A Search for the New Knowledge Economy Establishing a Baseline: The Economy Today… and Tomorrow ...
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A Search for the New Knowledge Economy
• Establishing a Baseline: The Economy Today…and Tomorrow
• When they Vote with their Feet, where do they go?
• A New Entrepreneurship Index
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What about the Great American
Bread Machine?
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United
Stat
esBraz
il
Bangla
desh
Russia
Mexico
Vietna
m
German
y
Turkey
Congo
(Kins
hasa
)
France Ita
ly
South
Africa
Spain
Colombia
Tanza
nia
Kenya
Algeria
Ugand
aPeru
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
2010 Population, Top 40 Countries, absent China & India
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1980
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1991
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1995
1996
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1999
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2004
2005
2006
2007
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Share of U.S. Families with annual Income equal to or greater than $75,000Constant 2006 Dollars
Perc
enta
ge o
f all
Fam
ilies
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1940
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2004
2006
2008
2010
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000Federal Register Pages: 1940-2010
Source: Crews (2010, 38).
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1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
-36.00%
-33.00%
-30.00%
-27.00%
-24.00%
-21.00%
-18.00%
-15.00%
-12.00%
-9.00%
-6.00%
-3.00%
0.00%
3.00%
6.00%
9.00%
Federal Deficit as Percent of GDP1930-2009
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U.S. 8.9% Alabama 9.3% Huntsville 8.2%
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DateJu
l-91
Feb-92
Sep-92
Apr-93
Nov-93
Jun-9
4
Jan-9
5
Aug-95
Mar-96
Oct-96
May-97
Dec-97
Jul-9
8
Feb-99
Sep-99
Apr-00
Nov-00
01M6
2-Jan
2-Aug
3-Mar
3-Oct
4-May
4-Dec
5-Jul6-F
eb6-S
ep7-A
pr7-N
ov8-J
un9-J
an9-S
ep
10-A
pr
10-N
ov105000
110000
115000
120000
125000
130000
135000
140000
145000
150000
Total Employed, 16 and Over, Seasonally AdjustedHousehold Survey, with Trend
1/1991 - 3/2011
Thou
sand
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Housing Starts Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Millions
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Housing Starts: Aug @ 598K
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
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2001
q1
2001
q3
2002
q1
2002
q3
2003
q1
2003
q3
2004
q1
2004
q3
2005
q1
2005
q3
2006
q1
2006
q3
2007
q1
2007
q3
2008
q1
2008
q3
2009
q1
2009
q3
2010
q1
2010
q3
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0Real GDP Growth, 2000-2010
with 4-quarter moving average
Growth
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Organization Date 2011FRB 11/2010 3.0-3.6
NBE 11/2010 3.2
Wachovia 12/2010 2.5
BOA 12/2010 2.0-2.5
Economy.com 12/2010 3.8
Kiplinger 12/2010 3.5
CBO 1/2011 3.1
Bank of America 1/2011 3.1
Wachovia 2/2011 3.2
Economist Mag. 3/2011 3.3
GDP Forecast, 2011
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TWO KEY U.S. INDICATORS
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National Mortgage Delinquencies, 1Q2010, 90+ Days
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15
Unemployment RateDecember 2010
Greater than 12.5%10.0% to 12.5%8.0% to 10.0%
6.0% to 8.0%Less than 6.0%
County Unemployment Rate
Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
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I wonder what’s going on inside the
Huntsville economy.
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Huntsville MSA, Per Capita Income, % of U.S., 1969-2008
Huntsville MSA, Per Capita Real GDP, % of U.S. Metro, 2001-2009
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Mining/Logging Const 4%Mfg.11%
Trade, Trans, Util
14%
Info.1%
Finance
3%
Prof. Bus. Svcs.23%
Educ/Health8%
Liesure/Hosp.8%
Other Svcs.4%
Government24%
Huntsville/Madison AL MSA Sectors, 2010
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Mining/Logging1%
Construct4%
Mfg.9% Trade, Trans,
Util19%
Info.2%
Finance6%
Prof. Bus. Svcs.13%
Educ/Health15%
Liesure/Hospitality
10%
Other Svcs.4%
Govern
ment17%
U.S. Employment Sectors, 2010
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What of the next two Years???
Alabama?Huntsville?
U.S.?
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December 2007
April 2011
June 2009
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Voting with their Feet
Voting with their Feet
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When voting with their feet.
Where do the brains head?
Toward freedom? security?
•
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NET 1995-2000 INTERNAL MIGRATION OF PEOPLE WHO WERE 25-39, SINGLE & COLLEGE EDUCATED
PERCENT OF 2000 POPULATION
L A
ID
A Z
U T
M T
W Y
N M
C O
A L
F L
S C
T N
K Y
INO H
N C
S D
K S
N E
M N
W I
IA
IL
M O
A R
M S
O K
N D
O R
C A N V
W A
T X
M I
G A
A K
H I
P A
ME
N Y
C T
W V
D E
M D
N J
V TN H
M A
R I
0 .0 9 % p lus
0 % to 0 .0 8 9 %
-0 .1 % to 0 %
-0 .2 % to -0 .1 1 % B e lo w -0 .2 %
V A
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L A
ID
A Z
U T
M T
W Y
N M
C O
A L
F L
S C
T N
K Y
INO H
N C
S D
K S
N E
M N
W I
IA
IL
M O
A R
M S
O K
N D
O R
C A N V
W A
T X
M I
G A
A K
H I
P A
ME
V A
N Y
C T
W V
D E
M D
N J
V TN H
M A
R I
1 to 1 0 (1 0 s ta te s )
1 1 to 2 0 (1 0 )
2 1 to 3 0 (1 0 )
3 1 to 4 0 (1 0 ) 4 1 to 5 0 (1 0 )
CREATIVITY INDEX 2003 RANKINGS
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How did we model migration?
MIGRATION = f(PCI, PBS, EFI, FFI, CRI)
Migration : Share of 2000 population for 25-39 year old in-migrants, 1995-2000.PCI : Per capita income, 2000.PBS : Professional Business Services, share of employment, 2000.EFI : Economic Freedom Index, 1999.FFI : Fiscal Freedom Index, 1999.CRI : Richard Florida Creativity Index, 2003.
What did we learn?
1. Go-getters are not attracted by higher income locations.2. They are highly attracted to large PBS states.3. Economic freedom is a strong positive4. They love “cool” states.5. They hate taxes.
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When they move, what moves them?
Freedom?
Cool?
Income?
Cities?
Knowledge Economy?
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We asked this question by way of statistical models. Our final model included a new Knowledge Economy Index. We also included a Freedom Index, a creativity index, and other economic variables.
Knowledge Economy Index
Index is based on statistical modeling of per capita income across the 50 states. Variation in income is explained by 1) education variable, 2) industry R&D expenditures weighted by employment, and 3) the relative number of fast growth firms (INC 500 & Deloitte Technology fast 500).
Regression coefficients are used as weights applied to state data to build index
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IDAHO
ARIZONA
UTAH
MONTANA
WYOMING
NEW MEXICO
COLORADO
TENNESSEE
OHIO
NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH DAKOTA
KANSAS
NEBRASKA
IOWA
OKLAHOMA
NORTH DAKOTA
OREGON
NEVADA
WASHINGTON
ALASKA
W.V.
PENNSYLVANIA
NEWYORK
RHODE ISLAND
CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
NEW HAMPSHIRE VERMONT
MASSACHUSETTS
2008 Knowledge Economy Index
TEXAS
GEORGIA
HAWAII
CALIFORNIA
WISCONSIN
ILLINOIS
MISSOURI
ARKANSAS
LOUISIANA
KENTUCKY
ALABAMAMISS.
FLORIDA
SOUTHCAROLINA
MAINE
MICHIGAN
INDIANA
MINNESOTA
VIRGINIA
1 - 10
11 - 20
21 - 30
31 - 40
41 - 50
State Quintiles
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IDAHO
ARIZONA
UTAH
MONTANA
WYOMING
NEW MEXICO
COLORADO
TENNESSEE
OHIO
NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH DAKOTA
KANSAS
NEBRASKA
IOWA
OKLAHOMA
NORTH DAKOTA
OREGON
NEVADA
WASHINGTON
ALASKA
W.V.
PENNSYLVANIA
NEWYORK
RHODE ISLAND
CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
NEW HAMPSHIRE VERMONT
MASSACHUSETTS
Mercatus Overall Freedom Index
TEXAS
GEORGIA
HAWAII
CALIFORNIA
WISCONSIN
ILLINOIS
MISSOURI
ARKANSAS
LOUISIANA
KENTUCKY
ALABAMAMISS.
FLORIDA
SOUTHCAROLINA
MAINE
MICHIGAN
INDIANA
MINNESOTA
VIRGINIA
1 - 10
11 - 20
21 - 30
31 - 40
41 - 50
State Quintiles
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2008 Economic Freedom & Knowledge Index Rankings
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Knowledge Economy Ranking
Econ
omic
Fre
edom
Ran
king
Kansas
Georgia
Colorada Utah
New HampshireVirginia
Delaware Arizona
Hawaii
NebraskaMinnesota
South Carolina
Montana
North Carolina
Alabama
Missouri
Iowa
Rhode Island
New York
CaliforniaNew Jersey
VermontMichigan
Washington
Maryland
Connecticut
Massachusets Oregon
S. DakotaIdaho
Wisconsin
N. Dakota
OklahomaNevada
Wyoming
Arkansas
Mississippi
Indiana
Maine
New Mexico
Alaska
Texas
FloridaTennessee
Louisiana
Kentucky
W. Virginia
OhioPennsylvania
Illinois
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Series1
State Ranks for Average Migration Rate Rank 2004-08
International Migration
Dom
estic
Mig
ratio
n
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MIGRATION = f(KEI, OFI, CRI, COL, PCI , POP)
Migration: Average annual in-migration of 25-39 year olds, 2004-2008.
KEI : Knowledge economy index, 2008, Watkins-Yandle.OFI : Overall freedom index, 2008, Mercatus.CRI : Creativity index, Richard Florida, updated 2008.COL : Cost of living index, 2009, Council for Community
& Economic Research.PCI : Per capita income, 2008.POP : Average population, 2004-2008.
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What did we learn?
1. Domestic and international movers prefer urbanized states.
2. International movers head toward highly ranked knowledge economy states; domestic movers are indifferent.
3. Domestic and international movers are high on overall economic freedom.
4. “Cool” locations matter to domestic movers but not to international movers.
5. Personal freedom matters to international movers, but not to domestic movers.
OVERALL: Freedom matters.
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MSA State Rank
Austin Texas 1Charlottesville Virginia 2Lexington Kentucky 3Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill North Carolina 4Atlanta Georgia 5Huntsville Alabama 6Gainesville Florida 7Tallahassee Florida 8Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill North & South Carolina 9Richmond-Petersburg Virginia 10Fort Walton Beach Florida 11Columbia South Carolina 12Naples Florida 13Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Texas 14Jackson Mississippi 15Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News Virginia 16Orlando Florida 17Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay Florida 18Asheville North Carolina 19Sarasota-Bradenton Florida 20Auburn-Opelika Alabama 21Charleston-N. Charleston South Carolina 22Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Texas 23Wilmington North Carolina 24Cincinnati-Hamilton Ohio 25
Southern MSA Knowledge Economy Index
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State RankRaleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill NC 1Huntsville AL 2Atlanta GA 3Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill NC-SC 4Columbia SC 5Auburn-Opelika AL 6Asheville NC 7Charleston-North Charleston SC 8Wilmington NC 9Greenville NC 10Savannah GA 11Nashville TN 12Knoxville TN 13Athens GA 14Birmingham AL 15Tuscaloosa AL 16Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson SC 17Montgomery AL 18Memphis TN-AR-MS 19Fayetteville NC 20
Regional MSA Index Ranking
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FINDING THE NEW ENTREPRENEUR
ONE-PERSON FIRMS
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Toward a Nonemployer Entrepreneurship Index
Firms & Establishments, 2008 Nonemployers Establishments Prof., Scientific, Tech N/E PST/Non
U.S. 21,351,320 7,601,169 3,028,695 2.80 14.0%ALA 311,388 103,875 30,897 2.99 9.9Huntsville 25,760 9,557 3,603 2.70 13.9
Auburn 8,464 2,464 1,099 3.43 13.0Tuscaloosa 12,005 4,469 1,202 2.70 10.0
Austin 130,728 40,134 26,275 3.28 19.9Durham 35,923 11,680 7,864 3.01 21.8Greenville 40,780 15,781 5,295 2.58 12.9
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MSA Nonemployers/Enterprises
Prof. Technical & Scientific/Nonemployers
In dex = P,T&S share of total enterprise
Rank
Austin, TX 3.28 19.9% .65 1
Durham, NC 3.01 21.8 .65 1
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria, TX
3.77 14.2 .54 2
Gainesville, FL 2.64 19.8 .52 3
Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington, TX
3.48 14.8 .52 3
Atlanta, GA 3.33 14.7 .49 4
Auburn-Opelika, AL 3.43 13.0 .45 5
Tallahassee, FL 2.64 16.7 .44 6
Naples, FL 2.91 14.6 .42 7
Charlottesville, VA 2.67 21.0 .42 7
Lexington, KY 2.70 15.6 .42 7
Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 2.81 14.1 .40 8
Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH/KY 2.67 15.0 .40 8
Jackson, MS 3.17 12.2 .39 9
Huntsville, AL 2.70 13.9 .38 10
Nonemployer Firm Entrepreneurship Index
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QUESTIONS