A presentation to Auckland BIDs...Building Auckland A presentation to Auckland BIDs Presented by...
Transcript of A presentation to Auckland BIDs...Building Auckland A presentation to Auckland BIDs Presented by...
Building AucklandA presentation to Auckland BIDs
Presented by David NormanChief Economist, Auckland Council19 August 2019
Visit www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz – Chief Economist Unit
• Headline drivers
• Housing
• Non-residential construction
• Infrastructure
What I’m covering
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
• 290,000 more people (2 Taurangas) in 10 years
• Construction
• Professional services
• Tourism
We’re a fast-growing city
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
• Everything else to service these people
• Central city
• But also huge growth in the south
We’re a fast-growing city
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
• Auckland likely still adding 26,000 plus people a year
• Total pop’n now over 1.7 million
• But internal emigration stronger
Migration – poor data but strong message
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
• Peaked at 11% during house price growth
• Currently 4%
Retail
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
Spending up big = jobs
• Growth more uncertain, especially domestic and China
Tourism
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
And maybe flattening elsewhere
Housinghysteria
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
Affordability v the retail boost
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
“Scary” numbers
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
Household debt to income ratio
A brief history of Australasian house prices
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
234%180%
204%
194%191%183%
Peak growth
Decline
-1.1%-15.4%
-9.6%
-0.9%-10.7%-0.2%
Australasian population growth
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
• Resident demand has 2 components:
• Changes in preferences
• New residents added
Housing supply response
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
• Auckland has consented too few new dwellings for arrivals, let alone preference changes
Aussie building for non-residents, growth & preferences
Too few new dwellings
Supply is responding but there’s a lot to do
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
Multi-units are complex
• Multi-unit developments take longer to get consented
• Took off from Jan 2018
• Up 197% since December 2017
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
Supply by area – 13 months ago
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
Supply by area – today
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
Regular updates are available
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
• For more on these topics, see here.
• Google:“Chief Economist Auckland Council”
• Or email [email protected]
Recent growth in non-res consenting
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
• Where are we housing the new 160,000 workers?
• Floor areas up 95% in 2 years
• Excludes Commercial Bay
Transport
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
• $28 billion ATAP
• RFT – imperfect but it’s a start
FULSS
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
• $21 billion over 30 years (not fully funded)
• Plus schools, hospitals and other central govt services worth billions
Hmmm, we might want to stage some of these costs
Structure Plans –Drury and Pukekohe
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
Drury
Where are these people going to work?
$2+ billion funding gap
Structure Plans
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
What about brownfields?
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
Dwellings consented, brown v greenfield, 12-month rolling average
Source: Chief Economist Unit, Auckland Council; Statistics New Zealand
• Latent capacity
• How long is a piece of string?
How are we going to skill this?
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs
Any questions?
Building Auckland: A presentation to Auckland BIDs