A Perspective From China

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Colonel Mac ColemanFormer Air Attaché, Beijing

A Perspective From China

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Overview

Introduction Fundamental Elements of Durable National Power

People Resources Geostrategic Location

Instruments of National Power Political Economic Diplomatic Military

Summary/Conclusion

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Introduction

Cheng Yu – “OLD CHINESE SAYING”Cheng Yu – “OLD CHINESE SAYING” Four character idiom universally used to capture an idea, Four character idiom universally used to capture an idea,

a truism, or a facet of culture. a truism, or a facet of culture.

“ “ZAI LIN CHUANG HEI”ZAI LIN CHUANG HEI”

“ “Toward the Neighbors, Dark Windows”Toward the Neighbors, Dark Windows”

““WHY WOULD YOU TELL ANYBODY WHAT YOU’RE WHY WOULD YOU TELL ANYBODY WHAT YOU’RE REALLY THINKING?”REALLY THINKING?”

Describes China in fundamentally important ways Describes China in fundamentally important ways

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Fundamental Elements of Durable National Power

THE PEOPLE – “REN MIN”THE PEOPLE – “REN MIN” POPULATIONPOPULATION• 1,300,000,000 “Ren Kou” in 20061,300,000,000 “Ren Kou” in 2006• 1,454,000,000 by 2040 – then decreases1,454,000,000 by 2040 – then decreases• Gov’t policies to shape society for long-termGov’t policies to shape society for long-term• One-child policy designed to age poorer ChinaOne-child policy designed to age poorer China• De facto **Two Chinas**De facto **Two Chinas**• 1. 350,000,000 with cell phones, education1. 350,000,000 with cell phones, education• 2. 950,000,000 “lao bai xing” – peasants2. 950,000,000 “lao bai xing” – peasants

• Movement from #2 China to #1 China sustainsMovement from #2 China to #1 China sustains the growing economy with cheap laborthe growing economy with cheap labor

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Population Density

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THE PEOPLE – “REN MIN”THE PEOPLE – “REN MIN”

EDUCATIONEDUCATION• #1China stresses advanced, technical education #1China stresses advanced, technical education • #1 China now has large pool of technical workers#1 China now has large pool of technical workers• Uneven education exacerbates the “Two Chinas” Uneven education exacerbates the “Two Chinas”

disparitiesdisparities• One Child Policy - Unlucky Seven Syndrome in both One Child Policy - Unlucky Seven Syndrome in both

Chinas pressures youth to succeedChinas pressures youth to succeed


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THE PEOPLE - “REN MIN”THE PEOPLE - “REN MIN”

COHESION -- A Civilization, not a Nation StateCOHESION -- A Civilization, not a Nation State ZHONG GUO – A Central Kingdom view of worldZHONG GUO – A Central Kingdom view of world 5,000 years of history – Stone Age to Modern Age5,000 years of history – Stone Age to Modern Age 92% Han Chinese – minorities around fringe92% Han Chinese – minorities around fringe One written language, diminishing dialectsOne written language, diminishing dialects Strong sense of being ‘Chinese” in both ChinasStrong sense of being ‘Chinese” in both Chinas Patience to suffer big disasters and bad dynastiesPatience to suffer big disasters and bad dynasties Far more Chinese than CommunistFar more Chinese than Communist


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PRIMARY RESOURCESPRIMARY RESOURCES

4% OF WORLD’S ENERGY4% OF WORLD’S ENERGY • Mercantilist approach to ensure supply of energy Mercantilist approach to ensure supply of energy

and raw materialsand raw materials• High sulfur coal – 16 of 20 dirtiest cities in worldHigh sulfur coal – 16 of 20 dirtiest cities in world• Limited petroleum – low quality diesel fuelLimited petroleum – low quality diesel fuel• Hydroelectric power is limited, regionalHydroelectric power is limited, regional• Natural gas burgeoning potential Natural gas burgeoning potential


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WATER: 2WATER: 2ndnd LOWEST PER CAPITA IN WORLD LOWEST PER CAPITA IN WORLD • Massive pollution Massive pollution • 80% unfit even for agricultural use80% unfit even for agricultural use• Waterborne disease largest killer of infants Waterborne disease largest killer of infants • Wasteful agricultural practicesWasteful agricultural practices• Three Gorges Dam may silt up in 15 yearsThree Gorges Dam may silt up in 15 years• Uneven distribution – Floods or DroughtUneven distribution – Floods or Drought• $One trillion, 30 years to clean it up $One trillion, 30 years to clean it up

PRIMARY PRIMARY RESOURCESRESOURCES

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U.S. & China River Comparison

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China has 40% of U.S. farmlandChina has 40% of U.S. farmland• Antiquated methods, peasant dominatedAntiquated methods, peasant dominated• Profligate use of water and fertilizerProfligate use of water and fertilizer• Decreasing productivityDecreasing productivity• Betting future on “super rice” hybridsBetting future on “super rice” hybrids

PRIMARY RESOURCESPRIMARY RESOURCES

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Farmland Comparison

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LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATIONLOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION• NeighborsNeighbors• Coastlines, HarborsCoastlines, Harbors• SLOCSSLOCS• ALOCSALOCS

GEOSTRATEGIC LOCATIONGEOSTRATEGIC LOCATION

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Geostrategic Comparison

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Instruments of National Power

POLITICALPOLITICAL ECONOMICECONOMIC DIPLOMATICDIPLOMATIC MILITARYMILITARY

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POLITICAL - STRONGESTPOLITICAL - STRONGEST• Retrenched Communist dictatorship Retrenched Communist dictatorship • Party membership #1 factor to success in Party membership #1 factor to success in

all aspects of Chinese societyall aspects of Chinese society• Ultimate masters at information controlUltimate masters at information control• Party legitimacy hinged on two promises:Party legitimacy hinged on two promises:• Sustained economic growthSustained economic growth• Inclusion of Taiwan into China Inclusion of Taiwan into China

sovereigntysovereignty

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ECONOMIC - GROWING, BUT VULNERABLEECONOMIC - GROWING, BUT VULNERABLE• Burgeoning, but still in transitionBurgeoning, but still in transition• Many corrupt, state owned enterprisesMany corrupt, state owned enterprises• Wealth is still concentrated, but now privatelyWealth is still concentrated, but now privately• More $200k earners in China than in U.S.More $200k earners in China than in U.S.• Slow internal, self-sustaining wealth productionSlow internal, self-sustaining wealth production• Gov’t controlled Mercantilism vs Free MarketGov’t controlled Mercantilism vs Free Market• Must overcome lack of fundamental resources Must overcome lack of fundamental resources

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DIPLOMATIC - Tied to Long-Held CultureDIPLOMATIC - Tied to Long-Held Culture• All nations bow to Middle KingdomAll nations bow to Middle Kingdom• Tough negotiations a Chinese traitTough negotiations a Chinese trait• Patience to endure status quo is strong Patience to endure status quo is strong

diplomatic suitdiplomatic suit• Today’s China is new on the world sceneToday’s China is new on the world scene

• 1949 civil war did not open up China1949 civil war did not open up China• 1979 opening after Cultural Revolution1979 opening after Cultural Revolution

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MILITARY - SUSTAINS OTHER INSTRUMENTSMILITARY - SUSTAINS OTHER INSTRUMENTS

• Integral part of society and politicsIntegral part of society and politics• Prioritized missions:Prioritized missions:

• Loyalty to the Communist PartyLoyalty to the Communist Party• Maintain political activity in societyMaintain political activity in society• ModernizeModernize• Defend countryDefend country

• Not an expeditionary forceNot an expeditionary force

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PLA Oath of Office

I am a Chinese People’s Liberation Army serviceman,I am a Chinese People’s Liberation Army serviceman,

I swear to obey Chinese Communist Party leadershipI swear to obey Chinese Communist Party leadership,,

To wholeheartedly serve the people, obey commands,To wholeheartedly serve the people, obey commands,

To strictly observe rules, courageously fight, To strictly observe rules, courageously fight,

To not fear to sacrifice my life, To not fear to sacrifice my life,

To be faithful to all assigned responsibilities, To be faithful to all assigned responsibilities,

To strive to train ardently to kill the enemy’s strengths,To strive to train ardently to kill the enemy’s strengths,

To quickly fulfill my assigned duties in all circumstances, To quickly fulfill my assigned duties in all circumstances,

To never betray the Motherland,To never betray the Motherland,

And to never betray my fellow servicemen. And to never betray my fellow servicemen.

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Communist Party Oath

I volunteer to join the Chinese Communist Party,I volunteer to join the Chinese Communist Party,To uphold Party principles,To uphold Party principles,To carry out the obligations of a party member,To carry out the obligations of a party member,To execute Party decisions,To execute Party decisions,To abide by Party discipline,To abide by Party discipline,To keep Party secrets,To keep Party secrets,To be loyal to the Party,To be loyal to the Party,To work with all my energy to devote myself to To work with all my energy to devote myself to

Communism,Communism,To at all times prepare to sacrifice all for the Party To at all times prepare to sacrifice all for the Party

and the people,and the people,And to never betray the Party. And to never betray the Party.

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People’s Liberation Army

OrganizationOrganization

CapabilitiesCapabilities

TrainingTraining

EducationEducation

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PLA Organization

COMMUNIST PARTY ARMYCOMMUNIST PARTY ARMY Party controls through Central Military CommissionParty controls through Central Military Commission

Chaired by HU Jin TaoChaired by HU Jin Tao 11 Uniformed Members, including service chiefs11 Uniformed Members, including service chiefs

7 Military Regions7 Military Regions Ground force organized into 18 CAAsGround force organized into 18 CAAs Navy organized into three fleetsNavy organized into three fleets Air Force organized into 30+ DivisionsAir Force organized into 30+ Divisions 2D Artillery is strategic missile force2D Artillery is strategic missile force

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PLA Organization

POLITBUROSTANDING

COMMITTEE

CENTRALMILITARY

COMMISSION

GPD GSD GADGLD

PLA PLAAF2D

ARTILLERYPLAN MILITARY

REGIONS

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Military Regions

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Military Regions and Fleets

NSF

ESF

SSF

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PLA Capabilities

PLA still the world’s PLA still the world’s largestlargest force force Limited Limited regionalregional power projection power projection 1960s-1970s technology1960s-1970s technology

Weak C2 doctrine, targeting philosophyWeak C2 doctrine, targeting philosophy Reticence to challenge authority Reticence to challenge authority Centralized Control and ExecutionCentralized Control and Execution PLA’s prioritized missionsPLA’s prioritized missions

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PLA Capabilities

Careful Study of U.S. transformation Careful Study of U.S. transformation Substantial change to PLA force Substantial change to PLA force

planning considerations since 1991planning considerations since 1991 Major impact of DESERT STORM, Major impact of DESERT STORM,

carrier deployments near Taiwan in carrier deployments near Taiwan in 1996, US “meddling” in Kosovo1996, US “meddling” in Kosovo

Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOMIRAQI FREEDOM

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Exercises and Training

Scripted for successScripted for success

1990’s experimental decade1990’s experimental decade

New doctrine/regulations (New doctrine/regulations (GangyaoGangyao))

Joint exercises still difficultJoint exercises still difficult

Conscript army (2 year terms)Conscript army (2 year terms)

Political training paramountPolitical training paramount

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Equipment Trends

More self-propelled artillery, ADAMore self-propelled artillery, ADA Heavy foreign acquisition programHeavy foreign acquisition program

• Soveremenny DestroyersSoveremenny Destroyers• Kilo SS SubmarinesKilo SS Submarines• SU-27/30 AircraftSU-27/30 Aircraft• AWACS CapabilityAWACS Capability

Indigenous Destroyer and Submarine programsIndigenous Destroyer and Submarine programs Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs)Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) Newer Interceptors, Fighter-bombersNewer Interceptors, Fighter-bombers

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Professional Military Education

Officer Accession – Historically ExclusiveOfficer Accession – Historically Exclusive

Officer Accession – Currently CompetitiveOfficer Accession – Currently Competitive

Entry-Level Schooling - AcademiesEntry-Level Schooling - Academies

Mid-Level Schooling – PME Mid-Level Schooling – PME

Senior-Level Schooling – PME, TravelSenior-Level Schooling – PME, Travel

NCO corps still nascentNCO corps still nascent

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PLAN Projection Capability through 2020

CHINA

500 nm

SpratlySpratly IslandsIslands

FirstFirstIsland Island ChainChain

Some capability

Unlikely

Fully capable

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PLA Ground Force Power Projection

No Power ProjectionNo Power Projection

Logistics is constraining factorLogistics is constraining factor

MR vs. Warzone constraintsMR vs. Warzone constraints

Training weaknessesTraining weaknesses

Jointness weaknessesJointness weaknesses

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PLAAF Power Projection

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PLAAF Limitations

Mostly Obsolete Mostly Obsolete Reliance on Foreign AcqsReliance on Foreign Acqs Highly Centralized ContrlHighly Centralized Contrl Minimal Joint OperationsMinimal Joint Operations Limited Power ProjectionLimited Power Projection

Limited AWACS Limited AWACS Limited air refueling Limited air refueling Minimal heavy airliftMinimal heavy airlift

Unrealistic TrainingUnrealistic Training

F-8II

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PLAAF Trends

Aircraft Modernization Aircraft Modernization SU-27/SU-30s, F-10, BVR SU-27/SU-30s, F-10, BVR

Missile ModernizationMissile Modernization PL-12, AA-10, AA-11, AA-12PL-12, AA-10, AA-11, AA-12

Tactics ModernizationTactics Modernization Joint Force DevelopmentJoint Force Development Airborne C2Airborne C2 UAVs & Cruise MissilesUAVs & Cruise Missiles

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2D Artillery Force Organization

90,000 Personnel90,000 Personnel

6 Ballistic Missile Div 6 Ballistic Missile Div

1 EW Division1 EW Division

CMC Chair has Direct Wartime ControlCMC Chair has Direct Wartime Control

GSD has Peacetime Ops ControlGSD has Peacetime Ops Control

Mission: PLA’s Force for Nuclear and Conv Ballistic MissilesMission: PLA’s Force for Nuclear and Conv Ballistic Missiles

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2D Artillery Force Capabilities

Nuclear ICBMs 50+ missilesNuclear ICBMs 50+ missiles Nuclear MRBMs 35+ missilesNuclear MRBMs 35+ missiles Conv/Nuc SRBMs ~ 700 missilesConv/Nuc SRBMs ~ 700 missiles Nuclear SLBM 12 missilesNuclear SLBM 12 missiles LACMs UnkLACMs Unk

CSS-6

CSS-7

CSS-2

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Military-to-Military Engagement Objectives

“Transparency” – “Responsible Stakeholder”

Reduce Uncertainty

Prevent Miscalculation

Promote Trust

Enhance Mutual Understanding Specific Goals

Dissuade/Deter Cross Taiwan Strait Crisis

Develop Regional Security Environment Adhere to NDAA Restrictions

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Summary

China’s fundamental elements of durable national China’s fundamental elements of durable national power cannot sustain peer competition with U.S. power cannot sustain peer competition with U.S.

Leadership is critical to all use of instruments of Leadership is critical to all use of instruments of national power – dictatorship will continuenational power – dictatorship will continue

PLA, as instrument of national power, must PLA, as instrument of national power, must project enough power to protect Chinese interests project enough power to protect Chinese interests beyond littoral beyond littoral

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Conclusion

““Change? Just downtown Beijing and Change? Just downtown Beijing and some of the suburbs.” – Mao Ze Dengsome of the suburbs.” – Mao Ze Deng

War in the next 30 years would be the War in the next 30 years would be the result of mistakes and miscalculationresult of mistakes and miscalculation

““But, why would I tell you what I was But, why would I tell you what I was really thinking?”really thinking?”

A Perspective From China

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