A study on the impact of global currency fluctuations with a special focus to Indian Rupee

Aman Vij IIM Ranchi

A study on the impact of Global Currency Fluctuations. A special focus to Indian Rupee.

Title of the Industry Assignment A study on the impact of Global Currency Fluctuations. A special focus to Indian Rupee.

Key Words FII, CAD, QE, Currency Swap, FCNR, CPI, Repo Rate, Tequila Crisis, ETF, Hedge

Executive Summary The paper discusses about the factors influencing and impact of currency fluctuations on global

economy. Then we shift our focus to Indian rupees factors which causes the Rupee fluctuations has

been discussed. In the end we discuss about the steps taken by the RBI and the government and what

else can be done by investors to lessen the impact of Global currency fluctuations and what can be done

to prevent Indian Rupee fluctuation.

Table of Contents

Title of the Industry Assignment ................................................................................................................... 1

Key Words ..................................................................................................................................................... 1

Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1

Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................................... 1

Exhibits .......................................................................................................................................................... 2

Figures ........................................................................................................................................................... 4

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 5

Literature Review .......................................................................................................................................... 5

Analytical Interpretation on the topic .......................................................................................................... 7

Suggestions ................................................................................................................................................. 11

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 12

Aman Vij IIM Ranchi


Exhibits

Exhibit 1

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-21/news/40119665_1_weak-rupee-us-dollar-operating-margins

Exhibit 2

http://www2.blackrock.com/us/individual-investors/insight-education/global-investing/global-investing

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-21/news/40119665_1_weak-rupee-us-dollar-operating-margins

http://www2.blackrock.com/us/individual-investors/insight-education/global-investing/global-investing

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Exhibit 3

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/01/14/chart-of-the-week-how-important-is-manufacturing-to-emerging-markets/#axzz2ccpgTM7t

Exhibit 4

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/01/14/chart-of-the-week-how-important-is-manufacturing-to-emerging-markets/#axzz2ccpgTM7t

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN

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Figures

Table 1

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2010/06/09/eurogold-currency-crisis-accelerates

Table 2

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2010/06/09/eurogold-currency-crisis-accelerates

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/

Aman Vij IIM Ranchi


Introduction

This study aims to explore the dynamics, factors influencing and impact of fluctuations in the currency.

Currency fluctuations are simply the ongoing changes between the relative values of the currency issued

by one country when compared to a different currency. These changes are something that occur every

day and affect the relative rate of exchange between various currencies on a continual basis. It is these

fluctuations that investors in currency exchange deals look to closely in order to generate a profit from

their investments. Exchange rates are among the most monitored, analyzed and governmentally

manipulated economic measures. Currency fluctuation also impacts the real return of an investor's

portfolio, profitability of firms, and growth of specific sectors amongst various other determinants of the

economy.

Literature Review

Exchange rate has fluctuated a lot from 1990-91.Indian rupee had fallen by almost 20% in this fiscal

year. Fall in the value of rupee has induced exports to rise ahead of income. Imports have not been

significantly affected by depreciating value of rupee, indicating positively sloped demand curve for

imports. Results of decomposition model of export earnings and import bills show the pivotal role of

change in exchange rate, though the quantitative dimension is relatively more important in imports than

exports

In mid-1991, India's exchange rate was subjected to a severe adjustment. This event began with a slide

in the value of the rupee leading up to mid-1991. The authorities at the Reserve Bank of India slowed

the decline in value by expending international reserves. With reserves nearly depleted, however, the

exchange rate was devalued sharply on July 1 and July 3 against major foreign currencies. This paper

seeks the answers through error correction models and by constructing the equilibrium real exchange

rate using a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The evidence indicates that

overvaluation as well as current account deficits and investor confidence played significant roles in the

sharp exchange rate depreciation.

http://www.jstor.org/stable/3872503

The 2006 paper on The Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in India finds that the real exchange

rate of the Rupee against the US dollar is non-stationary and that real shocks have permanent effects on

the exchange rate, thus making exchange rate management at best futile and possibly harmful to the

economy.

The liberalisation of the financial sector of developing countries has long been advocated by the

financial repressionists' as a means of stimulating investment and economic growth (see for example,

McKinnon (1973), and Shaw (1973)). Such liberalisations, however, frequently lead to a sharp rise in

capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation. Under a fixed nominal exchange rate policy, the rise


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in the liberalised domestic interest rate lead to a capital inflow, which through central bank intervention

to peg the exchange rate leads to a rise in the money supply and higher aggregate demand. This in turn

raises the domestic price level causing a permanent, real exchange rate appreciation. With a floating

exchange rate, the net capital inflow is likely to lead directly to a nominal and real exchange rate

appreciation. If the nominal appreciation makes domestic products less competitive abroad and demand

for them falls in the longer run the domestic price level may fall to restore the real exchange rate to its

former level. In this case the real appreciation is only temporary. If, however, the interest rate

liberalisation is supported by more general price liberalisation process, as in the transition economies of

Central and Eastern Europe, then the higher domestic prices will continue to cause a real appreciation

perhaps long after the financial liberalisation is complete. It follows that identifying the sources of

exchange rate fluctuations is important if exchange rate stabilisation is to be achieved. Attempts to

stabilise exchange rate changes that are due to structural changes in the economy could be futile and

potentially damaging to the economy. As a consequence it is important to be able to measure and to be

able to distinguish between, the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks on exchange

rates.

Recent attempts to distinguish between permanent and transitory shocks on exchange rates have found

that for developed countries real shocks are more important than nominal shocks in accounting for real

exchange rate fluctuations (see, for example, Lastrapes (1992), and Evans and Lothian (1993)). Similar

results have been found for Japan, although for Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines the impact of real

shocks on the real exchange rate have been found to be relatively less important (Chen and Wu, 1997).

For high inflation countries, however, such as Brazil and Argentina, Hoffmaister and Roldos (2001) find

that nominal shocks have potentially relatively larger effects than permanent on real exchange rate

movements. In the context of the transition economies, there is also a distinction to be made between

high and low inflation countries. For example, Diboolu and Kutan (2001) find that for low-inflation

Hungary real shocks predominate whereas for high-inflation Poland, nominal shocks are more important

as sources of variation in the real exchange rates. This paper attempts to assess the sources of the real

exchange rate appreciation in India since financial liberalisation in the early 1990s, using the long-run,

structural VAR approach. India is an interesting case study because in the early 1990s it embarked on a

substantial and wide-ranging liberalisation policy, which led to large net capital inflows and the eventual

adoption of a floating exchange rate policy in March 1993, after a brief transitional phase of dual

exchange rates. These reforms have led to high rates of economic growth and greater trading links with

the rest of the world.



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Analytical Interpretation on the topic

A weak currency is the sign of a weak economy, and a weak economy leads to a weak nation. – Ross

Perot

History is filled with numerous examples (Table 1) of what havoc currency fluctuations can cause on an

economy:

1. Tequila Crisis of 1994-95: The current-account deficit of Mexico went to a dangerous 7% of

GDP and its foreign-exchange reserves dwindled which resulted in the snapping of peso's

fixed exchange rate against the dollar. The currency plunged by around 50% within six

months. This in turn caused the local-currency value of the government's large dollar-

linked debts to swell enormously and sent Mexico into a deep recession. Many banks went

bust. Thousands of Mexicans, particularly in the new middle class, defaulted on loans as

interest rates rocketed, and had their homes repossessed. In 1995 GDP shrank by 6.2%

2. The Asian crisis of 1997-98 –The devaluation of the Thai baht in July 1997 occurred after the

baht came under intense speculative attack, forcing Thailand’s central bank to abandon its peg

to the U.S. dollar and float the currency. This triggered a financial collapse that spread like

wildfire to the neighboring economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Hong Kong. The

currency contagion led to a severe contraction in these economies as bankruptcies soared and

stock markets plunged.

Similar to Thailand, where there was an over investment in commercial real estate, Korea had

an over investment in non-real estate means of production like factories, machinery, overseas

acquisitions, etc. When growth was strong, the Korean private sector could maintain high debt

loads. However, when growth starts to slow and plateau, it becomes difficult to maintain a high

debt load and it's at this stage where problems developed. Korea's central bank which was

sitting on $25 billion in dollar reserves believed that they had ample protection against the Asian

contagion but evidently, only $9 billion of the supposed $25 billion was actually liquid and

available for use as actual reserves. Much of it was already dispersed to smaller Korean banks

and tied up to support short-term foreign debt obligations. However, in this case reserves were

not available for the upcoming economic crisis. So, when currency speculators attacked the

won, the South Korean central bank could not come up with a sufficient answer and speculators

were able to devalue.

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Rupee Fluctuation

The depreciating rupee is a burning issue with the industry and media alike clamoring for reforms.

Some of the biggest reasons for their concerns are:

1. Firstly the imports will get costlier thereby widening the Current Account Deficit. The costly

imports will provide an upward push to the already raging inflation. Fuel, consumer goods will

get costlier consequently raising the retail and wholesale inflation.

2. Secondly, the FIIs have started to exit the capital markets big time. The government needs to act

before the capital flows slow down or even worse, reverse. India will have to delve into its

FOREX reserves to counter the capital outflows which will further put pressure on the rupee.

The table 2 in Figures shows that from February 2013 to August 2013 the FII’s were net buyers,

but as the news of tapering of QE3 came in June, the FII’s became net sellers in the period (data

till 12th July) both in the equity as well as the debt market.

3. Thirdly, Companies with foreign debt will come under increased stress as the rolling over of

debts will get costlier. Corporate profit margins may thus fall further. Due to this new foreign

companies will shy away from investing in India.

On the other hand even if depreciating rupee helps exports, the decrease in the overall demand from

foreign markets is not boosting it. According to Prasad Koparkar, Senior Director, CRISIL Research,

“Demand growth and competitiveness, rather than currency movements, are more critical to

determining growth and profitability. Around 180 listed export-oriented companies reported a marginal

1-2 per cent growth in revenues in dollar terms and 60-bps rise in EBITDA margins in 2012-13, despite

a weak currency”. So it is necessary for India to wake up quickly and take some immediate steps to curb

the rupee depreciation.

The question that follows is why is this happening? The recovery in the US economy had prompted US

Fed to begin tapering of the $85-billion per month quantitative easing (QE) that has been on since

September 2012. Anticipating this, foreign investors were pulling out their money from India to invest it

back in the US, which is resulting in a scarcity of dollars in India. The fear of the US Federal Reserve (Fed)

tapering its quantitative easing III (QE) has spread across all asset classes resulting in an appreciating

dollar. This leads to another question, Why is Indian Currency (Rupee) so vulnerable to US Federal

Reserve QE program?

There are 4 main factors responsible for this:

1. Strong correlation with the dollar index. Post-independence India required huge investments in

infrastructure. But 200 years of colonial rule had resulted in a capital deficiency which led to India

having to depend on external borrowings from IMF and the World Bank. This led to constant

devaluation of the Rupee the most prominent milestones on this road being 1966 and 1991. Moreover

India is an import oriented economy forcing us to pay in dollars; hence the strong dependence on Dollar.

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2. High Ratio of Foreign Institutional Investors Inflows India being a developing economy attracts a lot

of Hot Money (short term foreign inflows) as foreign investors expect higher returns on their

investments as compared to developed economies. According to Nomura Global Markets Research the

ratio of FII to Total Market Cap is 16.4 %. As can be seen, our capital markets are flooded with foreign

capital making it susceptible to fluctuations whenever they withdraw capital from our economy.

3. Low domestic savings:-Over the last 20 years there has been a structural decline in equity savings in

India. Our savings has dropped by 5% from the last 5 years. In order to promote savings the real interest

rate will have to increase which can be done in 2 ways either by increasing the nominal interest rate or

lowering the inflation.

4. Weak Balance of Payment Positions India imports more than it exports as a result of which trade

balance always shows a deficit which reflects in its Current account deficit (CAD) figures which fell to

record 4.8% of GDP for the 2012-13 fiscal. This weak balance of payments leads to ever persistent

demand for Dollar which puts depreciatory pressure on Rupee on account of payments for petroleum

products, gold, etc. The depreciation of the local currency is a trend that has been seen across all

emerging markets. Indonesia, Thailand and Brazil have all been hit with the same bug hence it comes as

no surprise that India is also among the affected. Moreover Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have

withdrawn from the bond markets of these countries in the past few weeks. A risk-off approach has

been seen globally which has led to redemptions from global exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Consequently, the sustained selling by FIIs in the Indian equity market has added to the rupee’s

troubles.

Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining (Exhibit 1)

India has become a more attractive destination amid the sharp depreciation. With the rupee becoming

cheap compared to the US dollar, the tourists are pouring into and report says there is 15 % enhance in

foreign bookings as equated to previous year. The beach destinations of Goa and Kerala are once again

becoming favourite spots and the Government needs to launch focussed advertising and promotion

overdrive, to bring in more capital to the country. Again, there are certain people who are revelling on

the depreciation phenomenon- the exporters. They would find the dollar value of their exports falling

with possible positive effects on demand curve. And those locked into long-term contracts denominated

in dollars would witness their rupee revenues and profits soaring up. The exporters of IT and IT-enabled

services can take maximum advantage over the situation.

Fiscal Steps Taken To Curb Slide

• Raising FDI caps like in telecom raised to 100% from 74%, insurance sector raised to 49% from

present 26%, subject to Parliament approval, FDI up to 49% in petroleum, refining power

exchange, tea plantation and stock exchanges allowed under automatic route, from earlier

approval route, Raised FDI in asset reconstruction companies to 100% from 74%; of this up to

49% will be under automatic route, credit information companies to 74% from 49%., FDI up to

100% through automatic route allowed in courier services

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• Paying for imports in local currency India could save $8.5 billion in foreign exchange spending

on crude oil imports in 2013/14 if it relied more on supplies from Iran, which is able to accept

payment in rupees

• Raising the currency swap arrangement between India and Japan to USD 50 billion from USD 15

billion

• The Government has increased the import duty on gold from 4% to 8% in the last six months to

discourage gold imports which accounts for significant part of CAD (Current Account Deficit)

resulting in decline in Gold imports. The RBI imposed that all gold imports intended for domestic

consumption and made through either nominated agencies or directly, would have to be

through 100% cash margins

Monetary Steps Taken To Curb Slide

• New bank licenses: NBFC stocks such as Bajaj Finance, JM Financial etc rally in trade after the

new governor, Dr. Raghuram Rajan roughly indicated that new bank licenses are likely to be

announced around January 2014.

• Interest rate measures: RBI in its recent policy has increased the repo rate by 25 basis point to

7.50% in order to reduce the liquidity in the market. This will increase the yield in the Indian

bond market compared to U.S bond market

• Currency measures: The RBI announced a fixed-rate swap for FCNR (B) deposits which are

dollar-denominated deposits for expat Indians. This is for three years at 3.5%, for over 3-year

deposits.

• Overseas borrowing limit for banks: The RBI has also increased the current overseas borrowing

limit for banks from 50 per cent of the unimpaired Tier I capital to 100 per cent. This can be

swapped with the RBI at the bank's option at a concessional rate of 100bp below the prevailing

market swap rate.

• Issuance of Inflation Indexed Savings Certificates linked to the CPI New Index: To protect

savings for households, the RBI is expected to introduce Inflation Indexed Savings Certificates

linked to the CPI to retail investors by November 2013.

• Asking Oil Companies to buy their dollar requirements from one bank/institution: The Oil

companies are the largest dollar buyers in the domestic market with nearly $7 billion purchase

per month. They buy Dollar from domestic market by seeking competitive quotes from multiple

public, private and foreign institutions thereby adding to the volatility of the market. So RBI has

asked these oil companies to buy more of the currency from single public/private

banks/institutions and reduce the volatility of the rupee

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Suggestions

We can look at the solutions in 2 ways:-

1) What investor/business can do to protect himself in case of currency fluctuation

2) In reference to India’s context what can be done in order to avoid Rupee fluctuation

In order to protect against currency fluctuations an investor can take the following things:-

• Global Investing: If you believe that local currency is in a secular decline, invest in strong

overseas markets, because your returns will be boosted by the appreciation in the foreign currency.

Many major foreign markets have outperformed US stocks in recent years. In the past decade, the

United States could be counted among the top 10 performing markets only once (Exhibit 2). Since

economic cycles in foreign markets often differ from those driving local markets, investing in foreign

securities helps to mitigate risk better than an all-domestic portfolio

• MNC’s investing: There are large number of multinational companies, many of which derive a

substantial part of their revenues and earnings from foreign countries. For e.g. Even during the recent

Rupee Depreciation when most of the markets were falling, the S&P BSE IT Index moved up by 18.86% in

the last six months while the S&P BSE Healthcare index has moved up 14% over the last six months.

• Hedge currency risk: Adverse currency moves can significantly impact your finances, especially if

you have substantial forex exposure. But plenty of choices are available to hedge currency risk, from

currency futures and forwards, to currency options and Currency exchange-traded funds such as the

CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) can be used to make a direct bet on a rising euro versus the U.S. dollar,

while the WisdomTree Brazilian Real (BZF) can be used to bet on the Latin American nation. The

simplest approach is just to monitor the changes, and this can be the best option if companies do not

think that they are at a particularly high risk from exchange rate fluctuations. Companies can also hedge

against the exposure via derivatives. Although this may be the most complicated option, it can be

effective in limiting exposure to volatility. If your currency risk is large enough to keep you awake at

nights, consider hedging this risk.

In order to be make the rupee stable we need to make our economy stronger by focusing on the

following three things

1) Increasing domestic consumption

2) Reviving the manufacturing sector

3) Reducing our dependence on other economies for energy

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For tackling the 1st problem we can take the help of china model wherein China in order to overcome

the impact of fall in exports because of reduced demand from developed economies moved onto

increasing the investment on infrastructure which ultimately led to higher domestic demand. We should

provide better business starting environment by removing policy paralysis. Other than that our priority

should also be to clear the 215 odd projects worth Rs 7 L crore stuck in red tape. This will lead to greater

job opportunities which in turn lead to greater incomes and thus greater demand and our consumption

will increase. Thus our Indian business houses which goes outside because of better support will stay in

India itself and thus we would reduce our dependence on FDI and FII.

The share of manufacturing is only 16% in the economy (Exhibit 3). The gap between India’s domestic

production and needs of its 1.2 billion population is therefore met by imports. To reduce the dependence

on imported goods, India needs to have a sustainable, self-sufficient manufacturing sector. To revive the

manufacturing sector, Government of India needs to provide incentives for enhancing the private

investment in the sector. The incentives could be in the form of tax breaks on investment, lesser

restrictions on opening of a new business, lower interest rate loans.

For overcoming the 3rd problem we need to encourage oil companies to invest more on R&D and explore

more sources like the underwater reserves, new basins. Inspite of the fact that India has huge coal

reserves, we are still importing coal. Also we have a huge gap between our oil production and

consumption (Exhibit 4) which is adding to our trade and current account deficit. We should also invest

more in renewable sources of energy like solar, wind and hydro. Other than that we should also focus

on entering into long term contracts with oil rich countries to reduce the effect of volatile pricing of spot

markets.

Conclusion

Currency moves can have a wide-ranging impact not just on a domestic economy, but also on the global

one. Investors can use such moves to their advantage by global investing. Because currency moves can

be a potent risk when one has a large forex exposure, it may be best to hedge this risk through the many

hedging instruments available.

Coming to the Indian Rupee, over and above the steps taken by the RBI and the government, we need to

keep the growth story of India intact which has attracted a lot of investors to us so far. India still requires

a lot of capital in priority sectors such as infrastructure which has suffered a lot due to policy paralysis.

Hence it is imperative for the Indian government to concentrate on bringing structural changes which

would could reduce frequent fluctuations in Rupee’s value.

A study on the impact of global currency fluctuations with a special focus to Indian Rupee

Economy & Finance

Transcript of A study on the impact of global currency fluctuations with a special focus to Indian Rupee