A structured decision approach for assessing the value of ecological systems and services

SNR

Skunkworks

A structured decision approach for assessing the value of ecological

systems and services

Joseph ArvaiThe Ohio State University

Decision Research

SNR

Skunkworks

The Case of Water Use Planningin British Columbia

• Work with B.C. Hydro on a comprehensive, stakeholder-based development of revised operating plans at all major hydroelectric facilities.

• In response to increasing, competing demands on provincial water resources

SNR

Skunkworks

Scale Issues

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Adapted from Ohlsen 2003; unpublished

SNR

Skunkworks

Scale Issues

SNR

Skunkworks


• Multiple Objectives:1. *Electricity generation/trade2. *Environmental quality

• Water, land, & air3. *Recreation opportunities4. *Cultural values 5. Public and employee safety6. Foster stakeholder-based initiatives7. Learn over time; reduce uncertainty

* Attributes of “value” associated with the ecological system and its services.

SNR

Skunkworks


http://www.bchydro.com/wup/

• The challenges were to:– assess the “value” of

the system under competing water management options (including, in some cases, a “restore natural conditions” option) and,

– take into consideration multiple objectives (and measures).

SNR

Skunkworks

Decision Aiding in Brief• “Value” is ascribed to systems in the context of

doing (e.g., development) or not doing (e.g., preservation) something to them; i.e., options.

• While we might apply different weights to its various elements, the “value” of ecological systems and services is multiattribute in nature.

• Based on the notion that the “value” of ecological systems and services is driven by people’s knowledge, perceptions, and their objectives.

SNR

Skunkworks

Decision Aiding in Brief• The approach emphasizes:

1. Eliciting objectives from various stakeholders.

2. Identifying options for management (e.g., preservation, sustainable extraction, development, etc.).

3. Establishing attributes of/measures for each objective.

4. Generating a matrix across these objectives and options and addressing the tradeoffs that selecting one option over another entails.

SNR

Skunkworks

Decision Aiding in Brief• A note about attributes and measures:

1. Natural Measures - Direct measures of an attribute• e.g., monetary value of electricity generated ($)

2. Constructed Measures - Measures created for an attribute

• e.g., annual probability of a flood severe enough to damage homes

3. Proxy Measures - Indirect measures of an attribute• e.g., habitat quality as a measure of the health of

salmonid populations

SNR

Skunkworks

Why this approach?• Legislative mandate• Process-oriented objectives:

– Comprehensive approach– “Workable” decision tasks (Simon)– Enhanced stakeholder understanding and

participation• Outcome-oriented objectives:

– High level of consent to operate (BC Hydro)– Long-lasting results

SNR

Skunkworks

Water Use Planning in B.C.Participants

• BC Hydro (Crown Corporation)• Federal Government• Provincial Government• Local Government• First Nations• Community Stakeholders

– Home owners, business operators, etc.

SNR

Skunkworks

Water Use Planning in B.C.Objectives, Attributes, MeasuresObjectives *Attributes/MeasuresRecreation e.g., Weighted User Days

Erosion e.g., Weighted Erosion Days

Flooding e.g., Weighted Flood Days (flow level)

Fish e.g., % Available Habitat, IBI

Water Supply e.g., Water Quality Impact Rating

Cultural Heritage e.g., Consistency Rating

Financial e.g., Annual Revenues M$ / Year

*May use multiple methods to obtain data

SNR

Skunkworks

Water Use Planning in B.C.e.g., Financial Objectives &

Attributes

M A R KE T VA LU EO F P O W E R

TOTAL FINANCIALVALUE

CO S T O F M O N IT O R IN GAN D M IT IG AT IO N P G M S

M O N ITO R IN G A NDM IT IG A T IO N PG M S

TH E RM A L P O W E RPR O D U CE D GHG EMISSIONS

N E W C A P IT A L W O R KS C A P IT A L C O ST S T O T AL C O S T S

TO T AL R EV E N U E S

O P ER A TIN G C O S TS

W AT E R M AN A G E M EN T :

RESERVO IR LEVELS FLO W RAT ES DIVER SIO N FLO W S RAM PING RAT ES

PO W E R G E N ER A TIO N:

AM O U N T O FG EN ER AT IO N

T IM E O F G ENERAT IO N


SNR

Skunkworks

Water Use Planning in B.C.e.g., Recreation Objectives &

AttributesRESERVOIR

LEVELS

FLO A T IN GD E BR IS

RECREATION

OPPORTUNITIES QUALITY

DEBRISMANAGEMENT

VIS U ALQ U A LIT Y

B O A TIN G &S W IM M ING C O N D IT IO N S SAFETY

DIVERSIONFLOW S

TOURISMFLOW RATES KA YA K & C A N O E IN G

C O N DIT IO N S

AC CE S S TO : BEAC H BO AT LAU N C H SH O R ELIN E

ST A ND IN GD E BR IS

S H O R E LIN EER O SIO N

N O N -C O N FO R M IN GPAR K USE

N A TU R A L H IST O R Y


SNR

Skunkworks

Water Use Planning in B.C.Assessing Value

Objectives Attributes Option 1 Option 2 Option 3EnvironmentConserve Salmon

EconomicRevenue Generation

SocialRecreation Opportunities

Consequence Table


SNR

Skunkworks





Elicited fromstakeholders

SNR

Skunkworks





Established throughconsultations withtechnical experts

SNR

Skunkworks



% Viable Spawning Habitat


NPV ($)


Number of User-Days

PredictiveMeasurable

UnderstandablePractical

SNR

Skunkworks


Objectives Attributes Mimic Natural Hydrograph

Enhanced Summer Releases

Enhanced Winter Releases

EnvironmentConserve Salmon



NPV ($)


Number of User-Days

Established throughconsultations withstakeholders andtechnical experts

SNR

Skunkworks








NPV ($)


Number of User-Days

MEASURESPredictive

MeasurableUnderstandable

Practical

SNR

Skunkworks







50 20 30


NPV ($) $60 Million $80 Million $65 Million


Number of User-Days 1400 1200 1500

SNR

Skunkworks







50 20 30





“Value” is not afunction of anyone measure

SNR

Skunkworks







50 20 30





Nor is it just the function of some composite score

SNR

Skunkworks







50 20 30





Instead, the value of a givenoption exists in the tradeoffs

that people are willing to makeacross not just their objectives,

but also the level of achievementwith respect to them.

SNR

Skunkworks







50 20 25





SNR

Skunkworks

Objectives AttributesMimic

Natural Hydrograph


Enhanced Winter

Releases



50 20 30


NPV ($$) $ 60 M $ 80 M $ 65 M


# of user days 1400 1200 1500

Range of ValuesNat

6040

100

ExpectedLowHigh

Sum

8010140

RISK PROFILES

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

20 60 100 140

Prob

abili

ty

Expected Value

Nat Sum

Water Use Planning in B.C.Risk & Uncertainty


SNR

Skunkworks

Upper Campbell / Buttle Lake: Erosion - Days / Year

Alternative

wei

ghte

d da

ys (2

20 a

nd 2

21 m

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

E F G H I J

Best Impact (9 years out of 10)

Median

Worst Impact (9 years out of 10)

Water Use Planning in B.C.


SNR

Skunkworks

Water Use Planning in B.C.Alternatives

Objective Attribute E F G H I JUpper Campbell / Buttle Lake

Erosion - Days / Year weighted days (220 and 221 m) 37 13 4 3 3 3Recreation - Days / Year weighted days (217.5, 218.5, 200m by season)43 40 106 158 158 158Effective Littoral Zone hectares 91 107 93 214 215 220

Lower Campbell / McIvor / FryErosion - Days / Year weighted days (177.4 and 178.3 m) 3 27 13 0 0 0Recreation - Days / Year weighted days (175.75 - 177.8 by season) 115 43 83 167 170 167Spawning Habitat - Cutthroat % Available Habitat 78 18 95 79 79 78Spawning Habitat - Rainbow % Available Habitat 26 3 49 49 47 50

Campbell RiverFlooding - Total Days weighted days (300, 453, 530 cms) 34 48 24 59 59 59Recreation - Days / Year weighted days (28 cms - 80 cms) 66 83 51 81 79 81Total Spill Days - All Species days (Q>340cms, Sept 22 - April 15) 118 214 102 176 177 176Spawning Habitat - All Species % successful redds (Chum as indicator) 55 89 78 59 59 59Rearing Habitat - All Species "Average" risk index (scale 0 - 1) 0.53 0.48 0.53 0.50 0.49 0.49

Salmon RiverCanoe Route - Days / Year days (Q<6cms, April 1 - Oct 22) 162 167 153 204 183 204All Habitat - All Species "Average" risk index (scale 0 - 1) 0.54 0.47 0.44 0.48 0.47 0.47

System-WidePower / Financial Annual Revenue M $ / Year 68.5 64.6 68.6 65.1 65.3 64.1


SNR

Skunkworks

Moving From Alternative:E

To Alternative:G

Results In:

Upper Campbell / Buttle LakeG A decrease in Erosion - Days / Year of 33 weighted daysG An increase in Recreation - Days / Year of 63 weighted daysY An increase in Effective Littoral Zone of 2 hectares

Lower Campbell / McIvor / FryR An increase in Erosion - Days / Year of 10 weighted daysR A decrease in Recreation - Days / Year of 32 weighted daysG An increase in Spawning Habitat - Cutthroat of 17 %

Campbell RiverG A decrease in Flooding - Total Days of 10 weighted daysR A decrease in Recreation - Days / Year of 16 weighted daysG An increase in Spawning Habitat - All Species of 23 %Y No change in Rearing Habitat - All Species of 0 in average risk

Salmon RiverY A decrease in Canoe Route - Days / Year of 9 daysG A decrease in All Habitat - All Species of 0.1 in average risk

System-WideY An increase in Power / Financial of 0.1 M $ / Year

Denotes an improvement in the PM greater than the significant difference.Denotes a worsening in the PM greater than the significant difference.Denotes a change in the PM that is less than the significant differencfe.

Water Use Planning in B.C.


SNR

Skunkworks

Methodological Notes1. Data types and sources?

• Economic assessments - BC Hydro, independent consultants

• Environmental assessments - BC Hydro, WLAP, DFO, University Scientists, independent consultants

• Recreation impacts - local residents, user groups• Cultural impacts - tribal representatives, university

researchers

2. Interdisciplinary?• Fully integrates ecological and economic models;

engages experts and non-experts

SNR

Skunkworks

Methodological Notes3. Results published/peer-reviewed?

• Yes• Case studies• Experimental trials

4. Results used?• Approach originally conceived as a pilot project at a

single site• Now implemented at 23 sites province wide (18 Water

Use Plans completed to date)• Mandated review periods (e.g., 5 and 11 years for the

Bridge River plan)

SNR

Skunkworks

Methodological Notes5. Strengths

• Takes into account multiple dimensions of value• Explicitly addresses key sources of uncertainty• Links choice of methods with the objectives of key

stakeholders• Explicit about the need to make tradeoffs

6. Weaknesses• Time and effort intensive (2-3 days to 2-3 years)• Varying costs• Best suited to cases with a single decision maker• Elements of “art” and “science”

SNR

Skunkworks

Methodological Notes7. Transferability of the approach?

• Practical Examples» Cedar River, WA» Tillamook Bay Estuary, OR» Snohomish Basin, WA» Portland Harbor Superfund, OR» Alum Creek, OH» Many non-environmental contexts

• Experimental Approaches» Water Use Planning» Contaminated site cleanup» Wildlife management

SNR

Skunkworks

Sample References• Gregory, R. 2000. Using stakeholder values to make smarter environmental

decisions. Environment, 42: 34-44.

• Gregory, R., J. L. Arvai, and T. McDaniels. 2001. Value-focused thinking for environmental risk consultations. Research in Social Problems and Public Policy, 9: 249-275.

• Gregory, R. and K. Wellman. 2001. Bringing stakeholder values into environmental policy choices: A community-based estuary case study. Ecological Economics, 39: 37-52.

• Gregory, R. and L. Failing. 2002. Using decision analysis to encourage sound deliberation: Water use planning in British Columbia, Canada. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 21: 492-499.

• McDaniels, T., R. Gregory, and D. Fields. 1999. Democratizing risk management: Successful public involvement in local water management decisions. Risk Analysis, 19: 497-510.

SNR

Skunkworks

Major Practitioners

Bob Clemen, DukeRobin Gregory, UBC/Decision Research

Ralph Keeney, USCTim McDaniels, UBCLynne Maguire, Duke

Detlof von Winterfeldt, USCTrent Berry, Compass Resource ManagementLee Failing, Compass Resource ManagementDan Ohlsen, Compass Resource Management

Will Trousdale, EcoPlan InternationalJoseph Arvai, Ohio State/Decision Research

A structured decision approach for assessing the value of ecological systems and services

Documents

Transcript of A structured decision approach for assessing the value of ecological systems and services