A Rising 30-Year Bond Yield is a Drag on Equity Valuations.

8/2/2019 A Rising 30-Year Bond Yield is a Drag on Equity Valuations.

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

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Marc h 15, 2012 – A Rising 30-Year Bon d Yield is a Drag on Equi t y Valuat io ns.

The yield on the 30-Year Bond is cheaper than my semiannual pivot at 3.225 which indicates

risk to my annual value level at 3.756. Back on October 4th

ValuEngine showed 93.5% of allstocks undervalued. Today the pendulum swings to having 50.5% of all stocks overvalued.While this stage is set, new “Year to Date” highs occurred for the Dow Industrial Average, S&P500 & NASDAQ on Wednesday at 13,221.27, 1399.42, and 3051.23 respectively. The DowTransports and Russell 2000 did not participate in this strength as those all time highs set in2011 at 5627.85 on July 7, 2011 and 868.57 on May 2, 2011 appear to be unachievable. Weeklycloses above my annual pivot at 1363.2 SPX indicates potential strength to weekly risky levelsat; 13,311 Dow Industrials, 1412.6 SPX, 3130 NASDAQ, 5293 Dow Transports and 836.15 “A” onRussell 2000. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury tested its 200-day simple moving average a2.224. It seems like the yield complex almost always tests its 200-day during a calendar year.Gold is below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $1702.2 and $1678.5 and

traded down to my semiannual pivot at $1635.8 on Wednesday. Crude oil remains below thisweek’s pivot is $107.27. The euro vs the dollar remains above its semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

10-Year Note – (2.279) My annual value level is 2.502 with daily, weekly, semiannual and quarterlyrisky levels at 2.169, 2.097, 1.903 and 1.687.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters



Comex Gold – ($1643.0) My annual value level is $1575.8 with semiannual and daily pivots at$1659.5, $1635.8 and $1651.6, and quarterly, weekly and monthly risky levels at $1740.9, $1808.4

and $1888.4.


Nymex Crude Oil – ($105.68) Semiannual, annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levelsare $104.84, $103.58, $99.87, $97.96 and $79.83 with daily and weekly pivots at $105.93 and$107.27 and my annual risky level at $117.00.




The Euro – (1.3023) Semiannual, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2622, and 1.2499with a daily pivot at 1.3048, and weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3650, 1.4239 and

1.4405.


Daily Dow: (13,194) Daily, quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 13,004, 12,47812,312, 11,903, 8,425 and 8,336 with weekly and annual risky levels at 13,311 and 14,032.




S&P 500 – (1394.3) Daily, annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1375.4, 1363.21305.4, 1222.5, 841.7 and 829.9, and weekly and annual risky levels at 1412.6 and 1562.9.

NASDAQ – (3041) Daily, quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2993, 2777,2698, 2651, 2012 and 1952 with weekly and annual risky levels at 3130 and 3232.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2708) Daily, annual, monthly, quarterly, annual and semiannual value levelsare 2660, 2603, 2428, 2422, 2300, 1851 and 1743 with my weekly risky level at 2761.

Dow Transports – (5180) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 5132, 4470, 4407 and 3778with weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5293, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was seat 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

Russell 2000 – (823.41) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 820.32, 684.13, 572.90 and510.81 with quarterly pivots at 824.46 and 829.03, and annual and weekly risky levels at 836.15 and

862.39. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

The SOX – (426.65) Daily, quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 417.23, 390.17323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with weekly and annual risky levels at 460.47 and 520.61. The2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

ValuEngine Valuation Model: Monthly benchmark revisions are favorable for stocks.

• 49.5% of all stocks are undervalued / 50.5% of all stocks are overvalued. Back on October 4th –93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.

• Fifteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued; four by double-digit percentages. Finance by 21.1%,Computers & Technology by 18.1%, Retail-Wholesale by 16.4% and Medical by 11.8%. Back inMarch 2009 all sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%.

• Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

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ETF Weekly – If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds usethis link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report – In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly BankingProfile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C My special report dissecting the Q4 2011 FDICQuarterly Banking Profile was posted on March 7 th. I track the continuing slow improvement to thehousing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the woods.

ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investmenthelp based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VECapital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offe



to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow

stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions• Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price

weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. • Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple

long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength tothe Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions• Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple

short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weaknesto the Value Level.

• Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go tohttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”

A Rising 30-Year Bond Yield is a Drag on Equity Valuations.

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