A Reconciliation of Asymmetries in Trade-in-Goods ......EU Asymmetry Report 2013 data 4 2 Measures...

EU Asymmetry Report 2013 data

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A Reconciliation of Asymmetries in Trade-in-Goods Statistics Published by the UK and Other European Union Member States

Trade Statistics

3rd Floor South Central Alexander House

21 Victoria Avenue Southend-on-Sea

SS99 1AA United Kingdom

www.uktradeinfo.com

http://www.uktradeinfo.com/


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Table of Contents

1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………. 3

2 Measures of asymmetries………………………………………………………………… 4

3 UK asymmetries with the EU in 2013……………………………………………………. 6

3.1 UK arrivals asymmetries by partner country…………………………………... 6

3.2 UK arrivals asymmetries by commodity………………………………………... 8

3.3 UK dispatches asymmetries by partner country……………………………... 11

3.4 UK dispatches asymmetries by commodity………………………………...... 13

4 Conclusions………………………………………………………………………………...16

5 Annexes……………………………………………………………………………………. 17

5.1 Annex 1: HS2 Chapter Descriptions…………………………………………... 17

5.2 Annex 2: Glossary………………………………………………………………. 21


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1 Introduction

Asymmetries are the differences between the published trade statistics of partner countries. Because each country collects data on their own international trade-in-goods for both imports and exports, in theory the ‘mirror flow’ collected by the partner countries should match. In reality, it is often the case that the figures do not match and this is referred to as an ‘asymmetry’. For example, there may be a difference between what the United Kingdom (UK) records as arrivals1

from France, and France records as dispatches2 to the UK. This difference or asymmetry can be measured. For trade-in-goods between the European Union (EU) Member States, trade information is collected via the Intrastat3 survey

and is controlled by EC Statistical legislation, which aims to harmonise the

classifications and collection. However, there remain legitimate reasons why asymmetries still exist. More information can be found at asymmetries The Trade Statistics unit, in HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), carries out regular analyses of the asymmetries between the UK and the EU, and occasional analyses of the differences with other major trading partners. This information is used as part of the quality assurance work on the trade data and to investigate discrepancies. This paper is an asymmetry study covering trade between the UK and the EU for the calendar year

2013. The data used in the compilation of this report has been extracted from the Comext database,

which can be accessed via the following link:

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/newxtweb/

1 The term used to describe goods imported by an EU member state from another EU member state. 2 The term used to describe goods exported by an EU member state to another EU member state. 3 Intrastat was introduced in 1993 to replace customs declarations for trade between EU member states following the introduction of the single market.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/AboutOverseastradeStatistics/Documents/asymmetryoverview2012v1.1.pdf

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/newxtweb/


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2 Measures of Asymmetries

There are two types of asymmetries for EU trade that are referred to in this report: the arrivals asymmetry and the dispatches asymmetry. The arrivals asymmetry is the difference between the declarant country’s arrivals from the partner country and the partner country’s dispatches to the declarant country. If this asymmetry is positive it means that the declarant country’s arrivals from the partner country are greater than the partner country’s dispatches to the declarant country. The dispatches asymmetry is the difference between the declarant country’s dispatches to the partner country and the partner country’s arrivals from the declarant country. If this asymmetry is positive it means that the declarant country’s dispatches to the partner country are greater than the partner country’s arrivals from the declarant country. As an example, the UK’s arrivals asymmetry with Germany is the comparison between what the UK records as arrivals from Germany and what Germany records as dispatches to the UK. If the value of UK arrivals minus German dispatches is negative it tells us that the value of goods arriving in the UK from Germany is less than the value of goods Germany is sending to the UK. If we let D represent the declarant country and P represent the partner country, we can set out the main indicators used by Eurostat4 to calculate asymmetry. Note that for the purposes of this report the UK will always be the declarant. Indicators of Asymmetry

(1) Absolute Asymmetry:

= | Value (D) – Value (P) |

This is the absolute difference between the value of a flow and its mirror value.

(2) Relative Asymmetry (%):

= Value (D) – Value (P) X 100

0.5 (Value (D) + Value (P))

The relative asymmetry looks at the difference between the value reported by the declarant country

and the value reported by the partner country with respect to the mean of those two flows. This

method makes no assumption about which value (D or P) is the correct value and instead looks at

the asymmetry with respect to the mean of the two values.

(3) Share of Total Absolute Asymmetry (%):

= | Value (D) – Value (P) | X 100

∑ | Value (D) – Value (P) |

4 Eurostat is the statistical office of the European Union situated in Luxembourg.


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This percentage indicates the contribution a country or chapter is having on the total absolute

asymmetry within a certain flow, e.g. Chapter 45 may be responsible for 10 per cent of the total

absolute asymmetry across all chapters for UK arrivals.

Note: The values used within the tables in this report are quoted in Euros. UK declarations are made in pounds sterling and converted to Euros by Eurostat. The data that Eurostat receives from each Member State is compiled in the local currency and is then converted to Euros using a monthly exchange rate.

Unallocated trade: Whilst the vast majority of trade declared between EU member states provides detail at value, product and country levels, there is provision for member states to apply suppressions. This means that full details may be provided to Eurostat, but only to be published at a less detailed level. * For trade reported by the declarant (UK arrivals and dispatches), there is some trade ‘not allocated’ to a country. For example ‘countries & territories not specified in the framework of Intra-Community trade’ and ‘countries & territories not specified for commercial or military reasons in the framework of Intra-Community trade’ are identified as ‘unallocated’. * For trade reported by our EU partners (arrivals and dispatches), the chapter total does not add up to the country total and is therefore referred to as unallocated.


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3 UK Asymmetries with the EU, 2013

3.1 UK arrivals asymmetries by partner country

Table 3.1 shows that the largest asymmetry in arrivals is with Germany at €10.5 billion, up from a

€9.0 billion negative asymmetry in 2012. This accounted for a 31.6% share of the total absolute

asymmetry.

Further investigation shows that the total absolute asymmetry with Germany at chapter level is

€12.4 billion. Chapter 88 (Aircraft, spacecraft and parts thereof) was again the largest contributor,

accounting for 9.1% of the €12.4 billion asymmetry.

The largest relative asymmetry is with Latvia at 48.8%, although in value terms it is much lower at

€238 million. This is due to arrivals from Latvia being almost double the amount Latvia declare as

dispatches to the UK. Further investigation has revealed that the total absolute asymmetry with

Latvia at chapter level is €309million. By far the biggest reason for this asymmetry is a discrepancy

in Chapter 27 (Mineral fuels, mineral oils) where the UK arrivals figure is much larger than the

Latvian dispatches figure. This chapter alone accounts for accounts for 77.6% of the €309 million

asymmetry.

Looking at the asymmetry on the Total line it has risen from €13.0 billion in 2012 to €20.2 billion in

2013. In absolute terms it has risen from €29.0 billion in 2013 to €33.2 billion in 2014. The effect of

the additional member state (Croatia joined the EU on the 1st July 2013) on these figures is minimal

due to the fairly small trade asymmetry with this country.

As in 2012 there is a large positive asymmetry for trade ‘not allocated’ to a country. The total EU

dispatches to the UK corresponds to the sum of the dispatch figures of each individual country, but

on the arrivals side there is a large unallocated amount of €5.7 billion. This means that some goods

entering the UK are not allocated a partner country. As described previously this is due to certain

trade with countries being suppressed for reasons of confidentiality. By contrast total trade is the

total calculated by Eurostat including the confidential trade for partner countries.


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Table 3.1 Asymmetries between UK arrivals from the EU and EU dispatches to the UK (Jan - Dec 2013)

Country UK arrivals

from EU (€1000s)

EU dispatches

to UK (€1000s)

Asymmetry (€1000s)

Absolute asymmetry

(€1000s)

Share of total

absolute asymmetry

(%)

Relative asymmetry

(%)

AUSTRIA 3,358,103 3,770,607 -412,504 412,504 1.2 -11.6

BELGIUM 23,502,824 26,540,339 -3,037,515 3,037,515 9.2 -12.1

BULGARIA 434,071 469,063 -34,992 34,992 0.1 -7.7

CROATIA 144,775 205,465 -60,690 60,690 0.2 -34.7

CYPRUS 160,750 208,720 -47,970 47,970 0.1 -26.0

CZECH REPUBLIC 5,382,732 5,908,567 -525,835 525,835 1.6 -9.3

DENMARK 6,230,361 7,223,336 -992,975 992,975 3.0 -14.8

ESTONIA 215,150 294,615 -79,465 79,465 0.2 -31.2

FINLAND 2,957,195 2,916,133 41,062 41,062 0.1 1.4

FRANCE 28,023,062 30,096,398 -2,073,336 2,073,336 6.2 -7.1

GERMANY 64,964,626 75,461,760 -10,497,134 10,497,134 31.6 -15.0

GREECE 844,458 979,761 -135,304 135,304 0.4 -14.8

HUNGARY 3,056,795 3,201,759 -144,964 144,964 0.4 -4.6

IRELAND 13,899,110 13,873,481 25,629 25,629 0.1 0.2

ITALY 17,697,055 19,594,984 -1,897,929 1,897,929 5.7 -10.2

LATVIA 606,898 368,976 237,921 237,921 0.7 48.8

LITHUANIA 1,042,542 1,209,990 -167,448 167,448 0.5 -14.9

LUXEMBOURG 425,465 369,557 55,908 55,908 0.2 14.1

MALTA 127,379 107,527 19,853 19,853 0.1 16.9

NETHERLANDS 40,040,164 42,261,366 -2,221,203 2,221,203 6.7 -5.4

POLAND 9,201,143 10,035,738 -834,595 834,595 2.5 -8.7

PORTUGAL 2,277,136 2,601,762 -324,626 324,626 1.0 -13.3

ROMANIA 1,622,724 2,029,761 -407,037 407,037 1.2 -22.3

SLOVAKIA 2,127,881 2,909,617 -781,736 781,736 2.4 -31.0

SLOVENIA 376,745 445,085 -68,340 68,340 0.2 -16.6

SPAIN 14,497,318 16,428,532 -1,931,214 1,931,214 5.8 -12.5

SWEDEN 8,681,922 8,238,062 443,860 443,860 1.3 5.2

Unallocated* 5,681,327

5,681,327 5,681,327 17.1 200.0

Total 257,579,709 277,750,961 -20,171,252 33,182,373 100.0 -7.5

Source: Comext database, extracted 5th June 2015

*Unallocated is trade that is not assigned to a particular country


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3.2 UK arrivals asymmetries by commodity

Table 3.2 (a) shows the top ten chapters in order of their contribution to the total absolute

asymmetry. These chapters have the greatest difference in the value of arrivals reported by the UK

and the value of dispatches reported by the EU.

The chapter showing the greatest asymmetry was chapter 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery

and mechanical appliances). The value of UK arrivals is €2.5 billion less than the value of

dispatches from the EU in this chapter. This chapter also contributed significantly to the asymmetry

in 2012 but has risen from 6.0% in 2012 to 8.0% this year. Further analysis shows that the total

absolute asymmetry by country for this chapter is €3.2 billion, with Germany accounting for 30.9% of

this amount.

Chapter 87 (Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling-stock) did not feature in this top ten in

2012 and has therefore increased substantially.

For 2013 the top ten chapters account for 41.8% of the total absolute asymmetry in chapters, with

trade not allocated to a chapter accounting for 27.8%.

Table 3.2 (a) Top ten chapters by share of total absolute asymmetry

Chapter UK arrivals

from EU (€1000s)

EU dispatches to UK (€1000s)


Absolute Asymmetry

(€1000s)

Share of total absolute

asymmetry (%)

84 29,732,461 32,237,494 -2,505,033 2,505,033 8.0

87 42,317,582 43,953,841 -1,636,259 1,636,259 5.2

27 17,482,443 15,948,856 1,533,587 1,533,587 4.9

88 2,980,203 4,497,713 -1,517,511 1,517,511 4.9

73 3,793,926 5,096,823 -1,302,897 1,302,897 4.2

85 23,309,504 24,604,340 -1,294,835 1,294,835 4.2

99 91,344 1,191,406 -1,100,062 1,100,062 3.5

72 4,519,955 3,694,083 825,872 825,872 2.6

90 7,034,561 7,706,347 -671,786 671,786 2.2

89 175,762 810,074 -634,312 634,312 2.0

Sum of top 10 131,437,741 139,740,978 -8,303,236 13,022,155 41.8

Sum of others 126,141,968 129,336,059 -3,194,091 9,474,376 30.4

Unallocated*

8,673,925 -8,673,925 8,673,925 27.8

Total 257,579,709 277,750,961 -20,171,252 31,170,456 100.0


* Unallocated trade has not been assigned to a particular chapter


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Table 3.2 (b) shows the top ten chapters by positive relative asymmetry. Unlike the previous table which measures the largest asymmetries, this table focuses on the level of asymmetry with respect to the mean of the two flows. Chapter 93 (Arms and ammunition) still shows the largest positive relative asymmetry of 98.3%. This means that the asymmetry of €308 million is roughly equal to the mean of the two flows, i.e. the mean of the UK arrival and EU dispatch figures. Further analysis on this chapter by country does not yield interesting results as the majority of the UK arrivals figure is not allocated to a country due to suppression rules. Chapter 26 (Ores, slag and ash) is the only other positive asymmetry over 50%. Further analysis shows that the total absolute asymmetry by country is €476 million with Germany accounting for 75.7% of this amount. The largest asymmetry by value in this table is €826 million in chapter 72 (Iron and Steel). Table 3.2 (b) Top ten chapters by positive relative asymmetry

Chapter UK arrivals from

EU (€1000s) EU dispatches to

UK (€1000s) Asymmetry

(€1000s) Relative

Asymmetry (%)

93 467,722 159,554 308,168 98.3

26 729,174 280,486 448,688 88.9

97 235,868 159,851 76,017 38.4

25 434,713 334,073 100,641 26.2

11 364,783 290,388 74,395 22.7

72 4,519,955 3,694,083 825,872 20.1

47 330,991 278,028 52,964 17.4

24 389,219 333,097 56,121 15.5

74 1,752,309 1,507,111 245,198 15.0

10 1,217,163 1,053,749 163,414 14.4

Sum of top 10 10,441,897 8,090,419 2,351,478 25.4

Sum of others 247,137,812 260,986,617 -13,848,804 -5.5

Unallocated*

8,673,925 -8,673,925 -200.0

Total 257,579,709 277,750,961 -20,171,252 -7.5


* Unallocated is trade that is not assigned to a particular chapter


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Table 3.2 (c) shows the top ten chapters by negative relative asymmetry, i.e. the UK arrivals figure

is less than the value of dispatches from the EU.

The largest asymmetry is chapter 99 (Other products) with EU dispatch figures exceeding UK arrival

figures by €1.1 billion. This is a similar amount to the asymmetry in 2012 and is somewhat expected

due to the miscellaneous nature of this chapter and the fact that different member states use this

chapter in different ways.

Chapter 89 (Ships, boats and floating structures) is the second largest asymmetry in the table and

also exceeds the mean value of the two flows. Asymmetries in this chapter are not unexpected due

to the nature of changes of ownership and the timing of such changes. EU legislation allows

member states to record specific movements of goods using different methodologies and this

contributes to the disparity.

The largest asymmetry by value in this table is -€1.5 billion in chapter 88 (Aircraft, spacecraft and

parts thereof).

Table 3.2 (c) Top ten chapters by negative relative asymmetry

Chapter UK arrivals from

EU (€1000s) EU dispatches to


(€1000s) Relative

Asymmetry (%)

99 91,344 1,191,406 -1,100,062 -171.5

89 175,762 810,074 -634,312 -128.7

14 3,606 8,141 -4,535 -77.2

80 33,379 60,545 -27,167 -57.8

66 8,351 14,302 -5,951 -52.5

43 44,648 68,670 -24,022 -42.4

88 2,980,203 4,497,713 -1,517,511 -40.6

03 592,251 813,213 -220,962 -31.4

73 3,793,926 5,096,823 -1,302,897 -29.3

46 6,221 8,240 -2,019 -27.9

Sum of top 10 7,729,690 12,569,128 -4,839,438 -47.7

Sum of others 249,850,020 256,507,908 -6,657,889 -2.6

Unallocated*

8,673,925 -8,673,925 -200.0

Total 257,579,709 277,750,961 -20,171,252 -7.5


* Unallocated trade is trade that is not assigned to a particular chapter


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3.3 UK dispatches asymmetries by partner country Looking at the total line for Table 3.3 first, the total value of UK dispatches to the EU has fallen 4.1%

since 2012 to €177.2 billion and the total value of EU arrivals from the UK has fallen 1.8% since

2012 to €186.4 billion.

Table 3.3 shows that the total absolute asymmetry by country has risen from €20.8 billion in 2012 to

€26.5 billion in 2013. This increase has been largely driven by Germany with the absolute

asymmetry more than doubling from €4.8 billion in 2012 to €10.0 billion in 2013. With Germany’s

contribution to this asymmetry continuing to increase it now accounts for the 37.9% of the absolute

asymmetry by country.

An examination of the asymmetry with Germany at chapter level reveals that the total absolute

asymmetry is €14.0 billion. The chapter contributing the greatest amount (32%) to this asymmetry is

chapter 88 (Aircraft, spacecraft and parts thereof). The next largest asymmetry (23.7%) is

unallocated so it is not possible to comment further on which chapters are responsible for this.

The asymmetry with Belgium is the second highest in the table at €2.0 billion and has risen from

€1.3 billion in 2012. Looking at a breakdown by chapter the total absolute asymmetry rises to €2.4

billion with a number of chapters contributing to this. The largest contributors are chapter 27

(Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation) at 21.3% and chapter 29 (Organic

chemicals) at 12.4%.

The only asymmetry that seems to have markedly improved with respect to 2012 data is between

the UK and Sweden. This asymmetry has halved from €1.4 billion to €700 million and now

represents only 2.6% of the total absolute asymmetry.

Looking at relative asymmetries these are largest with respect to some of our smallest trading

partners. This is to be expected as the asymmetries whilst not particularly large are high relative to

the level of trade. The three largest relative asymmetries are with Malta (49.5%), Cyprus (49.2%)

and Lithuania (-49.2%) and are all in the range 200-300 million euros.


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Table 3.3 Asymmetries between UK dispatches to EU and EU arrivals from the UK (Jan - Dec 2013)

Country

UK dispatches

to EU (€1000s)

EU arrivals from UK (€1000s)


Absolute asymmetry

(€1000s)

Share of total

absolute asymmetry

(%)

Relative asymmetry

(%)

AUSTRIA 1,864,672 2,034,275 -169,603 169,603 0.6 -8.7

BELGIUM 15,987,643 17,954,872 -1,967,229 1,967,229 7.4 -11.6

BULGARIA 456,459 382,086 74,373 74,373 0.3 17.7

CROATIA 158,237 204,556 -46,319 46,319 0.2 -25.5

CYPRUS 513,548 310,645 202,904 202,904 0.8 49.2

CZECH REPUBLIC 2,206,105 2,633,199 -427,094 427,094 1.6 -17.7

DENMARK 3,400,242 3,816,561 -416,319 416,319 1.6 -11.5

ESTONIA 375,885 582,518 -206,634 206,634 0.8 -43.1

FINLAND 1,765,512 1,849,457 -83,945 83,945 0.3 -4.6

FRANCE 23,684,726 24,786,092 -1,101,367 1,101,367 4.2 -4.5

GERMANY 33,470,210 43,492,765 -10,022,554 10,022,554 37.9 -26.0

GREECE 1,070,377 1,168,462 -98,085 98,085 0.4 -8.8

HUNGARY 1,423,009 1,401,810 21,199 21,199 0.1 1.5

IRELAND 21,330,966 19,535,586 1,795,380 1,795,380 6.8 8.8

ITALY 9,650,360 9,673,655 -23,295 23,295 0.1 -0.2

LATVIA 432,068 281,989 150,079 150,079 0.6 42.0

LITHUANIA 375,818 620,985 -245,167 245,167 0.9 -49.2

LUXEMBOURG 273,757 228,497 45,260 45,260 0.2 18.0

MALTA 509,788 307,371 202,417 202,417 0.8 49.5

NETHERLANDS 28,074,600 29,039,286 -964,686 964,686 3.6 -3.4

POLAND 4,230,456 4,335,212 -104,756 104,756 0.4 -2.4

PORTUGAL 1,550,692 1,663,889 -113,196 113,196 0.4 -7.0

ROMANIA 1,076,884 1,250,511 -173,627 173,627 0.7 -14.9

SLOVAKIA 546,565 775,633 -229,068 229,068 0.9 -34.6

SLOVENIA 237,814 388,357 -150,543 150,543 0.6 -48.1

SPAIN 9,874,382 10,450,984 -576,602 576,602 2.2 -5.7

SWEDEN 6,528,942 7,224,738 -695,795 695,795 2.6 -10.1

Unallocated* 6,156,480

6,156,480 6,156,480 23.3 200.0

Total 177,226,196 186,393,989 -9,167,793 26,463,976 100.0 -5.0


* Unallocated is trade that is not assigned to a particular country


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3.4 UK dispatches asymmetries by commodity

The total absolute asymmetry by chapter is €20.4 billion, which is lower than the €26.5 billion by

country. The value of the total absolute asymmetry is not a fixed value and will vary depending on

how the data is partitioned, i.e. by country, commodity, etc.

The largest asymmetry in value terms exists in chapter 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment and

parts thereof). This chapter also accounted for the largest asymmetry in value terms in 2012,

although the asymmetry has fallen from €1.6 billion to €1.3 billion.

Looking at chapter 85 by country the total absolute asymmetry is €3.1 billion, with Germany

accounting for 32.0% of this asymmetry and Ireland accounting for 11.3%.

The top ten chapters account for 36.2% of the absolute asymmetry compared to 45.6% last year but

overall the absolute asymmetry has only dropped 4.5% to €20.4 billion. The reduction in the

asymmetry generated in the top ten chapters appears to have been partially offset by an increase in

the asymmetry from trade not allocated to a chapter.

Table 3.4 (a) Top ten chapters by share of total absolute asymmetry

Chapter UK dispatches to EU (€1000s)

EU arrivals from UK (€1000s)


Absolute asymmetry

(€1000s)

Share of total absolute

asymmetry (%)

85 11,965,764 13,216,406 -1,250,641 1,250,641 6.1

99 211,290 1,195,305 -984,015 984,015 4.8

30 12,177,868 11,305,968 871,900 871,900 4.3

27 35,019,368 34,205,378 813,990 813,990 4.0

87 15,626,757 16,335,118 -708,361 708,361 3.5

29 5,767,521 6,423,331 -655,810 655,810 3.2

40 1,864,290 2,473,355 -609,064 609,064 3.0

88 5,994,945 6,531,246 -536,302 536,302 2.6

62 2,136,137 1,626,657 509,480 509,480 2.5

61 1,888,455 1,462,763 425,692 425,692 2.1

Sum of top 10 92,652,395 94,775,526 -2,123,131 7,365,256 36.2

Sum of others 84,573,768 85,259,488 -685,720 6,645,492 32.6

Unallocated* 33 6,358,975 -6,358,942 6,358,942 31.2

Total 177,226,196 186,393,989 -9,167,793 20,369,690 100.0




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Table 3.4 (b) gives the top ten chapters by positive relative asymmetry.

In terms of values, the asymmetries in this table are far lower than the previous table but do

represent a large percentage compared to the value of trade. Chapter 93 (Arms and ammunition;

parts and accessories thereof) for example has an asymmetry in trade that is greater than the mean

of the two flows. This is likely to be largely due to differences in how the EU countries choose to

suppress trade in this particular chapter.

Chapter 67 (Prepared feathers and down and articles made of feathers or down) is the next highest

asymmetry in the table at 75.6%.

The largest asymmetry in value terms is in chapter 94 (see description in Annex 1) at €279 million.

When viewing this asymmetry by country it has an absolute value of €319 million with Ireland

(23.4%) and Germany (22.8%) being the largest contributors.

Table 3.4 (b): Top ten chapters by positive relative asymmetry

Chapter UK dispatches to

EU (€1000s) EU arrivals from


(€1000s) Relative

asymmetry (%)

93 119,085 35,511 83,574 108.1

67 28,172 12,720 15,452 75.6

53 19,885 11,647 8,238 52.3

57 184,181 108,725 75,455 51.5

54 523,712 324,762 198,951 46.9

50 18,399 13,098 5,302 33.7

66 10,734 7,672 3,061 33.3

94 1,142,932 863,877 279,055 27.8

13 58,372 44,187 14,185 27.7

12 379,265 287,572 91,693 27.5

Sum of top 10 2,484,737 1,709,770 774,966 37.0

Sum of others 174,741,427 178,325,244 -3,583,817 -2.0

Unallocated* 33 6,358,975 -6,358,942 -200.0

Total 177,226,196 186,393,989 -9,167,793 -5.0




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Table 3.4 (c) lists the top ten chapters by negative relative asymmetry.

When looking at the largest negative relative asymmetries (EU arrivals exceeding the mirror

dispatch value from the UK), there are several exceeding the value of the mean flow.

Chapter 99 has a high absolute asymmetry (featuring in Table 3.4 (a)) as well as a relative

asymmetry of -139.9%. The chapter 99 heading of ‘Other Products’ is used somewhat differently by

member states and therefore it is very likely there will be asymmetries in this chapter.

Chapter 80 (Tin and articles thereof) and chapter 26 (Ores, slag and ash) are the next highest

relative asymmetries in the table. The absolute value of the asymmetry in chapter 80 when viewed

by country is €76 million and over 90% of this can be attributed to the Netherlands and Germany.

The second largest asymmetry in the table in value terms can be found in chapter 40 (Rubber and

articles thereof). This asymmetry also features in the top ten largest absolute asymmetries in Table

3.4 (a).

Table 3.2 (c) Top ten chapters by negative relative asymmetry

Chapter UK dispatches to

EU (€1000s) EU arrivals from


(€1000s) Relative

asymmetry (%)

99 211,290 1,195,305 -984,015 -139.9

80 25,419 95,537 -70,118 -115.9

26 31,255 100,029 -68,775 -104.8

43 22,192 49,937 -27,745 -76.9

45 2,231 4,886 -2,655 -74.6

47 90,251 181,831 -91,580 -67.3

08 232,058 432,593 -200,535 -60.3

17 305,249 551,782 -246,533 -57.5

74 946,632 1,286,243 -339,611 -30.4

40 1,864,290 2,473,355 -609,064 -28.1

Sum of top 10 3,730,868 6,371,498 -2,640,630 -52.3

Sum of others 173,495,296 173,663,517 -168,221 -0.1

Unallocated* 33 6,358,975 -6,358,942 -200.0

Total 177,226,196 186,393,989 -9,167,793 -5.0




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4 Conclusions

UK Arrivals

For the calendar year 2013 the negative asymmetry between what the UK reports as arrivals and

the EU reports as dispatches is €20.2 billion. This has risen from €13.0 billion, an increase of

approximately 55%.

Looking at the figures for overall trade, the UK arrivals figure is €257.6 billion which is similar to last

year, but EU dispatches have increased from €270.6 billion to €277.8 billion. This is reflected in an

increasing negative asymmetry across many of the countries. The inclusion of a new country

(Croatia) has not had any significant impact on the comparison as the asymmetry with this country

is only €61 million.

The asymmetry with Germany is still the largest in value terms at €10.5 billion, increasing from €9.0

billion in 2012. The highest asymmetry with respect to the level of trade is with Latvia at 48.8% of

the mean of the two flows and €238 million in value terms.

The largest asymmetries in chapters are largely unchanged from last year with chapter 93 and

chapter 99 being the top positive and negative asymmetries respectively. This is somewhat

expected with the possibility of suppressions in arms and differing uses of a miscellaneous heading.

In terms of absolute asymmetries the second highest asymmetry in 2012 (chapter 84) is now the

highest in 2013.

UK Dispatches

For the calendar year 2013 the negative asymmetry between what the UK reports as dispatches

and the EU reports as arrivals is €9.2 billion. This has risen from €4.9 billion in 2012, an increase of

approximately 88%.

In terms of the actual trade figures, UK dispatches stands at €177.2 billion down from €184.9 billion,

whilst reported EU arrivals has fallen from €189.8 billion to €186.4 billion. The smaller fall in

reported EU arrivals versus the UK dispatches figure has increased the negative asymmetry and

this is largely due to the trade figures with the partner country Germany. Whilst Germany reported

arrivals from the UK at a similar level to 2012, the UK reported dispatches to Germany of €33.5

which is €4.5 billion less than in 2012.

The largest asymmetry with respect to the level of trade is with Malta at 49.5% of the mean of the

two flows or €202 million in value terms. There are a number of other countries showing a similar

level of relative asymmetry such as Cyprus, Lithuania and Slovenia.

In terms of asymmetries by chapter, the top chapter in terms of absolute, positive and negative

asymmetries (chapters 85, 93 and 99 respectively) remain unchanged from the 2012 data.


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5 Annexes

5.1 Annex 1: HS 2 Chapter Descriptions

Chapter Description

01 LIVE ANIMALS

02 MEAT AND EDIBLE MEAT OFFAL

03 FISH AND CRUSTACEANS, MOLLUSCS AND OTHER AQUATIC INVERTEBRATES

04 DAIRY PRODUCE; BIRDS' EGGS; NATURAL HONEY; EDIBLE PRODUCTS OF

ANIMAL ORIGIN, NOT ELSEWHERE SPECIFIED OR INCLUDED

05 PRODUCTS OF ANIMAL ORIGIN, NOT ELSEWHERE SPECIFIED OR INCLUDED

06 LIVE TREES AND OTHER PLANTS; BULBS, ROOTS AND THE LIKE; CUT

FLOWERS AND ORNAMENTAL FOLIAGE

07 EDIBLE VEGETABLES AND CERTAIN ROOTS AND TUBERS

08 EDIBLE FRUIT AND NUTS; PEEL OF CITRUS FRUITS OR MELONS

09 COFFEE, TEA, MATÉ AND SPICES

10 CEREALS

11 PRODUCTS OF THE MILLING INDUSTRY; MALT; STARCHES; INSULIN; WHEAT

GLUTEN

12 OIL SEEDS AND OLEAGINOUS FRUITS; MISCELLANEOUS GRAINS, SEEDS AND

FRUIT; INDUSTRIAL OR MEDICINAL PLANTS; STRAW AND FODDER

13 LAC; GUMS, RESINS AND OTHER VEGETABLE SAPS AND EXTRACTS

14 VEGETABLE PLAITING MATERIALS; VEGETABLE PRODUCTS NOT ELSEWHERE

SPECIFIED OR INCLUDED

15 ANIMAL OR VEGETABLE FATS AND OILS AND THEIR CLEAVAGE PRODUCTS;

PREPARED EDIBLE FATS; ANIMAL OR VEGETABLE WAXES

16 PREPARATIONS OF MEAT, OF FISH OR OF CRUSTACEANS, MOLLUSCS OR

OTHER AQUATIC INVERTEBRATES

17 SUGARS AND SUGAR CONFECTIONERY

18 COCOA AND COCOA PREPARATIONS

19 PREPARATIONS OF CEREALS, FLOUR, STARCH OR MILK; PASTRYCOOKS'

PRODUCTS

20 PREPARATIONS OF VEGETABLES, FRUIT, NUTS OR OTHER PARTS OF PLANTS

21 MISCELLANEOUS EDIBLE PREPARATIONS

22 BEVERAGES, SPIRITS AND VINEGAR

23 RESIDUES AND WASTE FROM THE FOOD INDUSTRIES; PREPARED ANIMAL

FODDER

24 TOBACCO AND MANUFACTURED TOBACCO SUBSTITUTES

25 SALT; SULPHUR; EARTHS AND STONE; PLASTERING MATERIALS, LIME AND

CEMENT

26 ORES, SLAG AND ASH

27 MINERAL FUELS, MINERAL OILS AND PRODUCTS OF THEIR DISTILLATION;

BITUMINOUS SUBSTANCES; MINERAL WAXES


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28 INORGANIC CHEMICALS; ORGANIC OR INORGANIC COMPOUNDS OF PRECIOUS

METALS, OF RARE-EARTH METALS, OF RADIOACTIVE ELEMENTS OR OF

ISOTOPES

29 ORGANIC CHEMICALS

30 PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS

31 FERTILISERS

32 TANNING OR DYEING EXTRACTS; TANNINS AND THEIR DERIVATIVES; DYES,

PIGMENTS AND OTHER COLOURING MATTER; PAINTS AND VARNISHES; PUTTY

AND OTHER MASTICS; INKS

33 ESSENTIAL OILS AND RESINOIDS; PERFUMERY, COSMETIC OR TOILET

PREPARATIONS

34 SOAP, ORGANIC SURFACE-ACTIVE AGENTS, WASHING PREPARATIONS,

LUBRICATING PREPARATIONS, ARTIFICIAL WAXES, PREPARED WAXES,

POLISHING OR SCOURING PREPARATIONS, CANDLES AND SIMILAR ARTICLES,

MODELLING PASTES, 'DENTAL WAXES' AND DENTAL PREPARATIONS WITH A

BASIS OF PLASTER

35 ALBUMINOIDAL SUBSTANCES; MODIFIED STARCHES; GLUES; ENZYMES

36 EXPLOSIVES; PYROTECHNIC PRODUCTS; MATCHES; PYROPHORIC ALLOYS;

CERTAIN COMBUSTIBLE PREPARATIONS

37 PHOTOGRAPHIC OR CINEMATOGRAPHIC GOODS

38 MISCELLANEOUS CHEMICAL PRODUCTS

39 PLASTICS AND ARTICLES THEREOF

40 RUBBER AND ARTICLES THEREOF

41 RAW HIDES AND SKINS (OTHER THAN FURSKINS) AND LEATHER

42 ARTICLES OF LEATHER; SADDLERY AND HARNESS; TRAVEL GOODS,

HANDBAGS AND SIMILAR CONTAINERS; ARTICLES OF ANIMAL GUT (OTHER

THAN SILKWORM GUT)

43 FURSKINS AND ARTIFICIAL FUR; MANUFACTURES THEREOF

44 WOOD AND ARTICLES OF WOOD; WOOD CHARCOAL

45 CORK AND ARTICLES OF CORK

46 MANUFACTURES OF STRAW, OF ESPARTO OR OF OTHER PLAITING

MATERIALS; BASKETWARE AND WICKERWORK

47 PULP OF WOOD OR OF OTHER FIBROUS CELLULOSIC MATERIAL; RECOVERED

(WASTE AND SCRAP) PAPER OR PAPERBOARD

48 PAPER AND PAPERBOARD; ARTICLES OF PAPER PULP, OF PAPER OR OF

PAPERBOARD

49 PRINTED BOOKS, NEWSPAPERS, PICTURES AND OTHER PRODUCTS OF THE

PRINTING INDUSTRY; MANUSCRIPTS, TYPESCRIPTS AND PLANS

50 SILK

51 WOOL, FINE OR COARSE ANIMAL HAIR; HORSEHAIR YARN AND WOVEN FABRIC

52 COTTON

53 OTHER VEGETABLE TEXTILE FIBRES; PAPER YARN AND WOVEN FABRICS OF

PAPER YARN

54 STRIP AND THE LIKE OF MAN-MADE TEXTILE MATERIALS

55 MAN-MADE STAPLE FIBRES


19

56 WADDING, FELT AND NONWOVENS; SPECIAL YARNS; TWINE, CORDAGE,

ROPES AND CABLES AND ARTICLES THEREOF

57 CARPETS AND OTHER TEXTILE FLOOR COVERINGS

58 SPECIAL WOVEN FABRICS; TUFTED TEXTILE FABRICS; LACE; TAPESTRIES;

TRIMMINGS; EMBROIDERY

59 IMPREGNATED, COATED, COVERED OR LAMINATED TEXTILE FABRICS; TEXTILE

ARTICLES OF A KIND SUITABLE FOR INDUSTRIAL USE

60 KNITTED OR CROCHETED FABRICS

61 ARTICLES OF APPAREL AND CLOTHING ACCESSORIES, KNITTED OR

CROCHETED

62 ARTICLES OF APPAREL AND CLOTHING ACCESSORIES, NOT KNITTED OR

CROCHETED

63 OTHER MADE-UP TEXTILE ARTICLES; SETS; WORN CLOTHING AND WORN

TEXTILE ARTICLES; RAGS

64 FOOTWEAR, GAITERS AND THE LIKE; PARTS OF SUCH ARTICLES

65 HEADGEAR AND PARTS THEREOF

66 UMBRELLAS, SUN UMBRELLAS, WALKING-STICKS, SEAT-STICKS, WHIPS,

RIDING-CROPS AND PARTS THEREOF

67 PREPARED FEATHERS AND DOWN AND ARTICLES MADE OF FEATHERS OR OF

DOWN; ARTIFICIAL FLOWERS; ARTICLES OF HUMAN HAIR

68 ARTICLES OF STONE, PLASTER, CEMENT, ASBESTOS, MICA OR SIMILAR

MATERIALS

69 CERAMIC PRODUCTS

70 GLASS AND GLASSWARE

71 NATURAL OR CULTURED PEARLS, PRECIOUS OR SEMI-PRECIOUS STONES,

PRECIOUS METALS, METALS CLAD WITH PRECIOUS METAL, AND ARTICLES

THEREOF; IMITATION JEWELLERY; COIN

72 IRON AND STEEL

73 ARTICLES OF IRON OR STEEL

74 COPPER AND ARTICLES THEREOF

75 NICKEL AND ARTICLES THEREOF

76 ALUMINIUM AND ARTICLES THEREOF

78 LEAD AND ARTICLES THEREOF

79 ZINC AND ARTICLES THEREOF

80 TIN AND ARTICLES THEREOF

81 OTHER BASE METALS; CERMETS; ARTICLES THEREOF

82 TOOLS, IMPLEMENTS, CUTLERY, SPOONS AND FORKS, OF BASE METAL;

PARTS THEREOF OF BASE METAL

83 MISCELLANEOUS ARTICLES OF BASE METAL

84 NUCLEAR REACTORS, BOILERS, MACHINERY AND MECHANICAL APPLIANCES;

PARTS THEREOF

85 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT AND PARTS THEREOF; SOUND

RECORDERS AND REPRODUCERS, TELEVISION IMAGE AND SOUND

RECORDERS AND REPRODUCERS, AND PARTS AND ACCESSORIES OF SUCH

ARTICLES


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86 RAILWAY OR TRAMWAY LOCOMOTIVES, ROLLING-STOCK AND PARTS

THEREOF; RAILWAY OR TRAMWAY TRACK FIXTURES AND FITTINGS AND

PARTS THEREOF; MECHANICAL (INCLUDING ELECTRO-MECHANICAL) TRAFFIC

SIGNALLING EQUIPMENT OF ALL KINDS

87 VEHICLES OTHER THAN RAILWAY OR TRAMWAY ROLLING-STOCK, AND PARTS

AND ACCESSORIES THEREOF

88 AIRCRAFT, SPACECRAFT, AND PARTS THEREOF

89 SHIPS, BOATS AND FLOATING STRUCTURES

90 OPTICAL, PHOTOGRAPHIC, CINEMATOGRAPHIC, MEASURING, CHECKING,

PRECISION, MEDICAL OR SURGICAL INSTRUMENTS AND APPARATUS; PARTS

AND ACCESSORIES THEREOF

91 CLOCKS AND WATCHES AND PARTS THEREOF

92 MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS; PARTS AND ACCESSORIES OF SUCH ARTICLES

93 ARMS AND AMMUNITION; PARTS AND ACCESSORIES THEREOF

94 FURNITURE; BEDDING, MATTRESSES, MATTRESS SUPPORTS, CUSHIONS AND

SIMILAR STUFFED FURNISHINGS; LAMPS AND LIGHTING FITTINGS, NOT

ELSEWHERE SPECIFIED OR INCLUDED; ILLUMINATED SIGNS, ILLUMINATED

NAME-PLATES AND THE LIKE; PREFABRICATED BUILDINGS

95 TOYS, GAMES AND SPORTS REQUISITES; PARTS AND ACCESSORIES THEREOF

96 MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED ARTICLES

97 WORKS OF ART, COLLECTORS' PIECES AND ANTIQUES

99 OTHER PRODUCTS


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5.2 Annex 2: Glossary

Acquisition fraud Goods are imported from another EU Member State by a trader who then goes missing without completing a VAT return after selling the goods to an internal buyer. The ‘missing trader’ therefore has a VAT free supply of goods, as no payment of the VAT due is made on the goods. See Carousel fraud

Arrivals Goods imported into an EU Member State from another EU Member State.

Asymmetries Differences between the trade recorded by countries, e.g. the difference between what the United Kingdom records as an arrival from Germany and what Germany records as a dispatch to the United Kingdom.

Carousel fraud Similar to Acquisition fraud in the first stage, but the goods are not sold for consumption on the home market. Rather, they are sold through a series of companies and then re-exported to another country, hence the goods move in a circular pattern or ‘carousel’.

Comext Eurostat’s Trade Statistics database, which contains standardised trade data from all EU Member States.

Dispatches Goods exported from an EU Member State to another EU Member State.

Diversion Fraud The ostensibly legitimate freight consignments of duty suspended excise goods moving between warehouses in different EU Member States but which never arrive at the stated destination, either in dispatch Member State (inward diversion) or in the partner Member State (outward diversion). Instead the goods are diverted on the home market without payment of duty.

Exports Goods exported to non EU countries, but often used to describe EU trade as well.

Imports Goods imported from non EU countries, but often used to describe EU trade as well.

Intrastat Survey of trade in goods between EU Member States.

MTIC Missing Trader Intra-Community (VAT Fraud), see Carousel fraud.


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Statistical value On export, the value of the goods at the place and time they leave the statistical territory of the exporting Member State. On import, the value of goods at the place and time they enter the statistical territory of the importing Member State.

Threshold The Intrastat system has thresholds including an exemption threshold (above which traders must submit declarations giving details of their trade with the rest of the EU). In the UK there is also a delivery terms threshold (a simplification where only traders above this threshold must submit details on delivery terms and costs in order to calculate statistical value).

Transit Trade Goods may be allocated to the wrong partner country because they are in fact in transit from one country to another but declared in error by an intermediate Member State trader.

Triangular Trade In triangular trade there are three countries involved, for example, A sells goods to B, B sells goods to C and A dispatches the goods to C. The goods go direct from the original seller to the final buyer and do not follow the financial flow.

A Reconciliation of Asymmetries in Trade-in-Goods ......EU Asymmetry Report 2013 data 4 2 Measures...

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