A Project Management System Based on SRI Early Alert System (SEAS) Tom Boyce Director of Knowledge...

A Project Management System Based on SRI Early Alert System (SEAS)


Tom BoyceDirector of Knowledge Development

Artificial Intelligence CenterSRI International

Menlo Park, [email protected]

NSP SeminarApril 26, 2001

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Today and Tomorrow

Today: John Chambers, CEO, Cisco Systems Inc. “I can now close my books in 24

hours. I’ve known for a month what my earning are for this weekend. I know my expenses, my profitability, my gross margins, my components. What people haven’t got yet is that this will be the biggest payback application of the Internet.”

“Because once I have my data in that format, every one of my employees can make decisions that might have had to come all the way to the president. And after the quarterly close, an individual product-line manager can see exactly what the gross margins are on his or her products.”

Source: “The 21st Century Corporation, the Creative Economy”, Business Week, 21-28 August 2000

Tomorrow: The opinions on which

decisions were based and the evidence that supported those opinions will be as readily available as the data summarizing the resulting financial performance.

It will be possible to review how opportunities were missed, how threats were averted, how projections were made, how assessments of progress were made, and if best practice was/is being followed.

It will be possible to record and communicate how decisions are made that determine the future success of a project or a company.

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What’s New?

Question: What new technology can provide a better solution and why is that important??

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DARPA’s Project Genoais sponsoring the development of SEAS

SEAS: SRI Early Alert System SEAS initial development sponsored by

Statoil Early warning tool for project management Prototype application conceived and

developed (1989-1990) Development under Project Genoa

Being generalized and applied to crisis warning for national security

Multi-year effort (began late 1997) SEAS converted to a web-based client-

server architecture incorporating user driven navigation and visualization

Version 4.1.5 on line Field deployment summer of 2001

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Key SEAS Differentiators

SEAS Structured Argumentation (opinion)

Externalization and transparency of thinking and ideas

Improves rigor of analysis Speeds analysis Rapid comprehension and comparison

Corporate Memory (best practice) Repository of opinions and evolution of thinking,

not just access to facts Premise decisions are grounded on opinions

Collaborative Environment (communication) Asynchronous co-authoring and critical review Use of best practice as established by others Simultaneous access, across all browser clients,

with little or no systems integration

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Structured Argumentation

Structured arguments & templates record analytic products and methods

Templates structure and guide analytic thinking encouraging higher fidelity reasoning

Cascaded templates support deeper reasoning where the analyst determines that it is desirable

Structured arguments are easily communicated, explained, and compared

Structured arguments record lines of reasoning allowing users to drill down to supporting documentary evidence, its relevance, the answers it induces, and the rationale for those answers

Graphical depictions of structured arguments speed comprehension and comparison

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Corporate Memory

A knowledge base of analytic products (arguments), analytic methods (templates), indexed by the situations to which they applied

Arguments are the opinions that drove decisions

Templates capture best practice Expanded by analysts as a by-

product during productive use of the tool rather than being required before the tool becomes useful

Queries against corporate memory retrieve arguments/templates that were applied to similar situations

Summaries of retrieved arguments/templates allow one to quickly understand the thinking of the past and how it might apply to the present

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Collaboration

Web server architecture Simultaneous access Across all browser clients Little or no systems integration

Published arguments/templates are guaranteed to be both stable and persistent The audience has simultaneous

read access The co-authors have

simultaneous write access, while unpublished, & read access thereafter

Memos attached to arguments/templates provide a means for users to communicate asynchronously critiques, instructions, to-do, ...

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SEAS Version 4.1.5 is Currently Operational and Accessible via the Internet

Collaborating with Current Team

Collaborating with Historical Team WWW

WWW Browser

DecisionMaking

Corp.Memory

CurrentArguments/Templates

HistoricalArguments/Templates SEAS Server

WWW Browser WWW BrowserWWW Browser

Historical Trend

Prediction

SEAS Applied toProject Management:

Illustrative Cases

SEAS Applied toProject Management:

Illustrative Cases

Case 1: R&D ProjectsCase 2: Capital Projects

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“Driver checklists” for assessing project outlook are developed from past experience of what went well and what went wrong.

PROJECT DANGERDANGER

OKOKATTENTIONATTENTION DANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGER

Key Outlook Areas

TechnicalApproach

Staff

ValueCreation

Contractors

Schedule

Cost

ATTENTIONATTENTION

Managing Projects by “Looking Forward through the Windshield”

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Case 1:R&D Project Portfolios are Inherently Risky; Some Projects will Fail

Terminate or Redirect

EffectiveProject

Management

Contact withCustomer& Market

CommercialSuccess

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Case 1: Checklists for R&D Project Assessment

Dimension 1: Project Management

SCHEDULE OUTLOOK? 1.1.1 COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE? 1.1.2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE? 1.1.3 SUPPORTING EFFORTS?

BUDGET OUTLOOK? 1.2.1 COMPLETED ON BUDGET? 1.2.2 REMAINING ON BUDGET? 1.2.3 CONTINGENCIES?

TECHNICAL APPROACH OUTLOOK? 1.3.1 TECHNICAL INNOVATION? 1.3.2 PROTOTYPE OPERATIONAL? 1.3.3 TECHNICAL PROBLEMS?

RESOURCES OUTLOOK? 1.4.1 STAFF? 1.4.2 EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES? 1.4.3 FUNDS?

Dimension 2: Project Results

END USE COST OUTLOOK? 2.1.1 COST REQUIREMENTS? 2.1.2 COSTS WITHIN PLAN? 2.1.3 COSTS COMPETITIVE?

END USE PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK? 2.2.1 PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS? 2.2.2 PERFORMANCE WITHIN PLAN? 2.2.3 PERFORMANCE COMPETITIVE?

END USE MARKET OUTLOOK? 2.3.1 USED AS PLANNED? 2.3.2 BENEFITS UNCHANGED? 2.3.3 RETURN ON INVESTMENT?

CONTACT WITH CUSTOMER? 2.4.1 CONTACT WITH MARKETING? 2.4.2 CONTACT WITH OPERATIONS? 2.4.3 RELATIONSHIP WITH OPERATIONS?

Based on 100’s of past projects

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Case 1: R&D Project ManagementChecklist Converted to SEAS Template

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Case 1: Project Results Checklist Converted to a SEAS Template

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Case 1: R&D ProjectIllustrative Situation

Situation: R&D project to develop to commercial product to be produced by Electronic Materials Division. Project is nearing completion.

Month 10 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on startup of project. Answers to most questions indicate “green” (OK) condition: “on track” Answers to 1.1.2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE question and 1.2.1 COMPLETED ON

BUDGET question indicate “yellow” (caution) condition: “project leader will handle” Month 11 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses out look for project success based on 2nd

month of project. Answer to 1.2.1 COMPLETED ON BUDGET question remains “yellow”: project leader

still working to resolve the situation. Answer to 1.1.2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE question goes from yellow to “red” (early

alert) condition: “project leader requests help to resolve the situation.” Month 12 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on 3rd

month of project. Answer to 1.1.2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE question goes from from “red” to “green”:

“project leader with the help of others has resolved the situation.” Answer to 2.2.3 PERFORMANCE COMPETITIVE question goes from “green” to

“yellow”: “project leader has a new problem that he will handle.”

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Case 1: R&D CaseIllustrative SEAS Monthly Reports

Month 10 ReportStarburst

Summary Table Summary Table Summary Table


Month11 ReportStarburst

InternalProject

ManagementEffectiveness

Outlook

End User Results

SatisfactionOutlook

Time Remaining Time Remaining Time Remaining

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Case 1: R&D Project IllustrativeSituation

Drilldown Example for Month 11

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Case 2: Capital Projects Encounter Risks During Every Phase

FeasibilityStudy

ProjectDefinition

BasicEngin-eering

Detail.Engin &Procure.

Fabricat.& Erect.

Comm-ission

TechSupport

OwnerRequirements

OwnerSatisfaction

Home OfficeEngineering

Outlook

SiteConstruction

Outlook

Project OutlookChecklists

During Phases 4 & 5

Use history from past projects (what went right and what went wrong?)

to develop forward looking checklists for the project team

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SEAS Template for Capital Project Assessment

Phase 4: Engineering Outlook?

SCHEDULE OUTLOOK? 1.1.1 MILESTONES ON SCHEDULE? 1.1.2 PROCUREMENT LEAD TIME? 1.1.3 CRITICAL PATH RELATIONSHIPS?

BUDGET OUTLOOK? 1.2.1 LABOR RATES & AMOUNTS? 1.2.2 MATERIALS & SERVICES? 1.2.3 ESCALATION & INFLATION?

PERMITS AND CONTRACTS OUTLOOK? 1.3.1 PERMIT TIMING? 1.3.2 CONTRACTOR SCOPE & COST? 1.3.3 CHANGE ORDERS?

EXTERNAL RELATIONS OUTLOOK? 1.4.1 REGULATORY? 1.4.2 COMMUNITY? 1.4.3 LABOR UNIONS?

Phase 5: Site Construction Outlook?

SPECIFICATIONS COMPLETENESS OUTLOOK? 2.1.1 ENGINEERING SPECIFICATIONS? 2.1.2 PERFORMANCE SPECIFICATIONS? 2.1.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE & INSPECTION?

FIELD RESOURCE READINESS OUTLOOK? 2.2.1 LABOR WORK RULES & STRIKES? 2.2.2 EQUIPMENT & CONSUMABLE DELIVERY? 2.2.3 FABRICATION OF CONSTRUCTION AIDS?

FIELD ENGINEERING OUTLOOK? 2.3.1 SHOP DRAWING ERRORS? 2.3.2 PROCEDURE CERTIFICATIONS? 2.3.3 CHANGE ORDERS?

HEALTH, SAFETY & ENVIRON OUTLOOK? 2.4.1 WORKPLACE HEALTH & SAFETY? 2.4.2 H,S&E AT COMMISSIONING?? 2.4.3 H,S&E POST COMMISIONING?

Checklists based on 100’s of past projects

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Case 2: Capital ProjectIllustrative Situation

Situation: Capital project to develop petrochemical processing plant near a refinery. Project is just starting.

Month 1 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on startup of project. Answers to most questions indicate “green” (OK) condition: “on track” Answers to 1.4.1 REGULATORY RELATIONS question and 2.4.2 PROCEDURES

CERTIFICATION question indicate “yellow” (caution) condition: “project leader will handle”

Month 2 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses out look for project success based on 2nd month of project. Answer to 1.4.1 REGULATORY RELATIONS question goes from “yellow” to”green”:

project leader has resolved the situation. Answer to 2.4.2 PROCEDURES CERTIFICATION question goes from yellow to “red” (early

alert) condition: “project leader requests help to resolve the situation.” Month 3 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on 3rd

month of project. Answer to 2.4.2 PROCEDURES CERTIFICATION question goes from from “red” to

“green”: “project leader with the help of others has resolved the situation.” Answer to 1.1.2 PERFORMANCE SPECIFICATIONS question goes from “green” to

“yellow”: “project leader has a new problem that he will handle.”

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Case 2: Capital Projects Illustrative SEAS Monthly Reports


Summary Table Summary Table Summary Table



Home OfficeEngineering

SiteConstruction

Home OfficeOutlook?

Home OfficeOutlook?

Home OfficeOutlook?

SiteOutlook?

SiteOutlook?

SiteOutlook?

Certification CertificationCertification

PerformanceSpecificationsRegulatoryRegulatory

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Case 2: Capital ProjectIllustrative Situation Drilldown for Month 1

Argument: Capital Project Home OfficeIllustrative Case: Month 1

REGULATORY: Are regulatory relations satisfactory?

None of the regulatory relations are according to plan Few of the regulatory relations are according to planMost of the regulatory relations are according to planAlmost all of the regulatory relations are according to planAll of the regulatory relations are according to plan

A new director of the state energy regulatory agency has been appointed; his energy conservation ideas, which may apply to our project, are stringent.

Conclusions Conclusions

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SEAS Provides Structured Arguments

Questionwith

Amplification

Multiple-choice

Answers

Exhibit

Documentary Evidence

Rationale

Multiple-choice question answered directly

by the user Rationale

Reason the user answered as they did

Documentary Evidence Documents whose

relevance to the question has been recorded

Exhibits Documents that

are potentially relevant to answering the question

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oil

price

tanker

producers

Iran

U.S.

OPEC

Multidimensional argument summary

New information available

Unidimensional argument

Cascaded arguments

Supporting documents

Supporting critical path

analysis

Supporting query structure

SEAS Provides a Corporate Memory

Discovery tools are used to create cascaded arguments, with the analyst choosing where more in-depth reasoning is warranted

Cascaded arguments communicate complex analytic reasoning - not just data

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SEAS Provides a Collaborative Environment

Custom argument summaries allow users to quickly determine What the argument

is about What drives the

conclusion

Criteria

Summary

Drivers

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Creating a transparent and learning project team environment

Anticipating and solving problems to keep projects on the road to success

PROJECT

OKOK

Solution: By Project Team

- Contingency Plan- Re-Planning Not Required

Solution: With Senior Executive

- Possible Re-Planning- Approved by Executives

DANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERATTENTIONATTENTIONATTENTIONATTENTION

SEAS Represents the State of the Art in Web-Based Project Management



Tom BoyceDirector of Knowledge Development

Artificial Intelligence CenterSRI International

Menlo Park, [email protected]

NSP SeminarApril 26, 2001

A Project Management System Based on SRI Early Alert System (SEAS) Tom Boyce Director of Knowledge...

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