WISE M NEYA Weekly Update from SMC

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WORLD DIABETES DAY14th November

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2017: Issue 605, Week: 13th - 16th November

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From The Desk Of Editor

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

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lobal markets remained in the grip of bulls in the week gone by, but some profit

booking was seen during the end of the week in the U.S. markets after senate Grevealed that its tax plan would delay cuts to the corporate rate until 2019.

Recently, the European Commission forecast the euro zone economy will grow at its fastest

pace in a decade this year. The commission said that European economy is enjoying a period

of positive momentum as growth spreads across all member states, public accounts are

expected to look healthier and risks are balanced for the first time in a long while. On the

Chinese market front, China's blue-chip index extended its rally to close at a 27-month

high, encouraged by Beijing's move to lift foreign ownership limits on financial firms.

Back at home, domestic market ended mildly higher on Friday ahead of September

industrial output and October inflation data due next week. Rise in crude prices may not

only act as impediment for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to lower interest rates but

sustenance or further spike in crude prices may also pose a threat to the Modi government

India of rise in inflation in weak economic growth environment. The GST Council has

decided to slash rates on more than 175 items, reducing taxes on these from the existing 28

percent in one of the biggest tax reductions since the new system kicked-in from July 1.

Though at present we are seeing profit booking but the market rally is likely to continue

going forward and scale new highs. On the earning front, earnings for second quarter are as

per expectation as GST rollout had already lowered down the growth expectation.

On the commodity market front, with some upside in bullion, energy and some agri

commodities counter, CRB closed up for nonstop three week while sideways to weak

performance of industrial metals capped the upside. Uncertainty about Trump's tax plan,

political development in Middle-east and US stance on North Korea may give further

direction to the gold prices. Crude oil got support from the increased expectations that

OPEC may extend production cuts, reports of increase in Chinese crude import quotas,

optimism about US economy and tensions between Saudi and Iran over Yemen. It can move

in the range of 3600-3850 levels in MCX. This week is full of important meetings and

economic releases and some of them are BOJ Governor Kuroda scheduled to speak in

Zurich, GDP of Germany, Italy and Euro zone, CPI of UK, Euro-Zone ZEW Survey¸ Yellen

Speaks on ECB Panel with Draghi, Kuroda, and Carney, Draghi, Yellen, Carney, Kuroda Speak

in Frankfurt, CPI and Retail Sales Advance of US, Carney, Broadbent, Haldane at BOE Future

Forum, Liverpool, Unemployment Rate of Australia, CPI of Canada etc.

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

FD Monitor 16

Mutual Fund 17

SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.

REGISTERED OFFICES:

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KOLKATA OFFICE:

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Tel : 91-33-39847000 Fax No : 91-33-39847004

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NEWS

DOMESTIC NEWSAutomobile/ Auto Ancillaries• Hero MotoCorp is working to come out with a separate retail channel to

sell its premium products (150 cc and above). The company currently sells its bread and butter commuter bikes, including Splendor, HF Deluxe and Glamour, from over 6,000 dealerships in India along with its performance bikes together in the same showrooms.

• Wheels India has decided to close down its operations at Pantnagar, and says the move it is part of ongoing strategic business decision. Meanwhile, the company has formed a JV with Japan-based Topy Industries to set up a plant Gujarat.

Metals• Tata Steel has established India's largest coke dry quenching (CDQ) facility

capable of handling 200 tonnes per hour, at its Greenfield steel plant located at the Kalingnagar Industrial Complex in Odisha's Jaipur district.

Bank• State Bank of India (SBI) will open more branches in Nepal and consider

options to re-enter Vietnam under a three-year goal to grow its international operations to as much as 15 percent of total business.

Capital Goods• ABB India is providing critical technology through its solar inverters for

solar powered charging stations for e-rickshaws at four locations in Jabalpur. The solar powered charging stations are part of a renewable energy project initiated by the Jabalpur Smart City Corporation.

Telecom• Reliance Communications (RCom) has signed a memorandum of

understanding with Veecon Media and Television Limited for the sale of its subsidiary Reliance BIG TV Limited, which is engaged in direct to home (DTH) services across India. Veecon will acquire the entire shareholding of Reliance Big TV on an 'as-is where-is' basis, along with all existing trade liabilities and contingent liabilities. The transaction is in consonance with RCom's stated objective to focus on core businesses.

• Reliance Communications would sell its direct-to-home (DTH) subsidiary, Reliance BIG TV, to Veecon Media and Television. The transaction will help reduce the liability of unsecured creditors, benefiting all stakeholders, including lenders and shareholders of RCom.

Information Technology• AXISCADES has acquired Bengaluru-based defence product firm Mistral for

Rs 175 crore as it looks to expand newer business opportunities in defence electronics.

Miscellaneous• TeamLease Services has acquired 40 per cent stake in online learning

company Schoolguru Eduserve Pvt Ltd for Rs 13.53 crore, a move that will accelerate TeamLease's employability strategy.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS• US wholesale inventories edged up by 0.3 percent in September after

climbing by a revised 0.8 percent in August. Economists had expected inventories to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.9 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

• US initial jobless claims climbed to 239,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 229,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge up to 231,000. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average fell to 231,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 232,500.

• US consumer credit surged up by $20.8 billion in September after climbing by $13.1 billion in August. Economists had expected consumer credit to rise by $18.0 billion. Revolving credit, which largely reflects credit card debt, rose by $6.3 billion in September after increasing by $5.6 billion in August.

• The U.S. Commerce Department said the country's trade deficit widened in September to $43.5 billion, compared to a figure of $42.8 billion in the previous month. Economists had expected the figure to widen, though the final amount was slightly more than the $43.4 billion economists had expected.

• US labor productivity surged up by 3.0 percent in the third quarter after climbing by 1.5 percent in the second quarter. Economists had expected production to increase by 2.4 percent. The bigger than expected increase in productivity, a measure of output per hour, came as output saw another substantial increase but the pace of growth in hours worked slowed.

• China's inflation climbed at the fastest pace in nine months in October and producer price inflation exceeded expectations as measures taken to curb pollution raised commodity prices. Inflation rose to 1.9 percent in October from 1.6 percent in September. Economists had forecast the rate to climb moderately to 1.8 percent. This was the highest rate since January, when inflation was 2.5 percent.

• Japan's tertiary activity index decreased for the second straight month in September, and at a faster-than-expected rate, data published by the Ministry of Economy. The tertiary activity index dropped 0.2 percent month-over-month in September, following a 0.1 percent decrease in August. Economists had expected a 0.1 percent stable rate of fall for the month.

Ex-Date Company Purpose

13-Nov-17 Sundram Fasteners Interim Dividend - Rs 1.90 Per Share14-Nov-17 L&T Technology Services Interim Dividend - Rs 4/- Per Share

(Purpose Revised)16-Nov-17 Bharat Forge Interim Dividend Rs 2/- Per Share16-Nov-17 Balkrishna Industries Interim Dividend - Rs 2.50 Per Share

(Purpose Revised)16-Nov-17 Manappuram Finance Interim Dividend - Re 0.50 Per Share

Meeting Date Company Purpose

13-Nov-17 PTC India Financial Serv. Results13-Nov-17 Adani Ports and Special

Economic Zone Results13-Nov-17 NTPC Results13-Nov-17 Adani Enterprises Results13-Nov-17 Rajesh Exports Results/Others13-Nov-17 Gujarat State Petronet Results13-Nov-17 NMDC Results13-Nov-17 Kalpataru Power

Transmission Results13-Nov-17 Idea Cellular Results13-Nov-17 Reliance Nippon Life

Asset Management Results14-Nov-17 Gitanjali Gems Results14-Nov-17 CEAT Results14-Nov-17 PNC Infratech Results14-Nov-17 IPCA Laboratories Results14-Nov-17 Sun Pharmaceutical Ind. Results14-Nov-17 Bank of Baroda Results14-Nov-17 BASF India Results14-Nov-17 Fortis Healthcare Results14-Nov-17 Housing Development

and Infrastructure Results/Others14-Nov-17 Unitech Results14-Nov-17 Eicher Motors Results14-Nov-17 GAIL (India) Results14-Nov-17 Grasim Industries Results14-Nov-17 Reliance Capital Results14-Nov-17 MOIL Results

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

NOTES:1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name

of "Morning Mantra ".2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength

coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

TREND SHEET

Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing

Price Trend Trend

Changed Changed

S&P BSE SENSEX 33250 UP 18.11.16 25627 31900 31400

NIFTY50 10309 UP 27.01.17 8641 9900 9750

NIFTY IT 11248 UP 21.07.17 10712 10500 10400

NIFTY BANK 25921 UP 27.01.17 19708 24200 23900

ACC 1761 UP 06.10.17 1740 1700 1680

BHARTIAIRTEL 504 UP 13.10.17 431 480 460

BPCL 522 UP 18.10.17 514 480 470

CIPLA 615 UP 09.06.17 551 590 580

SBIN 314 UP 27.10.17 311 300 290

HINDALCO 263 UP 27.01.17 191 250 240

ICICI BANK 311 UP 27.10.17 301 290 280

INFOSYS 955 DOWN 13.04.17 931 970 980

ITC 260 DOWN 21.07.17 289 280 285

L&T 1216 UP 13.01.17 959 1150 1130

MARUTI 8205 UP 06.01.17 5616 7750 7600

NTPC 178 UP 04.08.17 177 170 165

ONGC 190 UP 27.10.17 184 176 170

RELIANCE 901 UP 23.06.17 718 840 810

TATASTEEL 703 UP 19.05.17 490 640 620

S/l

4

Closing as on 10-11-2017

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

SMC Trend

FMCGHealthcare

Auto BankRealty

Cap GoodsCons Durable

Oil & GasPower

ITMetal

Down SidewaysUp

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

5

SMC Trend

Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500

SMC Trend

FTSE 100CAC 40

NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500

NikkeiStrait times

Hang SengShanghai

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)

5987.49

448.39738.10

678.80

173.89 144.94

-1359.51-2000.00

-1000.00

0.00

1000.00

2000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

FII / FPI Activity MF Activity

5.784.44

3.73 3.40 3.01

-20.74

-6.84 -6.53

-4.74 -4.57

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

Tech Mahindra

TCS Bharti Infra. HCL Technologies

Infosys Lupin Bharti Airtel Yes Bank Reliance Inds. Bajaj Fin.

4.643.02 2.82 2.28 1.86

-20.70

-6.92

-4.66 -3.97 -3.46

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

TCS Infosys Wipro M & M Asian Paints Lupin Bharti Airtel Reliance Inds.

Cipla St Bk of India

-1.37-1.29

-0.81

-1.26

-1.01

-1.22

-1.60

-1.40

-1.20

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap

Nifty Next 50

S&P CNX 500

-0.70

-1.57-1.12

8.86

-0.14

-3.73

3.60

-2.41 -2.61 -2.49-2.85

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index

Cons Durable Index

FMCG Index Healthcare Index

IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index

Power Index Realty Index

1.46

1.23

1.861.66

-0.21-0.33

-0.12

-1.01

-2.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.

FTSE 100 CAC 40

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

6

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

CYIENT LIMITED CMP: 538.90 Upside:17%Target Price: 629.00

Investment Rationale growth in its Semiconductor business driven ?Cyient Limited, formerly Infotech Enterprises largely by growth across key accounts and

Limited, is engaged in providing software- operational efficiency improvements through the enabled engineering and geographic information year. During the quarter, the company opened a system (GIS) services. The Company's segments near shore facility in Bengaluru for one of the include Data & Network Operations (DNO); aerospace customer. In order to further improve Engineering, Manufacturing, Industrial Products efficiency and productivity in organization, (EMI), and Product Realisation (PR). beginning this quarter, the company has started

including paid overtime and weekend hours to the ?The management expects to start realizing available project capacity to ensure optimum significant revenue contribution from strategy resource planning. execution in FY 2018. The strong outlook for FY 2018

is backed by a strong pipeline and order backlog. ValuationThe management expects a double digit growth in The company is optimistic about the future and services business while DLM (Design Led would continue to invest in digitalization, including Manufacturing) business would grow at least 20%. It IoT, digital manufacturing, engineering analytics, expects to deliver a double digit earnings growth in and mobility. As per the management, key industry FY 2018.Cyient is progressing well on another year drivers for growth to be Communications, of well-rounded growth in revenue, profit and cash. Transportation, Semiconductor, and Manufacturing.

?Its Aerospace & Defense business has contributed With a healthy pipeline and order backlog, it expects around 35% of its total revenue and during to deliver a strong financial performance throughout Q2FY18; it has witnessed a growth of 2.1% yoy and the year. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a 1.7% qoq. Aerospace & Defense business unit is price target of `629 in 8 to 10 months time frame on following through on Design-Build-Maintain an expected P/Ex 15 and F\Y18 EPS of ̀ 41.94.strategy and completed the qualification testing for an in-flight system with serial production expected towards end of CY17.

?The Communications industry is witnessing increased demand for high-speed infrastructure as well as fiber deployment across Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S. The growth momentum of Communications division will continue in FY 18, as the management sees growth opportunities from fiber roll-out programs, and small cell design and deployment in Australia and North America.

?The management expects strong growth in Transportation division in FY 2018 owing to its growth in focus segments of rolling stock and signaling, strong long term relationships, improved utilization and a healthy opportunity pipeline.

?In FY 2018, the company expects about 15%

Face Value (`) 5.00

52 Week High/Low 578.25/416.05

M.Cap (`Cr.) 6066.63

EPS (`) 34.31

P/E Ratio (times) 15.71

P/B Ratio (times) 2.72

Dividend Yield (%) 2.14

Stock Exchange BSE

% OF SHARE HOLDING

P/E Chart

` in cr

Actual EstimateFY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19

Revenue 3585.80 3914.40 4452.10

EBITDA 570.40 555.90 659.40

EBIT 475.10 471.10 566.90

Pre-Tax Profit 457.90 550.50 628.30

Net Income 369.90 408.70 468.90

EPS 32.85 36.27 41.94

VALUE PARAMETERS

Investment Rationale `33.42 crore. Company has delivered a profitable growth during the period and the management is •VA Tech Wabag is engaged in water treatment optimistic that it will continue its good field. The company principal activities include performance in the forthcoming quarters.design, supply, installation, construction and

•Going forward, the goals set by 193 United Nations operational management of drinking water, waste Member States in its 2030 Agenda for Sustainable water treatment, industrial water treatment and Development shall play a crucial role in determining desalination plants. the future of drinking water, sanitation and •The Company is present in four geographical hygiene, integrated water management, and clusters with India, including South-East Asia, protection of ecosystem globally.accounting for 65 per cent of the business; West

Asia and Africa about 15 per cent; Europe, a Valuationlegacy market, about 20 per cent; and Latin The company has a healthy order in pipeline and is America just starting. well geared to complete execution of current order

•According to the management, revenue guidance book. Overseas business saw better efficiencies for FY18 is ̀ 3800 crore – ̀ 4000 crore. Order Intake because of better procurement and efficient guidance is ̀ 4300 crore– ̀ 4500 crore. execution. Thus, it is expected that the company would

see good growth going forward and the stock will see a •During the quarter ended September 2017, the price target of `776 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a order book stands at over `7900 crore including target P/E of 21x and FY19 (E) earnings of ̀ 36.97.Framework contracts of about `800 crore. The

revenue book currently constitutes of equal amount from domestic and international.

•Wastewater treatment sector has huge potential in the coming years. In the industrial sector, as the demand for water from the industrial units grows, there will be a significant demand for water treatment. It is estimated that by 2020 the market for industrial water treatment technologies will grow by 50%. The agricultural sector accounts for 70% of all fresh water consumption wherein the water reuse shall be critical.

•For the quarter ended September 2017, it has reported a 14% rise its consolidated sales to `886.54 crore and the net profit grew 39% to

P/E Chart

Face Value (`) 2.00

52 Week High/Low 749.00/449.95

M.Cap (`Cr.) 3189.15

EPS (`) 22.16

P/E Ratio (times) 26.36

P/B Ratio (times) 3.12

Dividend Yield (%) 0.68

Stock Exchange BSE

` in cr

% OF SHARE HOLDING

VALUE PARAMETERS

Actual Estimate

FY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19

Revenue 3,207.90 3,740.20 4,204.70

EBITDA 307.90 348.20 396.50

EBIT 288.70 333.40 388.80

Pre-Tax Profit 178.90 280.90 323.70

Net Income 102.40 176.10 206.90

EPS 18.75 33.47 36.97

VA TECH WABAG LIMITED CMP: 584.15 Upside:33%Target Price: 776.00

54.5

12.07

05.44

22.18

5.81

Foreign

Institutions

Govt holding

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

27.87

25.01

4.42

24.72

18

Foreign

Institutions

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

7

EQUITY

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.The analyst, not any of its affiliated companies, not any of their members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE

The stock closed at `187.10 on 10th November 2017. It made a 52-week low at

`100.20 on 15th November 2016 and a 52-week high of `213 on 16th june 2017.

The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is

currently at ̀ 172.82.

After testing 52 week high in June 2017, the stock has been trading in lower

channel and seen making lower highs and lower lows on daily charts. Now on

current picture, the stock has formed bullish flag formation on weekly charts

and is on verge of breakout above the falling trend line of the formation.

Moreover, the prices have also managed to maintain above its 200 days

exponential moving average on daily charts with consistent buying at lower

levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 185-189 levels for the upside

target of 205-208 levels with SL below 174.

1.DCB Bank Limited (DCBBANK)

The stock closed at ̀ 2708.75 on 10th November 2017. It made a 52-week low at

`2051.90 on 15th November 2016 and a 52-week high of ̀ 2768 on 07th November

2017. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily

chart is currently at ̀ 2448.31

The stock has formed an “Ascending Triangle” pattern on weekly charts, and

also managed to give breakout above that. Ever since the breakout in prices,

stock has been trading higher and has now given fresh break above the previous

key resistance level of 2700 level as well. The fresh breakout above the previous

resistance along with positive divergence in secondary indicators like RSI suggest

for more upside in prices moving forward. Therefore, one can buy in the range of

2700-2710 levels for the upside target of 2875-2890 levels with SL below 2600

Tata Consultancy Services Limited (TCS)

DERIVATIVES

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QY) (MONTHLY)

Nifty dragged down due to liquidation of long positions. Recent data has turned slightly negative and is indicating probability of further profit booking. We have

seen aggressive call writing and put unwinding in recent trading sessions. Call writes were active in 10500 and 10400 strike calls indicating limited upside. This

clearly indicates lack of buying interest and discomfort in the market. In November series, we have continuously seen selling by FIIS at higher levels. The range of

10200-10500 levels will remain crucial for this week as indicated by option open interest concentration. If Nifty falls below the 10200 mark, it could correct to

10000 levels on the back of further selling. On bounce, the index will face strong resistance at 10450-10500 levels. The options open interest concentration

shifted at the 10500-strike calls with the highest open interest of above 45 lakh shares; among put options, the 10200-strike taking the total open interest to 57

lakh shares, with the highest open interest among put options. Implied Volatility (IV) of calls was up and closed at 10.79% while that for put options closed at

11.12%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 13.27% and is expected to volatile. The PCR OI for the week closed up at 1.08 which indicates OTM put writing.

Overall data has turned slightly negative and more weakness can be seen. Next support is placed around 10250-10200 levels.

In lakhs

In 10000 In 10000

PCJEWELLER (NOV FUTURE)

Buy: Above `385

Target: `392

Stop loss: `377

JSWSTEEL

BUY NOV 275. CALL 7.60SELL NOV 285. CALL 3.85

LOT SIZE: 3000BEP: 278.75

MAX. PROFIT: 18750.00 (6.25*3000)MAX. LOSS: 11250.00 (3.75*3000)

OPTIONSTRATEGY

FUTURE

HINDUNILVR

BUY NOV 1300. CALL 26.00SELL NOV 1320. CALL 19.00

LOT SIZE: 600BEP: 1307.00

MAX. PROFIT: 7800.00 (13.00*600)MAX. LOSS: 4200.00 (7.00*600)

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

HAVELLS (NOV FUTURE)

Sell: Below `499

Target: `486

Stop loss: `506

BULLISH STRATEGY

BAJAJ-AUTO

BUY NOV 3300. CALL 44.00SELL NOV 3350. CALL 30.00

LOT SIZE: 250BEP: 3314.00

MAX. PROFIT: 9000.00 (36.00*250)MAX. LOSS: 3500.00 (14.00*250)

BPCL (NOV FUTURE)

Sell: Below `505

Target: `488

Stop loss: `515

Call Put

6.7

2

9.3

7

8.7

2

11

.13

25

.82

38

.59 4

5.2

6

36

.02

30

.59

30

.20

20

.16

21

.46

54

.27

35

.47

54

.97

42

.46

24

.31

11

.36

5.8

7

2.6

5

0.3

8

10

.03

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 11000

Call Put

-0.2

2

-0.4

5

-0.3

4

0.0

0 2.1

9

9.0

2

14

.70

10

.59

4.8

9

9.5

1

2.3

3

-0.7

7

-7.9

5

-2.9

3

2.3

9

-4.2

9

-10

.08

-2.6

6

-0.4

9

0.3

6

-0.0

7

0.5

6

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 11000

Call Put

3.4

0

1.8

5

3.7

2

32

.96

39

.50

44

.41

2.8

6

56

.44

5.7

4

78

.90

24

.25

6.6

6 16

.44

19

.90

47

.24

57

.88

16

5.3

8

7.4

8

46

.80

2.0

8

82

.11

4.8

4

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

22500 23000 23500 24000 24500 25000 25300 25500 25700 26000 26500

Call Put

-0.0

3

-0.1

9

-0.0

7

-0.2

6

-4.3

7

-4.5

4

1.3

8

0.5

1 2.5

9

19

.06

4.1

9

-0.3

9

0.1

0

0.9

0

0.2

8

-4.4

2

0.3

0 3.8

0

14

.90

0.9

5

28

.13

0.1

7

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

22500 23000 23500 24000 24500 25000 25300 25500 25700 26000 26500

8

In lakhs

9

DERIVATIVES

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

09-Nov 08-Nov 07-Nov 06-Nov 03-Nov

DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 52.85 51.75 59.75 37.75 34.30

COST OF CARRY% 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.69 0.65

PCR(OI) 1.08 1.09 1.19 1.43 1.42

PCR(VOL) 1.02 0.99 0.93 1.00 1.06

A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 0.89 0.59 0.28 0.82 0.76

A/D RATIO(ALL FO STOCK)* 1.86 0.43 0.22 1.00 1.08

IMPLIED VOLATILITY 10.79 11.15 11.42 10.76 9.78

VIX 13.27 13.61 13.24 13.02 13.02

HISTORY. VOL 10.77 11.10 11.24 10.90 11.24

*All Future Stock

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN NIFTY FUTURE

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

#All Future Stock

LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng

NESTLEIND 7831.10 4.88% 157300 51.10%

PAGEIND 22298.60 8.22% 33500 45.97%

NIITTECH 664.65 1.81% 978000 31.72%

CHOLAFIN 1282.75 2.65% 511500 28.04%

OFSS 3674.80 2.87% 60750 19.47%

PCJEWELLER 360.50 1.48% 12681000 18.55%

TATAELXSI 915.25 6.00% 2085600 17.96%

KAJARIACER 725.80 7.65% 1344000 15.07%

PETRONET 269.70 3.31% 12906000 13.87%

IBULHSGFIN 1239.95 1.09% 10859200 10.61%

LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng

LUPIN 835.80 -20.57% 11319600 43.56%

TATAMOTORS 442.75 -1.39% 67624500 31.95%

IOC 395.45 -4.78% 17121000 29.19%

SRF 1648.15 -4.20% 1003500 27.75%

MGL 1165.45 -7.94% 904800 27.15%

BHARTIARTL 505.40 -7.09% 48856300 21.75%

NCC 103.15 -5.89% 23992000 19.91%

COALINDIA 278.45 -2.07% 21054500 18.02%

UPL 749.85 -3.95% 12531600 17.60%

PTC 120.60 -4.44% 20104000 15.12%

Top 10 short build upTop 10 long build up

In Cr. In Cr.

09-Nov 08-Nov 07-Nov 06-Nov 03-Nov

DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 128.05 114.60 95.85 47.55 17.95

COST OF CARRY% 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.69 0.65

PCR(OI) 1.51 1.55 1.59 1.46 1.45

PCR(VOL) 0.89 1.07 1.42 1.25 1.69

A/D RATIO(BANKNIFTY) 3.00 0.20 0.20 0.71 3.00

#A/D RATIO 6.33 0.10 0.16 1.20 3.40

IMPLIED VOLATILITY 13.32 14.19 14.73 13.89 12.72

VIX 13.27 13.61 13.24 13.02 13.02

HISTORY. VOL 18.41 18.88 19.34 19.28 19.83

- 51

5

19

1

- 63

0

- 49

- 76

0

- 41

8

- 92

9 - 76

8 - 60

2

- 11

12

-1400

-1200

-1000

- 800

- 600

- 400

- 200

0

200

400

27-Oct 30-Oct 31-Oct 01-Nov 02-Nov 03-Nov 06-Nov 07-Nov 08-Nov 09-Nov

87

1

70

0

- 12

7

39

0

25

45

22

4

- 11

67

17

3

- 34

34

- 39

1

- 5000

- 4000

- 3000

- 2000

- 1000

0

1000

2000

3000

27-Oct 30-Oct 31-Oct 01-Nov 02-Nov 03-Nov 06-Nov 07-Nov 08-Nov 09-Nov

10

SPICES

Soybean futures (Dec) may witness a consolidation in the range of 2800-2950 levels for the third consecutive week. As arrivals are declining day by day, millers are expecting that they may not be able to procure soybean of required quantity in coming days. In adherence to that, they are procuring soybean in bulk quantities by offering higher prices to farmers. Moreover, traders are expecting decrease in arrivals from here on. Secondly, demand for soymeal from poultry industry is improving, which is providing support to soymeal prices. Amid the ongoing peak domestic demand period of soymeal, which will last until January, millers are ensuring to have sufficient stock of soybean in their inventory. The uptrend of refined soy oil futures (Dec) may get extended further towards 730 levels. It is reported that the government may be moving a step closer to raising the import duty edible oils for the second time this year. A group of ministers had suggested raising import duty on refined edible oils to 45% and on crude palm oil to 35% from 25.5% and 15.5%. CPO futures (Nov) is likely to trade higher & test 580 levels. According to traders, sellers are quoting higher prices for RBD palmolein as they are expecting that Indian government would increase import duty on edible oils. Mustard futures (Dec) is looking bullish as it has the potential to test 4100-4200 levels, taking support near 3925 levels. The disparity in crushing of mustard seed has reduced to Rs 100-125 per tonne from Rs 500 a month ago. Subsequent to which millers may increase the capacity of mustard seed crushing in coming days.

OIL AND OILSEEDS

OTHER COMMODITIES

Kapas futures (April) may surpass the resistance near 910 levels & gain further to test 920-925 levels. Procurement has started in some parts of Gujarat because of low prices. CCI is paying MSP plus the Rs 500 per quintal bonus announced by the state, thereby effectively putting the procurement prices at Rs 4,750. Procurement in other states, including Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, will begin once the arrivals pick up. As per the latest update, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has already purchased some 62,000 bales of cotton at Minimum Support Price (MSP) so far in this season. The target is to buy some 100 lakh bales this season. Mentha oil futures are on a 3 year high buoyed by its strong fundamentals of lower stocks & output this season, but the rally is likely to take a pause as the counter is witness correction due to profit booking from higher levels & remain below 1800 levels. Total Special margin of 20% on long (buy) side will be imposed on all existing/ running contracts of Mentha Oil with effect from Monday November 13, 2017. Wheat futures (Dec) may face resistance near 1800-1820 levels & the upside may remain limited as the supply side is sufficient to meet the upcoming demand of marriage season. The government had 23.9 million tons of wheat in its stocks at the beginning of this month, up 27.1% on year. The rise in wheat stocks can be attributed to higher procurement and lesser sale under the open market scheme. Government's wheat procurement for the current marketing year (Apr-Mar), was nearly 35% higher on year at 30.8 mln tn, as the country produced a record high crop in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun).

Bullion counter can witness volatile movement as movement of greenback and US CPI data along global risk sentiment to give further direction to the prices. Lack of major events and uncertainty about Trump's tax plan, political development in Middle-east and US stance on North Korea has resulted in volatility. Local currency rupee can move in the range of 64.20-65.40 levels. Gold can face resistance near $1310 in COMEX and 30000 levels in MCX while it has support near $1240 in COMEX and 28800 levels in MCX. Silver has key support near 38500 in MCX and $16.20 in COMEX. And it has resistance near 40800 levels in MCX and $17.50 in COMEX. US Senate revealed its own version of the tax bill last week and it proposes a delay in the implementation of a corporate-tax cut until 2019. The US bond yield curve is close to its flattest level in a decade suggesting inflation may not pick up soon and warrant only slow rate hikes. India's gold demand was down 24 per cent year-on-year to 146 tonnes in Q3 2017, as the newly-introduced goods and services tax (GST) and anti-money laundering legislation (AML) around jewellery retail transactions deterred gold buyers. The latest figures were hit by “significantly” lower inflows into gold exchange traded funds, which fell to 19 tonnes from 144.3 tonnes, and a softer jewellery market in India. The recent high profit arrests in Saudi Arabia and war of words between Iran and Saudi has increased political uncertainty in Middle-east.

BULLIONS

Crude oil prices may remain on a firm path but profit booking at higher levels cannot be denied as it can move in the range of 3600-3850 levels in MCX. Crude oil got support from the increased expectations that OPEC may extend production cuts, reports of increase in Chinese crude import quotas, optimism about US economy and tensions between Saudi and Iran over Yemen. However, weighing on price is unexpected rise in US crude oil stocks and record high crude production in US. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that U.S. crude production rose to 9.620 million barrels per day during the week of Nov. 3, the highest weekly output on record. Saudi has asked its citizens to leave Lebanon where its proxy war with Iran continues. Prices also got some support after crackdown on Saudi royals which has created sense of instability in world's largest oil producer. This has increased geopolitical risk premium in prices. Saudi Arabia plans to cut crude exports by 120,000 barrels per day in December from November. Natural gas may remain can head higher on renewed demand as the heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Overall it can trade in the range of 190-218 levels in MCX. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration “Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 3.775 trillion cubic feet (tcf)” That figure is 180 bcf, or around 4.5%, lower than levels at this time a year ago and 41 bcf, or roughly 1.1%, below the five-year average for this time of year.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Base metal counter can move with mixed bias as outcome of China retail sales and industrial production coupled with US retail sales data to give further direction to the prices. Meanwhile China's industry group plans to upgrade its industrial sector with "smart" factories, green manufacturing and transport, which is expected to increase annual copper demand by 232,000 tonnes by 2025. Copper may remain move in the range of 435-455 levels. China imports of unwrought copper, stood at 330,000 tonnes last month, up from 290,000 tonnes a year ago, but down from 430,000 tonnes in September. Zinc can move in the range of 202-218 levels. Zinc prices may come under pressure amid signs of easing tightness in physical market and decline in spot premiums in China. Meanwhile Zinc premiums in bonded zones fell by $10 to $165, the lowest since June. Lead can move in the range of 156-172 in MCX. Nickel may remain in the range of 765-835. Meanwhile, expectations that nickel demand for use in lithium ion batteries would increase as electric car buying can give support to the prices. Nickel inventories in LME-registered warehouses have risen gradually from a low of around 360,000 tonnes late last year to 382,356 tonnes last week pointing to a well supplied market. Aluminum prices may trade in the range of 130-145 levels in MCX. China's environmental crackdown will force shutdown of polluting smelters over winter will push global market of aluminium into deficit. With inventories in China still rising and futures curve in contango, there does not seem to be a shortage of Aluminium.

The phase of correction may continue to be seen in turmeric futures (Dec) & in days to come and the counter can test 6800-6700 levels. The sentiments are bearish as there are sufficient stocks available in the market followed by 48,500 MT with AP Markfed, which they earlier procured in the month of May. Moreover, production in key growing states of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Telangana is expected to rise 20% in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) owing to favourable weather conditions and ample rainfall. Jeera futures (Dec) is expected to break the support near 18800 levels & descend further towards 18000 levels. This time of the year is considered as off season since major participants avoid any bulk deals and opt 'wait and watch' as the further market trend depends on the sowing report. Whereas, there are prospects of sowing to increase this year as farmers can switch from other competitive crops to Jeera due to higher prices this year. Sowing of Jeera has started in the major producing belts of Gujarat and Rajasthan but large numbers of farmers are still waiting for the temperature to fall, as suitable temperature for Jeera crop is 25-30 degree Celsius. The current average temperature in Gujarat and Rajasthan is 33-35 Degree. Coriander futures (Dec) will possibly continue to face resistance near 5200 levels & the upside may remain capped. The market participants have turned cautious as the sowing has started in the major producing belts of the country which are Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Area under Coriander in Rajasthan is expected to increase this year as the crop does not need much water as compared to Mustard.

BASE METALS

11

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMODITY

SILVER MCX (DECEMBER) contract closed at `39641 on 09th Nov'17. The contract made its high of

`41927 on 08th Sep'17 and a low of `36141 on 10th July'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of

the commodity is currently at ̀ 39596.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49. One can buy in the

range of ̀ 39500 - 39300 with the stop loss of ̀ 39000 for a target of ̀ 40100.

TURMERIC NCDEX (DECEMBER) contract closed at 7062 on 09th Nov'17. The contract made its high of

`7548 on 25th Oct'17 and a low of ̀ 6892 on 08th Nov'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the

commodity is currently at ̀ 7112.4.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40. One can buy in the

range of ̀ 7045 - 7000 with the stop loss of ̀ 6930 for a target of ̀ 7200.

`

GOLD MCX (DECEMBER) contract closed at 29661 on 09th Nov'17. The contract made its high of 30629

on 08th Sep'17 and a low of `29069 on 03rd Nov'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the

commodity is currently at ̀ 29451.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52. One can buy in the

range of ̀ 29500 – 29400 with the stop loss of ̀ 29200 for a target of ̀ 29850.

` `

SILVER MCX (DECEMBER)

TURMERIC NCDEX (DECEMBER)

GOLD MCX (DECEMBER)

NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra).

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING

PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS

NCDEX SOYABEAN DEC 2875.00 27.09.17 Down 3077.00 - 3000.00 3100.00

NCDEX JEERA DEC 18880.00 27.09.17 Down 18985.00 - 19800.00 20000.00

NCDEX REF.SOY OIL DEC 715.65 23.08.17 UP 660.85 695.00 - 690.00

NCDEX RM SEEDS DEC 3981.00 12.10.17 Sideways

NMCE PEPPER MINI DEC 42842.00 11.05.17 Down 55957.00 - 45000.00 46000.00

NMCE RUBBER DEC 12547.00 13.07.17 Sideways

MCX MENTHA OIL DEC 1731.80 20.07.17 UP 980.00 1600.00 - 1550.00

MCX CARDAMOM DEC 972.20 27.09.17 Down 1100.50 - 1000.00 1050.00

MCX SILVER DEC 39641.00 10.08.17 UP 39213.00 38500.00 - 38000.00

MCX GOLD DEC 29661.00 10.08.17 UP 29176.00 29200.00 - 29000.00

MCX COPPER NOV 444.45 29.06.17 UP 388.25 440.00 - 435.00

MCX LEAD NOV 164.20 20.07.17 UP 141.25 157.00 - 155.00

MCX ZINC NOV 209.70 17.10.17 Sideways

MCX NICKEL NOV 799.20 12.10.17 UP 740.30 760.00 - 750.00

MCX ALUMINIUM NOV 135.95 10.08.17 UP 129.80 134.00 - 132.00

MCX CRUDE OIL NOV 3738.00 27.09.17 UP 3416.00 3650.00 - 3600.00

MCX NATURAL GAS NOV 209.00 09.11.17 UP 209.00 195.00 - 190.00

TREND SHEET

*Closing as on 09.11.17

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

With some upside in bullion, energy and a few agri commodities counter, CRB closed up for

nonstop three week while sideways to weak performance of industrial metals capped the

upside. Dollar index couldn't stay above the resistance of 95 and saw profitbooking from higher

side. The dollar slipped versus the yen on the back of sudden fall in Japanese equities from

multi-decade peaks dampened risk sentiment. Both gold and silver saw revival in the prices

after a fall of three week. Though report from WGC gave indication of poor offtake of physical

gold. Gold demand slid to its lowest in eight years in the last quarter as jewellery buying fell

and inflows into bullion-backed exchange traded funds dried up, data from the World Gold

Council showed on last Thursday. Overall demand fell by 9 percent to 915 tonnes; it's weakest

since the third quarter of 2009. Crude prices ignited again for various reasons and closed few

points below the level of 3700 in MCX. Options trading for crude oil jumped to the highest in

five months as money managers backed OPEC's effort to rebalance the oil market and as

regional tensions flared in the Middle East. Both WTI and Brent near-month futures prices

reached their highest levels in two years this week amid turbulence in the Middle East. The

upheaval comes as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is also preparing

for a major meeting on Nov. 30, in which it may agree to extend crude-production cuts beyond

their current expiration at the end of March in an effort to end a global oil glut. Natural gas

prices soared on seasonal demand amid fall in inventories.

Few government decisions stimulated quick move in some agri commodities. 50% import duty

on yellow peas gave jump to the chana prices but the relief was only temporary and later on we

saw correction in the prices. The government on Wednesday doubled the import duty on wheat

to 20 per cent to curb cheap shipments and gave positive price signal to farmers in the ongoing

Rabi season. In cotton counter, we noticed good upside move. Kapas broke its long

consolidation and touch the higher side of 906. Selling was there in guar counter while spices

saw further correction except cardamom. Cardamom saw lower level buying after witnessing a

steep fall of many weeks.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

COMMODITY UNIT 02.11.17 09.11.17 DIFFERENCEQTY. QTY.

BARLEY MT 391 10 -381

CASTOR SEED MT 24639 25035 396

CHANA MT 100 190 90

CORIANDER NEW MT 6943 4241 -2702

GUARGUM MT 19110 18721 -389

GUARSEED MT 16417 17581 1164

JEERA NEW MT 5137 4811 -326

PEPPER MT 30 30 0

RM SEED MT 5057 1626 -3431

SOYBEAN MT 50546 70646 20100

TURMERIC MT 1775 706 -1069

WHEAT MT 6619 6169 -450

COMMODITY UNIT 01.11.17 09.11.17 DIFFERENCE

QTY. QTY.

CARDAMOM MT 3.30 3.70 0.40

GOLD KGS 53.00 53.00 0.00

GOLD MINI KGS 5.60 65.50 59.90

GOLD GUINEA KGS 7.70 7.68 -0.02

MENTHA OIL KGS 1689851.70 1549490.25 -140361.45

SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 35527.62 36131.55 603.94

•Saudi Arabia plans to cut crude exports by 120,000 barrels per day in December from November.

•U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan left the door open to a possible delay in implementing lower tax rates for corporations.

•Japan's core machinery orders tumbled in September, a decline that companies expect to continue into October-December.

•China's gold holdings were unchanged for a 12th consecutive month as the PBOC has refrained from adding gold to its reserves.

•The government imposed import duty of 50% on peas to check cheaper shipments from countries like Canada.

•NCDEX has revised the tick size of Undecorticated Cotton seed oilcake - Akola Futures contract (Symbol: COCUDAKL) from Rs.1 to 50 paisa, which will be applicable w.e.f November 21, 2017 in all the running contracts i.e., December 2017, January 2018, February 2018 and March 2018 and yet to be launched contracts.

•Additional margin of 5% on long (buy) and short (sell) side has been imposed on all existing/ running contracts of Mentha Oil w.ef November 09, 2017.

•The Indian Commodity Exchange has delivered 26.27 carats of diamonds worth `83 lakh as settlement on the expiry of its first diamond contract.

•Global demand for gold fell 9% to 915 tonnes in the last quarter, its weakest since the third quarter of 2009.

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

12

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

16.97%

7.62%

4.47%3.54%

2.69%

- 4.67%- 3.78% - 3.55%

- 2.57%

- 0.31%

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

MENTHA OIL

NATURAL GAS

CRUDE OIL MINI CARDAMOM LEAD PEPPER

CASTORSEED ALUMINIUM

NICKEL MINI

COPPER MINI

3.02%

2.07%

1.56% 1.47%1.33%

-2.47% -2.41% -2.35% -2.30%

-1.91%

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

KAPAS WHEATCRUDE PALM

OILSOY OIL

DEGUMMED SOYOIL CORIANDER CHANA SHANKARKAPAS PEPPER

GUAR SEED 10MT

COMMODITY

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 03 09.11.17 CHANGE%

ALUMINIUM LME CASH 2165.00 2078.00 -4.02

COPPER LME CASH 6914.50 6777.00 -1.99

LEAD LME CASH 2475.00 2504.00 1.17

NICKEL LME CASH 12560.00 12230.00 -2.63

ZINC LME CASH 3265.50 3232.00 -1.03

GOLD COMEX DEC 1269.20 1287.50 1.44

SILVER COMEX DEC 16.83 16.98 0.89

LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX DEC 55.64 57.17 2.75

NATURAL GAS NYMEX DEC 2.98 3.20 7.38

.11.17

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE

02.11.17 09.11.17

ALUMINIUM 1186450 1177300 -9150

COPPER 273675 263425 -10250

NICKEL 381444 380628 -816

LEAD 149250 146775 -2475

ZINC 254025 241575 -12450

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 03.11.17 09.11.17 CHANGE(%)

Soybean CBOT JAN Cent per Bushel 986.75 985.00 -0.18

Soy oil CBOT DEC Cent per Pound 34.42 35.14 2.09

CPO BMD JAN MYR per MT 2806.00 2809.00 0.11

Sugar LIFFE DEC 10 cents per MT 385.10 395.70 2.75

13

SPOT PRICES (% change) S&P GSCI…….. Measure of investment performance as well as an economic indicator

The S&P GSCI (formerly the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. It is a tradable index that is readily available to market participants of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The index was originally developed in 1991, by Goldman Sachs. In 2007, ownership transferred to Standard & Poor's, who currently own and publish it. The index contains a much higher exposure to energy than other commodity price indices such as the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index.

Index composition

The S&P GSCI contains as many commodities as possible, with rules excluding certain commodities to maintain liquidity and investability in the underlying futures markets. The index currently comprises 24 commodities from all commodity sectors - energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products and precious metals. The wide range of constituent commodities provides the S&P GSCI with a high level of diversification, across subsectors and within each subsector.

The diversity of the S&P GSCI's constituent commodities, along with their economic weighting allows the index to respond in a stable way to world economic growth, even as the composition of global growth changes across time. When industrialized economies dominate world growth, the metals sector of the GSCI generally responds more than the agricultural components. Conversely, when emerging markets dominate world growth, petroleum-based commodities and agricultural commodities tend to be more responsive.

Economic weighting

The S&P GSCI is a world-production weighted index that is based on the average quantity of production of each commodity in the index, over the last five years of available data.

Production weighting is a quintessential attribute for the index to be a measure of investment performance. This is achieved by assigning a weight to each asset based on the amount of capital dedicated to holding that asset just as market capitalization is used to assign weights to components of equity indices. Since the appropriate weight assigned to each commodity is in proportion to the amount of that commodity flowing through the economy, the index is also an economic indicator.

-1.74

-0.91

-0.79

-0.66

-0.49

-0.43

-0.35

-0.34

0.07

0.34

0.48

0.57

1.02

1.21

2.05

2.60

-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)

RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)

CORIANDER (KOTA)

COTTON (KADI)

JEERA (UNJHA)

SUGAR (KOLKATA)

WHEAT (DELHI)

PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)

SOYABEAN (INDORE)

TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)

GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)

BARLEY (JAIPUR)

MUSTARD (JAIPUR)

CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)

GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)

COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA)

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USD/INR 64.79 65.32 64.76 65.10

EUR/INR 75.21 75.83 75.21 75.70

GBP/INR 84.81 86.07 84.81 85.33

JPY/INR 56.76 57.45 56.74 57.39

News Flows of last week

07th Nov Euro zone Retail Sales Recover In September

07th Nov U.S. Consumer Credit Jumps More Than Expected In September

08th Nov Japan Current Account Falls To Y2.271 Trillion In September

09th Nov China's Inflation Accelerates In October

09th Nov Germany's Exports Fall Less Than Forecast

09th Nov U.S. Jobless Claims Climb More Than Expected To 239,000

EUR/INR (NOV) contract closed at 75.70 on 09th November'17. The contract made its high of 75.83 on 08th November'17 and a low of 75.21 on 06th November'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 75.87.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.37.One can buy above 76.15 for a target of 77.15 with the stop loss of 75.65.

(* NSE Currency future, Source: Spider, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)

Market Stance

Indian rupee tanked to a one week low as against the dollar in the week gone

by, owing to high demand for the American currency from importers amid

political upheaval in Saudi Arabia. Forex market sentiment endured a near-

term crisis as nervousness took centre-stage stemming from a sharp spike in

crude prices to the highest level since July 2015 as an anti- corruption purge

launched by of Saudi Arabia's crown prince stoked supply disruption fears.

Adding heaviness, the domestic bourses succumbed to a massive profit-taking

and wiped out last week gains on renewed worries about the inflation outlook

and also renewed geopolitical uncertainty. From global front, Asian currencies

remain subdued as investors pondered the impact on the dollar stemming

from potential delays to US President Donald Trump's major tax reform plans.

EUR/INR

USD/INR (NOV) contract closed at 65.10 on 09th November'17. The contract made its high of 65.32 on 08th November'17 and a low of 64.76 on 07th November'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 65.01.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.31. One can sell below 65.00 for the target of 64.40 with the stop loss of 65.30

GBP/INR (NOV) contract closed at 85.33 on 19th November'17. The contract made its high of 86.07 on 08thNovember'17 and a low of 84.81 on 06th November'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 85.63.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.50. One can buy above 86.00 for a target of 87.00 with the stop loss of 85.50.

JPY/INR (NOV) contract closed at 57.39 on 09th November'17. The contract made its high of 57.45 on 09th November'17 and a low of 56.74 on 06th November'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 57.26.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.12. One can buy above 57.60 for a target of 58.50 with the stop loss of 57.15

USD/INRTechnical Recommendation

Economic gauge for the next week

Date Currency Event Previous

14th Nov GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 314th Nov EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 0.614th Nov EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) 2.515th Nov GBP Claimant Count Change 1.715th Nov USD Retail Sales (MoM) 1.615th Nov USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.515th Nov USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.216th Nov GBP Retail Sales (MoM) -0.816th Nov EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) 0.416th Nov EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.416th Nov USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1.90116th Nov USD Initial Jobless Claims 23916th Nov USD Industrial Production (MoM) 0.317th Nov USD Housing Starts (MoM) 1.12717th Nov USD Housing Starts Change -4.7

GBP/INR JPY/INR

14

IPO

IPO NEWS

*Closing price as on 9-11-2017

Company Sector M.Cap (In Rs Cr.) Issue Size (in Rs Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss (from Issue price)

Reliance Nippon Life Insurance 17,399.16 1542.00 6-Nov-17 252.00 294.00 287.20 13.97

General Insurance Corp General Insurance 69496.17 11373.00 25-Oct-17 912.00 850.00 792.25 -13.13

Indian Energy Exchange Power Trading 4841.21 1000.00 23-Oct-17 1650.00 1500.00 1596.25 -3.26

MAS Financial Services Financial Services 3245.01 460.00 18-Oct-17 459.00 660.00 593.65 29.34

Godrej Agrovet Agri Business 10471.33 1157.00 16-Oct-17 460.00 621.00 545.30 18.54

Prataap Snacks Limited FMCG 2770.16 482.00 5-Oct-17 938.00 1250.00 1181.15 25.92

SBI Life Insurance Company Insurance 65430.00 8400.00 3-Oct-17 700.00 733.30 654.30 -6.53

ICICI Lombard Insurance 30789.04 5701.00 27-Sep-17 661.00 650.00 678.25 2.61

Capacit'e Infraprojects Ltd Infrastructure 2445.45 400.00 25-Sep-17 250.00 399.00 360.20 44.08

Matrimony.com Limited Online Matchmaking 1966.42 501.00 21-Sep-17 985.00 985.00 870.30 -11.64

Dixon Technologies Consumer Durable 3027.20 600.00 18-Sep-17 1766.00 2725.00 2673.00 51.36

Bharat Road Network Ltd Infrastructure 1439.32 600.00 18-Sep-17 205.00 204.90 171.45 -16.37

Apex Frozen Foods Ltd Sea Food 1429.53 153.00 4-Sep-17 175.00 199.90 457.45 161.40

Cochin Shipyard ltd Shipping 7654.56 1442.00 11-Aug-17 432.00 435.00 563.10 30.35

Security and Intelligence Security Services 6171.33 780.00 10-Aug-17 815.00 879.00 843.55 3.50

Salasar Techno Engineering Steel & Allied 388.16 35.00 25-Jul-17 108.00 259.15 292.35 170.69

AU Small Financ Finance 17745.78 1912.00 10-Jul-17 358.00 525.00 624.30 74.39

GTPL Hathway Ltd Entertainment 1678.51 484.00 4-Jul-17 170.00 170.00 149.25 -12.21

CDSL Services 3739.53 524.00 30-Jun-17 149.00 250.00 357.85 140.17

ERIS Lifesciences Health Care 7968.81 1741.00 29-Jun-17 603.00 612.00 579.55 -3.89

*

IPO TRACKER

15

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

* Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application.

* For Application of Rs.50 Lac & above, Contact to Head Office.

* Email us at fd@smcindiaonline.com

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

(FOR TRUST ONLY) (FOR WOMEN ONLY)

20000/- BUT

40000/-

IN MONTHLY

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

MUTUAL FUND

Industry AUM rose to Rs.21.41 lakh crore in Oct 2017As per data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), the assets under management (AUM) of mutual fund industry rose to Rs. 21.41 lakh crore in Oct 2017 compared with Rs. 20.40 lakh crore in Sep 2017. Overall inflow in mutual fund schemes stood at Rs. 51,148 crore in Oct as against outflow of Rs. 16,604 crore in the preceding month. Income funds saw inflow of Rs. 40,845 crore while equity and equity-linked saving scheme (ELSS) saw an infusion of Rs. 16,002 crore. However, liquid funds saw net outflow of Rs. 13,261 crore during the period.

AMFI to request SEBI on modification of scheme consolidation guidelinesAccording to media reports, the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) is likely to approach the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) requesting modification of certain regulations of the scheme consolidation guidelines. Among other things, AMFI is planning to request the market regulator on modification of norms related to market capitalization, Macaulay duration and inclusion of gold as an asset class in the multi asset funds. On debt funds, AMFI will request the market regulator to consider modified duration instead of Macaulay duration.

HDFC Mutual Fund to launch housing opportunities fund on Nov 16; offer to end Nov 30HDFC Mutual Fund will launch HDFC Housing Opportunities Fund- Series 1 on Nov 16 and it will remain open for subscription until November 30. The close-ended thematic equity fund will allocate at least 80 percent of its assets in equity and equity related instruments of entities engaged in and/or expected to benefit from the growth in housing and its allied business activities. The fund house will also invest up to 20 percent in equity shares of companies other than in housing and its allied business activities or in debt and money market instruments. The scheme also has the provision to invest up to 10 percent in units issued by Real Estate Investment Trusts or REITs & Infrastructure Investment Trusts InvITs.

PNB to exit mutual fund businessPunjab National Bank will sell its entire stake in Principal PNB Asset Management Company. The Principal group has exercised call option to buy the entire stake in the company. Consequent upon the exercise of call option by the Principal Group, the Board in its meeting held on Nov 2 has approved to offload its entire stake in Principal PNB Asset Management Company and Principal trustee Company Pvt Ltd to the Principal group.

Essel Finance makes a foray in mutual fund businessPost-acquisition of Peerless Funds Management in Aug 2017, Essel Finance, a part of the conglomerate Essel Group announced its entry to the Rs. 21 trillion mutual fund industry. The Managing Director of Essel Finance said that the company has been exploring an opportunity to acquire a mid-sized fund house.

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund appoints Mr. Abhaya Hota as an Independent DirectorMotilal Oswal Mutual Fund has announced appointment of Mr. Abhaya Hota as an independent director on the Board of Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Limited, Investment Manager to Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund (MOMF) with effect from Oct 24, 2017. The fund house has also announced appointment of Mr. Nagesh Pinge as an independent director on the board of Motilal Oswal Trustee Company Limited with effect from Oct 24.

Reliance Nippon AMC lists at 17% premiumThe equity shares of Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd (RNAM) were listed at Rs 295.9, a premium of Rs 43.9 or 17.4% (on the upper band of the IPO price of Rs. 252). RNAM was admitted to dealings on the BSE in the list of 'B' Group Securities. The stock codes for RNAM on the BSE and NSE respectively are 540767 and RNAM. RNAM is an India based asset management company. Company is promoted by Reliance Capital Limited and Nippon Life. Reliance Capital is an RBI registered non-banking finance company with business interests in asset management and mutual funds, life, health and general insurance, commercial and home finance, stock broking, wealth management services, and distribution of financial products, asset reconstruction and proprietary investments.

NEW FUND OFFER

Scheme Name Axis Multicap Fund - Regular Plan (G)

Fund Type Open-Ended

Fund Class Growth

Opens on 30-Oct-2017

Closes on 13-Nov-2017

Investment Objective To generate long term capital appreciation by investing in a diversified portfolio of equity and equity related instruments across

market capitalization.

Min. Investment Rs. 5000

Fund Manager Shreyash Devalkar / Jignesh Gopani

Scheme Name Sundaram Value Fund - Series X - Regular Plan (G)

Fund Type Close Ended

Fund Class Growth

Opens on 03-Nov-2017

Closes on 17-Nov-2017

Investment Objective To provide long term capital growth by investing primarily in well-diversified portfolio of companies accumulated at a discount

to its fair value after taking into consideration various factors such as earnings, asset Value, free cash flow and dividend yield.

Min. Investment Rs. 5000

Fund Manager S Krishnakumar / Dwijendra Srivastava / Madanagopal Ramu / Shiv chanani

17

Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 09/11/2017Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

Principal Tax Savings Fund 215.93 31-Mar-1996 345.00 11.95 16.07 36.04 16.41 17.48 2.22 1.08 0.17 52.59 38.86 5.28 3.27

IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund - Reg - G 55.71 26-Dec-2008 661.74 8.36 14.25 34.58 17.35 21.35 1.90 0.86 0.14 53.32 28.67 13.05 4.96

Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund - Reg - G 16.22 28-Dec-2015 526.46 6.91 14.52 33.81 N.A 29.53 1.94 0.94 0.22 64.19 29.63 3.76 2.41

Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) Fund - G 65.58 21-Sep-2005 8960.11 8.70 15.53 33.26 14.03 16.75 2.25 1.06 0.12 57.25 27.45 11.48 3.82

L&T Tax Advantage Fund - Reg - G 54.99 27-Feb-2006 2445.64 6.97 10.87 30.76 15.71 15.67 1.83 0.88 0.14 52.68 35.25 2.40 9.67

Motilal Oswal MOSt Focused Long Term F - Reg - G 16.94 21-Jan-2015 597.63 1.54 8.70 30.00 N.A 20.68 1.88 0.82 0.19 62.30 30.73 N.A 6.96

Aditya Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96 - G 30.30 06-Mar-2008 3761.41 8.02 12.98 29.16 17.49 12.13 1.76 0.83 0.13 40.59 57.90 0.18 1.34

TAX Fund Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

L&T Emerging Businesses Fund - Reg - G 26.77 12-May-2014 1503.08 11.52 15.63 46.46 26.66 32.51 2.15 0.84 0.34 0.96 54.62 26.76 17.66

DSP BlackRock Natural Reso. & New Ene. F - Reg - G 36.64 25-Apr-2008 274.18 9.43 20.86 42.12 24.6 14.57 2.34 0.93 0.53 78.12 12.06 0.53 9.29

IDFC Sterling Equity Fund - Reg - G 54.66 07-Mar-2008 1598.83 9.16 14.44 41.18 18.68 19.18 2.17 0.89 0.21 25.32 50.52 16.12 8.04

HDFC Small Cap Fund - Growth 42.19 03-Apr-2008 1228.28 14.04 15.77 41.03 20.44 16.16 2.16 0.92 0.21 1.58 57.35 30.46 10.61

Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 43.02 16-Sep-2010 4301.13 13.62 14.62 40.75 23.25 22.63 2.38 0.93 0.23 3.12 40.43 46.08 10.37

L&T Midcap Fund - Reg - Growth 144.82 09-Aug-2004 1146.75 10.23 14.22 39.64 23.53 22.33 1.98 0.79 0.25 22.12 51.28 8.66 17.94

IDFC Focused Equity Fund - Reg - G 38.44 16-Mar-2006 335.06 6.89 17.8 39.16 12.4 12.24 1.88 0.9 0.14 45.17 27.72 5.71 21.40

EQUITY (Diversified) Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Annualised

Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till

Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Years) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Franklin India Dynamic Accrual Fund - G 59.98 05-Mar-1997 2702.15 4.98 7.84 7.85 9.53 9.58 10.22 9.04 9.87 0.22 2.70 9.95

BOI AXA Corporate Credit Spectrum Fund - Reg - G 12.95 27-Feb-2015 1245.09 6.61 6.52 7.07 9.41 9.49 N.A 10.05 7.67 0.37 2.40 10.23

Franklin India Income Opportunities Fund - G 20.14 11-Dec-2009 3149.77 4.87 6.10 7.43 9.48 9.45 9.16 9.24 12.90 0.11 2.08 9.76

Franklin India Corporate Bond Opportunities F - G 17.62 07-Dec-2011 6720.71 6.55 7.36 8.18 9.10 9.18 9.14 10.03 10.71 0.13 2.48 9.94

Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond F - Reg - G 12.65 17-Apr-2015 3296.88 3.42 5.02 6.40 9.27 8.97 N.A 9.60 11.33 0.20 2.97 8.89

Baroda Pioneer Credit Opportunities F - Reg - G 13.18 23-Jan-2015 828.18 2.57 3.90 6.14 8.60 8.91 N.A 10.37 8.42 0.32 2.90 8.23

Franklin India IBA - Growth 59.88 23-Jun-1997 969.78 4.75 5.59 7.05 8.74 8.77 8.92 9.17 11.95 0.10 2.23 8.73

INCOME FUND

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Years) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Franklin India STIP - Dir - Growth 3723.89 01-Jan-2013 8574.52 5.28 6.31 8.46 10.54 10.43 9.95 10.39 12.83 0.16 2.52 9.82

Aditya Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Dir - G 22.21 01-Jan-2013 11101.30 2.89 5.23 6.95 9.79 8.85 10.36 10.86 13.36 0.20 4.16 8.73

Kotak Flexi Debt Scheme - Dir - Growth 22.70 01-Jan-2013 1371.85 1.59 3.27 6.08 9.08 7.43 10.15 10.15 20.76 0.16 4.67 7.62

DHFL Pramerica Short Maturity F - Dir - G 32.54 02-Jan-2013 1839.87 3.29 3.77 7.19 8.91 8.77 9.74 9.90 8.35 0.29 2.55 7.98

L&T Short Term Income Fund - Dir - G 18.56 01-Jan-2013 840.20 5.23 5.52 6.94 8.88 9.28 9.59 9.45 6.48 0.36 1.57 8.23

Aditya Birla Sun Life Short Term Oppor. F - Dir - G 29.20 01-Jan-2013 5775.86 3.81 3.87 5.79 8.79 7.36 9.51 10.22 14.79 0.15 3.27 7.72

DSP BlackRock Short Term Fund - Dir - G 30.08 01-Jan-2013 4083.75 1.21 2.79 5.28 8.72 7.64 8.97 9.25 9.57 0.15 2.89 7.27

SHORT TERM FUND Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 54.55 08-Jun-2005 8133.18 4.30 11.92 23.73 13.16 14.62 1.50 0.07 55.86 9.54 1.50 33.10

ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 127.91 03-Nov-1999 17222.40 5.92 10.65 22.73 13.56 15.18 1.45 0.10 53.69 11.44 0.86 34.02

HDFC Prudence Fund - Growth 516.01 01-Feb-1994 29593.40 5.49 8.59 22.63 11.68 19.34 1.88 0.07 53.10 12.25 5.97 28.68

Mirae Asset Prudence Fund - Reg - G 13.56 29-Jul-2015 701.41 4.51 11.25 22.21 N.A 14.27 1.47 0.08 63.68 7.75 0.76 27.80

HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 148.07 11-Sep-2000 14268.40 4.13 10.08 21.76 13.87 16.99 1.44 0.08 45.13 20.51 1.58 32.78

L&T India Prudence Fund - Reg - G 25.92 07-Feb-2011 6154.21 3.75 7.23 20.95 14.17 15.13 1.38 0.06 45.41 18.14 3.04 33.41

UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 169.04 20-Jan-1995 3316.86 5.50 8.14 19.40 11.13 16.16 1.41 0.06 44.06 19.44 5.17 31.32

BALANCED

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Team SMC participating as Platinum Partner in the 5th Finbridge Expo held on 4th & 5th November 2017 at Indira Gandhi Sports Complex, New Delhi.

Mr. Ajay Garg ( Director, SMC Group) sharing his thoughts as the key speaker in the inaugural session at the conference.