A. Schizzerotto - European experiences of counterfactual impact evaluations of migrants integration...

European experiences of counterfactual impact evaluations of migrants integration policies Antonio SchizzerottoUniversity of Trento and FBK-IRVAPP

A two-folded typology of empirical researches on relationships between migrants and hosting countries:a)Basic typology aimed at classifying researches on migration processes according to their main substantive and disciplinary topics;b) Supplementary typology inspired by a recent literature review by Rinne (2012) and regarding analyses specifically devoted to migration policies.

2European experiences of counterfactual impact evaluations of migrants integration policies |Antonio Schizzerotto | Rome 17 - 18

June 2013

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a) Basic typology

2a) Economy: analyses regarding the influences of migration processes on the economic system of hosting countries.

1a) Society: analyses regarding the influences of migration

processes on social life of hosting countries.

3a) Politics: analyses regarding policy measures intended to rule migration processes and integrate migrants in hosting countries.

European experiences of counterfactual impact evaluations of migrants integration policies |Antonio Schizzerotto | Rome 17 - 18 June 2013

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b) Supplementary typology regarding researches on migration policies (1)1b) analyses intended to monitor possible

economic and social influences of migrants selection and settlement policies;

2b) impact evaluations of migrants selection and settlement policies on the specific outcomes that individual policies are supposed to achieve;

3b) analyses intended to monitor possible economic and social influences of migrants integration policies;

4b) impact evaluations of migrants integration policies on the specific outcomes that individual policies are supposed to achieve.


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b) Supplementary typology regarding researches on migration policies (2)

• Analyses belonging to types 2b and 4b currently represent the soundest analytical approach in order to check the effectiveness of specific migration policies and to supply policy makers with robust advices regarding the design and the implementation of such policies.

• Actually some EU DGs are increasingly supporting the resort to the counterfactual approach in order to assess the impacts of specific labour policies and the overall effects of the European structural funds.


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b) Supplementary typology regarding researches on migration policies (3)

• Type 2b and type 4b analyses are based on standard counterfactual approach, i.e. on the comparison between a treated group and a control group, the latter being intended to reproduce the situation of the treated group if it is was not treated.

• Main procedures used to perform the treated – control comparisons

a) social experiments based on randomised selection of both groups among the target population;

b) natural experiments based on RDD, Diff-in Diffs, Instrumental variables. All these procedures can be integrated and made more robust by means of propensity score matching techniques.


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Main types of public policies addressed to migrants’ integration evaluated according

to counterfactual approach

1. Introduction programmes;

2. Language training programmes;

3. Active labour market policies;

4. Anti-discrimination policies.


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1. Introduction programmes

One evaluation experience in Sweden (by Andersson Joona and Neckby 2012), based on a random assignment of two samples of migrants to two different programmes comprising both learning activities of Swedish language and contacts with local firms and labour markets. The program based on more intensive counselling and coaching as well as a more flexible language training has proved to be more effective in promoting the transition into regular employment than the standard program based on less frequent contacts with local labour markets and more structured teaching of language.


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2. Language training programmes

• One evaluation study (by Hayfron 2001) in Norway. Using an instrumental variable procedure, the analysis indicates that participants in language training are more likely to acquire speaking and reading proficiency in the Norwegian language than nonparticipants. However, it turned out that the improvement in mastering the local language does not affect immigrants’ earnings.

• A cross-country comparative research (by Christensen and Stanat 2007) shows that the competence in the language of instruction of immigrant children strongly affects their school achievements.


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3. Active labour market policies

3a) Migrants targeted programs

3b) General programs (addressed to both immigrants and natives)


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3a. Migrants targeted programs evaluation (1)

The evaluation of a Finnish program consisting of an individualized sequence of training and subsidized employment with and non‐compliances sanctioned by reductions in welfare benefits was carried out by Sarvimäki and Hämäläinen (2010). The study shows that the program strongly increased the employment and earnings of immigrants and reduced their dependency on social benefits.


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A second impact evaluation experience of immigrant targeted labour market program refers to Sweden and was performed by Aslund and Johansson (2011). They analysed the effectiveness of a workplace introduction program mainly involving intensified counseling, job search assistance, a workplace introduction, and monitoring. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach they show that the program improved the employment probabilities of participants.


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• The effects of participation in different active labor market programs for newly‐arrived immigrants in Denmark was analysed by Clausen and other scholars in 2009. They showed substantial locking‐in effects for participants in most programs analysed. However the program based on wage subsidies did not display such an effect. Moreover it exerted a positive effects on the transition rate to regular employment.

• Heinesen et al. (2011) analyze the effects of different active labor market programs on the exit rate to regular employment for non‐western immigrants in Denmark who receive social assistance. The authors report that subsidised employment programs reduce the duration of social assistance spells substantially.European experiences of counterfactual impact evaluations of migrants integration policies |Antonio Schizzerotto | Rome 17 - 18

June 2013

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3b. General programs evaluation

A German program consisting in start‐up subsidies for the unemployed both native and immigrants unemployed was evaluated by Caliendo and Künn (2011). They found that the effect of the program was a bit lower among immigrants than among native. Nevertheless, also the effects for immigrants were significantly positive.


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4. Anti-discrimination programs

An evaluation of the effects of anonymous job applications was carried out, on the basis of a diff-in-diffs and a field experiment, by Aslund and Nordström Skans (2012) in Sweden. Some branches of the administration of the city of Gothenburg used such applications to select personnel to be hired. The analyses of this experiment showed t that anonymous job applications increase the chances of advancing to interviews for both women and immigrants of non-Western origin. Women also experience a higher job offer probability. The latter effect is not found for immigrants.


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Conclusions (1)

1. Quite few EU experiences of counterfactual evaluations of migrants integration policies.2. Difficulties in inferring general statements regarding the impacts of individual types of integration policies.3. However the EU experiences (and those in the US) prove the capacity of counterfactual evaluations of separating effective from ineffective programs.4. The level of effectiveness declines moving from active labour policies, to language training programs, to anti-discrimination programs, and to introductory programs.


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Conclusions (2)

5. However active labour policies based on training vocational courses generate sizeable lock-in effects and subsequent extension of the integration period.6. Integration seems to be better and faster promoted by active labour policies providing for subsidised work places devoted to migrants.7. Language training policies seem not to have impacts on immigrants earnings, but they increase the chances of finding a job among adult migrants and improve school achievements of migrant children.


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Thank you for the attention

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