1

A Shift Towards China? - How

Philippine Foreign Policy Detached

from Systemic and Domestic Pressures

Image From: www.japantimes.co.jp

Master Thesis 2018

By: Amanda Brinkløv Jensen, 52603 and Rêbin Ahmad, 52078

Supervisor: Gorm Rye Olsen

Character Count: 216,869

2

Special thanks to:

Ambassador Jan Top Christensen, of the Royal Danish Embassy to the

Philippines, for his support and guidance in Manila.

Jose Antonio Custodio, for his help with networking and translation of the

executive summary into Tagalog.

3

Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 5

Buod Ehekutibo .......................................................................................................................... 7

List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................ 10

1) Literature Review ................................................................................................................. 11

1.1) Defining a Small State ............................................................................................... 12

1.2) Lesser Powers’ Strategies .......................................................................................... 13

1.2.1) Bandwagoning ....................................................................................................... 14

1.2.2) Balancing and Non-balancing ................................................................................ 14

1.2.3) Hedging .................................................................................................................. 16

1.3) Future Research and Theoretical Outlooks ................................................................... 17

2) Problem Area ....................................................................................................................... 18

3) Methods ................................................................................................................................ 22

3.1) Choice of empirical data ............................................................................................... 22

3.2) Selection of Sources and its Consequences .................................................................. 23

3.3) Reflexivity ..................................................................................................................... 24

3.4) Philosophy of Social Sciences ...................................................................................... 32

4) Theory, Systemic and Domestic .......................................................................................... 33

4.1) Variables and Scope in International Studies ............................................................... 33

4.2) Structural Realism and its Relation to Neoclassical Realism ....................................... 33

4.3) Foreign Policy Analysis Approaches ............................................................................ 34

4.4) Pre-Theory, in Between Chairs ..................................................................................... 35

4.5) Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................. 35

4.5.1) Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell’s Intervening Variables....................................... 36

5) Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 42

5.1) Systemic Pressures and the Philippines’ Power Capabilities........................................ 42

5.1.1) China and the U.S. – Great Power Rivalry and a Changing Security Environment

in Southeast Asia .............................................................................................................. 42

5.1.2) Strategic Rivalry in the SCS .................................................................................. 45

5.1.3) Trump and the Asia-Pacific – What Now? ............................................................ 47

5.1.4) The U.S., the Philippines, and China - A Strategic Triangle ................................. 50

5.2) The Statesmen's Perception........................................................................................... 53

5.2.1) The Duterte Administration ....................................................................................... 54

5.2.2) Elite Opposition ..................................................................................................... 64

4

5.3) Strategic Culture ........................................................................................................... 73

5.3.1) The Philippines and the US’s Special Relationship – the Strategic proximity to the

Americans ......................................................................................................................... 74

5.3.2)The Aftermath of the Cold War .............................................................................. 76

5.3.3) Benigno Aquino III’s Resurrection of American-Filipino Security Alliance ........ 78

5.4) State-Society Relations ................................................................................................. 82

5.4.1) Class and Political Power ....................................................................................... 82

5.4.2) Public Opinion ....................................................................................................... 84

5.5) Domestic Institutions .................................................................................................... 86

5.5.1) The Armed Forces of the Philippines .................................................................... 87

5.5.2) The Parties.............................................................................................................. 92

5.5.3) Duterte and Institutional Control ........................................................................... 95

6) Endnote ................................................................................................................................ 97

7) Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 98

Sources ................................................................................................................................... 101

Interviews: .......................................................................................................................... 113

5

Executive Summary

After the election of Rodrigo Duterte in 2016 the Philippines have developed a markedly

different foreign policy rhetoric. The United States, as former colonial power, and current ally

are shunned and both China and Russia are approached. Duterte even went as far as to set

aside a ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in favor of Philippine claims over those

of China, in a case his predecessor had filed over the Chinese nine-dash line in the South

China Sea. Furthermore, Duterte proclaimed common military exercises with the U.S. would

end and the Philippines would look for new security partners. Yet the exercises continue, and

martial cooperation is expanded under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. At the

same time the economic benefits Duterte claimed China could bring, have failed to

materialize and China continues its military build-up in in the conflict West Philippine Sea.

Ultimately the Philippines are not responding as expected to current systemic pressures.

This thesis provides an analysis of the shift in the Philippines foreign policy from assertive

balancing under President Benigno Aquino, to accommodation/non-balancing under President

Duterte. The paradox behavior of the Philippines is discussed within a neoclassical realist

framework. It analyses systemic factors found within individual perceptions, the strategic

culture, state society relations, and domestic institutions. In order to achieve insight into the

elite perceptions, interviews have been conducted with important member of the Filipino

political elite and other relevant actors and experts on the topic.

The perceptions held by Duterte are generally shaped by his perceptions of the systemic

pressures in the region and negative interactions with the U.S.. Duterte believe the potential

danger of a Chinese annexation of Philippine territory, can no longer be contained with

American aid, but must be reduced by developing amiable ties. Yet others within the

government, e.g. defense secretary Delfin Lorenzana, belong to the opposite camp, earning

the Duterte government the potluck label. In order to achieve insight into the elite perceptions,

interviews have been conducted with important member of the Filipino political elite and

other relevant actors and experts on the topic.

6

The relative novelty of Duterte’s thinking in Manila becomes even clearer upon the

examination of the strategic culture. Generations of Filipino policy makers have assumed the

U.S. would shield the Philippines from external threats and the proximity of China is a threat.

The Filipino civil society also expresses this view in polls. Duterte’s ability to retain his

popularity, despite such misgivings, is linked to the low importance foreign policy, relative to

domestic politics. Furthermore, popular contention is limited by the dominant role of the

upper class, that is to a large degree attached to Duterte’s coalition.

The inability of Duterte to make good on statements vis a vis the military, and secretary

Lorenzana’s liberty to contradict the President, are linked to the institutional relations of the

presidency, Filipino parties, and the military. The presidency’s control of government funds

exercises strong influence on the parties, that maintain clientelist networks. The clientelist

networks play a key role in exercising social control and elections. The military on the other

hand has a historical tendency to get involved in politics, through coups, but higher ranking

military personal requires political approval for promotions. Thus, all key institutions are

mutually dependent. This results in coalitions, for protection and financial benefit, but does

not translate into elite agreement on foreign policy.

In conclusion the thesis finds the Philippine’s change in foreign policy is linked to domestic

variables. A lack of consensus on the foreign policy is found between Duterte and important

actors within the Filipino political elite and Filipino civil society. This creates a foreign policy

of non-balancing, which is the result of contradictory tendencies for both bandwagoning with

and balancing against China within the current government, and a domestic context that

permits them to coexist.

7

Buod Ehekutibo

Matapos ang halalan ni Rodrigo Duterte sa 2016, ang Pilipinas ay nakagawa ng isang

kapansin-pansin na kakaibang paglalahad ng polisiyang panlabas. Ang Estados Unidos, tulad

na dating kolonyal na kapangyarihan, at kasalukuyang alyado ay iniwasan at ang parehong

Tsina at Russia ay nilapitan. Inisangtabi ni Duterte ang desisyon ng Permanenteng Hukuman

ng Arbitrasyon na pabor sa Pilipinas laban sa Tsina, sa isang kaso na ang kanyang hinalinhan

ay isinampa sa siyam na dash line ng Tsina sa South China Sea. Bukod dito, ipinahayag ni

Duterte na ang mga pagsasanay ng hukbong sandatahan sa militar ng Estados Unidos ay

magwawakas at maghahanap ng mga bagong kasosyo sa seguridad. Gayunpaman ang mga

pagsasanay ay nagpapatuloy, at ang kooperasyon ng militar ay pinalawak sa ilalim ng

Enganced Defense Cooperation Agreement. Kasabay nito, hindi pa naisasatupad ang mga

pang-ekonomiyang benepisyo mula sa Tsinan a ipinagmalaki ni Duterte, at pinagpapatuloy ng

Tsina ang pagtatayo ng militar na istruktura sa West Philippine Sea. Sa huli ang Pilipinas ay

hindi tumutugon tulad ng inaasahan sa mga kasalukuyang sistemang panggigipit.

Ang tesis na ito ay nagbibigay ng pagsusuri sa paglilipat sa patakarang panlabas ng Pilipinas

mula sa assertive balancing sa ilalim ng Pangulong Aquino, tungo sa accommodation / non-

balancing sa ilalim ni Pangulong Duterte. Ang pag-uugali ng kabalintunaan ng Pilipinas ay

tinalakay sa loob ng neoclassical realist framework. Pinag-aaralan nito ang mga sistematikong

kadahilanan na natagpuan sa loob ng indibidwal na pananaw, ang estratehikong kultura,

relasyon sa lipunan ng estado, at mga institusyong lokal. Upang makamit ang pananaw ng

mga elitista, ang mga panayam ay isinasagawa sa mahalagang miyembro ng elitistang

pampulitikang Pilipino at iba pang kaugnay na mga aktor at eksperto sa paksa.

Ang mga pananaw na hawak ng Duterte ay naihubog sa pamamagitan ng kanyang mga

pananaw ng mga sistemang panggigipit sa rehiyon at mga negatibong pakikipag-ugnayan sa

US. Naniniwala si Duterte na ang potensyal na panganib ng isang Intsik na pagsasanib ng

teritoryo ng Pilipinas, ay hindi kakayanin o magagampanan ng mga Amerikano, at ito ay

mababawasan sa pamamagitan ng pagbuo ng magandang ugnayan. Ngunit ang iba sa loob ng

pamahalaan, halimbawa si Lorenzana na kalihim ng Department of National Defense, ay

mukhang hindio sang ayon dun at tuloy pwede ilarawan ang administrasyon Duterte bilang

isang potluck na deskripsyon. Upang makamit ang pananaw sa mga piling panlipunan, ang

8

mga panayam ay isinasagawa sa mahalagang miyembro ng elitistang pampulitikang Pilipino

at iba pang kaugnay na mga aktor at eksperto sa paksa.

Ang kaibahan ng pag-iisip ni Duterte sa Maynila ay nagiging mas malinaw sa pagsusuri ng

estratehikong kultura. Ipinagpalagay ng mga sunod sunod na henerasyon ng mga Pilipinong

tagabigay ng patakaran na ipagtatanggol ng Estados Unidos ang Pilipinas mula sa mga

panlabas na banta at ang kalapitan ng Tsina ay isang banta. Ang Filipino civil society ay

nagpapahayag din ng pananaw na ito sa mga botohan. Ang kakayahan ni Duterte na

panatilihin ang kanyang katanyagan, sa kabila ng mga pagdadalawang isip sa kanya ng mga

tao, ay nauugnay sa mababang kahalagahan sa patakarang panlabas, kumpara sa pulitika at

isyu sa loob lamang ng bansa. Karagdagan pa, ang diskurso ay limitado sa pamamagitan ng

dominanteng papel ng mas mataas na uri, na karamhian ay kasali sa koalisyon ni Duterte.

Ang kawalan ng kakayahan ni Duterte na tuparin ang mga pahayag niya ukol sa hukbong

sandatahan, at kalayaan ng kalihim ni Lorenzana upang salungatin ang Pangulo, ay

nakaugnay sa mga relasyon sa institusyon ng pagkapangulo, mga partidong Pilipino, at

hukbong sandatahan. Ang kontrol ng pangulo sa mga pondo ng pamahalaan ay may malakas

na impluwensya sa mga partido, at nagpapanatili ng mga network ng clientelist. Ang mga

network ng mga kliyente ay may mahalagang papel sa pagsasakatuparan ng panlipunang

kontrol at sa resulta ng mga halalan. Ang militar sa kabilang banda ay may makasaysayang

ugali na makilahok sa pulitika, sa pamamagitan ng mga coups, ngunit ang mas mataas na

ranggo ng militar na personal ay nangangailangan ng pag-apruba sa mga pulitiko para sa mga

promosyon. Kaya, ang lahat ng mahahalagang institusyon ay magkaugnay. Nagreresulta ito sa

mga koalisyon, para sa proteksyon at pinansiyal na benepisyo, ngunit hindi nagreresulta sa

kasunduan ng elitist sa patakarang panlabas.

Sa konklusyon nakikita ng thesis na ang pagbabago ng Pilipinas sa patakarang panlabas ay

nauugnay sa mga itinatawag na domestic variable. Ang kawalan ng pagkakaisa sa patakarang

panlabas ay matatagpuan sa pagitan ng Duterte at mga mahahalagang aktor sa loob ng

elitistang pampulitika ng Pilipino at lipunan sibil ng Pilipinas. Lumilikha ito ng mga

ugnayang panlabas na patakaran ng di-pagbabalanse, na kung saan ay ang resulta ng mga

9

magkasalungat na tendensya para sa parehong pakikisama at pagbabalanse laban sa Tsina sa

kasalukuyang gobyerno, at isang kontekstong panloob o domestic na nagpapahintulot sa

kanila na magkakasamang mabubuhay.

10

List of Abbreviations

AIIB - Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

AFP - Armed Forces of the Philippines

CAFTA - China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement

CMIM - Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization

CoC - Code of Conduct

EDCA - Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement

EEZ - Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone

FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FPA - foreign policy analysis

KBL - New Society Movement

LCMD - Lakas-Christian-Muslim Democrats

OBOR - ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative

PCA - Permanent Court of Arbitration

PDP - Partido Demokratiko Pilipino–Lakas ng Bayan (lit. Philippine Democratic Party–Power

of the Nation)

SCS - South Chinese Sea

TPP - Trans-Pacific Partnership

U.S. - United States

UNCLOS - United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

WPS - West Philippine Sea

WWII - World War II

11

1) Literature Review

“Given the Great Powers’ ability to make or break a state’s risk-mitigation efforts, an age-old

question for all small and militarily weak states is thus: how should it position itself vis-à-via

the Great Powers, in a way, that would allow it to maximize benefits while simultaneously

cushioning against any undesirable dangers from stronger powers? Should it choose to

balance, bandwagon or pursue something else?” (Kuik 2008: 164)

The literature on policy responses to systemic pressures differentiates strategies according to

the described states relative power. Currently the regional power balance in Southeast Asia is

undergoing a reconfiguration (Flockhart 2016; Zhao 2014; Buszynski 2012; Burgess 2016;

Lampton 2016; Murphy 2017; Lushenko and Hardy 2016; Friedberg 2015; Beeson and Li

2011; Ayson and Pardesi 2017; McDougall 2011; Bisley 2011; Goldstein 2007; Ross 2010).

China has in the recent past experienced rapid economic development and is adjusting its

martial capacity to reflect this newfound strength. A confrontation with the U.S. about

geopolitical dominance in the surrounding South China Sea has already started. The resulting

changes inevitably also concern smaller powers of the region (Goh 2005; 2016). The

following paragraphs review the academic literature on small state foreign policy responses in

general and in the region.

The review begins by discussing the definition of small powers. It continues by examining

lesser powers’ strategies and responses to a rising China. And ends in an outlook on potential

future research.

Small states are found to be defined through the analysis of their systemic role. They react to

developments rather than shape them (Keohane 1969; Maass 2009). The subsequent

discussion of said reactions, finds the literature on small state foreign policy in Southeast Asia

offers a very critical view of the traditional binary conception of balancing and

bandwagoning. Kuik, Fiori and Passeri, Goh, Liou and Hsu, and Oba suggest hedging may

offer a more accurate understanding of foreign policy in the ASEAN states, and especially in

the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore (2008 and 2016; 2015; 2005 and 2016;

2017; 2016). Yet, hedging is difficult to distinguish from nonspecific foreign policy and falls

12

within greater categories of “waiting for balancing”, accommodation, or various forms of

non-balancing (Goh 2005; Koga 2017; Lake 1996). The review finds non-balancing behavior

is caused by domestic factors, rather than systemic impulses (Schweller 2006; Lieber and

Alexander 2005).

1.1) Defining a Small State

Arguably the majority of states are small states, nonetheless a common definition of the term

is missing from the literature (Keohane 1969; Maass 2009). The following section presents an

overview of the various approaches. In 1969 Robert Keohane writes the multitude of

approaches is the result of purpose-built definitions, tailored to the needs of specific research.

Matthias Maas repeats Keohane’s observation 40 years later and points out the substantial

disagreement on what criteria can be used to define small states (2009: 65).

Keohane begins his discussion by drawing the simple distinction between small powers and

great powers. To Keohane the term small power cannot appropriately be defined relatively, as

in “...B is stronger than A but weaker than C.” (Keohane 1969: 292). Rothstein argues: “A

Small Power is a state which recognizes that it cannot obtain security primarily by use of its

own capabilities, and that it must rely fundamentally on the aid of other states, institutions,

processes, or developments…” (1968:29). According to Keohane this approach applies to the

majority of states and should be supplemented by categorization according to their systemic

role (1969: 294-295). Furthermore, leaders make policy decisions based on their perception of

systemic roles (Keohane 1969: 294-295). This element becomes important since the behavior

of states determine the nature of the international system and vice versa (See figure 1 p. 38).

Keohane proposes four categories of states: 1) ‘system-determining’ or great power, 2)

‘system-influencing’ or secondary power, 3) ‘system-affecting’ or middle power, and 4)

‘system-ineffectual’ or small power (1969: 295-296). Great powers are states shaping the

international system, they can form the poles of a system. The U.S. fall within this category.

Secondary powers influence the system, but without hope of being able to dominate. They are

able of determining their own place and nature within the state-system by forming alliances or

partnerships with other states, or by acting on a unitarily scale. Middle or ‘system-affecting’

states can only affect the state-system by a multilateral or institutional tactic. The small or

‘system-ineffectual’ state have very little chance of influencing the system affecting them.

13

They have the possibility of working in big groups with other small states, but there is a great

chance a divergence of interest between them will lead to a lack of results. In relation to small

states, it is central to acknowledge their foreign policy outcomes are merely adjustments to the

reality of the state system, not a rearrangement (Keohane 1969; Brinkløv 2017).

Since states in general are found in all kinds of forms and sizes, it becomes necessary to apply

distinctive conceptualizations when determining a state’s position within the international

system. This leads Maas to the question: Should there be only one definition of a small state

as all states are unique in their own way? (2009: 65-68). The great variety of definitions can

be understood as positive, since it brings flexibility to the understanding and analytical

possibilities of the small state. By some scholars this is seen as an advantage which they have

used to further their own research and definition (Maass 2009: 65-68; Brinkløv: 15).

Therefore, this approach and the conceptual flexibility should be considered when conducting

further research on small states.

Keohane’s aforementioned definitions are likewise important in relation to further research. In

the contemporary international system, U.S. dominance and unipolarity are weakening. The

U.S. and China are vital actors in this development and can therefore be defined as ‘system-

determining’ in the Southeast Asian region. The small states of Southeast Asia fall under

Keohane’s category of ‘system-ineffectual’ (1969: 296). But to really understand their

position in the international state system, it is essential to analyze them in relation to the

‘system-determining’ states. The element of relativity in size and power between small and

large states must be incorporated into the analyses of state responses to systemic pressures or

changes (Brinkløv 2017: 15).

1.2) Lesser Powers’ Strategies

There is a considerable body of research on the rise of China and reactions of states in

Southeast Asia (Kuik 2008; 2016; Rabena 2015; 2016b; 2017; Goh 2005; 2016; Fiori and

Passeri 2015). The literature is mainly focused on bandwagoning and balancing.

14

1.2.1) Bandwagoning

When a state: “...align itself strategically with the threatening power in order to limit the

threat, neutralize it, or profit from the distribution of power.” (Goh 2005: 3) it is considered to

bandwagon. It is a type of foreign policy behavior rooted in the accommodation of demands

made by the stronger power. Yet bandwagoning with a rising state offers the opportunity to

benefit from the change and the concomitant benefits or gains (Kang 2007; Waltz 1979; Walt

1987). The bandwagoning standpoint contains elements partly derived and revised from the

theory of hegemonic stability (See Gilpin 1981; Keohane 1984).

Scholars using this concept to explain Southeast Asian states’ strategy towards a rising China,

argue these states will bandwagon with China. They see China as taking a leading role in the

region mainly due to past historical experiences and a big power asymmetry. According to

Womack and Kang Southeast Asian states share a degree of culture and ideas with China.

This makes them more likely to perceive China as succeeding in securing its policies and

strong position in the future. Therefor bandwagoning with China creates a better scenario for

these states (Womack 2003; Kang 2003a; 2003b; 2007; Schweller 1994).

1.2.2) Balancing and Non-balancing

The concept of balancing is defined as “…the forging of countervailing strength against a

potentially hegemonic or threatening power…” (Goh 2005: 3). Structural realists and

neorealists typically expect states to respond by balancing against rising states. Balancing is

an attempt to reduce the difference in power (Ripsman, Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 140)1. This

can be done by external balancing through alliances and agreements, and internal balancing,

in the form of the strengthening of military forces (Ripsman, Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 140;

Goh 2005; Walt 1987; Waltz 1979). Balancing against potential threats is often viewed as

compulsion and “law of nature” in structural realist accounts (Schweller 2006: 4-5; Jerdén

2016). Ralf Emmers and Aaron Friedberg argue many of the Southeast Asian perceive China

1 Martial power for structural realists and threat (martial power, offensive capabilities, intent, proximity) for neorealists.

15

as a threat and are therefore balancing through their security cooperation with the United

States (2003; 2011).

However, this view of balancing as automatic adjustment is criticized because of its disregard

for the various obstacles a balancing policy faces (Schweller 2006; Jerdén 2016; Ripsman,

Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 146). Randall Schweller argues balancing occurs less frequently than

non-balancing and underbalancing (Schweller 2006). Furthermore, literature on balancing

states often describes why balancing occurs rather than why it does not occur (Jerdén

2016:22). Yet certain factors may increase the likelihood of balancing, these include: 1)

‘Situationally easily’ perceived threats, clear hostile behavior indicating grave danger; 2)

‘Experientially easily’ perceived threats, in societies that have often been attacked - especially

weak states; And 3) ‘Strategically easily’ perceived threats, such as a powerful and rising

state, even if they are not openly hostile (Klaus Knorr 1976 but taken from Schweller 2006:

40).

A failure to act when systemic pressures changes results in non- or under-balancing.

Schweller takes his point of departure in neoclassical realism and argues that states are not

unitary actors but divided domestically (2006). According to Schweller, states non-balancing

typically occurs: When elites are in disagreement on how to perceive systemic information;

When elites are in agreement there is a threat, but disagree on the appropriate measures;

When the elite consensus about the course of action is an alternative to balancing, such as

hedging (2006: 49). Schweller even argues non-balancing represents the status quo, and

explicit balancing reactions are not the rule (2006).

At the extreme end of the non-balancing scale, is accommodation of threatening nations.

Accommodating means at least partial agreement to the terms of the threatening nation.

However, accommodation is not always a sign of weakness, as grievances may be perceived

as legitimate, typically those of limited revisionist powers (Schweller 2006). Furthermore,

accommodating certain demands can be a step in integrating a state into status quo and

converting it into a defender of status quo. According to Schweller this is especially attractive

16

to small states confronted with rising powers. They have little relative power to lose by a shift

in hegemonic dominance and can afford to avoid conflict with a superior power (2006; 2008).

1.2.3) Hedging

Eva Goh argues the U.S., despite China's rise, still holds a dominant position and power in

Southeast Asia (2005; 2016). Hence some small states might find themselves struggling with

choosing between the two. By adopting a strategy of hedging, small states might benefit from

the ‘public goods’ provided by the U.S.. This could e.g. be the freedom of navigation and

overflight principle. At the same time, small states can also engage with a rising China to

secure e.g. economic benefits. By not choosing between the two powers, a lesser power can

expand their strategic options and maximizing benefits from both sides (Fiori and Passeri

2015; Zhao 2012; Kuik 2008; 2016).

According to the aforementioned theory discussed, if a state on the one hand views another

state as an immediate threat, it is highly likely to choose balancing as their strategy. Hence, its

strategic assets are mobilized for security. If a state, on the other hand, views a rising state as

a non-threat and a possible source of relief or profit expansion, it is likely to bandwagon. But

there are circumstances where the policymakers or leaders of a given state do not perceive any

imminent and clear threat. Or they might be conflicted over the tenor of the threat (Kuik 2008:

Brinkløv 2017). Kuik describes: “…[they] may view the embodiments of risk to be mere

versatile, multifaceted and uncertain.” (2008: 164). Therefore, hedging was introduced as a

strategic concept. Within much of the literature, hedging is argued to be the policy or strategy

applied by many Southeast Asian states after the Cold War and in response to the continuous

shift global power balance (Kuik 2018). Due to the uncertain regional order, and the

ambiguous role of great powers, the smaller Southeast Asian states can no longer afford to

develop too close or too distant a relationship with either China or the U.S. (Kuik 2018). This

leads them to hedge between them.

While both balancing and accommodation require commitment to a certain strategy and

partners, hedging offers less binding interactions. Hedging is a comparatively recent concept

in international studies and a commonly accepted definition has yet to emerge (Kuik 2008;

17

Koga 2017). It was first adopted by scholars, who argue the dichotomy of bandwagoning and

balancing falls short of explaining and predicting state behavior in post-cold-war Southeast

Asia (Goh 2005 and 2016; 2016; Fiori and Passeri 2015; Zhao 2012; Kuik 2008; 2016; Oba

2016). Cheng-Chwee Kuik argues hedging occupies the middle ground between Balancing

and bandwagoning (2016a: 502).

The term refers to the hedging of bets, as also found in the financial markets. A hedging

strategy entails engaging multiple potential partners and threats in economically and martially

beneficial interactions to avoid commitment to a single alignment position (Kuik 2008: 165;

Fiori, Passeri 2015; Zhao 2012). Kuik elaborates hedging is dependent on policymakers

viewing rising powers as non-threats (2008). Such a non-committal approach to foreign

relations may be difficult for states invested in preserving the status-quo (2006; 2008: 164;

2016). Hedging is linked to a flexible threat perception, that goes beyond the ultimate stakes

and commitments found in more ideologically charged perceptions of the international

systems.

1.3) Future Research and Theoretical Outlooks

The review has shown a developing trend to move away from the balancing-bandwagoning

dichotomy in the literature on Southeast Asian foreign policy. The trend is currently

expressed in the hedging literature which still remains within the systemic discussion

parameters of earlier accounts. Yet elements of balancing and bandwagoning are still visible,

because hedging is located in between the two (Kuik 2008). The alternative offered by the

neoclassical outlook expressed in Schweller’s non-balancing concept requires integration of

domestic variables. Thus, this review finds it necessary to further analyze the domestic

variables affecting the response to systemic pressures. Neoclassical realism reflects the need

to integrate domestic and systemic variables in a comprehensive analysis of foreign policy. It

can potentially add to the arguments developing in the rapidly evolving discussion on foreign

policy responses and the behavior of small states in Southeast Asia. The following section

reflects some of the distinctions between neoclassical realism and other approaches to the

study of international relations.

18

Ripsman, Taliaferro, and Lobell argue other major theories of international relations, namely

structural realism, liberalism, and constructivism fail to fully explain foreign policy, states’

strategies, or international politics (Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell 2016; Brinkløv 2017).

They argue the international system seldom gives a clear level of information on international

opportunities and threats. Therefor structural realism lacks a coherent full explanation. The

same is the case with Innenpolitik on its own. Neoliberal institutionalist theories and systemic

liberal theories essentially can be perceived as Innenpolitik since “…the state and, by

extension, the international institutions they construct ultimately rest upon the consent of the

governed.” (Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell 2016: 4). Liberalism and structural realism

ignores the function held by policymakers and political leaders. It lacks explanation of their

perception towards the domestic and systemic challenges or changes. Constructivism in

comparison focuses on perceptions of the individual actors in combination with background

and cultural upbringing. This theory is insufficient due to its downplay of the relative

distribution of material power capabilities (Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell 2016: 5).

Due to these elements, foreign policy or state behavior need to be analyzed by incorporating

components from both the systemic and the domestic level (Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell

2016: 3-4). Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell present neoclassical realism as the theory which

allows the domestic and systemic variable to interplay. It incorporates elements from each of

the mentioned theories and uses them to interpret the world of today – in their own words it

“…identifies consequential variables at several levels of analysis and demonstrates how they

can produce a range of outcomes at the levels of foreign policy, grant strategic adjustments,

international outcomes, and structural change…” (2016: 5). Hence this review finds it is

necessary to adopt a neoclassical realist theoretical lens when analyzing lesser’ powers policy

or strategy towards raising or powerful state.

2) Problem Area

The Philippines are an island nation located in a fast-developing Southeast Asia. The country

has experienced rapid economic growth in the last decade and has transitioned from an

agricultural economy to informal services (FAO; Philippine Statistics Authority 2017). The

19

Philippine territory in the South China Sea (SCS), referred to as the West Philippine Sea

(WPS) by the Philippines, offers the opportunity to enhance economic development by adding

revenue from oil, gas, fish, minerals and the proximity of important shipping routes (Rustandi

2016: 1: Brinkløv 2017: 8). Estimates suggest the SCS holds 190 trillion cubic feet of natural

gas and 11 billion barrels of oil (EIA 2013; Rustandi 2016). This economic potential of the

SCS fuels territorial conflicts in the region (Del Rosario 2017; Rustandi 2016). The position

as potential access point to East and South Asia and the colonial legacy, has made the

Philippines an important element of the United States Asian strategy. It can be argued the

Philippines are an element in the containment of China as potential rival hegemon

(Mearsheimer 2018). Freedom of navigation has emerged as a core American interest in the

area (Rustandi 2016). The Philippine claim to features within the WPS have been contested

by China since 1947, when the People’s Republic of China published the Nine-dash Line

(Annex 1).

During the Cold War U.S. troops stationed in the Philippines deterred active Chinese

contestation of the territories. However, when the Cold War ended negative aspects of the

terms of American presence became increasingly important. Hence, in 1991 the Philippine

Senate allowed the Military Base Agreement to expire (Chambers 2012:152). Already in 1994

clashes occurred with China at Mischief Reef and the Ramos government of the Philippines

(See Annex 3) adopted a balancing strategy based on cooperation with the United States.

Since then Chinese-Philippine relations have been described as ebbing and flowing despite

the territorial conflict (Zao 2012: 57). The Philippines have joined the Chinese led Asian

Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM)

and the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) (Liou Hsu 2017). All primarily

concerned with economic development. This gave China the possibility to react to rising

tension in the WPS with economic sanctions (Brinkløv 2017: 9).

The height of Philippine balancing efforts was reached under President Aquino (2010-2016)

(See Annex 3) after a standoff between Chinese and Philippine naval forces at Scarborough

Shoal in 2012 (Heydarian 2017). Aquino even compared China to Nazi Germany (Heydarian

2017). The failure to negotiate a solution prompted the Philippines to intensify the security

cooperation with the U.S. in an Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA)

20

(Congress of the Republic of the Philippines 2014). Furthermore, the Philippines filed a case

with Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague under the United Nations

Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) (See Annex 2). The verdict was spoken in

2016 and was favorable for the Philippines (Viray 2017b; Rappler 2016a). This result led

China to reformulate its stance to the ‘four sha’ claim (Viray 2017a). China's "four sha"

(Chinese for sand) claim covers sovereignty and maritime entitlements from four island

groups. The Pratas Islands, Macclesfield Bank area, Paracel Islands, and Spratly Islands

(Viray 2017a). Whether or not China has abandoned its ‘nine-dash-line’ claim is still

uncertain. However, China appears determined to expand its territorial control in the SCS and

the WPS and continues to construct military installations within the Philippine Exclusive

Economic Zone (EEZ) (Taffer 2014; Fravel 2010; Cheng & Paladini 2014; Del Rosario 2017;

Viray 2017b).

The long tradition for balancing ended with the election of Rodrigo Duterte in 2016. Duterte

stated he would chart a new course for the Philippines, independent from the U.S. (Heydarian

2017a: 220; Galang 2017; Romero 2017; Merez 2017). He has since maintained a

confrontational and distrustful rhetoric vis-à-vis the U.S. and simultaneously approached

China (Viray 2017c; Heydarian 2017a: 220). The Philippines set aside the ruling of the

Permanent Arbitration Court and ended the practice of joint exercises with the U.S. in the area

disputed by China. Duterte openly accommodates Chinese demands in the name of

pragmatism (Rabena 2016b). This behavior defied expectations, as it was commonly believed

the new government would expand the balancing effort should the Philippines win the

arbitration case (Burgess 2016: 126; Heydarian 2017: 220). In May 2018 Duterte even went

as far as to state Xi Jinping assured him China will protect the Philippines from external

threats and made it clear he believes the U.S.’s martial capabilities to be inferior to those of

China or Russia (Geducos 2018). Within the same month China moved naval forces and

civilian vessels claim another Philippine island (Viray 2018a; Viray 2018b). This puzzle led

to the point of departure for the investigation:

What has caused the shift from the balancing foreign policy towards China under President

Aquino, to a foreign policy of accommodation/non-balancing under President Duterte?

21

It is argued the current Philippine foreign policy, as a result of elite dissensus, contains several

contradictory elements. Thus, it can sustain neither Duterte’s vision of a Chinese ally nor the

traditional U.S.-supported balancing approach. Governments in the Philippines are shown to

suffer from a lack of programmatic party building, instead they form clientelist coalitions

around the presidential office. However, the institutional relations within the Philippines

prevent the president from exercising full control over the military. The apparent shift in

foreign policy is the result of President Duterte’s rhetoric and represents his take on foreign

policy. While, Duterte has managed to achieve limited accommodation of Chinese expansion,

it is argued the practice of the Philippine military in its relations with the U.S. remains largely

unchanged. The military leadership retains the traditional strategic culture and shows a strong

reliance on the U.S. for external security. It continues to promote balancing behavior. This

fragmentation of Philippine foreign policy into limited accommodation and limited balancing

results in general non-balancing. In the long term the Philippine non-balancing may prove to

be inadequate and allow China to strengthen its position in the WPS and may deteriorate

Philippine claims, upheld by the PCA in 2016.

22

3) Methods

The research takes an abductive approach. This section critically reflects on the choice of

methods and the selected data and sources. It does so to illustrate how it contributes to

answering the stated research question. Moreover, the ontological and epistemological

consideration taken during the research process are presented.

3.1) Choice of empirical data

The selection of sources for this thesis consist of a mixture of primary and secondary sources

(Bryman 2012: 13). As primary sources interviews, speeches, public statements, and

lectures/presentations have been collected from state elites, policy makers, and academic

specialists in order to gain a nuanced and in-depth understanding the researched area along

with an insight in the perceptions or misperceptions of the policy makers.

The secondary sources consist of academic literature, assorted policy papers, and descriptive

statistics. This has been supplemented with magazine and newspaper articles, mostly used to

show specific events as part of broader trends or to present different views. In the absence of

academic literature, newspaper articles have also been used as a supplement. The snowballing

method was applied in the data gathering process and a criteria of peer reviewed articles and

books have been applied (Bryman 2012: 471). Content analysis has been applied to the

collected empirical sources (Bryman 2012: 289). When applying this method, it is important

to be aware of possible preconceived ideas which might affect the conclusion of the research

question. Consequently, if not done properly, it can affect the reliability and validity of the

thesis. A previous internship project was conducted at the same time as the interviews for this

thesis. This project was a previous groundwork to determine the character of how the

Philippine policy makers understand their current foreign policy. It is used as a reference

point.

Triangulation as a technique is applied to validate the findings made in this thesis and to rule

out any biases. It has its offspring in the idea of providing different aspects or different lenses

of understanding to what is researched. Triangulation can be done on three levels: data-,

investigators-, or methodological research triangulation, or all three in combination. This

23

gives a coherent answer to the research question and hypotheses. When triangulating three

possible outcomes can occur. The data sources can turn out to be either inconsistent,

convergent, or contradictory (Mathison 1988: 13). On one hand the data and sources can vary

and create a void in the understanding, on the other hand it could be complementary and be in

consensus. Finally, it can also be in full contradiction and oppose each other. All of these

three outcomes contribute to the research area by providing a significant answer or puzzle

worth questioning.

This thesis combines the aforementioned three ways of triangulating in the process of

gathering sources to secure the most valid and generalizable findings. Two researchers

secured the possibility of an investigators triangulation which has enhanced and provided the

work with different perspectives and feedback (Mathison 1988: 14).

3.2) Selection of Sources and its Consequences

According to the theory selected for this thesis “Foreign policy choices are made by actual

political leaders and elites, and so it is their perceptions of relative power that matter” (Rose

1998: 147). Therefor interviews with members of the Philippine political elite is necessary to

understand the foreign policy outcome. Interviews with academic scholars has also been

conducted in order to obtain specialist knowledge on the researched topic. All interviewees

were aware of the purpose of the interview and offered anonymity. The interviews were semi-

structured allowing room for follow-up questions and creating space for further elaboration by

the interviewed person (Bryman 2012: 471) (See annex 4.). To the extend it was possible, this

thesis has used purposive sampling in the selection process of the interviewees (Bryman 2012:

419). It was not possible to get interviews with all important policy makers like e.g. Secretary

of Foreign Affairs, Alan Peter Cayetano and likewise the most significant, President Rodrigo

Duterte. The lack of interviews with these two main policy makers is mitigated by

supplementation with speeches and official statements they have made. However, public

statements may be restrained by factors that can be eliminated in an interview context. When

conducting an interview, the person being questions was given the option of speaking

anonymously, which leaves room for a more open opinion. In the interview with Presidential

Peace Advisor and close friend of President Duterte, Jesus Dureza, statements, speeches, and

actions of the president were discussed, giving a more nuanced and truthful picture of his

perceptions/misperceptions and take on foreign policy.

24

The selection of interviewees is based on the requirements of being close to foreign policy

decision-making or having special knowledge on Philippine foreign policy making. The

decision to leave out interviews with activist and civil society-leaders was done in order to

answer the research question in best correspondence with the theory. This can in some

circumstances leave a bias.

The interviews conducted encompass both views consistent with President Duterte’s, but also

opposed views. This gives a more nuanced picture of landscape in which the Philippine

foreign policy is created. Since the hypothesis is focused on the shift in foreign policy mainly

towards the conflict with China in the WPS, the interviewees where selected in the light of

having knowledge on this matter. By request of the participants, the transcriptions are not

included in this thesis and only interviewees who consented are named, to ensure they were

able to speak freely.

3.3) Reflexivity

There are two investigators in this thesis. Only one of the two has conducted the interviews

during an internship at the Danish Embassy in the Philippines. This has resulted in only her

being able to get the firsthand experience during the interviews, with reading body language

and signals. A disadvantage of this, might be differing interpretation of the interview-content

by the authors. However, this could also be an advantage, since the investigator being

presented with the interviews on a later stage in the research process, can approach them with

new eyes. Biases can arise from spending long time in a certain setting and with locals in the

Philippines who might have a different culture and understanding of the political environment

and the policy outcomes. As aforementioned triangulation was applied to the interviews, but

also between the investigators when working with analyzing the interviews.

All the interviews were performed in English. The interviewees had a high level of

professional English which leaves out any possible misunderstandings.

25

The following table is a systematic overview of the conducted interviews. The table also

serves as a reference point for the interviews used throughout the thesis. It is necessary to

explicitly indicate the following elements in table 1 and 2, since it has played a role in

retrieving data. An elaboration on data contamination is included further below in order to

illustrate the level of trust between the investigator and the participants. According to Glenn

Beamer it is important to ensure the validity of the date collected before starting the analysis

(2002: 93). Therefor an examination of the interviews is done in accordance with Beamers

categories of data contamination criteria (Beamer 2002: 93).

Table 1. Interview Reference Overview

Participant Position Investigator Reference Language

Professor

Aileen Baviera

Professor at University of

the Philippines Diliman,

Contemporary China

studies, China-Southeast

Asia relations, Asia-Pacific

security, Territorial and

maritime disputes, and

Regional integration

Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

Baviera 2017:

Brinkløv)

English

Justice

Antonio T.

Carpio

Justices of the Supreme

Court of the Philippines,

Lectures on the West

Philippine Sea and the

conflict. Was one of the

main actors in filing the

UNCLOS court case against

China.

Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

Carpio 2017:

Brinkløv)

English

26

Professor

Victor Andres

C. Manhit

Founder and Managing

Director of the Stratbase

Group and President of its

policy think-tank, Albert

del Rosario Institute for

Strategic and International

Studies or the ADRi.

Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

Manhit 2017:

Brinkløv)

English

Secretary

Jesus G.

Dureza

Presidential Peace Advisor

and close friend of

President Duterte

Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

Dureza 2017:

Brinkløv)

English

High ranking

member of the

Philippine

Government

Confidential

Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

High ranking

member of

government

2017:

Brinkløv)

English

Gary Alejano

and Francisco

A. Acedillo

Alejano is a representative

of the Magdalo Partylist

and former Marine Officer.

Currently reserve

Lieutenant Colonel in the

Philippines Marine Corps.

Acedillo is a former

representative of the

Magdalo Partylist and

former Air Force Pilot.

Currently law student.

Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

Alejano 2017:

Brinkløv)

(Interview

Acedillo 2017:

Brinkløv)

Interviewed

together but

referenced

separately

English

27

Professor Jay

L.

Batongbacal

Director of the UP

(University of the

Philippines) Institute for

Maritime Affairs and Law

of the Sea. He teaches

courses on Property,

Obligations & Contracts,

and Law of the Sea and

Natural Resources.

Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

Batongbacal

2017:

Brinkløv)

English

Jose A.

Custodio

Defense and Security

Analyst. Historian.

Institute for Policy, Strategy

and Developmental Studies

INC.

Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

Custodio

2017:

Brinkløv)

English

High ranking

U.S. Embassy

officer

Confidential Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

High ranking

U.S. Embassy

officer 2017:

Brinkløv)

English

Doctor Ralf

Emmers

Professor of International

Relations

Associate Dean, RSIS;

Head of Centre for

Multilateralism Studies

Security studies, the

international institutions in

the Asia Pacific, and the

security and international

politics of Southeast Asia.

Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

Emmers 2017:

Brinkløv)

English

28

Aaron J.

Rabena

Program Convenor at Asia-

Pacific Pathways to

Progress, Associate Fellow

at Philippine Council for

Foreign Relations (PCFR),

and Resident Fellow at

Ateneo Teehankee Center

for the Rule of Law.

Amanda

Brinkløv

Jensen

(Interview

Rabena 2017:

Brinkløv)

English

Table 2. Possible Interview Data Contamination Overview

Interviewees

Name

Identifying any

concealed

motives

Identifying any

possible factors

for censored

response

Identifying any

factors of

eagerness to

please

interviewer

Identifying any

factors that

influenced the

interview

process

Professor

Aileen

Baviera

Aileen Baviera

was herself at

the moment

doing rechearch

on Duterte as a

political leader.

Hence she

might not want

to give away too

much

information

before it has

been published.

The interview

room was quit

cold. This is very

common in

official buildings

and offices in the

Philippines. It

led to a couple of

interruptions to

the and regulate

the AC.

Justice

Antonio T.

Carpio

Might be

holding back his

opinion on

Duterte and the

political shift,

due to

consequences

from upsetting

the President.

Justices Carpio

offered a USB pin

with information

from his book on

the SCS,

hereunder

important maps.

The interview

was conducted at

his office. Music

was playing in

the background

over general

speakers through

the whole

interview

making it

29

difficult

sometimes to

focus on what

was being said.

Professor

Victor

Andres C.

Manhit

To further good

relations

between the

Danish Embassy

in Manila and

the

ADR/Stratbase

institute.

Might be

holding back

due to

consequences

from upsetting

President

Duterte.

The interviewee

offered the

possibility of

publishing with

the

ADR/Stratebase

institute due to

importance of

rechearch. Also

quit an amount of

previous

published material

from the institute

was given out.

Secretary

Jesus G.

Dureza

He is close

friends with

Duterte, and it is

in his interests to

make the

President and

the concomitant

policies look

good.

Might be

holding back on

his opinion, due

to consequences

from upsetting

President

Duterte, his own

position within

government,

and his personal

friendship with

Duterte

Complimented the

interviewer on her

looks and

engagement in the

Philippines

politics.

Before the

interview, the

interviewer was

interview by the

staff working for

Dureza. Is was

about her

background,

what the

interviews was

going to be used

for, and what

kind of question

would be asked.

Pictures was also

taken of the

interviewer and

interviewee as a

souvenir. This is

custom in the

Philippines.

High

ranking

member of

the

Philippine

Government

The interviewee

was very

interested in

who else had

been

interviewed.

The interview

was conducted

in a hotel cafe.

Therefor it

when coffee

was served the

interview has to

stop so no one

The interviewer

was invited to

come and see the

presidential

palace,

Malacañang.

The interviewee

chose the

location at a

fancy hotel cafe.

Despite private

placement many

interruptions

30

else would

listen on what

the meeting was

about. The

interviewee was

accompanied by

a secretary

which might

also influence

the answers.

happened by the

staff.

Gary

Alejano

Part of the

political

opposition

towards Duterte

with in the

government.

Might be

holding back

due to

consequences

from upsetting

President

Duterte

The interview

was conducted

over lunch

making it more

of an

conversation.

The interview

was conducted at

the same time as

that of Francisco

A. Acedillo. Jose

Custodio was

also present,

since he was the

one introducing

the interviewer

and

interviewee.

Francisco A.

Acedillo

Might be

holding back

due to

consequences

from upsetting

President

Duterte

The interview

was conducted

over lunch

making it more

of a

conversation.

The interview

was conducted at

the same time as

that of Gary

Alejano. Jose

Custodio was

also present,

since he was the

one introducing

the interviewer

and interviewee.

31

Professor

Jay L.

Batongbacal

Jose A.

Custodio

The interviewee

was very

interested in

who else had

been

interviewed.

Might be

holding back

due to

consequences

from upsetting

or getting on the

wrong side of

President

Duterte

Mentioned other

relevant people to

interview, who

shared the same

opinions has he

did.

The interview

was combined

with a tour of the

museum where

the interviewee

works.

High

ranking U.S.

Embassy

officer

Interested in

what the

interviewer had

found in her

research so fare

in relation to the

U.S. and the

Philippines

relations. (Who

of the

interviewed

from

government had

said what).

When asked

more

specifically

about the U.S.

strategy towards

the Philippine

the question was

avoided and

waugely

answered.

The interview

was conducted in

a restaurant with

a lot of things

going on in the

background.

Doctor Ralf

Emmers

The interview

was conducted

over the phone.

There for body

language and

expressions

could not be

taken into

account.

Aaron J.

Rabena

The interviewee

was very

interested in

who else had

been

interviewed.

And if his

opinions was in

line with the

others.

Might be

holding back

due to

consequences

from upsetting

President

Duterte

Seemed reluctant

to answer the

question correct

or so they could

be useful for the

research.

The interview

was conducted in

a cafe. There

was a lot of

noise in the

background.

32

There were no noteworthy observations in the blank fields. Most of the interviews went along

without hurdles or remarkable considerations. Some interviewees wanted to be completely

anonymous and where quite worried about their job and safety, if they were to speak

truthfully and in their own opinion. Due to this, is was necessary to create a setting where the

person being interview would feel safe and comfortable. They were reassured through the

investigator’s connection with the Danish Embassy, that everything would be confidential and

used with respect for their position. Most of the interviews where only a possibility because of

the investigator working at the Embassy. The interviews were reached through the help of the

Danish Ambassador’s connections or through networking at top multilateral meetings on the

South China Sea conflict and maritime disputes. Some of the connection were also made

through the 31th ASEAN summit in Manila. Bryman’s snowballing method was used in

relations to finding interesting relevant people to interview (2012: 471). All interviews

conducted would end with a question on anybody else, who could be interesting to talk with.

This created a fast overview of the most important players and experts in relations to the

foreign policy making in the Philippines.

An interview guide, consisting of 18 questions (See Annex 4) was provided upon request

before the interview. In most cases, there was no demand for previo viewing the questions.

Not all of the interview questions were asked every time. Sometimes due to the interviewee

answering the question before it was asked. Other times the flow of the interview made

certain questions irrelevant to ask. This has been found satisfactory since the questionnaire

was intended as guiding framework. It should be mentioned, that even though not all

questions were, the interviews conducted all touched upon the same topics.

3.4) Philosophy of Social Sciences

The ontological and epistemological stance of this thesis derives from a structuralist account

due to the selection of theory. Interests and security are the prevailing subject of state

encounters, interactions, and creations of a state’s foreign policy. The neoclassical realist

position, due to its focus on state interests, entails elements of soft constructivism. When

analyzing a states’ perception of its relative material power capabilities and systemic

pressures, perceptions or misperceptions of other international states and state leaders are

vital. Emphasis is placed on the statesmen’s self-constructed truth.

33

4) Theory, Systemic and Domestic

4.1) Variables and Scope in International Studies

The following section presents and reflect upon theory used, and how it is applied to the

analysis. The choice of theory is also reflected in the analysis, which looks into the external

and internal variables affecting the Philippine foreign policy in general and how it further has

implications on the issue in the WPS. The findings are discussed and concluded upon.

Theories of foreign policy are meant to open avenues of understanding for foreign policy

decisions and their causal background (Rose 1998: 145). However, as other tools they are

limited to certain functions and therefore illuminate and uncover certain aspects of

international processes, rather than a comprehensive picture of the truth (Rosenau 1984: 247;

Rose 1998: 145, Stavridis, Hill 1996: 21). Thus, the topic of inquiry must be deliberately

limited to an extent, which allows a consistent narrative to unfold, although the ideal degree

of parsimonious simplification is subject to debate.

The following chapter introduces the predecessors2 of neoclassical realism and argues it

should be understood as an attempt to reconcile the demands of systemic and domestic

approaches to international studies theory. Subsequently a neoclassical realist theoretical

framework is introduced.

4.2) Structural Realism and its Relation to Neoclassical Realism

Early neoclassical realism was as much the ad-hoc attempt to counter the dead corners of

structural realism, as it may have been an independent school of thought (Ripsman,

Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 25, 33). The systemic determinism of structural realism long

dominated the field of international relations (Rose 1998: 144). Neorealists propagate a

notably restrained understanding of policy processes, based on the broad strokes of global

2 This should not be understood to mean theories are obsolete or abandoned, merely indicate their partial adoption by

neoclassical realists.

34

power politics, to promote a parsimonious outlook (Rose 1998: 145). The essential driving

force of international politics in a structural realist understanding is the struggle between

established/satisfied- and rising/dissatisfied powers (Schweller 2006: 27). In this effort to

maintain or upset current power dynamics, states are guided by systemic pressures and

relative power, focused on martial capabilities (Mearsheimer 2018).

Akin to other forms of realist theory, structural realism assumes the international system is

anarchic, and state activity guided by the struggle to survive3 (Dunne and Schmidt 2008: 92).

John Mearsheimer, whose work on structural realism has achieved seminal status, emphasizes

the importance of the stringent adherence to limited variables and parsimony, if theory is to

fulfil its purpose and is strongly opposed to the ideas of neoclassical realists (2018).

Neorealist theorists tend to focus on the discussion of global power distributions and their

consequences on a systemic level, rather than the foreign policy challenges of individual

states (Rose 1998). This thinking leads to a preference for the discussion of polarity and

stability, resulting in inadequate consideration of the actual foreign policy processes

(Ripsman, Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 18). It is precisely this gap in structural realist thinking

neoclassical realist theory seeks to remove.

4.3) Foreign Policy Analysis Approaches

On the opposite end of the spectrum from structural realist theory, systemic determinism is

the domestic determinism of theories of Innenpolitik (Rose 1998: 146; Ripsman, Taliaferro,

Lobell 2016). Innenpolitik theories are based on the idea that domestic actors, mediated by

domestic logics, are responsible for foreign policy. It is prominently featured in foreign policy

analysis (FPA). FPA variables have strongly influenced the intervening variables discussed by

neoclassical realists. Christopher Hill lists six variables constituting the ‘building blocks’ of

FPA: 1) domestic constitutional frameworks of the decision-making system, 2) the political

culture pervasive in society, 3) the beliefs of decision makers and their relevance for decision

3 To avoid harm may be a more appropriate formulation, considering there have been few incidents of the dismantling of

states in the post-World War II system, with the notable exception of the consequences of the dissolution of the USSR.

35

making, 4) the psychology of individual decision maker, 5) group dynamics of policy making,

and 6) information processing characteristics of a system (1996: 22-29).

4.4) Pre-Theory, in Between Chairs

There is a long tradition of attempts to integrate domestic and systemic explanations for

foreign policy at the expense of parsimony. Both Rosenau and Rose argue parsimony may

distance theory from the empirical realities (1984: 250; 1998). Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell

illustrate how potential misperceptions of systemic stimuli by involved actors can easily lead

to failure of structural realist analysis (2016: 20-21). One early proponent of more general and

empirically oriented international studies can be found in James Rosenau’s work. His pre-

theory and theories was first published in 1964. It laid out five categories of causal

explanations of foreign policy, including systemic, governmental and societal, and organizes

them by importance (Haas 1964). 20 years later he criticizes the methods common in his

contemporary study of foreign policy for imitation of the natural sciences and cautions against

the overemphasis of parsimony in theory (Rosenau 1984: 251-253).

4.5) Theoretical Framework

The criticism levied at realist scholarship for the distance between theory and empirically

observable foreign policy processes did not remain unheard. Structural realists generally

acknowledge there are cases where systemic determinism finds no purchase in establishing

causality and scholars must refer to Innenpolitik (Mearsheimer 2018). According to John

Mearsheimer the foreign policy of the Duterte regime shows such properties (2018).

However, Innenpolitik offers unit level explanations, yet may not offer satisfactory causality

for policy differences between internally similar states, which can be observed (Rose 1998:

146). Neoclassical realists take the next step by adding theories of Innenpolitik as intervening

variables to their fundament of realism. Initially variables were added to a realist point of

departure in an ad-hoc manner (Ripsman, Taliaferro, Lobell 2016). However, the great variety

of possibly relevant Innenpolitik theories, which adds the domestic dimensions of foreign

policy, comes at the price of theoretical coherence. Even without the question of coherence,

certain variables must be selected. Two methods can be applied to solve this problem. 1) As

with more traditional neoclassical realist scholarship, the selection of intervening variables

can be undertaken based on case-specific factors, or 2) by developing a theoretical framework

36

limited to selected variables beforehand. Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell refer to approach 1)

as types I and II of neoclassical realism and approach 2) as type III neoclassical realism

(2016). This thesis follows an iterative path in the formation of the intervening variables. The

analysis has its point of departure in Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell’s sketch proposal for a

type III neoclassical realist model and specifying it to suit the institutional structures of the

Philippines.

Figure 1. Brinkløv 2017

4.5.1) Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell’s Intervening Variables

The following section presents Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell’s foreign policy formulation

system (see Figure 1.) (2016). It starts out with an overview of the process and then launches

into a discussion of the concrete objects of empirical analysis and variables discussed under

each ordering category.

Systemic stimuli caused by change in the international surroundings of a state, is used as

independent variable. It kicks off the policy making process. Within the policy making

process Ripsman et al identify three junctures at which intervening variables become relevant:

1) perception, 2) decision making, and 3) policy implementation.

37

1) Perception refers to the foreign policy actors’ understanding of the systemic situation.

Neoclassical realists recognized this concern of classical realists (Ripsman, Taliaferro,

Lobell 2016: 20). As a result, arguments about beliefs and expectations, which form

leadership images and strategic culture become relevant here.

2) Decision making is the process of formulating a response to perceived systemic

stimuli. It is here Ripsman et al place variables constraining or encouraging certain

policy options (2016: 20). This includes the strategic culture, state-society relations

and domestic institutions all as domestic restraints on policy options.

3) Policy implementation can be distorting the intended policy, because of the limitations

found in state-society relations and domestic institution. According to Christopher Hill

an understanding of the implementation is central to the analysis of foreign policy as

outcomes may markedly differ from intentions (2003: 51).

The following paragraphs discuss the four intervening variable clusters, which are analyzed

during the three stages of the foreign policy process.

Leadership Images

The idea that individuals matter to foreign policy outcomes is perhaps as old as political

thinking itself. Steles, temples, prophets, and historians committed, rulers and their deeds,

famous and infamous, to memory. The general debate on the role of individuals is one of

agency versus structure. Neoclassical realists view agency as meaningful to the policy process

within the constraints of systemic and domestic structures (Rose 1998: 157-158; Tang 2009)4.

Neoclassical realist considers individuals in their role as cogs, which may upset the

transmission of systemic impulses to policy outcomes. As Friedberg points out, there is a

relation of perceptions with reality one way and policy the other way, but in neither case, it is

determinative (1988). The following paragraphs give an overview of empirical factors and

their theoretical underpinnings, that form what Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell call images or

perceptions guiding individual actors (2016: 62). The advantage of the term ‘leadership

images’ lies chiefly in its overarching nature. There are a great number of concepts in the

study of psychological factors in foreign policy making and they have overlapping and

4 Both articles are reviews of neoclassical realist literature.

38

varying contents. Thus, referring to leadership images allows the later analysis to benefit from

the greater variety of questions posed by looking at multiple definitions and concepts.

Many of the constituent components of leadership images in neoclassical realism have long

been part of FPA approaches. In their treatment, Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell begin by

making references to psychological factors such as personality and personal beliefs, core

values, operational codes, and group thinking (2016: 62)5. in Christopher Hills FPA system.).

Personal beliefs may form the cognitive framework within which decision makers view and

interpret the world. Christopher Hill poses two questions related to belief systems, that allow

useful conclusions about leadership images: 1) What view of international politics does a

belief system propagate? Fascism is a case where the implications become easily visible. 2)

To what degree is the belief-system relevant or accorded relevance by the individual in the

daily decision-making process? (1996: 23). In Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell’s account core

values act as cognitive filters reflecting the actor’s experiences, and influence how they

process information (2016: 62).

Operational codes are defined relatively similar to leadership images and comprise

philosophical and instrumental beliefs on politics, and images of oneself and others and are

rarely changed (2016: 64). According to Hill, this is because of the need for cognitive

consistency and may lead to cognitive dissonance, that is the bending of perceived realities to

one’s imaginations (1996: 25). Schweller connects these cognitive distortions to motivated

bias, that can gravely distort the perception of systemic stimuli (2008: 39). Motivated bias can

cause great danger if threat perception is distorted, especially in volatile situations. Group

thinking on the other hand inches in on strategic culture. Therefore, it is difficult for

individuals to argue in opposition to the majority in a group they belong to (Stavridis and Hill

1996: 26-27).

5 Corresponding to variables 2), 3), 4) and 5).

39

Strategic Culture

Neoclassical realist theory perceives the role of strategic culture in a manner similar to

operational codes described above, albeit on a collective level. Strategic culture can be

organizational, in other words it is part of the collective thinking expected within a

bureaucracy, or ideas accepted within general society (Ripsman, Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 65-

67). According to Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell it is constituted by beliefs, norms and

assumptions adapted through socialization and institutionalized norms, creating a socially

acceptable horizon of possible policies (2016: 67). Stelios Stavridis and Christopher Hill

adopt the concept of political culture as equivalent FPA variable. They point to the

importance of history and its societal reception to the development of strategic culture and

elite socialization (Stavridis and Hill 1996: 22).

State-Society Relations

State-society relations are necessarily a defining element in many grand theories across the

social sciences from political economy to development studies. In Marx’s “Das Kapital” the

state is treated as institutionalized class- and thereby societal relations (Marx 2009). The good

governance school on the other hand suggests the state as vehicle of societal goals. It has long

been recognized as both goal and means for development in international institutions, such as

the World Bank. Early concerns about state- society relations among neoclassical realists have

been linked to the resource mobilization capacity as component in attempts to gauge relative

strength among states (Rose 1998).

Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell define four major areas of state-society relations acting as

composite intervening variables in the foreign policy process (2016: 70-75):

1) The ability of foreign policy actors to insulate the foreign policy process from society

at large and domestic concerns in general. In Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell’s

account this is largely dependent on domestic institutional structures discussed as next

intervening variable (2016: 71).

2) The inability to insulate the foreign policy process may result in considerable social

pressure due to the second component variable, state-society discord or distrust. A

state distrusted by key societal groups may be unable to extract necessary resources

for certain policies, possibly even encounter widespread resistance if social groups

40

perceive state demand as overreach (Ripsman, Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 71-72).

However, it may also be argued leadership images are a relevant factor when actors

actively ignore popular or institutional pressure due to personal preferences or are able

to relieve pressure through populist rhetoric and other tools.

3) Because societies are fragmented factors, such as class, ethnic identity, belief groups

and economic sectors, cross-sectionality is a prevalent phenomenon and allows for a

wide variety of shifts in social coalitions opposing or supporting policies and their

implementation. Thus, the dynamics of coalition politics are key to understanding

foreign policy preferences (Ripsman, Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 72-73).

4) It is clear, that state-society relations are complex and difficult to causally map. Yet

the armed forces can potentially change any such arrangement by virtue of their

potential power projection capability in favor of social coalitions over others. The

government and state apparatus over society at large or even its own parochial

interests (Ripsman, Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 73). The understood willingness of

military actors to comply with foreign policy actors’ demands also influences the

range of actions these will consider (Ripsman, Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 74).

The importance of these intervening variables is to a large degree dependent on the degree of

fragmentation in society and the state and the salience of the fragmentation as crystallization

lines for potential conflicts of interest. Randall Schweller argues a high degree of

fragmentation is associated with a slow foreign policy process, which tends towards the

lowest common denominator (2006). However, Schweller’s argument is difficult to extend to

situations where fragmentation leads to the pursuit of opposing foreign policy strategies by

different sections of society. This may even result in foreign intervention on behalf of one

party (2006). Particularly in polarized political environments, e.g. when confident communist

factions exist in a hostile environment, confrontation may entirely replace compromise. In

view of these composite variables domestic institutions appear as important actors in foreign

policy processes. The following section discusses their role as intervening variable in

neoclassical realist theory.

Domestic Institutions

The term institution covers a wide range of distinct groups of actors and phenomena. In this

case the focus is solely on institutions relevant to foreign policy outcomes, disregarding

differences in the form of institution.

41

According to Ripsman, Taliaferro, and Lobell institutional arrangements hem in the range of

domestic policy competition and limit the legitimate participation in and outcomes of the

process (2016). The primary actor in this approach to the analysis of domestic institutions as

intervening variable, is the executive branch of government. Therefore, it is important to

consider the party landscape and constitutional frameworks surrounding executive action

(Ripsman, Taliaferro, Lobell 2016: 76).

Bureaucratic institutions can develop agendas of their own. Administrative process models

attempt to capture processes, that limit the variety of options presented to the decision makers

by lower level functionaries and bureaucrats. Stavridis and Hill describe the ideational

momentum once an initial analysis is conducted within administrations as potential blinders in

relation to alternative policy options (1996: 31). A similar process, termed incrementalism,

may occur when a chain of lower level agents processes matters exclusively within the narrow

parameters of their purview and thereby inadvertently limit the actual discretion of their

superiors step by step (Stavridis and Hill 1996: 32). However, the bureaucratic influence on

the policy outcome can also be understood within the framework of bureaucratic politics. In

this case bureaucracies attempt to leverage policy influence in order to expand over rival

sections of the bureaucracy (Stavridis and Hill 1996: 32).

42

5) Analysis The theory chapter shows complex intervening variables may result in foreign policy

outcomes beyond a unidimensional systemic analysis. The thesis posits the counter-intuitive

contradictions in foreign policy rhetoric displayed by the current Philippine government, are

the result of the intervening variables and remain within the expected responses to the

systemic insecurities the Philippine state faces. To form the argument, the intervening

variables are analyzed in separate sections. The following paragraphs discuss the systemic

stimuli and geopolitical context, that constitutes the point of departure for the remainder of the

analysis.

5.1) Systemic Pressures and the Philippines’ Power Capabilities

According to Schweller systemic stimuli typically originate when the balance of power

changes and threatens the status quo (2006). Many countries in East and Southeast Asia have

experienced rapid expansionary transformation of their productive capabilities in the recent

past. Yet it is the economic expansion of China and the concurrent need to redefine the

country’s role, which provides the defining systemic stimuli in the region’s security politics.

Chinese foreign policy has been defined by attempts to create buffers against unrestrained

U.S. access and resulted in assertive territorial claims in the SCS and WPS (Zhao 2015; Yu

2017; M2 Press Wire 2000). This section starts out with a discussion of great power rivalry

between China and the U.S., and how it is affecting the Southeast Asia security environment

(see Annex 7 for an overview). Specifically, it looks into the developing bipolarity and

strategic rivalry in the SCS, and the shift in presidency from Barack Obama to Donald Trump.

Furthermore, it examines the Philippines power capabilities and its relationship with the two

great powers. There is a great uncertainty on how the rivalry between China and the U.S. will

play out. This uncertainty leaves room for Philippine policymakers to interpret the signals and

actions from the two powers according to their perceptions. Furthermore, it is found the

Philippines are caught in a strategic triangle with the U.S. and China.

5.1.1) China and the U.S. – Great Power Rivalry and a Changing Security Environment in

Southeast Asia

Within much of the academic literature on international relations there seems to be an

agreement, that the international system is in a state of flux, and the post-World War II liberal

international order in peril (Flockhart 2016; Zhao 2015; Buszynski 2012; Burgess 2016;

43

Lampton 2016; Murphy 2017; Lushenko and Hardy 2016; Friedberg 2015; Beeson and Li

2012; Ayson and Pardesi 2017; McDougall 2012; Bisley 2011; Goldstein 2007; Ross 2006).

Global power is shifting as new powers rise and the formerly dominant decline or re-assert

themselves. Changes within demographics, technologies, political structures, resources,

economics, and the environment increase the urgency of the question about stability of the

existing order. This change is placing the existing international order and its institutions under

pressure (Flockhart 2016: 3-4). The strategic triangle between China, the Philippines, and the

U.S. shows the Philippines have been struggling to find their position in the post-Cold War

systemic environment. The Philippines have been going ‘hot and cold’ on respectively the

U.S. and China.

The U.S., as present hegemon, are the main sponsor of the current order and China is

positioned/ predisposed to be the main challenger (Flockhart 2016). This builds upon the

argument, when a rising power increases their material capabilities, hereunder economically,

it is natural to also increase military power capabilities6. This has been the case for China.

China has risen to be the world’s second largest economy, with $11 trillion, or 14.8% of the

world economy compared to the U.S. with $18 trillion, representing a quarter share of the

global economy (24.3%) (World Economic Forum 2017). In addition, in 2015 China became

the world’s largest goods trader illustrating a major economic power (Lampton 2016: 112). In

step with its economic growth China has expanded, professionalized, and modernized its

military capabilities. It has increased its defense spending by double-digit percentages since

1989, building up its naval power by deploying its first aircraft carrier and developing new

classes of ships, submarines, frigates, and destroyers (GFP 2018; Buszynski 2012; Lushenko

and Hardy 2016).

With its newfound economic and military power capabilities, China has also become more

politically active in its neighborhood engaging in the Six Party Talks, taking a leading role in

the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat, attending the ASEAN regional forum, developing the

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in contrast to the American-led World Bank,

6 Military power rests on economic strength, hence economic strength must come first (Flockhart 2016: 6).

44

and the ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) initiative (Lushenko and Hardy 2016: 7; Yu 2017:

353).

Under President Xi Jinping, China’s foreign policy has changed from the previous ‘Keeping a

low profile’ to the ‘Striving for achievement’ policy (Chang-Liao 2016; Lampton 2016: 114).

Hong Yu argues the OBOR initiative is the centerpiece of this new more assertive foreign

policy and is to be perceived as a reflection of China’s ascendance in the global arena,

politically, economically, and strategically (2017: 353). The same is true about the AIIB

which has given China the opportunity to be in the center of geo-economics and geopolitics in

Southeast Asia. The AIIB and OBOR is a possible game changer of the economic and

political landscape and a challenge to U.S. primacy in the region (Yu 2017; Lushenko and

Hardy 2016). Paul Lushenko and John Hardy furthers this argument by stating: “China’s

incremental revisionism and expanding policy interest, particularly in the South China Sea,

have fueled concerns that the PRC is or will soon be in a position to begin circumscribing

America’s regional role and changing the existing power structure in East Asia and perhaps

beyond.“ (2016: 7). Their perception presented here, regarding power transition, is important

since it links general assumptions concerning security implications of rising powers to

specific circumstances and policy responses.

Lushenko and Hardy’s argument is important in order to understand the ground premise of the

strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China. For seven decades, the U.S. had undisputed

supremacy in the SCS. They have promoted the principle of freedom of navigation, secured

free seas and open skies. From the 1970s the U.S. also led the promotion of globalization, free

market economies, and its accompanied benefits to many states in the region (Burgess 2016:

111; Ayson and Pardesi 2017). However, some question U.S. leadership or argue the US’s

period of dominance and leadership is coming to an end (Interview Baviera 2017: Brinkløv;

Interview Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv; Burgess 2016). China aims to challenge the status quo

and form a bipolar balance of power in the region (Burgess 2016: 111-112). The U.S.

response towards China has not always been clearly formulated. There has been a great

uncertainty in how to handle China which resulted in the U.S. important economic links to

China after having moved much low productivity manufacturing there (Roach 2015). In the

process the U.S. understanding of China has gone from a developing economy to a rising

power. (Lampton 2016: 116).

45

The newfound understanding of China resulted in President Barack Obama's ‘Pivot to Asia’

or ‘Rebalancing to Asia’, which was an attempt to secure continued hegemony in the region

through a mixture of restraint and cooperative engagement (Löfflmann 2016: 92). The key

goals were to secure “...a stable security environment and a regional order rooted in economic

openness, peaceful resolutions of dispute, and respect for universal rights and freedoms.”

(Donilon 2013). However, Obama’s rebalance showed a fundamental dilemma. Should the

U.S. increase its engagement with its allies and partners in the region at the risk of fueling

political, economic and military completion with China (Löfflmann 2016: 92). Georg

Löfflmann argues the U.S. strategy of cooperative engagement with allies and partners in the

Asia-pacific region has indeed fueled Chinese fear of American containment and a prevention

of their rise. This resulted in China pursuing geopolitical and geo-economic counter-measures

against U.S. hegemony in the region risking a growing security dilemma (Löfflmann 2016:

105). China and the U.S. is clashing on two conflicting visions of hegemony and regional

preeminence creating a growing mistrust between the two powers. This clash becomes

especially visible in the territorial disputes in the SCS. The next section elaborates on the

strategic rivalry in the context of the SCS.

5.1.2) Strategic Rivalry in the SCS

The SCS has become a focal point for U.S. and China rivalry. Around 2010, the SCS started

to become associated with broader strategic problems related to China’s naval build-up and

American forward presence in the region (Buszynski 2012). China’s territorial claims goes

well beyond its EEZ or continental shelf and overlaps with legal claims of other regional

states (See Annex 1 and 6). Many of China’s opponents in the territorial conflicts are

considered to be allies of the U.S., e.g. the Philippines. China’s assertive behavior, wanting to

control the water, resources, and land features within its ‘nine dash line’, has led scholars to

question if China is really a status quo power, as China’s leaders have claimed to be over time

(Friedberg 2015: 91; Burgess 2016: 112). The display of force, and threats to use force in

advancing its territorial claims together with the rejection of any multilateral and legal

solution to the dispute, has shattered the illusion, that China is becoming “...a ‘responsible

stakeholder’ in the existing international order.” (Friedberg 2015: 91; Burgess 2016: 112). A

invitation by the U.S. to organize a combined exercise of the U.S. and PRC navies in 2018

was retracted after China stationed bombers in the SCS in May 2018 (Katigbak 2018).

46

Stephen F. Burgess argues President Xi Jinping appears to be seeking regional dominance, as

part of his legacy, which leads to an enhanced risk of unintended escalation of the conflict in

the SCS (2016: 111). Burgess understand China’s buildup of military outposts in areas

claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines as an example of how China is becoming a

revisionist power seeking to dominate the SCS and limit the U.S. access to the region (2016:

112). Leszek Buszynski argues, China believes they need increased naval strength to rise to

the status of great power (2012: 145). These elements create a rising bipolarity in the region.

As China experience a rise in economic power, its maritime interest and ambitions similarly

expand. This leads China into a conflict with U.S., who is the current dominant naval power

in the Western Pacific (Buszynski 2012: 145). Furthermore, China has demonstrated its

ability to abandon agreements and declarations. In 2002 China signed the ASEAN

‘Declaration on a Code of Conduct’ (CoC) for the SCS, which entailed a moratorium on new

constructions. China did not follow through on its commitment and continued to develop and

construct in the SCS (Rappler 2016a).

However, the very assertiveness and expansionist drive China shows in the SCS also hems in

its development as regional hegemon. China has surrounded itself with territorial disputes and

created suspicion in the region, which may strengthen the American position. All the way

from Japan over Korea, the Philippines to Vietnam, China is viewed as a potential security

threat, while the United States do not have any territorial ambitions.

In order to understand the power rivalry and potential outcomes in the SCS, Sarah Raine and

Christian Le Mière uses the terminology: ‘Nobody’s sea’, ‘Somebody’s sea’ and

‘Everybody’s sea’ in their book, Regional Disorder: The South China Sea Dispute (2017).

The three concepts offer a good description of the process in the SCS. Under U.S. hegemony

it was somebody’s sea. Now due to the rivalry and growing bipolarity between China and the

U.S. it has become nobody’s sea. China’s actions, assertiveness, and nine-dash-line illustrate

China want it to be somebody’s sea in contrast to the other claimant states, and ASEAN who

wants it to be everybody’s sea. These contradictions and different understandings of what the

SCS is supposed to be, heightens the risk of it becoming a ‘Sea of conflict’ leaving the

security environment in the region unpredictable and un-transparent (Raine and Le Mière

47

2017). The risk of conflict also leaves the U.S. and other claimant states in the region more

hesitant in its actions towards China. Small mistakes or miscalculations could easily escalate

the situation.

Burgess argues the SCS is of greater importance to China than it is to the U.S. due to

proximity. Therefore, it is rational for China to be more assertive and employ active defense,

making it difficult for the U.S. to convince China of its resolve (2016: 115). The SCS is said

to be an acting ground for a power transition between the U.S. and China. The more powerful

China becomes the more difficult it is for the U.S. to balance against its rise without

provoking conflict. This leaves open the question if U.S. allies and partners will turn towards

bandwagoning with China (Burgess: 114).

China is posing a challenge to the international order underpinned by U.S. power. Within the

academic literature on China’s rise there are many contradicting discussions and answers

found on what may happen over the next decade (Goldstein 2007). If China continues to

grow, the U.S. will face a choice between accommodation and confrontation (Friedberg 2015:

94). Under President Obama the strategy in how to deal with China was clear. But with the

election of Donald Trump as president in November 2016 the U.S. strategy becomes unclear

or unexciting (Choong 2017; Chacko and Jayasuriya 2017; Huxley and Schreer 2017). The

next section discusses the implication of a new U.S. President on the security environment in

the Southeast Asia region.

5.1.3) Trump and the Asia-Pacific – What Now?

The Obama administration’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ encompassed important diplomatic, military, and

economic dimensions. It was seen to be a shift away from the Middle East and Afghanistan

towards Asia (Chacko and Jayasuriya 2017: 122). It promoted forward-based U.S. military

presence in the region with its deployment of 60% of the naval forces, a strong U.S. support

for multilateral institutions, and finally a strong economic engagement with the key element

of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP aimed to secure the possibility for Southeast

Asian states not to become overly dependent on China (Huxley and Schreer 2017). In strong

contrast, President Trump has ripped up the TPP – killing a main pillar of the pivot to Asia,

48

enacted punitive tariffs on China, and threatened to pull American troops out of Japan and

South Korea (Choong 2017; Huxley and Schreer 2017; Associated Press 2018).

Recent events suggest Trump may create progress with the U.S. position in North Korea, but

results remain to be seen. Most of Trump’s threats remains rhetoric, and there is still no clear

Asia strategy. Trump’s main policy, ‘America First’, falls under three broad themes: bring

back jobs from overseas, U.S. military allies must pay more for their defense, and a

preference for bilateral over multilateral trade agreements (Choong 2017: 182). However, it

can be argued the negotiating strength of the U.S. is increased in a bilateral setting. This

leaves uncertainty for U.S. allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific on how Trump will handle a

rising China. Trump appointments of China critical and trade focused Wilbur Ross, Robert

Lighthizer, and Peter Navarro indicated Trump’s policy towards China is likely to be focused

on trade. Trump has introduced steel tariffs and negotiations are ongoing (Associate Press

2018). He has also indicated he would challenge China on the military front if necessary.

Presidential advisors Alexander Gray and Navarro had claimed the previous administration’s

strategy towards the Asia-Pacific has led to Chinese aggression and left American allies and

partners discouraged. Trump, and his administration, have been provoking China with many

statements. Especially when Trump answered a phone call from Taiwanese President Tsai

Ing-wen in December 2016, breaking the ‘one China’ principle. But China has not taken the

provocation easily (Choong 2017: 184). Choong describes it as an action-reaction cycle taking

place within U.S.-China relations. Despite U.S. threats and provocation, China has continued

construction on its established outposts in the Spratlys and seized a U.S. underwater

surveillance drone in the EEZ of the Philippines (2017). These actions illustrate the strength

of China’s resolve and indicate China will continue to assert its claims in the region and

counter any U.S. challenge to such assertions.

In order for the Trump administration to roll back Chinese expansion in the SCS, it needs to

deal with the contradictions within its policies. “…how would ‘America First’ square with a

bid to re-assert American dominance in the Asia-Pacific? How would dropping the TPP gel

with what Trump sees to be the importance of the U.S. presence in the region? And how could

a potential clash with China help to sustain the U.S.-led liberal order?” (Choong 2017: 186).

These questions posed by Choong highlight the uncertainty on how the U.S. will position

49

themselves within the Asia-Pacific region. Tim Huxley and Benjamin Schreer argues the U.S.

allies and partners needs a clear Asia strategy from the Trump administration to reassure them

about America’s competence, capacity and resolve to preserve its position of dominance and

leadership in the region (2017: 81). Trump’s rhetoric under his campaign triggered unease in

many Asia-Pacific states, due to his questioning of US’s commitment to its allies and partners

combined with his economic nationalism. His views of America's role and position within the

international system is in clear contrast with America’s post-Second World War role

illustrating a possible power transition.

The ambiguity generated under Trump arrives at a moment in history where China’s coming

as a major strategic and powerful actor has caused many Southeast Asian-states to hope for

U.S. reinforcement, rather than U.S. reduce in strategic presence. “…many regional countries

were in a ‘strategic holding pattern’, waiting to see ‘whether the United States and its security

allies and partners can continue to play the robust and constructive role that they have for

many decades in delivering peace…if ‘stability and prosperity are to continue, the United

States must play an even greater role as the indispensable strategic power in the Indo-

Pacific’.” (Huxley and Schreer 2017: 83). Strategic holding patterns are a reaction to the

potential power transition in the region. It has been argued China will step in to fill the power

vacuum created by the Trump administration's missing Asia strategy, pushing different states

towards China (Huxley and Schreer 2017). The election of President Trump reveals the

fracturing of the social foundation, that underpinned the U.S.-led liberal world order, which

Obama's ‘Pivot to Asia’ was envisioned to consolidate (Chacko and Jayasuriya 2017).

John Mearsheimer argues the power balance is still in favor of the U.S. and long term

economic and technological change are the determining factors for future developments

(2018). This means the Trump administration can afford to consider various strategic avenues

in the Asia-Pacific region (Huxley and Schreer 2017: 84). This includes measures of

economic cooperation and sanction, in order to encourage or discourage economic and

technological development in the region. The remarkable development of Japan and the

Republic of Korea can be viewed as historical precedents and were in part, due to U.S.

support, creating strong allies and stakeholders in U.S. hegemony (Iokibe and Minohara 2017,

Kim and Vogel 2011). However, Donald Trump’s preference lies with economic sanction,

50

expanded military balancing and retrenchment (Associate Press 2018; Choong 2017).

However, even though it seems unlikely, it may be argued the current developments in Korea

could offset Trump’s apparent weakness. If the U.S. succeed in integrating the Democratic

People’s Republic of Korea into their security and economic orbit a direct land-border

between U.S. troops in the Republic of Korea and China could be established. Such a border

would reduce the strategical usefulness of the islands in the SCS in China’s defensive strategy

(Pollack 2015; Huang 2017).

5.1.4) The U.S., the Philippines, and China - A Strategic Triangle

The Philippines has, and still is, operating within a strategic orbit of the U.S. (Heydarian

2016a: 337). They are formally allies and series of agreements and treaties exist between

them. Examples are the U.S.-Philippines Military Assistance Pact (1947), the Military Bases

Agreement (1947), and the mutual defense treaty (1951) meant to ensure the U.S. would stand

as de facto guarantor for the Philippines, in the event of an aggressive war against the

Philippines (Heydarian 2016b: 149).

The long history between the Philippines and the U.S. is still playing an important role and is

affecting the relationship and collaboration between the two countries today. The memories of

American colonization and oppression have left the Philippines with an ambiguous

relationship to the U.S.. The Philippines hold a strong nationalistic feeling and are on a quest

for self-determination pushing them away from the U.S.. But the Philippines still needs the

U.S. to provide security and military support. It is essential for them to keep up good relations

in order to maintain the much-needed military support. The U.S. are in a sense the ideal

patron, because they have no direct territorial interests in the Philippines anymore, but still

has a strong incentive to maintain Philippine territorial integrity in the face of Chinese claims.

Even before WWII the U.S. had a strong presence in Asia. It’s now defunct military bases in

Subic and Clark functioned as a deterrent towards China on Filipino soil (Heydarian 2016a:

337). Today the U.S. still has the upper hand and the capacity to balance China with its

defense budget of 587,8 billion USD compared to China’s 161,7 billion USD. Today China

has 2,955 aircrafts, 4,788 armored fighting vehicles, and 1 aircraft carrier. Compared to the

51

U.S., China is still falling behind. The U.S. controls 13,762 military aircrafts, 41,062 armored

fighting vehicles, and 19 aircraft carriers. Despite the fact, that the Philippines intend to

increase their military budget from 1 percent of their GDP to around 2.4-2.5 percent, Defense

Secretary Delfin Lorenzana acknowledges the Philippines still have one of Asia’s weakest

militaries (Parameswaran 2017). If one compares the Philippines military capacity to its rising

neighbor China, it becomes clear why they are dependent on the U.S. for security and military

support. The Philippines defense budget is 3 billion USD, their total number of aircraft is 149,

they have 778 armored fighting vehicles, and no aircraft carrier (GFP 2017; Brinkløv 2017).

In terms of martial might the Philippines can be labeled a small power relative to China and

the U.S..

Despite the Philippines strategic proximity and dependence upon the U.S., they began to

reach out to China in the 1970s, when China began to normalize its relations with the U.S.

(Heydarian 2016a: 338). Tourists coming from China brought economic growth, and China

committed itself to big investments in the Philippines and promised infrastructure

improvements (Baviera 2013: 3-4). In 2016 China became the Philippines largest trading

partner worth 21.937 billion USD or 15.5 percent of the country’s total trade. The export

receipts from China was 6.373 billion USD while payment for import commodities was

valued at 15.565 billion USD, resulting in a 9.192 billion USD trade deficit. The U.S.,

compared to China, is the Philippines third largest trading partner. They Account for 11.6

percent or 16.427 billion USD in trade (Brinkløv 2017; Philippine Statistics Authority 2017;

Cahiles-Magkilat 2018). At the same time the country enjoys the influx of a large influx of

remittances from overseas Filipino workers, primarily in the U.S. (Rowley 2018). Comparing

the Philippines trade relations with respectively China and the U.S., clarifies they are

dependent upon both countries in securing economic growth and development. But only the

economic relation with China is problematic, because of the territorial conflict WPS, which

invites sanction politics. This is according to Aileen San Pablo-Baviera why the bilateral

relationship between China and the Philippines is more important than their asymmetry and

differences might otherwise suggest (2013).

It can be argued that: “To fully understand the strategic triangle between the U.S., the

Philippines, and China it is important to understand the shift in the systemic environment after

52

the Cold War. In the post-Cold War era there was no longer an ‘existential external threat’

from the Soviet [Union]. Due to this, and along with a wave of nationalist and pacifist

sentiments washing over the Philippines, there was no longer the need for a strong U.S.

military presence in the country.” (Brinkløv 2017: 17). Baviera and Javad Heydarian both

argue the disappearance of the obvious threat to their own social position led the political elite

in the Philippines to decide to rely on their own capabilities against external threats. In 1992

the U.S. bases in Subic and Clark were closed down (2013; 2016a). The closing of the two

military bases could be seen as the beginning of the contestation of U.S. hegemony by China

(Baviera 2013; Heydarian 2016a).

The US’s turn away from the region resulted in strategic window of opportunity for China to

extend its control of the WPS. The Chinese navy soon took control of Mischief Reef in the

WPS and harassed of Filipino fishermen. “To the Philippines’ horror, China soon began to

build a military compound on the atoll, effectively consolidating its expansive territorial

claims well into the Philippine claimed waters.”(Heydarian 2016a: 341). This was a wakeup

call for the Philippines and soon after they wanted to revitalize their ties with the Americans.

This lead to the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement, which allowed U.S. military presence on

Filipino soil (Heydarian 2016a; Baviera 2013; Governments of the USA and PH 1987).

Again, nationalist sentiment led to discussions on whether strong security ties with the U.S.

were serving the country's best long-term interests. According to Heydarian, the result of

nationalist sentiment and insecurity on how to best position itself between the two great

powers in the region, led to a turn towards China and the economic benefits provided when

being friendly engaged (2016a: 342-343).

The following sections of the analysis explore the intervening variables, that translate the

oscillating opportunity structure and risks created by the beginning Chinese challenge of U.S.

hegemony in its immediate surroundings. The first intervening variable explores the

connection of the ‘back and forth’ between great powers and the perceptions or misperception

of the Filipino policymakers. The Philippines finds themselves in a dilemma. On the one hand

they are dependent on the U.S. for security, and on the other hand they are pushed towards

China due to nationalistic sentiment and potential economic benefits.

53

5.2) The Statesmen's Perception

In the previous section it is argued that the long term prospect for the power balance in the

Philippine’s surroundings appear uncertain, because the systemic signals are unclear. Thus

analysing intervening variables becomes more important. The Philippines are struggling to

find their place in the post-Cold War world. This struggle becomes visible within the

perceptions of the political elite. Schweller argues there are certain conditions when threats

are more easily recognised. Among these are rising powers with territorial claims and security

concerns, that conflict with those of other states (2006). As discussed in the first part of the

analysis, this is the case in the WPS. Furthermore, states with historical experiences of

subjugation tend to be more sensitive to potential threats (Schweller 2006). Arguably this is

the case with the Philippines. Yet current Philippine policy under Duterte is non-action

towards China and attempts to rest the issue despite constant Chinese encroachment.

The following chapter finds Duterte’s perceptions differ markedly from previous incumbents.

Duterte believes China is needed to secure economic and infrastructure development. At the

same time Duterte perceives the U.S. as declining and being unwilling to aid the Philippines

in the WPS, should conflict with China erupt, which Duterte believes to be likely (Mendez

2018). Therefore, Duterte argues further conflict with China would foreclose a potential

partnership in domestic development and leave the Philippines exposed to retaliation without

U.S. support. Yet the resolution of the Marawi crisis put a hold to Duterte’s separation plans

with the U.S., due to the extensive support and help with fighting the insurgency. However,

Duterte’s views were not swayed in the long term, in May 2018, after the fact, he insisted the

U.S. would not aid the Philippines in combating insurgents (Mendez 2018).

Furthermore, it is shown, that within the political elite in the Philippines there are many who

do not agree with Duterte’s perceptions and his concomitant foreign policy. It has been argued

that the ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ does not reflect the Filipino view in general (Interview

Manhit 2017: Brinkløv; Interview Carpio 2017: Brinkløv; Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv;

Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv; Interview Acedillo 2017: Brinkløv; Interview Batongbacal

2017: Brinkløv). “Duterte does not represents the Philippines. He represents whatever

political interests he has.” (Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv).

54

5.2.1) The Duterte Administration

The Chief Foreign Policy Executive, President Duterte

The Philippines presidency is the oldest in Asia and has an extraordinary powerful chief

executive. Constitutionally the Philippines’ chief diplomatic architect is the President

(Heydarian 2017: 220). “Article VII Executive Department Section 1. - The executive power

shall be vested in the President of the Philippines.” (The Philippines’ Constitution 1987).

Mark R. Thompson argues that the Philippines are an example of hyperpresidentialism (2014:

434). This is due to weak constraints on the appointment powers of the Philippine presidency,

its ability to circumvent legislative and judicial constraints, and its domination of what should

be independent regulatory and oversight agencies (Thompson 2014: 434). Formally the

president is the main foreign policy executive, and has the final say. Foreign policy practice in

the Philippines is consistent with the president’s strong formal position and must be

understood in the context of the presidential agenda (Interview Baviere 2017: Brinkløv;

Interview Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv; Interview High ranking member of government 2017:

Brinkløv; Interview Rabena 2017: Brinkløv; Interview Dureza 2017: Brinkløv).

President Duterte is the first president to hail from Mindanao, the most distant part of the

country from the capital, and the first president to take office directly after holding a local

government position, as mayor of Davao City (Cook 2018: 268). Duterte has been categorized

as an outsider to ‘imperial manila’. Yet Duterte was not uninvited, as he had powerful backers

in Manila, including former President Ramos, who later came to regret his decision, citing the

violence committed by Duterte backed groups (Reuters 2016; Ilagan and Mangahas 2016).

During the presidential election campaign, Duterte repeatedly underlined that he would

continue as the mayor of the Philippines, and he did not want to be addressed as President.

“He will govern the country the same way he governed Davao City” (Inquirer 2017). It has

been argued that Duterte has kept true to his word and embraced a very mayoral approach to

being president. Custodio argues his mayoral approach extends to foreign policy – “…it

reflects a very local - a mayor’s perception of politics and his [Duterte] worldview.”

(Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv). This has earned him criticism for his limited

international and national experience (Strategic Comments 2016). Justice Antonio T. Carpio

argues that Duterte’s lack local outlook results in a foreign policy of which he does not

understand the long-term consequences (Interview Carpio 2017: Brinkløv). Baviera describes

55

Duterte’s self-conception as: “.... a strong local leader, where it is very much about having

control and all that – so yes, it is very personal for him” (Interview Baviera 2017: Brinkløv).

Justice Carpio argues Duterte’s personal commitment to the ‘War on Drugs’ means U.S. and

EU criticism causes him to respond emotionally and turn towards China (Interview Carpio

2017: Brinkløv). Manhit likewise argues that the ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ and here by

the turn towards China, is rhetoric and driven by personal anger over interference in his

domestic politics. “This is how Duterte reacts [towards the U.S. and the EU], anyone who

questions his war on drugs - he tends to get very defensive publicly. Privately when he meets

with them he doesn’t really become defensive. But publicly, it is the populist nature of the

president” (Interview Manhit 2017: Brinkløv; Interview Emmers 2017: Brinkløv; Interview

Baviera 2017: Brinkløv).

Duterte has been described as a ‘tough-talking’ or ‘foul-mouthed’ leader due to his many

harsh remarks against political leaders or institutions criticizing him. This has been especially

visible in relation to Duterte’s mains political goals, like the ‘War on Drugs’. When the U.S.,

UN, and the EU began to openly criticize his human rights record, he lashed back with hard

words for previous President Barack Obama, the American ambassador to the Philippines,

and openly questioned the wisdom of the UN system as a whole (Heydarian 2017a: 220).

Some have argued that Duterte’s use of “gutter” language injects authority to his urgency of

saving the country (Curato 2017: 149). A Philippine policy maker described Duterte’s

political thinking“We have all experienced a friend or classmate who is a bully maybe.

Normally they are afraid of one thing – a bigger bully. That is how I see our President. He is

tough internally, but when there is somebody bigger than him, he is afraid. (Informal

conversation with Philippine policy maker 2017: Brinkløv). This is also exemplified in his

fury against any constraints, even legal or constitutional, to his personal political agenda and

politics (Cook 2018: 268; 2017: 5).

Despite Duterte’s harsh rhetoric he remains extremely popular. In December 2017, 71 % of

adults polled were satisfied with the president, and only 13 % were not. His approval ratings

are strongly positive across all sub-sections of the population. Duterte is the first president to

56

enter in to office with a high level of trust and keep it steady over the first quarter of his term

(Cook 2018: 268-269). This strong consistent popularity, in a mix with the fluid and

momentary ways of Philippine party politics, secured Duterte and his administration a historic

super-majority in the House of Representatives (90%) and a majority in the Senate (Strategic

Comments 2016a: v; Cook 2018: 269). This leaves him in a position as a political leader, to

push through his political agenda without any, or very few, obstacles. Nicole Curato argues

that Duterte’s popularity is strongly connected to his populist leader style (2017: 145).

Duterte’s brand of populism is described as ‘repertoire of performance’ which is meant to

build the bridge or relation between the leader (the performer) and the population (audience),

comparable to President Trump’s rhetoric (Morffit 2016).

Duterte’s populist, heavy-handed leadership style is also reflected in what he has determined

as the Philippines’ national interest: 1) Ensuring economic growth and development; 2)

Tackling domestic security issues; 3) Solving drug related problems (Brinkløv 2017; Duterte

2016). The following provides a more detailed overview:

1) The 10-point economic agenda entails a poverty reduction from 21.6% in 2015 to 13-

15% by 2022. It also aims to accelerate the infrastructure project and buildup of

industries that will create growth across the country and create new jobs. The ‘Build

Build Build’ portal lists down high impact project that are envisioned to create jobs

and better income for the Filipino population (Philippine Government 2017).

2) The main domestic security issue are the Islamist and Communist insurgencies; that

reached their peak with the Marawi city siege. It was a main priority for the President

(Heydarian 2017b). On the 17th of October 2017, President Duterte declared Marawi

City liberated (McKirdy and Berlinger 2017). But even if the crisis is ended, the

impact on political decisions then, are still crucial to Duterte’s actions and politics.

3) The signature issue, setting him apart from previous administrations, is the ‘War on

Drugs’(Go 2017: 59; Cook 2018: 271). Duterte consistently presents illegal drugs and

related crime as an existential threat, and himself as the last possible option to save the

country (Strategic Comments 2016a: v). Despite the scathing criticism from human

rights groups, the international community, and the opposition, Duterte continues his

hard stand on prioritizing this issue.

57

The Duterte administration has expressed its conviction, that the Philippines require foreign

martial and economic support to tackle all these issues. The following section discusses the so

called ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ as the administration's strategy to mobilize international

support to achieve domestic goals.

Duterte’s ‘Independent Foreign Policy’

In September 2016, Duterte announced the Philippines would pursue an ‘Independent Foreign

Policy’ (Galang 2017; Romero 2017; Merez 2017). This implicated his government would be

the first to break with course plotted by the U.S. colonial administration (Interview Baviera

2017: Brinkløv). However, the Philippine constitution of 1987 makes explicit mention of

independent foreign policy in: “Article II, Section 7: ‘The State shall pursue an independent

foreign policy. In its relations with other states the paramount consideration shall be national

sovereignty, territorial integrity, national interest, and the right to self-determination.”

(Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs 2017). This definition leaves room for

interpretation, of how it will be translated into a concrete policy. Therefore, the president can

use the independent foreign policy as a tool to construct his or her own version of the foreign

policy, and secure the prioritisation of his or her perception of the national interest. This

creates a certain amount of flexibility (Brinkløv 2017: 20). Hence, based upon the

‘Independent Foreign Policy’, the actual policy or strategy towards the WPS can be shifted

based on national or political interests (Interview High ranking member of government 2017:

Brinkløv).

Duterte bold claim to the label of ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ originates in his break with

the traditional U.S. alliance: “I will be chartering [sic] a [new] course [for the Philippines] on

its own and will not be dependent on the United States.” (Heydarian 2017a: 220). Duterte also

made it clear, that the Philippines would seek a new alliance with China and foster closer

economic and diplomatic relations. He is determined to take advantages of China’s emergence

as a major economic power, and in the process replace the U.S. security arrangement with

China as the new main foreign bilateral relation (de Castro 2017: 4-5). This indicated Duterte

would change the foreign policy in respect to the U.S., its main security ally, and China its

main extremal security threat.

58

Presidential Peace Adviser Jesus Dureza recounted a conversation with the President about

the meaning of the ‘Independent Foreign Policy’; Dureza asked: “what do you mean by an

independent foreign policy, because that is already in our constitution… what is the difference

between what is there and what have been done by previous foreign policy makers? What will

you be doing?” Duterte replied: “...you know we have friends, but we would like to make

more friends who are not yet friendly, or who is still far from our friendly perimeter.”, Duterte

was referring to the U.S. and China. Dureza again asked: “Will it mean that you will abandon

all ties with tested allies, or will you shift interest away from those we are close with to those

who are not in your alliance, especially militarily?” Duterte: “You know, the purpose is only

to win new friends but also keep the old friends.” (Interview Dureza 2017: Brinkløv; Brinkløv

2017: 21). This is the basic explanation from President Duterte to a friend and member of his

administration on what the ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ encompass. However, Duterte’s

reasoning about systemic circumstances necessitating such steps remains unclear. The

following paragraphs analyse Duterte’s perception of systemic pressures, discussed in the

previous chapter.

Duterte’s Perceptions of the Systemic Pressures

President Duterte has raised legitimate concerns over the U.S.’s reliability as an ally. For a

long period, the Philippines was the biggest recipient of American Foreign Military Financing

in Southeast Asia. But in the period between 2010-2015 monetary military assistance declined

(Heydarian 2017a: 231). This happened despite Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’. Baviera argues that

the Obama administration was increasingly concerned with China’s actions in the SCS, hence

the U.S. began to take a stronger interest in the region. This happened just after the financial

crisis and ironically: “When the U.S. did have the capacities they did not have the political

will. And when they had the political will they did not have the capacities.” (Interview

Baviera 2017: Brinkløv). Baviera stresses that she believes the U.S. could have done

something if they really wanted to (Interview Baviera 2017: Brinkløv).

Furthermore, Philippine policy makers perceive the U.S. as questioning the area the Mutual

Defense Treaty covers. The U.S. do not consider the Spratly island and the Scarborough shoal

as part of the Philippines territory due to the way the treaties were written. As stated by a

High Ranking U.S. Embassy officer: “Technically, in legal terms we do not consider it to be

59

something we have to defend. The Philippines very much seems to think that we should do

that for them. So, there is a divergence of interests. We are not a claimant state to the South

China Sea. For U.S. it is only the freedom of navigation…” (Interview High ranking U.S.

Embassy officer 2017: Brinkløv). Carpio argues the new American position contradicts

colonial era U.S. maps, that clearly illustrated that the Scarborough Shoal as being part of the

Philippine territory (See Annex 5.). Hence, they were indirectly saying that they no longer

believe it part of the Philippine territory (Interview Carpio 2017: Brinkløv: Brinkløv 2017:

21). Carpio amongst other explicitly expresses, that the U.S. is reneging on its obligation

towards the Philippines, leaving the vivid impression of being in decline in the region.

Heydarian argues U.S. government officials, including Obama, on many different occasions,

have neglected to reaffirm their willingness to aid the Philippines should tensions with China

in the WPS escalate into armed conflict (2017a: 231). In relation to this, Secretary Dureza

argues that Duterte believes the U.S. has its own interest to protect. “Don’t even think that one

country will go to war for another. The U.S. will do with is good for them. China will do what

is good for them. And the Philippines will do what is good for us.” (Interview Dureza 2017:

Brinkløv). This shows that Duterte’s perception of the U.S. is that they will not come to the

help of the Philippines in the WPS, not as long as it is not in their interest. Rebena stresses the

uncertainties about U.S. support due to their own economic stakes with China (Interview

Rebena 2017: Brinkløv).

The pessimism Philippine policy makers show about U.S. commitments today, can also be

traced back to the ‘Scarborough Shoal Standoff’ in 2012. Chinese government vessels

prevented a ship of the Philippine navy from arresting Chinese fishermen, illegally exploiting

the resources around the shoal (Zhao 2012: 60). In the situation the Philippines turned towards

the U.S. for arbitration. Subsequently the U.S. negotiated the withdrawal of both parties.

However, China simply neglected to comply with the negotiated solution and took full control

over Scarborough Shoal (Interview Manhit 2017; Interview Carpio 2017; Interview Hing

ranking member of government 2017: Brinkløv). Despite the fact that the decision was made

by China, Philippine policy makers, hereunder Duterte, blame the U.S.. In the Philippines, the

Philippine failure to resist the Chinese incursion is interpreted as the U.S. failure to uphold the

commitment to the Philippines national defense (Heydarian 2017a: 231). President Duterte

60

views the incident as confirmation of his perception of U.S. decline in the region (Heydarian

2017a: 231). Duterte believed that the interest of the U.S. and of the Philippines are not

converged. In fact, there is a strong perception amongst most of the Filipino policy makers

that the U.S. have let the Philippines down (Interview Carpio 2017; Interview Dureza 2017:

Interview Baviera 2017; Interview Manhit 2017; Interview Batongbacal 2017; Interview

Custodio 2017; Interview Rabena 2017: Brinkløv). According to Secretary Dureza’s, this is

Duterte’s argument why it is vital to make new friends closer to home, despite the obvious

disregard of China’s open hostility. Therefor the ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ was

proclaimed by Duterte (Interview Dureza 2017: Brinkløv).

Another explanation Duterte offers is his claim China will start a war, should the Philippines

continue the Aquino administration's balancing policies, including the insistence on

international legal norms (Interview Manhit 2017: Brinkløv). Duterte believes the power

capabilities of the Philippines to be nowhere near sufficient to challenge China and as

established above, does not trust treaties with the U.S.. Aaron J. Rebena emphasizes the

question: Do the Philippines really want to confront China if they do not have someone

stronger to back them? (Interview Rebena 2017: Brinkløv). Rebena explains a Filipino joke

which has apparently reached China. “When I was in China they knew a joke about our air

force – It’s all air, no force” (Interview Rebena 2017: Brinkløv). This clearly exemplifies both

how China sees the strength of the Philippines, but most importantly how the Philippines

perceive their own power capabilities.

Yet the ruling of the PCA provided Duterte with a non-military possibility to gather

international support and strengthen the Philippine position. Again Duterte claims this would

provoke China to declare war, despite no evidence of any such development during the

arbitration process (Heydarian 2017a: 231). Again, the perception of some Philippine policy

makers is the fault lies not with the Philippines, but the U.S., that let the Philippines down, by:

“calling for ... “calm and patience”, while immediately deploying National Security Advisor

Susan Rice to Beijing to communicate the Obama administration’s interest in preserving “the

most important bilateral relationship” of the 21th century.” (2017a: 231).

61

Duterte’s Conceptualization of National Interest and ‘Independent Foreign Policy’

In order to fully understand what is driving Duterte’s ‘Independent Foreign Policy’, his

perception of the national interests is important. In the above section on ‘Duterte’s Perception

of the National Interests’ these priorities were presented. This section analyzes how Duterte’s

prioritizing of the national interest affect the foreign policy.

The 10 Point Economic Agenda and the ‘Build Build Build’ initiative - Economic

Concessions from China

As mentioned before the perceived national interest of President Duterte is strongly driven by

domestic policy aspirations. Duterte sees China and their growing economy as something that

should be benefited from. “Right now, the foreign policy is in the name of trade and

investment and friendship…” (Interview Manhit 2017: Brinkløv). But he seems to forget

Chinese interests. On the one hand, China has indeed promised President Duterte support,

particularly in terms of infrastructure investments and development aid, if he changes the

previous confrontational strategy of the Aquino administration. On the other hand, China has

threatened Duterte with stark responses if he continues to facilitate the American military

pivot to the region, and actively use the arbitrational ruling against China’s interest

(Heydarian 2017a: 232). As aforementioned Duterte is worried about the prospect of a

military confrontation with China. Heydarian quotes Duterte: “I will not go to war because we

will not win it. It will be a massacre. I will not waste the lives of Filipino soldiers and

policemen.” (2017a: 232).

Batongbacal argues that the Duterte administration is convinced China is the answer to all

their needs for financial development assistance and better access to the Chinese market. They

believe that this is the only way to go since the U.S. and EU are in decline and China is the

rising economic power. “Because of that Duterte believes that he is being opportunistic -

China is the opportunity, so let’s go there. Never mind the U.S. and the EU, they are in

decline anyway” (Interview Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv). Gary Alejano and Francisco

Acedillo agrees with this “Duterte has shifted towards China because he believes that China

has excess capacity and that we [the Philippines] could avail from the resources of China.

They [Duterte and his administration] are seeing the U.S. as declining.” (Interview Alejano

2017: Interview Acedillo 2017: Brinkløv). Rabena argues that one of the main reasons for

perceiving the U.S. as declining, is the for seeing the U.S. as being in decline is the

62

breakdown of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The Philippines were looking forward to

the economic gains from the TPP corporation. Now that it does not exist anymore it becomes

easier to turn towards China and their economic promises (Interview Rebena 2017: Brinkløv).

Batongbacal further explains that how one of the government’s economic managers said at a

forum, that from their perspective there is no longer any money in the West (Interview

Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv). This is one of the government’s main assumptions. He further

stated that they now have to turn towards China and the region for further economic

development. This is also argued by Emmers: “Duterte might be thinking we need Chinese

foreign direct investment to upgrade the Philippines infrastructure and to continue to grow.

And we can’t do that without China.” (Interview Emmers 2017: Brinkløv).

Duterte believes that in moving away from the U.S. he can please China and secure

concessions. Especially economic concessions. It is important for him to get goodwill from

China to further his domestic projects, the ‘10 Point Economic Agenda’ and the ‘Build, Build,

Build initiative’, in order to address the poverty problem in the country. Hence, the

‘Independent Foreign Policy’ is being used as a tool by Duterte to further what he sees as

being in the best interest for the Philippines (Interview High ranking member of government

2017: Brinkløv).

If Duterte was to raise the tribunal ruling on the WPS that would upset China. It is a general

understanding within Duterte’s administration, that China will provide foreign direct

investment to the Philippines if they keep quiet about the ruling and the WPS in general (All

interviewed 2017). An example are the 34 billion dollars that are expected from China to help

build a new railroad (Interview Carpio 2017: Brinkløv). Justices Carpio emphasizes: “…

China says, we will give you the money just keep quiet about the South China Sea… what is

in it for the President?... he wants to build a railroad and his Build Build Build projects. He

wants to achieve what he thinks is the national interest” (Interview Carpio 2017: Brinkløv). In

relation to this, Gary Alejano explains that Duterte presented to the Special Committee on the

WPS and to the Foreign Affairs Committee of Congress, that the reason why the Philippines

is backing down in the WPS and benching the ruling, as part of the ‘Independent Foreign

Policy’, is to secure welfare, infrastructure, and jobs to the Philippine people (Interview

Alejano 2017: Brinkløv). Alejano and Acedillo emphasizes that security matters in the WPS

63

are being neglected in favor of hope for economic gains (Interview Alejano 2017; Interview

Acedillo 2017: Brinkløv). This illustrates that Duterte connects his withdrawal from the

assertive stand towards China in the WPS with securing what he finds in the national interest

of the Philippines.

The Marawi crisis and Recent Events

“We have domestic security issues that affects our resources. Because of the internal security

problems, the Philippines cannot fully address the WPS issue.” (Interview High ranking

member of government 2017: Brinkløv).

This section examines perceptions of recent international martial support for the Philippines.

It finds Duterte prioritises domestic development and security issues over the conflict with

China in the WPS. This is due to Duterte’s perception of China as being the new regional

hegemon, willing to aid the Philippines economically if they set aside the artribitional ruling

and the conflict in the WPS. But Duterte is also determined to reshape public opinion of the

U.S. in a negative fashion, despite their support in solving domestic security issues.

In recent time Duterte has been friendlier in the rhetoric toward President Trump and the U.S.

in general (Esmaquel 2017). The reason for this is connected to the Marawi crisis. Duterte

needed the U.S.’s help in fighting the terrorist siege. A high-ranking officer from the U.S.

embassy to the Philippines argues that the friendship between the U.S. and the Philippines is

still strong, especially militarily. Duterte might not acknowledge it in public, but he does so in

a private bilateral setting, that he is grateful to the U.S. for the help and support they have

given to the Philippines in Mindanao and Marawi (Interview High ranking U.S. Embassy

officer 2017: Brinkløv). This argument is supported by Dureza. He agrees that the Philippines

needs the U.S. to solve the Marawi crisis (Interview Dureza 2017: Brinkløv). Baviera also

argues that the Philippines needed the U.S. for the Marawi crisis, since China did not have the

right military equipment or will to take on the task. Only the U.S. was able to deliver the

support the Philippines needed (Baviera Interview 2017: Brinkløv). Batongbacal stresses this

argument: “In terms of security relations, Duterte made such a big show about turning

towards China and Russia for security alliances. But it turns out that China and Russia is not

interested in that. So, when the Philippines needed assistance with Marawi, who was there?

U.S. and Australia, the traditional allies.” (Interview Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv).

64

Despite Duterte’s initially friendlier approach towards the U.S. after the Marawi issue, he has

returned to his post-electoral flat rejection of any U.S. contribution to Philippine security

recently. In May 2018 Duterte cast doubt on the willingness of the USA to aid the AFP in

Marawi, even though the U.S. have already made crucial contributions and continue to be

present (Mendez 2018). Even while China introduced bombers capable of carrying nuclear

payloads and proceeds to exploit expanding areas of the WPS, Duterte suggested the

Philippines should seek Chinese military aid in Marawi (Mendez 2018; Reuters 2018b).

Duterte did not change his stand on China and questioned the point of protesting China’s

actions, arguing he did not want to start a war (Placido 2018). In the beginning May 2018

Duterte claimed China will protect the Philippines from external threats and accused U.S.

forces of war-shyness while praising Chinese and Russian contributions in Marawi (Geducos

2018). Only weeks later Duterte drew a red line and threatened war, should China build

military installations on Scarborough Shoal and begin unilateral resource exploitation (Viray

2018c). Within the same month China occupied the Philippine Island of Sandy Cay with naval

forces and civilian vessels began exclusive Chinese resource extraction (Viray 2018a; Viray

2018b). In reaction, former Chief Justice of the Philippines, Davide Jr, critically reminding

the Philippine public of Duterte jokingly calling the Philippines a Chinese province in front of

a Chinese audience in February 2018 (BusinessWorld 2018). U.S.-officials have commented

“... there’s only one country that seems to take active steps to rebuff ...” Chinese activities

after a U.S. Navy freedom of navigation exercise in the area (Agence France-Presse 2018).

On May 31st the Philippines filed diplomatic protest against recent Chinese activities

(Corrales 2018c).

In the next section the political elite’s understanding of Duterte’s actions and perceptions is

discussed.

5.2.2) Elite Opposition

This section analyses perceptions within the Filipino political elite towards the current

administration. It begins by discussing understandings of Duterte’s ‘Independent Foreign

Policy’ and continues with a discussion of the views held on the premises that drive Duterte’s

foreign policy agenda. It finds the there is little agreement with Duterte’s understanding, even

though trust in the U.S. has suffered.

65

Reception Duterte’s ‘Independent Foreign Policy’

The name ‘independent’ is a very convenient label to use for political purposes and whether

or not the foreign policy is independent is subjective to people (Interview Batongbacal 2017:

Brinkløv). Despite the provision in the constitution from 1987 on the independent foreign

policy, there is still a perception that the Philippines is, and have been, historically, politically,

and ideologically aligned with the U.S. in a manner that makes them unable to make decisions

based on the Philippines interest and perspectives. According to Batongbacal, the Philippines

has actually been relative independent in its foreign policy for years – “...even though the

Philippine’s population does not realize it...” (Interview Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv).

Professor Victor Manhit argues, that Duterte decided to use the phrase ‘Independent Foreign

Policy’ to define his pivot towards a stronger relationship with China. He does not want to be

constrained by the U.S.. But Duterte’s turn toward China, and letting them influence him,

leads to new constraints. According to Manhit, an independent foreign policy should entail

maintaining strong relations with traditional allies and trading partners and at the same time

improving relations with China. One should not be exclusive of the other (Interview Manhit

2017: Brinkløv).

This take on the ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ is also reflected in the Filipino Defense and

Security Strategist and Historian Jose Custodio take on the issue. He argues that Duterte’s

take on the foreign policy is “good in name only” (Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv). He

suggests the ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ is linked to Duterte’s search for alternative

partners, that are less critical of his ‘War on Drugs’. Custodio further argues, that the shift

towards China within Duterte’s ‘Independent Foreign Policy’, is to secure international

support if his traditional partners should choose to take their criticisms to actions such as

economic sanctions. Duterte may have found a willing guarantor in the PRC. “This is

something that in a way underpins the lofty assumption of and independent foreign policy”

(Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv). In May 2018 Duterte stated Xi Jinping had told him:

'We will not allow you to be taken out from your office…’, effectively implying his immunity

from domestic threats and international accountability (Viray 2018d).

66

Professor Jay Batongbacal, like Custodio, describes the ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ as “just

another political label” (Interview Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv). It has the purpose of selling

and justifying Duterte’s decisions vis-à-vis China and the Philippine people. Batongbacal

argues that Duterte is aware of his actions towards China. In relations to the territorial dispute

in the WPS, his actions are not consistent with the broader expectations of what the foreign

policy towards China should intaile (Interview Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv). When it comes

to the WPS and Duterte’s ‘Independent Foreign policy’, there is a gap between Duterte’s

approach and what the public thinks should be done. This becomes clear in the high public

distrust towards China and the strong support for the arbitrational ruling on the territorial

dispute with China in the WPS (Pulse Asia 2017). This stands in stark opposition to the

President’s high trust towards China and setting aside of the favorable ruling. The question of

public opinion is elaborated in the chapter on state-society relations.

A high ranking member of the Philippine government argues, that Duterte actively uses the

fact that the ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ is up to interpretation. “The President says that the

foreign policy is leaning away from the U.S. and towards China. But at the same time leaning

away from China and towards the West, is also part of it.” (Interview High ranking member

of government 2017: Brinkløv). This adds to the uncertainty about what is the actual foreign

policy.

This doubled take on the foreign policy can be explained by three different arguments. The

first two arguments adopt a negative perspective on Duterte, whereas the last is positive:

1) The foreign policy is a ‘knees jerking’ reaction to actions undertaken by Chinas and

the U.S. instead of a proactive policy. This means Duterte is just reacting to what

China is doing one day, trying to accommodate them, and the next day he is reacting

towards the U.S. trying to accommodate them (Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv).

67

2) “The thing with the Duterte administration, is that you should not confuse it with

Duterte” (Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv). It is a potluck administration - meaning

that everybody ‘brings their own food’. Factions within the administration brings their

own agenda and hence neglects uniting in a cohesive manner to add the agendas

together as part of a coherent strategy. The department of foreign affairs has its own

agenda. The department of foreign affairs is led by Peter Cayetano, who has his own

agenda. The Philippines ambassador to China has his own agenda, and his vision of

good relations with China might not be the same as Cayetano’s vision. Custodio

argues that this potluck administration takes advantage of Duterte’s ‘Independent

Foreign Policy’, and the freedom of interpretation it entails, leaving the inconsistent

picture of the foreign policy. Due to this, Custodio categorizes the foreign policy, not

as independent, but as “...a collection of interest and people who have their own

separate agendas.” (Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv).

3) In contrast to the argument, that the foreign policy is a ‘knee jerking’ reaction to

pressures from China and the U.S., Secretary Jesus Dureza and a High ranking

member of government argue, that: ‘moving back and forth’ between the U.S. and

China is a proactive hedging strategy (Interview High ranking member of government

2017: Brinkløv; Interview Dureza 2017: Brinkløv). The different signals being sent

are a deliberate action of the President to get the best from both countries and to

secure that the Philippines does not “...come on the side of one alliance” (Interview

Dureza 2017: Brinkløv). The foreign policy is aimed at maximization of diplomatic

economic relationships with non-traditional partners and reduced dependence on the

U.S. (Interview Rabena 2017: Brinkløv). Secretary Dureza emphasizes that in order to

understand the current ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ one must “…listen to what he

[President Duterte] says and enjoy it, but watch what he actually does.” (Interview

Dureza 2017: Brinkløv). There seems to be a common understanding by Duterte, and

his administration, that the independent foreign policy is a hedging strategy (Brinkløv

2017).

These three different arguments and understandings illustrate a disagreement on what the

‘Independent Foreign Policy’ entails and how President Duterte is perceived. Yet in the light

of the systemic circumstances, Duterte’s proposed foreign policy can be interpreted as a form

of bandwagoning. China has not given indications, that it may change its stance on the WPS,

68

and Duterte has not acted in the defense of these territories. Quite on the contrary, he proposes

to increase economic exchange and a form of infrastructure development, that would depend

on China (Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv).

The above section clarifies that the ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ is part of the 1987

constitution and that it is not something new. The change lies in the perceptions of the

‘Independent Foreign Policy’ and how it is used by different presidents and policymakers.

The section shows a disagreement within the Philippine political elite on what the

‘Independent Foreign Policy’ entails. To some it is a fragmented policy and a ‘knees jerking’

reaction to China and the U.S.. And to others, hereunder the Duterte administration, it is a

clear hedging strategy to maximize diplomatic and economic benefits from old and new

partners. From a realist standpoint his policies may be interpreted as initial stage of

bandwagoning with China.

Critique of Duterte’s Premises

Custodio stresses that the feeling amongst the senior members of government and other

important political players, is that the Philippines should not overrely on the U.S. or China

(Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv). On the one hand the U.S. has its own interest to protect

in its relations with China, like the Korean Peninsula. On the other hand China’s construction

of military installations within the Philippine EEZ beckons caution. A High Ranking Member

of Government argues that “The number one issue that prevents U.S. from engaging China

before, is the issue of trust. Can we really China, given the recent history and their actions –

what they did at Mischief Reef and at the Scarborough Shoal when both of U.S. agreed to

withdraw and they did not. So how can we trust China because of this?” (Interview High

Ranking Member if Government 2017: Brinkløv). He further argues that it is paradox, that

Duterte and Cayetano has full trust towards China, when most of the policy makers and

Filipino population do not (Interview High Ranking Member if Government 2017: Brinkløv).

In relation to this argument, Manhit affirms that the arbitration ruling is permanent, but the

government is not. This fact is also acknowledged by China who knows that Duterte might be

the only one who is really in favor of setting aside the ruling in order to have more friendly

relations (Interview Manhit 2017: Brinkløv).

69

When confronted about his failure to utilise the arbitration to keep Chinese claims at bay,

without having to go to war, President Duterte has repeatedly falsely claimed the ruling was

handed down early enough for the Aquino administration to make good use of it, when in fact

the ruling was awarded in the beginning of his own term (Corrales 2018b). Carpio upholds the

view: “We have to restate our approach [to the WPS conflict] when Duterte is gone.”

(Interview Carpio 2017: Brinkløv). The Americans have the same approach to Duterte’s

Presidency: “The larger strategy with the Duterte administration is to wait him out.”

(Interview High Ranking U.S. Embassy Officer 2017: Brinkløv).

Manhit agues the terminology used, by Duterte and the media, on the WPS issue with China

is perceived as misleading. They entrench the understanding, that the territories in the WPS

are disputed and China will go to war or impose economic sanctions if the Philippines where

to insist on the ruling. “I hate it when they use the phrase: ‘this is disputed territories’ – it’s

not anymore.” (Interview Manhit 2017: Brinkløv). The public slips into this narrative even

after the ruling in favor of the Philippines. And this is the narrative Duterte bases his foreign

policy on.

The previous government under President Aquino experienced economic sanctions on the

banana trade due to their hard line against China in the WPS (Heggins 2012). This is one of

Duterte’s reasons for why the Philippines should have a friendly relationship with them. But

Manhit argues the case is not strong. “There is really no money coming from China.

Historically, that is why the old government had the hard line – China has really not invested

that much.” (Interview Manhit 2017: Brinkløv). He points to the argument that there is no

history of China investing in a lot in the Philippines (Interview Manhit 2017: Brinkløv). At

the time where the Philippines was experiencing a drop in banana export to China, they also

saw a 6,8% economic growth rate. Chinese promises of greater economic investment in the

Philippine’s have shown themselves to be unreliable (Interview Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv),

but China has had great success with investments in Philippine politics. Duterte himself has

confirmed his presidential campaign was partially financed by Chinese donors (Macas 2016).

70

Batongbacal elaborates that the promises of China for economic help and trade is not coming

through and argues that the current administration has taken their beliefs in China to the

extreme. “They are not realizing that even if the Americans are in decline, even if the EU is

weakening as a market, it is still a substantial portion of the Philippines market.” (Interview

Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv). Justice Carpio also argues the Philippines negative trade

balance with China reduces the impact of economic sanctions. Thus, China would experience

greater loss in an economic war. Justice Carpio and Albert Del Rosario studied the potential

economic impact of sanctions before they filed the arbitration case against China, and found it

would not significantly reduce growth (Interview Carpio 2017: Brinkløv). This undermines

Duterte’s premise of economic risks attached to insisting on the favorable ruling.

A High Ranking Member of Government argues the Philippines stands at the risk of falling

into economic dependency, which will lead to political capture. He questions what the

consequence of accepting China’s economic enticements will be. The promises from China

are potentially dangerous, especially in relation to the WPS (Interview High Ranking Member

of Government 2017: Brinkløv). The Americans are also concerned the Chinese are trying to

get economic leverage over the Philippines so that they can put the screws on the Philippines

in WPS (Interview High Ranking U.S. Embassy Officer 2017: Brinkløv). There is a general

fear within the Filipino political elite, that Duterte might have accommodated China too

much, too early and for too little, and thereby have diminished the prospects of a favourable

solution. Batongbacal says the government allowed China free range in the WPS, in the hope

that in exchange China would return the favor. But China has not reciprocated, they have

stayed where they are and intensified their activities (Interview Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv).

Some would even argue that Duterte is selling of what should be the Philippines most vital

security interest, namely its territorial integrity. “…the national interest of territorial integrity

should never be compromised… despite whatever foreign policy or strategy we have.”

(Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv; Interview Acedillo 2017: Brinkløv).

Despite the difficulty for the U.S. to support the Philippines in the WPS and Duterte’s

eagerness to break ties with them, relations are still perceived as intact by members of the

political elite. Batongbacal argues that despite Duterte’s efforts to elevate China’s role, it has

not yet made a significant impact on relations with the U.S.. He underlines that ties with the

71

West are too institutionalised to just break from one day to another (Interview Batongbacal

2017: Brinkløv).

In 2016 the U.S. helped push back the Chinese from Scarborough Shoal despite the lack of

action in 2012. He further argues that U.S. has no other choice than to honor the Mutual

Defence Pact, because of the consequences it will have on the US’s relations with its other

allies around the world (Interview High Ranking Member of Government 2017: Brinkløv).

The argument is also carried by Alejano and Acedillo. They raise the question “If we cannot

depend on our treaty ally, how will other countries rely on the US?” (Interview Alejano 2017:

Brinkløv; Interview Acedillo 2017: Brinkløv). Rabena explains that the Americans lack of

clearly about their stand towards the WPS is to maintain strategic ambiguity. He believes that

they might be trying to test the Chinese resolve (Interview Rabena 2017: Brinkløv). From an

outside perspective, Emmers maintains that relations between the U.S. and the Philippines are

still good: “A U.S. official said to me: ‘despite the crazy rhetoric, our day to day relations are

still very good’, no cancellations of exercises and such.” (Interview Emmers 2017: Brinkløv).

This fits well with the statement from a High Ranking U.S. Embassy Officer: “Duterte gets it

privately that the U.S. is important to the Philippines and how big of a help we have been. But

publicly not.” (Interview High Ranking U.S. Embassy Officer 2017: Brinkløv).

At the American Embassy in Manila discarding the TPP is viewed as detrimental to U.S.

interests in the region (Interview High Ranking U.S. Embassy Officer 2017: Brinkløv).

Custodio argues that the U.S. are still able to show to the world, especially China, that

relations between them and the Philippines are still intact. This happened during the Marawi

crisis where the U.S. showed its importance and influence when one of its B3 Orion aircrafts

flu in very low over Marawi. Custodio explains: “That aircraft can stay higher in altitude. But

this one went down to show itself. That was a clear signal to everybody, even China, that the

President of the Philippines might be saying that you are best buddies, but we [the US] are

calling the shots here. We are the ones with the Philippines military, not you guys [China].”

(Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv).

72

Another important premise for Duterte’s arguments for his prefered foreign policy is that

China will go to war against the Philippines if he uses the arbitrational ruling and resists them

in the WPS. An important perception, that is not shared by the political elite. As

aforementioned Duterte has publicly stated many times that he does not what to go to war.

Manhit argues that there can be no talk of war after the ruling. China would not go against an

international ruling. Manhit questions why China did not start a war when Aquino was

president and the Philippines were very assertive towards China? “Why was there no attack

when the arbitrational case was filed? Why was there no attack at the height of the conflict?”

(Interview Manthi 2017: Brinkløv).

Alejano and Acedillo argue: “China is using the phrase ‘that the U.S. let the Philippines down

in the WPS, leaving the question hanging, if we attack you, will the U.S. come and help you?

No, they will not.” (Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv; Acedillo 2017: Brinkløv). Alejano

underlines that talk of war, is Duterte intimidating the Philippine people. It is a way for

Duterte to defend his actions of lack thereof (Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv). Justices

Caprio stresses that war is out of the picture and a clear misperception by Duterte since

offensive war is against the UN Charter. He agrees that it is an attempt by Duterte to

legitimize his own approach to the conflict. “Legally the dispute is settled and the U.S. is the

only real ally of the Philippines and China knows this, therefore they will not go to war.”

(Interview Carpio 2017: Brinkløv). Carpio explains, that China intends to secure the SCS

without firing a single shot and without going to war. They will conduct public relations

warfare, legal warfare, and psychological warfare. (Interview Carpio 2017: Brinkløv). Manhit

further argues that Duterte’s perception is a irrational misperception. A rational reaction to a

threat like this, would be building alliances. He should have used the ASEAN chairmanship to

gather international support and introduce a common code of conduct on the SCS issue.

Likewise, he should have moved closer to traditional allies like the U.S. and Australia, to

strengthen balancing capabilities (Manhit 2017: Brinkløv).

Duterte, in his role as chairman, defined the outcome of the ASEAN 2017 summit.

Comparing the main statements from the Joint Communiqué of the ASEAN Foreign

Ministers’ Meeting, 2016 to 2017, the rhetoric on China and the SCS is changed. In 2016

there was an emphasis on the member states remaining “…seriously concerned over recent

73

and ongoing developments and took note of the concerns expressed by some Ministers on the

land reclamations and activities in the area…” (ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting 2016). In

2017, under the chairmanship of Duterte, it has changes to a much lesser serious tone: “We

discussed extensively the matters relating to the South China Sea and took note of the

concerns expressed by some Ministers…” (ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting 2017). The

Philippines have clearly taken a step backwards in relation to the ASEAN cooperation on the

SCS issue with China (Interview Manhit 2017: Brinkløv). Manhit highlights a contradiction

with the way Duterte words the WPS issue: “On the way to ASEAN last week, Duterte was

already talking about that he will raise these issues [West Philippine Sea]. So, he used the

media as a puppet to say that he will do something. But behind the scenes he didn’t do

anything.” (Interview Manhit 2017: Brinkløv).

Baviera argues China has the capacity for self-correction, but at its own pace. China has

suffered a legal defeat, which is as source of learning for them. But China is not going to

change their behavior overnight. Baviera argues the Philippines need to patiently insist on the

ruling until China adjusts its behaviour. However, Duterte’s non-action allows China to

consolidate its gains and irreversibly alter the status quo. It is unknown how buildup of

structures in the WPS will it take before Chinese claims can no longer be reversed. Baviera

argues: “By setting aside the ruling, we don’t know if we are waiting for a better opportunity

or actually missing an opportunity that could have resin stronger support from the

international community and thereby strengthen the Philippines position.” (Interview Baviera

2017: Brinkløv).

The following section on strategic culture is intimately connected with the sentiments of

potential government internal opposition to Duterte’s anti-American agenda, especially within

elements of Duterte’s supermajority that are less beholden to short term political agendas or

have Manila’s, rather than Mindanao’s perspective.

5.3) Strategic Culture

This section analyses the strategic culture of the Philippines. It looks into beliefs, norms, and

assumptions adapted through socialization and institutionalized norms, which create a socially

acceptable horizon of possible policies. The analysis focuses on history and the societal

reception to the development of a strategic culture.

74

It is argued that there is nothing controversial about President Duterte’s call for an

‘Independent Foreign Policy’ since the Philippines constitution from 1987 preserves the

principle of independence. What is new about Duterte’s foreign policy is the emphasis on

separation from the U.S. and a non-dependence on the U.S.. It is a norm for the Philippines to

turn towards the U.S. for security. The main assumption has always been that the Philippines

could count on the U.S. and the conditions within the various treaties between the two

countries. These elements have led to an institutionalization of a strategic culture connected to

cooperation with the U.S., which is analyzed and discussed in the next chapter on domestic

institutions. The strategic culture of the Philippines has existed since the colonization of the

U.S. and is closely linked to a dependence on the U.S. for security in relations to external

threats. Despite national sentiment and an urge for more independence from the U.S. after the

end of the Cold War, the Philippines strategic culture was still found to be linked to the

history with the U.S. under President Aquino (2010-2016). Duterte is trying to break with the

strategic culture of the Philippines by limiting ties with the U.S. and turning towards China.

Whether or not a change in the strategic culture will take place, depend upon the success of

President Duterte, the administration that takes over the presidency, and the influence of

domestic institutions on the actual relations with respectively the U.S. and China.

5.3.1) The Philippines and the US’s Special Relationship – the Strategic proximity to the

Americans

Since the end of World War II, the Philippines has been part of the liberal international order.

It has participated in the advance of the global human rights regime and the development of

the United Nations system (Heydarian 2017a: 220). The Philippines, as found in the

independent variable, has since its independence remained within the strategic orbit of the

U.S.. After a short-lived war against Spain in 1889, the U.S. became the new colonial power

in the Philippines. The Philippine-American War of 1899-1902 remains a symbol of the

Filipino people’s pursuit for self-determination and the fight against imperialism. When the

U.S. colonized the Philippines, it transformed it into a showcase colony modelled on their

political system. In order for the U.S. to maintain the peace, and win over the elites of the

Filipino society, the Americans allowed them to maintain the same privileges as they had

under the Spanish colonization. In addition, they also provided access to new technology,

capital, and new foreign markets. The result was an American-style political system, where

75

the survival of the Filipino elite dependent on the survival and success of the colonial power

(Heydarian 2017a: 222-223). This formed the foundation of the Philippines strategic culture.

The Philippines and the U.S. fought in the two world wars together, and during the Korean

War from 1950-1053 and the Vietnam War from 1955-1975 the Philippines deployed

thousands of troops. This was despite the end of American colonization in 1946. It has been

argued by many that the American influence over the Philippines extended far beyond the

colonization and still is prominent today (Heydarian 2017a: 223; de Castro 2017; Timberman

1991). When the Philippines became independent U.S. troops remained in the country and

were hosted at two of their largest overseas bases in Clark and Subic. Clark and Subic served

as a platform from where the U.S. could project power and dominance into the region. This

was at the time aimed at containing the spread of communism and the bases were maintained

throughout the Cold War. The Philippines served as a key element in the U.S.-led ‘hub-and-

spokes’ military alliance architecture in the Asia-Pacific. The ‘hub-and-spokes’ system

consisted of a network of bilateral alliances to secure U.S. strategic leadership in East Asia

(Misalucha & Amador III 2016: 52; Heydarian 2017a: 223; De Castro 2017: 3). This shows

the pivotal role of the U.S. in Philippine security politics has become an entrenched norm.

Heydarian argues that this strategic centrality came at the cost of the Philippines policy

autonomy and that a strategic culture was founded on the outsourcing of external security to

the U.S. (2017a: 223).

The long-term reliance on the U.S. for external security still has implications today. The

Philippine strategic culture prioritizes internal security threats over external security threats.

The security establishment within the Philippines gradually established a profound and

damaging sense of strategic dependence upon the U.S., which was illustrated in the

aforementioned ‘Scarborough Shoal incident’. This sense of strategic dependency upon the

U.S. was entrenched by the various security arrangements and treaties between the U.S. and

the Philippines. The most prominent of these are the U.S.-Philippines Military Assistance Pact

from 1947, the Military Bases Agreement from 1947, and the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT)

of 1951 (Heydarian 2017a: 223). These three agreements between the U.S. and the

Philippines entailed granting the U.S. the right to establish bases at different locations within

the Philippines territory. It also established that the U.S. would provide training and

76

development of the Armed Forces’ of the Philippines. And finally, the MDT supplemented

the bases agreement with an emphasizes on a mutual commitment to peacefully resolve

international disputes, jointly or separately developing the capacity to resist attacks, and the

need for consultation when the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of

either the U.S. or the Philippines were under threat of attack (Heydarian 2017a; Albert 2016).

This resulted in a stunted development of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP)

compared to other former colonies in Southeast Asia. Heydarian argues “America became the

de facto guarantor of the Philippines’ survival against external threats. As a result, the

Philippines became more of a de facto protectorate than a sovereign ally of America.” (2017a:

223).

5.3.2)The Aftermath of the Cold War

After the end of the Cold War the relations between the Philippines and the U.S. changed. The

alliance between the two became challenged by domestic politics within the Philippines along

with a change in the systemic environment. Due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and

China’s integration into the global economy driven by the western lead liberal world order,

the U.S. no longer felt the need to maintain a large-scale military presence in the Philippines.

There was no longer an ‘existential external threat’ from the Soviet bloc (Heydarian 2016a:

340; Baviera 2013: 20) This happened at a time where the Philippines witnessed a rise in

nationalism, that drove the call from civil society to remove the American presence in the

county (Heydarian 2017a: 224; Brinkløv 2017). The rise in nationalism was linked to abuse of

Filipinos by the American troops, who enjoyed immunity against prosecution in the

Philippines. Heydarian argues, that since there was no longer an existential threat to the

Philippines, a questioning of the rationale behind extending the treaties allowing U.S. bases

and American soldiers began (2017a: 224). There was no justification left to keep the

American presence and the associated harassment and problems. This resulted in the

Philippines relying on their own capabilities in defining themselves against any external

threats. The U.S. would remain their most important ally, but the Philippines would no longer

“act as a de facto satellite state” (Heydarian 2017a: 224).

In 1992 the American military bases in Subic and Clark were terminated. Not only because

the Philippines wanted it that way, but also because the U.S. in generally moved out of the

77

region and did not want to pay the high expenditure associated. Some would argue that this

marked the regional beginning of a U.S. decline and a rising China (Heydarian 2017a: 224;

Heydarian 2016a: 340; Baviera 2013: 20). But soon after the U.S. retreated from the

Philippines territory, the Chinese Naval forces wrestled control over the Mischief Reef in the

WPS from the Philippines and began harassing Filipino fishermen. This created a diplomatic

crisis with China that the Philippines had not experienced before. As Heydarian describes:

“To the Philippines’ horror, China soon began to build a military compound on the atoll,

effectively consolidating its expansive territorial claims well into the Philippine claimed

waters.” (2016a: 341). At the time of events, the Ramos administration (1992-1998)

considered a military response but did not have the power capabilities vis-à-vis China. The

U.S. made it clear the they would not intervene on the behalf of the Philippines. The reason

behind this was their neutrality on territorial disputes in the Southeast Asian region. The

Americans also argued that the Mischief Reef fell outside what was covered by the MDT and

the American national interest in general (Interview Carpio 2017: Brinkløv; Heydarian 2017a:

224).

What is important to understand from this, is when the U.S. left the AFP where unable to fill

the space and China moved into the vacuum. The Philippines soon after sought to revitalize

the security ties with the U.S. leading to the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement, which allowed

U.S. military presence in the country (Heydarian 2016a; Baviera 2013). It made it possible to

expand the joint military exercises, increase the military aid, and enhance the intelligence-

sharing (Heydarian 2017a: 225). But this was again questioned by the nationalist sentiment

and the political opposition. It led to a growing concern over whether the security ties with the

U.S. were serving the country’s best interests (Heydarian 2016a: 342-343; Brinkløv 2017:

18).

At the same time, the Chinese seizure of the Mischief Reef led the current President Ramos to

call for a modernization of the AFP and a strengthening of the defense sector. Ramos realized

that the Philippines had neglected to develop the Philippines external defense capabilities. On

one hand, the reason for this was the long history of focusing on domestic security issues, e.g.

the Islamic and Communist insurgencies. On the other hand, was the Philippine over-

78

dependency on the U.S. presence in the region and strategic protection (Heydarian 2017a:

225).

5.3.3) Benigno Aquino III’s Resurrection of American-Filipino Security Alliance

Under the presidency of Benigno Aquino III (2010-2016) the alliance with the U.S. was

revitalized. The security alliance and MDT between the Philippines and the U.S. became

increasingly entrenched in the consciousness of the Filipino policy makers due to the rising

tensions with China in the WPS (Misalucha & Amador III 2016: 55). In 2011, on the occasion

of the 16th anniversary of the MDT, Albert Del Rosario, current Foreign Affairs Secretary of

the Philippines, together with Hillary Clinton signed the Manila Declaration. This was done in

order to reaffirm the MDT as the footing for the bilateral relationship between the two

countries (US Department of State 2011). Charmaine Misalucha and Julio Amador III argues

that there are two important mechanisms which are of importance in the revitalization of the

alliance between the Philippines and the US: “…the Bilateral Strategic Dialogue and the

Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).” (2016: 55). The two arrangements

illustrate the enduring Philippine commitment to the alliance with the U.S. and that the

Philippines up until 2016 worked within the strategic culture of security dependency on the

U.S..

The Bilateral Strategic Dialogue entailed senior officials from both countries meeting once a

year to share and discuss their respective views on various national, regional, and global

changes and challenges. It is a key mechanism for debating political, security, and economic

cooperation (Misalucha & Amador III 2016: 55; U.S. Department of State 2017a). The EDCA

is in general terms oriented towards a fortification of the bilateral security partnership

regarding the development of the Philippines’ minimum credible defense position. This was

thought necessary due to the changing geostrategic environment in the Asia-Pacific. The

EDCA aims to maintain and further develop both the Philippines and the U.S.’s collective and

individual defense capabilities to better achieve the goals of the MDT (Misalucha & Amador

III 2016: 56). This entailed a modernization and allocation of more resources to the AFP in an

effort to change the AFP’s focus from domestic security issues to external security issues.

Diversifying the Philippines security relation to other U.S. allies like Japan and Australia was

also an important element of the agreement. These elements of the agreement were based on

79

the U.S. security umbrella in the region along with the ‘hub-and-spokes’ architecture. It was

important for the Philippines to reverse the historical underinvestment in external defense

which before had been thought covered by the U.S.’s security role in the region (Misalucha &

Amador III 2016: 57). Misalucha and Amador argue the EDCA comprehends the sensitive

political environment that surrounds the U.S.-Philippines history and relations. They stress the

element within the Philippines constitution which states that “Any permanent basing by U.S

forces is prohibited…” (Misalucha & Amador III 2016: 57). In the light of the aforementioned

dissatisfaction with the U.S. former abuse during their permanent basing in the Philippines,

the EDCA received vast critique. The Supreme Court of the Philippines has adjudicated a case

that was filed which challenged the EDCA’s passage on shared facilities build by the U.S. in

the Philippines but owned by the Philippines. On the 12th of January 2016 the court found the

EDCA conformed with the constitution (Rappler 2016c).

The interaction with the U.S. took a new turn under Aquino. The vitalization of security

relations with the U.S. bought the Philippines time to modernize the AFP and prioritize

external security. This could have aided the transition from a strategic culture anchored in

dependency on the U.S. to an AFP based culture. But this development was cut short by the

election of President Duterte. He began his term by breaking with the Americans and turning

towards China in his ‘Independent Foreign Policy’. This became especially visible in the

changing rhetoric shown during the Bilateral Strategic Dialogue in March 2016 and the next

in December 2017.

In the joint U.S.-Philippines press statements from the Bilateral Strategic Dialogue in March

2016 and December 2017 a clear difference in the rhetoric on collaboration between the two

countries and the SCS issue is visible (US Department of State 2016; US Department of State

2017a). In March 2016, Aquino was still president and the joint statement emphasizes the

good strategic relationship between the Philippines and the U.S.. The joint statement

summarizes: “…The annual dialogue supported and reinforced the Alliance across a broad

range of shared values, interests, and priorities… Discussions reaffirmed shared commitment

to strengthening the Alliance, in terms of ensuring both countries’ mutual defense and

security, as well as jointly contributing to regional peace, stability, and economic prosperity.”

And importance was given to the history of strategic cooperation and cultural bonds between

80

the two countries: “…the delegations from the United States and the Philippines underscored

the strong personal and societal bonds, including a commitment to shared values and norms,

which form the core of the relationship, and reaffirmed their commitment to continue to

support and deepen people-to-people ties…” (US Department of State 2016). This highlights

vital elements from the Philippines strategic culture, hereunder the close connection to the

U.S.. Furthermore, great importance was given to closer security cooperation and on the

reinforcement of the MDT and the EDCA agreement. In relation to China’s assertiveness in

the SCS, the Philippines and the U.S. reiterated their commitment to peace, security, and

stability in the region, unhindered lawful commerce, and freedoms of navigation and

overflight and other uses of the SCS sea as assured by international law. More specifically on

the Philippines turn toward international law and the arbitration case against China over the

disputed territories in the WPS the following was stated:

“Both sides expressed their firm opposition to the ongoing militarization of outposts in the

South China Sea and discussed their common view that the installation of new military assets

on the outposts escalates tensions. They discussed options to address further militarization and

unilateral actions in the South China Sea. … Both sides restated their views that the ruling in

the South China Sea case before the U.N. Law of the Sea Convention arbitral tribunal would

be legally binding on both China and the Philippines.” (US Department of State 2016).

This clearly illustrates that the Philippines under the Aquino administration still worked

within the strategic orbit of the U.S.. They followed the strategic culture of the Philippines in

depending on the U.S. as the guarantor of the liberal international order, here under the

freedom of navigation and overflight and the rule of law.

After Duterte took office his ‘Independent Foreign Policy’ soon affected the rhetoric in joint

statement. The statement from December 2017 merely explained the general purpose of the

Bilateral Strategic Dialogues along with a list of topics, mainly focused on what the

Philippines would see as domestic issues: “…senior officials discussed a wide variety of

issues of mutual interest and reaffirmed their commitment to deepening collaboration in areas

including maritime security, humanitarian assistance and disaster response, cybersecurity,

81

countering transnational drug trafficking, countering terrorism, and improving drug

prevention and treatment services, as well as combating wildlife trafficking and illegal,

unreported, and unregulated fishing.” (US Department of State 2017a). No attention was

given to the Philippines favorable ruling in the arbitration case against China in the WPS. The

only mention given to the security issue, was a broader statement on the SCS: “Both sides

reiterated their commitment to uphold freedom of navigation and overflight and other lawful

uses of the sea in the South China Sea, and stressed the importance of peacefully resolving

disputes in accordance with international law, as reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention.”

(US Department of State 2017a). The only security issues that was stressed was the two sides

concern over North Korea’s unlawful ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Besides the clear

difference in relation to the WPS under Aquino to Duterte, is the lack of friendly rhetoric on

strong personal and societal bonds was taking out. The Philippines and the U.S. only

reaffirmed the importance of holding regular high-level consultations (US Department of

State 2017a). This demonstrates Duterte’s effort to break away from the historical strategic

culture of the Philippines by downplaying the cooperation with the U.S..

As argued in the independent variable and the first intervening variable, the Philippines still

depend on the U.S. for security. This was especially clear in relation to the Marawi conflict.

The historically over-dependence on the U.S. for security is still visible in the Philippines’

policies today. The AFP still lacks modernization in order to deal with external threats and are

still mainly focused on fighting domestic security issues. Whilst it was found that the

Philippines strategic culture is historically linked to dependency on American security, an

awakening occurred with the division of interest between the U.S. and the Philippines after

the Cold War. This was reversed by the Chinese seizure of the Mischief Reef and later the

Scarborough Shoal incident with China. With President Duterte an open questioning of the

strategic culture and dependency upon the U.S. for security has begun. It was shown in the

chapter on perceptions Duterte believes the U.S. have let the Philippine’s down in relation to

the WPS and the country needs China for economic development and prosperity. Therefor he

pushes for a break with the current strategic culture.

The next section proceeds with the analysis of state-society relations. While the importance of

ideational traditions creates some overlaps with strategic-culture the discussion here focuses

82

on the way in which the state can insulate policy makers from societal demands and

discontent and furthermore what segments of society have control of the state.

5.4) State-Society Relations

The following section of the analysis discusses the relations of state and society. The People

Power Revolutions (EDSA) in 1986, 2001, and a failed one in 2001 again, seem to suggest a

strong society, that acts in place of failing checks and balances on presidential power.

However, the analysis suggests People Power was successful only in conjunction with support

of traditional elites and the military. Yet electoral preferences cannot be disregarded. Polls

continue to suggest a clear distrust of China and support for U.S.-military aid and

disagreement with the decision not to use the favorable arbitration ruling in the conflict with

China.

5.4.1) Class and Political Power

The Philippines are an ethnically diverse former colony. As such, local identity building based

on pre-colonial polities might be expected. However, identity building outside the former

Sultanates remains difficult after centuries of colonization and Filipino nationalists are mired

by contradictory narratives (Timberman 1991: 12-13). In the late colonial phase and post

WWII decades, many Filipinos thus looked to the U.S. for cultural and consumer preferences

as they had earlier to Spain (Timberman 1991: 13). The continued importance of American

culture also becomes clear by the pervasive use of the English words in the press and politics.

According to Mark Thompson, Philippine society and politics are defined by the cleavage of

class, rather than the less viable ethnic or religious divisions (2010: 28). The decade long

conflict in the Muslim dominated southern region of Mindanao and surrounding isles has been

a fixture in Philippine politics. It that has defined elements of development- and defense-

politics and can be linked to approval ratings. But it can be argued the conflict is for the most

part external to Philippine society at large.

Historically Philippine economy has been largely based on agriculture. Large landholdings

and the resulting tenant economy evolved into systems of political patronage, once elections

were introduced (Timberman 1991: 17,23). As Timberman argues, poverty and vulnerability

of tenants opens the door for vote buying (1991: 21). Landowners use their inherent power

83

over tenants, money and violence to affect tenant compliance and bundle their political

strength in parties that in turn extract state resources. The result has been a chain of patronage,

ultimately connecting tenants to the president and the nexus of power, or “patron-in-chief”

(Thompson 2014: 433). Custodio argues: "The Philippine politics are very feudal. This is a

place where dynasties rule. The governor of a province belongs to a family, the town major

belongs to the same family, and the counselors belong to the same family." (Interview

Custodio 2017: Brinkløv).

Yet, the relative stability of this “changeless” system has been upset by various attempts at

agricultural reform (Timberman 1991: 111), and more importantly a shift towards the

informal and the service sectors of the economy (Thompson 2010). In 2003 40% of the

Philippine labor force was employed in the agricultural sector (FAO) by 2016 the number had

fallen to 27%, a little more than 10% of the total population (Philippine Statistics Authority

2017). As a consequence, traditional networks of patronage have become less effective at

eliciting electoral support and populist platforms have greater potential as the election of

Vice-president and former actor Estrada demonstrated already in 1992 (Thompson 2010:21).

Yet Arroyo’s traditionalist campaign won the 2004 election against Fernando Poe, also a

former actor, who surpassed Estrada in popular appeal (Thompson 2010:31). Later revelations

raised questions about the results, but Estrada managed to retain control of congress and avoid

impeachment (Thompson 2010).

It is in the retention and stability of control, that the advantage of the traditional networks over

populist mass appeal lies. The congress, courts, media, parties and business, all permanent

fixtures of the political landscape in the Philippines, are dominated by the upper and middle

class. Thompson argues these strata of society are instrumental to presidencies survival when

faced with allegations of corruption (2014: 443). The People Power Revolution II against

Estrada in 2001 has been linked with the countries elites, the return of the traditional parties

(Thompson 2010: 23). The mass mobilization of poorer segments of Metro Manila against

Arroyo, People Power III, was met with skepticism and resistance by the upper class, and

ended in violence and failure (Thompson 2010).

84

5.4.2) Public Opinion

Duterte has been known to make use of both populist and traditional strategies. Therefore, it is

important that he remain popular. The relation between the Duterte administration and the

civil society there are important elements, which contradict each other. It is well known that

Duterte and his administration have very high popularity ratings. In the First Quarter 2018

Social Weather Survey, from March 23-27, 69% Filipinos were satisfied with the current

administration. This is a drop of 10% from the 79% in December 2017 (Social Weather

Station 2017a). In another survey from Social Weather Station it was found that 80% of the

population trusts their President Duterte (Social Weather Station 2017b).

Yet Duterte’s high trust ratings on their own may offer a misleading perception of the public's

perception of his policies. In a Pulse Asia survey from December 2016 it is found that 84% of

Filipinos agrees with: “The Philippines government should assert its right on the West

Philippine Sea as stipulated in the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration” (Pulse Asia

2016). This is in stark contrast to Duterte’s decision to set aside the ruling in order to obtain

better relations with China. In the same survey, it is found that 76% of Filipinos trusted the

U.S.. Only 38% trusted China. As Manhit argues: “The Philippines don’t trust China. The

Philippine public never really trusted China. So here the President makes a big stand, but it

contradicts what the public wants.” (Interview Manhit 2017: Brinkløv). Both Filipinos

trusting China and trusting the U.S., believed that the Philippines should assert its rights in the

West Philippine Sea. The affection for the U.S. and distrust towards China is in line with

previous surveys and stand in contrast to Duterte’s repeated denunciation of the U.S. and his

effort to embrace China. Duterte is trying to shape public opinion by praising China and

demonizing the U.S. in the public (Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv). “As much as Duterte

does not want it to be an issue, there is also a certain red line he cannot cross. And Duterte

knows this. The Philippine public will not tolerate him giving in to China. He is in a difficult

situation with the resources in the WPS, the public done not want him to trade that away.”

(Interview High ranking U.S. Embassy officer 2017: Brinkløv).

When putting the aforementioned numbers and facts in relation with each other it is found that

the population is satisfied with Duterte and his administration. They are also satisfied with

him approaching China to better the relation. But it is very clear, better relations with China

85

should not be at the expense of sovereignty in the WPS. There is a gulf between the

president's foreign policy and the sentiment of the public toward the move away from the U.S.

and closer ties with China, when looking at the different surveys. In relation to this Gregory

Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Institute, diagnoses a schizophrenic

reaction: “Most citizens like the idea of an iconoclastic outsider driven to reform Philippine

politics and combat crime... but they consistently break with him on actual policy, including

foreign policy and the war on drugs.” (Woody 2017). It has been suggested temporary drops

in Duterte’s approval ratings in late 2017 were related to the recording of murder of minors by

the police (Ramos 2017). Police brutality in the ‘War on Drugs’ has affected poorer segments

of society disproportionately and the incident was followed by temporary suspension of

certain anti-drug operations by the police (Lamb 2017; Talabong 2017). The war on drugs has

also spawned a series of large protests supported by the Catholic church (Reuters 2018). The

‘War on Drugs’ as become a policy to exercise control over society. Alejano argues: "Duterte

is using the war on drugs to control the people. We (the Filipinos) are used to freedom and

protest and the freedom of speech. With the war on drugs, his objective is to sow fear to the

people and opposition." (Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv). Due to frictions between the

state and society, the government’s strategy is to try and limit information coming to the

public. This is done in order to establish a different status quo or norm, where the public is

forced to accept the perspective of the government (Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv).

Both Duterte’s foreign policy and the ‘War on Drugs’ are issues Filipinos disagree with

Duterte on, but they show a clear preference of the government tending to domestic issues. In

a survey from Pulse Asia, 2017, on Most Urgent National Concerns and Performance Ratings

of the Duterte Administration only 6% of respondents indicated ‘defending the integrity of the

Philippines’ territory against foreign threats’ is the most important issue. Amongst high

ranking preference are improving wages, creating jobs, fighting criminality, and fighting

corruption (Pulse Asia 2017). This reinforces the account given in the analysis of the

Philippine’s strategic culture, there is a high preference for prioritizing domestic issues. This

suggests the Filipino public is less likely to protest over foreign policy matters. Leaving the

President free to disregard public opinion on foreign policy.

86

5.5) Domestic Institutions

This chapter of the analysis discusses the influence of institutions on the foreign policy

process in the Philippines. The institutional center of gravity in the Philippines is found in the

presidency (Panao 2014). However, the presidency more than any other institution changes

with the office holders, therefore it is discussed in terms of Duterte’s ability to manage

institutions. Historically the presidency has depended on the military and the party system in a

complex triangular relationship (Quimpo 2009; Chambers 2012). Institutions in the

Philippines have been described as particularistic and can be beholden to certain factions.

The chapter begins by showing the military takes a keen interest in defense related foreign

policy, e.g. the Philippine’s territorial disputes, and in some instances even has made foreign

policy decisions (Chambers 2012:151). According to several authors the AFP has developed a

culture of political involvement (Quilop 2010; Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv; Interview

Alejano 2017: Brinkløv; Interview Acedillo 2017: Brinkløv; Quimpo 2005; Chambers 2012).

Yet it is bound to the administration in patronage networks. Certain actors within the officer

class form coalitions with specific politicians, which prevent the majority of the regular coup

attempts, but increase the military's ability to participate in politics (Abinales 2005; Quimpo

2005). It is argued that the symbiotic pairings of politicians and military officers not only

limit the chances of a coup, but also restrict foreign policy options of incumbent politicians.

Furthermore, the politicised military has also produced political incumbents. The military’s

role as provider of government services in conflict fraught areas has allowed the military to

compete with the party-based patronage systems, that dominate the countries politics

(Chambers 2012). In conclusion it is argued that the military has a robust historical preference

for the United States as security partner. Furthermore, it pursues a more aggressive posture

towards Chinese activity in Philippine territories and will pressure the incumbent

administration towards practicing such positions. Thus, the AFP limits the freedom of the

executive to form foreign policy.

The second part of the chapter discusses the party system as institutionalized forum for elite

competition. It is suggested that the Philippine party system and electoral process encourage

clientelist and arguably predatory politics and minimize ideological and foreign policy

concerns. As a result, much of the Philippine political elite does not develop high stakes in

87

foreign policy decisions. In the third part it is suggested Duterte has managed to limit the

institutional checks and balances, through the pursuit of authoritarian politics of intimidation.

Figure 2.

5.5.1) The Armed Forces of the Philippines

This section begins with a short outline of the historical development, function, and the

foreign ties of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). Relevant interviews are used to

establish the foreign policy preferences of the military. It then continues to explore the role of

the military in Philippine government. However, due to the difficulty in showing direct

influence on foreign policy, the relations with governments are used to show patterns of

foreign policy influence of the armed forces. Finally, Duterte’s foreign policy goals and in

areas within military interests are compared with the current state of events and

contextualized with interviews in order to indicate the influence of the armed forces as

intervening variable in the foreign policy process.

88

The Armed Forces of the Philippines and the United States

Filipino auxiliaries had been used in Spanish and American campaigns, in particularly in the

southern Philippines to conquer and repress Muslim majority territories. But the AFP were

created by the American colonial administration in 1935 (Timberman 1991: 44). The AFP

were modelled after and initially trained by the U.S. Army and thus subject to civilian

oversight (Timberman 1991: 44). Soon the Philippines became involved in WWII and after

independence as U.S. allies in Korea and Vietnam. However, most action the AFP have seen,

has been due to insurgency and rebellion by the radical left in northern Luzon and Muslim

separatists in southern Mindanao (Timberman 1991: 45,60,88-90). The traditional connection

with the U.S. in the AFP was emphasized by Alejano who said: “In the armed forces we are

oriented to the western doctrine. Most of our offices were trained in the U.S.. “… Aside from

the organizational we have personal relations with the people from the U.S….”(Interview

Alejano 2017: Brinkløv).

Despite the initially strong civilian oversight and little military tradition and prestige the AFP

gradually managed to leverage two factors to insert itself into the political process. Among the

checking mechanisms were the congressional confirmation process for certain ranks in the

AFP (Timberman 1991; Chambers 2012; Quimpo 2009). Furthermore, the fact that politicians

were mostly from the ranks of prominent, often landed, families, while the military promoted

social mobility created inherent mutual suspicions between the two institutions inherited from

class-based recruitment (Timberman 1991: 44). This also resulted in a tendency of the

military to align with the president (Timberman 1991: 44). However, the military was

increasingly made responsible for public services and infrastructure in where there were

insurgents and remote and inaccessible areas. Custodio argues the role of the military in

counterinsurgency has prevented modernization of the military hardware, appropriate to

territorial defense scenario: “You don’t need jet-fighters to attack rebels, this is the prevailing

perception…” (Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv). According to David Timberman the

frequent domestic activity normalized the presence of military personnel in civil matters to the

population. But the military was also influenced, as Raymund Quilop writes, by change of

military culture to one actively seeking involvement in government (1991:45,46; 2010:264).

A tendency, which weakened the military’s martial capacity by integration into political

cliques. Furthermore, Heydarian points to corruption as a problem that consumes means

needed for reformation (Heydarian 2017a:225).

89

Such an internal focus was to some degree allowed by the 1947 Military Base agreement and

the 1951 mutual defense treaty with the U.S., in which they guaranteed participation in

defensive wars and thereby provided the Philippines external security. Furthermore, the

expansion of the AFP’s non-military functions where aided by the U.S. in exchange for

participation in the Vietnam war (Timberman 1991: 45). Direct U.S. military assistance

accounted for up to 90% of AFP spending prior to the expiry of the Military Base Agreement

in 1991 (Chambers 2012: 152). Yet in 1994 clashes with China at the Mischief Reef prompted

the drafting of a visiting forces agreement with the U.S. under President and former general

Ramos in 1998 in a clear attempt at balancing. The agreement reaffirms the Mutual Defense

Treaty of 1951 and allows U.S. troops to stay in the Philippines (Governments of the USA

and PH 1998). After 2001 U.S. troops became a near permanent presence in Mindanao, to aid

the suppression of Islamist groups (Heydarian 2017b: 12-13). In 2012 a Chinese incursion on

Scarborough Shoal provoked further Philippine balancing measures most importantly an

arbitration under UNCLOS and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA)

signed 2014 (Eilperin 2014; Heydarian 2017b: 21). The EDCA allows the construction of

shared facilities by U.S. forces, effectively restoring much of the strategic capacity the U.S.

lost with the end of the Military Base Agreement and giving the AFP access to new

infrastructure (Heydarian 2017b: 21). “Even within the general headquarter of the Philippine

Armed Forces, there is a physical American presence… the U.S. can circumvent the

president.” (Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv).

Considering both the origin of the AFP in an American military tradition, the common wars,

and the importance of U.S. funds had in the AFP’s maintenance, it is perhaps no surprise that

there is a deep-seated allegiance to the U.S. alliance in the AFP (Interview Custodio 2017:

Brinkløv; Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv; Interview Acedillo 2017: Brinkløv). The AFP

have a longstanding tradition of using U.S. aid to balance internal and external threats.

Prominent members of the AFP, such as former President Fidel Ramos, have sought closer

relations with the U.S., and have used political clout to achieve them. The institutional

avenues and connections, that enable the military to do so are discussed next.

90

The Armed Forces of the Philippines as Political Entity

Another important development in Philippine politics that increased the institutional power

and presence of the military, was the development of the traditional clientelist relations the

parties maintained in to a predatory system centered in the presidency (Quimpo 2009).

Philippine elections had long known and still know violence, including killings and

paramilitary party organizations, and bribes as pressure strategies and even military

involvement (Quimpo 2009; Timberman 1991: 45; Igarashi 2008: 98), yet the Marcos years

presented some essential changes. Ferdinand Marcos, who had been president since 1965

announced martial law in 1972 and changed the constitution in 1973 in a bid to hold on to

power.

After declaring martial law Marcos ordered the purge of party-militias and replaced great

number of officials with active or retired military personnel (Chambers 2012: 145). In the

period from 1972 to 1986 the manpower of the military more than doubled and the police, fire

departments and other organizations came under military purview (Timberman 1991: 97).

Marcos did this to ensure the military would have a stake in his administration, as Alejano

puts it: “When you have the support of the armed forces, the opinion of the people doesn’t

matter. Because then you can control the people.” (Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv). The

AFP’s capacity for military action on the other hand suffered great damage as a function of

falling wages and deteriorating equipment, to a degree were insurgents both communist and

Muslim, put severe strain on it (Timberman 1991; Chambers 2012). The military turned from

an institution for organized large-scale conflict to one for social control. According to Paul

Chambers the experience of the Ferdinand Marcos government under martial law from 1972

to 1981 created an attitude in the Philippine armed forces that holds it is the rightful place of

the military to intervene in politics (2012). However, while higher ranking officers in Manila

profited and increased their power, the local, younger officer confronted with the insurgencies

grew increasingly discontent with their military impotence. Furthermore, Marcos had

empowered family within the military and created resistance among the higher ranks as well.

When the results of the snap elections held by Marcos in 1986 triggered the People Power

Revolution, the armed forces sided with Corazon Aquino and Marcos fled to the United

States. It is important to note that within the AFP the People Power Revolution was held to be

91

public support for a military coup, rather than the other way around. In the process of reforms

that followed the military was in a strengthened position, due to its support for the uprising.

Many military officers, who had served under Marcos, continued their careers in professional

politics, locally and nationally (Quilop 2010: 264,265; Chambers 2012; Abinales 2005: 36-

48; Timberman 1991: 152). The Philippine constitution re-written in 1987 attempted to wrest

control of the military from the presidency, by making the armed forces “protector of the

people” has ironically strengthened this tendency and may even have encouraged human

rights abuses, such as the continued extrajudicial killings and forced disappearances (Quilop

2010: 272-273). Under the new constitution the AFP’s preference for the president over the

congress has continued, Alejano argues the status of commander in chief results in a degree of

deference within the military, as long as the president is perceived to act within the

constitutional limitations (Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv).

This elevated prestige of the AFP was converted into political leverage, opening a Pandora’s

box of political “adventurism” (Quilop 2010: 268). AFP officers regularly withdrew support

of the president in attempted coups only to be subsequently pardoned and continue their

political careers. Colonel Gregorio Honasan for example failed in a 1987 coup attempt against

Corazon Aquino (Timberman 1991: 153). He was later pardoned by President and former

general Fidel Ramos, who had been Aquino’s secretary of national defense. After his pardon

Honasan went on to become senator and then challenged Ramos’ endorsed candidate Rodrigo

Duterte in the 2016 elections, only to chair several senate committees under Duterte,

including National Defense and Security.

The consequence of the of the strength and impunity with which AFP officers can act in

Philippine politics has been the formation of coalitions between military and party factions

(Chambers 2012: 156). The military faction provides security from coups, while the political

partners ensure congressional approval of promotions (Quilop 2010). Such a precarious

situation can force a government to make concessions on foreign policy as well. Alejano even

argues “Duterte needs the support of the armed forces because then he can disregard the

opinion of the people.” (Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv). Chambers claims that AFP

deployment in Iraq 1991 and Cambodia 1992 as U.S. allies, was approved by chief of staff

general Ramos, rather than president Corazon Aquino, who merely concurred (2012: 15).

92

Alejano, Acedillo and Custodio all argue the military has strong personal and institutional ties

to the U.S. (Interview Alejano 2017: Brinkløv; Interview Acedillo 2017: Brinkløv; Interview

Custodio 2017: Brinkløv). However, factions within the AFP share Duterte’s skepticism of

the U.S., the current spokesperson for the AFP for example reported the U.S. had blamed the

AFP for tensions in the WPS in the year of the Scarborough Shoal incident (Interview Alejano

2017: Brinkløv).

It can be said the AFP have developed effective tools to pressure the government within

certain policy areas and has secured a large degree of autonomy from civilian oversight

(Quilop 2010; Abinales 2005). Patricio Abinales contends it difficult for a Philippine

government to escape such pressure, unless it has its own military tie, as was the case with

Ramos (2012). Custodio argues the Philippine defense sector ignores Duterte’s statements as

long no explicit orders are sent from the Malacañang Palace (Interview Custodio 2017:

Brinkløv). He continues: “Duterte is feeling his way with the military. … the military played

along with Duterte, but they impose themselves when they see that it affects their interests.”

(Interview Custodio 2017: Brinkløv). In conjunction with the AFP’s preferences on foreign

policy, balancing and the U.S.-partnership, the military as intervening variable increases the

expectation of balancing behavior by the Philippines.

5.5.2) The Parties

This section argues that elite power and control of the state in the Philippines is channeled

through the party system. Thus, strong party backing increases the policy freedom of the

administration. However, dominance in the Philippine party system is not linked to the

congressional elections, but rather the presidential elections, as the presidency controls the

spoils of the state. Parties, except for the leftist Huk and Moro organizations, are found to be

based on personalistic ties and facilitate the commitment of pooled monetary and martial

resources in the electoral process and their extraction during government. While this

mechanism is an iteration of the traditional clientelist structure, reciprocity implied in

clientelism may no longer be given, even though it is rhetorically present (Quimpo 2009;

Kawanaka 2001; Thompson 2010). It is then suggested that the control of state resources and

electoral spoils combined with extractive priorities in elite politics result in severely

weakened congressional opposition. Thus, parties have been liked too criminal organizations,

93

and function as tools of repression for the presidency and extraction for participating elites

(Kawanaka 2001; Quimpo 2009). Core opposition may be found in strong personalities.

It is argued the Duterte administration has managed to capture the majority of congress due to

the weakness of party cohesion in the absence of access to electoral spoils and has made

efficient use of the parties and other means in repressing the strongest potential opposition

candidates.

The Traditional Party

The observation that the personalistic character of Philippine parties has been a defining

feature since the Spanish colonial period, has led to the popularity of the derogatory term

traditional political party or trapo (Quimpo 2009; Quimpo 2005; Thompson 2008). According

to Gene Pilapil political institutions influence actor behavior through rules incentives and

constraints (2006:94). Ultimately these sets of rules form both the strategic and time horizon

within which actors consider their positions and make decisions and thus change the

probability of certain outcomes. However, actors may also attempt to subvert institutional

rules (Pilapil 2006: 94). Pilapil argues that valuable insights into the behavior of the

Philippines in external arenas may be garnered from an analysis of political institutions (2006:

110). Yet, he criticizes the popular analysis of Philippine politics as neopatrimonial party

system and thereby the trapo concept (2006: 110). Further criticism of the debate on

“traditional politics” in the Philippines is offered by Reynaldo Ileto’s concern with

orientalism, that originated in the study of political parties during the U.S. colonial era (2001).

However, Philippine scholars have made recent use of the conceptualization of traditional

political parties as institutionalized forms of clientelist, patrimonial or corrupt networks of

power, in often critical studies (Quimpo 2005; Quimpo 2009; Quilop 2010; Panao 2014,

Raquiza 2014; Arugay 2005). This account of parties is consistent with the post-election party

switching behavior of incumbents and the corruption scandals that have surrounded the

Estrada administration (1998-2001) and the Arroyo administration (2001-2010) (Quimpo

2009: 342-343).

94

Trapos are characterized by the absence of strong political programs apart from permanent

conflicts that demand government responses, including the longstanding communist and

Islamist insurgencies and the territorial conflict with the People’s Republic of China. Political

parties have historically attempted to control all sectors of society, by integrating economic

elites and the military, and suppressing media and even the judiciary. This includes former

putschists, electoral competition, disgraced politicians and opposition leaders. In 2017 former

President Gloria Arroyo joined Duterte’s PDP-Laban leaving her Lakas-Christian-Muslim

Democrats (LCMD) without leadership (Yap 2017). Both allegations of avoiding the fallout

of her corruption scandals and possible conflict with Duterte over her opposition to the PDP’s

Death-Penalty Bill have been named as possible reasons (Cupin 2017). While parties in the

Philippines do have institutional histories and memories, such as the suppression of the left-

wing with U.S. support, the frequent party switching make party identity more dependent on

the leadership.

While the extent of the New Society Movement (KBL) during the dictatorship of Ferdinand

Marcos can be regarded as most extreme iteration in the history of the Philippines, the

modern-day system became visible after the presidency of Gloria Arroyo (2001-2010). While

Arroyo’s party was engaged in an economic reform program, that yielded stable and high

GDP growth it simultaneously gained control over state finances, that were used in

widespread corruption (Chambers 2012). In order to suppress opposition party militias and

government agencies were active under the veil of Human Security Act and the need to

counteract several coup attempts. After the end of her term Arroyo was accused of plundering

the state, involvement in illegal gambling, election rigging for the 2004 elections and 900

cases of extra-juridical killings and 180 disappearances among journalists and left-wing

activists were documented (Quimpo 2009: 346). These accusations resemble the charges

Estrada faced after his ouster in 2001. The functions of political parties in the Philippines can

thus be summarized as the concentration of power around the central institution of the

presidency, through legislation, party organization, co-optation of other movements, party

militias and a function as financial hub.

95

5.5.3) Duterte and Institutional Control

This section offers an overview of the new means, by which Duterte consolidates his political

hold. It finds Duterte has made effective use of violence and intimidation in addition to the

traditional means. This secures his foreign policy against international sanctions by stabilizing

his domestic position.

In 2016 Rodrigo Duterte won a landslide victory 39% and a distance of 6.5 million votes to

Leni Robredo of the liberal party (Inquirer 2016). Duterte’s Party the PDP-Laban on the other

hand won only 3 out of 293 seats in the house of representatives and none of the 24 seats in

the senate (Inquirer 2016; Rappler 2016b). The election was held on the ninth of May 2017

and already on the 18th of May 80 congressmen and women joined the PDP-Laban in an

ultimately successful bid to replace preferred speaker of the house (Cayabyab 2018). As of

May 2018, a total of 112 congressmen and women joined the PDP and 258 belong to the

coalition around the PDP. Furthermore 3 senators joined the PDP-Laban and 17 of the 24

Senators joined the coalition. While this may seem unusual in the context of the PDP-Laban’s

rhetorical emphasis on a distinct arty agenda, its right-wing position and the liberal majority,

that joined, it follows the historical practice in the Philippine party landscape (Timberman

1991).

However, Duterte’s expanding control in other institutions is not confined by the example of

previous administrations. Duterte has launched efforts to change the constitution (Corrales

2018a). The faction in the supreme court, favored by Duterte, succeeded in removing the

critical chief justice Maria Sereno and commentators are worried about the disintegration of

the division of power in the Philippines (Chikiamco 2018). Duterte had also ordered the fast-

tracking of Sereno’s impeachment in congress, after calling her his enemy, strengthening the

impression he requires personal loyalty, even where there should be none (Roxas 2018).

Furthermore, he has suspended an ombudsman in an anti-corruption investigation into

himself, despite a supreme court ruling, which denies the President the power to do so

(Esmaquel II 2018).

96

The police force has since Duterte’s inauguration been carrying out a brutal ‘War on Drugs’

and increased the state's’ capacity for repression. Duterte has publicly demanded the death of

addicts and dealers and admitted to having participated in death squad activities and promised

to protect and reward police officers who killed ‘drug personalities’ (Singh 2017). The police

own statistic, of December 2017 puts the number of killed at 3,967 and related homicides

under investigation at 16,355(Romero 2017b). Human Rights Watch puts the number of killed

at above 12,000 (HRW 2018). The distinction made by the police is disputed, because many

cases are pinned on unidentified gunmen or after the police had the victim in custody (Kine

2017; HRW 2017). The recording of the execution of a 17 year old by the police sparked

large protests in late 2017 and yet protests can be argued to have been muted, as fear spreads

(Villamor 2018). Duterte’s offensive also extends to opposition politicians he names in

speeches, including several majors, who were killed, one after he had surrendered himself

(Hincks 2017). The police’ accounts of operations resulting in deaths have been challenged by

senators Pangilinan, Trillanes, who has been charged with secession, and de Lima, who was

arrested on drug charges (Hincks 2017; Torres-Tupas 2017; Lema 2017).

97

6) Endnote In the analysis it is shown, that Philippine foreign politics in the Duterte era have been marked

by rapidly switching rhetoric towards both the PRC and the U.S.. Within the year 2018

Duterte has reversed his suspension of the ‘War on Drugs’, fired officials for corruption and

protected others from the same allegation. One day he proclaims China the nations protector

against external threats and the next he threatens war. Political elites and institutions show

highly complex interests and a willingness to cooperate with and oppose his foreign policy at

various junctions. The potluck character of the administration, makes it difficult to identify

stable political blocks. The historical novelty of Duterte’s willingness to offend the U.S.

increases the difficulty in determining the gravity of change, which has occurred. Considering

these obstacles any estimate of the consequences must be qualified. Duterte’s political habitus

disguises his motives for his ‘Independent Foreign Policy’. His behavior invokes the rhetoric

of Donald Trump and an increase in politics rooted in personalized narratives of reality, that

can be abused to shield authoritarian tendencies from public scrutiny, that can be seen in other

countries as well. Other approaches to International Studies may offer different

understandings of the phenomenon Duterte. Systemic realism, may offer an opportunity to

dodge the question of perception, but lack the insight the domestic side of politics provides. A

constructivist approach on the other hand may be able to untie the logic knots Duterte binds,

but miss the greater picture. The conclusion reached within the neoclassical realist framework

used here, may be limited by the number of variables considered necessary and the caveats of

the case. These reflections should guide further research on the topic.

98

7) Conclusion The following section sums up the conclusions of the thesis and answers the question that is

its point of departure. It begins by presenting the conclusions from the different sections of

the analysis and then goes on to compress the findings into a main conclusion.

The thesis has considered both systemic and domestic factors in the analysis. In the initial

phase of the analysis it is shown that the foreign policy of the Duterte administration is not the

direct effect of systemic pressures coming from the regional changes and the balance of

power between China and the U.S.. From a discussion of the systemic factors alone, a

balancing policy may be expected of the Philippine government in order to shield the country

from the territorial demands of the rising power with regional hegemonic ambitions, China.

In the first section it is concluded the Duterte administration can be described by the term

“potluck” government. Especially, the defense secretary and the military are shown to prefer

and promote a different foreign policy reliant on the traditional ties with the U.S.. Yet

Duterte’s personal control of the government, strong believes, and rhetoric in favor of closer

ties to China dominates the country’s political discourse. It is concluded these features of the

personal images of leading Filipino foreign policy makers are symptomatic of elite dissension

and cause Philippine foreign policy to be divided into incongruent rhetoric and practice.

In the second section on the strategic culture, it is concluded the Philippine elite traditionally

relied on the U.S. for security from external threats, and thus was free to focus their attention

on domestic politics. Consequently, it can be said the rhetorical foreign policy Manila

currently promotes goes against the grain of the established strategic culture. Following the

Cold War, the Philippines gained some distance to the U.S.. This trend was soon reversed by

renewed cooperation, because of the challenge posed to Philippine security by new Chinese

expansionism. While the reliance on the U.S. in the strategic thinking remains, Duterte has

invest much political capital into changing this culture and aligning segments of the elite with

his views. However, it remains to be seen if he can permanently change the strategic culture

and establish a new consensus, that is more trusting of China and less dependent on the U.S..

99

It is concluded that there is a lack of consensus on whether or not the long standing strategic

culture should be continued or be replaced with a shift towards China.

In the third section, it is concluded the relations between the Philippine state and society are

defined by the class structure. The upper class competes for control of the state in elections

and then uses the state as means for profit and suppression of the lower class. Due to recent

economic changes that reduce the importance of tenant farms and created massed urban poor,

populist appeal has become a viable alternative to the traditional clientelist competition in the

elections. Thus the upper class was divided into the traditionalist faction and the populist

faction in the 1990s. Duterte has developed the traditional and populist means of previous

government into a new, more authoritarian form of control, most radically expressed in his

“War on Drugs”. A policy that can be argued to reduce space for compromise. This has

weakened social mobilization against his unpopular foreign policy positions, as society

struggles with government sanctioned violence. Yet Duterte can be said to have been

pressured to seek U.S. assistance by popular sentiment during the Marawi crisis, when U.S.

troops played a key role. It is concluded there is a lack of consensus between the society and

the government on the foreign policy. But due to the strong preference of prioritizing

domestic issues, the government can discard the public opinion and conduct at policy of their

choice.

Finally, the institutional structure of the Philippines is concluded to promote the “potluck”

character of Philippine foreign policy and in the case of Duterte’s pro Chinese course change

a split between rhetoric and practice. It is shown, a stable government typically requires an

alliance of a strong leader, a political and a military faction. Due to the mutually dependent

nature of the internal relations in these coalitions, the military is in a good position to enforce

its foreign policy preferences where military matters are involved. The military’s institutional

preference for a U.S.-alliance, may have played a defining role in paralyzing Duterte’s efforts

to distance the Philippines from the U.S.. At the same time, the party system is focused on

domestic factors, and thus less influential in the realm of foreign policy and Duterte has

gained increasing control over other institutions. It can be concluded the dissensus on foreign

policy in the Philippines originates in the difference between Duterte’s vision and the defense

sector.

100

Considering these intervening variables, it is concluded Duterte’s non-traditional foreign

policy preferences clash with systemic necessities and established doctrine in the Philippines.

Duterte’s rhetoric is heard widely but many military practices of cooperation with the U.S.

continue nonetheless. Thus, a lack of consensus is found amongst actors in all four

intervening variables. Within the Duterte administration perceptions on the appropriate

responses to the Chinese advances diverges between Duterte’s cooperation and Lorenzana’s

balancing factions. The government rhetoric presents a radical break with the strategic

culture, which traditionally positions the Philippines in the strategical orbit of the U.S.. The

state represented by the Duterte government promotes a foreign policy ignoring the popular

distrust of China and the military makes use of its institutional role to pursue goals different

from those set out by the administration. As a result, neither the traditional balancing policy in

regards to China’s threatening behavior, nor the economic bandwagoning envisioned by

Duterte are fully implemented. Philippine policy is bound to non-balancing. Hence the lack of

consensus between Duterte and other foreign policy actors is concluded to have caused the

switch from balancing to non-balancing.

101

Sources

• Abinales, P.N. (2005): ‘Life after the Coup: The Military and Politics in Post-

Authoritarian Philippines’. Philippine Political Science Journal, 26(49), 27-62.

• Agence France-Presse (2018): ‘South China Sea - US Defense chief’. Inquirer.

Retrieved from: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/995585/us-to-keep-confronting-

beijing-in-south-china-sea-us-defense-chief 30/05/2018

• Albert, E. (2016): “The U.S.-Philippines Defense Alliance” Council of Foreign

Affairs. Retrieved from: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-philippines-defense-

alliance 20/05/2018

• Arugay, A.A. (2005): ‘The Accountability Deficit in the Philippines Implications

and Prospects for Democratic Consolidation’. Philippine Political Science Journal,

26(49), 63-88.

• ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (2016): Joint Communique of the 49th

ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, ‘TURNING VISION INTO REALITY FOR

A DYNAMIC ASEAN COMMUNITY’. ASEAN. Retrieved from:

http://asean.org/storage/2016/07/Joint-Communique-of-the-49th-AMM-

ADOPTED.pdf 20/05/2018

• ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (2017): Joint Communique of the 50th

ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, ‘PARTNERING FOR CHANGE,

ENGAGING THE WORLD’. ASEAN. Retrieved from:

http://asean.org/storage/2017/08/Joint-Communique-of-the-50th-

AMM_FINAL.pdf 20/05/2018

• Associated Press (2018): ‘China files trade complaint against US over steel

tariffs’. Associated Press. Retrieved from:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/10/china-files-trade-complaint-against-us-over-

steel-tariffs.html 31/05/18

• Ayson, R. and Pardesi, M.S. (2017): ‘Asia’s Diplomacy of Violence: China-US

Coercion and Regional Order’. Survival, 59(2), 85-124.

• Baviera, A. S. (2013): ‘Waltzing With Goliath: Philippines’ Engagement with

China in Uncharted Waters’ in Ang See, T. and Romana, C., Philippines-China

Relations - Sailing beyond Disputed Waters. Philippine Association for Chinese

Studies, Chinese Studies Journal 10.

• Beamer, G. (2002): ‘Elite interviews and State Politics Research’, State Politics

and Policy Quarterly, 2(1): 86-96

• Beeson, M. and Li, F. (2012): ‘Charmed or Alarmed? Reading China’s regional

relations’. Journal of Contemporary China, 21(73), 35-51.

• Bisley, N. (2011): ‘China’s Rise and the Making of East Asia’s Security

Architecture’. Journal of Contemporary China, 21(73), 19-34.

• Brinkløv, A. (2017): The Philippines Foreign Policy Balancing Between a Dragon

and an Eagle. Global Studies, Roskilde University.

102

• Bryman, A. (2012): Social Research: Methods, New York, Oxford University

Press

• Burgess, S.F. (2016): ‘Rising bipolarity in the South China Sea: the American

rebalance to Asia and China’s expansion’. Contemporary Security Policy, 37(1),

111-143.

• BusinessWorld (2018): ‘PHL as Chinese province ‘not too far’: ex-Chief Justice

Davide’. BusinessWorld. Retrieved from: http://bworldonline.com/phl-as-chinese-

province-not-too-far-ex-chief-justice-davide/ 31/05/2018

• Buszynski, L. (2012): ‘The South China Sea: Oil, Maritime Claims, and US-China

Strategic Rivalry’. The Washington Quarterly, 35(2), 139-156.

• Cahiles-Magkilat, B. (2018): ‘PH, China aim to balance bilateral trade in 3-4

years’ Manila Bulletin. Retrieved from:

https://business.mb.com.ph/2018/03/15/ph-china-aim-to-balance-bilateral-trade-in-

3-4-years/ 28.05.2018

• Cayabyab, M. J. (2016): ‘Alvarez bolsters Speaker bid with 80 lawmakers, 3-party

alliance’ Inquirer. Retrieved from: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/786352/alvarez-

bolsters-speaker-bid-with-80-lawmakers-3-party-alliance 14/05/2018

• Chacko, P. and Jayasuriya, K. (2017): ‘Trump, the authoritarian populist revolt

and the future of the rules-based order in Asia’. Australian Journal of International

Affairs, 71(2), 212-127.

• Chambers, P. (2012): ‘A Precarious Path: The Evolution of Civil-Military

Relations in the Philippines’. Asian Security, 8(2), 138-163.

• Chang-Liao, N. (2016): ‘China’s New Foreign Policy under Xi Jinping’. Asian

Security, 12(2), 82-91.

• Cheng, J. & Paladini, S. (2014): ‘China's ocean development strategy and its

handling of the territorial conflicts in the South China Sea’, Philippine Political

Science Journal, 35(2), pp. 185-202.

• Chikiamco, C. V. (2018): ‘Introspective’. BusinessWorld. Retrieved from:

http://bworldonline.com/another-edsa-2/ 30/05/2018

• Choong, W. (2017): ‘Trump and the Asia-Pacific: Managing Contradictions’.

Survival, 59(1), 181-187.

• Cook, M. (2017): ‘Ignoring the Curve: President Duterte’s First Year in Office’.

ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute. Retrieved from:

https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2017_44.pdf 24/05/18

• Cook, M. (2018): ‘The Philippines In 2017: Turbulent Consolidation’. Southeast

Asian Studies, 267-283.

• Corrales, N. (2018a): ‘Duterte names 19 Charter reviewers’ Inquirer. Retrieved

from: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/963569/duterte-names-19-members-of-

consultative-panel-to-review-charter 14/05/2018

• Corrales, N. (2018b): ‘Duterte: China ‘eating slowly’ our West PH Sea’ Inquirer.

Retrieved from: http://globalnation.inquirer.net/166988/duterte-china-eating-

slowly-west-ph-sea-duterte-west-ph-sea-china-sea-dispute-territorial-claims

30/05/2018

103

• Corrales, N. (2018c): ‘PH filed diplomatic protest vs China over WPS

militarization - Palace’. Inquirer. Retrieved from:

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/167380/palace-confirms-ph-diplomatic-protest-vs-

china-over-wps-militarization 31/05/18

• Cupin, B. (2017) ‘Former president Gloria Arroyo joins PDP-Laban’ Rappler.

Retrieved from: https://www.rappler.com/nation/184926-gloria-arroyo-pdp-laban

14/05/2018

• Curato, N. (2017): ‘Flirting with Authoritarian Fantasies? Rodrigo Duterte and the

New Terms of Philippine Populism’. Journal of Contemporary Asia, 47(1), 142-

153.

• de Castro, R.C. (2017): ‘The Duterte Administration's appeasement policy on

China and the crisis in the Philippine-US alliance’. Philippine Political Science

Journal, 1-23.

• del Rosario, A. (2017): Opening Address at the ASEAN Leadership Amid a New

World Order. ADRi Forum, Makati Shangri-La Hotel.

• Donilon, T. (2013): ‘Remarks by Tom Donilon, National Security Advisor to the

President: "The United States and the Asia-Pacific in 2013"’ The White House,

Office of the Press Secretary. Retrieved from:

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/03/11/remarks-tom-

donilon-national-security-advisor-president-united-states-an 20/05/2018

• Dunne, T. and Schmidt, B. (2008). ‘Realism’. In J. Baylis and S. Smith, ed., The

Globalization of World Politics, 2nd ed. New York: Oxford University Press Inc.,

pp.141-161.

• Duterte (2016): “FULL TEXT: President Duterte's 1st State of the Nation

Address”. Rappler. Retrieved from: https://www.rappler.com/nation/140860-

rodrigo-duterte-speech-sona-2016-philippines-full-text 29/05/18

• EIA (2013): ‘South China Sea’. US Energy Information Administration, Retrieved

from: https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-

topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=SCS 26/05/18

• Eilperin, J. (2014): ‘US, Philippines reach 10-year defense agreement amid rising

tensions’ The Washington Post. Retrieved from:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-philippines-to-sign-10-year-defense-

agreement-amid-rising-tensions/2014/04/27/a04436c0-cddf-11e3-a75e-

463587891b57_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.eab6354e4161 12/05/2018

• Esmaquel II, P. (2017): ‘Duterte on America: I’d rather be friendly with them

now’ Rappler. Retrieved from: https://www.rappler.com/nation/183720-duterte-

america-friendly-balangiga-encounter-day 11/05/18

• Esmaquel II, P. (2018): ‘Malacañang on Carandang: 'There is only one President'’.

Rappler. Retrieved from: https://www.rappler.com/nation/194999-malacanang-

carandang-suspension-order-president-duterte 30/05/2018

• Fiori, A., & Passeri, A. (2015): ‘Hedging in search of a new age of non-alignment:

Myanmar between China and the USA’. The Pacific Review, 28(5), pp. 679-702.

104

• Flockhart, T. (2016): ‘The coming multi-order world’. Contemporary Security

Policy, 37(1), 3-30.

• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations -no date available-

“FACT SHEET PHILIPPINES, Women in Agriculture, Environment and Rural

Production” FAO Retrieved from

http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/ae946e/ae946e00.htm#Contents 23/05/2018

• Fravel, M. T. (2010): ‘International Relations Theory and China’s Rise: Assessing

China’s Potential for Territorial Expansion’, International Studies Review, 12, pp.

505-532.

• Friedberg, A.L. (2015): ‘The Debate Over US China Strategy’. Survival, 57(3),

89-110.

• Galang, M. A. (2017): ‘US, China, and Duterte’s ‘Independent Foreign Policy’.

The Diplomat. Retrieved from: https://thediplomat.com/2017/04/us-china-and-

dutertes-independent-foreign-policy/ 24/05/18

• Geducos, A. C. (2018): ‘China assures it will protect PH - Duterte’. Manila

Bulletin. Retrieved from: https://news.mb.com.ph/2018/05/05/china-assuresit-will-

protect-ph-duterte/ 31/05/2018

• GFP (2017): ‘Comparison Results of World Military Strengths’. Global Fire

Power. Retrieved from: https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-

comparison.asp 23/05/18

• GFP (2018): ‘2018 China Military Strength - Current military capabilities and

available firepower for the nation of China’. Global Fire Power. Retrieved from:

https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-

detail.asp?country_id=china 31/05/18

• Go, J.R.R. (2017): ‘Of choices, change, and challenges: the Philippines in 2016’.

Philippine Political Science Journal, 38(1), 48-73.

• Goh, E. (2005): Meeting the China Challenge: The US in Southeast Asian

Regional Security Strategies (Washington, DC: East-West Center)

• Goh, E. (2016): ‘Southeast Asian Strategies towards the Great Powers: Still

Hedging after All These Years?’ Special Forum, TheAsanForum. Retrieved from:

http://www.theasanforum.org/southeast-asian-strategies-toward-the-great-powers-

still-hedging-after-all-these-years/ 27/05/18

• Goldstein, A. (2007): ‘Power transitions, institutions, and China’s rise in East

Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence’. Journal of Strategic Studies, 30(4),

639-682.

• Governments of the USA and PH (1998): The United States of America; The

Philippines 09.10.1998 Agreement Between the Government of the United States

of America and the Government of the Republic of the Philippines Regarding the

Treatment of United States Armed Forces Visiting the Philippines. Retrieved from:

https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/107852.pdf 20/05/2018

• Governments of the USA and PH (1987) Agreement Between the Government of

the United States of America and the Government of the Republic of the

105

Philippines Regarding the Treatment of United States Armed Forces Visiting the

Philippines

• Haas, E. B. (1964): Beyond the Nation State: Functionalism and International

Organizations, Stanford University Press

• Heggins, A. (2012): ‘In Philippines, banana growers feel effect of South China Sea

dispute’. The Washington Post. Retrieved from:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-philippines-banana-

growers-feel-effect-of-south-china-sea-

dispute/2012/06/10/gJQA47WVTV_story.html?utm_term=.d137d4f33c05

31/05/18

• Heydarian, R. J. (2016a): ‘The US-Philippine-China Triangle: from equi-balancing

to counter-balancing amid the South China Sea disputes’. In: Power Politics in

Asia’s Contested Waters (pp. 337-357). Springer International Publishing.

• Heydarian, R. J. (2016b): Asia’s New Battlefield – The USA, China and the

Struggle for the Western Pacific, London: Anvil Publishing, INC

• Heydarian, R. J. (2017a): ‘Tragedy of Small Power Politics: Duterte and the

Shifting Sands of Philippine Foreign Policy’. Asian Security, 13(3), 220-236.

• Heydarian, R. J. (2017b): Duterte’s First Year In Office: Assessing the Balance

Sheet, Manila: ADR Publications.

• Hill, C. (2003): The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy. Basingstoke and New

York, Palgrave Macmillan.

• Hincks, J. (2017): ‘Another Philippine Mayor Accused of Drug Ties Has Been

Killed in a Police Raid’. Time. Retrieved from:

http://time.com/4880155/philippines-rodrigo-duterte-mayor-killed-drugs/

30/05/2018

• HRW (2017): ‘Philippines: Police Deceit in ‘Drug War’ Killings’. Human Rights

Watch. Retrieved from: https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/03/02/philippines-police-

deceit-drug-war-killings 30/05/2018

• HRW (2018): ‘Philippines: Duterte’s ‘Drug War’ Claims 12,000+ Lives’. Human

Rights Watch. Retrieved from: https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/01/18/philippines-

dutertes-drug-war-claims-12000-lives 30/05/2018

• Huang, E. (2017): ‘China’s Master PLAN: How Beijing Wants to Break Free of

the ‘Island Chains’’. The National Interest. Retrieved from:

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/chinas-master-plan-how-beijing-wants-

break-free-the-island-20746 31/05/18

• Huxley, T. and Schreer, B. (2017): ‘Trump’s Missing Asia Strategy’. Survival,

59(3), 81-89.

• Igarashi, S. (2008): ‘The Dilemma of Democratic Consolidation in the Philippines:

The Contested Role of Civic Organizations in Electoral Governance’. Philippine

Political Science Journal, 29(52), 79-116.

• Ilagan, K. and Mangahas, M. (2016): ‘13 donors raised P334M for Duterte

campaign fund — PCIJ’ Inquirer. Retrieved from:

106

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/851212/13-donors-raised-p334m-for-duterte-

campaign-fund-pcij 19/05/2018

• Ileto, R. C. (2001): ‘Orientalism and the Study of Philippine Politics’. Philippine

Political Science Journal, 22(45), 1-32.

• Inquirer (2016): ‘VOTE PH 2016’. Inquirer. Retrieved from:

http://www.inquirer.net/elections2016 14/05/2018

• Inquirer (2017): ‘Mayor or President?’. Inquirer. Retrieved from:

http://opinion.inquirer.net/105232/mayor-or-president 20/05/18

• Iokibe, M. and Minohara, T. (2017): The history of US-Japan relations, from Perry

to the present. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan

• Jerdén, B. (2016): ‘Waiting for the rising power China’s rise in East Asia and the

evolution of great power politics‘. Stockholm Studies in Politics, 168

• Katigbak, J. (2018): ‘US ‘disinvites’ China to Pacific Rim military exercises’. The

Philippine Star. Retrieved from:

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/05/25/1818468/us-disinvites-china-

pacific-rim-military-exercises#7DuEVpWK2ym1H2bz.99 31/05/2018

• Kawanaka, T. (2001): ‘The State and Institutions in Philippine Local Politics’.

Philippine Political Science Journal, 22(45), 135-148.

• Kim, B. and Vogel, E. F. (2011): The Park Chung Hee Era, The Transformation of

South Korea. Harvard University Press

• Kine, P. (2017): ‘Rodrigo Duterte relaunches Philippine drug war despite calls for

investigation’. The Conversation. Retrieved from:

https://theconversation.com/rodrigo-duterte-relaunches-philippine-drug-war-

despite-calls-for-investigation-74584 30/05/2018

• Kuik, CC. (2008): ‘The Essence of Hedging: Malaysia and Singapore’s Response

to a Rising China’. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 30(2), 159-185.

• Kuik, CC. (2016): ‘How do Weaker States Hedge? Unpacking ASEAN states’

alignment behavior towards China’. Journal of Contemporary China, 25(100),

500-514.

• Lamb, K, (2017): ‘Thousands dead: the Philippine president, the death squad

allegations and a brutal drugs war’. The Guardian. Retrieved from:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/02/philippines-president-duterte-

drugs-war-death-squads 24/05/18

• Lampton, D.M. (2016): ‘China: Challenger or Challenged?’. The Washington

Quarterly, 39(3), 107-119.

• Ledesma, J. (2017): ‘Ledesma: Peddlers of fear’ SunStar. Retrieved from:

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/145182/Ledesma-Peddlers-of-fear 12/05/2018

• Lema, K. (2017): ‘Opponent of Duterte's drugs war arrested in Philippines on drug

charges’. Reuters. Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-

drugs-senator/opponent-of-dutertes-drugs-war-arrested-in-philippines-on-drug-

charges-idUSKBN16301Z 30/05/2018

• Liou, R. Y. L., and Hsu, P. S. C. (2017): ‘The Effectiveness of Minor Powers’

Hedging Strategy: Comparing Singapore and the Philippines’. Unpublished.

107

• Lushenko, P. and Hardy, J. (2016): ‘China, the United States, and the Future of

Regional Security Order - An Unhappy Coexistence’. Asian Security,12(1), 1-28.

• Löfflmann, G. (2016): ‘The Pivot between Containment, Engagement, and

Restraint: President Obama’s Conflicted Grand Strategy in Asia’. Asian Security,

12(2), 92-110.

• M2 Press Wire (2000): ‘ADB: Asia continues to be world's fastest growing

region’, ProQuest Coventry, 26 Apr. 2000: 1

• Macas, T. (2016): ‘Duterte says anonymous Chinese donor partially paid for initial

pol ads’. GMA News. Retrieved from:

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/558539/duterte-says-anonymous-

chinese-donor-partially-paid-for-initial-pol-ads/story/ 31/05/2018

• Marx, K. (2009): Das Kapital: Kritik der politischen Ökonomie. Anaconda

• Mathison, S. (1988): ‘Why Triangulate?’ Educational Researcher, 17(2), pp. 13-

17.

• McDougall, D. (2012): ‘Responses to ‘Rising China’ in the East Asian Region:

soft balancing with accommodation’. Journal of Contemporary China, 21(73), 1-

17.

• McKirdy, E. and Berlinger, J. (2017): ‘Philippines’ Duterte declares liberation of

Marawi from ISIS-affiliated militants’. CNN. Retrieved from:

https://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/17/asia/duterte-marawi-liberation/index.html

31/05/2018

• Mearsheimer, J.J. (2018): Interview with Mearsheimer after lecture on: ‘Vil et

styrker Kina true verdensfreden?’ Københavns Universitet. 12.04.2018

• Mendez, C. (2018): ‘Duterte doubts US readiness to defend Philippines vs

extremists’ The Philippine Star. Retrieved from:

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/05/26/1818778/duterte-doubts-us-

readiness-defend-philippines-vs-extremists#bq3PH4gxYQmuoDPO.99 28/05/2018

• Merez, A. (2017): ‘Duterte’s ‘independent’ foreign policy: A move to diversity

allies’. ABS-CBN News. Retrieved from: http://news.abs-

cbn.com/news/06/30/17/dutertes-independent-foreign-policy-a-move-to-diversify-

allies 24/05/18

• Misalucha, C.G. and Amador III, J.S (2016): ‘US-Philippines Security Ties:

Building New Foundations?’. Asian Politics & Policy, 8(1), 51-61.

• Morffit, B (2016): The global rise of populism: performance, political style, and

representation. Palo Alto: Stanford University Press.

• Murphy, A.M. (2017): ‘Great Power Rivalries, Domestic Politics and Southeast

Asian Foreign Policy: Exploring the Linkages’. Asian Security, 13(3), 165-182.

• Oba, M. (2016): ‘ASEAN’s Hedging Strategy’ The Diplomat. Retrieved from:

https://thediplomat.com/2016/09/aseans-hedging-strategy/ 24/05/18

• Panao, R. A. L. (2014): ‘Beyond roll call: executive-legislative relations and

lawmaking in the Philippines House of Representatives’. Philippine Political

Science Journal 35(1), 59-77.

108

• Parameswaran, P. (2017): ‘How Much Can the Philippines Boost Its Military

Budget Under Duterte?’. The Diplomat. Retrieved from:

https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/how-much-can-the-philippines-boost-its-military-

budget-under-duterte/ 24/05/18

• Pejsova, E. (2016): ‘Introduction: light at the end of the tunnel?’ in Pejsove et al.

Sense and sensibility – Addressing the South China. ISSUE Report 28, May.

• Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (2017): The Philippines Foreign Policy.

DFA. Retrieved from: https://www.dfa.gov.ph/about/phl-foreign-policy 24/05/18

• Philippine Government 2017: ‘Duterte Nomics’ Philippine Government. Retrieved

from: http://www.build.gov.ph/ 14/05/18

• Philippine Statistics Authority (2017): ‘Highlights of Foreign Trade Statistics of

the Philippines: First Semester 2017’ Philippine Statistics Authority. Retrieved

from: https://psa.gov.ph/content/highlights-foreign-trade-statistics-philippines-

first-semester-2017 24/05/18

• Pilapil, G.L. (2006): ‘Some Arguments for an Institutional Approach to Philippine

Politics’. Philippine Political Science Journal, 27(50), 89-124.

• Placido, D. (2018): ‘Duterte: What’s the point of questioning Chinese planes?’.

ABS-CBN News. Retrieved from: http://news.abs-

cbn.com/business/05/29/18/cryptocurrency-addicts-seek-treatment-at-scottish-

clinic 30/05/2018

• Pollack, J. D. (2015): ‘Is Xi Jinping Rethinking Korean Unification?’. Brookings.

Retrieved from: https://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/is-xi-jinping-rethinking-

korean-unification/ 31/05/18

• Pulse Asia (2017): ‘March 2017 Nationwide Survey on the Trust Ratings of

Selected Countries and International/Regional Organizations’. Pulse Asia

Research.

• Pulse Asia (2016): ‘Pulse Asia Date on Filipinos’ Views on Foreign Policy’. Pulse

Asia Research. Retrieved from: http://www.pulseasia.ph/pulse-asia-data-on-

filipinos-views-on-foreign-policy/ 24/05/18

• Quilop, R. J. G. (2010): ‘Keeping the Philippine military out of politics:

Challenges and Prospects’ in Kasuya, Y. and Quimpo, N. G., The Politics of

Change in the Philippines. Pasig City, Anvil Publishing

• Quimpo, N. G. (2005): ‘The left, elections, and the political party system in the

Philippines’. Critical Asian Studies, 37(1), 3-28.

• Quimpo, N. G. (2009): ‘The Philippines: predatory regime, growing authoritarian

features’. The Pacific Review, 22(3), 335-353.

• Rabeba, A. J. (2016b): ‘Rebalancing Philippine foreign policy’ Eastasianforum.

Retrieved from: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/11/24/rebalancing-philippine-

foreign-policy/ 23/05/18

• Raine, S. and Le Mière, C. (2017): Regional Disorder: The South China Sea

Dispute. London, Routledge.

• Ramos 09.10.2017 https://www.ft.com/content/3d1fc8ca-acc0-11e7-aab9-

abaa44b1e130

109

• Rappler (2016a): ‘Timeline: The Philippines-China maritime dispute’. Rappler

Retrieved from: https://www.rappler.com/world/regions/asia-pacific/139392-

timeline-west-philippine-sea-dispute 12/05/18

• Rappler (2016b): ‘PH Vote 2016 Official Election Results’ Rappler. Retrieved

from: https://ph.rappler.com/elections/2016/results/official 14/05/2018

• Rappler (2016c): ‘FULL TEXT: Supreme Court's decision on EDCA’. Rappler.

Retrieved from: https://www.rappler.com/nation/119210-full-text-supreme-court-

decision-edca 24/05/18

• Raquiza, A. R. (2014): ‘Changing configuration of Philippine capitalism’

Philippine Political Science Journal 35(2), 225-250.

• Reuters (2016): ‘Ex-Philippine president Ramos says Duterte government a

'letdown'’ Reuters. Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-

duterte-ramos/ex-philippine-president-ramos-says-duterte-government-a-letdown-

idUSKCN12A0EP 19/05/2018

• Reuters (2018): ‘Philippine Catholics protest drug killings, death penalty’. Reuters.

Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-drugs-

church/philippine-catholics-protest-drug-killings-death-penalty-idUSKCN1G80B6

24/05/2018

• Reuters (2018b): ‘China air force lands bombers on South China Sea islands’.

ABS-CBN News. Retrieved from: http://news.abs-

cbn.com/overseas/05/19/18/china-air-force-lands-bombers-on-south-china-sea-

islands 30/05/2018

• Revita, J. C. (2016): ‘Duterte confirms Ramos resignation as special envoy to

China’ SunStar. Retrieved from:

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/107523/Duterte-confirms-Ramos-resignation-

as-special-envoy-to-China 12/05/2018

• Ripsman, N., Taliaferro, Jeffrey W, & Lobell, Steven E. (2016): Neoclassical

realist theory of international politics. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.

• Roach, S. (2015): ‘The US and China is trapped in a web of economic co-

dependency’. Business Insider. Retrieved from:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-and-china-are-trapped-in-a-web-of-

economic-co-dependency-2015-9?r=US&IR=T&IR=T 28/05/18

• Romero, A. (2017b): ‘Duterte gov't probing over 16,000 drug war-linked deaths as

homicide, not EJK’. The Philippine Star. Retrieved from:

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/12/26/1771944/duterte-govt-probing-

over-16000-drug-war-linked-deaths-homicide-not-ejk 30/05/2018

• Romero, V. J. (2017): ‘Independent foreign policy defined’. The Manila Times.

Retrieved from: http://www.manilatimes.net/independent-foreign-policy-

defined/334520/ 17/05/18

• Rose, G. (1998): Neoclassical realism and theories of foreign policy. World

Politics, 51(1), pp. 144-172.

• Rosenau (1984): ‘A Pre-Theory Revisited: World Politics in an Era of Cascading

Interdependence’. International Studies Quarterly, 28(3), 245-305.

110

• Ross, R.S. (2006): ‘Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China:

Accommodating and Balancing in East Asia’. Security Studies, 15(3), 355-395.

• Roxas, P. A. (2018): ‘Pimentel brushes off accusation that Duterte meddled in case

vs Sereno’ Retrieved from: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/981493/pimentel-brushes-

off-accusation-that-duterte-meddled-in-case-vs-sereno#ixzz5GzPX2SeU

30/05/2018

• Rustandi, C.A. (2016): ‘The South China Sea Dispute: Opportunities for ASEAN

to enhance its policies in order to achieve resolution’. Centre for Defence and

Strategic Studies. Retrieved from:

http://www.defence.gov.au/ADC/Publications/IndoPac/Rustandi_IPSP.pdf

26/05/18

• Singh, P. (2017): ‘Smokescreen Justice for ‘Drug War’ Deaths in the Philippines’.

Human Rights Watch. Retrieved from:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/12/07/smokescreen-justice-drug-war-deaths-

philippines 30/05/2018

• Social Weather Station (2017a): ‘First Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey: Net

satisfaction rating of the Duterte National Administration declines to “Very Good”

+58’. Social Weather Station. Retrieved from:

https://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-

20180510224642 24/05/18

• Rowley, A. (2018): ‘Remittances remain crucial to Philippines economy’ The

National. Retrieved from: https://www.thenational.ae/business/remittances-

remain-crucial-to-philippines-economy-1.666517 28.05.2018

• Social Weather Station (2017b): ‘First Quarter 2017 Social Weather Survey: Net

trust in Rody Duterte stays Excellent at +70’. Social Weather Station. Retrieved

from: https://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-

20170506182359 24/05/18

• Schweller, R (2006): Unanswered Threats. Political Constraints on the Balance of

Power. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

• Stavridis, S. and Hill, C. (1996): Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy - West

European Reactions to the Falklands Conflict. Oxford, Berg Publishers Limited.

• Strategic Comments (2016a): ‘The Philippines: Duterte’s wilful start’, Strategic

Comments, 22(8), v-vii

• Strategic Comments (2016): ‘Philippines-China dispute: a sign of a regional shift’.

Strategic Comments, 20(4), iii-iv.

• Taffer, A. (2014): ‘No Longer the Status Quo? - Changes in China’s Approach to

Territorial Conflict’, Yale Journal of International Affairs, 9(107), pp. 107-109

• Talabong, R. (2017): ‘PNP suspends Oplan Double Barrel, again’. Rappler.

Retrieved from: https://www.rappler.com/nation/185030-pnp-suspends-project-

double-barrel-again 24/05/18

• Tang, S. (2009): ‘Taking Stock of Neoclassical Realism’. International Studies

Review, 11(4), 799-803.

111

• The Philippines’ Constitution (1987): ‘THE 1987 CONSTITUTION OF THE

REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES’ Human Rights Library, University of

Minnesota. Retrieved from:

http://hrlibrary.umn.edu/research/Philippines/PHILIPPINE%20CONSTITUTION.

pdf 20/05/18

• Thompson, M.R. (2008): ‘Philippine Politics and Governance’. Philippine Political

Science Journal, 29(52), 117-124.

• Thompson, M.R. (2010): ‘After populism: Winning the ‘war’ for bourgeois

democracy in the Philippines’ in Kasuya, Y. and Quimpo, N. G., The Politics of

Change in the Philippines. Pasig City, Anvil Publishing

• Thompson, M.R. (2014): ‘The Politics Philippine Presidents Make’. Critical Asian

Studies, 46(3), 433-460.

• Timberman, D.G (1991): A Changeless Land - Continuity and Change in

Philippine Politics. New York and Singapore, M.E. Sharpe Inc and Institute of

Southeast Asian Studies.

• Torres-Tupas, T. (2017): ‘Lawyers file sedition charges vs Trillanes for

‘provoking military to shoot Duterte’. Inquirer. Retrieved from:

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/945611/lawyers-file-sedition-charges-vs-trillanes-for-

provoking-military-to-shoot-duterte-trillanes-duterte-m-60-machine-gun-hidden-

wealth-military 30/05/2018

• Congress of the Republic of the Philippines (2014): ‘Frequently Asked Questions

(FAQs) on the ENHANCED DEFENSE COOPERATION AGREEMENT 28

April 2014’. Department of National Defence Philippines. Retrieved from:

http://www.dnd.gov.ph/pdf/EDCA%20FAQs%20(as%20of%2025April2014)%20

v3%20(1)%20(1).pdf 20/05/18

• U.S. Department of State (2011): ‘Signing of the Manila Declaration On Board the

USS Fitzgerald in Manila Bay, Manila, Philippines’. U.S. Department of State.

Retrieved from: https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2011/11/177226.htm

25/05/18

• U.S. Department of State (2016): ‘Sixth United States-Philippines Bilateral

Strategic Dialogue Joint Statement’. U.S. Department of State. Retrieved from:

https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/03/254833.htm 20/05/18

• U.S. Department of State (2017) ‘Joint Press Statement: U.S.-Philippines Bilateral

Strategic Dialogue 2017’. U.S. Department of State. Retrieved from:

https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/12/276161.htm 20/05/18

• Villamore, F. (2018): ‘3 Philippine Officers Charged in a Killing That Spurred

Outrage’. The New York Times. Retrieved from:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/29/world/asia/philippines-drug-crackdown-

kian-loyd-delos-santos.html 30/05/2018

• Viray, P. L. (2017a): ‘Shifting tactics: China advances 'four sha' claim in South

China Sea’. The Philippine Star. Retrieved from:

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/09/27/1742870/shifting-tactics-china-

advances-four-sha-claim-south-china-sea 25/05/18

112

• Viray, P. L. (2017b): ‘A year of walking with China’. The Philippine Star.

Retrieved from: http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/07/05/1716362/year-

walking-china 21/05/2018

• Viray, P. L. (2017c): ‘Duterte finds no urgency in South China Sea row’. The

Philippine Star. Retrieved from:

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/10/20/1750715/duterte-finds-no-

urgency-south-china-sea-row?nomobile=1 25/05/2018

• Viray, P. L. (2018a): ‘Did we lose an island to China? Behind Cayetano's

condition for resignation’. The Philippine Star. Retrieved from:

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/05/29/1819724/did-we-lose-island-

china-behind-cayetanos-condition-resignation#z0B0gpg06UiCfAjq.99 31/05/2018

• Viray, P. L. (2018b): ‘Philippines lost Sandy Cay to China, Alejano tells

Cayetano’. The Philippine Star. Retrieved from:

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/05/29/1819752/philippines-lost-sandy-

cay-china-alejano-tells-cayetano 31/05/2018

• Viray, P. L. (2018c): ‘Philippines, China draw ‘red lines’ in South China Sea

dispute’. The Philippine Star. Retrieved from:

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/05/29/1819745/philippines-china-draw-

red-lines-south-china-sea-dispute 30/05/2018

• Viray, P. L. (2018d): ‘Duterte: China has assured me it will not allow Philippines

to be destroyed’. The Philippine Star. Retrieved from:

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/05/15/1815479/duterte-china-has-

assured-me-it-will-not-allow-philippines-be-destroyed 30/05/18

• Woody, C. (2017): ‘Filipinos trust Rodrigo Duterte - even if they don't like many

of his policies’. Business Insider Nordic, Retrieved from:

http://nordic.businessinsider.com/filipinos-trust-rodrigo-duterte-but-dont-agree-

with-all-his-policies-2017-5 23/05/18

• World Economic Forum (2017): ‘The world’s 10 biggest economies in 2017’.

World Economic Forum. Retrieved from:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017/

05/04/18

• White, H. (2017): ‘Trump Pushes Australia Toward China’ The New York Times.

Retrieved from: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/09/opinion/trump-pushes-

australia-toward-china.html 20/05/2018

• Yap, D. J. (2017): ‘Arroyo, 2 of her former Cabinet members join PDP-Laban’

Inquirer. Retrieved from: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/937166/gloria-macapagal-

arroyo-arthur-yap-nasser-pangandaman-pdp-laban 13/05/2018

• Yu, H. (2017): ‘Motivations behind China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ Initiatives and

Establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’. Journal of

Contemporary China, 26(105), 353-368.

• Zhao, H. (2012): ‘Sino-Philippines Relations: Moving Beyond South China Sea

Dispute?’ The Journal of East Asian Affairs 26(2) pp. 57-76

113

• Zhao, S. (2015): ‘A New Model of Big Power Relations? China-US strategic

rivalry and balance of power in the Asia-Pacific’. Journal of Contemporary China,

24(93), 377-397.

Interviews:

• Acedillo 2017: Brinkløv - Francisco A. Acedillo, former representative of the

Magdalo Partylist and former Air Force Pilot

• Alejano 2017: Brinkløv - Gary Alejano, Representative of the Magdalo Partylist

and former Marine Officer

• Anonymous Philippine Advisor 2017: Brinkløv - Confidential

• Batongbacal 2017: Brinkløv - Professor Jay L. Batongbacal, Director of the

University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea

• Baviera 2017: Brinkløv - Professor Aileen Baviera, University of the Philippines

Diliman

• Carpio 2017: Brinkløv - Antonio Carpio, Supreme Justices of the Philippines

• Custodio 2017: Brinkløv - Jose A. Custodio, Defense strategy analyst, Institute for

Policy, Strategy and Developmental Studies INC.

• Dureza 2017: Brinkløv - Jesus G. Dureza, Presidential Peace Advisor

• Emmers 2017: Brinkløv - Doctor Ralf Emmers, Professor of International

Relations and Associate Dean, RSIS; Head of Centre for Multilateralism Studies

• High ranking member of government 2017: Brinkløv - Confidential

• High ranking U.S. Embassy officer 2017: Brinkløv - Confidential

• Manhit 2017: Brinkløv - Victor A. Manhit, President Stratbase and ADR Institute

• Rabena 2017: Brinkløv - Aaron J. Rabena, Program Convenor at Asia-Pacific

Pathways to Progress, Associate Fellow at Philippine Council for Foreign

Relations (PCFR), and Resident Fellow at Ateneo Teehankee Center for the Rule

of Law.