
ESG Data ArchiveESG Data Archive
Terabytes Petabytes
CCSMAR4
CCSMAR4
Dean Williams, PCMDI
Briefing on ResultsBriefing on Results::USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Decision: Decision: a 6 month efforta 6 month effort
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Climate Change Epochs
Attribute sources of historical warming
Project range of possible non-mitigated future warming from SRES scenarios
Quantify Climate Change Commitment
• Project adaptation needs under various mitigation scenarios• Time-evolving regional climate change on
short and long-term timeframes • Quantify carbon cycle feedbacks
Before IPCC AR4 After
Conclusion: With the wide public acceptance of the IPCC AR4 findings, the climate science community is now facing the new challenge of quantifying time evolving regional climate change that human societies will have to adapt to under several possible mitigation scenarios, as well as addressing the size of carbon cycle feedbacks with more comprehensive Earth System Models
Geoengineering strategies
• Space mirrors, (Wood, Angel)
• High Altitude Sulphur injections
• Seeding stratocumulus clouds to brighten clouds
• Sequestration of CO2
• Iron Fertilization, ...
Phil Rasch NCAR
We are not proposing that geo-engineering be carried out! We are proposing that the implications should be carefully explored.
2: 0.3%
3: 0.3-0.9%
4. Commitment
1. A2
Maintaining A2 TS at commitment level by reducing solar irradiance
Future Plans
The overarching goal is to ensure that CCSM plays a substantial and credible leadership role in climate change science, and makes substantial contributions to national and international coordinated climate change experiments and assessments
The current model development timeline anticipates CCSM4 in 2009 in time to participate in the next set of internationally coordinated mitigation scenario experiments in 2010-2011
short term climate change: 30-year climate predictions at higher resolution and a single scenario long term climate change: 300-year climate change simulations at medium resolution and carbon cycle for benchmark mitigation scenarios
A next-generation Earth System Model will also be under development during this time period.
T42 2.8°
FV 2.0°
T85 1.4°
FV 1.0°
T170 0.7°
FV 0.5°T340 .36° FV 0.25° FV 0.1°
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Hor
izon
tal G
rid
Siz
e (K
m)
310k m
220k m
160k m
110k m
78k m
55k m
39k m 28k m11k m
Lawrence Buja (NCAR)
GlobalGeneral Atm/Ocn
Circulation
Continental Scale Flow
Carbon Cycle + BGC Spinups
RegionalMJO/MLC
Convergence
IPCC AR31998
IPCC AR42004 4TF
Sub-RegionalHurricanes
IPCC AR52010 500TF
CCSM Grand Challenge2010 1PF
MSE3 Climate Topics SummaryDOE’s ten-year vision to use exascale computing to
revolutionize DOE’s approaches to energy, environmental sustainability and security global challenges.
Exascale systems provide and unprecedented opportunity for science to use computation not only as an critical tool along with theory and experiment in understanding the behavior of the fundamental components of nature but also for fundamental discovery and exploration of the behavior of complex systems with billions of components including those involving humans.
Download complete MSE3 Report at http://www.er.doe.gov/ASCR/ProgramDocuments/TownHall.pdf
ESG/CDP enabling CCSM Science Mission
Lessons Learned• Obs data is both very similar and different from model data• Don’t let scientists build their data systems on their own!
…but don’t let the CS folks do it alone, either• Effective Data Infrastructures Require Sustained Investment
PCMDI IPCC WG1 Archive• Standards can unite communities (GO-ESSP)• Keep a tight focus on the community that you serve• Effective Collaborations can be huge resource multipliers
Looking Forward• Globally Federated Distributed Data Portals for IPCC AR5• Build balanced systems! Obs/Compute + Data + Analysis