A Spatial Study of Religion and Urbanization in China

Shuming BaoChina Data Center

University of Michigan

&

Xiaodong FuSchool of EconomicsRenmin University

19521962197219821992200220120

20

40

60

80

100Urban Rural

Buddhism1949-2004

Taoism1949-2004

Islam1949-2004

Christian1949-2004

Spatial Distribution and Trends of Religious Sites in China

Topics

I. Introduction

II. Methodology

III. Data

IV. Empirical Analysis

V. Summary and Discussion

Urban Expansion in China by Night Light

Shanghai 1990 Shanghai 2000 Shanghai 2008

Nanchang 2000 Nanchang 2005 Nanchang 2008

The Trends of Urban-Rural Population in China

1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Urban Rural

Religion and Urbanization Literature: Urbanization may have negative impact on religious development Test: Where are mostly dynamic changes in religious sites located: urban

and rural regions?

1850 1900 1950 1980 2000 20040

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000Buddhism in three different areas

Jiedao Town Xiang

1850 1900 1950 1980 2000 20040

10002000300040005000600070008000

Christian in three different areas

Jiedao Town Xiang

1850 1900 1950 1980 2000 20040

100020003000400050006000700080009000 Islam in three different areas

Jiedao Town Xiang

1850 1900 1950 1980 2000 20040

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600 Taoism in three different areas

Jiedao Town Xiang

II. Methodology

Classification of urban, rural and transitional areas

Structural analysis Test of spatial autocorrelation Space-Time Analysis

III. DataReligious Sites:- Original data source from 2004 Economic Census- Atlas of Religions in China (UMCDC):

- Buddhism- Taoism- Christianity- Muslim- others

Population Census:- Original data source from population Census (1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000)- China Population Census Data with GIS Maps (province, city, county and

townships)

Economic Census:- Original data source from business Census (1995, 2001, 2004)- China Economic Census Data with GIS Maps (province, city, county and ZIP) - Digital Atlas by Industries of China

Others:- Socioeconomic Statistics, Geography, Environment, ……

Defining Urban, Rural and Transitional Areas Urban Area: Non-agricultural population > 50% Transition Area: Non-agricultural population < 50% and Migration > 20% Rural Area: Non-agricultural population < 50% and Migration < 20%

IV. Empirical Analysis: Religious Development and Urbanization

% in Rural

% in Urban

Buddhism and Urbanization

Start-ups

Percentage by urban, rural and transition areas

Accumulation

Urban

Rural

Christianity and Urbanization

Start-ups

Percentage by urban, rural and transition areas

Accumulation

Urban

Rural

Islam and Urbanization

Start-ups

Percentage by urban, rural and transition areas

Accumulation

Urban

Rural

Taoism and Urbanization

Start-ups

Percentage by urban, rural and transition areas

Accumulation

Transition

Spatial Autocorrelation of Church Distribution by Provinces

n

i

n

ij

ij

n

i

n

ij

jiij

wS

xxxxw

dI2

))((

)(

The Christianity Development in Western China

Inner Mongolia

Ningxia

Xinjiang

Transition

Urban

Rural

Transition

Urban

Rural

Transition

Urban

Rural

The Christianity Development in Northeastern China

Liaoning

Heilongjiang

Jilin

Transition

Urban

Rural

Transition

Urban

Rural

Transition

Urban

Rural

The Christianity Development in Eastern China

Zhejiang

Shandong

Jiangsu

Transition

Urban

Rural

Transition

Urban

Rural

Transition

Urban

Rural

The Christianity Development in Central China

Hubei

Jiangxi

Hunan

Transition

Urban

Rural

Transition

Urban

Rural

Transition

Urban

Rural

The Christianity Development in Southern China

Guangdong

Guangxi

Yunnan

Transition

Urban

Rural

Transition

Urban

Rural

Transition

Urban

Rural

Summary and DiscussionsGrowth of religion in urban, rural and transition areas: All religions: keep increasing in all areas with mostly dynamic growth in rural

area Buddhism: Faster growth in urban area Christianity: Faster growth in rural area Islam: Balanced growth in urban and rural areas and not much changes in

transition area Taoism: Balanced growth in all areas

The growth of Christianity in different regions: Eastern: Balanced growth in all areas with majority in rural areas Southern: Faster growth in rural area Central: Faster growth in rural area with initial majority in urban area Northeastern: Faster growth in rural area Western: Majority are in urban area with faster growth in transition area

Discussion: Data are limited to registered religious sites. Data are based on the cross-sectional data, which don’t include those

disappeared religious sites. Results may be sensitive to how the urban and rural areas are defined.

Spatial Analysis with the Spatial Explorer of Religion

Reports on Religious Distribution and Urbanization

Reports on Religious Distribution and Urbanization

Religious Sites by Urban/Rural/Transitional Area & Province

Religious Sites by Jiedao/Town/Township & Province

Spatial Explorer of Religionhttp://chinadataonline.org/religionexplorer

PySAL StatGeo

Modeling

Religious Sites::- Buddhism- Taoism- Christianity- Muslim- others

Population Census Data

Economic Census Data

Historical Data

Reference Data

Changes in religious structure