A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang.
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Transcript of A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang.
![Page 1: A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/5697bfdf1a28abf838cb2651/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A System Dynamics A System Dynamics Approach to Global WarmingApproach to Global Warming
(Noah) Junho Kang(Noah) Junho Kang
![Page 2: A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/5697bfdf1a28abf838cb2651/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Purpose/GoalsPurpose/Goals
• Create a convincing model of global warming scenario
• Complicated enough to explain the whole scenario to a reasonable extent, but simple enough to be understood easily and applied
![Page 3: A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/5697bfdf1a28abf838cb2651/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Scope of the ProjectScope of the Project
• Estimate, to a certain degree, the effects that increasing amount of Carbon Dioxide gas will have on the Earth's atmosphere over a fixed period of time. The "effects" currently include, but is not limited to, global temperatures, frequency of hurricanes, methane release, and other consequences that will arise from increasing global temperature.
![Page 4: A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/5697bfdf1a28abf838cb2651/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Expected ResultsExpected Results
• Direct Cause-and-effect relationship between Earth’s Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Concentration
• Demonstrate the negative impacts of Global Warming
• Accelerating Cycle of Global Warming
![Page 5: A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/5697bfdf1a28abf838cb2651/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
BackgroundBackground
• Daisyworld
• Parallel Computing-based Climate Simulations
• System Dynamics Modeling and Agent-based Modeling
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TheoryTheory
• System Dynamics Modeling
• Netlogo
• STELLA
• Complex System Modeling
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Current Progress on ModelCurrent Progress on Model
• Five Stocks: Land, Soil, Atmosphere, Ocean and Fuel
• Eight Flows: External Addition, Photosynthesis, Respirations
• Variables
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System Dynamics Model System Dynamics Model (Carbon Cycle)(Carbon Cycle)
Ocean Atmosphere Fossil Fuel
Soil Land BiotaOut/In
(Negligible)
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System Dynamics Model System Dynamics Model (Secondary)(Secondary)
Global Temperature
Ice Hurricanes
AlbedoOcean
TemperatureMethane in Atmosphere
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Variables UsedVariables Used
• Fossile Fuel: Amount of Carbon inside Fossile Fuel
• Atmosphere: Amount of Carbon (Mostly Carbon Dioxide and Methane) inside Atmosphere, directly affects Global Temperature
• Land Biota: Amount of Carbon present in Land organisms, like plants. Help control the amount of carbon by Photosynthesis/Respiration
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Variables Used - ContinuedVariables Used - Continued
• Soil: Amount of Carbon present in Soil, controls the amount of Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere by respiration and slowly recovers the amount of Fossil Fuel.
• Ocean: Amount of Carbon present in Ocean, mostly in the form of Carbon Dioxide and Methane dissolved in water. Potentially very important, helps control amount of carbon by dissolving it.
![Page 12: A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/5697bfdf1a28abf838cb2651/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Equations UsedEquations Used
• External Addition (Fossil Fuel → Atmosphere, mostly)
• Photosynthesis (Land → Atmosphere)((Pmax * (pCO2_eff / (pCO2_eff + Khs))) * (1 + (Tsens_p * global-temp)))
• Plant Respiration (Atmosphere → Land)– (Photosynthesis * .5) / dt
![Page 13: A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/5697bfdf1a28abf838cb2651/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Equations Used - ContinuedEquations Used - Continued
• Litter Fall (Land → Soil)– (50 * (Land / 610))
• Soil Respiration (Soil → Atmosphere)– ((49.4 / INIT_Soil) * Soil * (1 +
(Tsens_sr * global-temp)))• Runoff (Soil → )– (0.6 * (Soil / INIT_soil))
![Page 14: A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming (Noah) Junho Kang.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/5697bfdf1a28abf838cb2651/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Progress on Code - 1QTProgress on Code - 1QT
• Output system consisting of an Output file and a graph
• Automatic external addition correction checks 10,000 ticks during run
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Progress on Code - 2QTProgress on Code - 2QT
• External Addition Cycle
• Netlogo Chart Output
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ResultsResults
• Current results show a relationship between global temperature and Carbon Dioxide concentration in Atmosphere.
• As Carbon Dioxide concentration in Atmosphere increases, Earth’s self-balancing system starts working, and attempts to balance the temperature.
• Climate change is accelerated by melting of ice and release of Methane gas.
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Results – Before Fuel AdditionResults – Before Fuel Addition
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Results – After Fuel AdditionResults – After Fuel Addition