ELENI DESPOTOUDEPUTY SECRETARY GENERAL

Lisbon, 8 February 2010

A PART OF OUR FUTURE

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Overview

1. Who’s EPIA ?

2. Competitiveness of PV

3. Impact on Regional Development

4. Solar Europe Industry Initiative

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Created in 1985

More than 208 members

Represents the whole value chain of the Photovoltaic Industry

Secretariat in Brussels - 17 people in 2009

8 Board members elected for 4 years

Who is EPIA?

EPIA is the world's largest industry association devoted to

the solar electricity market.

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EPIA and its members

• Silicon feedstock: Wacker, REC, DC Chemical…• Wafers and Ingots: Crystalox, Scanwafer, Pillar, Podolsky, PV Silicon…• Cells: Q-Cells, BP Solar, Isofoton, Shell Solar, SolarWorld, Sharp…• Modules: Aleo, Schott Solar, Photowatt, Suntech Power…• Systems: Tenesol, Naps Systems, Conergy, Phoenix …• Inverters: KACO, SMA, Sputnik, Sunways, Fronius…• Cabling: Multi-contact…• Equipment and services: AMAT, Centrotherm, Oerlikon, Stangl, IB Vogt, M+W Zander, Vesuvius…

EPIA represents 95% of the European photovoltaic industry,

and 80% of the global photovoltaic industry world-wide

Total Turnover of EPIA members (2008): ~14.000 M€

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Applications

Source: Fraunhofer ISE

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Skylights

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Finite resources

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Climate Change

1. Depending on the energy mix replaced by PV, each kWh

generated can save up to 900g of CO2 (coal fired power

plants).

2. 12% of PV electricity in Europe by 2020 can save up to

220 millions metric tons of CO2 each year.

Munich, 28/10/2009 TITLE OF THE PRESENTATION

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Overview

1. Who’s EPIA ?

2. PV Market Outlook

3. Competitiveness of PV

4. Impact on Regional Development

5. Solar Europe Industry Initiative

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PV represented 19% of new EU capacity installations in 2008

Source: Platts, EPIA, EWEA

Source: Platts, EPIA, EWEA

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EU vs. Global

Source: EPIA, 2009

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European annual PV market Outlook until 2013 (Policy-Driven scenario)

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Historical development of Global Cumulative PV power installed per Region

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2009 AND 2010 ESTIMATES

Country Market figure 2009 Market figure 2010 CommentsGermany 2.7- 3.0 GW 2 GW – 3GW Possible changes in

policy in 2010

Italy 400 – 500 MW 600 MW EPIA estimates

France 200 – 280 MW 450 – 600 MW 2009: with off-grid systems.

Belgium 320 MW

Spain 60 - 100 MW 400 MW EPIA+ASIF estimates

Czech Rep. 420 MW 1-2 GW If FiT law remains as it is

Greece 66 MW Law under preparation

USA 400 MW (240 MW CA) > 600MW SEIA estimates

Japan 400 MW 100 - 400MW Unclear policy for 2010.

China 100– 460 MW 380 - 1 GW Various sources indicates various results

Total World ~ 6 GW 7-9 GW Source: Pv-tech, EPIA

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PV observatory

1. Market Comparison2. Financial Support schemes3. Administrative barriers4. Grid Connection

Munich, 28/10/2009 TITLE OF THE PRESENTATION

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Overview

1. Who’s EPIA ?

2. PV Market Outlook

3. Competitiveness of PV

4. Impact on Regional Development

5. Solar Europe Industry Initiative

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Indicative

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

3 PV deployment scenarios in Europe1

GW

p

PV deployment scenarios in Europe1) (GWp )

1) Europe 27, Croatia, Norway and TurkeySources: EPIA, EU DG TREN “European Energy and Transport: trends to 2030, update 2007”, Eurostat Data Portal,

EU JRC Photovoltaic Geographical Information System, A.T. Kearney analysis

Asymptote without paradigm shift

Possible evolution after Paradigm Shift

Scenario 3Scenario 2Scenario 1

The Paradigm Shift requires significant changes in the

existing electricity system and at market and regulatory level,

together with a strong collaboration with other players in the energy

sector 12%

6%

4%

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3 PV deployment scenarios

1. Scenario 1) Baseline - 4% penetration: this PV penetration does not require changes to the existing electricity system, it requires full cooperation from the whole industry to achieve price reductions and the definition of a good market strategy

2. Scenario 2) Accelerated Growth - 6% penetration : this PV penetration requires minor changes to the existing electricity system, it requires the industry to optimize their Supply Chain, to cooperate with the Utilities on infrastructure changes and compelling product and service offering

3. Scenario 3) Paradigm Shift - 12% penetration: this PV penetration assumes important changes at market, regulatory and utility level, together with significant technology advancements in the electricity system, that free PV penetration from the risk of producing more electricity than the current system can absorb

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In order to sustain a large PV deployment, the PV industry will need to deliver between 70 and 160 GWp p.a. WW by 2020 depending on the scenario

Worldwide1 annual PV installation (GWp )

1)The analysis assumes 33% of cumulative installation by 2020 in Europe in the Baseline Scenario; 43% in Accelerated Growth Scenario; 55% in Paradigm Shift Sources: EPIA, A.T. Kearney analysis

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Overview of main Feed-in Tariff and Green certificate schemes in Europe

Country Main support scheme

Ground mounted

BIPV BAPV Duration Cap Cumulative PV Power installed (end 2008)

France FiT 0.32 - 0.43 0.60 0.32 - 0.43 20 - 87 MWGermany FiT 0.32 0.33 – 0.43 20 - 5,308 MWItaly FiT 0.35 – 0.39 0.43 – 0.48 0.39 - 0.43 20 1200 MW 430 MWSwitzerland FiT 0.30 - 0.40 0.38 - 0.56 0.37 - 0.46 25 16 Mio CHF 46 MWAustria FiT 0.30 - 0.46 10+1+1 3.3 MW/year 30 MW

Belgium GCBrussels: 0.15 - 0.65Wallonia: 0.15 - 0.63

Flanders: 0.45

Brussels 10Wallonia 15Flanders : 20

- 71 MW

Bulgaria FiT 0.38 - 0.42 25 - 1.4 MWCzeck Republic FiT 0.48 - 0.49 20 - 54 MW

Greece FiT 0.40 - 0.50 20 - 20 MWLuxembourg FiT 0.36 - 0.39 15 5MW 24 MWNetherlands FiT 0.29 15 15 MW (2009) 59 MWPortugal FiT 0.62 5+10 12 MW 68 MWRomania GC 0.11 – 0.22 10 0.45 MWSlovenia FiT 0.33 - 0.37 5+5+10 - 2.1 MW

Spain FiT 0.32 – 0.34 25 500 MW (2009) 3,137 MW

UK GC 0.03-0.06 lifetime 24.1 MW

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Overview

1. Who’s EPIA ?

2. Competitiveness of PV

3. Impact on Regional Development

4. Solar Europe Industry Initiative

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PV as a driver for regional development

1. Saxony Anhalt, DE

2. Puglia, IT

3. Poitou – Charentes, FR

4. Rhone Alpes, FR

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Employment

Ingots/WaferFeedstock/materials Solar cell Solar module BOS including Installation

• Physics• Chemists• Electronic Engineers• Production Engineers

• Installers• Retailers• Service Engineers

• Physics• Electronic Engineers• Production Engineers

Value Chain

Profiles needed

Mn FTE created1)

1) Does not take into account FTEs displaced in other industriesSources: Freiburg university PV employment study; EPIA Solar Generation V 2008; A.T. Kearney analysis

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Employment

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Overview

1. Who’s EPIA ?

2. Competitiveness of PV

3. Impact on Regional Development

4. Solar Europe Industry Initiative

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List of projects proposed for the SET Plan

1. EU Solar Cities: Large-scale integration of PV in urban areas

2. Gigawatt PV manufacturing (GigaFabs and accompanying pilots) and integral value chain management

3. Environmental sustainability of large-scale deployment of PV

4. Education in support of large-scale PV deployment, and public awareness

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2010PV electricity pricePV electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)

0.350.35

0.250.25

0.290.29

0.220.22

0.190.19

PV electricity prices

compared withexpected

consumerelectricity

prices(+ 1%/yr)

consumer electricity priceconsumer electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)

0.150.150.170.17

0.170.17

0.210.21

0.110.11

0.230.23

0.130.13

0.110.11

source: EUPVTP

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2015PV electricity pricePV electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)

0.250.25

0.180.18

0.210.21

0.160.16

0.140.14

PV electricity prices

compared withexpected

consumerelectricity

prices(+ 1%/yr)

consumer electricity priceconsumer electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)

0.160.160.180.18

0.180.18

0.220.22

0.110.11

0.240.24

0.130.13

0.120.12

source: ECN

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2020PV electricity pricePV electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)

0.200.20

0.140.14

0.170.17

0.130.13

0.110.11

PV electricity prices

compared withexpected

consumerelectricity

prices(+ 1%/yr)

consumer electricity priceconsumer electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)

0.160.160.190.19

0.190.19

0.230.23

0.120.12

0.260.26

0.140.14

0.120.12

source: ECN

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“Solar future is not about fashion, is about survival...”

N. Foster

www.epia.org

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www.epia.orgEleni Despotou Deputy Secretary Generale.despotou@epia.org

Solar Electricity A Part of Our Future